Barack v. McCain

Captain Ed and John Judis of TNR see similar themes in last nights results on the Democratic side - Hillary can't get votes from white males and Barack has trouble getting votes from Hispanics, so either is somewhat vulnerable to McCain.

However, neither deigns to hammer the obvious, so I will.  This is from Mr. Judis:

If the economy plummets, and Iraq goes up in flames, or if there is a conservative revolt against McCain, then Clinton or Obama could win with some ease in November, but if conditions are muddier, and if McCain is able to win over the Republican base, then the Democrats could be in trouble.

Gee - maybe McCain does not need to win over the Republican base.  His best ally here, Ann Coulter notwithstanding, is Hillary.  Is she is the nominee, it is easy to foresee an activated Republican base standing in long lines in rain, snow, or sleet of Biblical proportions in order to vote against the Boss's Wife and her hubby.

Which means that Dem strategists have something to noodle on here, in this rare scenario where one of their candidates is likely to unify and energize the opposition much more than another.  To me, the choice is obvious, but... I am not one of the Bright Lights who thought Kerry was a credible candidate or thinks that, in a year that ought to be easy for the Dems, turning the race into an Affirmative Action Feel-Good Handicap Contest makes a lot of sense.  Oh, well - they couldn't find a credible, interesting, boring middle-aged white guy, so away they went, turning a likely rout into a likely nail-biter.

Dare I Boldly Predict the outcome?  I think Obama will overcome the Dems self-defeating tendencies and emerge as the nominee.  However, the Captain made me laugh with this post, where he ruminates about the likely role of unelected super-delegates, more of which back Hillary and asks this presumably rhetorical question:

Under that scenario [in which Obama leads in elected delegates but the balance of power is held by unelected delegates], would Hillary follow Bowers' suggestion and push the superdelegates to support Obama and concede power? Or will Hillary and Bill lean heavily on them, call in their chits, and fracture the party on the chance that they could unite it afterwards? Given the Clintonian attraction to power, I'd call the latter scenario a lot more likely.

"A lot more likely"?  I'll wait for the sun to rise in the West before I wait for Billary to surrender their belief that they are the best thing for America since... well, really, since Billary.

However, Hillary will put a patina of plausibility on the outcome.  Bolstered by the superdelegates her convention majority will vote to seat the "elected" delegates form the verboten but not forgotten primaries of Florida and Michigan.  This boost to Billary's "elected" delegate will, if the math works, allow her to claim a majority if elected delegates and hence a mandate.

Picture McCain running against that sort of a fissured Dem Party.  OK, the picture ends with McCain raising his right hand on Jan 20, and not every conservative loves that.  But it does not end with Hillary raising her right hand, unless it is to smack some hapless staffer or hubby.

Far from over.

MORE:  Let's hear from some pollsters:

Sen. John McCain, who took a major step last night toward locking down the Republican nomination, matches up in a general election far better against Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton than Sen. Barack Obama, according to election strategists and pollsters.

"With Hillary Clinton, John McCain would start as a very moderate favorite," pollster Scott Rasmussen said. "McCain would have the edge among independent voters. He is viewed very favorably by independents and Senator Clinton struggles in that area."

Pollster John Zogby agreed, saying, "Obama does better against McCain than Hillary does because she is so polarizing. ... A lot of people will simply be voting against her."

The senator from Arizona beats the senator from New York in 14 of 17 head-to-head polls taken since Dec. 6, but he wins just five of 17 against the senator from Illinois over the same period. Analysts say Mrs. Clinton is so divisive that she would drive moderates and some independents to Mr. McCain. Mr. Obama, conversely, could draw from the pool of supporters who have delivered wins to Mr. McCain in a host of presidential primaries.

"Hillary Clinton will help drive conservatives and independents McCain's way overnight," said Republican strategist Scott Reed. "I believe that would be a more attractive race for Republicans."

Demos who want a change can unite with Dems who want a victory.

Comments

[clarice]

Thats how I see it, too, TM.
(Off to Pilates lesson to see if stretched fat can pass as muscle. Pls try to keep new threads down to a doen or more in the next couple hours so I won't be helplessly lost.)

[Old Dad]

Here's how to rally the GOP base. Envision:

1. Four years of the cackle.
2. Bill in the Lincoln bedroom.
3. A platoon of Ruth Bader Ginsburgs on the court.
4. A nice juicy tax increase.
5. Socialized medicine.
6. A smoking crater where a US city used to be.

[TexasToast]

Old Dad

Is this the Republican version of the "Politics of Hope"?

[Other Tom]

Some discussion over at RCP along the lines of a deadlock being resolved by the superdelegates who, in return for putting Hillary over the top, will require her to choose Obama as her running mate. Seems that would be a well nigh unbeatable ticket. I'm wondering whether Obama, with his long and bright future, would take the offer. Anybody who takes the VP spot with Hillary is going to be figuratively cuckolded from the moment he is sworn in.

I'm uncertain who will ultimately decide whether the Michigan and Florida delegates get seated. Is it the DNC, and if so, does that mean Howard Dean unilaterally?

If you look at Dem vs. GOP turnout thus far, this figures to be a Democrat rout no matter what. Not good for the country in the short term, but it will ultimately provide a very sobering reminder of how soulless and corrupt the Clintons--both of them--really are.

And no one can keep us from dreaming, so how about a scenario where the party clearly screws Obama out of the nomination, and he runs a third-party campaign? (Hint: ain't gonna happen.)

[Other Tom]

I gather from what TM has said that the decision on seating the two disputed delegations will be made by the already-seated delegates--right?

[dan]

There is, of course, another side to the rise of McCain to head a fractured party.

While many McCain defenders are calling for us who have felt insulted and betrayed by Mac to 'give him another look', we'll also be taking another gander at Hillary.

Obama - well, he's an inspirational speaker, blank slate, etc. His policies are standard liberal boilerplate, taken out of the 60's.

But Hillary would bear really looking at, and it's not inconceivable that all of us who are being asked to 'give him another chance' will find less to object to in a Hillary who has the cold calculating heart of stone, especially when compared to a McCain who seems all to happy to give his party compatriots the tongue of acid.

[Sue]

OT,

The turnout difference is a problem, but not when you consider who we have on the ticket and who the dems have on the ticket. Obama is inspiring everyone and Hillary inspires women. We inspire no one with McCain. Not even those who support him are inspired. There is not a damn thing republicans can do at this point but hope the Hildabeast wins the nod, Obama gracefully declines, and Independents vote for McCain.

[Paul]

Our only hope is Hillary. Too many anti-McCain Repubs will sit out the election or even vote for Obama if he's the candidate.

Texas Twit- No. It's the politics of doom if the Dem-socialists finally get their chance to ruin this country for good, either as misguided useful idiots or out of deliberate malice towards America. I have met scores of the latter out here in the Bay Area and their presence in the media and academia is no secret.

[Rick Ballard]

"There is not a damn thing republicans can do at this point but hope the Hildabeast wins the nod"

That's not exactly true, Sue. There are about fifty House seats that are well worth examining to determine which candidates should be backed with time and money. Same thing goes for about ten Senate seats and a few governorships.

Booting Lampson, Mahoney, McNerney and Griffiths will be a pleasure for the people of TX, FL, CA and AZ for starters. McCain will provide some entertainment as he cavils and bends but he'll also pick up some support if he does so quickly and convincingly. After all, it's not as if he's bound by iron principles.

Has Lampson's opponent been determined?

[section9]

Obama will NEVER, EVER make the mistake of becoming Hillary's poodle. He knows that towards that path lies an eternal path of irrelavance and Goredom.

Obama will go back and become Governor of Illinois in prep for his next time out after the Machine turns him back.

[Ric Locke]

Ain't gonna happen.

McCain got where he is because he got favorable attention from the Press, and he got that because they see him for what he is -- a very slightly left-of-center Democrat running under a false flag.

When everything comes clear and there is an opponent with a (D) after the name, the reversal will make the "moonshiner's turn" look like careful driving. McCain will be savaged at every turn, when anything about him is considered newsworthy in the first place. After six months, no independent or "mainstream Republican" voter will have heard anything about McCain that isn't negative for the entire period.

Result: a Democrat elected, which was the goal in the first place.

Regards,
Ric

[Sue]

Rick,

I stand corrected in that regard, but stand uncorrected in there is nothing we can do about the presidential race in 08. Not at this point.

I'm with you on shoring up both houses, but without a strong candidate on the presidential ticket, I fear our defeat in both houses will be a landslide.

[hrtshpdbox]

"the reversal will make the "moonshiner's turn" look like careful driving."
Nice line.

Another thing to do is encourage Robomney to stop spending his money, and to back Huckabee in the remaining primaries. Huck is much more conservative than McCain,and people like to vote for him; it won't kill litmus-testers to have a president who cares a little bit about education and infrastructure, or who doesn't want to solve the immigration problem by shooting to kill.

[Other Tom]

To all my fellow conservatives who bemoan the fact that McCain will be the nominee, let me suggest that the aternative was to run a conservative who could beat him. There aren't any. That's deplorable, but it's true. And it's idle to blame the "MSM"--first, the MSM despised Reagan and he won 49 states; second, the MSM is far, far less influential now than it was then.

The cold, hard fact is that we thought Fred was the guy, but he wasn't. And either of the two guys left to compete with McCain would cause a greater electoral disaster than Goldwater, with none of the upside. Any conservative--or any other Republican--who thinks the country would be better off with Hillary as president than McCain should by all means vote for Hillary. But it's a bit unseemly to whine about the fact that McCain has (just about) won the nomination. Nobody in the GOP was able to beat him. That's where we are today.

[Jane]

OT,

Could you give McCain a call and tell him to under no circumstances ask the Huckster to be his VP.

Thanks.

[abc]

OT,

The Credential Committee's leader's have been announced. Hint: Two of the three are former Clinton admin officials.

The 161 members will be selected (elected?) by each state's delegation, which should include their superdelegates.

[MayBee]

Ooh, I really don't want Huck to be VP.

As for OT's point, that's where my thoughts are too. Who is this other guy that is more conservative than McCain that's going to bring all Republicans together?
The guys I loved most went unloved by most.
Romney isn't getting the votes.
Bill Frist was the great hope once, remember?

I don't know, we've spent all this time chuckling at Kos because he believes his leftward movement owns the Dems, when in reality they can't win an election. Haven't we learned anything?

[Syl]

I'm sick of the hate around here. This isn't even a shadow of Reagan's party anymore.

And I've got news for you. I've made my decision. I'm voting for Huck next Tuesday.

choke on that.

No f'n body is good enough for you silly people. You're all anti-this, anti-that. How the heck do you sleep at night?

You're all supposedly grown ups well, start frickin' acting light it.

sheesh.

[Sue]

No f'n body is good enough for you silly people.

I have a president I voted for that is better than "good enough" for me. I was perfectly fine with Guiliani, Thompson, Romney. They were "good enough" for me. Because I don't like and won't support Huck and I don't like and don't support McCain (who btw doesn't like and would never support me) I'm silly? Well, no f'n body is going to tell me who is "good enough" just because they have an R after their name.

[Sue]

I didn't realize anyone was trying to talk Syl out of voting for Huck. Who around here is going to choke because she did?

[clarice]

abc, that's a useful bit of information. Thanks.

[MayBee]

Syl, I think Huck seems like a personally great guy. I'm just not for him, like I'm not for lots of guys.
I really like McCain, although he is my third love. You and I are lucky, I guess, that we have found someone we are happy to vote for and seems to have a chance in this thing.

[bio mom]

No reason for McCain to make Huck VP. Rs will win the South even in this bad environment. He needs a good conservative or governonr from a swing state not in the South.

My biggest worry about McCain is his temperament. For many voters who don't pay that much attention he is just a name they recognize or see interviewed on cable news shows. But if he gets into the debates with the Dem candidate, his short fuse and inability to deal with criticism well will be on display. He will come off as arrogant and surly as he did in that last debate. That will turn off the independent voters.

[Jane]

To me Huck is a religious Bill Clinton. He'll say one thing in the morning in Arkansas and say the exact opposite thing in the afternoon in Delaware. He's gonna deport 12 million illegals in 60 days, but he will give them all instate tuition. He lowered taxes constantly as governor except when he raised them to record levels, except it wasn't his fault.

I don't understand how anyone who has paid a whit of attention could vote for him, but hey, they loved Bill Clinton for the same behavior. I'm clearly not on the same page as most of the electorate.

[clarice]

I liked the deportation promise, Jane. As Fred Barnes said it would be an even greater military feat than The Battle of the Bulge.

[clarice]

BTW, If you're interested a FIFTH cable in the M.E. (one to the UAE) has now been mysteriously severed.

[Other Tom]

Huck is a mystery to me as well. I really can't see McCain picking him, and agree that a conservative swing-state governor would be the ideal. What about that guy who was so great as gov. of Colorado (so great that I can't remember his name)?

I agree McCain has major temperament problems, and I really don't see how he can lead as president. Maybe it's time to forget about all this stuff--I've got a great life going, never have to work another minute, no tax increase can really affect me at all, and my heirs not very much. So let someone else screw everything up. The people who've been whining for the government to help them for the past seventy years are still whining, and they'll whine forever, and the government will never improve their lives one whit.

The three-Martini lunch looms...(cue "Ground Control to Other Tom...Ground Control to Other Tom...)

[Sue]

In a week 5 cables are cut? Something is going on.

[Topsecretk9]

OT -

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTk4ZTZkY2IwYzc1OGVmZjAxN2U2ZTAzN2Q4MmFmN2I=

Liberal rats on Hillary - and Ted Kennedy

He goes on to explain that Hillary's efforts to deny Nixon "representation by counsel," a basic right in our system of law, had to do with her patron, Senator Kennedy. It was known that, as part of his defense Nixon would argue that his after the fact knowledge of the Watergate break-in paled in comparison to J.F.K.'s activities, including "using the Mafia to attempt to kill Castro, successfully assassinating both Patrice Lamumba of the Congo, and Diem of South Vietnam." Teddy did not want a sitting president to make that case.

Clinton was also helpful in creating delays, in an attempt to keep Nixon in office and bleeding as long as possible. Apparently Kennedy and (his personal lawyer ) Marshall were convinced that a very liberal Democrat could win in 1976 if Nixon were still in office. They didn't want to see him resign too quickly. Hillary was helpful there, too, in subverting the instructions from her boss, Zeifman, and his boss, Tip O"Neill. O'Neill was especially concerned that no rules be changed and that the law be scrupulously observed. Hillary ignored him.

This story rings so true because we have all seen this behavior from her. Is it characteristic for Hillary to disregard legal niceties in pursuit of her higher personal code of justice/vengeance/personal advantage (and in pursuit of helping abused women and children...)? Did she do that in her First Lady years, with regard to Whitewater; the FBI files of Republicans that ended up in her offices; lucrative commodities deals: the travel office scandal; bimbo erruptions; and all the rest. Does a leopard change her spots?

[clarice]

What..are you one of those conspiracy nuts, Sue? Shit happens. %^)

[Topsecretk9]

My own reaction was of regret that, when I terminated her employment on the Nixon impeachment staff, I had not reported her unethical practices to the appropriate bar associations.

http://www.aim.org/aim-column/hillarys-crocodile-tears-in-connecticut

[Sue]

What..are you one of those conspiracy nuts, Sue?

Yeah. I like conspiracies until it is beyond impossible for the conspiracy to work. I'm good ground so far. A week is early in a conspiracy nuts life.

[Sue]

I'm good ground so far.

I have no idea what I originally wanted to say here. Make of it what you will. ::grin::

[clarice]

Something's up there, but what?

[Topsecretk9]

On my Hill kick - via Gatewaypundit, via Insty

One of Hillary's "Hillraisers"

Hillary Clinton has recently employed Mehmet Celebi, a Turkish ultra-nationalist - who has worked on and raised money for various anti-American, anti-Armenian, anti-Semitic and anti-Kurdish projects - as one of her delegates for her campaign for President of the United States.

This is not surprising when knowing that the Clinton Administration has been one of the most pro-Turkish U.S. administrations in the history of the U.S. donating more military arms to Turkey than all the other U.S. presidents combined.

and

Mehmet Celebi co-owns BMH Worldwide, which produced "Valley of the Wolves-Irak." Mehmet Celebi is a Hillraiser for the Clintons. Hillary Clinton accepted over $100,000 from this Holocaust denier.

Oh Sibel...ahem...where are you?

[clarice]

One report has the Clintons expressing a willingness to dip into their own substantial resources to fund her campaign if necessary. They'll take it from everyone else first, though..no matter who.

[Topsecretk9]

Celebi, who led Chicago-based the Turkish American Cultural Alliance (TACA) during a time Vanity Fair magazine claimed the local Turkish community was under FBI counterintelligence surveillance, is an up and coming movie producer. He co-owns BMH Worldwide, which produced Valley of the Wolves-Irak. The movie is based on a popular T.V. series in Turkey and has been subject of much controversy in Europe. It has not been widely distributed in the United States, but the DVD can be rented from Blockbuster Online. Celebi also appears to be moving up in political circles in the U.S., though it is not known how close he is to Clinton...

...The Administration of Clinton’s husband, Bill, was seen as one of the most pro-Turkish Administrations in recent history. The Clinton Administration ensured transfers of arms to Turkey during its “dirty war” against the Kurds, despite pressure from the U.S. Congress to cutoff or put conditions on such sales. Although her husband lobbied former House Speaker Dennis Hastert against make an Armenian Genocide Resolution in 2000, Hillary Clinton officially expressed support for such a resolution earlier this year.

http://www.libertypost.org/cgi-bin/readart.cgi?ArtNum=209252

[Sue]

Clarice,

Maybe it's the beginning of Richard Clarke's cyber war?

[MayBee]

clarice- MSNBC just reported Hillary loaned her campaign $5 million last month

[Syl]

Why Huck?

Since you've explained to me that McCain is the worst.ever.possible choice for nominee, someone who hates and insults you all, who is a traitor to the party because he doesn't share every single one of your views, who can't win because you won't vote for him no matter what, I decided to hell with it.

I might as well vote for someone I actually like and who makes me smile.

Besides, many here would tell the social cons to suck it up if the nominee were rudy, so I guess I'll return the favor EVEN THOUGH I'M NOT A SOCIAL CON. No, I don't understand it myself. I just think fair is fair.

[clarice]

Syl, I think you're turned off by what seems to be a certain social class snobbery. As I say those who consider him an artless rube, haven't been listening. He's a very skilled pol.

[JM Hanes]

MayBee:

She's probably chargin' her war chest über interest too, because, of course, rates won't be frozen till Day One.

[clarice]

Commenting on an article by vanderhei on Hill, Lucianne notes"Hillary already has a flash e-mailer out saying she won (she didn't) has the most delegates (she doesn't) and needs 3 million in the next 72 hours.(That's probably true.) "

[MayBee]

Ha, JMH!

Definitely a sub-prime loan.

[MayBee]

If I were her opponent, this $5 mill loan would be the trigger to get me asking where all the money she and Bill have comes from.

[Syl]

clarice

::hugs::

(No I don't agree with Huck on a LOT of things)

[clarice]

Well, since we are on the subject of campaign money, I did read that McCain was going to forego federal funding for privately raised funds because he says he needs that. HEH

[Syl]

On to something completely different...

RUN, don't walk...

Check Iran

I think this is significant!!

[MayBee]

Oh heavens, Hillary just said that DC should be a state.

[Syl]

Do you think Iran cut off its own people from the internet?

[bgates]

I might as well vote for someone I actually like and who makes me smile.
Might as well. The alternative would be to consider the candidates' positions and character and determine who would best execute the office of President in line with the Constitution and your own view of what America should be.

But that would mean you'd have less time to tell everyone else to frikkin' act like grown ups.

[GMax]

Syl

Go right ahead, its what makes this country a great place. He wont win another state out of the South, but if you like him go for it.

I have already sucked it up, I will be voting McCain and hoping he has a tailwind and some coattails and we can drag Pelosi out of the Speakers office kicking and screaming. He is not perfect, or even close, but he will be the nominee and I am certain on his worst day he will be better than the socialists.

[syn]

Back in 1999 I admit I wasn't involved that much in politics but from what I have heard from Conservatives who were involved, one reason why they're so angry today about a McCain or a Huckabee is that back in 1999 they were told that they had better crawl over glass to ensure a Republican in the White House and a Gore defeat.

9/11/2001 obviously changed the political landscape in America and President Bush, who despite his Big Government expansion platform in 2000, campained on the promise of perscription drug plan, guest worker program and No Child Left Behind, had changed as well when he adopted a bold new approach towards dealing with an old and dangerous problem.

Unfortuantely, only half of the American landscape was on board with Bush's bold approach which within a couple months after the attack on 9/11/2001 soiled America's shining light on the hill with a great deal of hate and rancor from not only the poltician's but from media and entertainment.

After all the hits and hatred towards Conservatives who have been the backbone of support of the war efforts despite Bush's expansive Big Government, they are no being asked to crawl through glass once again to 'insure a Republican gets in the WHite House' only instead of being told to fear Gore they're being told to fear Clinton.

I do not believe this tactic of pushing certain candidates over others is going to work in this next election.

[whatever]

> Is she is the nominee, it is easy to
> foresee an activated Republican base

Uh, no.

Wife and I are die-hard conservatives, and we MUCH prefer Hillary than Obama - the devil you know instead of some blank slate with no experience.

So our pickes are:

Hillary vs. McCain - Vote Hillary
Obama vs. McCain - Vote McCain

I have never voted democratic anything in my life - including dog catcher - but the McCain is a centrist democrat, not republican, and won't get our vote unless we get afraid.

[clarice]

Yes,Syl. Iran's been cut off the IT? But was it deliberate? By whom?

[Sue]

Hmmm, I don't know why I didn't think of this...

As noted earlier, almost as if by some magical coincidence Israel and US-occupied Iraq have not been affected while these other nations are scrambling to get the lights turned back on, something adding even more reason for raised eyebrows amongst skeptical people.

...

The gulf countries were recently visited by George Bush who tried–unsuccessfully–to rally them around support for renewed pressure on a recalcitrant Iran

...

There are other possibilities as well. Since it is an established fact that the Jewish state plans on eventually absorbing as much of the oil-rich land in that region as possible for herself in the interests of fulfilling the biblical idea of ‘Greater Israel’

I automatically went another direction with my conspiracy. Damn...these people are gooood.

http://theuglytruth.wordpress.com/2008/02/05/internet-cables-cut-prelude-to-war-or-simply-a-warning/>Source

[syn]

That said, I'm sure Mike Huckabee is well-intentioned however I am not at all impressed by his notion that he can 'take back the nation for Christ'.

I have never believed that God was ever run out of America and never believed that the only people defending Christ are Baptists.

Plus, his idea that the Government has forgotten his Church members appears to me as if he believes the Government should be in the business of mandating his God; religion is a very personal thing which has no place being mandated by politicians.

I would imagine that Baptists would be just as concerned if they were to hear an Iman stating that if elected he would 'take the Nation for Allah.'

I actually support many of the social conservative issues, I understand what they are saying however, I won't support these issues if it means my giving up 'my rights endowed by my creator'.

I am hopeful that such a fierce debate is happening in our country; I'd be really freaked if we were not.

[Other Tom]

God, what a wonderful lunch. You shoulda seen that waitress's butt. Z-z-z-z-z-z...

[clarice]

THWACK!!!!!!

[centralcal]

Syl: The Iran thing - no internet - are there any news stories on this right now?

[Syl]

Yes,Syl. Iran's been cut off the IT? But was it deliberate? By whom?

I didn't realize Iran was totally and 100% cut off. Whoooooeeeee.

I imagine it's not possible to merely isolate one country without affecting others. But this looks almost surgical. Could chance do that?

Would Iran know which cables to affect?

On the other hand, in the other countries rerouting occurred. If none happened in Iran, then Iran wants it kept this way and they probably did it to themselves.

[MayBee]

What is the top paycheck you think Bill or Hillary ever got as part of a salary? The $250,000 he made as president?
No wonder our government people are always talking about raising taxes on the "wealthy" when the mean the upper middle class working people. They find themselves with lots o' cash to spare while making these salaries. She earns $162,500/year as a senator, and yet has $5million laying aroud for her rainy day fund. Obviously, people making $162,500 don't pay enough taxes!

[MayBee]

Syl- rerouting occurred? Did it have to be re-routed through some friendlier servers?

[Syl]

syn

You know what? I think you should run for public office. Tell rush to do so also.

It's not as if you didn't have a vote. Now you want your vote to count more than others.

It's blackmail pure and simple.

[Syl]

Maybee

I don't actually know how rerouting works and how much is automaric and who is responsible. I think it has to do with the carriers themselves.

[hit and run]

Clarice:
Off to Pilates lesson to see if stretched fat can pass as muscle. Pls try to keep new threads down to a doen or more in the next couple hours so I won't be helplessly lost.

You know. I've spent the last 3 days traveling to make a one hour presentation. All I had was my blackberry to try and keep pace at JOM. Not easy.

During that time? TM put up only two posts.

I get back this morning? TM puts up four posts today.

First, thank you, TM.

Second, I Question the Timing.

[clarice]

Skip that drivel, Hit. The big question of the day--Can stretched fat pass as muscle?

[hit and run]

Well, you've obviously been to pilates and are back.

Where's the after action report?

[Corey Cronrath]

This has been a very even handed and fair assessment of where we are now as a movement and a party. I'd just like to remind everyone(except Ann Coulter, good riddance) that we are a breath away from having the Supreme Court we've been fighting for for a generation, and we are still at war. We also have high deficits, and we need a leader to address Social Security and other entitlements. I believe John McCain is that leader. McCain in '08!

[clarice]

AA Report--it works, and if it doesn't, that pilates eqpt will surely inspire lots of intriguing sex fantasies, Hit. Just saying.

[sylvia]

One thing I have been wondering about. The Conservative base doesn't seem to like McCain, but mostly only the base is engergetic enough to turn out and vote in the primaries. So who voted for McCain?

I know in certain states, you can register as an "Independent" and vote in both Dem and GOP primaries. Were many of the votes in the GOP primaries from registered Republicans or from registered Independents? Was this a sneaky campaign by the Dems to get the most acceptable candidate to the Dems elected, by encouraging them to vote in the GOP primaries?

I would like to see some breakdown of which states allow Independent voting, and what percent of them voted.

[sylvia]

Here's Ron Paul's Web page info:

http://www.ronpaul2008.com/primary-and-caucus-information/

I don't know what safeguards there are in preventing people from double voting in states where you can switch party affiliations on election day.

[vnjagvet]

As I noted on an earlier thread, I did my part yesterday and voted Romney. But Huck won. I haven't seen the internals on who put him over the top, but I suspect that the vast majority of Republican Georgia Baptists (of which there are many) put him over the top.

That group of voters is likely to have a strong antipathy (for different reasons) towards both BHO and RW.

Of course, this analysis only pertains to Georgia, but I believe it probably applies well to other old south states.

My takeaway from this is that Huck may not be the best choice for Veep. A strong, even tempered northeast politican with some executive experience -- e.g. someone like Mike Steele, might be a better choice.

[RichatUF]

TSK9-

Found via LGF and Debbie Schussel, sort of, this link buried at the bottom...FBI translators. IRT to another contract linguist [for the army] has gotten busted for possessing classified info and possibly passing it to the enemy.

So tell me again why Edmonds got a job and clearence so quickly?

[clarice]

Why did Prouty and her sister? There was a NY Sun article today which might have been yanked which indicates we found in a contract translator's home in Brooklyn, top secret docs including our coordinates as to where we thought the WMDs were buried in Iraq.

[PeterUK]

Obama says GOP has the dirt on Hillary

[Rick Ballard]

Vnjagvet,

SBC might be a better descriptor than simply Baptists. Here's a list of states with SBC percentages. There's a reason that McCain became a Baptopalian and I don't believe the Huckster enters into his future plans regarding the ticket.

Steele would go over well with Catholics who actually carry much more weight than Baptists. He would be a big help in OH, PA and MO.

That probably rules him out.

[clarice]

He'd(Steele) be a big help in Md, too--it's a big Catholic state and it's his home state.

[RichatUF]

clarice-

I'm glad the US government turns opaque Islamist groups to recuit muslims. It makes me feel so safe.

[hit and run]

Huck, McCain, Mitt among evangelicals were 43, 27, 28 respectively - and evangelicals were 62% of the voters.

CNN doesn't break it down to get to Baptist.

It was 19, 40, 35 among the 38% of voters who were not evangelical.

[Pofarmer]

or who doesn't want to solve the immigration problem by shooting to kill

As if that were a problem?

[Rick Ballard]

H & R,

They did break down "born agains" occasionally in the exit polls. That's SBC plus the "SBC Lights" such as Rick Warren. It wouldn't include the Willow Laker's or Alpha evangelicals - or any 'reading' Baptists either.

Clarice,

If you take a look at the list under Catholics in my previous comment, it confirms Maryland but WI, MN and MI all have higher percentages of Catholics than does MD.

There is a great deal to be said for Steele as the pick and religion is only one plus. His demonstrated executive ability coupled with his election in a predominantly Dem state might rank higher on the attribute list than would his religion.

[hit and run]

The CNN category is "Born-Again or Evangelical Christian?"

[Rick Ballard]

H & R,

That covers the waterfront. They have a "more than once a week" though too, don't they? That would sift 'em but it would pick up Assemblies as well.

[hit and run]

Rick -- yes and I'm going on memory now, having closed that window. Huck won the more than once a weekers handily, but I believe Mitt won the once a weekers. McCain won the others, except Never, which Mitt also won. No idea on the percentages, though.

[Sue]

I just looked at the site that Syl left above on internet traffic. http://www.internettrafficreport.com/asia.htm>Here it is again so you don't have to scroll back up. Now, not only is Iran at 0, Indonesia is too.

[hit and run]

For me, that site reads Indonesia at "79".

[Sue]

H&R,

It reads 76 for me now. Weird.

[vnjagvet]

Rick:

Thanks for the link. Significantly, in only 8 states are SBCers 20% or more of the population. This surely cuts against the Huckster so far as demographics are concerned.

I have a hunch that the so-called "evangelicals" are a more diverse group than SBCers. Even as consided by (mostly) secular MSM.

For example, I am a lifelong Lutheran and that faith brought my ancestors to the US in the late 17th and early 18th centuries during the many wars in Germany among various religious sects. My gang of ancestors all settled in Lancaster County PA those many moons ago. That county is the hotbed of the Evangelical Protestants who became known as the Pennsylvania Dutch (originally "Deutsch" i.e. German.)

In Germany, Lutherans are among those known as "Die Evangelisch" (contrasted with the "Katholische". In the USA, the denomination to which I belong is now known as the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America or "ELCA".

Interestingly, despite that history, I doubt if those considered by the press to be "evangelicals" include me or other members of my denomination.

[vnjagvet]

Hit and Rick:

I don't think my gang gets classified as evengelical no matter how many times a week we hit the church.

[Porchlight]

I think that site is reporting that a single router in Iran, router1.iust.ac.ir, is at 0, not that the whole country is down. If you look at the index for Europe on the same site, there is a router in Germany at 0 as well.

From the FAQ:

Q: What is a "router?" A: Routers are traffic cop computers on Internet backbones responsible for redirecting data from sender to receiver. When major routers slow down or stop, it has an adverse affect on Internet data flow in that region.

[JM Hanes]

Syl:

"On the other hand, in the other countries rerouting occurred. If none happened in Iran, then Iran wants it kept this way and they probably did it to themselves."

I read somewhere that a big part of the problem is actually the lack of available cable for rerouting. Apparently we have cable breaks in the Atlantic all the time, but since the seabed is a virtual fiberoptic spider's web, nobody ever notices. In contrast, there are something like 5 cables for traffic across the entire middle east, so when a bottleneck blows, traffic comes to a screeching halt.

You could stamp a tectonic bullseye on the eastern Mediterranean, so while I certainly wouldn't dismiss the idea of deliberate sabotage, there do appear to be other plausible possibilities.

[JM Hanes]

vnjagvet:

I may be completely wrong, but I had the impression that the evangelicals in most of the recent polling have been self-identified, not assigned the label on a media designated basis.

[Rick Ballard]

Vnjagvet,

It depends upon the individual church. There are plenty of ELCA churches that would meet evangelical status based upon program emphasis and mission. Same goes for Methodist, Presbyterian and Episcopalian, none of which are considered 'evangelical' by the nitwits in the MSM but all of which have many members who would self identify as evangelicals based upon programmatic emphasis and mission. I'm unsure about ELCA but the others are all involved in schism to some degree and a fair amount of the division has been caused by moribund leadership refusing to deal with the evangelicals within the denomination. Except for collecting head dues, of course.

"More than once a week" just splits out the SBC and a few others. It doesn't really have any meaning regarding evangelicals per se.

[vnjagvet]

I think you are right so far as polls are concerned, JMH. But my impression is that the talking heads have differing ideas on the subject, and thus that the term is imprecise when planning campaigns, and other public opinion work.

Despite the history of my faith, I do not believe I am the type of evangelical the pundits are describing when they use the "evangelical" label. But if I were asked by someone if I belonged to an "evangelical church denomination" and were put under oath, I would have to answer "yes", given the facts noted in my earlier comment.

If not under oath, I would say, "hell no, I'm a Lutheran";>)

[hit and run]

That is true, JMH. But it is interesting that when the media say "evangelicals do this" or "think this" or "act this way" or whatnot -- they do have a picture in mind, perhaps an SBC'er, but more often it's portrayed as the fervent pentecostal, the snake handler, the believer in Kenneth Copeland's ability to heal and to deliver a financial windfall, etc. Versus what is a huge population with many variants as to particular beliefs, lifestyles, etc.

In other words, they try to fit what is a pretty diverse group of people from the standpoint of self-identification into what is a pretty narrow category.

There's a word for that...

------
eh, I see everyone's already ahead of me on this stuff. But I'm hitting post anyway.

[vnjagvet]

Rick:

I also think that the "evangelical" label is sometimes used to describe the charismatic movement. That movement has penetrated liturgical churches, most notaby Anglican/Episcopalian, Lutheran and Roman Catholic. That movement is characterized by some of the more demonstrative practices (e.g. "praise" singing, hand holding, emotional experience sharing, etc.) of non-liturgical churches such as revivalist, pentecostal, free will baptist, and megachurches like Ron Warren's.

Technically, "evangelical" is used to describe churches which give emphasis to "the great commission", Go ye into all the world and preach the Gospel to every living creature. Mark 16:15

[hit and run]

AP HEADLINE: Greedy Republicans block stimulus bill, poor, elderly and disabled veterans hardest hit.

OK, that's not the real headline.

But it's not far off...

Republicans block stimulus bill
By JULIE HIRSCHFELD DAVIS and ANDREW TAYLOR
Associated Press Writers

WASHINGTON - Senate Republicans blocked a move by Democrats on Wednesday to add more than $40 billion in checks for the elderly, disabled veterans and the unemployed to a bill to stimulate the economy.

[anduril]

TSK9-

Found via LGF and Debbie Schussel, sort of, this link buried at the bottom...FBI translators. IRT to another contract linguist [for the army] has gotten busted for possessing classified info and possibly passing it to the enemy.

So tell me again why Edmonds got a job and clearence so quickly?

Posted by: RichatUF | February 06, 2008 at 06:14 PM

Why did Prouty and her sister? There was a NY Sun article today which might have been yanked which indicates we found in a contract translator's home in Brooklyn, top secret docs including our coordinates as to where we thought the WMDs were buried in Iraq.

Posted by: clarice | February 06, 2008 at 06:17 PM

These two posts, by linking Edmonds' name to those of Ames and Prouty--convicted spies--clearly suggest that Edmonds herself may be a spy. Just about anything is possible, which apparently is the theory behind these posts. However, it would be interesting to see some evidence that Edmonds is/was in fact a spy who was tasked to penetrate the FBI. Perhaps the fact that she successfully got herself hired by the FBI and then was bounced from the organization she was tasked to penetrate within six months could somehow be twisted to fit the theory? Getting fired within six months of successfully penetrating the FBI would have pleased her handlers--like she wouldn't have been continually reminded to ingratiate herself and not draw attention to herself!

[Sue]

Drudge is headlining that the Clinton campaign is broke. What happened? Did all her illegal donors dry up?