This exhaustive AP story about the impending Obama-Hillary trench warfare includes this head-scratcher:
The Clinton camp was eager to take the luster off of Obama's status as a "movement candidate" who has generated unprecedented activism and fundraising through the Internet. Clinton strategists went out of their way to label him an "establishment candidate" and worked to pitch her message to online activists.
Hillary wooing the Nutroots? That tired old centrist DLC Dragon Lady thinks she has a chance with this crowd? In Kos reader polls going back a year, Hillarity Clinton maxed out at 11% support last September.
Oh, well - maybe the Clintonistas figure there is lots of room for improvement. Here is an idea - Hillary can not only filibuster FISA reform but personally wrest the bill from Harry Reid, rip it up, and swallow it. Would make a great visual... (Suggested soundbite - "I eat your bill... I eat it up!).
Help me out - time does not permit (nor does patience) but has anyone sensed a shift towards Hillary amongst our blogging friends on the left? Ezra Klein found exactly the opposite among the commentariat elites, which although indicative is not exactly the same thing.
AND IT HAD TO BE A LEAP YEAR: With the current calendar of primaries and caucuses, Hillary may not win another event in February, which makes for a long month PR wise. From the Times:
Clinton advisers sounded especially grim on Wednesday about the upcoming contests, noting Mr. Obama’s advantage with black voters in Louisiana, Maryland and Virginia and with liberals and young voters in Washington State and Wisconsin. They were already looking ahead and budgeting for the March 4 primaries in Ohio and Texas, when nearly 400 delegates will be at stake.
Some of these states are clear losers for Hillary, but I am sure an expectations game is being played here.
Let's see - per CNN on the Democratic side:
Feb 9: Louisiana primaries; Nebraska caucuses; Washington caucuses
Feb 10: Maine caucuses
Feb 12: District of Columbia primaries; Maryland primaries; Virginia primaries
Feb 19: Hawaii caucuses; Washington primaries; Wisconsin primaries
Hmm - not even having looked for polls I would think Hillary could compete in Washington and Wisconsin (although darn those college kids); Obama does well in caucuses but Maine ought to be a good locale for her, so who knows.
As much as I detest the Hildabeast, let's hope she can steal the dem nomination with superdelegates in the ugliest way possible.
An Obama presidency is too frightening to contemplate.
Posted by: Crunchy Frog | February 07, 2008 at 02:35 PM
What Fresh Hill is This? indeed, TM.
If I were Bill or Chelsea, I'd be feeling uncomfortable right now--I think only a devastating family illness--though anorexia is always good for a lot of space in chick mags and on chick shows--will pull her out of the Feb doldrums.Maybe also an intervention by Dr Phil for good measure.
Posted by: clarice | February 07, 2008 at 03:10 PM
I think she is gonna have it thrown to her to avoid a brokered convention. Give her the delegates from Florida and Michigan and it's game set and match.
(I know I keep repeating myself - assume it's my age.)
Posted by: Jane | February 07, 2008 at 03:16 PM
The proportional delegate rules that the Democrats have adopted mean that it is unlikely either candidate will have the needed majority by the convention.
Posted by: Brainster | February 07, 2008 at 03:28 PM
Is anyone watching McCain on Fox? He sure can read a speech.
Posted by: Ann | February 07, 2008 at 03:32 PM
Well my tried and true blue friend ( that is a Democrat in Dallas I know that is a bit rare ) just called to tell me about Mitt. He was pining for the good ole days of the smoke filled convention halls, so I told him he was going to get his wish.
Better yet I reminded him of the Michigan and Florida delegations being stripped of their credentials, and asked him if he thought the Clintons wouldn't find some way to get the delegates seated. His response with a large laugh was " I would not put it past them!"
Now I was laughing. I told him he sure sounded like a Republican right at that point. He laughed and we hung up the phone.
Posted by: GMax | February 07, 2008 at 03:43 PM
Clinton strategists went out of their way to label him an "establishment candidate" and worked to pitch her message to online activists.
I would say the only shift to Hillary made by the netroots was made prior to her actual announcement. She used to be reviled by many, but when Peter Daou set up that luncheon with Bill Clinton, he bought Hillary some neutrality, at least. He is still her online outreach person, so I don't doubt he still reaches out to people to try to plant the message.
There are online activists like Taylor Marsh and Larry Johnson that are ridiculously pro-Clinton, TalkLeft is more honestly pro-Clinton, and Firedoglake seems to be not anti-Clinton.
Posted by: MayBee | February 07, 2008 at 03:45 PM
Gmax, I just had a similarly good-natured discussion with a Dem friend here in Austin. She thinks McCain will be the next president, and is more or less okay with that - better him than Hillary. And she recognizes Obama's weaknesses as a candidate, though she plans to vote for him in the primary, mostly as an anti-Clinton gesture.
I must say, it's nice to be able to talk politics with my Dem friends again. No such conversation was possible in 2004, with Bush hatred being what it was (and is).
Posted by: Porchlight | February 07, 2008 at 03:57 PM
How many times is Hildabeast going to change her campaign persona? First she was the Queen progressing to an inevitable coronation. After Iowa she became the teary, emotional candidate and now she's playing victim. But, victim of what? The vast youth conspiracy? By the end of this campaign she'll have changed he identify more times than she recoifed her hair during the Clinton admin.
Posted by: LindaK | February 07, 2008 at 04:00 PM
Well,porchlight, that was Rush' diabolical plan. He figured if the Dems thought we were really unhappy with our candidate, they'd vote for him.
Posted by: clarice | February 07, 2008 at 04:17 PM
No such conversation was possible in 2004, with Bush hatred being what it was (and is).
If McCain is elected they will suddenly hate him too ...he's be worse that Bush- Dean's little Townhouse mailer is already gearing up the hate.
Recall how much the Dems hated Ashcroft - the second coming of Hitler until Gonzo took over and then the hospital story and suddenly Ashcroft is resurrected as the left's hero and Gonzo is the real hitler.
Democrats love to hate.
Posted by: Topsecretk9 | February 07, 2008 at 04:31 PM
Yes McCain will get Democrat votes. I seriously doubt the Ann Coulter's of the world will really vote for Hill. Obama will get some crossover Rs but a lot of those guys are also going to like McCain a lot better than recent Republican offerings.
McCain stands a lot closer to the center. He does not have a far right Senate voting record and OBama and Hill both do, and in Obama's case its really far left. Perhaps the most liberal member of the Senate. He is going to struggle to not look like a flip flopper if he tries to row away from those votes.
If substance does matter, Obama is more than a little lacking. Change = more prog bs
Posted by: GMax | February 07, 2008 at 04:36 PM
though anorexia is always good
Bill says please send me to visit supermodels and starlets so I can catch it.
Posted by: Ralph L | February 07, 2008 at 04:58 PM
Love the move about the Clinton tax returns; hope he hammers it without mercy. And get started on release of all the library records--there's gotta be a gold mine there.
Posted by: Other Tom | February 07, 2008 at 08:43 PM