I Would Have Bet On This

Corporations adopting prediction markets.  I need to dredge up a link to the terror-related government idea shot down by anti-market Dems.  [OK, this should make a start.]

Comments

[cathyf]

Boys and girls, can you say "Black Sox"? Sure you can!

The problem with markets which predict success or failure of a project is that the obvious ploy is to bet against your project and then make sure that it fails. Success is always hard and frequently elusive; failure is always easy...

[clarice]

Dear Ms. cathyf:
This letter is to introduce the CEO of SCAM, Mr. PUK. He will be getting in touch with you soon because we have been reading your posts with interest and believe you are just what this organization is looking for.

Best,

[VC]

'The Economist' is really Mi5 or Mi6 or whatever is the foreign one.

[Danube of Thought]

I've always been perplexed by these markets and the question of their predictive value. You can't know anything about the people who are buying and selling the contracts, so you have no idea whether their aggregate judgment is better or worse than your own alone.

[Cansi]

Obama is caught in his socialism and he can't find a way out. Colombia won't get a vote because they already screwed them. It's the land socialists rising globally because the Obamasiah is going to be President. Of course, their all corrupt murderers. If it helps; the Maoists did Kerry the same. They never let a 'friend' go. The articles on food revolts are entertaining, but, I think, when they figure out it's the Obamasiah socialist, they might get upset.

The pie story is cool, but we all know socialists believe that it's every one's pie and, when it's every one's pie, socialists hiding in groups sell off the nasty ingredients no one wanted. It's like living on a commune, where you have to put up with other people's shit and that's all part of the cypheria plan to ruin you as a person. The group must pay for one person's games. Just like Bill sold us all out.

The prediction here is the same as it was; Obama can't be President because he believes in shitting in every one's pie. The Obamasiah's kingdom come.

[Aaron]

"You can't know anything about the people who are buying and selling the contracts, so you have no idea whether their aggregate judgment is better or worse than your own alone."

There is a "wisdom of crowds" effect, where if you take the average of the answers from a crowd they tend to be very close to the correct answer, more so than even the experts.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds