If You Read One Long Article

This New York Magazine article by John Heilemann about the Obama/Clinton/McCain race was very well done and had something quotable every third paragraph.  I am going to quite after two.  First, a McCain basher:

[McCain's] awkward positioning issues-wise was captured brilliantly by Pat Buchanan: “The jobs are never coming back, the illegals are never going home, but we’re going to have a lot more wars.”

And a puzzle for Obama:

“McCain has that reformist, maverick history that people identify him with,” says Bush’s former media guru Mark McKinnon, who now plays the same role for McCain. “They know he’s not a typical Republican and has had his issues with the president over time, so they don’t see him as in bed with the president or the Republican Party that they believe has in recent years come to represent the status quo.”

The evidence buttressing McKinnon’s assertion isn’t hard to locate. Among independent voters, according to Gallup, McCain leads Obama by a spread of 42-29 and Clinton by 48-23. And an even more striking sign of his crossover appeal was cited by Karl Rove in a speech he gave last month in Washington. “About twice as many Democrats support McCain as Republicans support Obama, and about three times as many Democrats support McCain as Republicans support Clinton,” Rove said. “The media is all wired up about these ‘Obamacans’ … but the real story of this election is the ‘McCainocrats.’ ”

The article asks whether McCain is the next Bob Dole or the next Dwight Eisenhower, and whether Obama is the next John Kennedy or the next Mike Dukakis.  it went to press too soon to pick up the Ayers story and "Bittergate", but is otherwise excellent.

SPOILER:  Heillemann picks Obama to win it all, based on money (lors versus less of the same), McCain's age (polls indicate more people think McCain is unacceptably old than think Obama is unacceptably black), and the poll-backed belief that the public favors Obama's positions on the war and economy.  In McCain's favor - he is John McCain, genuine American hero, and Obama is Obama.

MORE:  Novak talking sense:

Bob Novak, the highly distinguished veteran columnist and author, told the American Spectator New York dinner group last night that John McCain will defeat Barack Obama in November’s election, although the Democrats will enhance their majorities in both the Senate and the House. Novak, who has covered elections for fifty years, speculated that McCain will pick former Ohio congressman Rob Portman (who also was President Bush’s special trade representative and OMB director) as his running mate, while Obama could choose former Sen. Sam Nunn as his.

Nunn has been rattling around the back of my mind (Nunn, or nothing?  OK...) as a VP pick, although not strongly enough to research it.  Cosmetically, it looks like Dukakis-Bentsen, and I wonder if it is too painfully phoney - Nunn is older, paler, and stronger on national security, which might exaggerate rather than relieve Obama's alternative endowments.

Personally, I completely agree that plenty of Dems will vote for McCain and Democrats downticket, so we will have a semi-divided government.  As my wife said, the Republicans aren't going to win this year, which is why they were smart to nominate McCain.

Comments

[Minor Ripper]

Genius Bob Novak also predicted Fred Thompson would be the Republican nominee.

www.minor-ripper.blogspot.com

[megapotamus]

Sam Nunn has been out of the bigs for years and, unlike Newt, has not made himself into a public intellectual independent of his former elected status. I would like to think that he would decline such an honor but who knows? I haven't heard any public statements from him for a long time but could he be more in the Zell Miller mold than an Obamiac? Jeez, I sure hope so but he's not really varsity anymore in any event.

[Gmax]

Remember when one of the Democrat electors broke with his pledge and cast his vote for Bentsen for President and not Dukakis? Nunn might get more than one vote, as he would be the only adult and only qualified member of the ticket.

[sbw]

Dems downticket recite the same ill-considered, unreasonable claptrap as Obama. Could you hold your nose and vote for Pelosi or Reid? Why should voters support nincompoops downticket if they can't support those at the top?

[Elliott]

What's been rattling around in the back of my head is that Nunn is probably still a member of Augusta National. I don't think Obama could pick him until Hillary is out of the race—think what she could make of "the boys' club" angle—which may be later than he'd like to announce his selection.

[Jane]

You are right Elliott. Now that's an interesting development.

LUN

[Elliott]

I think that USA Today list, like the NYT article is from 2002 so it's conceivable Nunn's no longer a member. The only resignation I remember, though, is John Snow.

I've been wondering about the possibility of Obama offering Hillary the vice-presidency just so she'll stop her own campaign. He'd have to make the overtures very carefully to avoid it backfiring.

[Jane]

She won't take it.

[stan]

Imagine if the voters were told the truth about Iraq and the economy.

Polls right now reflect the attitudes of people who have gotten nothing but Dem talking points for 3 and 1/2 years. Voters "knew" we were in rescession when we were in the midst of record-setting economic growth. They presently "know" that Iraq is a complete disaster.

What happens when the truth comes out? What happens when they learn that AQ is toast, the Iraqis have a democracy, and the Iraqi army is making great strides toward defending the country from Iranian fighters?