Not Nearly As Tedious As Might Be Expected

A self-admitted "complete party rules bore" is not that boring on delegate allocation rules for Republicans and Democrats, explaining why McCain won the nomination, the case for Hillary, and why superdelegates ought to do their job.

I look forward to his piece on estate-planning and life insurance trusts.

Comments

[kim]

Mitt Romney has more on the ball than a media buy.
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[bgates]

Most GOP parties went along with the system used by the Democrats.
Rare is the government problem not explained by that sentence.

[clarice]

All this might be true if (a) this wwere not an identity politics driven party and primary and (b) the Dem voters weren't idiots.

The Wa Po editorial writers all have their panties in a twist over this today.

[Rick Ballard]

It's an interesting "how we got here" piece with a very subtle "do your duty" dig at the Soopers. He might have spent a few more pixels explaining how the number of caucus states affected the Dem delegate totals to this point.

RW's inability (or unwillingness) to organize at the precinct level in caucus states due to her overconfidence about Super Tuesday results is a huge factor in BHO's success to date. The Dean/Stern/Soros machine understood the state rules and applied a very effective strategy to give their immature and unvetted candidate an edge.

Good job, fellas.

[Danube of Thought]

The Hillary Dems don't seem to want to focus on the collateral effects of denying the nomination to Obama. Check out Novak's column today; he clearly does understand.

[clarice]

Anyone can understand DOT and it's perfectly understandable why Hill and this author would like to pretend the blowback problem is non-existent.
In any event after 2000, the Dems have a hard time ignoring "let every vote count" though candor would suggest that their rules are so fercocked it's impossible to ascertain how one might do that without having half the party think it was screwed.

[Cecil Turner]

Unfortunately, I can only post my comments. I can't make you read them.

It's the rest of the verbiage from where you took those exerpts that make your view unpersuasive. The most important "dedication" is the book's title. And Barack claims the gist of the "project" is about the father:

. . . what has found its way onto these pages is a record of a personal, interior journey - a boy's search for his father, and through that a workable meaning for his life as a black American.

As understandable as pining for an absent parent might be, the focus on him as opposed to the present parent is odd, and might legitimately be viewed as male chauvinistic (though I'd agree not misogynistic). Similarly, his fascination with the African-American cultural experience--which he does not really share--is hard to understand, especially when it comes at the expense of the women in his life. I found this statement particularly jarring (even more so than the dismissal of his grandmother's typical whiteness):

I ceased to advertise my mother's race at the age of twelve or thirteen, when I began to suspect that by doing so I was ingratiating myself to whites

I find the immersion by the latter-day Barack into the African American culture, and the insistence on viewing everything through that prism, fundamentally unbalanced. I suspect there's a healthy dose of self-interest there, but in any event don't see his claim to a special perspective. (And even if there was, don't see that as much of a qualification for the presidency.)

[Rick Ballard]

Charlie Cook chimes in with his rendition of The Party's Over, dedicated to RW. Novak's column reiterates the point I made about RW's lousy performance in caucuses.

I just wish it were October 10th, although I wouldn't miss RW getting the hook for the world.

Selwyn Duke has a decent piece at American Thinker which gives some additional information supporting the probability that BHO will never get any more support among Catholics (and all other strong Right to Life Christians) than he enjoyed in PA.

DoT,

Should we just refer to him as Toasty from now on?

[clarice]

Really, brilliant, Cecil.

[narciso]

The Democrats really can't learn from history can they. At the time, they instituted the new rules, they had won for
17 of the last 25 years. Now they've been lucky if they make 8 in the last 25 years, or from the same period, twelve of the last
40 years. Keep on the same track, the Whigs will have a longer track record than the modern Democrats. I recall the definition of insanity as. . .

[DebinNC]

Is Obama literally out">http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/politics/blog/2008/04/obama_says_he_can_win_indiana.html">out of touch, (see pic)? Where are the reporters? Are those long metal things disembodied microphone "holders" offered from afar by the held-at-bay press?

[Gmax]

The white working class has gone to the Republican nominee for many elections, going back even to the Clinton years.

 David Axelrod Campaign manager for Obama.

 Did he really say this?  OMG was he speaking in front of a closed group of limousine liberals from San Francisco ? 

white working class = middle class = the great majority of the country

Even Lenin got it that he needed the proletariat long enough to install himself as their overlord. 



 

[glasater]

DebinNC--It appears to me that the photographer of the image you mention above is shooting from the base of the extended microphones with a wide angle lens. The camera lens at that angle distorts things considerably--notice how short Obama looks in relation to the other objects in the image.

[glasater]

Just saw the first Obama yardsign in our community and what an ominous looking thing it is.
White lettering on a black background with a red star center-top.

All it needs is a hammer and cycle to complete the message.

[Jane]

Cecil,

Don't underestimate the fact that it was the fact that Obama was black - and the AA that came with that, that really rescued Obama from the mundaneness and poverty that white kids of divorce had to deal with. Divorce was still not all that commonplace then,altho becoming a bit more acceptable, and women were just starting to find places in the workplace outside of the teaching and nursing professions.

[centralcal]

So, JOM savants, what are we to make of the National Press Club's invitation to Rev. Wright?

I suspect our liberal media is trying to "mainstream" him. Will it work?

[Danube of Thought]

And he's gonna be on Bill Moyers tomorrow night. Just keep him front and center, that's all I ask.

[Bill in AZ]

OT - climate change - AT had an interesting article the other day about solar cycle 23, and I sent a related comment to the author. He asked me to blog it, so here is my article on "astrology" as it is referred to in some circles. One of the more interesting papers I have read over the years...

[rhodan]

So. Axelrod's going to alienate not only Southerners, but white working class voters in the Mid West, West et al. Not even in Gary Hart's craziest moments as McGovern's
campaign manager would he have ever considered that.

[Porchlight]

Did he really say this? OMG was he speaking in front of a closed group of limousine liberals from San Francisco ?

Pretty much. He was talking to NPR.

[DebinNC]

Bill Moyers was able to mainstream Mr. Black Liberation Theology himself, James H. Cone. After Moyers finishes with him, Jeremiah Wright will seem like the sunny Joel "Discover the Champion in You" Osteen.

[Danube of Thought]

From Die Welt:

"Now, however, the state of Pennsylvania has demonstrated more clearly than ever that even a visionary can stumble if he spends week and week with his head stuck in the clouds of generalities. Suddenly Obama's idealism has run into concrete and unpleasant questions which have to be solved here and now. The visionary is in danger of looking foolish."

Foolish? A Field Marshal/Messiah look foolish?

[clarice]

Good for you Bill> It's an interesting article, but I'm not going to study the graphs. I'll take your word for it.

[MarkO]

If we are the ones we've been waiting for, why have we been waiting? Where were we? Why a duck?

[kim]

How much wood duck Foo Bar's comments.
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[Cecil Turner]

Really, brilliant, Cecil.

It'd have been a lot more impressive if I'd managed to post it on the right thread.

Back to the correct subject, it's interesting to note that in an attempt to kluge together a representative system and a system designed to preserve candidates' electability, the Dems have managed to create something that fails in the most basic requirement: choosing a candidate. And, as Auspitz notes, because there are several plausibly valid criteria (i.e., delegate count, popular vote, electability), there is no definitive measure-of-merit to decide the issue when it's close. That uncertainty is magnified by rules decisions on whether to seat certain delegations (e.g., MI and FL), that could presumably be reversed, and in any event obscure whether their popular totals should be included.

Another amusing aspect of the situation is that the remaining superdelegates seem reluctant to commit, possibly to avoid annoying part of their own base, and partly because their individual influence increases as time goes on. So the very corrective factor that was supposed to enshrine party loyalty has acquired an individual tilt.

The late-date rules change Auspitz envisions seems to me unlikely. Any significant change in the rules will decide the contest, and the motives of those making the change will necessarily be suspect (presumed partisan, in fact). And the DNC rule-makers have already effectively disenfranchised two critical blocs of voters. Now they can either further alienate them by installing new rules to overrule their choice, or "steal" the nomination from the African American delegate leader. I don't think they'll be in a hurry to do either.

[Barney Frank]

Another amusing aspect of the situation is that the remaining superdelegates seem reluctant to commit, possibly to avoid annoying part of their own base, and partly because their individual influence increases as time goes on.

As a corollary to your first point Cecil,the remaining superdelegates are also probably scared to back Obama because they want to avoid annoying the Clintons. If they back Obama and the Clintons pull their usual last minute kneecapping of BO and she ends up pres or even just the nominee who would want to be in their shoes?

[DebinNC]

Yesterday on CNN an uncommitted NC superdelegate, a Dem activist/attorney, was interviewed. I hope Howard Dean caught it. Not only is he in no hurry to commit, he reminded viewers that FDR wasn't chosen on the first ballot. Pinned down for when he'd make his decision, he said "Maybe just before I'm forced to vote at the convention. Or I could vote "present" and maybe vote on the second ballot." John Roberts responded, "That might give Howard Dean kittens" .. which is just the kind of manly expression I'd expect from John Roberts.

[M. Simon]

Novack - the Dem Dilema

[JM Hanes]

Sure hope the Next/Previous comment dividers are a temporary feature! It makes it so tedious to back track to comments you've made or wanted to reply to, or locate the original comment that someone else replied to. I, for one, intensely dislike that format, because I do a lot of scrolling. Not only is my find function now useless, I have to keep flipping pages too. Back before HotAir started splitting comments into multiple pages, I used to follow whole threads. Now I rarely bother, especially if it starts me out on p.3. I'm not unsympathetic to any remaining dial up folks, but I haven't heard anybody complaining about slow loading threads for quite awhile. Does anyone else find it as jarring to the sense of continuity as I do?

[Porchlight]

Yes, JMH, I'm in total agreement. It's a bummer. It's the same for me at Hot Air - I used to read the whole thread and now only occasionally will I bother. Hope this is temporary!

[hit and run]

I Blame Obama!

[hit and run]

For these divisions!!!

[bgates]

Agree on the comment divisions.

It turns out that a complex regulatory environment can lead to unanticipated and undesired results because people attempt to game the system for their own benefit.

Any chance the Democrats will keep this lesson in mind when they go back to their day jobs in the government?

[clarice]

Death to "next" and "previous"!!

[Elliott]

May this innovation go the way of the typekey login.

[M. Simon]

Where in the hell did all the comments go?

You refresh the page an everything disappears.

Tom,

Are you using a version of blogspot cira 2002?