Obama Or Hillary - Who is More Electable Come November?

Brad DeLong, writing in Salon, looks at charts and graphs and concludes that Obama is more electable in the swing states.

My quibble - much of the analysis hinges on the cross-currents of Obama's racial appeal, and the primary results so far precede the big Jeremiah Wright blow-up.  Current polling suggests that Obama will sail past that, in the primaries anyway, but time will tell.

My caveat - Brad DeLong is famous for boldly de-selecting himself from a Hillary Administration.  (Hmm... "De-selecting".  "Dis-appointing"?)

My deplorable cheap shot:  Republicans made these arguments in 2000 when the topic was the popular vote versus the Electoral College but it is fun to hear them again:

Wilentz's winner-take-all gambit is a talking point, not an argument: "If my grandmother had wheels, she would be a bus" is rarely a persuasive line of reasoning. If the rules for winning delegates and the nomination had been different, the candidates would have run different campaigns and put their resources into different places and different proportions.

And my Now He Tells Us moment: "Sean Wilentz is a Yankees fan. I am a Red Sox fan."

Comments

[kim]

Dean. It's the Democratic way.
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[kim]

Dean/Gore. Hay, Charybdis.
=================

[kim]

Cue: Message in a Bottle. Will they be able to decipher it?
====================================

[bio mom]

Hillary Clinton is the stronger candidate in the swing states. A great website to consult on a bastion of recent polling that stays very up to date is Hedgehog Report.

[DebinNC]

DeLong: "Barack Obama is a charismatic, historic figure."

Does an engaging personality trump a candidate's views and intentions? Does simply being "the first" fill-in-the-blank candidate make a person historic, rather than what that person does that affects history?

[Jane]

OT: The Masters tee-off was delayed an hour this morning due to pea soup fog. They made poor Arnold Palmer tee off at the regular time, only to lose his ball immediately in grayness.

That, of course, means Tiger will tee off at 11:45.

The lead, currently 3 under (after 8) is held by Heath Slocum who is playing in his first Masters. (Only 3 players have won the tournament on their first try - Fuzzy Zoellar being the latest, many years ago.)

[kim]

Jane's got the heart of a goof. Who were the other two?
=========

[Jane]

That's the first trivia question in the Master's four day full coverage brought to you by Elliott and Jane.

So you tell me!

[Rick Ballard]

Jay Cost does a very good "how we got here" that delineates the fact that Red Witch has "lost", rather than BHO having "won".

DeLong's analysis is more than slightly shaky. Victory lies in the Muddle, not in a group which is already aligned at the 90% level. How does one achieve more than a 100% turnout on the Philly plantation? PA will swing on the Muddle in November, not on increased black turnout. The Dem plantations hit the point of sharply diminishing returns some time ago.

Cost neglects a point which deserves some serious thought. BHO's campaign really has done far better than RW's on the organizational level. How did an obscure first term Senator manage to put a national campaign in play so easily? Whose shoe leather got worn out organizing those caucus victories?

Dean's Revenge has been delightful entertainment to this point. One might wish that those writing political commentary would address the "where did this organization come from?" question in sufficient detail that Howie might receive some of the credit for downing Broom One.

[Danube of Thought]

What about this Chicago babe--a self-described Democrat, I believe--who's focusing on the Rezko thing, and who says that once the Obama corruption facts go public, he has zero chance? Someone linked to a piece she wrote yesterday, but the thing was eleven pages, and my eyes glazed over in a trice. Anybody know a short version?

[ben]

Marist Poll New York State

McCain 46 Obama 44
Clinton 48 McCain 46

If Democrats have to spend $$ in New York it would be great. I hope McCain has that poll in his pocket when he meets Bloomberg this week.

[Danube of Thought]

Good God don't tell me he would consider Bloomberg as a running mate for a single nanosecond.

[kim]

Rick, Obama's organization is a stable structure constructed by Dean, and Obama is the stalking horse.
===========================

[MayBee]

The transcript is not yet up, but on the new David Gregory show on MSNBC*** yesterday one of the pundits- a black female (and I thought a Democrat) said the following two things must be said:

1)Wake up America! The Democrats are playing you on free trade. It is here to stay, and it is of overall benefit to our country. No matter who wins this election, you will see new FTAs pass before he is sworn in.

2)Wake up America! Neither Obama nor Hillary are going to be able to reduce troop levels as they are promising. They will have to live with the horrible consequences if they do. That's why neither one discussed pullouts with Petraeus and Crocker. Obama especially is going to have to find a way to address this as his campaign moves on.

So.
I thought to myself, 'there is some hope here'.

[MayBee]

oh the ***
The new David Gregory show is actually quite good, for that type of show. He is--dare I say it?-- pretty fair.

[Charlie (Colorado)]

DeLong's analysis is more than slightly shaky.

Boy, there's a candidate for putting onto a macro key.

[Charlie (Colorado)]

How does one achieve more than a 100% turnout on the Philly plantation?

Um, as I recall, it's been managed in Texas, Chicago, and Seattle.

[Rick Ballard]

Kim,

The organization is the result of a joint effort between Howard Dean and Andy Stern, President of the SEIU. Those two, in alliance with MoveOn and other Soros fronts, have done an outstanding job in bringing the Democrat Party to the point of schism.

RW is playing Stalin to Bho's Trotsky but she hasn't got a full arm swing going on the ice axe yet. She'll get there, unless Dean can force the Politburo to oust her fairly soon.

Nothing beats a good internecine struggle to the death between branchs of marxism fighting over the rotting corpse of a dead ideology. One might wonder when moderate Democrats will tire of the fight and begin to reassert themselves. Not too soon, I hope.

BHO is definitely a stalking something - horse might be reaching a little high.

[cathyf]

C'mon, Charlie, you left out Milwaukee & St. Louis. (Although to be fair lots of the folks who vote multiple times in Milwaukee do so after voting multiple times in Chicago earlier in the day.)

[Patrick R. Sullivan]

(Only 3 players have won the tournament on their first try...

Obviously, Horton Smith who won the inaugural event in 1934, would be one. Gene Sarazen won the second in '35 and would be my guess for the second rookie winner.

[RichatUF]

DoT-

I was looking at the article earlier and its a keeper. A short summary doesn't do it justice however the quick bullet points I take from it are:

-BHO's political career is founded on the corrupt Illinois political machine, in which, numerous indictments and trials are currently in the works or ongoing.

-BHO and his allies and associates have profited through fraud and corruption in 3 key areas:

1. Management of state pension funds

2. Development and management of low income housing

3. Construction and development of hospital facilities [*]

-The locus of this corruption was the firm Rezmar and its partners Rezko, Mahru, and Brint and the law firm Davis Miner Barnhill & Galland which has Allison Davis as a partner and another prominent figure in BHO's rise to political stardom

-Those mentioned Rezmar parters identified and groomed BHO since he was first elected to head Harvard Law Review

-BHO provided legal services (before his political career then access after) through Davis to enrich Rezmar and its associates through an interlocking network of state and city housing boards, low income housing non-profits, and construction and development companies to scheme and defraud both Illinois and the Federal government

[*] Haven't looked into it but a fruitful area of research would be Medicaid and Medicare fraud and any sort of interlocking network of hospitals, medical service providers, and medical service non-profits which could map with some similarity to the low income housing network

Hope this is helpful

[RichatUF]

And for those interested in the article DoT referenced from the previous thread-here is a link.

[Elliott]

kim,

I can't remember. I made the closest study of Merolchazzar and his retinue.

[Porchlight]

Thanks for the link, Rich. Interesting piece with a lot of detail I didn't know, although I must say OpEdNews.com is a pretty wacky site. Check out some of the articles linked on the sidebars.

[Elliott]

Five players are tied for the lead at 2-under par in the first round of the 2008 Masters tournament. It may soon be six players, as defending champion Zach Johnson hit his tee shot at the par-3 12 inside of a foot.

Speaking of Johnson, before his victory last year, who is the last player to win the Masters without winning without having already won on the PGA Tour in the same year?

[Elliott]

Zach Johnson leads alone at 3-under.

Phile Mickelson has opened with birdies on the first two hole (Birdie, Birdie, Chicken Curry!). Tiger Woods has yet to record one, but will have a good chance to end his run of pars at the 13th.

[Jane]

Patrick Sullivan gets the first prize!!!!

Obviously, Horton Smith who won the inaugural event in 1934, would be one. Gene Sarazen won the second in '35 and would be my guess for the second rookie winner.

Good job!

[Elliott]

Justin Rose has now taken the lead at 4-under par. He has been the first round leader on other occasions.

[pagar]

Here's the summary paragraphs for the Link RichatUF posted.

Ms Pringle says~~~

"A month ago a friend of mine who knew I did not think Obama was qualified to be president, asked me what I would do if he was nominated. I replied that I would vote for him of course, what a dumb question. No more. After a month of research, I could no more support Barack Obama as the leader of this country than I could support another war profiteering Republican.

If he becomes the nominee, all the Democrats in America will be viewed by the rest of the world as either utterly stupid, or totally corrupt. Therefore, for the first time in my life, I have made a conscious decision to take a stand and not vote in a presidential election if the choice is Obama. "

I know it is a long article but America needs to read it. If you haven't already done so please pass it along to friends family etc. IMO,you can be sure much, much more will be added to the story before election day and none of it will be good.

[Elliott]

Justin Rose remains 4-under and at the top of the leaderboard, one shot ahead of Trevor Immelman and Sandy Lyle.

Tiger Woods continues his quest for a birdie (but he did make two bogeys and an eagle on 13-15).

Phil Mickelson has three putted the sixth hole, to fall back to 1-under. I believe he three-putted* the same hole in the final round in 2001, when he finished third, three shots behind Tiger Woods.
_________________
*Unlike on the PGA Tour, at the Masters strokes played with a putter from off the green are counted as putts.

[Jane]

I didn't know that. Have you ever been to Augusta Elliott?

[Danube of Thought]

Thanks, RichUF. I hope the thing gets to the point where it can be captured in a few sound bites; otherwise the electorate will remain blissfully unaware of it.

Recall that no one doubted that the Clintons were utterly surrounded by crooks in Arkansas, and many of them went to prison after the Whitewater investigation. But no criminal charges were ever made against either of them.

[Elliott]

No, I've just driven through on the interstate.

Brandt Snedeker, playing in the Masters for the second time after an appearance in 2004 as the U.S. Public Links champion has joined the group at 3-under, which includes Trevor Immelman, who also first appeared at Augusta as the Public Links champ.

[Jane]

Tiger is wearing pink. And he looks like married life agrees with him to the tune of a couple of lbs. He fails to break par, but he did get an eagle.

This is a typical Tiger start. He rarely surges until Saturday.

[Elliott]

Rose is the new clubhouse leader at 68; Immelman has joined him at 4-under.

Masters rookie Brian Bateman has posted the second sub-70 round, shooting 69 with a birdie at the last.

Tiger did not win any of the three previous Masters in which he shoot 72 in the opening round.

[Jane]

He's gonna win this one. Remember his first - as I recall his first round was up there in the 70's and he beat the field by 12 shots.

[Elliott]

The magical opening number for Tiger is 70. He done that three times and won each time.

[Elliott]

which he shoot
He done that

I blame ClariceBush.

[Patrick R. Sullivan]

Augusta is set up very differently now. Par is really about 75-76. It's like a US Open.

[Jane]

He's doing fine...

[Daddy]

"The Encouraging Socialist for Change", or
"The Change Encouraging Socialist"?

Whew, that's a tough choice we're looking at TM. I think I'll reluctantly go for whoever happens to be behind door number 3.

[Elliott]

Augusta is set up very differently now.

On the one hand, I miss seeing someone make 24 or 25 birdies as Mickelson did in 2001. But, I don't miss seeing the longest hitters have 80 yards into the last hole. It was greatly entertaining to watch players hitting 5-7 irons (or wedge and 9-iron as a certain player did in '97) into the par fives on the second nine, though.

[Jane]

It's Day 2 at Augusta. Cut day. Yesterday brought us 2 Eagles and one Hole-in- won and a course that played very tough due to pin placement as much as anything. If the wind starts blowing watch the numbers go way up.

More importantly will Tiger wear pink? Will Phil once again dress like a cop. Will the rest of Ian Poulter's spring fashion line be as white as yesterday's? Okay I'm being gratuitous.

Trivia question:

Who took the most tries to win their second Masters? And how many tries did it take?

[Patrick R. Sullivan]

Gary Player. He shouldn't have won his first one in '61. Arnold Palmer blew a lead with a six on the eighteenth hole. I was home sick from school on that Monday (rain delay) and watched it on black and white TV. It was the first golf tournament I'd ever seen.

Now that I look up 'multiple Masters winners' I see that Ben Crenshaw also went more than a decade between wins.

[Jane]

Crenshaw who played 23 years before his second win. The question is a bit deceptive because he had that first win in there.

Boy that was a win. I watched it in a bar in the Berkshires. As I recall I cried like a baby for him. I think it was right around the time some big golf guy (I forget who) one of Crenshaw's heroes died. It was like he was channeling him.

Immelman is the current leader at 7 under. I'm really surprised they are scoring that low.

[Elliott]

Immelman has recorded another 68 and leads by one over Brandt Snedeker and by three over Steve Flesch, whose 67 is the best round of the tournament so far.

Phil Mickelson trails by four. He's hit his second shot at 13 into the hazard both days and played the hole 1-under.

Tiger Woods has birdied the first hole and trails by seven.

Trivia question: Who is the last player to win the Masters with a super-par final round?

[Jane]

What does "super par" mean? Over par?

[glasater]

I used to play a lot of golf but much of it has slipped my mind in recent years. Used to love match play.

I think super par is over par scores. The point being that Augusta is such a tough course--par could not be broken.

One claim to fame is that years ago I got to caddy for our golf pro in an exhibition tournament that featured Sam Snead.

He was a pretty cranky fellow but at seventy still had that smooth swing.

When I was introduced to him he said I had nice teeth:~) It was such an odd thing to hear but later the golf pro said it was the nicest thing Mr. Snead had said all day.

[Elliott]

Exactly, Jane.

The wind is increasing and the course is drying out, though that may not continue to the weekend as Jim Nantz tells us there may be rain overnight. The players who started early today look to have gotten the best of it.

[Elliott]

Anyone know what Martha Burk is up to these days?

[DebinNC]

Martha Burk "most recently served as a Senior Adviser for Women’s Issues to the 2008 presidential campaign of Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico."

It sounds like Bill can use all the help he can get: "The lieutenant governor of New Mexico, Diane Denish was quoted in the Albuquerque Journal saying she avoids standing or sitting near Richardson because of his physical manner, which she said was not improper but was "annoying." The governor, she said, "pinches my neck. He touches my hip, my thigh, sort of the side of my leg."

[Elliott]

Fred Couples may miss cut for the first time at the Masters. He's two off the current cut line with five holes to play.

My pick to win Nick O'Hern, twice a victor over Tiger Woods at the WGC Match Play Championship and one of five left-handers at this year's Masters, is in even greater danger of being home this weekend.

[hit and run]

I'm definitely pulling for Justin Leonard.

[Jane]

Tiger is having a tough go of it, a bigger rarity for him, than running away with it. It will all be about moving day for him.

Immelman has been very impressive. And I like Rose too. It would be nice to see more of the young guys challenge my main man.

[Elliott]

Mr. Woods is in good position on the 13th. With a couple birdies coming in and a 68 or 69 tomorrow he will probably have a chance on Sunday. However, he still hasn't come from behind to win on Sunday at a major.

[Jane]

Ahhh Tiger is built to do the unexpected.

[glasater]

Well Fred Couples is making things interesting with his fight to make the cut.

[Elliott]

Couples has birdied both par fives on the second nine and has a difficult eight foot putt left for birdie on 18. If he makes it, he'll set the record for consecutive cuts made at the Masters, surpassing the current mark of 23 he shares with Gary Player. He might make the cut even if he doesn't make birdie, but it will be a very close thing.

[glasater]

Dang--he didn't make the birdie. Let's hope things work out for him otherwise.

[Elliott]

Two things:

1. With respect to the cut, one very interested spectator is the Augusta National member, a competitive amateur golfer, who will play as a marker if an odd number of players make the cut.

2. It is possible that the two Argentines, Angel Cabrera and Andres Romero, will play together tomorrow. Should that happen, I'd expect at least one of them to post a very, very good third round score.

[Jane]

Tiger finishes 7 off the lead, one under. Striking distance in my world.

[Elliott]

Mr. Woods has finished 36 holes at 1-under par. He is seven strokes shy the leader Trevor Immelman, and, perhaps more importantly, four shy of Mickelson.

I'm not certain, but I think Woods and Romero will be playing tomorrow. How about a friendly "wager," for bragging rights only, Jane? I'll take Romero head-to-head in that pairing.

[Jane]

Absolutely!

[Jane]

We are now off the page.

[Elliott]

We'll just have to find another under-appreciated thread then.

And Romero and Woods are playing together. We're set for some third round fun. Can we leave Tiger and Jane in the dust with a third round 66? Si, se puede! Si, se puede!

[Jane]

It's mooooving day - Yippee. I'm gonna miss some of it for a 6 year olds birthday party. Let me know where you morph to!