Smelling Blood?

Joe Klein, after spending time with both campaigns over the weekend in Pennsylvania, leaves us wondering what Hillary is thinking, or drinking, to get herself so charged up:

Substance: Both Clinton's and Obama's stump speeches have collapsed into blatant pandering.

...Energy: Obama seems either bummed or pissed or exhausted. He could be near death and still be a pretty good speaker, but he's very much off his game right now. Clinton, by contrast, is on fire--as energetic and passionate as I've seen her.

Update: No sooner do I write about all the laundry-list pandering than Clinton hauls off here at Penn State and gives a rousing, high-minded stump speech--as good as I've heard her.

...Although... She's now drifted back into the same old, same old. Still, not bad.

The Dead Woman Running is hanging in there.  I don't know if I can take it - Hillary as a sympathetic, never-say-die battler.  It's almost Rocky-esque.  And it has to help.

I must say this does not tie in well to my long term hope of seeing Hillary cry one more time on national television.  But I can wait.  And if Obama cries first, that's cool, too.

UPDATE:  Matt Drudge answers my question about what's energizing Hillary, and yes, it is the smell of blood, or napalm, but anyway, victory:

Controlled excitement is building inside of Clinton's inner circle as closely guarded internal polling shows the former first lady with an 11-point lead in Pennsylvania!

Clinton is polling near to nearly 2 to 1 over Obama in many regions of the state, a top insider explained to the DRUDGE REPORT.

A strong coalition of middle-class and religious voters has all but secured a Clinton victory Tuesday, with headline-making margins, the campaign believes.

"It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of how much," a senior campaign source said Monday morning.

Can I be the hundredeth caller to say "It will come down to turnout"?

Comments

[Thomas Collins]

HRC probably senses that her campaign is going to be winding down soon, so she is in a "nothing to lose" mode, which is giving her energy. Unfortunately, if she drops out after Indiana and North Carolina, MSM will be able to focus on their attempt to trash Sidney (we see it already with the WaPo's "analysis" of Sidney's temper). Hussein will undoubtedly get some sort of upward bump from MSM. For those who would just as soon not have the POTUS be a conciliatory internationalist/socialist, this is not good news. Come on, HRC, hang on at least until Puerto Rico, so MSM won't be able to focus exclusively on its "Hussein in '08" mission.

[Pofarmer]

And if Obama cries first, that's cool, too.

Now that was funny, and mean. Had to snort a little coffee.

[Jane]

I had dinner with a dyed-in-the-wool-NY democrat die-hard-Hillary supporter last night.

She hates Obama. She cannot imagine voting for a republican but may this year. Her 82 year old mother, (who shares the above blueprint except that she is from CA) has never voted for a republican for national office, and will this year vote for McCain.

The animus within the party is breathtaking.

[Sanjay]

Well, duh. Obama cries real jellybeans.

[Danube of Thought]

I'd like to direct the attention of the young Messiah to a cloud no bigger than a man's hand: His unfavorables (according to Rasmussen) have lately been exceeding his favorables, and are slightly above 50%. Isn't it the conventional wisdom that numbers like this are very ominous?

Rasmussen also has had McCain running 4-5 points ahead of Obama nationally for some time now. In that regard he seems to be out of line with most others, e.g. Gallup. I know RBallard has the utmost confidence in Rasmussen--I hope he's right.

But in any even, the Messiah is on a down-bound train, and it won't be stopped.

[Ranger]

Hey, Hil hasn't even dropped the big one yet, Black Liberation Theology. There is audio of Obama saying "White peoples' greed runs a world in need" from his books on tape.

Imagine the campaign ad that could make:

Barack Obama says that our faith should guide our policies. But what is the core of Barack Obama's faith:

"White peoples' greed runs a world in need"

These are the words that brought him to God. These are the words that are the core of his faith. These are the words that will inspire his policies.

[Neo]

Living here in PA, I really can't take another Obama commercial.

The best of the worst is the non-Obama Obama commercial that interview folks at gas pumps saying how Obama is going to do something.

This inspires me to think that a good counter commercial would be to have the same commercial and then ask them just what it is that Obama is going to do ? .. a series of blank looks would say it all.

[Jane]

The democrat congress said they would do something too - if only we gave them control of congress. And they were right, they made gas prices climb to new highs. Somehow I'm not sure that was what their supporters had in mind.

[Rick Ballard]

"I know RBallard has the utmost confidence in Rasmussen--I hope he's right."

I have confidence in the national surveys which Rasmussen performs on a repeat basis. In particular, his Partisan ID survey and the Congressional Survey. I think he's OK on the national candidate contests but he wasn't any better than anyone else in particular state primaries. I'm a little concerned about the shift in Partisan Identification over the past few months. The BHO Mania is starting to fade but it sure shifted some independents over, just as McCain knocked out about 10% of the self identified Republicans.

McCain may get a heavy crossover but so far he hasn't moved any Indies or Dems into really switching. That's not a good sign.

[Danube of Thought]

I'm thinking all the movement will occur after Labor Day. Outside of primary voters and political junkies, people haven't taken much of a real look at Obama yet. Gonna be lots of doubts and questions about him when November rolls around.

[Jane]

The dems won't move en masse until the nominee is decided. If it is decided early, they may move over and then move back. The later the better I say. Hillary supporters really hate Obama supporters at this point. And as long as she stays in it, I don't think that will change.

[Jane]

Because I know you are all so interested, 2 women Alektina Biktimirova, 25, of Russia and Dire Tune, 22, of Ethiopia are neck and neck in the Boston marathon after 24 miles. They just ran their fastest mile of the entire race in 5 minutes 18 seconds. It's a historic battle in Boston.

[Danube of Thought]

Hard to imagine her doing anything gracious when the end finally arrives, but nevertheless I think she'll give it a try. Otherwise she becomes something of a pariah among Dems.

[Jane]

Mile 24, the women do in 5 minutes 8 seconds.

[Chris]

Jane,
That is an impressive stat on the 24th mile. Is it a message for Hillary?

[DebinNC]

I wonder if PA voters were affected by the dual images over the weekend of a fiesty Hillary rushing from event to event, versus Obama leisurely waving from the comfortable platform of a slow moving train. To me, the message is she's working and he's coasting. And if every time I turned on tv or radio I had to suffer through an Obama ad, I'd begin to resent him, especially if I saw him smiling, waving, happily tooting train whistles at the time.

[Thomas Collins]

Jane said:

"Mile 24, the women do in 5 minutes 8 seconds."

That's quicker than my average minutes per mile driving into Boston today (due to the road closures caused by the Marathon).

[Rick Ballard]

DoT,

I agree with your central premise 100% - The Geezer is gonna leave Metropunk bleeding on the sidewalk in November. Metropunk's "shiny penny" moment has already passed and the fact that he continues to take a butter knife to a shootout with Annie Oakley (did you know he hates guns?) is indicative of how badly he's going to get thumped.

My concern is downticket - not the top slot.

We need a little more focus on how badly the economy has fared since the Copperheads took control of Congress. Consumer confidence has plummeted since Reid and Pelosi took control and the Democrats are absolutely clueless (including Senator Metropunk and Senator Red Witch) as to what to do next. Aside from raising taxes, of course.

The total incompetence of this do nothing Congress is going to be a key factor going into the election. They have about ten weeks left in session and they have nothing of any merit whatsoever on the table.

They need to wind up on the sidewalk next to Metropunk.

[Jane]

The best women's race ever in a Boston Marathon. Head to head until the end - Alektina Biktimirova, 25, of Russia (#8) and Dire Tune, 22, of Ethiopia (#7)who both ran mile 24 in 5 minutes and 8 seconds. With one block to go one block Tune pulls it out and wins by 3 seconds.

Robert K Cheruiyot of Kenya the men's winner ran away with it. His 4th Boston Marathon win. He led for all 26.2 miles.

Men's wheelchair winner Ernst F. Van Dyk of South Africa.

Women's wheelchair winner Wakako Tsuchida of Japan.

[Neo]

I aways love the "turnout" argument.

Democrats have always said that Republicans want to suppress voter turnout, so in 2004 we had the largest voter turnout in years and Bush won .. the argument turned to Ohio and Diebold.

What still isn't clear here in PA is just how big the Limbaugh driven "Project Chaos" turnout will be. I expect 1 or 2%, which is really big for what is really a "dirty tricks" campaign inspired by Governor Ed Rendell (D-PA) who tried that same stunt in 2002.

[Danube of Thought]

Problem is, Rick, that Congress never, ever gets blamed for a sagging economy. It's always laid at the feet of the president, even though that's been unjust with the sole exceptions of Hoover and Carter.

I'm not optimistic about the down-ticket races, but I don't think it's going to be the bloodbath some are predicting.

[PaulL]

I doubt if anyone here could run one mile in 5:08. I know I couldn't.

[sylvia]

I saw clips of Hillary on one of her recent stump speeches yesterday, and she was talking about how Obama's speeches are nice, but she's the one who will get results. And that's the advice I gave her here about a month ago- to go with the "action and results" theme as compared to her previous lame "more experience" theme.

So not only Karl Rove is reading JOM but maybe Hillary is too. I'll expect a check in the mail for my campaign consultantancy work any day now.

[Jane]

Tom Collins,

I can't believe you went to work on Marathon Day - particularly in Boston. There is something sacrilegious about that. You should be drinking at Cooledge Corner.

[Rick Ballard]

DoT,

Downticket results will hinge more heavily upon the platform this year than they have in the past. A well crafted and simple platform tuned a bit to the <$50K defectors could have a surprising impact - something with an "increase opportunity" focus tied to "retain the tax cuts" might flip some seats back. The main thing is that it has to be simple. The Muddle gets confused rather easily.

[LindaK]

Maybe some of those bitter PA voters were either attending or watching the papal mass at Yankee Stadium. In sharp contrast to the pope authentic message of hope, BO's riff really falls flat. Perhaps, too, voters are starting to realize that this supposed agent of change has not actually ever, er, changed anything in his public career in office. Perhaps the typical bitter white voter remark caused the folks in PA see some other blemishes on BO.

[vnjagvet]

McCain may get a heavy crossover but so far he hasn't moved any Indies or Dems into really switching. That's not a good sign.

Until RW is swept from the field by the Fresh Prince of Hyde Park, I doubt that many Dems will admit to crossing over, and maybe even then will not choose to be Republicans.

This is looking a lot like Liebermnan's race in Connecticut. Nutroots vanquish new deal/old guard; muddled middle revolts; new deal/old guard wins.

Gross oversimplification, of course, but with some evidence.

Our own Sara is a pretty good barometer of the success of the lefties with old line democrats.

Pennsylvania will be a pretty good predictor as well, I think.

[MayBee]

According to Talk Left, the Clinton camp disputed in a conference call they have any such internal poll data.
It's hard to know, but the I haven't talked about Hillary's Tuzla lie/Here are some military people to disparage Hillary about Tuzla/We disavow the military people dance from Obama is the best indicator that someone's polls have her way way up.

[The Muddle]

Mr. Ballard:

Please stop using those big words.

[Rick Ballard]

Don't worry Muddle. We've ordered a forest worth of butcher paper and put Crayola on a 24/7/365 production schedule. Everything will be clear by October 1.

Say - did you know that Obama hates guns and wants to ban pickup trucks?

[Thomas Collins]

I did my drinking at Jake's near Nantasket Beach on Saturday, Jane.

[Barney Frank]

Rick,

Say - did you know that Obama hates guns

That I did know.
The big surprise to me was that RW grew up a veritable Daisy Mae in Dogpatch just a huntin' and a shootin'.

[PeterUK]

"Say - did you know that Obama hates guns and wants to ban pickup trucks?"

He also wants to ban bitterness - then you will have no excuse to drink.

[Jane]

I did my drinking at Jake's near Nantasket Beach on Saturday

I did mine last night on my deck -with a Hillary supporter. And boy am I paying for it today.

[hit and run]

Did someone mention drinking?

Why, you read my mind.

Shocking, I know.

But I'm really just looking out for Jane and Elliott.

[Bill in AZ]

"ban pickup trucks" - that's prolly 95% of the vote here. He's toast.

[Jane]

Love it Hit!

[Sue]

I doubt if anyone here could run one mile in 5:08. I know I couldn't.

I could. Easily. Five days, 8 hours. Piece of cake.

[JM Hanes]

Run?

[vnjagvet]

Hit:

BHO was worried that Yuengling was a "designer" beer? He clearly didn't taste before asking. IIRC, the only Yuengling brew that was good (and it was very good!) was Porter.

Back in the day, a Yuengling Porter with the old green pony bottle Ballentine IPA made a passable substitute for the much more expensive Guiness and Bass black and tan;-0

[Sue]

Run?

What's that? ::grin::

[hit and run]

vnjagvet:
BHO was worried that Yuengling was a "designer" beer? He clearly didn't taste before asking.

Heh. Yeah, a few people here like it, bless their hearts.

[JM Hanes]

What's that?

My question exactly! ::g::

[M. Simon]

Come the general.

On the Bus with the Maverick - shoots the shit about anything. Just another one of the boys in the band.

On the Bus with the Messiah - can't afford one unscripted moment lest the truth come out.

I think McCain has been working for 20 years to neutralize the MSM. It has got to help.

[M. Simon]

Hey,

I could walk the mile in 5:08 easy.

Oh? You mean minutes?

Never mind.

[M. Simon]

Rick,

Suppose they did something unusual like tout the amount of capital investment required for every high paying job.

We need more capital growth if we want more income growth.

[Ralph L]

Just another one of the boys in the band.
I thought that was Obama's problem, but those long cruises....

[kim]

Anybody notice the laryngitis?
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[Davod]

We hear about the voting irregularities in Philladelphia during every election. I suppose this time the winner boils down to who has control of the party machine.