Cool Story For Poll Geeks

The "Poblano" story is very interesting for poll jockeys and number crunchers.  Basically, he broke down the Hillary and Obama vote differentials based on demographic characteristics and then applied earlier primary results to the changing demographic mix in upcoming states, with pretty good results.  The Big Finish from the National Journal:

All of which brings us to the underlying story of the Democratic presidential primaries. Since Super Tuesday, it has mostly been the story of what hasn't happened. Over the last three months or so, for better or worse, the underlying coalitions of support for Obama and Clinton have remained largely constant.

So therein lies the bad news and the worse news for the Obama and Clinton campaigns, respectively. The bad news for the Obama campaign is that evidence of an expansion of his coalition is weak.

The far worse news for the Clinton campaign is that evidence that she made "important progress" among white voters in Indiana and North Carolina is weaker still. After weeks of pummeling over the controversies involving the Wright's remarks and Obama's comments about the "bitterness" of rural voters, Obama's coalition remains intact and on track to produce a majority of pledged delegates. The "game-changer" that the Clinton campaign counted on to alter the thinking of unpledged superdelegates did not materialize.

Comments

[Neo]

Just how out of touch is this Obama character.

He doesn't even know that he received the endorsement of Hamas, and denying it now ain't gonna make it go away.

[Danube of Thought]

History will record it as proof positive of an inherently racist society. Actual fact will record it as a majority, mostly white, not trusting this strange young man with a decidely weird wife to move into the Oval Office. It won't happen.

[Neo]

Come to think about it, maybe we finally found something other than the Obama/Wright connection with which to compare McCain/Hagee .. now it's Obama/Hamas.

Let's see he didn't sit in the pews with Hamas for the last two decades, so the fit is much better.

Now my choice is much clearer .. is it MaCain who has the endorsement of some (unarmed) crazy preacher .. or Obama who has the endorsement of Hamas, a group on the State Department's list of terror organizations ?

Gee .. that's a real touch call there.

[windansea]

Over the last three months or so, for better or worse, the underlying coalitions of support for Obama and Clinton have remained largely constant.

hmm not sure about this, here is an analysis by a Hillary supporter at Mydd

In fact, Obama's showing in NC last night is CONSIDERABLY weaker than his showing in neighboring VA 3 months ago. In my opinion, we should all be asking WHY and also wondering about what this decline in numbers means in terms of the GE?

NC and VA make an excellent, nearly ideal side-by-side comparison in terms of demographics. These 2 contests clearly show a significant increase in support for Sen Clinton and a marked decrease in support for Sen Obama.

These figures are taken from the NYTimes Exit Data:
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-gui de/2008/results/states/NC.html
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-gui de/2008/results/states/VA.html

VIRGINIA (2/12)
Final Results:
64% Obama
36% Clinton
Obama won by 28pts

Obama won 67% of White Men (27% of total)
Obama won 45% of White Women (35% of total)
Obama won 93% of Black Men (13% of total)
Obama won 85% of Black Women (17% of total)

NORTH CAROLINA (5/6)
56% Obama
42% Clinton
Obama won by 14pts

Obama won 40% of White Men (28% of total)
Obama won 33% of White Women in NC (35% of total)
Obama won 91% of Black Men in NC (13% of total)
Obama won 91% of Black Women in NC (20% of total)

Obama lost ground among:
White Men (-27)
White Women (-12)
Black Men (-2)
He gained among Black Women (+6)

[Sara]

The more I learn about Obama and his angry wife, the more I'm beginning to despise them both.

NRO nails it:

First, let us be clear about the nature of Senator Obama’s attack today: He used the words ‘losing his bearings’ intentionally, a not particularly clever way of raising John McCain’s age as an issue. This is typical of the Obama style of campaigning.

We have all become familiar with Senator Obama’s new brand of politics. First, you demand civility from your opponent, then you attack him, distort his record and send out surrogates to question his integrity. It is called hypocrisy, and it is the oldest kind of politics there is.

It is important to focus on what Senator Obama is attempting to do here: He is trying desperately to delegitimize the discussion of issues that raise legitimate questions about his judgment and preparedness to be President of the United States.

Through their actions and words, Senator Obama and his supporters have made clear that ANY criticism on ANY issue — from his desire to raise taxes on millions of small investors to his radical plans to sit down face-to-face with Iranian President Ahmadinejad – constitute negative, personal attacks.

Senator Obama is hopeful that the media will continue to form a protective barrier around him, declaring serious limits to the questions, discussion and debate in this race.

Senator Obama has good reason to think this plan will succeed, as serious journalists have written of the need for ‘de-tox’ to cure ’swooning’ over Senator Obama, and others have admitted to losing their objectivity while with him on the campaign trail.

[Buford Gooch]

History will record it as America again refusing to elect a far left liberal.

[Buford Gooch]

I think perhaps one more election and the MSM will have completely lost its grip on the dissemination of campaign information. When that happens (and it will happen, if if not in one more election) the left loses its 10-15 point automatic press advantage. There will be a re-aligning of the parties. I don't know how that will shake out, or which of the re-aligned parties I will want to be part of, but that bubble is about to pop.

[Chris]

Windandsea;
"These figures are taken from the NYTimes Exit Data:..."

Realizing that it's the only data we have, but how accurate is that data, really? My guess is that it could even be worse for BO. Eggheads and AA's--McGovern, redux. That's not our side (whatever side "we're on. Who knows anymore?).

It's gonna be a long, hot summer I think.

[Chris]

"we're"

[michael]

Obama associates affably with shady characters. Penny Pritzker wouldn't seem to fit in that group. I wonder what she knows of him?

[JB]

Buford,

The technological trends are not in their favor. We're looking at a wireless broadband America by 2012. Disseminating high quality video is going to be a snap.

The gatekeepers are scared shitless, as they should be. In an age where anyone can be a source of news, credibility is the dominate factor. Their game is up.

[Soylent Red]

All of this, in my decidedly underinformed opinion, points to a peak in the Obamessiah phenomenon. If that is true, he should be on a path of decline that will force him to put more into the system to maintain status quo. He'll be campaigning to hold ground while McCain campaigns to build his support.

IOW what we see Obamessiah carrying now may be the bulk of what he canget. Enough to win the primary in which those cohorts naturally reside, but at a cost of positioning himself for further gains with the muddle.

Depending on where the actual numbers sit for the general, McCain may only need to add single digit percentages in key states to give himself solid electoral advantage.

For being such a weak sister candidate, McCain should be in pretty good shape. If we had a solid candidate in contention this thing would already be mathematically decided. But alas, I guess we have to settle for being in good shape.

[michaelt]

Sara, that quote actually came from the McCain campaign, so there is at least one person over there that knows what is going on. Let's hope they keep it up.

[Pagar]

"Obama associates affably with shady characters. Penny Pritzker wouldn't seem to fit in that group."

Penny Pritzker fits perfectly in that group.
Article

"As of this date I have not been repaid full the amount stolen from me by Penny Pritzker & Superior Bank. To add insult to injury approximately one year after stealing $42 million, the Pritzker family gave a $30 million dollar gift to the University of Chicago. My letters sent to Edgar D.Jannotta, Chairman of the Board of Trustees University of Chicago and other board members asking them to examine their conscience on receiving this money from the same family that stole $42 million dollars from Superior Bank depositors went unacknowledged."

" The Pritzkers, one of the nation’s wealthiest families and heirs to the fortune created by the Hyatt hotels, agreed today to pay a record $460 million to the federal government to avoid being punished for the failure of Superior Bank F.S.B., the big savings and loan institution that regulators seized last summer.

"Federal officials said the payment, which will be spread out over 15 years, is the largest settlement ever in the failure of a banking institution. The failure itself is one of the largest in the last decade, one that some estimate could cost the government up to $1 billion."

Wonder how hard it would be to get some of that 460 million they owe the government forgiven if someone was in tight with the people in control of the government?

There is also a sister, Linda. Check her millions in contributions to Moveon, etc.

[michael]

Interesting, thanks Pagar. I wonder if in part she wasn't directing the bank to be liberal and opposed to 'redlining?'

[Pagar]

In addition to the Pritzkers, there are plenty of Others

"Obama's Money Cartel: How Barack Obama Fronted for the Most Vicious Predators on Wall Street"

I don't think it has anything to do with liberal or redlining. Remember that Obama has been supported through all his political efforts by Tony Rezko, one of the worse slumlords in Chicago

I think it has to do with ripping off the most vulnerable.

[BarbaraS]

Let's not forget the Hamas adulation in the Trinity church bulletin. A mutual admiration soceity? Or did Obama n ot see that one either