Yet Another Intelligence Assessment

Another intel chieftan steps forward with what the WaPo says is a less rosy view of the the world:

Intelligence Official Sees Little Progress Before Bush Exits

By Karen DeYoung
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, May 31, 2008; A10

Previewing the world for the next U.S. president, a top U.S. intelligence official this week predicted that the Bush administration would make little progress before leaving office on top national security priorities including an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement, political reconciliation in Iraq and keeping Iran from being able to produce a nuclear weapon.

A regenerated al-Qaeda will remain the leading terrorism threat, Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence Donald M. Kerr said. Pakistan's "inward" political focus and failure to control the tribal territories where al-Qaeda maintains a haven, he said, is "the number one thing we worry about."

Kerr's analysis, in a speech Thursday evening that he posited as a presidential intelligence briefing delivered on Jan. 21, 2009, contrasted with more optimistic administration forecasts of rapprochement among Iraq's political forces and a possible Middle East peace agreement in the next eight months. It also seemed at odds with CIA Director Michael V. Hayden's judgment that al-Qaeda is now on the defensive throughout the world, including along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.

However, less rosy doesn't seem to mean bad.  Here is his view on Iraq:

Kerr began the Jan. 21, 2009, "briefing" with Iraq, where he said al-Qaeda is weakened and violence has diminished. But Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's government "has had limited success in delivering government services and improving the quality of life for Iraqis," and "political accommodation will continue to be incremental."

Violence down, progress towards reconciliation - what were people expecting, "Mission Accomplished"?  One wonders whether Barack (who was sooo insightful on the surge) will insist on abandoning ship in this scenario.  In fact, the WaPo editors wonder just that, in an editorial hailing progress in Iraq:

If the positive trends continue, proponents of withdrawing most U.S. troops, such as Mr. Obama, might be able to responsibly carry out further pullouts next year. Still, the likely Democratic nominee needs a plan for Iraq based on sustaining an improving situation, rather than abandoning a failed enterprise. That will mean tying withdrawals to the evolution of the Iraqi army and government, rather than an arbitrary timetable; Iraq's 2009 elections will be crucial. It also should mean providing enough troops and air power to continue backing up Iraqi army operations such as those in Basra and Sadr City. When Mr. Obama floated his strategy for Iraq last year, the United States appeared doomed to defeat. Now he needs a plan for success.

Tricky - Obama recently crossed his heart and hoped to die and insisted that he would ignore his generals and commence immediate withdrawals (Philadelphia debate transcript).

Around the rest of the globe, Iran looks grim:

He said that the intelligence community has no reason to change its mid-2007 judgment that Iran had ceased work on designing a nuclear weapon in 2003. "But since the halted activities were part of an unannounced secret program that Iran attempted to hide," he said, "we do not know if it has been restarted."

Designing weapons was easy, he said, compared with producing fissile material with which to arm them, and Iran's uranium enrichment efforts, suspended in 2003 and restarted in 2006, still face "significant technical problems." While it is possible that Iran could produce enough weapons-grade enriched uranium by 2009, "that is very unlikely," Kerr said, although it "probably" could do so "sometime during the 2010-2015 time frame."

"We assess with moderate to high confidence," he said, "that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons."

FWIW, I have assessed with moderate to high confidence that if Saddam were still in power Iran would also be keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons.

Comments

[PeterUK]

It is is puzzling that many believe that Saddam Hussein (No relation) could be induced to give up nuclear weapons whilst Iran and North Korea do not.

[Terry Gain]

Even if this were true-which it's not- let's put the blame where it belongs, on the Democratic traitors and their media lap dogs.

If things are bad now- which they're not- wait until the 98 pound weakling is POTUS. Things will then be as bad -and worse -than is now claimed.

[PeterUK]

If it goes wrong the 98 pound weakling can always disown America.

[larwyn]

Doug Ross has the Roger STone on FNC transcript up

http://directorblue.blogspot.com/2008/06/transcript-rumored-michelle-obama-video.html

[Sara]

STONE:What other reason is there for her to stay in this race, other than hoping there is a bomb,...

Uh, maybe that she is now leading in the popular vote over Obama by over 200,000.

[Sara]

Darn.

[Pofarmer]

When Mr. Obama floated his strategy for Iraq last year, the United States appeared doomed to defeat.

Yeah, not so much. The MSM just can't deny the obvious any longer.

The only way we could have lost in Iraq was to quit. The only way we can lose now is to quit, and in addition, not back the Iraqi govt.

[Sara]

Here is the video of Stone's remarks to Geraldo:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nxMDb-NOmnk

[Pofarmer]

"But since the halted activities were part of an unannounced secret program that Iran attempted to hide," he said, "we do not know if it has been restarted."

Please remember that these are the same folks that missed the Weapons programs of India and Pakistan, not to mention AQ Kahns smuggling ring and Libya's nuclear program. The first notice we have of a successful Iranian nuclear program will probably be a big booooommmmmmmm.

[kim]

Sillies, evidence for a stopped program is a lot harder to get than evidence of a started program. Who is he trying to kid? Why isn't he selling used cars? Don't tell me; he tried and failed.
==========================

[Charlie (Colorado)]

“Go not to the CIA for counsel, for they will tell you both no and yes.”

[Neo]

Building a weapon shouldn't be that hard given the design that Plame & Co. provided as part of Merlin. Perhaps the next Democrat POTUS will give them the correction to the design.

[liontooth]

He said that the intelligence community has no reason to change its mid-2007 judgment that Iran had ceased work on designing a nuclear weapon in 2003. "But since the halted activities were part of an unannounced secret program that Iran attempted to hide," he said, "we do not know if it has been restarted."

In other words 'we' don't really know nuthin.

Your tax dollars at work.

[kim]

This deceiver is counting on his hearers assuming symmetry in intelligence about starting and stopping work, that is if we knew it was stopped, then we'd know when it was starting. But it is kind of like the difficulty of proving a negative. Evidence of starting is lying about to be examined; evidence of stopping would need penetration to high level decisions. The second is much harder to get. If they claim they've penetrated to gain the knowledge that the program stopped, they should certainly be able to tell if it has been re-started. I repeat, who is he trying to kid? Well, obviously, the ones he has fooled, most everybody.
========================================

[Extraneus]

I have assessed with moderate to high confidence that if Saddam were still in power Iran would also be keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons.

Did you mean Iraq?

[Neo]

I think he meant Iran .. if there had been no Iraq War, Iran would act the same.

[kim]

Nearly, Neo; they'd act MAD at Iraq.
======================

[narciso]

The fact that the report leaves out the Mousavian report, to the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei, means the report is less thsn worthless. If that were possible.

In the matter of the more permanent enemy, who the likes of Sen. Durbin sheds crocodile tears; the Wahhabi, or as the great explorer Charles Doughty
refers to as the Wahaby; all the way back in 1888.
Of the primary tribes of A'teyba (Uteibi)Katany,
(Quahtani) they are described this way. The latter
which would supply the 20th hijackers and irhabi
brethren in Baghdad and Fallujah and the preacher of the Grand Mosque siege:
"a noble blooded tribe, but reported to exceed all Aarabs in fanatical wildness and cruel malice. . .reputed to be anthropofagi. . .treachery in battle
Apparently, St. John Philby never read of this, or
Edward Said was right about Orientalism; the former seems more likely.

[narciso]

The fact that the report leaves out the Mousavian report, to the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei, means the report is less thsn worthless. If that were possible.

In the matter of the more permanent enemy, who the likes of Sen. Durbin sheds crocodile tears; the Wahhabi, or as the great explorer Charles Doughty
refers to as the Wahaby; all the way back in 1888.
Of the primary tribes of A'teyba (Uteibi)Katany,
(Quahtani) they are described this way. The latter
which would supply the 20th hijackers and irhabi
brethren in Baghdad and Fallujah and the preacher of the Grand Mosque siege:
"a noble blooded tribe, but reported to exceed all Aarabs in fanatical wildness and cruel malice. . .reputed to be anthropofagi. . .treachery in battle
Apparently, St. John Philby never read of this, or
Edward Said was right about Orientalism; the former seems more likely.

[kim]

It seems, n, that Wahabbi is ultimately autofagic. Witness the Awakening.
==============

[Rick Ballard]

I think I'll stick with Talisman Gate re Iraq and a dart board re Iran.

[boris]

Charlie, I read your post. Good except this was somewhat amusing ...

This, finally, because to make things make sense.

I may need some help with that.

[JHt]

Group think.

The Iraq no WMD was the CIA. They got caught having to have had operations officer training in WMD. This was done at certain Universities who's Presidents were hired by CIA. WMD is Rice, which is how the Russians figured it all out. So, CIA decided to use the 'inevitable' Bush war. CIA used Bush and started the war.

Afghanistan war was planned by the intelligence committee. This ended up with CIA running Congress. The product was Congress.

Was MERLIN Jordan?

WMD was the change from just nukes, DOE, to bio terror. Iraq had a lab and a doctor who made deal for freedom. No one knows where she is; but it was probably Plame since it's popular. Iran is the same. She got a laptop, but so did Los Alamos where she worked.

Hillary is Plame's pal. was the concern from the beginning. Maybe e is wondering if something ?

[KJgh]

Joe and Scott:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/no_20080530_2223.php

[Danube of Thought]

It's going to be a generation or more before anyone puts any reliance on the "assessments" of various people within the intelligence "community," or indeed on the NIE itself. These things have simply become vehicles for various intelligence analysts to air their policy views, or to inflence the policy-makers in accordance with their own agenda.

[Dave]

OT: No discussion on Scotty Mac claiming that Dubya should have fired Rove over Plameaquiddick? Scottie and the MSM are sticking with that even though Fitzy isn't?

[davod]

Is Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence Donald M. Kerr one of the three who experts who did the final edit on the latest NIE. Where has he been. Even the IAEA has come to the conclusion that the Iranians never stopped.

[davod]

Is Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence Donald M. Kerr one of the three who experts who did the final edit on the latest NIE. Where has he been. Even the IAEA has come to the conclusion that the Iranians never stopped.

[narciso]

If I think I know where you're going with this; the CIA never had a good grasp on counterproliferation of any kind; hence the need for the Rumsfeld Commission on ballistic missile defense. An example comes up in Richard Clarke's new screed (which I won't give the title to)to an incident where as a State Department analyst he discovered the Saudis had acquired Chinese
made silkworm missiles; and the 'community' wondered how that could be. Mrs. Plame, with
her masters from Bruges, (which I don't recall were in nuclear physics or biochemistry) was the authoritative expert
on the subject. The other major figure in the WMD game, Art Keller, was trapsing around the Tribal Areas, just a few years ago; and then announcing it on NPR! The most famous case, was the idea of sending an envoy with personal (Wife #1)and financial conflicts of interest,(Rock Creek Partners and the AlAmoudis) to discover tranferrals of nucleatr material,in another country. So you talk to the officials involved in this tin pot thugacracy of the year (the Tandja/Mayaki duo)and certify it; without a subsequent examination of the nuclear material at the source point (ie:the 1.6 tons of yellowcake at the Al Tuweitha reactor, at the time of
the American liberation. Now Merlin may not
have been in Jordan, but it may have been carried out in large part their; with the permission of GID director al-Battaki's successors. Two recent novels about the area, Ignatius's Body of Lies and even
Festerman's The Unlikely Spy; suggest we
trust the likes of these characters as far as we can throw them. After the fall of Baghdad, and going back to the first Gulf War; Jordan had been closely tied to the Baathists; (witness the whole Petra Bank imbroglio directed at Chalabi)and the Ilkwan based Hamas Islamist cohorts had a similar unccoperative relationship with the West to be charitable. After the Amman hotel bombing in 2006 (eerily presaged by the BBC miniseries "The Grid": they have
alas, become more responsive.

[Charlie (Colorado)]

Does anyone actually understand Narciso's posts, or are they just word jazz?

Anyway, Boris:

This, finally, because to make things make sense.

I may need some help with that.

Me too.

[MikeS]

I love narciso's posts. I have to admit I only get about 50% but I'm learning to trust him on the rest.

[Cecil Turner]

"But since the halted activities were part of an unannounced secret program that Iran attempted to hide," he said, "we do not know if it has been restarted."

The corollary, of course, is that we don't know if they ever halted it . . . or simply got better at hiding. To proffer that as a fact seems more like an article of faith than analysis. Can't argue with his bottom line, however, except that it doesn't go quite far enough: if the Iranians continue to work on the fuel cycle, the only logical answer is that it's eventually designed for a weapons program.

[clarice]

One Friday night let's all get drunk and write out own NIE.

[clarice]

**ouR own NIE**

[JM Hanes]

Charlie:

[With apologies to narciso for taking a certain liberty here!] I once copied one of his extended posts, pasted it into my word processor, eliminated all the extra returns and divided it into rough paragraphs. Et voilá! It all started making perfect sense to me. He offers up an encyclopedic range of connections, which I don't always get -- though when I occasionally resort to googling, the results are invariably interesting -- and has a wry sense of irony that I'd missed altogether when I was struggling with the more random formatting.

I only needed to do that experiment once -- now I just remind myself at the outset to push right through the line breaks till I hit some punctuation. Narciso has a unique take on events & context that I always enjoy reading.

[glasater]

I also appreciate narcisco's posts.

One day when I have some time--I'm gonna compile all of them:-)

Have gotten the best leads for books from what he writes.

[sbw]

[Little Plame-ish help, please] AP has written:

[McClellan] said Rove and Libby assured him they were not involved in leaking CIA operative Valerie Plame's identity, and he repeated those assurances to reporters.

In fact, both men had discussed Plame's identity with reporters, as confirmed in a later criminal investigation. Rove's lawyer maintains Rove never volunteered that information or actively sought to have it published.

Was Rove "involved"? If not, why not?

[sbw]

My sense is that if AP wants to convey a warped timeline and an inaccurate understanding they could suggest conspiracy between Armitage and Rove, but that would be misleading.

Armitage got Plame's name out into the public all on his own, independent of Rove or Libby, and probably because of Wilson's fat mouth.

[clarice]

He was called by Mandy Grunwald's husband,,then with Time...and asked about the President's welfare plan. That was pretextual, he really want to ask about the Plame/Novak thingy. Rove said "you heard that, too" and indicated he had no idea if it were true.
When the conversation occurred Rove was at the airport. Somehow there was no record of the call (perhaps because it had been re-routed to Rove from another person) and no independent recollection of it. Another Time reporter reported this "confirmation" story to Rove's lawyer and a further search turned up some record.
There was really no proof of any intent to lie or deceive the grand jury ergo no indictment.

In fact, the deception was all Mr Grunwald's --he tried to pass off what Rove had said to his editors as "confirmation" and they didn't buy it.

[Elliott]

One Friday night let's all get drunk and write out own NIE.

I think we would have to call it a planetary intelligence estimate (PIE), given our status as citizens of the world. Now I see why Hit and Run has been sounding the alarm on the Obamas.

[HoosierHoops]

clarice:
One Friday night let's all get drunk and write out own NIE.

Posted by: clarice

I am so there..But anytime i can claim part credit with your insite on a group effort..Forget you people.. I am so there! haha
Just leave us some spots to fill in..
It was 1999 and the Clinton NIE said...____________
And after about a 100 posts we'll be good to go..In fact.. it could be a great read..
See you friday night Clarice... :)

[clarice]

Make sure Soylent shows up. We need someone familiar enough with intell non-speak to take anything intelligible we may accidentally come up with, absolutely meaningless.

[HoosierHoops]

It's terrible watcing the news about the east side tornado's this weekend.
Fellow hoosiers walking away from a destroyed home with a garbage bag to thier name.
More storms are on the way..
I feel really bad about those that lose everything in the blink of an eye.

[Sara]

Elliott thanks for linking H&R's post, rereading it confirms it as a classic.

[RichatUF]

...he tried to pass off what Rove had said to his editors as "confirmation" and they didn't buy it...

At least the title ended with a question mark?™ Does his wife still work for RW or has she moved on as well?

[clarice]

She's apparently moved on from him. Rumor is they've been separated for about a year.

[Topsecretk9]

Scottie and the MSM are sticking with that even though Fitzy isn't?

It is interesting that Scott McCellan is either calling into question Fitz competence or reinforcing the obvious that Plame was not outed because she was not covert, hence no criminal charges for such.

[Topsecretk9]

Posted by: JM Hanes

I too love NarcISO's posts and I've also done to "cryptic commenters" post what you've done to Narc's in the word processor with not as much luck. Sometimes though.

[Topsecretk9]

In case anyone missed it, Sweetness and Light has a great round up on Why Does Anyone Believe Larry C. Johnson?

We have refrained from commenting on this preposterous rumor because it is such a transparent ploy from a man who is (in my opinion) a notorious America-hating buffoon and pathological liar.

Apparently, many people on the internet have the memory spans of mayflies.

[larwyn]

"shoe will drop on OBAMA regarding Michelle, tomorrow" Bob Beckel on FNC @ 6:23AM ET

He said he is hearing this from people he knows are credible. He thinks it is stupid of Repubs re timing.

He said it is a MAJOR SHOE. Was asked if it was worse than her thesis. He said much worse.

He also reported that all of Hillary's advance people were told to wrap it up in their states and return to HQ.

Now this could just be CLINTON COVERING HER TRACKS on the MAJOR SHOE!!

One of the leaders of the Black Cacus is going to come out for OBAMA TODAY as are others.

We may be able to gauge the reality of the MAJOR SHOE by how many actually do come out TODAY. SHOE to drop tomorrow.

Getting tired of picking popcorn out of my teeth. Don Surber just announced he's switched to potato chips.:::laughing::::

[Rick Ballard]

Thomas Lifson at American Thinker has been tempted into acknowledging the possible existence of a Farrakhan/Obama tape. Perhaps MarkO's dream will actually come true?

Beckel is just trying to cover the fact that the tape was dropped from Broom One.

[centralcal]

...shoe will drop tomorrow?

Is the theory of the Michelle tape still operative?

Hooray, I see Clarice is back in comments.

[kim]

Pooch et pack, what I find particularly intriguing is that n seems to understand cc better than the rest of us(we?) biyotches and dawgs do.
==================================

[narciso]

Come on now, we have Bill & Hillary 3.0, except Bill is more caffe 'au lait' and has more radical affiliations both domestic and foreign to be a caricature from a McCarry novel. (Ayers, Wright, Khalidi, Pfleger, Rezko, the Syrian 'entrepreneur' financed by
Iraqi expatriate Baathist fixtures like Nadhi Auchi, who employs a soft touch of 'libel tourism' to silence inquiring minds like Nick Cohen. His back channels to the Chavistas, the FARC, Hamas, the Shining Path are the only group's left off his dance card !He believes every 'peace and love' platitude that has come down the pike, about America's enemies. His entourage includes McPeak, the time serving version of Gen. George Brown, Brezinski, who one used to think was Carter's less embarrasing personal choice
(I know with Turner, the teetotaling Christian Scientist covert actions skeptic,
Vance, the white shoe Wasp pacifist retread,
Lake, well you get the idea) Brezinski however, was at the heart of every major catastrophe of the last 30 years. From going along with the Saudi/ISI preferred
pipeline to the mujahadeen (Hekmatyar,
Sayyaf,) the Iraq Baathist card against Iran, the ill conceived Huyser military mission to Iran, et al; to the 'pipeline politics that he thought recreated the
'Great Game' but was really just a campaign finance scam (re; Tamraz, Azima) or appeasement strategy. Now he just happens to second a theory of foreign policy influence (the Walt/Mearsheimer Israel Lobby theory)that so ignores the real
'elephant' in the room; the Saudi/emirati/
Wahhabi lobby it might as well have been drafted at the Saudi foreign ministry or GID headquarters. Add to this, you have Samuel Berger's chief of staff! Rudman,
who shouldn't be giving advice, she should
be before congressional committees explaining the purloined pre millenium
action memos. Instead we're debating Scotty's mewlings as an amateur truther
(you know that's next up on his path to oblivion)Bill's dating life, seriously you people weren't aware of this? Whether Michelle really screamed out, what we know
are her views anyways. While the Senate seriously considers a way to plunge the country toward $8.00 a barrel oil and brownouts galore.

[kim]

My fun thought today is that Tom C., son of Harriet C., is CC.

Once I said I wish cc knew what cc knows. I go back and forth on wondering whether the schtick is delusion or camouflage.
======================================

[kim]

Sing it, n; but you meant $800 a barrel, no?
=========================

[kim]

er, mebbe $8.oo per gallon of touring essence.
==============================

[kim]

Dano, who has a chance to become a famous fool if he would just stop restraining himself as the climate paradigm shatters, likes to characterize me as a kimbot on climate threads. I told him the answer to a Turing Test from his side was 'Milles Bores'.

I'm laughing all the way to the end of the journey.
==========================

[Rick Ballard]

Fox just scrubbed Sue's Alisyn Camerota link. Maybe it's a technical problem?

[kim]

A problem of technique, sure, Rick.
====================

[kim]

Gawd, wouldn't it be great if the Clintonistas could understand that there is a Vast Left Wing Conspiracy. I wouldn't want that whispered in Granny's ear. She might actually check for the bogeyman under the bed.
=============

[kim]

OK, watch this. Hillary for McCain's Veep.
=========================

[Ranger]

If there is a tape, and it drops in the next 12 hours, then it would definately be a Clinton operation to get it out. The optimal time for the Rs to drop this would be the day before the convention in Denver. Talk about Operation Chaos. If I were the Clintons I'd play it out by having Hil suspend her campaign this evening, then have the tape drop tomorrow so that Hil can 'reluctantly answer the call of duty' un-suspend her campaign, and 'do what must be done to rescue the party.'

[kim]

You mean, do what must be done to fight off Dean, Gore, Kerry, and who know what other Kos fool.

Notice I didn't even mention Silky Pony.
==================

[Topsecretk9]

Posted by: kim | June 03, 2008 at 09:18 AM

I know what you mean.

[hit and run]

Thanks to Elliott and Sara and Rick (on last thread) for the links.

I'm saying this here because the last thread is now too long for me to read on my BlackBerry...would that ThreadHerder were here (or TM!)

[larwyn]

SOROS will testify to Congress on HEDGE FUND SPECULATION IN ENERGY MARKETS
Just on CNN-O!

ROTFL!!

[larwyn]

Geradine Ferraro just on FNC saying it would be polite for everyone to wait until tomorrow to come out for OBAMA, to give Hillary tonight.

Ferraro isn't from Chi-Town is she:::laughing::::

Actually when she was on FNC on Sat or Sunday she said that she and her brothers were the REAGAN DEMOCRATS!

[RichatUF]

To go with larwyn's comment, a link to a write up of Soros's comments to the Senate Commerce Committee. I'll see if I can find a transcript of his full remarks.

I sense a disturbance in the force.

[Bill in AZ]

Rich, looks to me like Soros is practicing his theory of lieing "reflexivity".

I read that link you posted a while ago about his "theory" of reflexivity, and decided what he discovered is older than dirt. It's called lieing, and has been around since the first Adam amoeba came home late from the bar to find the first Eve amoeba waiting at the door.

His "reflexivity theory" basically says that if you lie convincingly, and especially if you have the wherewithal to nudge markets in the direction of your lie, people will follow and you can make billions if you position yourself properly.

I hope this is one case where he gets upside down, since he is doing it just to trash the economy for the election. Folks aren't driving, the refineries have got to be floating on refined fuel, dinnerjacket is running out of tankers to fill (what does he do now, fill palaces?), sooner or later it has to collapse. Contrary to what he says, there is no underlying support for oil where it is.

He has been successful so far with the scheme, but the timing is a bit off. The house of cards may collapse too soon, so he is having to shore it up.

[RichatUF]

Bill-

The house of cards may collapse too soon, so he is having to shore it up.

That is my guess. I was curious about his other remarks re: portfolio insurance and the 87 crash. The problem with the manipulation theory (not really a problem per se) is that it would have to involve countries to affect the oil market. The global oil trade is on the order of 10 billion a day with tens of thousands of players, its not a stock that a few traders can pump or front run.

[Bill in AZ]

All he has to do is lie and nudge - folks will do the rest as he has discovered over the years...

[cathyf]

JMH suggests a little reformatting magic on narciso, and you are so right. Let's try it again:

Come on now, we have Bill & Hillary 3.0, except Bill is more caffe 'au lait' and has more radical affiliations both domestic and foreign to be a caricature from a McCarry novel. (Ayers, Wright, Khalidi, Pfleger, Rezko, the Syrian 'entrepreneur' financed by Iraqi expatriate Baathist fixtures like Nadhi Auchi, who employs a soft touch of 'libel tourism' to silence inquiring minds like Nick Cohen. His back channels to the Chavistas, the FARC, Hamas, the Shining Path are the only group's left off his dance card !

He believes every 'peace and love' platitude that has come down the pike, about America's enemies. His entourage includes McPeak, the time serving version of Gen. George Brown, Brezinski, who one used to think was Carter's less embarrasing personal choice (I know with Turner, the teetotaling Christian Scientist covert actions skeptic, Vance, the white shoe Wasp pacifist retread, Lake, well you get the idea) Brezinski however, was at the heart of every major catastrophe of the last 30 years. From going along with the Saudi/ISI preferred pipeline to the mujahadeen (Hekmatyar, Sayyaf,) the Iraq Baathist card against Iran, the ill conceived Huyser military mission to Iran, et al; to the 'pipeline politics that he thought recreated the 'Great Game' but was really just a campaign finance scam (re; Tamraz, Azima) or appeasement strategy.

Now he just happens to second a theory of foreign policy influence (the Walt/Mearsheimer Israel Lobby theory)that so ignores the real 'elephant' in the room; the Saudi/emirati/ Wahhabi lobby it might as well have been drafted at the Saudi foreign ministry or GID headquarters. Add to this, you have Samuel Berger's chief of staff! Rudman, who shouldn't be giving advice, she should be before congressional committees explaining the purloined pre millenium action memos. Instead we're debating Scotty's mewlings as an amateur truther (you know that's next up on his path to oblivion)Bill's dating life, seriously you people weren't aware of this? Whether Michelle really screamed out, what we know are her views anyways. While the Senate seriously considers a way to plunge the country toward $8.00 a barrel oil and brownouts galore.

Posted by: narciso | June 03, 2008 at 09:21 AM

I'm still perturbed that even though I know that the carriage returns shouldn't be there, they still have so much effect on my (lack of) understanding of his posts.

[glasater]

Wonder if Soros is "short" oil.

He admitted on one interview recently that his hedge fund took a healthy hair cut last year.

But that could be another "untruth".

[RichatUF]

glasater-

I thought the short interest in oil evaporated about two weeks ago. We need to get Rick and cathyf in here to straighten us out.

I find it odd that the Dem's would put a convicted market manipulator on such a stage. Something is afoot.

[glasater]

Thanks Rich for the link.

Soros has an agenda that is uncomprehensible.

Didn't know he had been involved with Soc Gen in the late eighties but in his testimony today--that time frame was something he mentions.

Here is a link from Luskin to Soros on CNBC.

Soros and response

[RichatUF]

glasater-

Thanks for the link. Going to digest what Luskin said re is the WSJ op ed and what Soros said. Is it Soros reflexivity at work, I'm scratching my head? He's got his 4 horseman of the apocalypse though. One thing that really didn't make much sense to me is his claim of US interest rates and oil. I opened up my excel sheet with oil prices back to 1996 and just eyeballing it I doubt there is much correlation positive or negative.

Also I thought most of the index funds have come on line only recently, which might indicate that the top has been reached in the sector. I think back in mid to late 2007 a bunch of China funds launched and markets over there have declined some 30% off late 2007 highs.

[glasater]

Rich--As I'm listening to Obama's speech and thinking on what I heard on CNBC today--I fully realize that capitalism is under attack.
From Soros comments to folks on CNBC saying that the Wall Street business model does not work--the totality of it all makes me very discouraged.
Certainly hope that down the road, our host TM, you and Rick B can convince me otherwise.
Thank you for your response.

[cathyf]

One thing that really didn't make much sense to me is his claim of US interest rates and oil.

I'm too lazy to track down what he said, but the relationship between the spot price and the forward price of anything should be the cost of carry

F(t) = S*exp(r*t)+storage(t)

It's what equalizes selling the oil now vs. holding it in storage and selling later. What he should have been talking about is the relationship between the different futures prices on any particular day, not any relationship from day to day.

[glasater]

What Soros was testifying to today and making the comparison between today's high commodity prices to portfolio insurance of the late eighties.

Luskin refers to commodity index funds in this article--pointing out that they really are not driving up commodity prices. To me he makes a pretty good case.

[kim]

I can call spirits from the Friday Nights Lives.
=============================

[Rick Ballard]

"the totality of it all makes me very discouraged"

A steady propaganda barrage will do that. The WSJ has a very decent piece concerning the rather propable outcome of the speculative frenzy in the commodity markets:

Michael Greenberger, told seven angry members of the Senate Commerce Committee that 35% of U.S.-based trading in West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures has shifted to "dark markets," completely unregulated, by agreement with Britain. On these markets in particular, Greenberger said, a few hedge funds and three investment houses--Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan Chase--are controlling 70% of the speculative buying of U.S. oil futures and driving the price of oil steadily upward, while "ironically, issuing `predictions' that it's going to $200/barrel."

Dotcom bubble, housing bubble, oil bubble - all financed by the same group. That's why the Bear Stearns collapse and the possible Lehman collapse, which appears to be in the offing, make such cheering news. If CITI cracked and was followed by JPM, it would be even more cheering. It's not as if any of them are irreplaceble, any more than was Bear Stearns. People holding stock in these concentrations of thievery deserve every bit of the beating they are going to receive for believing in the "this time is different" fairy tales.

I remain very sanguine about the economic future of the US but rather than bore you to tears with demographic observations I would ask that you consider the economic situation of the ten or twenty families with which you have the most contact. Aside from whining about $4 gas, are any of them in dire straits due to other than poor decision making on their own part? I believe you live in WA where the current unemployment rate of 4.7% is only .3% higher thant it's historic low, set in April, 2007 - the depth of the Bush Depression, according to Dem propagandists.

Things could be a lot worse - you could be living in a true progressive hell such as MA or CA or MI. If that were the case I would suggest flight at the earliest opportunity rather than sticking it out and working for Dino Rossi's election. Gregoire needs to be sent packing this year.

[MikeS]

Didn't Abu Dhabi Investment Authority recently invest in CITI?

[RichatUF]

glasater-

I fully realize that capitalism is under attack.

Discouragment likes company. The thing about BHO's speech last night was that again he interspersed marxist and messianic rhetoric to a cheering stadium and fawning press. In part of his speech he launched into a surplus value riff then followed it up with the "cost" of tax cuts. He then said at the end of the speech he was going to stop the tides and heal the planet. I might be a bit cheeky, but not by much. I watched it and that sort of crowd reaction bothers me greatly and I look at the McCain camp and realize how uphill the climb is going to be. Obama is still going off on "100 years in Iraq" and has yet to be called on it, and listening to McCain's speech last night, of only bashing Bush and taking credit for the surge, isn't going to do it.

On the positive side, I know I'm not the only one who heard the marxist rhetoric in Obama's speech last night, isolationism and protectionism aren't as popular as the media likes to pretend, and Obama's appeal is confined to some tight demographic groups.

cathyf-

Thanks. I think I misunderstood the bit I was looking at in the question and answer period. If interested, here are his remarks. Pretty straightfroward for what it is, but I find it difficult to credit that an "oil bubble" or a "super bubble" over the last 25 years for the recent spike in prices today. Oil (and commodities in general) have been in a bull market for 10 years-in the mid-1990's capacity in oil was being idled because oil was so low and the US steel industry was bankrupt. His interperation of "peak oil" is also difficult to credit seeing as how Canada was able to P1 their tar sand fields in Alberta in late 2005 when oil was in the mid-50's. FWIW-he's the one with the billions of dollars and hagiographic press.

Rick-

This bit from your link:

Michael Greenberger, told seven angry members of the Senate Commerce Committee that 35% of U.S.-based trading in West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures has shifted to "dark markets,"...

Hummm, the Dubai Oil Borse opened in June (or July) 07 and uses the British Common Law by treaty. Interesting if it didn't even take them a year to start screwing with the markets. Wonder if anyone has studied the relationship between jizya and Islamic oil exporters?

[RichatUF]

Didn't Abu Dhabi Investment Authority recently invest in CITI?

Yes. The major islamic oil exporters all have extensive US portfolios.

[glasater]

Great comments and links and would like to add just one more that is of Maria Bartiromo interviewing Soros.
Think there are some others at the site that are more targeted in topic.

And yes, Rick, I'm involved in the Dino Rossi campaign in a small way. Living on the East side of the state--the more conservative side--makes the job much easier:-)

[glasater]

Here is one more horrible example of a travesty of justice. If you read the link on this trial of a muslim who killed people at the Jewish Federation Building in downtown Seattle--you might detect the thinking of folks living on the West side of this state.

Judge declares mistrial in the trial of Jewish Federation Shooter

I was hired by the Seattle-Times to do some photography for this case and talked with reporters covering it.

After the shooting the Seattle police went into a protective mode of all places--Mosques. There was some kind of mis-guided notion of retaliation.
Unbelievable!

[RichatUF]

Don't really want to mar up the top thread about Obama's AIPAC speech but wanted to take the time to go through the speech closely because it presents a significant danger to US-Israeli relations and an opportunity for McCain to clarify his national security and foreign policy positions.

It is going to be in multiple parts because I took hit and run's standing suggestion that it is always a good time to have a few beers and don't really think DoT's suggestion of exile is really all that productive.