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July 16, 2008


One is that people who live in states with few blacks seem more open to the idea of a president who is not white. Perhaps race is more of an abstract, an ideal.

I'm betting NYTimes guest columnist Timothy Egan didn't intend for these words to sound the way they do....


One is that people who live in states with few blacks seem more open to the idea of a president who is not white. Perhaps race is more of an abstract, an ideal.
Or, perhaps in states with few blacks, blacks are much more likely to intermarry with whites. And so whites are more likely to have a significant fraction of their contact with black people be contact with their own black relatives. And, perhaps more importantly in Obama's case, 1/2-black relatives.

Or--it's that racial and ethnic gerrymandering necessarily results in the worst sorts of all types being elected to office precisely by constantly stirring up grievances and Balkanizing everyone.
Wexler is as crazy as McKenney and neither would be elected in a more mixed district.

Rick Ballard

Obama Bear Market Report

Markets surged today on the basis of polling showing a collapse in support for Obama among the 18-29 age group which had heretofore been a mainstay to his popularity. Although the results of a single poll are relatively meaningless this far in advance of the election, a rally based on the concept that "what's bad for Obama is good for America" shows the depth and breadth of the fear which has swept the productive segment of the population since Obama shoved Senator Clinton off the stage some 41 days ago.

A well known Wall Street insider (who insisted upon anonymity due to the rumor of the existence of "Obama lists") noted: "It looks like the brainless punks are falling out of love with that gasbag. It's about time."

In other market news, NYT A flirted with $12 today, hitting an intraday low of $12.08 before settling at $12.59. There are rumors floating concerning a $1 million 'Dead Pool' based upon the exit of the papers publisher as soon as his gross incompetence forces a slash in the dividend.


The "big 3" are going with Obama to make sure their message (obama/them) is clear and no mistakes are made.

One benefit to McCain of the MSM being in Obama's pocket is that he doesn't get the useful feedback. The speech yesterday was an embarrassment to any but his most devoted followers, but all his admirers in the media won't tell him that, so he will continue to make the same mistakes. I'm wondering if this was the case for Kerry and Gore also.


I think it was, Jimmy.

Another lie exposed--along with more folderol by academics:There was no substantial post-invasion looting of Iraq's archeological sites. WAC (World Archeological Society) lied.


Barack HUSSEIN Obama (PBUH)(SAW)(SWT), the new Messiah!


With Obamas war of hatred against America in full swing, and escalating, there isn't a whole lot of humor going around about his presidential dreams these days. Being Americas greatest enemy from the inside isn't anything anyone can find a happy future in. And America is only beginning to pay the price for his life in Washington DC that is still only speculation at best.


and the Spitzer campaign says the spending’s legit.



My gawd, what on earth are democrats trying to cover up by pulling Valerie Plame out of mothballs? At what point will taxpayers say get over it and fix the GD oil crisis? $10 a gallon? $15 a gallon?


A new slogan for Obama,

"America Vote For Me, I Think You're Carp".

Danube of Thought

If Obama's poll support from young people has dropped so precipitously, why has there been no significant movement in the overall numbers?

I continue to think we're in the polling dead zone until Labor Day...



The poll that I think you are getting that from was the CBS/NYT poll and it was talking about the likelyhood to vote question. The enthusiasm has dropped off dramatically but recently. Since some pollsters are still doing Registered voter polling, they are not even asking the question nor are they trying to screen down to likely voters.

Other pollsters in my opinion, have listened to the pundits and believe the nonsense about the gap between Ds and Rs being about 10%. I think that is wrong, and the states that disclose voter registration by party bears me out.

It may be a giant polling smoke screen.

Just know that Gallup by themselves is the oldest polling firm and usually does a good job. If they say it +3 with RVs, its a lot tighter with a LV screen.

Then there is the potential for some Bradley effect on top of that.

Plus polls in general almost always bias against Rs, that is they find less Rs than make it to the polls.

Relax, Obama seems to be doing a fine job of slitting his own throat at the moment.

Rick Ballard


The 18-29 cohort has an electoral weight (VAP) of 20% and an average turnout weight of about 16%. It takes about a 6% shift within the cohort to move the overall vote 1%. The poll in question didn't indicate a shift to McCain, it indicated a shift in certainty of voting for Obama - buyer's remorse rather than a return in trade. If it had been an actual shift to McCain it would move the needle 4.6% versus the roughly 2% shift that RAS and Gallup show over the past couple weeks.

That cohort just stays home when the shininess fades - they won't be signing up for McCain.

I disagree about polling limbo being in place until Labor Day. I don't expect any huge moves - just a continued softening wrt America's Emptiest Suit.

hit and run

It's gonna be a great day!

You know who it's a really, really great day for?


And to Mr. Bad, a more fortunate man would be hard to find.


Oh, Hit! Now that's exciting! Pop the champagne and pass the caviar.


Happy Anniversay, Bad!

Danube of Thought

By "polling limbo," I mean that the polls taken in midsummer tell us next to nothing about the likely outcome. We have to weather the serious bumps that occur after each party convention; then we can begin to make some judgments.

About this time in 1988 Dukakis had a big lead over Bush I; Bush II led Gore by 18 after the GOP convention in 2000.


Happy Anniversary, Bad. And Lesley, I didn't forget you either. I thought of you while watching the fireworks.


Happy Anniversary, Bad! Mr. Bad is indeed a lucky fellow.


Happy Anniversary bad and Lesley

Perhaps we can find you a troll to beat up.



A very nice, very young and bright-eyed TexPIRG fellow just came to my door asking for money to support light rail. I politely told him I didn't support light rail, and why, and he was very nice about it, but I could tell he was annoyed. So now I feel like a jerk.

Ah, life on the prog plantation.

Danube of Thought

I might have told him that if light rail can't support itself without going door-to-door, it is doomed already.


DoT, great point. Wish I'd thought of it.


Happy Anniversary bad and Lesley!


The least you can do is email me a list of important celebrations before I wake up in the morning.



Did you guys see what Sarah Palin said today?

n my opinion, the debate about energy policy is no longer theoretical or abstract. Our failure to enact an energy policy is having real consequences for every American in their daily lives and has begun to affect America’s place in the world. Alaska is ready, willing, and able to assist the nation in addressing our acute and expanding energy needs. Like many other states, we would like the opportunity to help.

Congressional approval of responsible petroleum development in the coastal plain of Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) - the most promising unexplored petroleum province in North America - would be of incalculable benefit to my state and our nation.

In the last few weeks, proposals have been tabled to permit oil exploration and development in the 80 percent of the federal Outer Continental Shelf (OCS)which is off-limits to such activity. I strongly support OCS development in Alaska and elsewhere as a necessary component of a sound energy strategy. However, it makes no sense to consider the OCS and to ignore the possibility of exploration and development in highly perspective upland areas,including ANWR.

SHe's my choice for VP.


Via Instapundit, Obamatons' airbrushing of the present goes beyond his own website. Now Obama supporters are shutting down anti-Obama blogs run by other Democrats.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,382452,00.html>the story

hit and run

The least you can do is email me a list of important celebrations before I wake up in the morning.

Because it's you, I'll let you in on the email subscription list for half price.

Heh...kidding. I just found out about Bad this afternoon.

And I am very much hoping that Lesley informed us of her special day while I was on vacation, because I don't remember. If it wasn't during my vacation, then I'm claiming I was drunk.

I blame the fire water.

Happy Anniversary Lesley!


Jane, I like her, too. Maybe she'd do an interview with you for the show.


Happy Anniversary, Lesley and bad!


Oh, Lord. I don't know the protocol here. http://justoneminute.typepad.com/main/2008/06/the-chicago-way.html#comment-118873346>Lesley.

hit and run


(June 14th? let me check...yup I was drinking for sure)

Mr. Sue (Bobby Sue?) is my hero.


You know, I was struck from the beginning by Obama's instructions that his supporters not talk about policy. And I've never met one who will. So this orchestration - shutting down websites, aided by google when the Obamabots reported all negative sites as "span" is just part of this orchestration.

It seems a bit anti-American - like everything Obama does.


Sue too? What's it about June 16th that draws brides like a magnet?

hit and run

Obama gives a speech, on any subject, replete with veiled soaring rhetoric. Immediately he is lauded by his supporters, while his detractors are silent because it takes a bunch of time to plow thru the rhetoric and get to what he actually said.

Oh, gee, thanks. And for that I went and read his speech today.

Have you seen the headlines?

Obama warns against 'fighting the last war'

OK, my first thought was...oh, sure, he wants to moveon.org from the surge as the "last war" (hell he even called Iraq a distraction) to try and elide his stupid refusal to admit he was stupid to try and refuse Bush the room to implement the surge.

But oh no, he ain't movin' on at all:

It starts with the gravest danger we face – nuclear terrorism. One of the terrible ironies of the Iraq War is that President Bush used concern over this threat to invade a country that had no nuclear weapons program. In the meantime, Pakistani scientist AQ Khan was spreading to hostile nations the technology to produce nuclear weapons and the warheads to deliver them. But the fact that the President misled us into a misguided war doesn’t diminish the threat of a terrorist with a weapon of mass destruction – in fact, it has only increased it.


glenda waggoner

Great Job, Mr.&Mrs.bad!! many more...


My 32nd anniversary was July 2nd. Which is why Lesley and I were talking about fireworks. Her husband is deceased for 12 years now. They would have been married 24 years this past July 4th. http://justoneminute.typepad.com/main/2008/06/the-chicago-way.html#comment-118878364>Lesley. I'm sorry I wasn't clearer in my first post.

hit and run

Jane, today is Bad's anniversary.

On June 14th, according to her link, Sue told us her anniversary was July 2nd, even though she had wanted it to be on the 4th, and then Lesley told us her anniversary is on the 4th.

It's complicated.

In fact, that's why I drink. So I'll have an excuse for not remembering.


Mr. Sue (Bobby Sue?) is my hero.

Bobbby Sue? Uh...no. ::grin::


Well shoot. It posted before I finished.

Ricky Bobby...

hit and run

And even after I went back and read your link I missed that about Lesley. Now I see it. Dang.

I hope the fireworks were spectacular out on the lake, Lesely.

On our cross country trip, we almost made the side trip to SD to see Mt Rushmore. But it was just too long of a journey to make any side trips...


What's it about June 16th that draws brides like a magnet?

It must have something to do with the 2008 British Open champion.


Not a chance Elliott. he'll choke as always. He may not even make the cut.

(fighting words)


Golf doesnt count if Tiger's not in the equation


If I hear one more time Obama was right on the war in Iraq, I'm going to toss something at the television. McCain needs to start getting his message out that Obama has been wrong on everything he has ever done.


Happy Anniversary to our JOM-ers - Bad and Lesley!

Dinner bell is ringing, but I didn't want to miss out on all of the good wishes!



Sarah Palin is so far ahead of any other choices for VP that it isn't even funny. Romney would be okay but Palin would be killer. I guarantee you that McCain will win if he picks her. And she wants the job.

I can't believe all these *#@$!!%+ who keep on mentioning losers like Tom Ridge. I'm sure he'd bring at least 3 or 4 extra votes to McCain.


"Golf doesnt count if Tiger's not in the equation"

Jane and I agree with you BobS!

Happy Anniversary Bad and Lesley!!!


Way OT

Has anybody been watching "So You Think You Can Dance" on Fox. It beats the NEWS and it is really good. Believe it or not, my macho husband got me watching it. (The girls are beautiful so you JOM guys would like it too.)


Thank you very much for your kind felicitations everyone. The Flinstones ROCK!! Dinner was excellent, creme brulee for dessert. We are tucked away in a romantic hide-away with our two youngest bads and two of their friends. The moon is beautiful on the ocean tonight. Makes me want to stay awake all night just to enjoy it. We are blessed.


Awww bad, sounds heavenly. Enjoy!


Well, bad, it is a bit hard to understand why you didn't invite us all...............


Woah, bad! I am so jealous - creme brulee - ocean - moonlight!

Honey, you deserve every moment. Enjoy, enjoy, enjoy! We will all just sit back and envy, envy, envy!


The moon on the ocean...one of my favorite things.

Thinking of you bad. Good to hear you are having fun.


What does Romney bring to the table? States like Michigan, Colorado, Utah? A proven track record in the business world and lots of money? A true conservative thoroughly vetted with an impeccable background? Victory?

If McCain doesn't pick Romney, it's further proof to me that he doesn't give a rat's a** about the GOP.

bad...may the next 25 be filled with love.


I know, I bore all of your with my media watch - but they are gasping their last breaths and they are still in denial as to the cause of their disease.

People don't trust them. Don't want to read them anymore. Advertisers are moving on. Yet, they just don't get it. So, they just keep getting worse - more biased - more propagandistic (is that a word?) - more out of touch.

The king is dead. Long live the (new) king!



Romney is also a great choice..

We are tucked away in a romantic hide-away with our two youngest bads and two of their friends.
Um, bad? Perhaps we ought to review the definition of "romantic"? Typically it doesn't include bringing the kids along... ;-)

(Although DH and I still remember with fondness our 10th anniversary spent in the indoor playland at the Hardees...)

Soylent Red

Typically it doesn't include bringing the kids along...

Or JOMing. You'd think by 25 years you'd have figured that out.

Happy anniversary anyway.

As for vice president...

You all know my mind on this: pick someone who takes away a key group (or weakens a hold on a key group).

Romney is fine for establishing conservative cred. I don't believe that's necessary this time around. The prospect of an Obama presidency is too grave.

Palin would be good, as would Fiorina, as either would not only guarantee Republican credibility with women, but would add a necessary skill set to the ticket. Additionally, they force a certain kind of play out of the Obama camp.

I, of course, would like to see a black conservative on the ticket. That would eliminate Obama's racism defense, and return the whole thing back to issues. Take away Obama's uniqueness, and he literally has nothing to bring.

But what do I know about politics or anniversaries?

Charlie (Colorado)

SHe's my choice for VP.

Is it too late to run her for Prez?


I'm with Soylent, Bad. Enjoy the moon! JOM can wait.

I, of course, would like to see a black conservative on the ticket.

Me too. I wish for a Justice Thomas on the ticket.


It always amazing to see a twit of a politician use such convoluted logic to make himself look superior. What an exercise in banality.

Why doesn't Obama just tell us that without the courage of al Qaeda in Iraq to needlessly slaughter innocent Iraqis, this victory could not be possible.


"I, of course, would like to see a black conservative on the ticket."

I don't think that's the right move in this situation. McCain needs a wedge pick.

Definitely a woman like Palin. That would consolidate the Hillary women. They could care less about Obama's race card. She also glamorous enough to dull Obama's "uniqueness" edge, as you say, but not in an obvious, me-too way that a black male would.


Good Morning everyone!

When is Obama leaving on his world tour? Katie Couric, Charlie Gibson and the other guy are going. I guess they expect something newsworthy to happen. I predict he will unite the world! we just don't know behind whom yet.


Good Morning Jane and everyone!
I think America knows who he plans to unite with, many just don't to admit it.


Good morning! The Rainbow Coalition is calling for Jesse to leave the organization for using the N word. (Kidding! But I expect the feigned outrage over the use of words like "niggardly" and "black hole" has now lost its footing and Imus is safe with "nappy haired".)
I think there's going to be absolutely no news today so enjoy yourselves!


Hail, JOM dawn patrol.


It's only a flesh wound, Jane.


Oh dear Elliott, last I checked he was 9 over. Bummer.


you know, i'm pretty much ruined, i didn't know i could sit and watch johnny winter on the interweb all night, holy smokes, too much seconol for certain, i think i gootta' go to rehab,


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