One Day More

I don't think people swing by here for breaking news from the financial markets, but as of 7:38 on a Wednesday morning both the dollar and the Dow have saddled up their comeback ponies.  The dollar is at 1.5709 on the Euro FX futures and the Dow futures are up 53 to 11617 (S&P up 6.5 to 1280.70).  The Brent (127.44) and natural gas futures are down (Crude is flat, but I am guessing it is not trading).  So it's all good. 

My Bold Prediction - the markets want to believe.  Stocks go up, financials rally, and so does the dollar.  Let's see how that looks at the end of August.

Comments

[TMF]

I think I feel a tingle up my leg!

[TMF]

I certainly hope your right

Just got my 401 K statement- its an ugly picture. Up, up, up and then boom! 2007-2008- down, down, down

If that continues Ill be working until im dead

[Peter]

If you want to know what will happen to the euro,look no further than the carbon trading emissions policies and the renewable commitments.All there in black and white,an economic suicide pact.

[Pofarmer]

The only problem right now is that a stronger $ could be deadly for the Ag sector.

[sammler]

An hour later, and it looks different. Never underestimate randomness.

[GMax]

The market has been a bit bipolar of late, but better than the unipolar and straight down of June. I would say that the market does want to believe and I am seeing a correlation between Barack stumbles and market jumps. Maybe just coincidence but smart money seems to think blunders by Obama may be good news for the market. A market once accused of irrational exuberance is practicing cold calculated realism?

[Rick Ballard]

GMax,

Obama being out of the country might stimulate a brief rally in the Obama Global Bear Market but the real "buy" signal won't come until he is defeated in November.

His promises to disable the economy in the name of immiserative progressivism are the only things he has said that are believable.

AP continues to ignore the bleeding obvious in their reporting on the oil price chasm - the "news" is that the President made a rather simple gesture which must be accompanied by Congressional action in order to be effective. Funny that AP missed that...

[GMax]

September 30 the congressional ban expires without action. It has been historically tucked into the budget but I am sure the Senate Republicans and Bush will not allow this to escape sunlight. And if they pass it right before the election, the voters will take it out the hides of lots of unotherwise reelectable Dems in the House. Seems to me the market believes the Dems will be forced to allow some more supply, however grudgingly and slowly they go about it.

[Pofarmer]

Did anyboyd else hear the Harry Reid comment, either Yesterday or the day before? Something very close to "We are not against development of U.S. energy resources, but it should be responsible developement."

I think I'm sensing the first flip of a flop here.

[JB]

Si, si puede!

[GMax]

OT

Clarice you are going to love this one. Fox News caught Wexler at his Maryland home and asked him about his listed residence in Delray. He confirmed that. The Fox news guy then asked, "you live with your mother in law". The snared trout look in Wexler's eyes was priceless. He confirmed his in laws owned the house that he claims as his legal residence, the only way he is allowed to run for election from that congressional district.

Could not happen to nicer SOB in my opinion.

[sbw]

[OT] An MPR Public Insight Network producer invited comments on GOP's future. I responded. She thanked participants and I replied:

Molly,

If you want insight on issues before the convention, you are welcome to come late to the party at Just One Minute. JOM blog is my everyday link to sanity in a world where, oblivious to the danger, feeling has overtaken thought:

http://justoneminute.typepad.com/

If you do, and hang around, your initial entry might be jarring for having missed the gathering of evidence that makes many regulars strident. And any sophomoric nicknames are the way people deal with absurdity. But they are caring and filled with humor. They believe in evidence, not opinion. And if they are Republican, it is only because they have adopted positions that make good sense and many Republicans may have adopted similar positions based on evidence or intuition.

Newbies visit regularly and are welcome, but some are sock puppets who spew cant. Those fools are not suffered gladly and are chewed up and spit out. But visitors with honest questions have them fielded with references so you can drill down to the sources. This is not like most liberal blogs where cheap rhetorical arguments are used to silence arguments.

So put on a false moustache if you want, so as not to appear as part of the boy-have-they-proven-to-be-liberal media. Or come as you are. They know I am a daily newspaper publisher. I've learned a lot. And contributed a bit.

If you want to understand issues -- from the sensible and not necessarily Republican perspective -- visit Tom Maguire's Just One Minute.

Regards/Stephen

PS. On JOM, LUN means Link Under Name.

[/OT]

[Danube of Thought]

I'm confused as to what happens re the oil ban on September 30. If the congress does not act, can drilling and exploration begin? I got the impression was that congressional action was required in order for that activity to commence; e.g. Pelosi saying she wouldn't allow it to come to a vote.

Hey--Can't we talk about John Edwards some more?

[Rick Ballard]

SBW -

JOM - where fools are gladly made to suffer.

TM apears to be maintaining his "contrary indicator" standing (for the time being). The DOW is off 30 at the moment. Oil is still down though. The Wily E. Coyote Paradigm is showing some prolonged weakness.

[Jane]

On JOM, LUN means Link Under Name.

I feel positively FAMOUS. Could this be as big as "pajama's media" or the "blogosphere"?(Not a chance Jane, now sit down)

I'll talk about John Edwards. I want to know what his wife said.

[clarice]

DoT-I believe you have that wrong. If Congress does not extend the ban on Sept 30, the ban is off.

GMax ,I've been paying attention to the Wexler bit--you know how I despise him. Noe, hw will race to find a place to rent, and there is no time for a removal petition, even if Fla allowed one..But it will be interesting to see if he paid income taxes in Md. If he did, he clearly lied when he claimed Fla residence. If he said he was a resident of Fla where there is no income tax, Md should have a tax fraud claim against him.

[sbw]

Rick -- much better phrasing, and the relish slathered on adds to the flavor.

Jane -- It took me the longest time to figure LUN out!

[hit and run]

Rick:

AP continues to ignore the bleeding obvious in their reporting on the oil price chasm - the "news" is that the President made a rather simple gesture which must be accompanied by Congressional action in order to be effective. Funny that AP missed that...

So as the price of oil falls...Democrats have made the argument (and some Republicans, even McCain) that speculators have artificially driven up the price of oil.

Now, as prices fall, they will probably make the argument that their efforts to reign in speculation is a big cause of that.

Phooey!

In a market where oil prices are falling, wouldn't it be nice to have speculators with the ability to take what has been a $21 drop in prices -- and speculate the hell out of it to a $42 drop? A $63 drop?

Why are the Democrats standing in the way of letting speculators drive the price of oil down?!!?!!????!!!?!

We Need More Speculators!!!

[Jane]

My goodness, I caught a bit of the Messiah's press conference - gawd he sounds just stupid.

[clarice]

GMax--Here's Md Law on residency:
http://marylandlaw.blogspot.com/2007_03_01_archive.html

What establishes whether or not you're considered a Maryland resident? The answer seems to depend on what the issue is. The Maryland MVA requires you to obtain a MD drivers license 60 days after you become a resident of the State. So, when are you a resident of the State? COMAR 11.11.06.02 defines a resident as someone who: (1) Owns, leases, or rents a primary place of residence in Maryland for more than 6 months; (2) Has no other residence in any other state or country (see COMAR section for further details). For income tax purposes, the definition is similar. There, a resident is defined as: 1. is domiciled in this State on the last day of the taxable year; or 2. for more than 6 months of the taxable year, maintained a place of abode in this State, whether domiciled in this State or not (Tax General Article of the MD Code 10-101). Finally, as far as voter registration, the Maryland Law Encyclopedia quotes Roberts v. Larkin, 340 MD 147, 1995 as defining residence as "the place of a person's fixed domicile."

[Jane]

It took me the longest time to figure LUN out!

Probably because I wasn't clear. Sorry bout that.

[bad]

Jane

He certainly spent a lot of time explainling his previous statements and seemed a touch surly in doing so.

[sbw]

Oh, Jane, keep using it. The purpose of jargon isn't only to make life easier; it's also to make insiders feel special. ;-)

[bad]

In retrospect, all of the re-explaining of previous stsements is probably just a brilliant strategy by Obama's advisors to keep him from saying something new that is inartful. A twenty minute presser becomes a one minute presser...

[Rick Ballard]

"gawd he sounds just stupid"

Let's not exclude the probability that "sounds" or "seems" mask the reality of "is".

[bad]

Here's a quick read on Obama's entourage.

LUN

[centralcal]

DOT: Hey--Can't we talk about John Edwards some more?

Less talk, more photos. What kind of tabloid is the crappy NE if they don't have photos of Silky Pony leaping over stair wells? And, if they have photos, what d'ya suppose they are saving them for?

[clarice]

https://doe.dos.state.fl.us/gen-faq.shtml#link5
GMax--here's the Fla law re residency requirements to run for Congress.
I've called his office and asked if he has a formal statement and whether he will make his income tax returns public.

[bad]

Clarice

Can he run out and rent an apartment to cover his butt?

[MayBee]

I know when I moved out of Florida and rented out my house, they worked hard to find I was no longer living there (so I couldn't get my property tax break).
Florida does care about people only pretending to live there.

[clarice]

He can run out and rent one for THIS election I suppose, but the Fla law says he had to be a resident when he ran.
Of course the Fla courts are rather corrupt so it'll be interesting to see how this plays out.
In a more normal district the penalty would be inflcited by the voters but this district is very largely old, Jewish condo commandos whose major source of news are the local versons of Pravda.

[clarice]

What are the odds he's not been paying Md taxes? (Higher I'd say than the vaunted 70% chance someone set as the odds for Rove's indictment.)
And that I think poses his biggest problem--a conviction for tax evasion in Fla. In fact, the House ethics committee ought to be looking at this if they are not already.

[Porchlight]

bad, thank you for that link on Obama's entourage. It didn't give any estimates of the cost of the trip, but it did have this:

McCain visited the Middle East and Europe in March as part of a congressional delegation, which was paid for by taxpayer dollars, thus limiting the number of staff he could bring.

Since per the article Obama is bringing a huge staff along with him, I guess we can assume we're not paying for it. I can't even begin to imagine the expense; evidently the MSM can't either since we've heard bupkis about it.

[MayBee]

Ha, Clarice, good point. I forgot the glorious days of no state income taxes as a Florida resident.

The funny thing is, if Wexler really did move into the MIL's house with his kids, those condo commandos would have taken him DOWN in a way the state apparently doesn't dare.

Do not cross the condo commandos.

[interested]

I am surprised you and others have not discerned the obvious implications of the lastest market moves.

Stocks are known to take into account future economic events, and thus typically begin downturns before actual economic data turns down. See March 2000 peak of S&P 500 followed by the March 2001 beginning of the recession.

It works typically the same way on the upside. For example, see August 1982, when the market turned upward sharply while unemployment and inflation were still in high single or low double digits.

The conclusion?

You heard it hear first: the Obama rally has begun.

:)

[RichatUF]

DoT-

If the congress does not act, can drilling and exploration begin?

I think you're right regarding the Off Shore Drilling Ban. I think it has to do with the revenues generated. Since the Dept of Interior doesn't have a framework after the ban itself expires to price the leases or oil and gas royalities Interior can't start parceling out exploration plots.

[bad]

Porchlight

I like McCain's guy's reaction to the size of the entourage.

Who does he think he is?” Rogers asked of Obama. “Clay Aiken?”

[Pofarmer]

"the only way he is allowed to run for election from that congressional district.

Could not happen to nicer SOB in my opinion."

Did the same organization Vet Wexlers residence as vetted Barack Husseins birth certificate?

[bad]

You heard it hear first: the Obama rally has begun.

More likely a reaction to his loss of inevitability...

[clarice]

**And that I think poses his biggest problem--a conviction for tax evasion in Fla [i]or Md[/i]***.

[clarice]

RichUF--That's an interesting point at odds with what I read. The executive order Bush signed permitting leases for OSD runs beyond his term. I wonder if it sets provisions for such leases in the absence of Congressional action and whether it would be constitutional if it did.

[sylvia]

Yeah, I'm not quite so optimistic. I think the downturn will continue until the real estate market pricing settles. We've got the pricing on all goods going up I think to offset the inflationary real estate prices. The valuable house you own will not be so valuable in 10 years when 1 million dollars will buy you say about $500,000 of todays goods.

I think the main fault for this was the Feds keeping the mortgage and home equity interest rates so ridiculously low a few years ago. I've been hearing about the supposed lending scandals in the mortgage banks, but the real scndal was the Fed and the crazy low interest rates, which caused housing prices to soar, thus causing inflation elsewhere. That is one thing I agree that Bush did not do so well on. One could argue that that was necessary to stimulate the ecomony after 9/11 and was the lesser of two evils, but I'm not sure on balance it was, and/or may have been too much for too long.

[RichatUF]

I may be wrong clarice. I read a bit over at Powerline (can't find the link) that had some dense sections of the law (47 USC 1337) so what I wrote seemed to be implied.

However, I hope the oil compaines give the finger to congress and start looking October 1. Its ridiculous: To our north in Greenland they have found 20+ billion bbls offshore, to our south Brazil has found 40+ billion bbls offshore, and across the pond Nigeria (the place of greatest exploration in West Africa) has found 30+ billion bbls. I suppose the US Atlantic coast could be the geological odd ball and no oil will be found but it seems improbable.

[GMax]

Let me guess on Wexler. Similar to Chris Dodd, the pompous ass ( which is also a great description of Rep Wexler ) this douche will feel entitled to freebies and above the law and he will no doubt be hounded enough that it will ultimately be apparent that he claimed every benefit and exemption available to him in Maryland as a resident and will still claim he lives in MIL home for congressional residency purposes. Delray Beach is not the best location in his district, so I cant see such a guy ever living there, I would guess he even hates to visit.

But he we have congressional Democrats under indictment in Lousiana, others who defaulted on home loans in California, so what is a little tax cheat in Florida?

Two things of import. All of the cads I mentioned above have the luck to be serving in areas with overwhelming numbers of the two highest support % for the Democrat Party. That being blacks and jews. You would think both would begin to wise up, but alas if that is happening it seems damn glacial in movement.

[cathyf]

Just a little comment about the over-55 rule that is apparently in effect at the MIL's condo association... Carrying the classification of "senior citizen housing" is the only way that a landlord/condo association can legally exclude families with children. This has fairly serious quality-of-life issues for the residents, in that these places are often designed and built with seniors-only use in mind. So there is not enough space for teenagers to hang out, and the insurance company's rates on the pool and other recreation areas assumes that the usage is exclusively or at least overwhelmingly adult.

The housing-discrimination folks are pretty nasty about enforcing that the "no kids" rules are only being applied by legitimate senior citizen complexes, and so the condo boards (or landlords) are pretty on top of enforcing the rules about keeping under-55's below a certain percentage and kids totally out. Which is going to leave Wexler hung out to dry.

I suspect it's even more complicated -- he is reported not only to have a residence in MD, but also DC as well. Where does he pay taxes as a resident, and where as a non-resident? If he claims that he is a FL resident, and pays non-resident taxes to DC (where he works), then he neither works nor is resident in MD, right?

Actually, I'm curious about how this is supposed to work... Congresscritters who are legitimate residents of their districts clearly work in DC, and clearly need to have some sort of place to sleep in DC, MD or VA when the Congress is in session. (Yes, I am old enough to remember when congressmen were not automatically multi-millionaires, and often times would go in as roommates with other congressmen in modest apartments.) I would think that figuring out the tax implications would be well-known...

[cathyf]

Just a little comment about the over-55 rule that is apparently in effect at the MIL's condo association... Carrying the classification of "senior citizen housing" is the only way that a landlord/condo association can legally exclude families with children. This has fairly serious quality-of-life issues for the residents, in that these places are often designed and built with seniors-only use in mind. So there is not enough space for teenagers to hang out, and the insurance company's rates on the pool and other recreation areas assumes that the usage is exclusively or at least overwhelmingly adult.

The housing-discrimination folks are pretty nasty about enforcing that the "no kids" rules are only being applied by legitimate senior citizen complexes, and so the condo boards (or landlords) are pretty on top of enforcing the rules about keeping under-55's below a certain percentage and kids totally out. Which is going to leave Wexler hung out to dry.

I suspect it's even more complicated -- he is reported not only to have a residence in MD, but also DC as well. Where does he pay taxes as a resident, and where as a non-resident? If he claims that he is a FL resident, and pays non-resident taxes to DC (where he works), then he neither works nor is resident in MD, right?

Actually, I'm curious about how this is supposed to work... Congresscritters who are legitimate residents of their districts clearly work in DC, and clearly need to have some sort of place to sleep in DC, MD or VA when the Congress is in session. (Yes, I am old enough to remember when congressmen were not automatically multi-millionaires, and often times would go in as roommates with other congressmen in modest apartments.) I would think that figuring out the tax implications would be well-known...

[clarice]

cathyf-John fund says Congress passed itself a deduction for the 2d home in or near DC. Here's Wexler's problem..He obviously has picked Fla as his place of residence and Fla has no income tax at all, but if his "residence" there is a sham he could possibly be violating both Maryland tax laws and Florida election laws.

[Rick Ballard]

Markets did mark Obama's absence from the country by not falling any further - I wouldn't call it a rally, exactly, but they didn't drop any further.

A new poll shows energy moving to second place as an issue on the same day McCain correctly credits Bush for knocking down oil prices.

And, oh, BTW - a new USGS report shows 12 years worth of oil sitting under those damn caribou (part of the 'slow peak' oil phenomena).

[hit and run]

Rick:
A new poll shows energy moving to second place as an issue on the same day McCain correctly credits Bush for knocking down oil prices.

And McCain was supposed to be helicoptering out to an oil rig tomorrow. But because of bad weather, trip's been cancelled.

Obama caught a break, there.

Or did he?

McCain was reported to have said, "Who is this? Even the wind and the waves obey him."

[clarice]

I see an opportunity-- a flight to Alaska and a call for exploration of ANWR--With some caribou licking his face.

[hit and run]

Not holding my breath on that one.

[clarice]

He admits he hasn't lived in Florida since 1997 but claims under his reading of Florida law he still is a resident of that state.

< a href-http://www.newsradio610.com/cc-common/news/sections/newsarticle.html?feed=&article=3995413>I used to live there

[clarice]

http://www.newsradio610.com/cc-common/news/sections/newsarticle.html?feed=&article=3995413>Wexler:I used to live there

[Ranger]

I wonder if someone could sue Wexler for fraud in civil court filing to run?

BTW, it is a pretty sad statement about the US press corps that he hasn't lived in his district for 10 years and we are just now finding out about it. You would think the fact that his kid doesn't go to a local school in his district would have tipped someone off.

[clarice]

Well, most Congresscritters have 2 residences. Some have their principal residence here, others in their home district. But he pushed the envelope by not even having an apt that he owned or leased in his district--he does get some money for that purpose.

(Most of the liberals whose families live here, either live in swank subrurbs and send their kids to some of the best public schools in the nation or--if they live closer in--send them to private schools as they vote against vouchers for kids who haven't enough money to follow their lead.

[Elliott]

One day more and one installment more. Part one is here (and no, the change in spelling of one of the character's names halfway through was not intentional). Part two follows:

Washington, D.C.

James Rawlson, the man in charge of computer security at the Department of State, was hazarding a cautious glance at his in-tray when he was disturbed by his secretary's voice over the intercom. It announced a visitor, one of his deputies. Rawlson had three deputies. Of these he disliked two, reserving most of his disdain for Leonard St. John, the man who at that moment was walking into his office.

Rawlson wasn't entirely sure why he harbored such animus. It was true that St. John's inability to hear someone pronounce his last name "Saint John" instead of "Sinjin" without offering correction was trying, but St. John was the top performer among his deputies. He was also the youngest. Sometimes Rawlson worried that he was looking for ways to rationalize a burgeoning envy, but this worry never lasted past the next time St. John referred to him as "Jim."

"Big news" began St. John. "It's probably in your in-tray, but I wasn't sure you'd gotten to it."

"I hadn't," said Rawlson, annoyed at the was St. John's tone always seemed to imply that others weren't on top of things the way he was.

"Well, the investigation into those breaches of our presidential candidates' passport files has turned something up. The boys from Jersey were pretty surprised," continued St. John.

"The boys from Jersey" was a reference to the State Department's large team of computer security experts, the implication being that the poetic place of origin for those with their skills was Hackensack, N.J. St. John had coined the term. He was still the only one who had ever used it.

"Really?" asked Rawlson.

"They'd been led to believe they'd simply confirm that our employee and contractors were telling tales," said St. John, who had skipped over the interruption but now paused, as he reached the point at which he desired his boss to interject.

Rawlson was quite taken with St. John's choice of words. He wondered whether all State Department employees were innately averse to the word "lie" or whether they learned to avoid it in a special training course he'd never been sent to.

"And they haven't?" he asked after allowing the silence to last long enough so that St. John was clearly uncomfortable.

Rawlson was feeling a great deal of trepidation over the turn the investigation had taken. He'd expected it to be a run of the mill security breach, albeit one that had made the newspapers. Now he had an inkling of what was to come, but he'd let St. John have the satisfaction of enlightening him.

"That's right, Jim," replied St. John.

"Not our job to make sure people are careful so other employees can't sneak onto their computers," said Rawlson, adding what had become a refrain, "We just tell them what to do and clean up the mess when they don't."

At the moment he finished speaking, Rawlson thought he might have made a misjudgment. Perhaps, this breach of security was as it had first appeared. Then the smug grin he'd expected began to form on St. John's boyish face and Rawlson's moment of doubt was over.

"That's true, sir. But it is our job to protect our databases against surreptitious attacks that originate in mainland China."

"Yes it is, Lenny," said Rawlson, noting how hard St. John was trying to suppress his rage at being so addressed. "Get everyone on that, right away."

Once St. John had departed, Rawlson went to a small desk in the corner of his office where an odd looking telephone was to be found. Speaking softly to himself he said, "The troops of Midian will soon be prowling round," as put his trembling hand on the receiver. In nine years he had only twice before had need of the encrypted line that connected him with Fort Meade, Maryland.

[clarice]

Clapping, elliott.

[Elliott]

Thank you, Clarice. I'm glad you enjoyed it and I hope future installments will not disappoint.

[clarice]

I'm sure they won't.
Jane's post about Barack's Olympic buy makes me think we ought to rename him Barack Jong-Il.

[hit and run]

Brilliant, Elliott. I do have to ask -- do you have a schedule you are anticipating? I ask because getting hooked on these, like Soylent's, means days of disappointments when I need a fix and none is available.

[narciso]

Actually hiking interest rates for 18 consecutive monthes from 2004 on; probably had more to do with the resets, and the insuing economic distress. Seeing as Fanny Mae acquired a sizable portfolio in the secondary market, along with Bear Stearns,
Lehman, and Goldman (does everybody from Chief of Staff to Treasury, have to come from Goldman)which were subsequently affected.

[Soylent Red]

Nice work Elliott. Now I've got to produce...

[Thomas Jackson]

Let's see 50 billion for AIDS; 300 Billion for the bailout of Fannie Mae and federal buy out of the funny money Fae Mae and Freddy Mac are issuing back by running printing presses at warpspeed.

Credit forced up, less money available for loans, dollar continues down, government owns foreclosed homes, and we face the specter of increased taxes. No action on energy problems.

DOW down 1,000 by December.

[Ann]

Elliott,

I am standing up and clapping. You have such a wonderful gift, looking forward to tomorrow's must read.