President Obama

An FT article tells us to ignore those misleading Gallup horse-race polls and focus on the big picture - Obama wins this easily:

Alan Abramowitz, a politics scholar at Emory University, has shown that summer head-to-head polls convey almost no information about the forthcoming election. (Subsequent head-to-head polls are not much better.) Instead, he has a simple “electoral barometer” that weighs together the approval rating of the incumbent president, the economy’s economic growth rate and whether the president’s party has controlled the White House for two terms (the “time for a change” factor). This laughably simple metric has correctly forecast the winner of the popular vote in 14 out of 15 postwar presidential elections.

The only exception is 1968, when the barometer (calibrated to range between +100 and –100) gave Hubert Humphrey a wafer-thin advantage of +2; he lost, with a popular vote deficit of less than 1 percentage point.

More from Prof. Abramowitz from this May 29 article, including a table showing his barometer and results for the different elections.  Let me test my (laughable) HTML skills:

Table 1. Electoral Barometer Readings and Election Results since World War II

Barometer Reading		Year		Election Result		Popular Vote Margin
82.5		1964		Won		22.6%
73.0		1972		Won		23.2%
71.0		1956		Won		15.4%
51.5		1984		Won		18.2%
43.5		1996		Won		8.5%
22.0		2000		Won*		0.5%
13.0		2004		Won		2.5%
9.0		1988		Won		7.7%
4.5		1948		Won		4.5%
2.0		1968		Lost		-0.7%
-5.0		1960		Lost		-0.2%
-5.0		1976		Lost		-2.1%
-22.5		1992		Lost		-5.6%
-49.5		1952		Lost		-10.9%
-66.0		1980		Lost		-9.7%

Hey, don't knock "Copy/Paste"!

Based on current values McCain is at -60, so this election should not be competitive.

Folks may remember Ray Fair who has been doing this for a while - the Fair model did predict the Bush 2004 victory, but overestimated the margin.   His model does not use the incumbent's approval rating but uses economic variables and incumbency.

So since you asked, the current Fair prediction is that McCain will garner 47.8% of the two-party vote.  Not an epic blowout, but still a loss.  And since Fair mis-overestimated the Republican margin last time around (and the Clinton margin in 1992) I will bet the under on his projected McCain result.

Dan Drezner says this means the end of punditry as we know it; McQ of Q&O tells us that

What [FT writer] Crook is arguing is that it really doesn't matter who is running for which party - if the three conditions are in a certain alignment, a blue dog could run and win. Or a red one.

I disagree - these models are based on a history in which each party made a serious effort to put forward its best candidate and run a solid campaign, although folks who remember The Duke and John Kerry may not believe this.  If the Dems had put forward a sufficiently awful and gaffe prone candidate, they might have found a way to lose this, so pundits do have something to chew on as events unfold.  That said, the Dems don't seem to have made that mistake, so they remain heavily favored.

However!  If the NY Yankees (or even the Red Sox) took the field against a AAA ball club they would be heavily favored.  But they would still have to take the field and play the game, and they couldn't just send out nine guys in pin stripes.

Comments

[clarice]

Did anyone ever study the record of stock market chartists? Are they any good? Frankly, Fibonacci might explain a lot of things in nature but I doubt we have a math formula for complicated human events.

[clarice]

To Abramowitz even Obama's failure to get the white vote is a plus:
[quote]So does Barack Obama have a problem with white voters? The answer is a resounding "yes." And so has every other Democratic presidential candidate in the past forty years. The last Democratic candidate for president to win a majority of the white vote was Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Al Gore lost the white vote by 12 points in 2000. John Kerry lost the white vote by 17 points in 2004.

Based on five national polls that have been conducted this month--Gallup, Newsweek, Quinnipiac, CBS/New York Times, and ABC/Washington Post--Barack Obama is currently trailing John McCain by an average of nine points among white voters. So Obama is doing much better than John Kerry and a little better than Al Gore. In fact, the only Democratic presidential candidates in the past four decades who have done better among white voters were Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996. Not coincidentally, they were also the only successful Democratic presidential candidates in the past four decades. Based on his current showing in the polls, Barack Obama may well be the next one. With whites expected to comprise less than 80 percent of the 2008 electorate, and with a 20-1 margin among black voters and a 2-1 margin among Hispanic voters, Obama's current nine point deficit among white voters would translate into a decisive victory in November. [/quote]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_alan_i_abramowitz/does_obama_have_a_problem_with_white_voters>It's all in the stars

[Cecil Turner]

Looks to me like that electoral barometer reading is essentially flat (very little change in popular vote) between +22 to -5. And a similarly flat curve from readings of 9 to 43.5. If that's the best curve fit he can come up with for a predictor after-the-fact, color me unimprssed. And if this thing is within a couple of percentage points right now . . . well, that's not exactly bad news for the GOP guy.

[Buford Gooch]

All prediction models work until they don't. Then, the person who put forth the model tells you that it really worked anyway, he just forgot a factor or two.

[clarice]

Please note, his entire argument is based on the polls which beside the Bradley effect are all suspect at this point.

So, if the margin in McCain's favor is really 15% he's wrong--and why is he potchking around with a more standard measure--i.e.,margin re each voting bloc--if his supra theory is so air tight?

[Peter]

The sad thing is that the only reason either Obama or McCain has a chance of winning is that they each face such a dreadful opponent.

[Rick Ballard]

Hmmm.... Lessee, if the predicted error range for the Fair Model is 2.5% and the value is 47.8%, that means the entire range is 45.3% to 50.3%. I can live with that, given Obaclown as the Dem candidate.

[Buford Gooch]

I am not a McCain fan. That said, I find it amusing how many commenters on conservative blogs say he's a bad candidate. He may well be the only Republican candidate with a chance to win the Presidency. Would I rather have someone more conservative? I'm a Fred Head, so the answer is obvious. Could Fred have won the election? Maybe, but McCain has a much better chance. The Dems have put forth the most liberal candidate since McGovern (or maybe since antiquity). Identifiable far left liberals have never won the Presidency. With McCain running, we may be able to keep it that way.

[Jim Rhoads aka vnjagvet]

Clarice hit the point with her first comment. Chartists of all stripes are suspect to those who know and understand fundamentals.

To me, trying to predict outcomes in games of skill like politics or football based on past performance of unrelated indivduals or nations or economies is as logical as relying on the Sunday paper's astrological forecast.

You might as well flip a coin.

[clarice]

Or as sensible as claiming there was a 70% chance of Rove being indicted.(Wink)

[JB]

The question I would ask is, what does this chart look like going back 100 years, let's say? Why stop in 1964?

[bio mom]

This simply fits in with the current meme...The Messiah is coming and there's nothing we can do about it!! Why even hold an election?? I am now so resentful I can barely stand to look at the man's face in a ad anymore!! What is wrong with this country that they could elect this flyweight phoney in a world as dangerous as this?

[clarice]

Well, bio--it's not inevitable even by this chart--you just need to substantially raise the white voter turnout..Get going!

[JB]

What was the index like in 1940?

[bio mom]

This is just in keeping with the meme...The Messiah is coming and there is nothing you can do about it. I can barely stand to look at Obama's face in an ad anymore. How could we elect such a flyweight and phoney?

[JM Hanes]

Well, I'm waiting for a spreadsheet wizard to derive an ironclad, bias-free, formula from some combination of totally random data sets, like say:

Degree days in Patagonia
Average Friday night flight delays at La Guardia
Aspirin sales in Central Asia
Dog bites reported to county health departments
Monthly variation in viewer hours for reality T.V.
Mosquito count in Alaska

[PeterUK]

For a small fee,I will send Lili von Schtupp to meet Obama in Berlin.

[boris]

Given my keen understanding of global climate computer models I am quite certain that I could develop a computer model that accurately "predicts" the outcome (by party) of the last 20 out of 20 presidential elections based simply on the frequency of certain words used in movie titles released in the 12 months prior to the election. Of course standard consulting rates apply.

[clarice]

I'm not sure he's know what to do with Lili..

[bgates]

Buford, why would McCain "be the only Republican candidate with a chance to win the Presidency" if "Identifiable far left liberals have never won the Presidency"? I realize the danger of saying a candidate should be closer to my ideal because the great and good American people agree with me on the issues, but there are some conservative positions that are tremendously popular (anti-amnesty and pro-ANWR - tighten the border, loosen the oil fields). Perversely, those are exactly the issues McCain has decided to take the unpopular Democratic position.

[centralcal]

Evans-Novak is "hearing" that McCain will announce his VP pick this week while Obama is in Europe.

[boris]

I see JMH predicted my post. Well done.

[tina]

Obama campaign is sending out flyers that no posters or banners are allowed at his great sermon in Germany. Yup, the Obama campaign is telling germans what they can and cannot do. This message is NOT from the German police, but from the Obama campaign. WOW

The Bild headline reads “Barack Obama bans protest signs in Berlin.”

LUN (warning its in german)

[bgates]

If the Dems had put forward a sufficiently awful and gaffe prone candidate, they might have found a way to lose this....That said, the Dems don't seem to have made that mistake
He's not gaffe prone now, but he'll get pretty tired by the 10th year of his Presidency.
Heck, I'm younger than he is, and I'm pretty tired of his Presidency already.
Even the thought of running through the prior statements of the Pakistan-invading, Jerusalem-uniting, Arabic-and-Farsi-equating, staffer-blaming, arugula-and-waffle-eating President-in-waiting of these great United 57 States gives me a headache.

[clarice]

Totally random data sets? Puh-leeze--if it was on something rational everybody could do it.

[clarice]

Thanks, Tina--to think that the world would have to endure 10 years of this!!

[clarice]

I think until Obama's campaign, Kerry had the largest campaign staff in history. If I were looking for an interesting data set, I'd look to how many damn advisers were on the candidate's payroll. I figure anyone who is dumb enough to have 300 of these ignorant snakes on his payroll, jockeying for a place in the sun, is too dumb to win.

[PeterUK]

This is where I came in,

"Ein Volk,ein Reich,ein Fumbler"

[hit and run]

OT -- do you ever sit there and just feel like there's a bunch of carp nibbling away at your toes?

Well, then you might be getting a pedicure:

ALEXANDRIA, Va. - Ready for the latest in spa pampering? Prepare to dunk your tootsies in a tank of water and let tiny carp nibble away.

Fish pedicures are creating something of a splash in the D.C. area, where a northern Virginia spa has been offering them for the past four months. John Ho, who runs the Yvonne Hair and Nails salon with his wife, Yvonne Le, said 5,000 people have taken the plunge so far.

Clarice is soooooo getting a gift certificate for this.

[JM Hanes]

boris: Wish I'd thought of "the frequency of certain words used in movie titles released in the 12 months prior to the election" though!

tina: I only began noticing that Obama was a control freak after he wrapped up the nomination. While John McCain was "coordinating" with the RNC, Obama was taking over the DNC lock, stock & barrel. I think he may be sucking both the oxygen and the money out of the entire Democratic party to support his run. Howard Dean has been reduced to doing stuntwork in the boonies while Obama is building a veritable Tower of Babel in Chicago. But even knowing that he likes to keep his campaign message "tightly wrapped," according to a staffer defending the Chicago move, issuing bans to Germans in Berlin is still a jaw dropper.

[RichatUF]

tina-

Yup, the Obama campaign is telling germans what they can and cannot do.

Too bad we couldn't get some pissed Brit and German hooligans worked up after a set or two from Rammstein to give the BHO campaign the kind of welcome they deserve.

[JM Hanes]

Clarice:

It takes a lot of bus fodder to run an Obama campaign.

[LKS]

Pay more out to Afghan war pals, end Iraq war "'cause I'm runnin' for present."

I just had my heart attack again. Gotta go.

[Soylent Red]

issuing bans to Germans in Berlin is still a jaw dropper.

It's cool. They're used to it.

[tina]

RichatUF:

Not exactly what you were suggesting, but:

Obama's Germany Itinerary Ruffles Feathers in France, UK

Barack Obama's visit to Berlin has upset officials in other European capitals who feel the presumptive Democratic Party presidential candidate is slighting their countries. The French and British are feeling neglected.

LUN

You just can't make this stuff up!

[clarice]

Funny you should say that, Hit. As soon as I saw that, I figured wouldn't that be a neat feature for Jane's new show--she sends me a gift certificate and I broadcast the experience from the salon.
Odd that she hasn't thought of this herself...........

[clarice]

Well, the big news is there's a guy hanging off the side of the Senate ofice bldg outside Obama's office--Hope he hangs on thru Thur --more tinfoil distraction for the babies.

[centralcal]

tina: "The French and British are feeling neglected."

Do they have larger Muslim populations than Germany? Does anyone know?

[Danube of Thought]

His modeling technique is what is known as "predicting the past." Remember the Yale model that had Gore in a landslide?

[royf]

 Soylent they have a long history of such rallys

[Danube of Thought]

If anyone can think of a Republican other than McCain who would stand a chance this year, I'd love to know who it is.

[royf]

Well that didn't work I'll try again here

[centralcal]

Obama to ABC's Terry Moran regarding the surge:

"Still, when asked if knowing what he knows now, he would support the surge, the senator said no."

I think McCain should be able to do something with that comment.

[Soylent Red]

the big news is there's a guy hanging off the side of the Senate ofice bldg outside Obama's office

Apparently he's an unidentified Chinese man.

Unconfirmed reports say he was shouting, "I donated all that money to Hillary you bastard!"

[Ann]

Centralcal,
I thought I heard Major Garrett report on that remark on Fox. I have been trying to find a link because I was wondering If I heard it correctly.

[boris]

"Still, when asked if knowing what he knows now, he would support the surge, the senator said no."

It sorta demolishes the strained notion that Beau Bama is just pandering to his moonbat base but would be sensible in office doesn't it.

[centralcal]

Here's the link, Ann.

LUN

[glenda waggoner]

Well, my dear respective and respected betters..the loopy biased MSM has gone over the edge. They could be standing in the rain and they would report a beautiful sunny day for Obama. I guess,for Obama, growing up in Hawaii, the olders didn't preach as mine did here in Texas..."If it sounds too good to be true, looks too good to be true, IT IS TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE". I don't think even Hitler or Mussolini got this much idolatry.
I sure hope McCain has not only an "October Surprise" but a "July Kick Them in the A_ _" moment.

[tina]

Ann:

After meeting with top U.S. military commanders and members of the Iraqi government, Sen. Barack Obama today said his opposition to the surge and support for a firm timetable for the withdrawal of troops hasn't changed.

Still, when asked if knowing what he knows now, he would support the surge, the senator said no.

From ABC in an "exclusive" on Nightline tonight!

LUN

[PaulL]

Of course Obama wouldn't have supported the surge! The surge didn't do anything, it was just coincidental. It was the political situation in Iraq that changed things.

To admit otherwise would be to credit President Bush with being right and admit that the Messiah was wrong. The Messiah is never wrong.

[bgates]

I'd say Rudy matches up as well as McCain. He was willing to tack right on immigration during the primary, and he's an experienced executive. He shares McCain's attitude towards reining in spending, with arguably more to show for it. He lacks McCain's service record, but we're told that's not going to be an issue this go-round anyway. He'd have a harder time going after Obama on corruption than McCain would, but McCain won't, so that's moot. They both have problems with the social cons, but Rudy doesn't seem to delight in that fact. Rudy's more of a Washington outsider than McCain or Obama, and he had success in changing New York (there are probably some headlines at least in the Post talking about restoring Hope, too).

Harder to tie to the incumbent, too. "GiuliquivalentToBush"?

[Ann]

Thanks Centracal and Tina.

I just watched the video and I think I am going to be sick. That stammering, arrogant, dodgy, bloody arse should be laughed at and.........(pick you favorite).

[Rick Ballard]

For those who wish to play around with the Fair Model - here is the explanation. And here's the model.

To add to the fun, here is a Q2 forecast of 3% GDP growth.

If the Q3 comes in stronger than Q2 then the Fair Model will move to toss up.

[centralcal]

I didn't bother to watch the video, Ann. Obama makes me sick enough without adding to it. Besides, I am trying to steel myself for all-Obama-all-the-time as we get even closer to the conventions and election.

Obama isn't wearing well, just a gut hunch. The longer he has been front and center, the duller his glow has become. I suspect some Dim Dems even feel that way.

[clarice]

Good work, Rick.."Toss up" huh? Well, I coulda said that at this point without all those numbers.
(Did I ever tell you how I used to drive a math grad student nuts when we played bridge in the Rathskeller--he was counting and working out the odds and I was watching faces.)

[bgates]

I'm glad Obama explained all that to me. He's not going to get locked in to leaving by a certain date and ignoring what happens in the meantime (as he said he would last summer), and he's not going to blindly defer to the commanders on the ground (as his party insisted Bush should do the year before). Instead, he will use his judgment to decide what to do in the future. The same judgment that leads him to stand by his decision to oppose the surge.

[hit and run]

Let's look at that Obama quote:

Q: If you had to do it over again, knowing what you know now, would you support the surge?

A: No, because, keep in mind that…

Q: You wouldn’t?

A: Keep in mind… These kinds of hypotheticals are very difficult. Hindsight is 20/20. But I think that, what I’m absolutely convinced of, is that at that time we had to change the political debate because the view of the Bush administration at that time was one that I just disagreed with.

BDS.

[clarice]

Pay attention--a very disturbing picture of how Axelrod works.
http://www.townhall.com/Columnists/PeterJWirs/2008/07/20/is_obama%e2%80%99s_secret_fall_strategy_to_wage_a_polarizing_smear_campaign?page=full>Playing dirty

If you were on McCain's staff how would you prepare to deal with this?

[clarice]

BTW,DOT, I like that phrase "predicting the past".

[Ranger]

But I think that, what I’m absolutely convinced of, is that at that time we had to change the political debate because the view of the Bush administration at that time was one that I just disagreed with.

Or, to rephrase that:

I've never cared about winning or losing the war, I've only cared about beating George Bush.

Or:

If winning in Iraq means giving Bush what he wants, then I oppose winning the war.

[Rick Ballard]

H & R,

Nah. Leftist seditionist coward.

In '92 the MSM was able to use AtomicFebreze to cover the ClintonStink through the election. As a result, a dishonorable almost a man beat an honorable man. They (the MSM) couldn't do it in '00 and they really couldn't do it in '04.

Can they do it in '08? Does McCain or Obama more closely "share my values" for the Great Muddle? It's kinda hard to pin "dishonorable" on McCain, much as I dislike the man.

Obama? Gee, that's tough. Should we count his association with a domestic terrorist more heavily than 20 years at Hate Whitey United or would his close association with a convicted slumlord come in first? I go with the the slumlord myself. To treat your constituents like the trash you believe them to be by allowing a slumlord to rent them substandard housing while you're pocketing his bribes is a bit lower than even Bubba managed.

[BobS]

The Dem party and Obama are trying to grab the narrative and re-write history. A Dem US congressman was on H & C tonight attempting that. His lies were even more than Sean could overcome. Don't let them do this!

[Ralph]

It may be just wishful thinking on my part, but the media's fauning adulation of Obama has a bit of a "tone of desperation" to it. Remember that at this time last year, "they" all knew that Hillary was just going to waltz into the White House.

As Rick points out, they were wrong in '00, and wrong in '04. They managed to convince people that the party of the Daley Machine was going to clean up "Republican corruption" in '06 (they didn't bother to mention that it would do so by expanding Democrat corruption), but based on Congress' current approval ratings, much of hte bloom is off that rose.

If they don't "deliver" the election this year, they may see their power disappearing.

[hit and run]

Rule one of dress codes, "first do no harm":

In a memo to reporters, described as “a few guidelines we sent staff before departure to the Middle East,” Obama advance staffer Peter Newell laid out rules on attire for Jordan and Israel.

First among them: “Do not wear green.”

An Obama aide explained to reporters that green is the color associated with the militant Palestinian group Hamas. But while the color does appear on Hamas banners, there is no particular symbolism to wearing green clothes, experts said.

Moreover, green is more generally seen as a symbol of Islam. [...]

Mohamad Bazzi, a professor of journalism at New York University and former Middle East bureau chief for Newsday, called the instruction “very strange.”

“I guess green is the ‘Hamas color’ — but it's also the color of Islam!” Bazzi said in an email from Beirut. “That's one way for the Obama campaign to alienate 1.4 billion Muslims worldwide.”

Oh, but you can't blame Obama. It's the VRWC that made him do it, of course:

“A ban on wearing green seems bizarre,” said Richard Bulliet, a professor of Middle Eastern history at Columbia University, who said the color is associated with the family of the Prophet Mohammed.

“I would hazard the guess that the campaign's concern is more with distorted—and religiously inaccurate—reporting by Obama's detractors than with any actual signal that might be conveyed,” he said, referring to false rumors that Obama is a Muslim. “You don’t want to have some blogger come along and say ‘Obama is showing his true color.’”

[sbw]

I gave up on Political Science because it dealt with too many little-t truths -- things that may be true but certainly don't matter.

Abramowitz, correlation does not equal causation. Enough said. Next!

I certainly wasn't going to register with FT just to figure out which approval rating determined when mattered, and which economic growth rate where and when mattered -- I mean houses may be killing the economy in California and not in Texas.

I smell a model based on hockey sticks and scientific "consensus" -- not science. It sounds too much like global warmening.

[clarice]

Adm Sestak was pitching a lot of doo doo, too.

[Ann]

Hit,

It is always nice when the dims admit they only do things for political reasons.

He also credits Iraq for the surge working not our guys. He thinks a surge in Afganistan will work I guess because NATO is in charge. (Question: Does he know NATO is in charge or does he think it will work because he will be in charge for 8 to 10 years?)

[BobS]

I can't wait for Lee and his lib buddies attempt to tell us why Obama has been correct all along. Its making what little hair I have hurt in advance.

[BobS]

I can't wait for Lee and his lib buddies attempt to tell us why Obama has been correct all along. Its making what little hair I have hurt in advance.

[section9]

But I think that, what I’m absolutely convinced of, is that at that time we had to change the political debate because the view of the Bush administration at that time was one that I just disagreed with.

Take a close look at that statement. See if the utter narcissism of the man doesn't come screaming through.

[BobS]

Obama is a snake oil salesman. How can the MSM be intelectually honest with themselves on him?

[centralcal]

I think that . . .

I am absolutely convinced of . . .

He doesn't have a fricken clue!! He "thinks" he is "absolutely convinced..."

Oh, puhleeze! His eyes are probably darting around to his 300+ foreign policy advisors for a sign or a nod that he is on the right sound-track.

Good grief. The man is pathetic.

[BobS]

Section9: Narcissist? Does he actually reach that level? And self-respecting narcissist wouldnt dream od trying to get that pitch by anyone. But a pathetic MSM member...hell yes

[BobS]

There is no way in hell that this fraud can get past the electorate. Right? Was Bill actually right?

[BobS]

Its impossible to defend the indefensible. Wait 'til he gets to drilling for oil.

[glenda waggoner]

Whoa-surprise-surprise.

First, Andrea Mitchell disses the "fake" interviews the Obama campaign set up on the Pentagon sponsored trip.

Now, David Gergen, on CNN, states O has made his first mistake..ok...wait.....
being presumptuous!!!That "everyone" knows diplomats and people of stature do not discuss private conversations in tete-a-tetes with foreign dignitaries and there is only one President, one commander-in-chief at a time in this country.

What, did Axelrod forget to leave the mind-numbing drugs to the journalists/pundits left behind?

[Chris]

Clarice nailed it in the first post. No surprise but still, good call. Past performance is not indicative of future results. To say nothing of the efficacy of backtesting to reach a pre-determined outcome.

SBW; good call as well:

"Abramowitz, correlation does not equal causation. Enough said."

AGW, anyone?

You can plug in (or not) whatever information you'd like to get to any outcome. I'm not dismissing the stats out of hand. Just pointing out obvious flaws. Learned this stuff on the street.

Did you know there's never been a decade since the 30's when stocks were down for ten years running? Well, until last week (LUN).

GIGO comes to mind. Notice too the deviations from the mean. In 2000, the model was apparently correct in the strictest sense. But who won the presidency? Never mind. And the reading was (allegedly) plus 22. Everyone knew at the time the economy was headed into the toilet by November of that year. Bush-Cheney were harangued by the media for "badmouthing" the economy. Never mind that the S&P was down well over 20% and the Nasdaq nearly 40% from January of that year through October, pre-election. Clearly forecasting recession at the time, which we later found out we were in beginning in March of 2000.

How did a recession rate a plus 22 reading?

Lies, damn lies and statistics. A skilled money manager knows all the tricks to show that he outperforms the competition. Doesn't matter whether he/she made or lost clients money. Just where they stand relative to the peer group. Very similar backtesting/modeling going on here. Cancel the election!

[Ann]

Cent,

Marcambinder.the atlantic.com has more, with I think a link to the entire interview ( so you don't have to watch Nightfright):

"But," asked Moran,"if the country had pursued your policy of withdrawing in the face of this horrific violence, what do you think Iraq would look like now?"
Obama said it would be hard to speculate. "The Sunnis might have made the same decisions at that time. The Shii’as might have made some similar decisions based on political calculation. There was ethnic cleansing in Baghdad that actually took the violence level down," he said.
Obama also told Moran that there were circumstances under which he could revise his instruction to U.S. generals to begin withdrawing combat brigades at the pace of one-to-two per month.
"I've always reserved the right, uh, to say---let's say that ethnic, uh, ethnic fighting broke out once again---I've reserved the right to say---I don't--I'm not going to stand idly by if genocide is occurring. I'm not going to stand idly by if vital United States interests are at stake. Um, so in that sense yes, I retain the flexibility anyone who in the job of commander in chief is constantly reassessing facts, risks, and so forth."

You really have to have a steady stomach to watch him or read his carp. I AM absolutely convinced of it!!!!

[RichatUF]

BobS-

There is no way in hell that this fraud can get past the electorate. Right?

Take a look at the article that Clarice linked too. Once the Axelrod dirt machine gets up and running who knows what the muddle will believe. On a brighter note, Axelrod specializes in big city races so his tactics might backfire in flyover country [and a surprising number of his clients are crooks or closely related to crooks].

Something else that's been bothering me too. Clinton won his second term by making running a Gingrich/Dole campaign. Gingrich was polarizing and unpopular by 1996, but no where near Nancy "9%" Pelosi's unpopularity. McCain's new Pelosi/Obama ad is a good start, but he needs to regionalize it and hit the "Judges Matter" theme too.

[BobS]

OMG....I had no idea that Paul McCartney sang "Let it Be" to close the Billy Joel show at Shea Stadium last weekend.

[glenda waggoner]

In other words, if Obama says it, we have a brilliant assessment of the sit-rep, but, when President Bush said the same thing, He Lied, People Died? I think the dew is off the lily, finally!

[PaulL]

****There was ethnic cleansing in Baghdad that actually took the violence level down.****

That's an interesting way to look at it. Just think of how low the violence levels would be after a nuclear bomb went off.

[BobS]

Rich (Gator?)I just believe that Dems will be unable to sustain Nancy Pelosi's argument as they once have. Dems can no longer just run drivle by AP headlines and network TV jibberish.

[Jim Rhoads aka vnjagvet]

Wouldn't it be fun to put BHO's press offerings parallel to W's, glenda? That would make for an interesting presentation to the muddle.

[narciso]

Bulliet one recalls from Kramer's tale of the totally self absorbed field of Middle East studies; was one who was more concerned
with the appearance of Moslems involved in the first WTC bombing; breeding paranoia, racial profiling;(which I think should be
considered applying ethno religious
parameters, since Arab or Moslem isn't a race)than the actual bombing.

[Rick Ballard]

Rich,

I would submit that Axelrod pulled out all the stops in PA - and that Rendell pegged the results, not just there, but also in November. McCain may have offended some conservatives to the point where they won't vote for him but Obama is bad poison for a much larger portion of what used to be the Dem base.

I don't doubt that Axelrod could get Obama elected anywhere the demographics fit but if they didn't fit statewide in PA, they ain't gonna fit nationally.

[clarice]

Shelby Steele is a genius:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121668579909472083.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries>Obama's strategy

Now how does one overcome this? Especially when the media will not accurately report his considerable failings for the post?

[Chris]

Rick,
From your lips... Hope/think you're right but it's way too close for comfort at this juncture.

[RichatUF]

BobS-

Yes. I'm not there anymore and have been too lazy to change my screen name.

Rick-

It might be time to dust off that Barone Jacksonian article and explains why Strickland and Webb have taken themselves out of the VP contest.

Looking at the contest if McCain could capitalize on MI's Democrat problems and tap into a "Not Obama" sentiment in OH and PA, BHO's campaign looks to be in serious trouble. I'm just worried McCain's campaign is going to do something really dumb and bascially give the election to Obama, but so far, letting Obama talk has been a good enough strategy.

[Porchlight]

Michelle O stumping in Denver:

"I wish we had time to be divided. I wish we had time to be upset. To be angry. To be disappointed. I wish we did," Obama said. "Because if we had time for that, then things wouldn't be so bad right now. Instead, we're in a place where another four or eight years of the world as it is will devastate the life of some child."

I can barely even make sense of this.

[Pofarmer]

Just saw Jim Webb on the Charlie Rose show saying that in 2001 Saddam Hussein was on the way out. And, especially after 9/11, he was irrelevant to foreign policy.

Huh?????

[Rick Ballard]

Rich,

I find the thought of ferocious PUMAs roaming through PA, MI, OH, WI and CO rather reassuring. There can't be a Clinton '12 unless Lightweight Vibrator has his batteries stolen in '08. Shelby Steele's thesis is interesting but there are many, many people who just don't carry a level of guilt high enough to justify pulling the lever for this obvious charlatan.

[Pofarmer]

I also realized, after trying to watch Nightline for about 2 seconds, that I can't trust a thing Obama says.

[Foo Bar]

How would you feel if, while applying for a marriage license, you found out that your fiancee had lied to you about his/her age by a margin of four years?

[BobS]

Pofarmer: Dem talking points are to change the narrative and re-write history. At some point, a MSM figure will call Obama on one of these incoherant statements. It will be one of the cultivated talking heads they took to Europe..I think Charlie Gibson. No way Obama goes on with Wallace or Hume from FOX. The late Tim Russert - Dem pol as he was - would not have been able to let the charade go on as it has.

[RichatUF]

Pofarmer-

The memory hole is alive and well. I'm sure the Ministry of Turth will disabuse anyone of the notion that Clinton's Iraq policy would properly be described as a war.

Did Charlie Rose just sit there and nod?

[Pofarmer]

Let's just say Charlie seemed rather approving of the explanation. I deemed it not worth further time and turned it off.

[Ann]

Ok, I watched the Terry Moran interview because I have realized that you can't just read Obama's words, you really have to watch his face (and ears :)) to figure out this dodger. One thing I am always taken with is he blinks as much as Pelosi, anyways this part was telling and I think Terry Moran did a pretty good job tonight (he even looked at O like WHAT????.): Here we go:

Recent polls have indicated that some Americans doubt whether Obama is up to the challenges of being commander in chief. He said he considers the responsibility of that position to be "profound."

"You've got young people who are coming here, 21, 22, 24 [years old] ... if you go to Walter Reed, you see young men and women of the same age who lost a limb or lost their sight," he said. "What we are asking of them is profound, and that means that, as commander in chief, it is absolutely my obligation to get it right, to get the decisions as accurate as possible, based on the best facts available and to clear away the politics and to clear away the ideology and the preassumptions, but to also recognize that these service members take such extraordinary pride in their work.

Recap: You had to see his face. I believe he thinks President Bush killed and wounded soldiers for politics, bad ideology and bad preassumptions and the worst part was he cannot believe anyone would believe in anything higher than themselves.

He cannot or will not comprehend or believe that these brave men "take such extraordinary pride in their work".
He thinks they are foolish!

[Soylent Red]

Ugh. The man is a moron.

[glasater]

"'m not sure he's know what to do with Lili.."

Heh--I'm with you Clarice. I don't think BHO likes girls all that much.