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July 11, 2008



Before I go back and read what happened last nite - I wanted to say "Good Morning"!


Looks like I'm traveling again.

This is one of those automated thread-post thingies - so we can't rule out other circumstances:

1: Kidnapped by a rogue faction of Euro-based FDLers and you're being forced to read all of EmptyWheel's posts on PLAMEGate

2: You're overcome by ennui and unable to reach for the mouse or keyboard

3: You've run out of coffee and just can't break your morning routine.

If not, and it turns out you're just traveling, then happy trails!


Illinois and Wisconsin are the two states without some form of concealed carry, but one Illinois county wants that to change, county by county if necessary.

Winnebago County moving closer to concealed carry, authorizes advisory referendum. Could Sheriff issue special deputy authorization for county wide concealed carry?


Good Morning all..Still don't have internet at the new house..I'm going crazy without it.
/ The whole floating thing in the pool with a ice cold beer is working out really well.


Some is worried. NYT's today:


A Hint of New Life to a McCain Birth Issue By ADAM LIPTAK In the most detailed examination yet of Senator John McCain’s eligibility to be president, a law professor at the University of Arizona has concluded that neither Mr. McCain’s birth in 1936 in the Panama Canal Zone nor the fact that his parents were American citizens is enough to satisfy the constitutional requirement that the president must be a “natural-born citizen.”

The analysis, by Prof. Gabriel J. Chin, focused on a 1937 law that has been largely overlooked in the debate over Mr. McCain’s eligibility to be president. The law conferred citizenship on children of American parents born in the Canal Zone after 1904, and it made John McCain a citizen just before his first birthday. But the law came too late, Professor Chin argued, to make Mr. McCain a natural-born citizen.

“It’s preposterous that a technicality like this can make a difference in an advanced democracy,” Professor Chin said. “But this is the constitutional text that we have.”

Several legal experts said that Professor Chin’s analysis was careful and plausible. But they added that nothing was very likely to follow from it.

“No court will get close to it, and everyone else is on board, so there’s a constitutional consensus, the merits of arguments such as this one aside,” said Peter J. Spiro, an authority on the law of citizenship at Temple University.

Mr. McCain has dismissed any suggestion that he does not meet the citizenship test.

In April, the Senate approved a nonbinding resolution declaring that Mr. McCain is eligible to be president. Its sponsors said the nation’s founders would have never intended to deny the presidency to the offspring of military personnel stationed out of the country.

A lawsuit challenging Mr. McCain’s qualifications is pending in the Federal District Court in Concord, N.H.

There are, Professor Chin argued in his analysis, only two ways to become a natural-born citizen. One, specified in the Constitution, is to be born in the United States. The other way is to be covered by a law enacted by Congress at the time of one’s birth.

Professor Chin wrote that simply being born in the Canal Zone did not satisfy the 14th Amendment, which says that “all persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States.”

A series of early-20th-century decisions known as the Insular Cases, he wrote, ruled that unincorporated territories acquired by the United States were not part of the nation for constitutional purposes. The Insular Cases did not directly address the Canal Zone. But the zone was generally considered an unincorporated territory before it was returned to Panama in 1999, and some people born in the Canal Zone when it was under American jurisdiction have been deported from the United States or convicted of being here illegally.

The second way Mr. McCain could have, and ultimately did, become a citizen was by statute, Professor Chin wrote. In Rogers v. Bellei in 1971, the Supreme Court said Congress had broad authority to decide whether and when children born to American citizens abroad are citizens.


Put comment up at old thread late last night regarding threat that a blogger got for putting up a petition to get O!'S Birth Certif

And also Atlas post which slay "a certain 2 initaled blogger"


So I won't dupe on this one.


This cold heart begs the real question ...Africa is giving nothing to anyone -- apart from AIDS


The Democratic mess in Pennsylvania ...

[PA] Attorney General Corbett announces charges in legislative bonus investigation - 12 suspects charged in 1st phase of the investigation

This involves the payment of bonuses to state employees who engaged in political activities.

I think this removes Gov. Ed Rendell from any VP list, or at least it should.


Two distinguished lawyers, Lawrence Tribe and Ted Olsen examined the issue of McCain's natural born citizenship and found it was kosher. This guy Chin from the Univ of Ariz has a different view--so what? The NYT is stretching. IIRC the Senate debated this some time ago.
Wake me when the Times discusses the fake BCs on Kos and SRS.


Perhaps Chin is trying to guard against an Obama birth certificate problem - altho I admit I am no longer following that story.


Two distinguished lawyers, Lawrence Tribe and Ted Olsen
Well if Ted says it's ok then it probably is..
I wonder how Ted is doing these days..He sure had a wonderful wife. I hope his heart has healed from his horrible loss.


Let's hear Doug Kmiec on birth certificates.



I'm not all that into the forgery aspect of the BC, but damn, the cat fight looks interesting.


Charlie (Colorado)

So I pointed out the original SSRN post on McCain in the previous thread and disappeared (it's been an eventful week, follow the link under my name back to Explorations for a bit of it.)

Here's my prediction: if McCain wins, especially by a narrow margin, expect he Democrats to pull this paper out and find *some* fool judge (there are so many of them) to assert someone has standing and to find that McCain is not qualified.


I don't think that will happen Charlie. The Gore bit pretty much was the capper for this kind of shit. A judge in his right mind would say that the challenge had to be made before the election.


This seems pretty gloomy .. The EPA’s Blueprint for Disaster


I like AJ a lot; I'd prawley comment over there but for the registration, but he has let his belief in the authenticity of that document make him miss the useful political tactic. Obama has been deer in the headlights over this, just as Kerry was dead in the water after the Swift attack. I smell blood in the water. Why else attack McCain's citizenship? He's desperate, wounded, and thrashing. Mawz Lawz Hawz Jawz. I'm not sure I can stand it; isn't it animal cruelty? Oh, no, he's human; it's allowed, nay, encouraged.


Neo, one of the reasons that the administration refused an email from EPA, and one of the reasons that Cheney sought downplaying of the health hazards of global warming, is that someone over there has figured out that the globe is cooling and that CO2's role in climate regulation has been frighteningly exaggerated.

I think Bush and McCain both are playing a very delicate game, holding all cards close, while the science of climate and the art of beliefs carry out there dramatic mano a mano. Once the science is unsettled again, and the dust settles over a cooling earth, then is time for a few inconvenient truths, like that fossil fuels are the only short term means to feed and warm the earnest billions.


1) what email are you talking about
2) where is "over there"

Bill in AZ

kim - dunno if you have found anything yet on that Harry van Loon/William Gray conference on June 26, but I keep looking for info and stuff is starting to appear.


Not a whole lot of detail in this article, but it's a start.

Some tidbits...

The theme of the forum strongly suggested that a period of global cooling is about emerge, though possible concerns for a political backlash kept it from being spelled out.

However, the message was loud and clear, a cyclical global warming trend may be coming to an end for a variety of reasons, and a new cooling cycle could impact the energy markets in a big way.

Finally, climate scientist Melita spoke of a new phase in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

"I'm looking at a new, cold-negative phase, though it won't effect this summer, fall or winter '08," he said.

I'm not sure I agree with this that we won't see effects this year - we are already seeing effects. I live in a very sensitive climate area, and marginal climates are usually very good indicators of significant changes. Over the last 10 years or so, we have lost significant numbers of Ponderosa pines, here and all over the west due to extended (solar caused!) drought. Things changed significantly last year, and changes are continuing into this year. The "monsoons" started early and have been very wet (as Erl Happ more or less predicted they would). We have also had anomalous rains last fall, winter and spring - also along the lines of Erls analysis. The PDO has flipped back to what it was 30 years ago, and what I'm seeing here now is what I saw here 30+ years ago. It constantly defies the weather forecasters because their models are based on the last 10-20 years of weather patterns here. They need to recalibrate them back to the last cold negative phase PDO.

Conventional wisdom for forecasters here is "El Nino = dry", "La Nina = more dry". Well, not during cold negative PDO - they should be wet, and more wet (er, relatively speaking, wet here is not like wet anywhere else, but we'll take anything).


The NYT article coming up now seems to be pre-empting move on O!'s.

Red Ink, the same Texas blog has this up. Creepy if true. The gay guy linked to Larry Sinclair who was choir member at UTCC was murdered. There is plenty more. Very creepy...


{...]Mr Young turns out to be one Donald Young, an openly gay Choir director at Trinity United Church, and fourth grade math teacher. On December 23, Mr. Young was murdered in his home, and his killer has not been found. Mr. Young was not the only gay black victim of murder in Chicago, There were two other gay men that were murdered within days of each other, Kevin Clewer (incorrect, see correction below), and Larry Bland. All three died within a 40 day period.

Went to see he "catfight" and the 7 comments on the Atlas B.C. post are all about McCain - not about the COLB?????

Rick Ballard

$30 Million?

Is this Obamamath where 30 = 100?

Please note the quiet Friday non-release release of the "news" about Obama's campaign taking on the appearance of a big balloon with just a few really tiny holes.

Honest, they're really, really tiny. Be patched in no time, really.



Reckon he is wondering now why he didn't take the public financing? ::grin::


More quiet Friday news -

Per Rasmussen, Obama's lead is down to a "statistically insignificant" 1% (2% with leaners). If you've been following Rasmussen this is a noticeable drop - the matchup w/o leaners has had Obama head more like 4-6 points in recent weeks.

The race for the White House is getting a bit closer. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama’s lead over John McCain down to a statistically insignificant single percentage point, 43% to 42%. Prior to today, Obama had enjoyed at least a four-point advantage every day since Hillary Clinton dropped out of the race over a month ago. This is the first time his support has fallen below the 45% level since May 31.

larwyn, The number of men (gay or not) murdered in Chicago esp on the south side in any year has to be significant. Let's not go to the fever swamps.


Is this Obamamath where 30 = 100

What kind of idiot in the kind of economy Obama says we have would send some of his own hard-earned (and nearly gone) money to a guy who has received $50,000,000 for months in a row?
Obama's going to have to start convincing people the economy isn't so bad after all if he wants people to dare part with the last few dollars they may ever have.

Danube of Thought

Great Scott--I go to Italy for a few weeks and the Dow drops 1,300 points. At least McCain seems to be closing in, according to both Gallup and Ras.

Mornin', Jane.

Thomas Collins

Ahnuld must be paying close attention to the rules governing who is a "natural born" US citizen. I say, no matter who becomes the next POTUS or which party controls the next Congress, Congress should pass and the POTUS should sign a law deeming all Terminators natural born US citizens!


DoT, Welcome Back, paesano!Air kiss.Air kiss.



That's what I've thought all along. While they (democrats) are screeching about how bad the economy is, they are raking in gazillions of dollars.


DOT! WE missed you! Did you have fun? How was David? Was the food good?


We just had 4 F-18 High Speed Flybys here in Downtown Detroit (over the river). McCain is here and I guess he needs protecting from all of the "angry" Blue Staters... Not normal at all for High Speed Flybys here...


Maybe we should start drafting his invesco stadium speech for him. SOmeone grab Soylent.
I'm getting a new, more powerful computer installed this afternoon. So if you post something to me and I don't respond it's because (a) we are still transferring stuff from one computer to the other, (b) we blew it, and I'll be lost in space forever.


Welcome back DOT.

Rick: Only $30 million, huh? Interesting. Any idea how the DNC is doing? They were way behind RNC last I saw.


We're next.
When will the cattle cars and machine guns show up?
- - - -
*Sent to the Camps*
... children in Rotherham are being packed off

Via *Off To Camp* which adds, among other things:
"The Rotherham Obesity Strategy will financially cost the town a total of $5,253,000, according to its authors. In addition to more than $977,000 for childhood obesity programs, $202,000 is earmarked to fund a community weight loss program, $514,000 for specialist weight management; and $3,560,000 for bariatric surgeries.

"In a total disconnect, the Rotherham Hospital has resorted to appealing to local people, trying to raise $692,000 it needs to buy a Gamma Scanner, a nuclear diagnostic tool used to detect cancers, brain and kidney disorders and a range of other medical conditions. Government has its health care priorities."
- - - -

Millions for high-risk surgeries of uncertain utility for a problem of questionable veracity, but not a penny for proven science. Brilliant.


From John Fund's Political Journal:

Are global investors anticipating a Barack Obama victory in November and the economic storm that his high-tax and anti-trade policies would bring? That's a convenient reading of the stock market's recent behavior for Republicans, who have reason for wanting to deflect blame from George W. Bush and his Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. But we do know investors are forward-looking and the slide in the dollar and the fall in the market (despite decent corporate profits) have accelerated at the same pace as Mr. Obama's meteoric political rise over the past nine months.

Now some smart analysts have decided to quantify the relationship. They find a definite inverse correlation between Mr. Obama's probability of winning the election (as measured by the Intrade political futures market) and the ups and downs of the stock market. Intrade provides a trading market where investors can bet on who will win the election -- such betting markets have a record of performing better than polls in forecasting election outcomes. University of Michigan Economist Mark Perry was perhaps the first to uncover the relationship between this Obama index and asset values. Radio host and fund manager Jerry Bowyer notes on CNBC.com that investors would have good reason for wanting to flee U.S. markets ahead of an Obama victory. Increases in capital gains and dividend taxes alone will "mean very large additional levies on investors." Mr. Bowyer adds: "Of course, this affects stock prices. It is ludicrous to suggest that adding taxes directly on an asset class would have no effect on its value."

If Messrs. Perry and Bowyer are correct in their analysis, the lousy market in the last few weeks makes sense. Yes, it's partly a result of Ben Bernanke's decision not to raise interest rates. But Senator Obama is now trading as a 34% favorite -- that is, bettors believe Mr. Obama is 34% more likely to win in November than Republican John McCain. That implies big tax hikes aimed at the returns on investment in the stock market.

The lesson here for investors is to keep an eye on the betting markets as a leading indicator as to the direction of stocks. "If the political winds keep blowing left," says Dan Clifton of Strategas, an investment advisory firm, "the market is going to tank. In that case, I advise, get out of the market while you still can."

-- Stephen Moore


Know about the murders in Chicago - but this is the Don Young who contacted Larry Sinclair on behalf of O! Don't dismiss it without reading it.
"There are no coincidences":::laughing:::::


Saw the Atlas blog, and I am obliged to link it. How useful it was of NYTimes trot out that hit piece on McCain's citizenship at this time. With the left, I don't believe in coincidences.


Welcome back, DoT! Hope you had a great trip.

centralcal, I'm interested in the DNC's June numbers, too.

I was also interested to read on the Weekly Standard blog that Obama's overhead is $10 million more per month than McCain's, so McCain's $22 mil will go much further than Obama's $30 mil.


Porch: I saw a blurb (linking an AP story on McCain/RNC numbers) saying that the DNC only had $4 million on had.

Don't know the accuracy or when that was reported.

Glasater: Very interesting Fund piece.


this is a bad story...it is a distraction but she gave the interview perhaps because of the misinformation that seems to be coming from the McCain side...when no one was even asking.


OOps! That was a cut and paste from someone at Political punch.

What I meant to say was:
PD- those flyovers are for the Gold Cup boat races on the river.


I think the $4 million was the DNC's cash on hand for May - here's the chart (via Politico) that the Obama campaign supposedly circulated to boost fundraising.


Maybe Obama's contributions were all in the form of Fannie Mae stock bundled by James Johnson. If they had $100 million of that lined up June 5 it would be worth around $30 million now.


Geez.....why on earth is FoxNews putting on an owner of a Tampa strip club and one of their dancers to talk about the economy. I'm embarrased for everyone.


Snort! Obama is supposedly gonna sponsor a car at Nascar! Ya think he will paint it all up with his nifty Presidential Seal, or one of his Messiah renderings?


Say it ain't so, cantralcal. I'm a huge NASCAR fan. Republicans only please.


BobS- our local (SoCal) NPR station did one better last month. They interviewed a heroin dealer about how the economy is affecting his business (adversely) and how the full homeless shelters are affecting his housing (he has to park his Winnebago on the street rather than at a homeless shelter-provided parking lot).


Am I alone in thinking that Obama's scheduled acceptance speech at Invesco (sp?) Field has the potenial for disaster and an astounding overreach?


It's good to have MayBee and DoT back.


Obama is supposedly gonna sponsor a car at Nascar!

I wonder if he'll tell his campaign staff to make sure they get their vaccinations before the race.


NPR, huh? We payed for that, BTW. Somehow the stripper seems like school marm in comparison


From KLO at The Corner (citing Sports Illustrated):

SI.com’s Tom Bowles has learned that for the first time in history, a major presidential candidate may sponsor a race car in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series. According to sources, Barack Obama's campaign is in talks to become the primary sponsor of BAM Racing's No. 49 car for the Pocono race on August 3.

glenda waggoner

Nascar IS in the Chicago area this week..BHO will look like a duck out of water. Remember when NBC sent cameras and fake Muslims to a race to supposedly get a little southern racism on camera? RNC-get ready-a good commercial could come from it!


If the citation of a 1934 statute at is accurate, I don't see what all the fuss is about:

1934 Act of May 24, 1934, Section 1, 48 Stat. 797.

"Any child hereafter born out of the limits and jurisdiction of the United States, whose father or mother or both at the time of birth of such child is a citizen of the United States, is declared to be a citizen of the United States: but the rights of citizenship shall not descend to any such child unless the citizen father or citizen mother, as the case may be, has resided in the United States previous to the birth of such child. In cases where one of the parents is an alien, the right of citizenship shall not descend unless the child comes to the United States and resides therein for at least five years continuously immediately previous to his eighteenth birthday, and unless, within six months after the child's twenty-first birthday, he or she shall take an oath of allegiance to the United States of America as prescribed by the Bureau of Naturalization."

How did Professor Chin address this?


Oops, sorry.


BAM Racing's #49 is driven by veteran Ken Schrader and has missed several races for a number of reasons. It may to not be such a good idea as its a Toyota car. Many NASCAR fans don't like Toyota's presence in the chase. The #49 has had sponsorship problems, so I suppose it will take ANYONE. But not to worry, like most lower tier teams, the #49 is likely not to finish the race


A commenter at a DMN blog posted the following yesterday:

I was born outside of the United States, and even more important to me than my birth certificate is my Form 240a, Foreign Service document established December, 1934, titled "Report of Birth/Child BOrn Abroad on or after 12 O'Clock Noon, E.S.T., May34 [sic; 24?], 1934 of American Parents", which bears the following on the back:

Section 1993 of the Revised Statutes of the United States as amended by the Act of May 24, 1934, reads in part as follows: "Any child hereafter born out of the limits and jurisdiction of the United States whose father or mother or both at the time of the birth of such child is a citizen of the United States......"


Thrilled that the Anchoress blogged on this...


Nancy Pelosi Orwell: The lady likes control
What kind of "liberals" are these? What sort of "transparency" is this?

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, Lady Liberty herself, who has in the past made noises about regulating free speech on the internet, has decided that her colleagues in congress have too much free speech, and they should be reined in.

And California's Sen. Diane Feinstein seems to be cooking up a similar idea in the Senate.

How do people supposedly committed to the first amendment and to free speech discuss managing and controlling the communication of the people they're supposed to be working with, "together" to "serve the nation".

How does a conversation like this go?

Pelosi: We need to update our communications rules, to include new factors like blogs, internets, etc.

Feinstein: Probably a good idea to do a little housekeeping.

Pelosi: Yes, here's our proposal.

Feinstein: Oh, yeah. Looks pretty innocuous. Just making sure that Congressman use approved channels for the dissemination of their thoughts and issues. What could be more tidy and careful?

Pelosi: (Smiling) Sure. You know, we can't have our enemies -errr, our "colleages" just putting stuff up on YouTube; it's not dignified.

Feinstein: Approved channels will have their own rules, of course. We can't just allow anyone to throw any old thing up on the approved channels. They'll need monitoring and oversight, to make sure that only absolute facts get out the public.

Pelosi: (Smiling wider) Yes, I'd thought of that. And facts, as you know, are such subjective things. Your truth and my truth might not be the exact same thing, and a Repulican's truth would certainly be very different from either of ours; everything is relative. So it will be very important for some sort of oversight committee to either approve, disapprove or censor- um, I mean edit - what goes out across that channel.

Feinstein: Well, you know, we have to be careful about this; some of our enemies, I mean our "colleages," may say we're trying to inhibit free speech and the free exchange of ideas. I think Culberson is already making noise along those lines.

Pelosi: Well, naturally, but he's a Republican - full of paranoia and sour grapes, as are they all - the press will see it for the blather it is, and they'll ignore it. We can have this thing passed while everyone is worrying about the high price of gasoline and home heating oil - no one will care.

Feinstein: And besides, those higher prices are for the nation's own good.

Pelosi: Exactly, drilling won't help us, and they'll eventually come to realize it. But in the meantime, this internet thing is an urgent bit of house management. Our own "environmental concern," so to speak.

Feinstein: (Chuckles) Let me add my thoughts for a similar move in the Senate! (via Ed Morrissey at Hot Air):...........



Iranian ABM system revealed


Neo: Hee


sorry....apologies to Glen Reynolds....HEH


I'm ignoring DoT out of jealousy. I'm thinking of telling him I am his long lost daughter so he'll take me to Italy with the fam next year.


Maybee - Thanks for the Info. They usually send out an email to building residents when this is going to happen. Makes people a lot less nervous that way (flybys were within 200 yards of the RenCen).

Darn, I was kinda hoping that the F-18 had some "smart bombs" that could take out only liberals. There would not be many left here if that happened...


Photoshop fun with Iranian missiles

Now I read that there weren't really and new missile tests, these were old photos that were redistributed.

Rick Ballard

"Darn, I was kinda hoping that the F-18 had some "smart bombs" that could take out only liberals."

Hmmmm.... wouldn't those be "dumb as a sack of hammers" bombs? Not really necessary anyway, nonsurvival of the unfittest takes care of them over time.


"smart bombs" that could take out only liberals."

Those are "dumb" bombs.

Charlie (Colorado)

A judge in his right mind would say that the challenge had to be made before the election.

Clarice, I agree it would be nuts. On the other hand, they only have to find one judge who isn't in his right mind, and they've got the whole state of California to choose from.


Amen, Charlie. Amen.


Re: Obama and the Pennsylvania 500, I wonder what the polling is looking like. The last poll taken in PA (Rasmussen, 1000 LV) only had O up 4 points, 46 to 42. That is not a particularly comfortable lead for a must-win blue state. His internals may be looking even worse since 6/22 when the poll was taken, hence the NASCAR "bitter clingy white folks outreach" proposal.


The Iranians are full of talk, but may not have anything to fight with.


Sorry, Neo. I'm seconding you


I'm bored.

Hagel going to Iraq with Barry. Yawn.

David Shuster needs a mouth transplant - it looks like it is battery operated and the batteries are dying. Plus it seems strangely to be at war with the rest of his face.

Obama admits that he cannot speak a foreign language (think I saw that at Campaignspot). What an embarrassment he is to this country! Hope he's learning some catchy German phrases.

Obama campaign still hasn't released their June fundraising numbers?????? Hhmmmm.

Rick Ballard

Obama Bear Market Report

Traders breathed a sigh of relief at market's close today as losses accross the three most closely watched averages came in at -1%. Today marks the 35th day since Obama's successful putsch against Clinton and the first formal recognition that investors possessing the brains that God gave a gnat are behaving precisely as one might expect. They're selling heavily and moving as much cash as possible into money market funds in anticipation of the economic disaster which is sure to occur should the United States suffer the misfortune of an Obama victory.

The strength of investor's resistance can be measured by the fact that yesterday's jobs report was very strong and today's BEA Report is leading to forecasts of 3% growth in GNP in Q2 of 2008.

One market professional, contacted for comment on this piece, explained the market's shrugging off of all good news by noting that the RMS Titanic was scheduled to break the Transatlantic speed record on the afternoon of April 14, 1912.

clarice feldman

CC I thought I just read a story that said Barry garnered $30 million in the last month's fundraising.


You probably read the same story I did (ABC?) where they speculate on the $30 million (more or less).


Someone asked yesterday about the numbers. Didn't the Obama campaign boast about getting $100 million?


Neo, 11:29 by 'over there' I meant at the administration; late last year they asked the EPA to withdraw an email rather than accept delivery of it. They have since accepted a revised EPA report seeking 'more comments'. I believe Cheney at least, and maybe others at the White House have figured out that the globe is cooling and that the role of carbon dioxide in climate regulation has been exaggerated.

Reading your link next, Bill; the PDO has entered a cooling phase and the sun is unusually quiet.


OMG, Kim! That just can't be true. What will we do about all those textbooks?


BobS: Yes, they boasted that they COULD bring in $100 million this month. So, $30 million ACTUALLY raised would be a little embarrassing.


"OMG, Kim! That just can't be true. What will we do about all those textbooks?"

Burn them to keep warm.


Jake Tapper had a post on it this morning:

What Happened to Obama's $100 Million June?

So far the $30 mil figure is just rumors from the Obama camp; nothing official has been released.

Someone at Hot Air speculated that one consequence of Obama not taking public financing is that now he will have a harder time moving to the center on issues like drilling, because he is so in need of environmental lobby money for the general and the greenies will go ballistic if he tacks right on that issue. That was just one example of a source of funding he can't afford to offend, and it may not be accurate, but I thought it was interesting.


E D Hill seems to have taken over Fox's 5 P M EDT spot. Thank goodness rumors of her firing were false.

From a previous thread, proof that brevity is the soul of wit: Bill Clinton felt our pain, Obama wants us to feel his.
Posted by: bad | July 10, 2008 at 12:19 PM
I hate when my kids birthdates shift unexpectedly making it impossible to plan ahead for a party. Posted by: bad | July 10, 2008 at 10:22 AM
The Iranians are full of talk, but may not have anything to fight with. Posted by: BobS| July 11, 2008 at 04:29 PM They fought the vaunted Iraqis over 8 years to....a draw.

glenda waggoner

Centralcal-Ever notice how Shuster never takes a breath? He is definitely a Bot-And his voice gets higher and higher when he's
lying(especially when talking about the MB:)

JM Hanes


"Please note the quiet Friday non-release release of the "news" about Obama's campaign taking on the appearance of a big balloon with just a few really tiny holes."

Gotta love Jake Tapper! He asks the questions I want answered: "What Happened to Obama's $100 Million June?" He also supplies great debunking links.

Other than ignoring previous highly touted claims and tactfully reporting that "June fund-raising for Sen. Obama appears to be falling below the expectations of some supporters," the Wall St. Journal has a decent roundup of the numbers for both campaigns. Tapper however, reminds us, per The Hill, that such "supporters" were but an echo of "Leading Democratic fundraisers" who were saying that "Obama could raise $100 million in June and could attract 2.5 million to 3 million new donors to his campaign."

These fundraisers say Obama could increase his fundraising dramatically because of three factors: a boost of enthusiasm among Obama donors following his clinching of the nomination; the migration of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s (D-N.Y.) donors to his camp; and the mobilization of big Democratic donors who have given little so far this year.
Given the excuses on offer from "fund raisers" in the Journal today, apparently most of the drama was supposed to be provided by those Clinton donors. Gaffes like needing a do-over at the unity podium when actually making the pitch to retire Clinton's debt just slipped Obama's mind probably aren't helping!
The reason for the lower-than-expected numbers for Sen. Obama, fund-raisers said, was his continuing difficulty in getting former supporters of Democratic rival Hillary Clinton to open their purses for him, following a protracted, bitter primary battle. Sen. Obama has also tacked to the middle on some recent policy issues, annoying many in the left wing of the Democratic Party. These more liberal-leaning supporters make up a large proportion of his small-donor cadre. The campaign says that some 1.7 million people have given $200 or less, making up 45% of Sen. Obama's total.
Of course, the Obama folks haven't officially released June numbers yet. Someone somewhere pointed out the inverse proporation between how much money Obama rakes in and the length of time it takes to produce his monthly stats, so we may be looking at next Friday, not tonight. There's another Friday after that one, if the news is really bad -- and when they can only top McCain's $22 million with a "likely" total of "just over $30 million," it's not looking good for Obama to me.

How "likely" is it that the Obama campaign doesn't really know the number yet? I'm almost willing to bet that the real total is just under $30 mil and they're desperately trying to figure out how to give boost it over that bar. As a conceptual matter, any figure in the 20's, puts Obama and McCain in the same ballpark. Add in Party $$ and the comparison becomes downright embarrassing! Given the frantic pace of big ticket fundraisers going on right now, maybe they'll even wait till the end of the month, in order to preempt the June report with pumped up stats from July as quickly as possible. That decision probably depends on just how much grief it looks like the press intends to give them for stalling. Will we be looking at collective amnesia on who and where the predicted $100 million came from?


I'm wondering with the markets in such turmoil--the hedge funds, et al, are more concerned with their portfolios than with this silly presidential campaign:-)

Watched Charlie Rose's interview with Jami Dimon of JP Morgan fame and although he's a D--he thinks it would be catastrophic to raise taxes at this point in time.

clarice feldman

Yes,cc.It was the tapper piece, and I agree with jmh, he's doing a heck of a job---almost single handedly.


JM: I suggest the Obama campaign has become intoxicated by thee from the fawning coverage of their own MSM. Some of their moves over past few weeks have been puzzling.

First, to have Obama's acceptance speech at an NFL stadium. Security? What if it the crowd turns into Chicago circa 1969? Hell what if there are 30,000 or more empty seats? All great for TV.

Second, how on earth can you boast $100 million in a month? A MONTH? Talk about MISoverestimating.

Third, Obama is lurching so hard and so fast to the center, even McCain and Mort Kondrake were knocked down. Can you say, transparent?

Fourth, that seal. Please tell me someone from the Daily show of Jimmy Kimmel photoshoped that, and its not a future member of your administration.


I really should proof my forum rants. I meant to say The Daily Show or Jimmy Kimmel


Chuck Schumer is caught in this mess:
U.S. Shuts Big Bank As Crisis Intensifies

In a written statement, the Office of Thrift Supervision, which regulated IndyMac, said "the immediate cause" of the failure was statements made by Sen. Charles Schumer, a New York Democrat. Mr. Schumer in late June publicly raised concerns about the bank's solvency.

Oh, goodie. Hearing Schumer get bad press will brighten Clarie's day

Rick Ballard


Part of the reason for the success of the Obama Putsch was Clinton's phony assumption and projection of an air of inevitability in the summer, fall and early winter. The "100 Million Dollar Month" falls into the same category - creation of an illusion for propaganda purposes. I doubt that he'll take in half that total but, like "The Million Man March", the mythos will continue.

I've been toying with the Obama Bear Market Report but the reality is that equity markets with a total value of over $18 trillion dollars the day before the putsch now have a value of less than $17 trillion. The biggest scare stories on the mortgage problems place a $1 trillion price tag worldwide on the problem, Obama's putsch did more financial damage in five weeks than the entire mortgage crisis has caused in close to two years.

Progs kill - freedom, people and the economy.


OK, Soriano is out and Fukudome isn't a legit starter, but I will defend the choice of Giovany Soto to the death. He's already an outstanding receiver, game caller, thrower and hitter. In a couple years, the reincarnation of Johnny Bench, or better!


LUN---- From the NYTs. Sweetness-Light.com is reporting that the NYTs is running an article critical of Rep Rangel and his 4 rent controlled apartments in NYC.

"While aggressive evictions are reducing the number of rent-stabilized apartments in New York, Representative Charles B. Rangel is enjoying four of them, including three adjacent units on the 16th floor overlooking Upper Manhattan in a building owned by one of New York’s premier real estate developers."



I've been working on the article (I'm hoping to get a proposal out to AT on Sunday) and have it narrowed down to [1] active measures malaise (black hat info ops to cause fear and panic, peak oil, global warming-wanted to include a bit about the polar bear listing and Greenland and Alaska {environmentalist lawfare}) [2] Iranian-Russian bullying (the Iranian misssle test seems to be a good jumping off point, but I don't lack for targets, but do want to include the firm-state idea) [3] Petrodollar crisis (I'm still kicking this one around but wanted to include it for housing market weakness->dollar weakness->global inflation, but don't want to go too far into the weeds) [4] "supply and demand" factors which would encompass the Asian Conference (subsidy reductions), Jeddah Conference, Kazakh slowdowns, Brazil and Greenland discoveries, KSA modernization, and a few asides about the size of Caspian Sea/Central Asian reserves.

Anyway, I'm still casting a pretty wide net and am looking to find a good place to cut or maybe the best place to begin...

JM Hanes

Since this is an open thread.... In the course of looking up John Murtha's congressional district, I came across this PDF map. I wonder (idly) if that spectacularly gerrymandered piece of turf is what how his district started out.

clarice feldman

pagar, they did run tha tpiece and today I read the tenants of the bldg were screaming in anger at Rangel who like Dodd claims he didn't know he'd gotten a special deal.



And for some more grist seems that the shockwave is going to hit hard elsewhere...seem to remember this very statement coming up before.


It is unclear how Spanish authorities could conduct a rescue operation along the lines of Bear Stearns, given that there is no clear lender of last resort in the eurozone system. Fears the Bank of Spain could find itself hamstrung in a crisis have begun to unsettle investors.

Well we'll get to see just how strong and "unconnected" a financial system has to be to absord a few Bear Stearns level shocks. And the bad news is that Spain isn't the only problem in the eurozone.

Rick Ballard


It might be interesting to start with a brief comparison of 2000 Projections of 2005 production and 2008 reality. The contrast between expected and actual production for the KSA and Russia (including the Caspian play) makes the Caspian holdback at Russia's behest seem more likely. Note that Angola and Brazil didn't even rate their own line in 2000.


Thanks Clarice. I wonder just how far a person would have to be divorced from reality, not to realize that having four rent controlled apartments in NYC was a special deal not available to the average American?

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