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July 30, 2008

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kim

Arctic Ice melt this year is 900,000 sq. kilometers behind last year, and melt rates are starting to drop. It is now very unlikely that this year's melt will exceed last year. It even looks like 2004 may be the last year with less melt than this year's. I'm in hopes that the symbolic value of this year not melting like last can re-inforce the message that we are cooling. I'm in further hopes that this can become an election issue, because clearly Republicans are on the right side of the science on this issue, and Democrats the wrong.

Shhhh, don't tell anyone that last year's melt had more to do with currents and unusual winds than with temperature.

Follow The Great Northern Baby Ice Race at climateaudit.org
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PaulL

Olmert to resign in two months.

anduril

Last comment on the previous thread was clarice's re Wechsler's tax scam. AMAZING.

jimmyk

Republicans are on the right side of the science on this issue

...except for McCain, of course.

PaulL

Meanwhile, McCain still gives his rote "global warming is real" answer at town halls. Oh well, I try to concentrate on how much worse Obama is.

Rick Ballard

You can watch the Baby Ice desperately fleeing from the ravenous maw of the CO2 Monster here.

WARNING! The Baby Ice race is faster than a glacier race but not much faster.

Or - you can entertain youself with reflecting upon the import of the largest break off from the Ellesmere Island ice shelf since 2005.

The Warmers are really getting into a hot panic due to the lack of a decent scare headline - fortunately, they will all soon cool off.

anduril

Call for J. Jackson. we need you to deal with a Congressman from Florida, or Maryland, or where ever.

kim

jimmyk, right, I really didn't say that right. There is a general party break between skeptics and believers, but Republican politicians have had to toe the line of believing in AGW because the general public still believes it. Thompson was the only one of the 20 candidates who knew what a fraud AGW is.

McCain has drawn a shallow line in the sand with his support for off-shore drilling. Maybe he can deepen it as we go on.

Actually, I doubt that the progression of skepticism is rapid enough for the business of global cooling to effect this election. Maybe, just maybe, Arctic Ice can be a tipping point, but you sure aren't going to hear about it from the media. Instead we get this ice shelf thing, which is 20 sq. kilometers. Daily ice melt in the Arctic is tens of thousands of sq. kilometers.
==========================

Rick Ballard

Kim,

McCain's public stance is tuned to an Oprah/People understanding of the Warmer position, just as his position on drilling is tuned to that same level of understanding wrt the oil market. Expecting him to shoot higher would be asking him to fire right over the horde of midgets on Shetland ponies heads. He knows the Muddle - it has to be herded 'cause it's just not up to being led. "Maybe he can deepen it as we go on." is about the best we can hope for.

kim

Yes, Rick, and it's why I'm not harsh on McCain about climate. He does know the muddle, something Obama doesn't, and they do elect the President.
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Neo

check out Major DNC Donor to Party Treasurer: Obama is a Bad Investment

...

Getting not one bill passed in the first 6 years of his career in not inspiring. Having Emil Jones hand him the ball 26 times on the one-yard line in order to make Obama a United States Senator does not cut it either. What deals he made, he did to benefit no one but himself. He never worked long enough in either Senate to help the people who elected him. Andy, I could never imagine you taking credit for legislation someone else slaved over. Starting in his community organizing days he claimed sole responsibility for other people's accomplishments all for the purpose to boosting his career.
...

anduril

I see. The secret decoder ring. Amaaaaaazing.

Danube of Thought

Apparently the two Israeli newspapers that alleged Obama had authorized publication of his "prayer," and that copies of it had been distributed by the campaign, have backed off from those stories. Stay tuned.

anduril

Neo, here's another segment:

Please, show me something this guy ever did that was not done in a calculated fashion to create and advance his own personal narrative? Something selfless, perhaps, just because it was the right thing to do?

Every person I have talked to who worked at the Law Review at Harvard with him, or in the later part of his career, said the same thing: he was arrogant and self-centered. One person laughed, saying Obama wanted to be King of the World, that he was always running for something, never staying in one place long enough to amass accomplishments or be held accountable.

I assume that U of C Law School took hm on because they figured he had a political future and could help them down the line. Same reason la Michelle got the sweet gig at their hospital.

First CD done, first coat on. I'll outdo Hitler without breaking a sweat.

kim

Whoa, Neo, that is a marvelous letter.
========================

anduril

But will the midgets understand it?

kim

It seems to have been ignored on an earlier thread, but hrtshpdbox's hint to read Dana Milbank on Obama is a good one, and fits with this arrogance theme. I found the WaPo article at RCP.
======================

Rick Ballard

Karl on The Kiss of the PUMA Women. I put the split at 30 rather than 40 but I do take the Dick Morris quote "For a Democrat to be losing among women over 40 is without precedent in the past 20 years." to heart.

I wonder if the residents of Chapaqua have been reporting hearing loud cackling coming from Hariworts?

MayBee

You can watch the Baby Ice desperately fleeing from the ravenous maw of the CO2 Monster here.

You are truly hilarious.

SWarren

Interesting report from Rasmussen:

In White House Race, Twice As Many Voters Uncommitted Compared to Four Years Ago

Uncommitted Republicans are far more likely to lean towards McCain than uncommitted Democrats are to lean towards Obama.

MikeS

McCain should call a news conference to announce that he is retracting his claim that Obama wants to lose the war in Iraq. McCain should admit that Obama never said that. He should point out that what Obama said was more like he didn't want to win or he did want to not win, but he definitely did not say that he wanted to win.

McCain should go on to explain that it doesn't matter much now because we won, but what does matter is what Obama wants to do in Afghanistan. Does he want to win or lose? If he wants to win, what does he mean by win?

Neo

Why does this feel so much like Vince Foster deja vu ?

SWarren

Oops,didn't preview.Missed pasting this part of the relevant info:

It’s worth noting that there are far more uncommitted voters at this point in Election 2008 than there were four years ago. The Election 2004 Presidential Tracking Poll showed that 92% of voters were committed to either President Bush or Senator Kerry on July 24, 2004. Only 8% were uncommitted.

This year, 37% of the uncommitted voters plan to vote for a Democratic Congressional candidate while 22% say they’ll vote for the GOP. But, when asked which way they’re leaning in the race for the White House, 26% say McCain and 19% say Obama. Twenty percent (20%) say they still prefer a third-party candidate.

Uncommitted Republicans are far more likely to lean towards McCain than uncommitted Democrats are to lean towards Obama.

kim

I agree, SW, all those people abhorring McCain for not being conservative enough are not going to vote for Obama and I doubt they'll stay home if it's close. The desire to punish the moderates, and rebuild a conservative Republican Party on the ash heap of an Obama Presidency is fading. I noticed it on Polipundit just the other day.
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Jack is Back!

We are in Antwerp, via London, via Newark, via Orlando, via Palm Coast, Fl. Funny, we brought our own weather. What ever happened to Global Warming. Now everyone we see is in shorts and camp shirts. Jimmy Buffet could give a concert here. Not a mention of Obama or McCain. Its all about gas prices and who won the tour. Then of course, a lot of people are talking about the quality of the sole they bought in Zeebrugge when they came back from the seaside. Me, I am flipping out on Duvel.

kim

Ah, Obama is trying a little pre-emption. He told an audience in Springfield, Missouri that his opponents would try to make them scared of him.

This is going to be fun. Please, let him be the nominee. If they switch to Hillary at the convention, she can take that momentum all the way through. As several here have noted, women are pissed about Obama.
=================================

PeterUK

Obama MSM Backlash ?
It might also please you to know that journalists and members of the public here are questioning the substance of Obama.One Tony Blair was enough for the world.

Danube of Thought

Trying to make us scared of him? I don't need no stinking McCain campaign for that. If this vainglorious tyro becomes our chief of state, be afraid--be very afraid.

Neo

More from Jack Tapper ..

Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, met with House Democrats yesterday, talking about his trip abroad and his observations.

Obama told the caucus, according to an attendee, "Nobody said this to me directly but I get the feeling from my talks that if the sanctions don’t work Israel is going to strike Iran." Others in the room recall this as well.

This isn't the kind of stuff that any politician running for office as the "anti-war guy" wants anyone to know that he knows.

clarice

Ah, it's just a little media foreplay--a tiny slap and tickle--the hint of the lash as it were. At climax time(late October) the media will surely be in bed with Obama all the way through to the count..

Topsecretk9

This has to be one of the stupidiest things the Democrats have done.

Incredible. I thought they wanted free health care?

Appalled

clarice:

I think you underate the corrosive effect of the way Obama wants to manage the press. They will rebel.

Jim

Any Virginians out there?

I just heard Jim Gilmore, former Virginia governor, speak here in Charlottesville at a campaign stop. Not too shabby. He's running against Mark Warner for a Senate seat. He has the right ideas and by all accounts is honest and competent. Warner has big lib funding, but I hear Gilmore has a record or winning upsets in his races.

Kaine will be a wasted pick for Obama VP, by the way. Because McCain will still take Virginia.

centralcal

Big Mama - Michelle O - in an except from her People interview:

"On some level I view myself – as do many women in my position – as 120-percenters, meaning we feel good about what we're doing when we're doing it at 120 percent. So, I could be very competent putting 70 percent in, but I don't feel good about it. I feel like, if I'm going to master it, I'm going to master it. Where I've had to come – not just in this campaign, but in my life of having so much that I'm doing, my career, the role of mom and exercise and all these other things that I have come to believe are just as important – is I've had to sort of let go of that 120-percent thing and say, I can't do everything. I am not going to realistically be the policy expert on every opinion and position that Barack has because I don't have the time to do it, quite frankly. And I have to be okay with that."

What a brain she has. What intellect. And what the heck does she mean "the role of mom and exercise..."

They are both arrogant in the extreme - Michelle and Barry!

clarice

Well, from your mouth to God's ear, Jim--I've read no one who doesn't think Warner will win.

kim

At RCP, Brian Montopoli has an article about the McCain campaign seizing on energy for their winning strategy. So far it's all about off-shore drilling and energy independence, but maybe they have polling that shows the whole AGW thing in jeopardy. I've certainly heard more skeptical voices lately, and commonly from unsophisticated observers of the scene. The paradigm of exquisite climate sensitivity to CO2 is collapsing. Please, please, please.
================================

Rocco

I can't vote for McCain.

kim

Ha, now we have a sidebar ad about Obama being the Dr No of energy security. Question that Tom might be able to answer. Do we all see the same sidebar ads?
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kim

Please, Rocco; he's relatively harmless. I used to despise McCain over the Swiftie business, but Obama is Bad News.
=====================================

PeterUK

"I've certainly heard more skeptical voices lately, and commonly from unsophisticated observers of the scene".

You mean,like all those who look out of the window,find themselves turning on the central heating in July and having to wring the cat out when it comes in?
How does Al Gore know what the weather is like? He never goes outside an air conditioned environment.

cathyf
I've certainly heard more skeptical voices lately, and commonly from unsophisticated observers of the scene.
Case in point: characters on TeenNick sitcom Zoe101 are sitting at the lunchroom table. One claims that his hamburger is overcooked. Another rather dryly comments that it must be because of global warming. All the kids chuckle.
kim

Ah, cf, those chuckles warm the cockles of my heart. Schoolkids have had 'An Inconvenient Truth' rammed down their throat. My daughter almost saw it twice but I was allowed to put a stop to the second one. I wrote a long note to the teacher, who read it, said "Whatever" and excused her. She has one other kid in her class who is a skeptic, but this is a blue town.
===========================

anduril

And what the heck does she mean "the role of mom and exercise..."

They are both arrogant in the extreme - Michelle and Barry!

Posted by: centralcal | July 30, 2008 at 04:35 PM

That's her four a week personal trainer habit.

SWarren

Kim,
Please, Rocco; he's relatively harmless. I used to despise McCain over the Swiftie business, but Obama is Bad News.
I too despised him on the Swiftvet issue, AND McCain-Lieberman Bill, AND L.O.S.T. AND ICC.
But considering the alternative, I WILL vote for McCain.

Publius

"I am not going to realistically be the policy expert on every opinion and postion that Barack has because I don't have the time to do it, quite frankly".

What I think Michelle is telling us, Centralcal, is that after being first lady for 8 years she will have had the time to be an expert on every posistion and therefore ready to assume the first seat for another 8 years.

sbw

Rocco: I can't vote for McCain.

I can't let Obama win by my inaction.

sbw

[OT] In Hilton Head for the week with kids and their friends. What a relief from listening to pseudo news. [/OT]

Rocco

He wrote a bill that silences the voice of the public...before an election and another that would have granted amnesty to illegal immigrants. The Gang of 14, Global Warming, ANWR, Kerry and now taxes. But I'm really pissed that Evangelicals threatened to stay home if he picks Romney.

clarice

sbw--Next election let's write the news ahead of time--these things are getting formulaic enought that one can--Start making up names of some polling outfits and find the NYT's Packer fellow to be our man on the street.

bad

Rocco

Who are these "Evangelicals" so often referred to by the MSM? Or does someone just make up s**t and attach "evengelical" to it?

centralcal

I despise John McCain (current tense, nothing past tense about it), but I will vote for him because the alternative is many degrees worse.

I too am p.o.'d about the Evangelicals and their threat over Romney.

Publius

*******position*******

kim

The code for evangelicals in Obama's Western Wall prayer was when he asked God to make him an instrument of His will. Imagine if Bush had said that.
======================

hit and run

MichelleO:
but in my life of having so much that I'm doing, my career, the role of mom and exercise and all these other things that I have come to believe are just as important

Remember this Michelle?

In a 2004 interview with the Chicago Tribune, Michelle observed: "What I notice about men, all men, is that their order is me, my family, God is in there somewhere, but me is first. ... And, for women, me is fourth, and that's not healthy."

Campaign Spot reader Jeff does.

Rocco

Evangelicals warn against Romney on ticket

kim

I still think he'll pick Romney. Mitt will roll the Club for Growth in with him.
=================================

Rick Ballard

"Who are these "Evangelicals" so often referred to by the MSM? Or does someone just make up s**t and attach "evengelical" to it?"

That would be Baptists, mostly. Same group that McCain worked to split in order to sideline ole Huck the Schmuck (although the Huck wing would have less trouble with Mitt than the Hagee wing).

It's really ephemerical now - the Baptists don't carry much weight in the battleground states. They might be blamed for McCain not picking Mitt but it won't be the reason. Mitt won't be picked because he's too damned smart - you don't put a 100W bulb next to a 60W bulb and expect people to look at the 60W.

bad

I know what an evangelical is just want to know who the phantom evangelicals are that supposedly have so many issues as stated by the MSM. As for Obama, any evangelical who has read any of his interviews on spirtuality already knows not to vote for him if that is a litmus issue.

kim

Nice link, Rocco. Lambro backs me up about the fiscal conservatives. The social ones can be fired up with Wright videos.
====================

SWarren

Gary Bauer says he has polled Evangelicals and that Romney is the number one choice of around 60% of them.
LUN

bad

Mitt won't be picked because he's too damned smart - you don't put a 100W bulb next to a 60W bulb and expect people to look at the 60W.

Exactly, but the evangelical stuff gets made up and thrown in there to divide conservatives.

Rocco

Evangelicals are certainly free to vote for whom ever they deem fit. I wonder if McCain is willing to sacrifice the GOP by not picking the guy who would give the GOP the best chance.

Rick Ballard

SWarren,

Those are the Hewitt type evangelicals, and Bad - I was just trying to define the table pounders, I hadn't looked at the piece that Rocco cited but I didn't need to read it to know who was making noise.

bad

Thanks Swarren, that sounds more realistic.

bad

Rick, my suspicion is that one or two people give their views, refer to themselves as evangelical, and TADA!!!! evangelicals as a group are pegged. Not that I'm cynical...

sbw

Clarice, not done with this election and we've already got the script for the next one. Sigh. I hope not. Someday the light has to turn on.


glenda waggoner

bad:
they are probably polling on the evangelical thing--I get Zogby poll requests monthly and the question"Do you consider yourself, born-again or evangelical" is always on there.
I answer however I feel will help our side.
That's why you can't run a country or an election by polls. And I have never met anyone who dislikes/likes Romney(in Southeast) because of religion. Most, like me, will hold their nose and vote McCain.
I do think the Morris article about Obama losing women over 40 is big, though.

Sara

Powerline takes on the ignorance of the "None." It is both hilarious and pathetic and definitely a must read with video.

Get This Man A Teleprompter!

Barack Obama is a lot like Sean Penn or George Clooney. If you give him a script, he can deliver it pretty well. But if he tries to talk without a script that has been written for him by others, he quickly reveals that he is poorly-informed if not downright ignorant. Today he delivered another classic, by claiming that if only we would all properly inflate our tires, we could save as much gasoline as "all the oil that they're talking about getting off drilling." Seriously:

[video]

The stunned silence with which the crowd greets this howler suggests that most Americans have a more practical understanding of energy consumption than Obama.

Just for fun, I did the math. ...

Read it all.

Sara

I don't know if any of you are already familiar with the Q Spot Blog, I just discovered it. I highly recommend you look, especially at this:

Open Letter to Barack Obama.

RichatUF

Sara I saw that, and I've seen Obama's comment popping up in a few other places as well [a perfect example of a "put on a warmer sweater" moment]. The Powerline number is a bit short though.

The Minerals Management Service puts the number in the 4 OCS areas at 85.8 billion bbls, which doesn't include the new USGS Arctic Survey numbers. I'm a bit stumped the Atlantic number is so low [1.2-7.5 billion bbl, with a 3.8 mean] given the discoveries in Greenland and Brazil and production in Venezuela and Nigeria.

Sara

RichatUF: Thanks for the additional info.

I'm in the group who always keeps my tires at the proper inflation. Learned it as a child when I was fascinated by the tire pressure thingy and my Dad taught me how to use it and then let me do the readings. Of course, I drive one of those dreaded SUVs that gets "gas guzzler" written on the dusty windows despite the fact that it gets between 30 and 33 mpg.

Ann

How the heck did this juvenile ever get close to being third in line to the Presidency:

Speaker Nancy Pelosi released the following statement today in response to remarks by President Bush on energy this morning at the White House:
"The President knows, as his own Administration has stated, that the impact of any new drilling will be insignificant - promising savings of only pennies per gallon many years down the road. Americans know that thanks to the two oilmen in the White House, consumers are now paying $4 a gallon for gas. But what Americans should realize is that what the President is calling for is drilling as close as three miles off of America's pristine beaches and in other protected areas.
"The President has failed in his economic policy, and now he wants to say, 'but for drilling in protected areas offshore, our economy would be thriving and the price of gas would be lower.' That hoax is unworthy of the serious debate we must have to relieve the pain of consumers at the pump and to promote energy independence.
"Today, the New Direction Congress will vote on legislation to bring down gas prices by taking crucial steps to curb excessive speculation in the energy futures market. The President himself could lower prices by drawing down a small portion of our government oil stockpile, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The New Direction Congress will continue to bring forth responsible proposals to increase supply, reduce prices, protect consumers, and transition America to a clean, renewable energy independent future."
SOURCE Office of the Speaker of the House

Jane

I have a friend (radio station owner) who constantly rails on Bush and Cheney, Halliburton, the 2 biggest oilmen in the country causing this oil shortage to line their own pockets. Frankly I have no idea how to respond to that because it is so unsupported by facts of any kind. If anyone has a 2 or 3 sentence answer, I'd love to hear it.

centralcal

I love it. Karl Rove has got this TV thing down pretty darned well. He just stomped all over Kirsten Powers on H & C. Good for him!

hit and run

Going back to "NewD irection" is a winning idea for Nancy!!!

sbw

Jane. He's busy blustering about what he's against. Ask hem what he's for. Ask him the difference between liberty and equality and, given a choice, which he prefers. Ask him where socialism -- government stealing other people's money to wield power has actually succeeded. Ask him if he's ever spent time reading about what economics have been most successful in history -- ours.

Elliott

So does that mean she's no longer going in a Newt direction?

clarice

Jane, I can't possibly think of a short answer to such ridiculous nonsense.

hit and run

I can.

I mean, not one to necessarily address his concerns.

But one that would be oh so emotionally satisfying.

Rick Ballard

Jane,

The first thing is that there is no "shortage" at all. There is no place on earth where oil cannot be purchased because it is unavailable. If you want to keep it short, then the answer to the tight supply situation revolves around Russian/Iranian political interference in the start up of production in the Caspian Sea. That production (which has been delayed since 2004-5) would have offset the supply imbalance all by itself (it will pump 1 mbd when it it reaches full production). That fact, coupled with the preannounced cutback in the Saudi Ghawar field and the delay in the startup of Thunder Horse due to damage caused by Katrina account for tight supply last year.

Today, the Saudis are pumping and so is Thunder Horse, the supply situation is improving and President Bush and Haliburton didn't have a damned thing to do with it.
--------------------

Shorter alternative - President Bush's rescission of the executive order barring offshore drilling caused a drop of $20 in the price of oil - why would he do that if he wanted to keep the price up?

____________________________-

Shortest alternative - you're nuts, get a life.

hit and run

Obama benefits from the corn shortage due to ethanol!!!

hit and run

Rick:
...why would he do that if he wanted to keep the price up?

Because Nancy just told us Bush knows opening up drilling will only take off pennies from the price of gas.

Nancy said so.

clarice

Is that because she loves latitude or is it congitude? I forget.

hit and run

Of course, Barack says inflate your tires -- which will net you 3% savings.

3% off $4.00 gas equals 12 pennies.


Elliott

JOM last week, The Corner this week.

The Campaign Spot is, of course, a different story.

Ann

Jane, How about:
We need more than two oilmen, we need oilmen, oilwomen, oilchildren and oilpets. We need Oil.

Centralcal, I saw Rove and he was great. I even liked the talking over dear Kirsten part. Rove.com....Go Karl!!!

Elliott

Clarice,

You have outdone yourself. Brava!

clarice

Thnx, Elliott--Now from the Mobile-Register--a truly great lede:
"While Anthony Hopkins was leading a revival in a small church on the outskirts of Jackson, Ala., Monday night, the body of a woman, presumed to be his wife, was stuffed in a freezer at his house in Mobile, waiting to be discovered by police. "

Ann

Or:

You know what the "hoax" is?

All the oil is in "protected areas offshore" and in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

How did that happen?, Mr.

Elliott

Was that a speedup, Clarice? Part six is "in development," I promise.

clarice

No--take your time--I'll be away for ages--but steal the lede if you like it. I see Robert Duvall playing the lead..

clarice

Bay Buchanan's had a great face lift and general do over, too. You can now tell her from her brother.

Ann

"You can now tell her from her brother."

LOL, Clarice

By the way, have a great trip!

clarice

Thnx..

MikeS

If anyone has a 2 or 3 sentence answer, I'd love to hear it.

It would not matter if Bush was Satan himself. More oil supply will drive the prices down!
Just talking about drilling has reduced the price by almost 15%.

centralcal

Bon voyage, Clarice! We will miss ya!

clarice

Thanks--Not so fast though--I'll be around until Fri afternoon. We still have lots of time to play.

Danube of Thought

A nice excerpt from U.S. News:

"The cracks are growing in the Democratic unity dam, and McCain may be on the verge of getting his act together. Sen. Barack Obama needs to step off his 'holier than thou' platform and get his designer shoes dirty. He needs to let voters catch a glimpse of the regular guy who may actually lurk under his veneer of superiority. From using a logo resembling a presidential seal at one speech earlier this year (an obvious error and never seen again) to addressing a crowd of 200,000 in Berlin and meeting with heads of state before he has reason to, Obama's puerile self-absorption may backfire on him and turn off the very voters he needs to turn on: the white working class. His campaign's use of Cecil B. De Mille speaking backdrops rivals Karl Rove's brilliant manipulation of wedge issues. But as Steve Kornacki of the New York Observer notes, this, too, has its downsides:

"'Mr. Obama's campaign has featured Reagan-like stagecraft that has made his opponents look like midgets, producing an effect that prompted Chris Matthews, in a moment that will haunt him to his grave, to talk of a certain "thrill going up [his] leg." But it never seems to move his polls numbers.'

"Indeed, according to Gallup and Rasmussen Reports daily tracking polls, Obama's European trip poll bounce dwindled almost immediately to pretrip levels.

"We here at usnews.com have also noted that sweeping speeches do not always have the desired effect.

"Obama needs to humanize himself. His campaign has done too good a job of apotheosizing him. A good start would be for Obama to apologize to Clinton supporters for not coming to her defense during the primaries and helping her battle a torrent of sexist media criticism."

They can feel it slipping away...

cathyf
Because Nancy just told us Bush knows opening up drilling will only take off pennies from the price of gas.
Well, it certainly can't take off more than about 300 pennies -- the rest is taxes, right?
Danube of Thought

Jane, how about this: Neither Bush nor Cheney is an oilman. Neither has any financial interest of any kind in the price of oil. Period.

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