Gustav Watch

Let's have a Gustav thread.

Comments

[Don Fowler]

Go Gustav Go!!! God is on our side.

[kim]

Pressure is 956 and landfall prediction has shifted slightly west. If it goes a little more west the storm surge, usually at the Northeast corner, will not be peaking at New Orleans. Really, it's just a cat 2 now, but likely to rise with the pressure dropping.
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[Michael Moore]

ditto Don.

[kim]

Hanna's still a long way off, but the path I saw for it has it crawling up the East coast. It may be worse. And Ike lurks.
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[kim]

C'mon, Leo, you can come out of the corner. We know you didn't mean it.
=========================

[sbw]

I'm keeping watch, but Gustav hasn't been sighted in central New York yet.

We get to spend the evening on Lake Delta watching fireworks as everyone living around the lake lights torches for the end of summer "Ring of Lights". Calm, 79 degrees, clear skies, and the crickets are chirping. ... And my wife and I just became empty-nesters. To guess how we feel during this change of life, read Lynn Johnston's "For Better of for Worse" on the comics pages today (Sunday). In college I coined the word happysad.

[kim]

tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ for Hurricane Hunter updates. Brendan Loy has an update, but I'm finding the comments at Wunderblog most helpful.
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[William Ayers]

Barry and I get all of our hurricane updates from Weather Underground.

http://www.wunderground.com/

[kim]

Thanks, Billy old pal, your link has Master's Wunderblog with all the great comments. Jeez, your name is familiar, have we met before?
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[Barry Dauphin]

Although Gustav is a dangerous storm that will cause substantial damage, it did not strengthen as projected yesterday. In fact it has weakened slightly. Storm surge will be bad, but not nearly as bad as some feared. People have gotten out of the way. My mother and cousin went to Baton Rouge today and said there was very little traffic, because so many people had already evacuated.

[Charlie (Colorado)]

hey, can anyone explain to me why people would still be living in a FEMA trailer three years later?

Unless, of course, they actually kind of liked the FEMA trailers.

[kim]

It gives them a chance to bitch about the government supplied insulation making them sick.
=====================================

[kim]

They are going to abrupt most of Monday's convention activities.
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[Semanticleo]

"C'mon, Leo, you can come out of the corner. We know you didn't mean it."

Oh, that's what the sing-song drone about 'apologies' from Simon was about.

Here's the 'regrettable' comment.

"Katrina 2 should land Sunday in NO.

Looks like God doesn't want another Republican White House (Congress either)."

Posted by: Semanticleo | August 30, 2008 at 07:26 PM

The reference was the Minister who got press coverage of him impressing his flock with
the power of prayer. He suggested, if it be god's will, people should pray for rain at Mile High Stadium the day of Obama's speech.

How you can go from 'god's will' to; 'You want people to die just to win an election' are too stupid for any words in my collection.

But please continue with your Engineer-worthy myopia.

You people see what you want to see; I'll write what I want and apologize when it seems necessary.

[boris]

How you can go from 'god's will' to; 'You want people to die ...

Falwell apologized for saying far less than you.

[kim]

Well gee, Leo, you could have been explicit, instead of leaving it to the imagination.
=========

[kim]

The way you have shamelessly retailed regressive leftist talking points here the last few days, it seemed pretty obvious that you were just riffing off of Don Fowler's and Michael Moore's remarks. Surely you were aware of them. Now you have the choice of being ugly or out of touch. Choose wisely.
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[Semanticleo]

"instead of leaving it to the imagination."

Yer playin' the wrong harp, Kim

Preaching to the choir.

Therefore, I'm marking down your absence as
'excused'.

Just try to give me the benefit of the doubt, and I'll try not to impute bad motives to fellow travelers.

[Charlie (Colorado)]

Leo, I had a question for you on the Palin thread. Did you miss it?

[kim]

Heh, I don't think you get it.
=================

[Charlie (Colorado)]

Here's another good one:

I’m beginning to sense that anti-Palin hysteria is building toward a collective psychological meltdown of truly epic proportions on the Democratic side of our political divide. Today, Democratic consultant Dan Conley angrily pushed us a little further to the brink of that by arguing that the selection of Palin by McCain was “cynical, undemocratic and frankly, unpatriotic.”

[Charlie (Colorado)]

Dammit, wrong thread.

[PDinDetroit]

Hate to say it, but it looks like Gus is strengthening. Not good for landfall then as this will impact coast and further inland. Hope he changes his mind...

OT

SemCleo - a simple "I meant no real harm" would have sufficed. I believe you make it worse by your further statements of attack to those on this blog - diminishing ROI.

[kim]

The lethal virus BDS has evolved to PDS. It causes rabid foaming at the mouth.

What I really like is that the progressives are revealed as Neanderthals. Listen to Fowler. Smell the stinking fish Leo has brought over for us to admire.
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[Sara (Pal2Pal)]

Does anyone remember seeing Blanco before Katrina hit? What a difference with Bobby Jindal, he is all over this, front and center. Go Bobby!

[kim]

Right PD, but the break Gus took after Cuba will be the difference between the sort of hurricane Florida took three of that year, and the one that hit New Orleans. It'll be bad, but not the Storm of the Century and not a historic disaster. Many are already looking at it as a chance for the Republicans to redeem themselves. Nagin sure hopes for a similar result for himself, and he may get it.
==============================

[Marilyn]

"If this offended anybody, I personally apologize," Fowler told ABC News. "It was a mistake, and it was a satirical statement made in jest. And one that I clearly don't believe."

"One doesn't anticipate that one's private conversation will be surreptitiously taped by some right-wing nutcase," said Fowler.

Right Wing Nutjob Alert

[hrtshpdbox]

Palin-Jindal in 2012 !!

[kim]

Look Leo, it's hard not to attibute bad motives to you when you willingly admit that you would cheerfully disinform in order to win power. That's one of the reasons I'm so distressed about you lately; there was a certain integrity to your commentary; it was often intelligent and funny.

Are you turning conservative in your old age? You wouldn't be the only one.
==============================

[PDinDetroit]

Kim - agreed. Carp about SOTC and all is way off base. I just do not like the storm track and the geography of the area.

I hope those involved get the credit deserved, without respect to politics. Live and learn gets my respect everytime...

[Jane]

Awww Sbw - consider it a job well done.

[Semanticleo]

"it's hard not to attibute bad motives to you when you willingly admit that you would cheerfully disinform in order to win power."

There is so much that is implied between the lines.

Let me make it simple for the engineers;

I am honest enough to admit it. Whereas

Y'all.........?????????????????????????

[Semanticleo]

'Leo, I had a question for you on the Palin thread. Did you miss it?"

Apparently.

Please repeat. (May not get to it till AM)

[kim]

Naw, honey, we believe this. Try it sometime, you might like it.
=======================================

[PDinDetroit]

Am I seeing this correct? It looks like the track shifted N-NE slightly...

[Charlie (Colorado)]

I was asking who you would recommend to add to my list of reform-minded politicians with a record of going after corruption in their own party, chosen from the D side of the aisle.

When I thought about it, I recalled that D rules don't even require a member indicted for a crime to resign their leadership position, whereas the R rules do.

[Charlie (Colorado)]

And what's this thing about engineers?

I mean, if it really means a whole lot to you, I am also a professional writer, have a screenplay in development, did my undergrad in Philosophy and used to have Stan Fish and Jane Thompkins over to the house for literary receptions.

[kim]

Yup, PD, Gus is stronger. 951mb and 120 mph, clearly a cat 3, now.
=========================

[PDinDetroit]

My thinking is that Gus will strengthen and be just at the cusp of Cat 4 tomorrow morning by 5-7 am - 944 mb, 133 mph, gusts 157. I think it will be slightly E of NHC Track.

Of course, I have absolutely no backing for this prediction. I will be glad to admit where I was wrong when I am "honest enough"...

[JM Hanes]

Just watching what I think was the latest the loop on the tube, it looked like Gustav was actually shifting slightly east. Didn't hear that in the bit of commentary I caught though. Anybody?

[kim]

95mb now and hints it might turn west. If it doesn't, and the pressure drops like it seems to be doing, New Orleans will hurt. The water gets cooler on in, and we can pray for a western turn. Maybe dry air will hit it at the last minute, which weakened Katrina.

Master's site was getting 8-10 comments a minute until 20 minutes ago, none since. The site is still up but no new comments. I'm going to get stupid here unless it comes back up.
==============================

[kim]

Agghh, 950mb. Usually I prefer my mistakes, but for a change I'm trying to convey information.
============================

[PDinDetroit]

JMH - no one is saying it, but it is what I saw as well. See my comment at 7:58 pm.

[PDinDetroit]

Kim - they have been having blog problems over there since 2 days ago. Guess they need an engineer to help...

[PDinDetroit]

Check out LUN - may take a while to load through...

[JM Hanes]

That's what I get for just diving in here, PD! I've been over in the party thread.

I'm watching on MSNBC at the moment, which is all about the politics of Gustav and how if the Republicans succeed in raising relief money, and (Gospel acc. to C.Matthews) seeming to care about poor people....

[Jane]

Brenden Loy says the levees should hold given the current track.

[JM Hanes]

If that's a real shift, poor Miss. & Alabama will get majorly slammed again.

[kim]

Yes, J, and it will mean peak surge at New Orleans. The comments I'd read seemed to think it's jogging west, but you may have seen something more recent.
=================

[JM Hanes]

I find it oddly disconcerting that when weather people say things like the eye is "looking better," they actually mean the storm is getting worse.

[kim]

OK, PD, on that link I don't see the turn east, but I don't see one west either. The eye, poorly seen, is in the middle of the swirling red mass.
==========================

[PDinDetroit]

Jump in anytime! You and I are among the few to think "EAST" wobble...

Yeah, those damn neocons and pretending to care an all - takes away all the dems fun with pretending to care!

In 2005, my church sent down 5 semi-trucks filled with stuff to help the people after Katrina. The rub of it all was they sent it to MS since it was the area that was affected, but was getting little attention.

When my father passed in Oct 2005, we asked for donations to be sent to MS Victims of Katrina.

Guess since it wasn't NOLA we really didn't care that much...

Gotta go restock milk here for my daughter before the storm hits!

[kim]

Yes, J. The mountains of western Cuba tore a real hole in the eye, and it has staggered all day, but seems to be forming up again and the whole formation is resuming symmetry. Remember, this was Cat 4 south of Cuba and if it had come between Cuba and the Yucatan it might well have been Cat 5 by now. Of course, it might have hit Mexico, too.

I ran into a comment on another blog claiming that the Cubans have the most highly developed evacuation scheme and claimed it was because it was Communist, like that was a good thing. Actually, I think they've just had a lot of practice. Reports are that this was their worst hurricane for 50 years, so Bush could do everyone a favor by sending relief there, too.
======================

[JM Hanes]

kim:

I was watching on T.V. When the web loop I was waiting on finally finished loading after an extended stay in server limbo, the actual eye does a little peek-a-boo but ends up on the western track.

[glenda waggoner]

Hello Friends and Countrymen...
I'm still here.
With Family and all I hold dear
We stayed at home, not wanting to travel
The roads and some people started to unravel
With prayers to all to the east-
Stay safe from Gustav, the swirling beast.
God help me-I'm not a poet- just wanted to tell all we stayed at home here in Texas-will keep all updated if we get any effects
tomorrow.
Thanks again for your kindness in thinking of me-and the great advice!
McCain/Palin in 08 is Great!

[SaveFarris]

Sundown in Baton Rouge and we still haven't had our first outer band yet. So far, at least here, Gustav is the Obama of hurricanes: all bluster and no impact.

[DebinNC]

"One doesn't anticipate that one's private conversation will be surreptitiously taped by some right-wing nutcase," said Fowler.

I wonder if Fowler castigated the FL Dem couple in 1996 who taped the private cell phone conversation between Newt Gingrich and John Boehner? Or reprimanded Jim McDermott for giving it to the NYT?

[Barney Frank]

The reference was the Minister who got press coverage of him impressing his flock with
the power of prayer. He suggested, if it be god's will, people should pray for rain at Mile High Stadium the day of Obama's speech.

You may be selling this Leo, but who's buying?
He said this weeks ago in a form rather different from your comment, whereas your comment was remarkably similar to the ones made just a day or two before by both Michael Moore and Don Fowler, and it was posted in the midst of one of your worst runs of Dem talking point collywobbles on record.

[JM Hanes]

Thanks so much for the update glenda -- writing poetry in slow-moving but exigent circumstances is a great mental pastime!

[Semanticleo]

"we believe this."

We believe what? I know it should be crystal clear, but help me out here.

[clarice]

Pkay, glenda. We've all got our fingers crossed for you and the gang.
Save ferris--ditto.

[Semanticleo]

Chaco;

I know there are some Dems who are honest brokers, (Dodd, Rangel, feingold) but I have to research the particulars since you have specified 'within own party'.

see you in the am

[Sue]

Let's see. Rain? Or a hurricane? Which seems more like an event killer and a real killer?

[SaveFarris]

Rain! We Have Rain!

In keeping with the "America is Terrible" theme of last week's DNC, only *THREE* of the HD channels here are providing coverage: Local CBS, CNN, and Weather Channel. Everyone else is in standard definition. Truly, we live in lean times...

[DKei]

God wants New Orleans destroyed and it's okay cause it's all lucifer. The hurricane should be a five, but the global warming super hurricanes can go to 8. If this doesn't work we should accidentally go to DEFCON 2 from 3 and trade for some nukes - Putin has to hear voices saying New Orleans, Lucifer, God and nukes. Lots of oil and a pipeline going to Chicago. National security and the refineries. These will have to be opened up somewhere else.

God won't write insurance for New Orleans so it should be the US government. They can't either, so the levies shouldn't be repaired, it's not worth it. The next hurricanes will be bigger and they will have to figure out it's not worth the money. We can turn it into a farm.

[sbw]

DKei, too much static. Time to retune the tinfoil hat.

[sbw]

Thank you, Jane. :-)

[Obamas Chief Metero..um...Weatherman]

Our best guest is the hurricane Gustav will track on a westernly east projectile with clouds and rain and other stuff.

In other news, Hurricane Barack will be hitting Wisconsin early next week packing pressure of 1000 FUBARs. That's like a category 10.

[kim]

I'd like it to be west, JMH, like at Houma, but the big kids at Wunderblog are talking about the mouth of the Mississippi. Winds aren't gaining much at about 120. Haven't seen a pressure lately, but it had a steady drop all afternoon.
================================

[PDinDetroit]

Still looks like an East Wobble for Gus. if it tracks East, then turns West right into NOLA...

I pray that I am seeing this wrong!

[Charlie (Colorado)]

I know there are some Dems who are honest brokers, (Dodd, Rangel, Feingold) but I have to research the particulars since you have specified 'within own party'.

Let's see: that would be Chris Dodd (D-CT) who accepted a cut-rate loan from a banking firm with business before his committee but professed not to understand the business of banking well enough to realize it was a special deal; and Charlie Rangle (D-NY15) who illegally held 4 rent-controlled apartments without realizing he was getting a special deal from his landlord and owns a "rental property" in the Dominican Republic for which he only intermittently reports income, and who refused to ask William Jefferson (D-LA2) to resign after he was indicted on bribery charges.

Yeah, you're off to a good start there, Leo.

[Charlie (Colorado)]

God wants New Orleans destroyed and it's okay cause it's all lucifer. The hurricane should be a five, .... they will have to figure out it's not worth the money. We can turn it into a farm.

What?

[PDinDetroit]

Looks like Gus is clearing an eye now!

Gotta catch some "shut-eye" for a while...

[Barry Dauphin]

Still looks like an East Wobble for Gus. if it tracks East, then turns West right into NOLA...

I haven't seen it track that way. It has been following the projected path pretty well, but did not follow projected intensification. It still looks like Houma could be hit directly, so just east of Houma would be the worst spot. The next two updates, at 10 PM and 1 AM should indicate if something "funny" will happen to the trajectory. So far on track southwest of N.O., heading basically NW.

[Barney Frank]

I know there are some Dems who are honest brokers, (Dodd, Rangel, feingold)

Well Charlie already covered the first two so we're left with Feingold whose great contribution to reform was making it easier for billionaires to influence politics while stifling the free speech of average joes. That McCain was his willing partner is to his great shame, but still leaves us wondering who is the Jefferson Smith of the Dems.

[cathyf]

We've got the weather channel on, and they are saying that authorities are warning to stay-behinds that if they get in trouble during the storm they are on their own -- first responders will be hunkered down until the storm passes.

What I want to hear (and don't expect...) is for Bobby Jindahl, or Ray Nagin, or somebody else in authority to say something like, "look, people, if you refuse to evacuate, and somebody has to come get you in a helicoptor, I want the first words out of your mouth when you get into the helicoptor to be, 'gee, I'm really sorry that you had to come rescue me!'"

[kim]

Yep, still headed for Houma, pressure rising to 953 and winds at 115. Gus ate some dry air.
=======================

[PDinDetroit]

Gus still East of Model Track Forecast - LUN.

[JM Hanes]

That slight eastward tack is really clear on that graphic, isn't it PD?

[Barry Dauphin]

Being a bit east of track and tracking east are not the same thing. The hurricane has been slightly east of models over the last day or so, but not tracking east. Still headed for Houma according to almost all services. It can change track but it has so far track in the direction predicted.

[clarice]

Funny, he should mention Rangel. A couple of weeks ago it was his rent controlled apts in the news, today it's that he wasn't regularly reporting income from his vacation home in the Caribbean. Some exemplar.

[MayBee]

What I want to hear (and don't expect...) is for Bobby Jindahl, or Ray Nagin, or somebody else in authority to say something like, "look, people, if you refuse to evacuate, and somebody has to come get you in a helicoptor, I want the first words out of your mouth when you get into the helicoptor to be, 'gee, I'm really sorry that you had to come rescue me!'"

You're nicer than me, cathy. I want them to threaten potential rescuees with attempted homicide. They are knowingly putting emergency workers' lives at risk by staying.

[MayBee]

attempted homicide charges

[Bill in AZ]

Folks, I may have instigated all of the angst re: clea with this post:

clea, are you cheering it, praying for it to get stronger, or just happy?

The hurricane will hit, thousands of volunteer rescue workers will work their butts off just like they did last time, and the MSM will smear them with lies once again if at all possible.

My guess is that they will get no traction this time around - their BS was exposed after the last one.

I purposely left out the 4th possibility that clea was simply hoping for Gus to interrupt the Rep convention - which is certainly a possibility.

The problem is that several things occurred recently in the press where it would appear that many libs (and press) appeared to be hoping to tie yet another natural disaster to the Republican party - and I just absolutely see flourescent red when this happens.

The MSM has invalidly made this meme stick - with the help of numerous liberal - and unfortunately some conservative (Michelle Malkin) - bloggers.

For several years now, in addition to a real job, I have been in charge of a volunteer Search and Rescue group that covers a large, rugged, and unforgiving terrain. Most folks know very little about Search and Rescue. In the west, for the most part, we are all volunteers. The responsible authority simply does not have the money or resources to permanently employ and have on hand what it takes to perform search and rescue operations. They can very quickly turn into very massive and expensive operations. Volunteers take on that role of first responder, perform their own training, raise their own money, put their lives on the line – all for various personal reasons. The vast majority of Search and Rescue organizations are very professionally run operations with highly skilled teams. My area requires frequent vertical rescues so we maintain a highly skilled rope rescue team. That is very risky work for “volunteers”.

There were literally thousands of volunteers who risked their lives as first responders on Katrina during and immediately after the hurricane hit. State and federal response kicks in immediately if necessary – as it did in this case, but the initial response is always the volunteers – they know the area.

The Katrina response was phenomenal – probably one of the largest and best operations in history, especially given the extremely difficult circumstances. And the MSM has done nothing but shit on the responders from the very first day, and it continues today with comments from the likes of clea, Michael Moore, Fowler, and the MSM.

Anyone with a browser can look at the actual timeline of Katrina and see what we all saw as it was occurring. New Orleans dodged a bullet. Katrina dropped to cat 3 before it hit, and for the most part it spared NO. Power was out, some trees were down, windows broken, roofs off, but folks were sitting in their lawnchairs in the French Quarter remarking about how NO was spared. The severe damage was east of there, in Mississippi and elsewhere. The National Guard was (appropriately) blasting, cutting, digging their way through that around the clock to get to where entire towns had disappeared. I know National Guard members who were there. You can’t necessarily blame the mayor, the governor, Brown, Bush, for thinking they had dodged a major bullet. The media was reporting it that way (though they seem to have forgotten). It was early the next morning that the levies breached, and water started creeping in – and why didn’t some local authority figure that out and notify proper authorities? and get the appropriate local, then state, then federal response moving? Too busy looting?

Clea, if I read your comment wrong, my apologies. In my defense, any more you seem to come in here just to fling turds – and this particular one sets me off. I used to think you came over here to learn, to try to understand why liberal thinking doesn’t seem to click… but I don’t know anymore.

[cathyf]

First of all, kudos to you, Bill. If you've ever watched The Weather Channel (Storm Stories) episodes on the Katrina rescues, you know that the Coast Guard and various other rescuers plucked 35,000 people up off of roofs and other flooded areas. One of the major problems that they were having was that there were so many rescuers in the air that they were having to devote lots of attention into not running into each other! All of this was being run out of a command post in the superdome -- which was hot and muggy and stank really bad, but nothing like what the MSM was claiming. (I first came to JOM during Katrina. I remember ridiculing some off-the-wall troll who was claiming that any disaster victim who missed one or two meals was going to die of starvation and thus Bush was a murderer!!!)

It took a long time for the real story to get out -- which was that the first responders were all too busy rescuing people to give interviews, so the journalists decided to invent the "fact" that there weren't any first responders doing anything in order to punish them for putting the victims first.

[Jane]

I want them to threaten potential rescuees with attempted homicide.

I want them to have to pay in advance.

[kim]

Well, hooray. Apparently the dry air did the trick. It's a strong Cat 2 and headed for Houma. Dry air similarly weakened Katrina from a 4 to a 3 at the last minute, which was bad enough but it still had a Cat 4 storm surge. This one was Cat 2 for most of the last 24 hours, so with any luck the surge won't overtop the levees.
======================================

[kim]

Well, Gus is scooting west along the Louisiana coast. Hanna is warming up, look out Carolina.
===============================

[M. Simon]

Ah leo,

I see you are still not man enough to apologize.

BTW I would not get on an airplane if I was you. Your life may depend on my work. You wouldn't want to die would you because of some useless Republican Engineer.

[Louisiana Louie]

Thanks to the hard work of Bush, Jindal, McCain and Palin, the Gustav storm was diverted. While Obama stayed in Chicago and smoked weed with Bill Ayers.

[PDinDetroit]

"My thinking is that Gus will strengthen and be just at the cusp of Cat 4 tomorrow morning by 5-7 am - 944 mb, 133 mph, gusts 157. I think it will be slightly E of NHC Track."

Nope, I was wrong on all accounts! I thank God for being wrong today on this - should be easier for NOLA now (hopefully). Prayers for all those in Gus' Path.

That felt good! SemCleo, care to join me?

[PDinDetroit]

Neo - there really are some nutballs out there! Man, that rant was tough to follow, even for this Rhodes Scholar ;)

[kim]

Well, PD, it was nip and tuck for awhile yesterday. I feared you might be right, too.

Gus is landfalling southwest of NoLa. Surge at NoLa is 7 feet, predicted to peak at 10-14 feet which should allow the levees to hold. Pressure is 957 mb, winds a strong Cat 2. The eyewall collapsed shortly before landfall because of cool water and wind shear. It could have been a lot worse, but it is bad enough. Delaying the onset of the convention, and rallying around is looking like a wise maneuver by the Republicans.

Now watch out for Hanna. Pressure is 994 mb and winds 65 mph. Lots of reasons for it to grow. Carolina, be careful.

H/t Jeff Masters.
==========

[PDinDetroit]

Kim - looks like we now have 6 storm areas that are now under watch! LUN.

[kim]

Yes, I read a comment somewhere that the tropics had exploded. It'll be blamed on global warming, for sure, but it is an error. Atmosphere and oceans have slightly cooled over the last four years.
=====================================

[Sue]

The Industrial Canal levels have officially reached their capacity and the water is still rising.

[Sue]

The water is entering the 9th Ward.

[Sue]

No breach of the levees yet, it is overtopping.

[Sue]

Drudge is headlining that hurricane winds miss NO. Deja vu anyone?