Looks Like Sully Is Serious

Andrew Sullivan, despite his long history of deploring the "Swiftboating" of John Kerry, remains determined to call into question John McCain's story about a Vietnamese prison guard drawing a cross in the dirt at Christmas.  Here is his initial post and three follow-ups.  Whoa.  Where is this freight train headed, asks Megan McArdle.

I know what you're thinking - unless we can interview every prison guard in Vietnam we can never prove this story to be false, and anyway, who cares?  But let's give Excitable Andy a chance to frame the issue:

And of course, none of this would be salient were it not for the obvious motive for coopting the story. McCain has never been a very devout man. He doesn't come across that way in his first account of the story; and he doesn't come across that way now. But as the Christianists took over the GOP, he must have understood that this was a problem - especially against Bush in 2000. So in 1999, the story, already poignant and true in its particulars, changes into a much more grandiloquent and sectarian affair, echoing deep evangelical themes and tropes.

And it would not be salient if McCain hadn't deployed the anecdote in his own words - with a misleading image - in a campaign ad, and used it again in front of an evangelical audience Saturday night. And it would not be salient if religious fanatics had not a strangle-hold on the Republican party, seeking doctrinal assurances and echoes of their own type of faith in political candidates.

...And why are we not allowed to ask these questions, when they relate to one of the most important questions anyone can ask about a president: the question of integrity? If McCain has fabricated a religious epiphany for political purposes, it is about as deep a betrayal of core integrity as one can imagine, and the latest example of how pernicious the religious domination of political life in America has become.

Hmm.  When John Kerry was running on his military resume yet refusing to release his records or his diary, these questions were deplorable.  Times change.

As to the notion that McCain is inventing his religiosity, I addressed that in my first post.  but ai am happy to try again for folks interested in an answer (I expect Sully's question is strictly rhetorical).  The fact is that John McCain, in describing his captivity to US News and World report in 1973, described the importance of God and faith in his prison experience in several passages, excerpted below:

I was finding that prayer helped. It wasn't a question of asking for superhuman strength or for God to strike the North Vietnamese dead. It was asking for moral and physical courage, for guidance and wisdom to do the right thing. I asked for comfort when I was in pain, and sometimes I received relief. I was sustained in many times of trial.

Later McCain described the church riot:

In March of 1971 the senior officers decided that we would have a showdown over church. This was an important issue for us. It also was a good one to fight them on. We went ahead and held church. The men that were conducting the service were taken out of the room immediately. We began to sing hymns in loud voices and "The Star-Spangled Banner."

The "gooks" thought it was a riot situation. They brought in the ropes and were practicing judo holds and that kind of stuff. After about a week or two they started taking the senior officers out of our room and putting them over in another building.

Shrewd of McCain to have planted those passages in 1973 in anticipation of the rise of the religious right.  And his talk to Reagan's prayer group in 1974 showed similar foresight:

"In 1974, his last year as governor, Reagan invited McCain to speak at the annual prayer breakfast in Sacramento. 'Nancy cries when we send out the laundry,' said Reagan in his introduction, 'so I want to tell you, she'll never make it through listening to a talk by our next guest, Commander John McCain.' Never glancing at a note, McCain told a prison parable, of being in solitary, a hole in the ground, [Note: In the entire official records, McCain was never, yes never, ever in solitary - in a hole in the ground. POWs at the Briarpatch were, but not McCain - in any of the prison camps where he spent time.], unbearable heat, suicidal thoughts intensifying. By chance he discovered some scratchings on the wall, the words of a previous inmate: 'I believe in God, the Father Almighty.'"

"Reagan was right. Mrs. Reagan had the Kleenex out within five minutes. She wasn't alone. 'There must have been three hundred or four hundred people, maybe more than that, all these people sobbing,' said Nancy Reynolds. 'Not just sniffling. Ronald Reagan was sitting up there bawling. We were all dazzled,' she continued. 'He was a natural speaker, as she was beginning to realize, a natural politician.

Now, McCain's critics (IIRC, it was at DKos) have read that passage and cite it as evidence that the cross-in-dirt story is fabricated!  Their point is that the cross story would have been at least as powerful a tale as the story McCain told.  My response is this - if McCain was inventing stories of his religiosity in 1974, that is hardly consistent with Sully's theory about McCain inventing a religious tale to solve his political problem with the religious right in 1999.

Whatever.  Sully was not interested in the facts when Kerry was the subject, and I doubt he is interested in the facts now.  Although we will never have proof of the "cross in dirt" story, there is certainly evidence that McCain found comfort in his faith during his time in captivity, as revealed in those passages from 1973/74.  Hence, Sully's concern that McCain may have "fabricated a religious epiphany for political purposes" can be set to rest (but I bet it won't be!).

While we are here, let's tackle Sully question about "The Nightingale's Song" - three of McCain's Christmases in Vietnam are described with no mention of the cross-in-dirt story.  Inexplicable?  Well, "Nightingale" gives a sentence to the church riot on p. 194 but I can find no mention (using Amazon's search) of McCain linked to praying or prayer, nor do I find the "Father Almighty" story McCain told in 1974.  Does that mean that McCain de-fabricated them as of 1995, or is it possible that the author had little interest in that aspect of McCain's prison experience?

With that said, I know we will be able to rouse Andrew's new-found curiosity about loose ends and war stories.  Why was it that Zaladonis, a ship-mate of Kerry's in Vietnam, was interviewed repeatedly by Douglas Brinkley and by the Boston Glove reporters in 2003 yet never mentioned that he was with Kerry when Kerry won his first Purple Heart?  Zaladonis only provided the detail that he was with Kerry for Kerry's first combat, first medal, and the scariest night of Zaladonis' life when Kerry came under criticism in 2004.  Odd?  Kerry never released the records (such as his Purple Heart application) or his War Notes that might have shed light here.  Troubling?  Isn't that question at least as valid as the questions Sully is proposing today?

Or if Sully is worried that McCain is lying about his religious conviction (There are no atheists in foxholes but plenty in POW camps?), maybe we can get him as interested in the little matter of Obama's tie to Bill Ayers.  That is a topic where we know that the Obama camp has been lying to reporters; here is The Politico from last April:

Information about the pair's connection has been dribbling out over the past few months. Obama first met Ayers in 1995, during Obama's first state Senate campaign, and the two met with a small group of local liberal activists at Ayers' house. Exact details of the meeting are unkown because Obama and Ayers have declined to discuss it.

The Politico dates that meeting to the second half of 1995; Obama became chair of the Chicago Annenberg Challenge in January 1995.  The Challenge was dedicated to education reform and co-founded by Bill Ayers, who worked closely with the chairman for several years thereafter.  Right now Stanley Kurtz is trying to get the Chicago Annenberg Challenge archives but despite initial permission his access has now been taken away.  Why the cover-up? 

And why am I confident that questions that cut to the heart of Kerry's character, or Obama's, are still viewed by Sully as nothing more than deplorable right-wing distractions despite his own ludicrous assault on McCain's assertions of faith?

Comments

[Daddy]

The only individual Sully has successfully sullied these last few years is himself.

[pagar]

Good Morning to All!
Nothing Sullivan can say will change my mind. McCain is the only person that will have his name on the ballot in November who is qualified to be President of the US.

[kim]

Have they quit polling and started flying by the seat of their pants? Incredible strategy, like he doesn't have the nomination yet. Hmmmm.
=======================

[Cecil Turner]

"Serious" Sully? Oxymoron.

[John in Tokyo]

This is a briarpatch scenario. McCain supporters should relish the idea of the left attacking him on this and making a big deal.

Keep pushing this netrooters! What's not to like? There's a measure of payback for the Swiftboaters, exposure of plagarism. exposure of lying and religious hypocracy. Just don't think about the fact that you are reminding the public of McCain's heroic suffering and his touching tales of heroism (he's almost as heroic as John Kerry).

[kim]

The poor deluded fools think this has the sting of 'Christmas in Cambodia' or the secret dude's hat. The left still thinks we lost in Vietnam because we were evil.
========================

[kim]

Yeah, religious hypocrisy via Wright and being tortured into silence by Bill Ayers are themes that are really going to fly for the Obamanauts. They may be targetting McCain's strength, but a sensible campaign would target his weakness. This looks like David believing he could blow Goliath away with the power of speech. He's bringing spitballs to a rock fight.
=======================================

[Captain Hate]

I posed this at Ace of Spades and didn't get an answer so I'll try it here: What is a "Christianist"? I know that Thully has been using it for a while but I refuse to go to that simpleton's site to sift through pages of delusional rants to find out what a word means that isn't in the OED (and pegs the spellchecker here, btw). There is a word "Christianism" that has a secondary definition as being a contemptuous reference to Christianity, which is probably what that snarky idiot is using it for even though there are no examples of it being used since the late 19th century. But there's no inclusion of a word "Christianist", unlike "Episcopalian" for example.

[Paul Zrimsek]

More support for my pet theory that liberals are people who never remember anything: McCain ran against "Christianists" in 2000; it's part of the reason he lost.

Has the cross become the sole property of right-wing evangelicals now? I suppose if Obama could go to TUCC all those years without noticing all the radical hate speech, then Sully could go to Mass all those years without noticing all the crucifixes.

[Cecil Turner]

The poor deluded fools think this has the sting of 'Christmas in Cambodia' or the secret dude's hat.

Yeah, Kerry was a target-rich subject for ridicule. Besides, he had a real issue on the duty front: he skated on two-thirds of his tour using two very dubious Purple Heart awards (first and third). Even so, it took that and his ludicrous Senate Foreign Relations Committee testimony to sink him. And despite undeniable evidence, the myth of him getting a bum rap persists.

Sully thinking his unprovable stupidity about whether or not some guy traced a cross is remotely comparable is just out there. Moreover, it just highlights the fact that, when presented with an opportunity to leave early from a far more onerous situation than Kerry faced, McCain had the moral courage to make the right choice. It certainly isn't helpful.

So far this stuff seems confined to the blogosphere, and I doubt they'll get invested enough in this loser to generate a real backlash . . . but you never know. In any event, Napoleon's famous advice springs to mind: "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."

[Jane]

What is a "Christianist"

I think you should take it to the horse's mouth. Surely Sully permits questions on his blog or accepts email. Then we will all be able to mock him in uniformity. Just don't mention that Obama is opposed to gay marriage.

[Captain Hate]

Sorry Jane but I'm not giving him a blog hit. His whole existence is based on dishonesty, such as claiming to be a conservative, so I wouldn't believe anything he said in response anyway.

[bgates]

Capt, you may be familiar with the term "Islamist", meaning a style of totalitarianism which justifies itself with some superficial aspects of Islam (such as, erm, the Koran). "Christianist" is a term used by people who see parallels between the American government and the Saudi or Iranian governments. It's a big internet, so I can't say for sure that this is the stupidest term you could find.

[DebinNC]

Sullivan was the editor of The New Republic in 1994 when Bill Clinton miraculously found a pile of stones on Omaha Beach and "spontaneously" made them into a cross. I wonder if/how TNR reported that incident?

[Pofarmer]

Sully makes about as much sense as Maureen Dowd. He ought to be doing a style section, or something.

[DebinNC]

Dowd writing of Clinton's "cross moment" at Normandy in 1994: LUN

"The President knew he was supposed to look reflective for the three cameras and dozen photographers who joined him. But after looking soulfully out at the ocean for a moment, he seemed at a loss for what to do next, according to a photographer on the scene, who was scared that Clinton was about to mouth the words "What do I do now?" But then, spying the stones at his feet left by his advance staff to show him where his camera mark was, the President crouched down and began to arrange the stones into a cross. He gathered more stones to finish the cross, and then bent his head as though in silent prayer. ...
The White House aides were ecstatic. "Wasn't it great?" they asked reporters."

[Captain Hate]

Capt, you may be familiar with the term "Islamist", meaning a style of totalitarianism which justifies itself with some superficial aspects of Islam (such as, erm, the Koran).

That's probably a good explanation since Islamist is likewise not in the OED. I realize that the English language is always evolving but I tend to be skeptical of most contemporary manifestations of it. Hyphenated words are one thing, such as Islamo-facism, since both root words retain their meaning. I doubt that Christianist will ever be included in any respectable dictionary because it's based on Sully's unique viewpoint.

[bad]

Their point is that the cross story would have been at least as powerful a tale as the story McCain told.

The real issue is that Sully can't conceive of a candidate with multiple gut-wrenching decisions in his/her background.

[Semanticleo]

Speaking with reporters aboard his bus, the "Straight Talk Express," after his loss in three state primary elections, McCain referred to Baptist evangelists Pat Robertson and the Rev. Jerry Falwell as "evil." At an earlier speech in Virginia Beach he dubbed the same men "agents of intolerance."

McCain supporter and Christian conservative Gary Bauer demanded an immediate apology, calling McCain's remarks "unwarranted, ill-advised and divisive." But Bauer did not withdraw his support, and campaign staff admitted Bauer had seen McCain's Virginia Beach speech before he delivered it on Monday. William Bennett, a McCain supporter, former education secretary for Ronald Reagan and author of the popular Book of Virtues, blasted the senator's remarks, calling them not "appropriate for a man running for president of the United States."

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1571/is_12_16/ai_61487323

That was 2000, and it seems like a lifetime
since he abandoned his "Express" train in 2004 when he tonsil-hockeyed Bush, then proceeded to group-grope the Evangelical power-brokers he once eschewed.

Political expedience is the sole province of Obama, though, right?

Then McCain abandoned his pledge of a "respectful campaign" made, wait, just four months ago.........

"Americans want more respectful campaigns," he added. But the longtime proponent of overhauling campaign finance laws said it's very hard to control the activities of allegedly independent groups that engage in negative campaigning."

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-04-01-mccain-va_N.htm

Oh, yeah. He was talking about the 527's.

He can't distance himself from Corsi, he wants to be Bush's sucksessor.

[bad]

sucksessor.

That explains the "seman" moniker...

[centralcal]

gawd, Semantic, you just underscore everything that is vile about the left. Always the vulgarity in every point you try to and FAIL to make.

[Great Banana]

Cleo,

So, is your point that McCain's stories are lies? That McCain can't have religious beliefs? What is your point?

Nobody denies that McCain had to woo the christian right this time around - rather than antogonizing them as he did in 2000. But, what specific policy positions do you claim he changed? I don't see any real significant changes in social policies that he has taken to pander to the religious right - so what are you claiming?

As far as the "respectful campaign" b.s. - it's the same in each campaign. The dems claim that the GOP is playing dirty and vice versa. Both sides play the same game and claiming otherwise is simply childish. We could argue back and forth all day as to whose is the worse campaign in this regard - there is plenty of fodder for either side. So, crying that somehow McCain's campaign is the "bad" campaign and Obama's is the "good" campaign is not going to persuade anyone of anything.

[Sue]

That explains the "seman" moniker...

Touche. And LOL. ::grin::

[BumperStickerist]

-
John McCain found faith while a prisoner of war.

Andrew Sullivan tinkers with religion.

Sullivan, quite simply, is jealous.

-

[sbw]

TM, thanks for marking the lay of the land. We may see what you mean, but don't expect an "Ah, ha!" of recognition from Sully or his ilk. They can't be wrong. The compartments in their brains are hermetically sealed, like the jars on Funk & Wagnall's porch.

Ellis' book on Jefferson, "American Sphinx", notes Jefferson shared the same trait. And he, thanks to FDR, became the patron saint of the Democratic Party. To give you an example, Jefferson decried partisanship, yet secretly passed information as Secretary of State to the anti-federalists to further their undermining of Washington's government.

Inconsistency? Not in his mind. Inconsistency? Not is Sullivan's mind. Not when the cause is his own.

You cannot tell such people anything. Socrates was wise to only ask questions. An individual intellect is the only tool that can overcome that individual's intellectual myopia, and only if they dare ask themselves sound questions.

[sbw]

[Further note: Jefferson hated Alexander Hamilton and the financial centralization Hamilton was creating during Washington's administration.]

[kim]

Semi, you are whining that McCain is a more nuanced politician than Obama. Son, McCain was considering other points of view when Obama still didn't know what to call himself.
==============================

[Rick Ballard]

Captain Hate,

Christianist as used by Sullivan refers to those Christian followers who have been unable to as yet find the scripture supporting his point of view regarding homosexuality.

You know - the ones who can read.

[Jack is Back!]

Andrew Sullivan is irrelevant. How many votes for McCain do you think he has influenced in any direction? I'd say none against but probably more of the right way dug in stronger than ever. This is not the kind of issue the left wants to bring up thinking of it as their version of the Swift Boat kerfuffle. If anything it keeps religion and faith in the forefront. Religion and faith for Obama equals Wright and Pfleger. While for McCain it equals moral courage under extreme pressure and torture. This is a big lose for them and I encourage them to bring it on with gusto.

[Semanticleo]

"it's the same in each campaign."

Tell Maguire.

[bad]

Sullivan is the result of gay affirmative action. Were he straight, he wouldn't be published.

[Jane]

OT:

Everyone is buzzing about Biden. I can only hope hope hope that's true. I wonder if muzzle sales are up.

[sbw]

Biden would be a whoop! An Al Gore with a bigger ego and bigger mouth.

[Ranger]

I really can't tell if this is panic or payback on the part of the left. Probably a combination of both. They have been aching to successfully "swiftboat" a republican for 4 years, yet at the same time, I think the continued weak poll numbers for Obama have pushed them to "extreem" acts. Only panic would blind them to how bad this argument is from a political perspective.

[Great Banana]

Tell Maguire what?

I doubt very much that Maguire ever claimed that campaigns don't both do negative advertising.

I'm not sure what that has to do with any "point" you were trying to make. You came on to a post about the silliness of the attack on McCain's cross story with some non-sequitor about McCain not running a "respectable" campaign.

I was asking you whether you had a point. Do you? If so, what is it?

[Beth]

Good grief, Sully's so out of his element on this story it's turned into point-and-laugh territory. He's in the prison camp of FAIL.

[K. Bowman]

I am surprised noone has mentioned this.

There should be obvious reasons why John McCain would not want to expose the existence of a possible Christian among the guards at his prison camp when he was released in 1973 which have nothing whatsoever to do with constructing an appealing story for his audience.

Telling the story in 1999 put no one in danger.

[Ranger]

OT:

Everyone is buzzing about Biden. I can only hope hope hope that's true. I wonder if muzzle sales are up.

Posted by: Jane | August 19, 2008 at 10:02 AM

Well, I can say from my personal experience, that Biden may do more damage than good for Obama. A good friend of mine, who is a big time Obama backer would be very troubled to vote for him if Biden were the running mate. This guy is a Bosnian refugee, and Biden's calls to partition Bosnia have been a real sore point for that community. And you'd be surprised how many large Bosnian refugee communities there are in key states.

[kim]

Ranger, it's Fear and Loathing in Denver. God I wish the Gonzo Guy were still alive. What he could have written about Denver, if he had stuck to his schtick, might have been amazing. But I don't blame him for considering the vision troubling.
=================

[M. Simon]

McCain Lied, Obama Died.

[sbw]

[OT]
H/T Instapundit - Amethyst Initiative to rethink the ineffective drinking age. [/OT]

[Jerry Wright]

Andy-pamby should stick to bug-chasing. It's the only thing he's good at.

[M. Simon]

Sullivan is the result of gay affirmative action. Were he straight, he wouldn't be published.

No at one time Sully was good. Very good.

In fact I used to correspond with him back in the day.

He did have an annoying habit of never giving the little people credit for things they wrote. So I forbade him from using any of my e-mails.

[Pofarmer]

Then McCain abandoned his pledge of a "respectful campaign" made, wait, just four months ago.........

How so?

At an earlier speech in Virginia Beach he dubbed the same men "agents of intolerance."

Ya know, there are a lot of intolerant Baptists out there.

[bad]

at one time Sully was good.

He is no longer yet continues to be published. And that is because....???

[A.W.]

I keep saying this, but it isn't getting through...

McCain had a perfectly logical reason not to reveal the story right away: it might endanger the guard.

[glasater]

If BHO wins this election--and I certainly hope he does not--he will become a Catholic and twist the principles of that religion to suit his terrible ends.

[PeterUK]

"Have they quit polling and started flying by the seat of their pants?"

In this case,for quite a long time.

[kim]

sbw, booze is the entry drug to destructive drug use. Sumpin' ain't right out here, these days.
================================

[Pofarmer]

On a related note.

Was Barack Hussein calling Pres. Bush, "John McCains President" respectful? Think that's gonna woo those moderates?

[kim]

OK, I blame Simon.
============

[matt]

I see no contradiction in McCain's denouncement of Robertson and some of the other TV preachers. In fact, I consider it the right thing to do. I have a real hard problem believing that those who cry out for money or power or blood are men (or women) of God. McCain's faith, like the man, is very private and deep.

People seem to have forgotten that there was at one time a much larger class of men and women who valued duty, honor, country, faith, compassion, and "doing the right thing" above all else. McCain's a far from perfect man, but he's far more of a man than any of the other clown shoes out there.

[bad]

I keep saying this, but it isn't getting through...it might endanger the guard.

You are expecting the left to understand the concept of putting someone else's welfare ahead of one's own. Don't hold your breath.

[sbw]

I'm sure that all these are said in good humor, and I can enjoy sophomoric humor along with the best -- or worst -- of them, and, further, I have created bad sophomoric humor myself...

but I do want to distance myself from the religious and sexual denigrating comments that don't address the substance at hand.

Did I tell you the one about ...

[kim]

PoF, the supers have a real problem. They are catching on that the propped up Obama sounds unconvincing appealing to the muddle and too convincing when he lapses into his natural extreme leftism. Hillary can definitely play this game better, and they all know it. I think Obama knows it now, too.
=====================

[sbw]

Kim: sbw, booze is the entry drug to destructive drug use

Kim, yes it is. Which is why the inexperienced need to learn about it and not have it sprung on them at 21. As I wrote to a local college president:

People don a mantle of ethical behavior and practice until it fits.

[M. Simon]

He is no longer yet continues to be published. And that is because....???

Inertia.

Never attribute to malice alone that which can be attributed to malice and stupidity. See Russia in Georgia.

[kim]

I don't think it is being sprung upon the inexperienced at 21. I'd say 13. And why it is a step desirable to take remains mysterious. I'd like to blame climate angst, but I know I'm personalizing the problem way too much to do so. Maybe it is part of it.
========================

[Appalled]

Pofarmer:

Speaking as a moderate, the best way for Obama to proceed is for him to remind everone that a McCain term is going to look an awful lot like a Bush third term.

Sorry. W just isn't popular out there. And he isn't going to get popular in the next few months.

[kim]

I think you are wrong, Appalled. There is already nostalgia for the 'good old days' of Bush. You know, deep in your heart, we've had it pretty good for the last few years. Nothing much like it before, and not likely after, either. It's been a charmed time.
===============================

[M. Simon]

Kim: sbw, booze is the entry drug to destructive drug use

Nope. The NIDA says destructive drug use is due to genetics and environmental factors.

You guys need to keep up with the latest research. Drug use does not cause drug use. Gawd. Sometimes I think the right is just as willfully ignorant as the left.

Fortunately I no longer believe that any faction brings real understanding or willingness to change policy based on new facts to the table. Me? For the most part the right has a better set of prejudices.

[sbw]

Kim, when I lived in the Netherlands, wine or beer could be part of a meal at 16. It was ordinary, but not regular. Forbidden fruit is never ordinary, or managed as such.

[M. Simon]

BTW the "gateway theory" of drug use was discredited years ago. Some people are lost in a time warp.

[kim]

Simon, you are confusing 'entry' with 'cause'. And I use 'gateway' for lack of a better one, I understand its limitations; we are illustrating one. What's a better word for the phenomenon? That is, if we are even describing the same thing.
===============================

[bad]

Never attribute to malice..

Malice is not what I had in mind. It's more along the lines of the industry treating him as someone "special" rather than on the merits. Kinda like Maureen Dowd..

[M. Simon]

OK, I blame Simon.
============

Blame accepted.

[M. Simon]

OK, I blame Simon.
============

Blame accepted.

[Great Banana]

Speaking as a moderate, the best way for Obama to proceed is for him to remind everone that a McCain term is going to look an awful lot like a Bush third term.

I think this fails because it means that Obama runs his campaign against Bush while McCain runs his campaign against Obama.

And, it does not work into Obama's alleged strengths of being a new kind of candidate for the future, as he is simply running against the past instead of on any kind of positive platform.

At the end of the day, Bush is unpopular, but I bet that in the seclusion of the voting booth a lot of people would pull the lever for Bush over Obama, b/c people aren't willing to risk everything on an unproven candidate. When the fact that Bush is not on the ballot is entered into the equation, it only increases that feeling for McCain over Obama.

So, I don't think simply running against Bush will work. Obama needs to define himself and that is the problem they are facing - as he comes into focus for the electorate, a lot of people aren't so sure they like what they see (if the polls are any indication).

That can certainly change, and Obama may yet successfully repackage himself, but, again, I don't think running against Bush will work to any real advantage.

[Ranger]

Speaking as a moderate, the best way for Obama to proceed is for him to remind everone that a McCain term is going to look an awful lot like a Bush third term.

Sorry. W just isn't popular out there. And he isn't going to get popular in the next few months.

Posted by: Appalled | August 19, 2008 at 10:36 AM

The problem for Obama in following this line is that it is essentially negative: he is simply saying don't vote for the other guy. There is a certain amount of that in any given campaign, but Obama's entire "concept" was 'vote for me and I will bring change' and 'no more politics as usual.' Focusing too much on a 'don't vote for him because...' sounds like politics as usual to people. It diminishes the Obama "brand." Obama has nobody to blame but himself for this by the way (well, maybe except for Axelrod).

[kim]

We aren't on the same page. I'm talking about binge drinking as a gateway to the acceptance of destructive behaviour, via drugs et al.
====================================

[M. Simon]

Simon, you are confusing 'entry' with 'cause'. And I use 'gateway' for lack of a better one, I understand its limitations; we are illustrating one. What's a better word for the phenomenon? That is, if we are even describing the same thing.

The gate way to chronic aspirin use is migraines.

That help?

[kim]

OK, Simon, it's your problem, now fix it. Why not write him again and give him permission to use your stuff? Sully changed, he can change back. Be as persuasive as we know you can be. Heh, tell him the globe is cooling for starters; he'll eventually come around.
====================

[Rick Ballard]

Kim,

I think he's beyond the muddle now. The disaffection among the blue collars is growing rather than shrinking and that segment is far more important than the muddle.

The progs attachment to unions and Obama's promise to support the end of the secret ballot for labor elections are clear examples of how profoundly stupid intellectuals can be - and without really trying.

Both Ford and GM are standing on the threshold of bankruptcy with one foot lifted as they lean forward to cross it. It's not as if blue collars don't understand the wholly false promises made by the unions, it's that they level headedly reject utopian idiocy, having seen the destruction of entire industries which it engenders.

They really won't support an intellectual airhead trying desperately to keep his nose held firmly aloft - an absolute impossibility, considering the location of his head.

[kim]

You know I believe the migraineur is more intimately in touch with his body than the ordinary run of souls.
==============================

[Captain Hate]

Re changing the drinking age: I don't trust college and university presidents and chancellors to understand anything other than how to separate well-intentioned people from their money in support of an increasingly mediocre product. To blame binge drinking on a single factor is absurd. The fact is that mandating a legal drinking age is a highly political decision which currently stands at 21 because the MADD people were extremely effective at publicizing tragedies brought on by immature individuals drinking and driving. Frankly I find them more credible than the Amethyst Initiative. I consider dead and paralyzed people more important than some faddish malady that inconveniences the denizens of ivory towers. Unless they're willing to make themselves personally responsible for the liability of the actions of their students 18-20 while intoxicated. Not holding my breath on that...

[kim]

Ranger and Rick, winning the primaries was the Peter Principle in action. Highly competent at that, a disaster one pay grade up.

The supers are circling. Just waiting for the Pumas to leave the kill.
===============================

[M. Simon]

kim,

The ages from 15 to 25 are times of high anxiety. There is your gateway. There is your cause. If there was no alcohol in the environment people would be looking for the appropriate plants.

I swan. Once you have the wrong theory more wrong theories have to be found to prop them up.

The gateway to chronic drug use is a pain in the brain.

[bgates]

Sullivan is the result of gay affirmative action. Were he straight, he wouldn't be published.
Sure. I can't imagine a straight person who engaged in irrational anti-Republican invective being able to find work in the media. It must be the work of the Jews gays.

Rick, maybe you could point us to the parable where Jesus condemns same-sex marriage?

[Annoying Old Guy]

He is no longer yet continues to be published. And that is because....???

Inertia. Sullivan would hardly be the first person kept on long past his prime because no one was willing to be the first to speak up about his loss of talent. Moreover, he writes bad things about President Bush and as incoherent as he is at it, he's still better than a number of others out there who have that as their sole justification for publication. Who's more rage filled and incoherent, Sullivan or Olberman?

[Jane]

This guy is a Bosnian refugee, and Biden's calls to partition Bosnia

Gee - he also called to partition Iraq. He's returning from Georgia - can a call for a partition be far behind?

Re: Obama referring to Bush as "John McCain's president" well that's gonna be a problem on the patriotism front. It is completely and utterly offensive. He's starting to sound like Kos.

[kim]

But MADD hasn't worked as hoped, just as did not Prohibition. Binging is troublesome, and I don't think it's the escape, it's the rapidity. But what do I know, I gave that up long ago.
=================================

[jimmyk]

the best way for Obama to proceed is for him to remind everone that a McCain term is going to look an awful lot like a Bush third term.

As Lincoln (perhaps) put it: If you call a tail a leg, how many legs does a dog have? (Answer: Four. Just saying it doesn't make it so.) Obama can say that all he wants, but that doesn't make it so, and that doesn't help anyone take him more seriously.

Obama wants to run against Bush rather than McCain. He's welcome to that strategy, but it doesn't strike me as very effective. Or nuanced. It looks weak--as if to say, I can't come up with substantive criticisms of my opponent, so I'll just label him. Heck, why stop at "Bush" or "McSame"? Why not "McHitler"? Probably equally effective.

[bad]

Given the open aspect to the upcoming vote in Denver, there are some bound to be some fascinating conversations taking place. Please, please, please let them be via email and texting, and they get released ala Hillary's internal memos.

[kim]

Oh, c'mon, we all know it was Paul.
===========================

[glasater]

Sorry. W just isn't popular out there. And he isn't going to get popular in the next few months.

Posted by: Appalled | August 19, 2008 at 10:36 AM

W's only raised very close to one billion bucks for his campaigns and the R's over the past eight years.
That's real unpopular I guess:-)

[kim]

Simon, I submit to your much greater awareness of the problem, but I don't think you've got it all figured out. It's even more complex than climate regulation.
==============================

[kim]

It's another leftist delusion that Bush is unpopular. How can he be popular, no one I know likes him.
==============================

[M. Simon]

Of course once you start with epicycles you need more and more of them to explain everything.

Clue here. People seek to avoid pain. When in pain they seek out relief. The gateway to drug use is biology. It ain't alcohol, tobacco, pot, or mother's milk.

Why do people take pain relievers when they have a broken leg? Because doctors give it to them? Then why are there unused pain relievers in the medicine chest?

[Semanticleo]

"we've had it pretty good for the last few years. Nothing much like it before, and not likely after, either. It's been a charmed time."

Kim;

Yeah. The Econ pundits are attempting more small investor hypnosis claiming that $80 barrel price is in the offing.

Get ready for some real good times to reminisce over.

Or get your 30 day food and water stores rotated. Good times ahead.

[M. Simon]

kim,

Climate change only gets complicated when you have to add in all kinds of epicycles to explain pieces that don't fit. The essence is simple: CO2 follows warming. It is caused by gas evolution from the oceans. CO2 Added to the environment adds 1 C to the earth's temp for every doubling (up to a point). Now there are a lot of details when you get intoi it but that is the essence.

Drug use is even simpler: people take drugs to relieve pain, if the pain is chronic the drug use is chronic. Pain can be embedded in the amygdala. The length of time it lasts is based on genetics and the severity of the trauma.

Any questions?

[kim]

We are in agreement, Semi, if McCain doesn't win. There will be a worldwide panic at the failure of American leadership if Obama wins.

The bit about Bush's third term is apt; it's just not a winner for Obama.
========================================

[sbw]

M.Simon: The gateway to chronic drug use is a pain in the brain.

Yes. We teach everything in schools except what needs to be taught: How to deal with the simple daily problems of living.

Learning about that, and how to make the lessons accessible, has been my hobby for the last 28 years. Interestingly, the great minds in history have turned their intellect to the simple daily problems of living.

[kim]

I'll use a lovely phrase I invented for Joe Romm, a crystalline celebration of certainty. Well, I gotta rock.
==========================

[kim]

Gardening, sbw, yeah, that's the ticket.
========================

[M. Simon]

BTW why is adolescence so anxiety prone? It is nature's way of encouraging mating.

Sex produces the body's own heroin (endorphins) relieving the anxiety. Since we discourage early mating there is a spike of drug/alcohol use in adolescence.

Once you have the right theory things get simpler.

[bad]

I concede!!! Sully sucks but continues to be published for no particular reason.

[Semanticleo]

"There will be a worldwide panic at the failure of American leadership if Obama wins."

Are you trying convince someone other than yourself?

The occupant in the WH (no matter who that may be) will have little power over future events.

Thanks, in great measure, to you know who.

[kim]

OK, Simon, sex in the garden. Let's go with that one.
================================

[bad]

Insty has linked to this thread.

[kim]

I'm beginning to worry about you, Semi. Cheer up, you've survived the worst Bush could throw at you, what's a mere four years of mild-mannered John McCain going to do? It's the eight of Romney you gotta worry about. So, relax and enjoy.
==============================