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August 14, 2008

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bgates

According to the new forecast, by 2050, the number of Hispanic people will nearly triple
Who does the Census Bureau like in the AL West that year?

GMax

I think if I were Asian I would consider not reporting that given that my kids would get negative preferences at many universities as they consider them to be undesirable due to overrepresentation.

And today's Hispanics in the country will be grandparents for the most part 34 + years from now. An 18 year old will be 52 then. Do you think the third generation having been born in American to American parents and schooled in America will act more like disaffected minorities or more like the majority? Given my anecdotal observations up close and personal, I would say that family values and a strong work ethic will likely survive in a society which will look much like today in many ways.

cathyf

I'm 1/16th Cherokee, and my dad always muses about filing suit to retrieve the gold leaf on the Georgia state capitol dome.

From the point of view of my Cherokee ancestors, we've been a "majority immigrant" nation for quite some time!

Fred  Beloit

The government has certainly made things confusing; it's what they do. The invention of the Hispanic race is a case in point. Garcia, the great Spanish golfer, must be surprised to learn he is not white.

bgates

Do you think the third generation having been born in American to American parents and schooled in America will act more like disaffected minorities or more like the majority?
Ask Michelle Obama.
I would say that family values and a strong work ethic will likely survive
Statistics from the Education Department suggest cause for more concern than that; the Hispanic high school dropout rate is nearly four times the rate for white students, and more than twice the rate for black, though the trend lines for all three are good. 22% of Hispanics age 16-24 are "status dropouts" (not in school, no diploma nor GED).

bad

The "white" and "hispanic" labels are interesting. Our backdoor neighbors are Hispanic which we discovered only after they offered to teach our very young chidren a few words in Spanish in order to later have proper accents when learning Spanish in school. They have fairer skin than any of our family of Irish, Scottish, Swiss, Scandinavian, English descent.

bgates

The "white" and "hispanic" labels are interesting
It is a pretty stupid way to group people. "Indigenous to areas colonized by the Spanish, except for the Seminoles" seems to be what it works out to.

cathyf

For awhile it was "hispanic surname". I've got lots of 1/2-Italian and 1/2-Mexican relatives. There is a certain amount of pissed-off-ness over the fact that those with the "hispanic" name get affirmative action not available to their cousins with the "Italian" surnames.

The point is that identity politics collapses in short order with wholesale intermarriage. Because when your "minority" status can't be detected simply by looking at you, and requires some 10-minute boring monologue to explain, who cares?

GMax

Cubans, Spaniards, Phillipinos and Mexicans have about as much in common for grouping purposes as me and George Clooney. Only I am smarter he might be better looking to some of you ( fortunately Ms Gmax does not share that opinion!).

Rick Ballard

"the Hispanic high school dropout rate is nearly four times the rate for white students"

It might be. It might also reflect (in small part) some parents sending their kids to relatives out of country when they reach puberty. AFAICT, from NCHS birth numbers and NCES enrollment numbers, between 10% and 15% of kids born as Hispanics never make it to school. In the US.

I don't believe that Census has a handle on the reverse flow at all. We'll see in 2012.

bgates

For those who enjoy hyperventilating about racism, Yahoo is running this story on their front page - "Whites a minority by 2042 ... the reason", next to a photo of one black guy and four white women (and a couple of other people who are almost out of frame).

If the Obama/Paris ad was racist, this photo looks like DW Griffith did the artwork for "Mandingo 2".

trentk269

It will be very interesting to see the attitudes and behavior of disenfranchised whites at that time, especially their voting patterns. I think that it goes without saying that America's liberal bastions-academia, media, and law, will be unable to restrain themselves from constantly reminding the whites of 2042 that they are in the minority.

Neo

What's with this race thing ?

Neo

Has anybody been to an engineering graduate school lately ?

It's 40% Asian, 40% Indian, 10% white and Hispanic, 5% black & 5% other.

Mark

Just out of curiousity, what catagory is filled in when they count the kids of a Irish/German/Luxembourg, man and Brazilian/Japanese woman marrying a kid from French/American Black woman and and Filipino/Vietnamese man, who have kids? Or by 2042, will it be more mixed than that?

cathyf

Well, Mark, speaking as someone who does genealogy, there is this particular glazed over look of boredom that people get when you try to explain about your ancestors. Even the interesting ones -- my grandmother's great-grandmother's grandfather was the brother of Basil Hayden, who is the Old Grandad of Old Grandad whiskey. Basil was the founder of the Maryland-to-Kentucky migration that started in 1886. In 1885 he went to Kentucky to check out the land and plan the trip. He came home to his wife and 5 children to find his wife pregnant with someone else's child. They moved to Kentucky and had 6 more children.

bgates

Mark, judging from Halle Berry, Tiger Woods, the Ford family in Tennessee, Jason Kidd, and Barack Obama, the answer is, "black" - until the child objects, if ever.

DrJ

"black" - until the child objects

The irony is that this is the old racial "one-drop" test. Now that is counted as a good thing, though.

This whole "race" thing is just silly these days. My step-daughter is Irish/English/German (50%) and Cuban (50%). Her daughter mixes in a bit more Irish. Her husband is Japanese/English. So she (the GD) is about 10% or 20% black. Should she count for AA?

Bricas

"Do-able? Sure - language and a culture of assimilation rather than separation will be key."

Not gonna happen. In Nevada today, there's a big population of 5th-generation Chicanos, even some whose presence in the USA precedes the Mexico-American War that took the region from Mexico. Yet their levels of crime and drug-running are worse than 1st- and 2nd-generation. Somehow, when someone's going around committing crimes against society, attacking people and vandalizing property, I couldn't care less whether he speaks Ivy League-educated English or pidgin-- and those numbers get worse with the generations, not better.

Look, President James K. Polk opened a Pandora's Box 150 years ago when he invaded Mexico to take that region from the Mexicans. So long as the Chicano/Latino people were a minority, no big deal. Even though the cost of this was mass displacement and often forcible expulsion of Latinos already there... But with those same dispossessed peoples now becoming a majority again, of course they're going to stand up for themselves against "Anglo imperialism."

That's what politics is about-- there's protection in numbers and solidarity, and Latinos today are simply standing up for their own in a region with a nasty history.

It's easy to pretend that things will be okey-dokey so long as we have a "common culture" in the region, but any notion of a common culture these days is a joke. It's never gonna happen. Even US-born whites these days from different regions of the country, are permanently at each other's throats. And Blacks, Latinos, native Americans and Asians all have their own interests, with affirmative action and thousands of government-funded assets to fight over. This is what's split apart dozens of countries in the past. The same thing will happen to us in the USA, probably by 2035 or earlier.

Bricas

"Do-able? Sure - language and a culture of assimilation rather than separation will be key."

Not gonna happen. In Nevada today, there's a big population of 5th-generation Chicanos, even some whose presence in the USA precedes the Mexico-American War that took the region from Mexico. Yet their levels of crime and drug-running are worse than 1st- and 2nd-generation. Somehow, when someone's going around committing crimes against society, attacking people and vandalizing property, I couldn't care less whether he speaks Ivy League-educated English or pidgin-- and those numbers get worse with the generations, not better.

Look, President James K. Polk opened a Pandora's Box 150 years ago when he invaded Mexico to take that region from the Mexicans. So long as the Chicano/Latino people were a minority, no big deal. Even though the cost of this was mass displacement and often forcible expulsion of Latinos already there... But with those same dispossessed peoples now becoming a majority again, of course they're going to stand up for themselves against "Anglo imperialism."

That's what politics is about-- there's protection in numbers and solidarity, and Latinos today are simply standing up for their own in a region with a nasty history.

It's easy to pretend that things will be okey-dokey so long as we have a "common culture" in the region, but any notion of a common culture these days is a joke. It's never gonna happen. Even US-born whites these days from different regions of the country, are permanently at each other's throats. And Blacks, Latinos, native Americans and Asians all have their own interests, with affirmative action and thousands of government-funded assets to fight over. This is what's split apart dozens of countries in the past. The same thing will happen to us in the USA, probably by 2035 or earlier.

Bricas

"The point is that identity politics collapses in short order with wholesale intermarriage. "

Except that it doesn't. Remember, close to 1/3 of African-Americans today have white ancestors, IOW they're already intermarried, but they are regarded as distinctly African-American. If whites marry Blacks or Latinos, the kids are considered Black or Latino, not white, and eligible for affirmative action and other programs.

I'm not knocking this per se, there may be good reasons for race-based affirmative action (preventing riots, providing some semblance of societal unity). But this poses increasing burdens on the whites already here.

Furthermore, as whites push forward to minority status, the capacity for intermarriage to make even a tiny dent in ethnic blocs diminishes to nothing. The numbers become too large, and people inevitably sort into groups to fight for political gain.

Halle Berry for example, declared herself a black actress when she got her Oscar-- despite the fact that she was raised by a white mother, and her black father beat her mother and abandoned her. Same with Jason Kidd. The products of the small number of interracial marriages just sort themselves the same way kids of monoracial marriages do. That's just how it works, and it'll hit us just as it has every other nation.

kim

Whoa, cf, they knew how to forget and beget back then, huh?
=========================================

Sarah

I noted with interest that my great-grandfather, who had to register for the "too old to fight" drafts for both WWI AND WWII, went from being "Jewish" in 1918 to "White" in 1944. Without the ethnic background changing all that much (a steady mix of Eastern European Jews, Irish Catholics, and German/English/Scottish protestants), in three generations my family has gone from despised, "dirty" immigrants (who HAVE TOO MANY CHILDREN!!!) to "white."

I will giggle every time I notice kids whose grandparents moved here from Cuba or whatever being called "white" in 2042.

J.R.

ALLCON<
Maybe somebody will just be an "Native born American" and blow the census bureaus mind.
I list minority all the time cause I am a WASP and work for a living.
J.R.

Eric Blair

In purely racial terms, this makes little sense, as most "Hispanics" really are "white" or somepart American Indian.

@J.R.: I always list myself as "Native American" whenever the chance is given. I was born here. If that doesn't make me a native, I don't know what is. Whenever somebody asks 'what race'? I alway write in "Human". One has to do something to screw up their statistics.

Bandit

I always check other - Siberian Husky

roux

For the last few years when asked on a questionnaire for race I check "Other" and write in "human".

I hope it pisses someone off.

johnmc

Bricas,

So I have to ask, when the minority is the majority in a region or sector and they get mad and riots pop out why is it that they burn down their own neighboorhoods? You would think they would jump in the car and burn down West Hollywood not Watts. 'The Man' doesn't live in Watts.

Socially dysfunctional. But its a pattern that has been repeated many times.

GW Crawford

So when whites become a minority can we hop on the 'too stupid to get a job on their own merit' bandwagon too?

Or will we be still held to the higher standard we have grown up with?

Whitehall

So long as there is no official category marked "Aryan"!

Michael

Like kathyf, I have Cherokee ancestry but it is more like 1/64th or 1/128th. My niece gets to take that mix and include being 1/2 Puerto Rican (don't ask me what that includes).

Frankly, I would be perfectly happy to live in a "post-racial" society where the government didn't try and classify people in a way that reminds me of a certain European country in the 1930s/40s.

clarice

cathy, read 1421, a new book that argues the Chinese were here first. If my memory does not fail me I recall the author noting that several AmInd tribes are descendents of Chinese who settled here, and I recall the Cherokees were one of those tribes.(Tough break, kid..don't even think about Berkeley.)

David Ross

cathyf 8/14 10:15- boredom? Really? This stuff fascinates me and I daresay everyone else who bothers to comment in this thread. I suppose YMMV

David Ross

1421 is a fraud, clarice. Check out 1421exposed dot com.

Richard

Well, I'd like to be around and lucid enough to see if this will be true, but I probably won't be. If I'm still around, I'll be in my 90's.

Nevertheless, the scientific basis for making such a prediction ranks only slightly above astrology. I'm sure the weasel words "If current trends continue..." is buried somewhere in this report. But, current trends never continue. Birth rates are cyclical. Wars, recessions, weather, and many other factors effect the birth rate. In the late 40's, the demographers considered 1946-47 to be a blip and that the birthrate would decline back down to the low levels of the Depression years. Instead, we got the baby boom. In the baby boom peak year of 1958, demographers predicted that the birth rate would never decline, which it promptly did. As for immigration, it is not commonly noted but one third of all the immigrants from Europe in the later part of the 1800's went back to Europe. It should be noted that the high birthrates in Mexico that fueled a lot of the immigration to the United States have subsided.

It might happen, but it probably won't.

11B40

Greetings:

Despite my Irish heritage on both sides of my family, I have decided to go with the Public Broadcasting System's programs assertion that human beings all started off in Africa, ergo, I must be an African-American.

Fat Man

The Rainbow coalition will rule!

Carol Herman

FROM CAROL HERMAN:

Growing numbers is NOT a plus!

For the longest time, white men with property brought forth our Declaration of Independence.

Look at this another way, and you'll see a SMALL MINORITY OF MEN brought forth independence.

I shall never forget Winston Churchill's words: As he pointed to the British Isle. And, said while this was just a small sized place on the globe; it had implications all around.

In large numbers, when you check history, what you'd see are the hands of a few; be it church and/or state, in control. And, workers were just peasants. Whose labors not only came cheap; they came for free.

It took the Black Plague, and the loss of humans to bring about a new recognition; that the labor pool on the bottom counted; when there were less people around to do the dirty work. And, till.

As to future projections that just go up, need I remind you of wealth, itself? Doesn't always rise. Hits bumps. And, bursting bubbles.

The people who lead, however, are aware of organizational skills.

bad

Carol Herman

Does this mean you will be voting for the community organizer?

x5

If hispanics are being regarded as a distinct race, then maybe government can start listing whites as a distinct race again instead of as "non-hispanic whites". I doubt the government would ever have categories such as "non-white blacks" or "non-white hispanics" etc...

The prediction of a white minority America has been made for quite a while now. If any other race besides whites were projected to remain stagnant or decline over the next forty years, it would be a cause of concern instead of celebration.

Barbara

Hey Sarah,
You don't have to wait till 2042 to "giggle" at Cuban kids being "called" white, since most Cubans are descended from either slaves (and therefore Black) or Spaniards ( and therefore actually, not just "called", White). Although actual Cubans from Cuba will tell you they are Cuban and will be completely confused that it matters what color they are. The problem with race in this country is that everybody is so hung up about it, and the hang ups are perpetuated by ignorance. If I had a nickel for everytime someone told me I didn't look "hispanic" or Cuban I'd have a LOT of nickels. How do you "look" hispanic? By looking Mexican, which is what Anglos have decided Hispanics look like? They'd be called Native Americans if anyone paid attention in history class. Except for the Mexicans descended from Spaniards, which everyone seems to forget is in Europe and is as full of actual white people as the rest of Europe. Similarly lumping "Asians" together is just plain ignorant. Huge swathes of the globe do not fit neatly into little racial boxes, and as long as we obsess over sticking people in those little boxes we will obsess over what those boxes are called.

bgates

Huge swathes of the globe do not fit neatly into little racial boxes
With the apparent exception of "Anglos", which I take from the context to mean "descendants of Europeans, living in the United States".

Bruce Lagasse

Strictly speaking, there are no "native Americans." At best, the first inhabitants of North America would be characterized as Siberian-Americans. The only people who could be called "native" would be the early inhabitants of the Olduvai Gorge; everybody else on the planet is an immigrant or a descendant of immigrants.

Donna B.

The ancestry of my granddaughter is fun to consider in this debate: Dutch, English, Scots, Irish, Choctaw, Hispanic, German, French, Cherokee, Chinese, Filipino... there may be more considering I'm not completely familiar with her father's genealogy.

Race doesn't matter at all. Cultures do, but it's important to remember that most cultures have lots in common, like some kind of bread-wrapped meat in their cuisine.

Roger Godby

I live in Japan. It's interesting living in a monoculture (yes, there are a few Ainu tucked away up in Hokkaido and maybe another ethnic group or two of wholly insignificant numbers also up there). Non-East-Asians really stand out but are generally in the minority thus interesting, not threatening; however, when numbers grow, such as with pockets of Brazilian-Japanese who bring spouses and dependents who aren't Japanese in appearance, they become threatening.

That said, I've had Japanese in very rural areas gawk at me, in wonder not out of hate or fear. When entering a public hot spring, it usually doesn't take long for all the other bathers, Japanese, to get out. Coincidental, maybe. Depends on the area.

Homogeneity has its benefits, not the least being a lack of widespread anger over differences. As for immigrants' input, Japanese have proved plenty capable of producing and inventing all manner of things without (much) foreign input. It is odd (and a bit exciting) to return to the US after a few years and watch all the shapes, sizes, and colors of people.

Then again, Japanese no longer have children yet live forever, their government continues to rack up massive debts, and the economy here has been dragging along for over a decade because red tape inhibits the necessary "creative destruction" growth requires.

I'm white, but I usually mark "Native American," because that's where I was born. Sometimes I mark African-American, because we US citizens all are, anthropologically.

Chester White


What a damn abomination this affirmative action business is and will continue to be.

I can't imagine a more divisive, unworkable, and un-American set of policies.

My 9 y.o. extremely white son once put himself down as "African-American" on a school form, because, he said, "They taught us that humans originated in Africa." Sounds good to me.

BR

Hee, here's the real thing: a white born in Africa, who then becomes a US citizen, would technically be an African-American. (My husband once joked to an unbelieving American: "Oh, she's an albino." :)

Sam

I'm in favor of anything that produces profound political cleavages.

sophy

I do not know how to use the flyff gold ; my friend tells me how to use.

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