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September 20, 2008

Comments

PeterUK

Well perhaps the Sarah Palin moose hunting glasses.

kim

Yes, the St. Laurent is not the Gaspe Peninsula. But Bristlecones aren't temperature dependent either.

McCain has an election to win against a snake and his cheering section. He can save the economy later.

Simon, you know TCO was nine years in Rickover's Navy, and 15 in the Reserve, right?

OK, c, running for cover. Meow.
================

M. Simon

Climate Scam, Gore, Hansen, Lehman

What seems very suspicious is that so far every company that has gone into the carbon scam business to bail itself out of financial troubles has gone belly up. Coincidence or enemy action?

kim

Pete, have you seen Iain Stewart's BBC special with the lorry running all over London with the Hockey Stick on a huge billboard? That shot up the ladder is hilarious. One can look at the whole production as parody, but I'm sure it wasn't meant that way.
===================================

M. Simon

kim,

Not every nuke has their head screwed on right. Long time ago there was one at LGF who hated Jews. Then he found out I was a Jew and a nuke and he had to admit that perhaps I was worth an exception.

TCO seems like a bright enough fellow. However, he seems like the sort who are unable to convince without a Model 1911 in their hands.

So TCO are the assets the government is buying overvalued or undervalued? Seems like a profit opportunity either way. A hedge against inflation if nothing else.

PeterUK

M Simon,
No,where was it?

M. Simon

Kim,

I watched the first 2/3s and got tired of it.

You are telling me it wasn't a parody?

I couldn't think of a better way to discredit the idea. Kind of like the way Bill Clinton is working for Obama.

M. Simon

Sink the Tirpitz.

Brit grit, wit, and reserve. All on display.

TCO

Kim:

Maybe the bcps are temp controlled and maybe they aren't. But you can't prove your case (disprove your opponent's case), by looking at LOWER treeline samples (or any non-temp limited area) and then just come back and say the species is not temp controlled as an excuse for doing so. See...it's circular logic, if you do so.

M. Simon:

The government is generally injecting funds in a way that the market would not do so, so the assets are being overvalued. Sure, there's some chance that Paulson is a mega speculator or will get lucky. But I'll take the market as my "Bayesian bet" versus a politician. Also, there are substantial reasons of public choice theory/agency effects as well as the entire history of nationalized industries to beleive that the assets now controlled by the government will NOT be managed for the most beneficial financial effect, but rather in ways that are beneficial politically but cost money.

TCO

Oh. And I'd prefer to have my $700 billion than win the election. Let's get this thing over. Let all the places that can't cover trades go tits up. Counterparties (many of which are liberal New Yorkers btw) will go tits up. Couldn't happen to better people.

TCO

Oh...and the demonization of the shorts is the funniest thing. These guys are not "yelling fire in a crowded theater", they're yelling "the emperor is naked". Blows me away to watch supposed free market financiers with their little blame the shorts game. The shorts have been proved RIGHT, biatchez!

PeterUK

You have to remember that the BBC is the Pravda of the liberal left.The BBC is also the EU's bitch, the EU is afire with with Emission Trading Schemes,tilting at windmills and returning to BC living standards.

kim

Pete, my Daddy told me the story of the little ships against the Graf Spee many years ago.
=====================================

M. Simon

TCO,

You assume markets are at all times rational. When in fact the best you can say is that they are at most times rational.

Irrational exuberance or pessimism destroys real value.

To allow a cascading failure to destroy the whole machine would seem to be to violate basic good design principles. Thus the design in of safety factors which add cost to the design.

When the relief valve blows perfectly good energy is wasted. Would a boiler explosion be a better option?

TCO

a. no I don't. Don't put words in my mouth.

b. Just because they are irrational, there is NO reason to think that a government official will outguess them and a lot of reasons to think they will do worse.

PLUS this is a god damned wealth transfer from savers to speculators. From senior debt owners to subordinated. Etc.

Charlie (Colorado)

The government is generally injecting funds in a way that the market would not do so, so the assets are being overvalued.

This really isn't true. There's a long discussion of it in this and the grading papers thread, but the short version is really simple: in the absence of good information about the underlying assets, and the presence of panic, we can be very certain these securities are very much undervalued compared to their actual assets. What's more, we know (in a statistical sense) that the real value is somewhere in (.9, 1.0) times the face value. It's just we don't know which individual instruments are worth what; until that sorts out, people in a risk-averse state of mind treat them all as if they're worth zero.

Charlie (Colorado)

a. no I don't. Don't put words in my mouth.

Yes you do, or at least that's a proper inference from what you're saying.

M. Simon

So TCO,

You are saying that because good money was paid to raise the temperature of the water in the boiler that relief valves are a bad idea because they waste that value and that it is better for the boiler to explode than to have any energy wasters in the system?

Good thing you don't design power plants.

Charlie (Colorado)

What's more, we know (in a statistical sense) that the real value is somewhere in (.9, 1.0) times the face value. It's just we don't know which individual instruments are worth what; until that sorts out, people in a risk-averse state of mind treat them all as if they're worth zero.

In fact --- it just struck me --- the effect of this government agency buying up he hard-to-value stuff is precisely that it reduces the variance of the actual value of these securities versus the face value, because the "sample" is larger. (In fact, the sample proportion will approach 1.) So this maneuver as we understand it now will both improve our information about the balance sheets of these firms, and it will improve our understanding of the distribution of the value of the massed MSEs and CDSs.

TCO

Charlie, there's a fundamental flaw in your thinking. If it wer correct, than you would have an arbitrage opportunity (as an individual) in buying said instruments.

TCO

M-ganger: You keep putting MORE words in my mouth. Have fun deabting that strawman!

Charlie (Colorado)

Charlie, there's a fundamental flaw in your thinking. If it wer correct, than you would have an arbitrage opportunity (as an individual) in buying said instruments.

No, that's not a flaw, that means you've grasped the argument. That would be exactly my conclusion. If I had $700 billion in my checking account, I would buy them all.

The problem is that if you don't have that size checkbook, you have to buy a smaller subset, a smaller sample. Because the sample is smaller, the variance is greater; in fact, when we get down to a single MSE, that variance could, hypothetically, set the value anywhere from $0 to the face value of the security. That's why the market for these things collapsed: no one knows how to value an individual one. But all of them together have a value with a relatively narrow confidence interval.

M. Simon

OK TCO,

What would you do to prevent a boiler explosion?

Or if you prefer crack propagation?

How would you keep the failure localized?

M. Simon

No, that's not a flaw, that means you've grasped the argument. That would be exactly my conclusion. If I had $700 billion in my checking account, I would buy them all.

In fact Charlie and I both have made this argument. Charlie with better support. Me by just indicating the possibility.

TCO

I'm tired of defending the free market against interventionists. Have fun with Barry. The base is going on strike.

TCO

Charlie, there are trillions of dollars of derivatives in existence. Yet you think the market incapable of valueing those junky bonds. How about this for a cluefest mother fucker. The market is being rationale with it's view that they are not worth much (irrespective of "runs"). And the government which has been proved wrong several times with comments on soundness, etc. is just trying to prevent water from reaching a level.

TCO

I'm out. Have fun.

Charlie (Colorado)

How about this for a cluefest mother fucker.

You know, the mathematics of your argument here seem a touch weak.

Look, TCO, I know you were in the Navy, so I'll cut you a little slack. Once.

I'm out. Have fun.

How often have we heard that, to no avail?

PeterUK

Where on earth does the idea that there is a "free market" come from? There is politically motivated intervention,sovereign wealth funds,hedge funds run by those with ulterior motives as well as downright spivvery.

But how about a little analysis on the knock on effect of letting AIG go down? So far there hasn't been any.

Charlie (Colorado)

spivvery

What?

PeterUK

Spiv

bad

spivvery

awesome word.

Charlie (Colorado)

Me:

No, that's not a flaw, that means you've grasped the argument. That would be exactly my conclusion. If I had $700 billion in my checking account, I would buy them all.

Bloomberg News:

``When there are market dislocations, we're always going to take advantage of them,'' Buffett said during the company's annual meeting in May. ``Berkshire will make some extra money out of this.''

M. Simon

In carney talk - a slum seller or maybe a heat merchant.

Carney Slang also Brit Circus Slang and other good stuff.

M. Simon

The Belles of St. Trinians.

PeterUK

"The Belles of St. Trinians." Lovely girls,a bit like JOM.

BTW "Flash Harry" the character in the movie gave his name to the whole genus of dodgy dealers,especially used car salesmen.

M. Simon

PeterUK,

Flash Harry was definitely a fav.

clarice

The Belles of St Trinians was one of the first foreign films I'd ever seen . I traveled across town to see it at an "art theater" and adored it. Absolutely adored it.

HeavyJ

"Hyper-partisan" indeed.

Those dirty liberals and their reluctance to hand Bush another no strings attached $1000000000.

Sometime their hatred for America is palpable.

PeterUK

The JOM Babes Christmas Calendar or St Trinians ?

PeterUK

"Those dirty liberals and their reluctance to hand Bush another no strings attached $1000000000."

Of course those filthy crypto commies won't ante up,it's for a good cause.

GMax

OT

Seen this? It will likely work like troll repellant tomorrow:

RASMUSSEN HINTS FOR TOMORROW:
“McCain takes a lead in a state for the first time since the general election”

RichatUF

GMax-

Any guesses? MI or PA would be the dam break.

M. Simon

Also coming Monday morning will be new polling on the Presidential race in Minnesota and North Carolina Later on Monday, the latest results for the Senate races in Minnesota, and North Carolina will be released. Finally, at 6:00 p.m. Eastern on Monday, Presidential poll results will be released for Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

RAS

clarice

Thanks, PUK.
I was just fiddling around various sites looking to see who was backing O.Came across feminist historian Ros Fraad Baxandall--a blast from the past! We were at university together. She's from a rich old Communist family. At school her mom used to admonish her to dress in her best before demonstrations, noting she herself always got decked out in furs for them and sent her poetry like "How odd of God to rhyme with Fraad.."
Well, folks you get the picture.

GMax

Well if stuttering is a tell, it will be Minnesota. If you have been listening to me talk about it for awhile, you know in my heart that I think its Michigan.

I would of course be content with Pa too, more electoral votes and would cause a run at Kaopectate at the DNC!

bad

would cause a run at Kaopectate

Is this an investment hint?

Elliott

Could be New Hampshire (I don't think McCain has been ahead there).

clarice

GMAx what is the source for that post about the Ras hint?

Elliott

Since they aren't releasing New Hampshire polling, I guess that it not it.

DebinNC

I bet it's PA.

Elliott

******is not it********

Jane

“McCain takes a lead in a state for the first time since the general election”

What general election? 2004?

Jane

On second thought that is probably a dumb question, but it is very odd phrasing since McCain wasn't in the 2004 general election.

RichatUF

Serves the DNC right to start losing ground in PA. Good grief, what more did they need-Obama lost the state by 20 points during the primary. Seems "lovable gaffe" Homer Biden ain't bringing it home for his team.

PeterUK

Good grief Clarice,she sounds like Diedre Dutt Pauker,a character by Peter Simple

clarice

PUK, I swear it's true. At least half my friends and housemates were children of parents from NY who'd been blacklisted or called before HUAC to testify. Ros was the most colorful of the lot because she was so wealthy and her family so outstandingly wacked out.

PeterUK

Clarice,
Time for your autobiography.

clarice

HEH--t has been fun,PUK.
Do you suppose Simple ran into the same tranche of loonies over there?

M. Simon

PeterUK,

I vote for JOM babes.

Charlie (Colorado)

Ohio.

Gozaimas'.

kim

Joe, tomato good, I say.
================

Michael B.

I didn't have trouble with the AIG deal. The U.S. got 80% of the equity and charges 8.5% interest for any money loaned. I know Paulson is tired but he needs to be working for the U.S. now and not GS. If GS or any other institution needs the credit of the U.S. and BP think their failure would be problematic, similar terms. If McCain is a maverick, he needs to get his hooves up against this deal. Hell, otherwise let's just get the pretty socialist who might put the Iranians in a better mood.

M. Simon

MB,

I don't think getting the Iranians in a better mood will change their policy of nuking Israel and who ever else stands in their way in the ME.

Better they should be in a bad mood. A very bad mood.

PeterUK

Clarice,most certainly.

clarice

The Palin hackers also have done a lot of other disgusting things which have received no press coverage as Steve Gilbert notes:
They also stormed a virtual world known as Habbo by sending in black-skinned avatars with Afro hair to block off the pool to other users, claiming it was infected with AIDS.

They also formed swastika formations.

The group was slated over the suicide of US student Mitchell Henderson, who they claimed had shot himself because he lost his iPod, something he had noted on his MySpace page.

Anonymous seized on a badly written message on his online memorial page and turned the phrase “an hero” into an internet catchphrase.

For more than a year, the sick group carried on the harassment by calling the youngster’s parents, pretending to be his ghost.


They sound like typical Democrats.
http://sweetness-light.com/archive/the-palin-email-hackers-other-dirty-tricks>Good thing Rubico's dad is not a Rep

Michael B.

I didn't have trouble with the AIG deal. The U.S. got 80% of the equity and charges 8.5% interest for any money loaned. I know Paulson is tired but he needs to be working for the U.S. now and not GS. If GS or any other institution needs the credit of the U.S. and BP think their failure would be problematic, similar terms. If McCain is a maverick, he needs to get his hooves up against this deal. Hell, otherwise let's just get the pretty socialist who might put the Iranians in a better mood.

Michael B.

I didn't have trouble with the AIG deal. The U.S. got 80% of the equity and charges 8.5% interest for any money loaned. I know Paulson is tired but he needs to be working for the U.S. now and not GS. If GS or any other institution needs the credit of the U.S. and BP think their failure would be problematic, similar terms. If McCain is a maverick, he needs to get his hooves up against this deal. Hell, otherwise let's just get the pretty socialist who might put the Iranians in a better mood.

TCO

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080922/ap_on_bi_ge/bank_change

Well, there you go, kids. The Feds are ALLOWING Goldman Sachs (an investment bank) to change it's classification so as to be more government protected. We are WELCOMING liabilities. And taking care of guys who are Long Island millionaires. And Democrats at that.

sophy

I will thank for my friends bringing me in this world. I am not regret to buy Hellgate Palladium .

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