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September 06, 2008



Was thinking some about the OODA loop thing.

Now, normally, if a candidate were getting drubbed like Barack Hussein, the thing to do would be to disengage "kick-out" to use a dog fight analogy, and regroup to fight another day.

The problem with that is that he doesn't now have any rear areas to retreat to, he's left himself no strategic depth by positioning himself so far left. McCain/Palin have come straight onto his field with a vengeance. If he tries to come to the center now, McCain/Palin are going to cut him off at the knees. This could all be over before the first debate.


With their Ad Hominette's the MSM is simply reaching a new high in low.

Uncle BigBad

At the McCain/Palin rally in Colorado Springs, volunteer veterans are passing out flags rescued from the trash after the Dem convention.

Dem outrage scheduled to begin. . . .


So how are you feeling about the Palin pick these days, TM? Hope you're cheered by the indicators thus far that the opinions of the ladies of Darien are not in fact a bellwether for November.

Patrick R. Sullivan

Paul Krugman sez, 'Moi?':

What struck me as I watched the convention speeches, however, is how much of the anger on the right is based not on the claim that Democrats have done bad things, but on the perception — generally based on no evidence whatsoever — that Democrats look down their noses at regular people.

Thus Mr. Giuliani asserted that Wasilla, Alaska, isn’t “flashy enough” for Mr. Obama, who never said any such thing. And Ms. Palin asserted that Democrats “look down” on small-town mayors — again, without any evidence.

Yeah, it's not like anyone explained his defeat in PA--to a group of wealthy San Francisco Democrats--as due to a bunch of bitter, clingy hicks.


Or called the town "Wa-silly" instead of Wasilla.


Who knew Kristol was a Caddyshack fan?

Judge Smails: You know, you should play with Dr. Beeper and myself. I mean, he's been club champion for three years running and I'm no slouch myself.

Ty Webb: Don't sell yourself short Judge, you're a tremendous slouch.


Note to Krugman: McCain never really said the ownership society means people are on their own.

Captain Hate

What struck me as I watched the convention speeches, however, is how much of the anger on the right is based not on the claim that Democrats have done bad things, but on the perception — generally based on no evidence whatsoever — that Democrats look down their noses at regular people.

Why does Pinch Carpberger employ Drugman? There's no evidence that this economist even remotely comprehends supply and demand curves. But this takes his lunacy into truly deep waters. "generally based on no evidence whatsoever": Ok, whatever you say Paulie, because you're the smart guy.

I'm feeling guilty for how much fun I'm having watching these gasbags beclown themselves.

Barry Dauphin

Why does Pinch Carpberger employ Drugman? There's no evidence that this economist even remotely comprehends supply and demand curves.

And we could also add, what does so-called "anger" in speeches have to do with economics? Since he doesn't understand supply and demand, I guess he's gotta write about something.


I love it: 'generally based on no evidence whatsoever'. Heh, when you look at the specifics, however, Paul, honey.


"Dem outrage scheduled to begin."

I went to some website that published this stoey and the claim was it was all oh so fake patriotism..I answered then why did the DNC buy all those flags and have the conventiongoers wave them for the cameras before they threw them away?


Wreck of a home life? Good gracious! I'm speechless.


Chaco--Lucianne has made a reference to your site a Must Read and AT linked to it, too.

Mondrian.speedos..margaritas, sweetie..Save a chaise longue for me.


Palin's "wreck of a home life"???!!!!

Because her 17 yr old daughter is pregnant? That's a wreck of a home life?

Because she's still married to her husband?

Because she decided not to abort her baby?

Because her sister got a divorce?

What the hell is Rosin talking about?


Okay, I'm not so speechless after all: Conservatives are making them look stuffy and slow-witted? Liberals manage that all by themselves, besides being:


I know I'm just a rube an all but I'd find a flag waved at a US presidential convention to be a prized possession.

On the other hand, were Obama my candidate I might be feeling down on the USA too.


Oh, I forgot:

Danube of Thought

"...generally based on no evidence whatsoever..."

Paul Krugman, New York Timesman, sees no evidence whatsoever that his readership looks down their noses on people.

These people really aren't gonna know what hit 'em. The trolls do; they've shut their mouths good and tight. When your dauber's down, you become sullen, depressed, silent...


the liberal media were so befuddled that they were reduced to complaining that conservatives aren't being narrow-minded enough.


What a bunch of twits.

Soylent Red


I was asked about this very thing by a Dem who has now switched to McCain...

OODA exploitation works so well because at every completion of the cycle, as the cycle itself constricts, the defender must reassess his position based on more restrictive Observation (he sees less) and more time sensitive and accuracy-dependent Orientation (his perception is incorrect and he has less time to evaluate that perception).

Like the Gulf War or the Race to Baghdad, once stuff starts happening it is very difficult for the defender to recognize how bad things are or how to stem the tide. Add to that the tempo element applied to the Orientation and Decide phases, and you get rapid but uninformed decision-making that is inherently maintains the spiral.

Obamessiah will undoubtedly understand that bad things are happening to his campaign, but he will not be able to accurately see what those things are, how they are happening or how to avoid further constriction of his loop.

According to a Marine F-18 pilot I know, even if you can identify that someone is inside your loop, it is difficult to break free of that because your judgment is out of whack. Fighter pilots try to get separation, whereas ground maneuver works for rapid retrograde, or some sort of game changing counterattack. All difficult things when your Observation and Orientation are suspect.

Better pilots or commanders can force errors that might give them an escape from the loop, but mostly, when a skilled practitioner gets inside your loop, you're f*cked. It really just becomes a question of how fast the terminal mistake comes.

This is all why OODA, properly applied is so beautiful.

Interested Voter

And notice that the Obama campaign likely doesn't have too many people with military experience who would be familiar with OODA . . .


I am a nut for the history of fashion and its political implications. There is a show on Bravo called "Project Runway." The theme of the show is to highlight a number of unknown designers in a series of elimination challenges. The last three standing are allowed show their lines at Bryant Park. The resident guru of the show is a fellow by the name of Tim Gunn. Over the years, Mr. Gunn has displayed a knowledge of fashion and a gravitas that truly distinguishes "Project Runway" as a serious yet interesting window into the world of fashion - he is not a judge, but a mentor to these designers.

Last night, he appeared on the Conan O'Brien show. Mr. Gunn trashed Laura Bush, Cindy McCain, and Sarah Palin on their fashion sense. While he did criticize Roselyn Carter, he praised Michelle Obama to the hilt. His comments were one-liner Blackwellian snark. In less than three minutes, he turned fashion into politics and it wasn't pretty (not to mention even rational).

I would assume that Mr. Gunn and the judges on Project Runway are politically liberal. I was dismayed to see Tim Gunn destroy his own brand with such nonsense. He easily could have told Conan's audience his perception of how each woman should dress and why, with his usual insight and thoughtfulness.

What a pity. Fashion just jumped on the snark.


I'm sure you all read the piece at HOt Air where a convention worker in St. Paul said the guys at MSNBC reported something entirely different than they said in private.

I;m not surprised but that's a pretty big indictment of someone who calls himself a "reporter".



Nina Garcia Wants Michelle Obama and Cindy McCain on Project Runway

Yeah, Nina, good luck with that after Tim Gunn just trashed Cindy McCain AND Oscar de la Renta.

Terry Gain

"So cavalier are conservatives about Sarah Palin's wreck of a home life....

Wreck of a home life! Good gawd where do these effing liberals come up with this shit.

Ms. Rosin on the other hand has an even dozen children:

a rabbi, a nun, a missionary, a farmer, a social worker, a doctor, a teacher, an architect, a liberal, an engineer, a scientist who is working on a cure for cancer, AIDS and hoof and mouth disease not, and last but not least a community organizer.


OODA is over-hyped sillines. I gag when I have to read some warmed over War College essay in Proceedings that refers to OODA or Klausewitz in the same manner as someone touching a statue of a saint. Instead of tired references to such bromides, how about thinking. How about facts. How about issue analysis that disaggregates and organizes in the most revealing manner.

Oh...and don't get me started on jointness or interoperability, motherfuckers. Too many retreads gassing up Washington. Get them out in the field practicing the operational art. Fucking Admirals are too lazy or stupid to think so they outsource the "vision thing" to Powerpoint contractors. What a lukewarm sack of shit.


Oh...and the OODA analogy is totally messed up as a metaphor for a process that is more of a game theoritic one in terms of decision making. Very little evidence of "rush" having any effect on the Obama decision making.

But then again to observe this we would have to actually think. Instead of intellectual jacking off.

JM Hanes

"The Obama-Media Ticket"

I'm reminded of Rick's brilliant suggestion: When engaging the press, refer to Obama as "your candidate."

Soylent Red


Somewhere I thought you said you were a Marine. If you are, you are 180 degrees out of phase with Marine Corps doctrine since about 1980.

OODA was originally Boyd's theory on conflict decision-making and as such has relevance anywhere two competing aims are in conflict with each other. It applies to dogfighting the same as it applies to maneuver warfare, marketing and politics. There is an entire martial arts system designed to take advantage of OODA.

But, whatever...bromides, War College, fuck, etc. Roger.

And fuck COIN. Got it.


fuck fuck fuckity fuck fuck


Love the Standard's cover illustration.

Danube of Thought

Soylent, I'm not aviator, but I think it also helps to have a pilot and an aircraft who can pull more G's and make a tighter turn.

Uncle BigBad


I'm guessing you just stuck your hand into a beehive.


Funny story about Feith for you neo-cons. We all know that Franks called Doug, "the stupidest fucking guy on the planet". Well, what you man not know is that one of the CENTCOM J-3 operators, responded when hearing that story, "and Franks knows stupid!"

*cymbal sound*


Sullivan on Kristol:

Gay gossip site and anti-Semitic conspiracy newsletter The Atlantic's most prominent writer, RAWMUSLGLUTES, gets at the truth:

Bill Kristol on Sarah Palin. All he writes about in this piece of propaganda is electoral strategy and the people he hates in the media. In a week, he hasn't said a word about Sarah Palin's foreign policy views. I know she's being safely indoctrinated by Joe Lieberman and AIPAC as we speak, but the fact that Kristol, like the rest of us, has not yet been able to point to a single view of hers on foreign policy in her entire life, is eloquent enough. Aren't we at war? Isn't he supposed to care about national security? Is everything about pursuing power by any means to him?

ME: IN ACE'S POST which includes this:

Can you p-shop. ACE wants to jam the Atlantic for continuing with Sullivan and his anti-Semitic rants:
Let's ratchet up the pressure on The Atlantic. What I'm looking for is "advertisemnts" for The Atlantic which stress the magazine's new direction as a gay gossip site and anti-Jew conspiracy newsletter. And perhaps with quotes from Andrew Sullivan, which really convince you, the reader, why you need to subscribe to The Atlantic. For its amazing reporting.

I may run some of them in the sidebar. Sidebar width is 155 px, so you know the space you have to work with.

Gay Gossip Site and Anti-Semitic Conspiracy Newsletter The Atlantic Has a Fresh Reason for Pride

Soylent Red

No beehive Uncle.

TCO is entitled to his opinion. I and others just don't happen to agree with it.

M. Simon


The US Navy has been doing OODA since 1978 or earlier.

Think of the lessons of the battle of Midway. The Nay is fortunate. They have seconds to make decisions instead of tenths.

A modern political campaign has an hour or two.

It is still a loop no matter the time scale.


Oogah, boogah, OODA. Let's just say the Swifties got inside Kerry's OODA loop last time.


Idiots need to stop citing buzzwords and actually THINK. State a position in the clearest possible terms so it can at least be argued with. No more obfuscation. If you don't know how to pronounce a word, SAY IT LOUD. SAY IT LOUD. Grow a nutsack.

Look at this peice of shit from the CENTCOM Operations shop:


Jeezuz Christ. That'sm not a plan. That's not an analysis. That's a San Francisco circle jerk.






obama calls the waahmbualnce, but hillary's got "other commitments."


I'm reminded of Rick's brilliant suggestion: When engaging the press, refer to Obama as "your candidate."

When Sally Quinn "apologized", she said:

She was funny and smart and poised and confident and she gave a great speech, beautifully delivered, and I think she is going to be a formidable opponent.

"Opponent", not "candidate." Not a Freudian slip exactly, just an interesting choice of words.

M. Simon


larwyn has physical difficulties and doesn't post clickable links. Surely a military genius like you could at least do LUN.

BTW the OODA loop has its analog in Control Theory: We say in Real Time Control - late answers are wrong answers. It leads to oscillation or chaos depending.

I'd say you needed more cross disciplinary training.


Sukie @ 9:45

After Rush ripped Sally Q a new one this past week she now can speak from a position of superiority.

Many on the Washington party circuit have taken to using bleach to attain a disired matched pair

Mars vs Hollywood

Very little evidence of "rush" having any effect on the Obama decision making.

How about Obama rushing out to draw distinctions between himself and the VICE Presidential nominee from the Republican side?

Saying his decision was based on "rush" is actually the charitable way of looking at it.

Charlie (Colorado)

Instead of intellectual jacking off.

I guess we will just have to bow to your superior knowledge of this topic.

Charlie (Colorado)

You know what? This doesn't seem like TCO's usual MO at all. Tom, you want to check the IP addresses here?

Charlie (Colorado)

DoT, you're right about needing to consider max turn rate and max gee load as well. In terms of fighter pilots, you need both Boyd's idea of the "flight envelope" or "performance" envelope, which describe the flight characteristics, and the OODA loop, which describe the pilots' decision making.


You know what? You're absolutely right. How could I have been so confused?

Charlie (Colorado)

Thought so.


Actually to come here, and be unaware of Afghan history, early US history, basic tactics and strategy seems the very much the way of the troll. "Hulk Smash" is not
a strategy, not even a tactic.It's the way the Russian ended up with a defenestrated puppet in Kabul, a likely future fate in Grozny; maybe the same fate in the Pankisi Gorge.Preble & Eaton, & Decatur's exploits are to be remembered; the Barbary Pirates, but the lessons were much harder.

On another note, they say that Eagleton's past electroshock experience indicated he was crazy; what does that say of McGovern; he actually thought his nomination was proof of American acceptance of him, when it was more the product of a strategic calculation on the Nixon administration to kneecap their strongest opponents. Who was more delusional then? Not surprisingly, he pulled the same trick back in 2006; urging
a complete pullout from Iraq, relinquishment
of all oil contracts; surrender to AQ and Iran.

His mini-me, goes one better; he seems constitutionally incapable of acknowledging
huge misteps. How do you top off losing the last six primaries; because of your almost genetic antipathy to working class values;
than pull a dog and pony show, with a result eerily like Bulwinkle's hat trick. The combined wisdom of Kennedy & Holder; gives you Joe Biden, Mr. Malapropism, the retainer for the credit card companies, plagiarism, of an entirely different SES. the anti-rave man, the Emily Litella of the AUMF 'never mind' mentality. Epic fail. You follow that up by letting your 'flying monkey web' minions, put up a wave of innuendo, and misogynistic jibes; insulting a Mother's care for her children, specially considering your own background;diminishing her executive experience; which runs rings around yours. One sees that Kos illustrated;
Vanity Fair; the proof than an infinite number of monkeys, can't ever write Hamlet; but they can do editorial work for Count
Down, has gone down the Trig truther path,


10:44 was not me. Probably charlie girl. The bitch is sad that I don't respond to her.

R C Dean

I think it also helps to have a pilot and an aircraft who can pull more G's and make a tighter turn.

That helps, of course, but OODA was conceived to, and did, help American pilots beat opp force pilots in superior aircraft.

Barney Frank

You know what? This doesn't seem like TCO's usual MO at all. Tom, you want to check the IP addresses here?

No that's good old TCO all over when he's rapidly cycling. Kind of overwhelms the lithium and the manic phase gets a little out of hand. Give him a day or two.


It was me. And it's not lithium. It's gin.

Except 1044 was definitley not me.

Based on time stamps, I think it was charlie's angel.

JM Hanes

"How about issue analysis that disaggregates and organizes in the most revealing manner."

You first.

JM Hanes

"generally based on no evidence whatsoever"

Then there are the cases where the evidence is incontrovertible, of course. Krugman doesn't even bother to cover up the weasel words any more, does he? How do you suppose his hits stack up against MoDo's?


you first? you first!? You don't even know how fucked up that is. You just chip onto the green with that piece of tripe. This is why we have Steve McI playing equivocation, word parsing, failure to admit things games (to the extent of lying in a moral sense)...but Mann does it too. Sheesh.

JM Hanes

TCO: That's a lot of gin, dear.

M. Simon


You are leaving out one critical point Steve McI shows his work. Mann et. al. - not so much.


"Because her 17 yr old daughter is pregnant? That's a wreck of a home life?

Because she's still married to her husband?

Because she decided not to abort her baby?

Because her sister got a divorce?

What the hell is Rosin talking about?"

It isn't the liberal way,where is the same sex relationship?


I think Steve McI shows his code and data better than Mike Mann.

I think he does a worse job of finishing off analyses and is also worse in terms of touting half-done analyses (which he never finishes).

I find them amazingly similar in refusal to concede points and in the tendancy to see discussion of specifics only in terms of the meta-narrative. Also in refusal to address most telling points, to engage directly, honestly and tellingly with arguments from opponents. Also in seeing the meta-narrative largely (and sometimes almost unthinkingly in terms of proving a person (or "team") to do shoddy analysis (rather than the analysis to be shoddy).

They each have their own style of pedanticness, though. Mann is stick up the ass Herr Doktor Professor German professor, young Turk academic who has school skipped and played the game so that he is now a big (young) guy. IOW an ego scientist. Steve instead does that weird Latin crap. And flawed analogies to securities (coming from a Canadian penny stock mining operator nonetheless.)

JM Hanes

PUK, that's scheduled for this week's installment of the SarahSoaps.


The difference between them, TCO, is that Steve is doing something right, and Mann is doing something wrong.


I want doctrine, I'll go to the Baltimore Catechism.

1. There was a good sendup of the "doctrine writers" in the USNI a few months ago. Some girl wrote an article on how crappy military writing is. How loaded it is with buzzwords and repetition...to the extent of being ambiguous. "Not even wrong" as the anti-stringers would put it. Only thing is I wish she had ripped butthole harder. But still, God's work was served.

2. There was a piece by the CMC about a year ago that was a total hack piece. The thing was dripping with inside the Beltway, inside the E-ring latest greatest Haigisms. And it was very poorly structured (laundry lists, lack of prioritization). I was embarressed that he didn't have a staffie to produce something better. Not expecting him to think or anything. But should be smart enough to let stuff with his name on it going out to a national audience in a supposed scholarly/critical journal at least be wirebrushed to a shine.

3. I am getting so that all I read are the letters and the "Nobody Asked Me But"s. Fun watching people rip tit in there.


kim: He's not doing good by not completing work to at least the point of an arxive paper. By having a little echo chamber.


This is an old complaint of yours, TCO, and a valid one, but Steve has inspired the skeptical movement like no else has, and possibly, like no one else could.


He's had an important effect. Burger and I agree on this. And agree that he tapdances and plays games when one probes on soft points of his own. I'm ok that he has had a benefit. I just don't want you hoi polloit to be misled into thinking that it is more than what it is. Or that truth should be somehow postmodernly perverted depending on which side you are on.


Steve pretty thoroughly sticks to the evidence. I don't think you can hang postmodern perversion on him. Now, the warmers, that's a different story.

Did you catch Richard Black writing that Pachauri is going to ask people to stop eating meat, because the industry puts so much greenhouse gas into the air? He completely misses the point that the food going to cattle would be metabolized into greenhouse gas whether it is in the cow's stomach or not.


Re: Krugman

From Yahoo News on Aug. 29th:

Minutes after the McCain campaign confirmed that Palin would be the Republican’s VP pick, Obama spokesman Bill Burton dismissed the Alaska governor as a lightweight.

McCain, he said, had put "the former mayor of a town of 9,000 with zero foreign policy experience a heartbeat away from the presidency."

I guess in Krugman's eyes that's not "looking down" at Palin.



That was w wonderfully meaningless glob of shite TCO.I think it qualifies for an entry in the "Bumper Book of Bollocks".


Wow, talk about whiplash. Was there an earlier AGW thread here? When it went from Kristol and Krugie to CA & RC, I blew lunch from the Gs. Mann isn't the only one refusing to show his work, obviously. Of course, when your name is Caspar, having your work analyzed makes you white as an (un)friendly ghost.

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