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October 17, 2008

Comments

Charlie (Colorado)

Firiday?

clarice

"If you need a splash of cold water" I'll always know where to go.
Now..Where's the place with subbeams and unicorns?

Sue

I was listening to an Obama economic adviser on Fox and I can't figure out Obama's tax cut for 95% of the country. He isn't talking about a permanent tax cut, is he? A one time "stimulus" check or a one time "tax credit" and then back to business as usual. Has anyone asked him if the "tax cut" is permanent?

badjoe

I like a splash of something in my water...

Rick Ballard

For those who like to play "Which Way In The Witching Hour?", here's a Dow Components chart with nice flashing tics.

A Firiday treat.

Elliott

From a">http://justoneminute.typepad.com/main/2003/01/a_secret_signal.html#comment-135194307">a five year old Colin Powell thread that someone revived earlier:

...the former archbishop of Canterbury, George Carey, rose to ask the secretary, who was raised as an Anglican,

So maybe Powell is going on MTP this Sunday to make clear that he's still an, uh, EpiscoPalin.

Jim Ryan

Michael Firiday. Guy invented magnets.

sbw

Heh! A Thank God it's Firiday treat.

Courtesy of Instapundit and the LA Times blog.

Sue

Pheh! Colin Powell was UGO's brain. I have no use for him.

Elliott

Sorry, Sue, only chance I could see to use that line. Hey, I heard Ayers gave a speech in Caracas. Isn't Ugo in charge there?

Charlie (Colorado)

Can you have a melt that goes sideways? At 7 minutes before the bell the Dow is within 1 percent of the open.

Damn, I've got to start buying some straddles.

Pofarmer

I was listening to an Obama economic adviser on Fox and I can't figure out Obama's tax cut for 95% of the country.

Please remember, this mythical tax cut will be AFTER the Bush tax cuts expire. There have been all kinds of goodies in there for small businesses, I expect that stuff to cease and desist immediately. Any way you wanna cut it, if you don't already pay taxes, you'll get more welfare. If you already pay taxes, you'll pay more, it's just that simple. I'd invite someone to prove me wrong.

AdrianS

2nd lawsuit challenges Obama's citizenship
Man demands state verify birth records or remove senator from ballots

Note: It is incumbent on ALL Secretaries of State in all of the United States to BOTH accurately verify Voters AND candidates. Barack Hussein Obama has sealed his "Hawaiian" birth records and also records in Kenya.

Failure to verify and certify qualification for ALL candidates in a general election by any Secretary of State may be a cause of action (dereliction of duty) and criminal charges may be filed.

http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=78111

Also:

The Video that could cost Obama the election

http://www.nextgenerationcorp.com/NextGenBlog/?p=68

First Lawsuit against Obama and the DNC:
http://www.obamacrimes.com

callmynameandwakeup(Evanescence)

Sponge Bob's best friend is Mr. Bubble. He pays in bubble dollars and bubble coins. Of course we all know what happens to bubbles.

Joe's in New Mexico explaining why Plame and Obama have America pay. 'The roof is on fire... we don't need no water.....let the motherfer burn........ burn motherfer...burn............'

Luciferians always want someone else to pay and we're paying for their hate...we don't need no water, burn motherfcker burn.....

Maybe dems have the commune mentality so others can pay.

PeterUK

Seems we are about to ride a Kondratieff Wave. "Surfs Up".

Charlie (Colorado)

Oh man, and Friday the 13th came on Monday this month.

Rick Ballard

Peter,

That fellow doesn't know his ass from six-bits. If there had been (or looked as if there might be) such a drastic drop in trade you would have heard about Lloyd's people leaping from every bridge on the Thames. One small example:

"Ocean shipping depends heavily on credit to finance ships and cargo. To put it in simple terms: "A shipping company takes out a short term loan to buy the cargo, ships it overseas and sells the cargo."

Pure bullshit. No load of raw material goes on board without a customer who has 1)Prepaid or 2)arranged a Letter of Credit (which typically isn't a loan - it's a claim on funds held in the customer's bank which are blocked until completion of the transaction. If the customer operates on a line of credit with his bank, then the bank blocks usage of a portion of the line of credit equal to the amount of the Letter of Credit until negotiation. They do not charge any interest until the funds transfer is completed.

The concept of a shipping line acting as broker and vendor is theoretically possible but I don't know of any actual examples of companies which do so.

The author is conflating a percentage drop in prices charged with cargo moved. When cargo to be moved drops by 10%, then it is rather unsurprising that prices might drop by a multiple of 10%. Transport is rather notorious for cut throat pricing when usage drops - they make up for it with collaborative price gouging when capacity is tight. There will be BKs in transport, without a doubt. I just find the conflation of rate change with number of fixings to be rather ludicrous.

This guy didn't do his homework. There's a lot of that going around with people writing on finance.

Charlie (Colorado)

And besides, Kondratieff's biorhythms are all wrong for being correct this year.

Soylent Red

You know what they say...

A Firiday keeps the doctor away.

Well, some people say that. If they've been drinking.

As an aside...

If any of you get the chance, take a couple of hours out and go to Michie Tavern outside of Charlottesville, take the tour, eat some chicken. It won't disappoint. If you do it during the fall, it really won't disappoint.

kim

What about that guy's figure of $1.125 quadrillion in derivatives and $50 Trillion in gross product? What could possibly service that?
=================================

mark l.

"I was listening to an Obama economic adviser on Fox and I can't figure out Obama's tax cut for 95% of the country."

confused? nothing like obama...

He and posse have been bandying the 250K threshold as the safe zone.

In Joe the plumber's case, he enters the top bracket at 200k, as he is not married.

If he were married, he would get the 250K limit.

Which brings up an even wierder point about the tax plan.

If a husband and wife are making more than 250k, they should get divorced immediately if Obama wins.

Individually, they would have a combined limit of 400K to avoid top bracket, married and they would be at the top bracket making 150K less.

the media, the lefty blogs- despite their examination of Joe have failed to apply Obama's tax policy correctly to his unmarried status. considering how often 250k has been cited in Joe's case, I believe that no one has read his tax plan, including Obama.

mark l.

is it some diabolical plot to keep yuppies from getting married?

ynamakeupence

Obama is suing the US government for the ACORN leak. It's just like Plame(joe's in NM). He's gonna sue Bush and Dick next.

No one knew Val and his brother's were dating. It's just engineering degrees; it's like it's WMD.

ynupence

Obama orders special prosecutor
LUN

Obama is going to tax the GDP/GNP which is 95% of the population. He is going to give that money to his foreign friends. Thus, the tax will be lower for those who make less money, but they will continue to be poor because, rather than a well paying job, it's low paying federal community work limited to one year and promises of education. His tax breaks, how poor people are kept poor, will come from our production and obviously poor people do not contribute much so the tax should be less.

matt

people why try to time the market, whether stocks, real estate, the internet bubble, etc usually get creamed.

In 2000, for example, Cisco projected continual growth for the next 5-10 years at 20-25%/year, even though it was obvious that there was a glut of capacity and there were already signs of a slow down. Cisco had (and has) a lot of book smart people. The next year, they almost went BK, and survived by basically screwing their supply chain (cancelling orders, returning custom product) and reining in spending, laying off, etc. This happened across the spectrum.

In RE boom/bust is the norm, and many developers have made fortunes and then busted, leaving their creditors on the hook.

This seems to be the American way. Now, we have the biggest RE bubble/bust along with a projected industrial slowdown as well, so it will be tougher. There are all sorts of fallout issues this time that go well beyond past recessions. Ukraine and Hungary are tapping the IMF so they don't go bust, and hey, in California it's just about ready to blow. Even in flush times, the idiots in Sacramento managed to outspend income. Now we're going to see an even greater economic impact with the gay marriage bill. It's been a money grab all along, and the public piggy bank can't stand the new stress. That and dumb union contracts/pensions have just about done her in. And if Cali goes, there are several more states right behind it.

Not to be a Jonah, but the reality is that there is no common sense left. The good news is:

. Common sense will eventually out.

. the manufacturing sector, Ag, and RE will come back. People need a place to live. Those and raw materials are the fundamentals, and the US is still a leader, especially if we're pushed against a wall.

. inventiveness still lives, as does creativity.

The only thing to do is work our way out of this.

matt

Rick;

I would add to your comments a bit. I know a lot of major corporations who live on their lines of credit with suppliers, and that is just as dangerous right now.

There is an industry called EMS (electronic manufacturing services) that builds just about anything electronic we use today. It's all a house of cards, and a lot of that stuff is on open terms with suppliers.

Open markets and easy credit made this growth possible, and as long as the gravy train continues, it works. The day some people start to default, everyone gets cautious. seen it several times. The semiconductor book to bill ratio (orders vs shipments, basically) just dropped to 0.75 last month. That is scary but manageable.

The shipping lines are pretty much cash and carry, and as far as I know never finance loads unless they're part of a vertically integrated corporation (oil, minerals).

Joe

Obama's 95% tax cut is actually a series of fully refundable tax credits.
A fully refundable tax credit means that you can receive more money in a tax "refund" than you actually paid in.
Basically a nice way to recieve welfare without feeling ashamed.
http://www.barackobama.com/pdf/taxes/Factsheet_Tax_Plan_FINAL.pdf

Aaron

I work in China. Basically, since about 6 months ago, no raw material suppliers will give credit. You need to pay cash. (Too many companies were getting the customer to pay 30% up front and then burning the suppliers and fleeing to parts unknown.)

Meanwhile, export trade terms in asia have migrated form letter of credit (standard 15 years ago) to wire transfers or open account.

Lots of people going out of business because all of a sudden their low profit margins cannot deal with their new demand for cash.

PeterUK

"A fully refundable tax credit means that you can receive more money in a tax "refund" than you actually paid in.
Basically a nice way to recieve welfare without feeling ashamed."

Forgetting the vast cost to administer the tax credit.NuLabor use the system here,it creates enormous anomalies and is very inefficient.

Rick Ballard

"Lots of people going out of business because all of a sudden their low profit margins cannot deal with their new demand for cash."

I've seen articles minimizing the global scope of the financial crisis by citing the "amazing growth" in China's economy as being the new 'pump primer'. I'm always fascinated by the complete lack of understanding demonstrated by those authors. Inter Asian trading has always been a low-margin affair. Asia has always made more money selling into Europe or, even better, the US than it has dealing within the confines of Asia. There is no denying the very good growth rate of China's economy but like any high sales, low margin corporation, a drop in sales quickly leverages into very high losses.

The Chinese factories with good relationships with Walmart, Costco and the other big box retailers should squeeze through OK. The factories dealing with second and third tier corporate customers are less likely to make it. If I were in their shoes, terms would be 'cash against docs' (wire transfer against shipping documents), period.

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Wilson/Plame