Open Thread Saturday

Here we go.

Comments

[M. Simon]

I'm going to open it up with:

Oil Down

[M. Simon]

The Anger We Need

Courtesy of commenter Hit and Run.

[SWarren]

From IBD:

The freeze-up of the financial system — and government's seeming inability to thaw it out — are a main concern, no doubt. But more people are also starting to look across the valley, as they say, at what's in store once this crisis passes.

And right now it looks like the U.S., which built the mightiest, most prosperous economy the world has ever known, is about to turn its back on the free-enterprise system that made it all possible.

It isn't only that the most anti-capitalist politician ever nominated by a major party is favored to take the White House. It's that he'll also have a filibuster-proof Congress led by politicians who are almost as liberal.

Throw in a media establishment dedicated to the implementation of a liberal agenda, and the smothering of dissent wherever it arises, and it's no wonder panic has set in.

What is that agenda? It starts with a tax system right out of Marx: A massive redistribution of income — from each according to his ability, to each according to his need — all in the name of "neighborliness," "patriotism," "fairness" and "justice."

It continues with a call for a new world order that turns its back on free trade, has no problem with government controlling the means of production, imposes global taxes to support continents where our interests are negligible, signs on to climate treaties that will sap billions more in U.S. productivity and wealth, and institutes an authoritarian health care system that will strip Americans' freedoms and run up costs.

All the while, it ensures that nothing — absolutely nothing — will be done to secure a sufficient, terror-proof supply of our economic lifeblood — oil — a resource we'll need much more of in the years ahead.

The businesses that create jobs and generate wealth are already discounting the future based on what they know about Obama's plans to raise income, capital gains, dividend and payroll taxes, and his various other economy-crippling policies. Which helps explain why world stock markets have been so topsy-turvy.

LUN

[centralcal]

Anybody watching Cavuto right now? Huckabee is saying he got a tip that the market is being manipulated. 12-day pattern of late selling right before market close, before market can respond.

Cavuto is taking it seriously. Pres. Bush speaking right now - radio address - but Cavuto to continue Huckabee conversation afterward.

[centralcal]

well, they changed subjects.

[Jane Whitman]

I wouldn't be surprised if there is manipulation. Sadly I don't know enough about it to have a valid opinion.

[clarice]

Michael Barone--the coming thugocracy:
"Once upon a time, liberals prided themselves, with considerable reason, as the staunchest defenders of free speech. Union organizers in the 1930s and 1940s made the case that they should have access to employees to speak freely to them, and union leaders like George Meany and Walter Reuther were ardent defenders of the First Amendment.

Today's liberals seem to be taking their marching orders from other quarters. Specifically, from the college and university campuses where administrators, armed with speech codes, have for years been disciplining and subjecting to sensitivity training any students who dare to utter thoughts that liberals find offensive. The campuses that used to pride themselves as zones of free expression are now the least free part of our society.

Obama supporters who found the campuses congenial and Obama himself, who has chosen to live all his adult life in university communities, seem to find it entirely natural to suppress speech that they don't like and seem utterly oblivious to claims that this violates the letter and spirit of the First Amendment. In this campaign, we have seen the coming of the Obama thugocracy, suppressing free speech, and we may see its flourishing in the four or eight years ahead. "

http://townhall.com/columnists/MichaelBarone/2008/10/11/the_coming_obama_thugocracy>I'm NOT Spartacus

[jean]

From what I understand.Sell orders for mutual funds come in during the day,but are not executed until the last 30 mins. of trading.Usually this is no problem because there are also buyers at this time of day.Unfortunatly this week there were no buyers.

[kim]

Well if they can pin the blame on the market manipulators in time, they struck too soon. Let us hope.
====================================

[Fisher]

KJL over at The Corner states what should be the most obvious question in this entire 'Trooper-gate' opera:

...How many kids does a cop have to taser because he gets fired?...

[jean]

I saw Huckabee also and was spooked.Turned to ST.and got an explanation.If no one explains the situation better than I tried,I will get ST to explain the process later this afternoon.He has gone of to watch 2 baseball games at the moment.

[MarkO]

Of course the market is being manipulated. But, I highly doubt that Huckabee would have any idea about how it is done on his own. Because the government will not let certain segments fail, the manipulation carries less of a risk and becomes wonderfully attractive. The SEC couldn't catch anyone smart. Remember, it is impossible successfully to prosecute a well run conspiracy.

I am personally aware of someone who bought MS at $15, on insider information about the government's ban on short sales, and sold at near or above $30. He made $1.7 million in two days. He won't invest in any real business so long as he can continue to make money on MS.

Is greed still good?

[Charlie (Colorado)]

Anybody watching Cavuto right now? Huckabee is saying he got a tip that the market is being manipulated. 12-day pattern of late selling right before market close, before market can respond.

That's called "not being long over night" and it's a pattern followed by traders in a down market so they can go home and sleep. One of the things that was striking on Friday was that there was no particular late selloff: no big spike of offers at close, and lots of people leaving long positions on the books with the weekend coming.

[Charlie (Colorado)]

Is greed still good?

Is gravity good?

[NBj]

Impeach Obama!!!

[bunky]

The market is too big to manipulate, just look at the bailout and the wonderful "manipulation" it has had since it passed, nary a psychological effect in sight.

The market is us. We let Congress infect Fannie and Fredie with the forced lending and our brokers and bankers got hooked on securitization.

Alot of people have begun to say this, but I will repeat:

This selloff has alot to do with the possibe Democrat takeover of all institutions.

Just Think:

They already control:
1. Media
2. Schools
3. Courts
4. Bureauracracy (all levels)
5. Mainline Churches
6. Google
7. Sports writers (highly annoying)
8. Entertainment
9. Congress

Throw in the Whiehouse and the Supreme Court and there you have it.

[Cenea]

Obama's brothers were on the CIA payroll. A couple of calls to Kenya and they were paid, like him.

[MarkO]

Charlie, my old Duke pal, gravity is not so hot when you are careening around a turn in the High Uintas and sliding over the edge. Gravity is neither good nor bad, it just is. I suppose the same can be said for greed, but, like gravity, we need to be aware of it and protect against injury from it.

[Dil]

Oil is cheap, but can you afford it?

[MN]

Abusing the power.

[ROA]

It is wishful thinking to believe the coming “Omama thugocracy” will only last 4-8 years. With a strongly Democratic congress, Obama will populate the judiciary with extreme liberal judges, hire leftists at all administrative departments; increase funding for ACORN type services; and advance Obama’s successor. Biden will never run for president, and the Clinton wing of the party will be destroyed. Obama comes from Chicago where two men from one family have ruled the city for 40 out of the last 56 years.

[ex-democrat]

clarice - i'm being dense this morning, what does the spartacus reference mean?

[clarice]

A must read by City Journal's Sol Stern on ACORN--it's not their participation in vote fraud which is their most chilling aspect--it's how the organization burrows inside local government to dstroy welfare reform and turn our urban areas into blighted swamps from which sensible businesses and citizens cannot flee http://www.city-journal.org/html/13_2_acorns_nutty_regime.html>Immiserating us all with their nonsense .

ACORN’s specific policy prescriptions offer a job-killing recipe for urban blight and decline. Take, above all, ACORN’s signature “living-wage” legislation, which fully 80 cities have now adopted. This legislation requires that companies doing business with the city must pay their employees a minimum wage that is higher than the national minimum—often as much as one-third higher. The earlier versions of this law embraced only a handful of workers, while the later have included larger and larger numbers, ending with Santa Fe’s ordinance, passed just weeks ago, that covers all workers within the city and will hike the pay of a quarter of the private workforce. Clearly, unlike the old New Left, ACORN is patient, willing to achieve its goals by a thousand modest increments.

You can understand how living-wage legislation might seem reasonable to local legislators, so many of whom have never worked in the private economy. It puts money into the pockets of hardworking low-wage employees at no cost to the city treasury. To oppose it would make you seem like a fat-cat, top-hatted robber baron who relishes the oppression of starving workers. On the other side of the equation, how many city councilmen would understand the thick pile of studies from liberal as well as conservative economists showing conclusively that big hikes in the minimum wage ultimately kill low-wage jobs, as employers replace now-expensive receptionists with newly cost-effective voice-mail systems, say, or pile more duties onto experienced employees instead of hiring additional low-wage beginners? And how many councilmen would understand that increasing the costs of city contractors today will require them to raise the prices they charge the city tomorrow, requiring eventual tax hikes that will drive employers—and jobs—out of town to cheaper locales, isolating the poor who are left behind?

ACORN clearly grasps that reality, however. Accordingly, the group wants to make it much harder for firms and middle-class taxpayers to escape the urban central planner’s grasp. ACORN promotes ideas like “sustainable development,” which would limit the growth of suburbs—so businesses and individuals can’t flee just beyond the city limits so easily—and “regional government,” which would force suburbs to share their tax revenues with cities, so that overburdened middle-class taxpayers can’t vote with their feet against the cities’ ever expanding social-democratic mini-welfare states.

If you read nothing else today, read the Stern article.

[Charlie (Colorado)]

Bunky, you aren't taking that quite far enough. The Democrats is us too.

Mark, what did you want protected against here? That your neighbor made a lot of money? That he made it in stocks? It's not like the short selling restrictions were keeping the price of Microsoft down --- banning short selling takes out downside information, not upside, and besides, I doubt Microsoft was affected by the ban, it not being a financial.

[Rick Ballard]

Jean,

Your explanation is very close. The decision to move from equity to money market by an investor holding mutual funds is generally made (rationally or irrationally) at the end of the day because it makes no sense to do it during the day. The transaction will be completed at the NAV (net asset value) of the fund at the end of the market session. If sell orders come flooding into a mutual fund at the end of each day then a smart fund manager is going to sell at market (driving prices down) because if he holds on until the next morning and the market gaps down at open he's in trouble. He doesn't have the cash (equity funds often carry very small cash balances - 1-2%) to move to that money market account so he has to sell to raise it.

That's why I believe that this has been a "rolling capitulation" rather than a forthright tossing of the towel. There may also be some manipulation involved but the past few days (before Friday) have seen markets around the world crushed. It's pretty difficult to come up with a concept of a group big and wealthy enough to collaborate to crash markets around the world.

In a key sense, the market is acting very rationally. The problem began with an opaque instrument designed to promote a 'social benefit' (bundling loans made by thieves to liars in order that the liars might participate in an 'ownership' society) and was compounded greatly by the development of an even more opaque (and completely unregulated) instrument designed to mask the idiocy inherent in the first.

The governments of the world are now going to turn on the printing presses and "recapitalize" the banks run by the scummy do gooders responsible for a really foreseeable end to their 'best of intentions' derived from the moral relativism and situational ethics which they learned at the very best educational institutions.

The recapitalization plan may work. I'm not sure that it will but it seems worth a try. The problem remains the lying, deceitful whores sitting in the boardrooms, sipping their lattes. If they aren't removed then Citi's federally funded wooden legs still won't support it.

[MarkO]

Charlie, Morgan Stanley, not Microsoft.

I'm suggesting that I would prefer free markets, but that in their absence manipulation is made easier by those who understand the system. I don't need to be protected from either greed or gravity. I need to understand them both. But, it is silly to think that this "financial crisis" is a pure event and that holding a position overnight is some sort of riskless activity. Tell me, how may had the inside information about the government's removal of short restrictions last summer? How many had the inside information about the government's ban on Morgan shorts? No one is manipulating the "entire" market, but it is unquestionable that there is serious manipulation of certain segments and that it is easier when the government helps.

[Mkj]

Obama abused the power a long time ago and we know what the power is, don't we?

So, we're impeaching him over the ACORN.

The calling Kenya thug cousin attacking the government thing was just to make sure his brothers stayed on the CIA payroll. His impeachmeant had nothing to do with the CIA, like a Kennedy plot or something or luciferian powers. It was just Obama cheating to get into the White House, where he was fired.

[Selectservice]

http://elcampeador.wordpress.com/2008/10/07/obama-and-acorn-you-can-run-but-you-can%E2%80%99t-hidethis-could-be-your-next-president-america-arent-you-proud/

[clarice]

ex-dem
In the movie Spartacus, when the Romans catch up with the revolting slaves, they seek out Spartacus to kill him--one by one his men announce ,"I am Spartacus", indicating (a) they are all going to go down with him and (b) killing one man will not kill the movement for freedom.

In the face of the thugocracy that is certain to follow an Obama win--certain because as Barone agrees his campaign and followers have demonstrated an utter contempt for the free speech of his opponents and detractos--I am sardonically saying "leave me alone".

[Porchjane]

Good to get the lucifer update.

[jean]

Rick Thanks.What is worrisome,Huckabee get on TV and insinuates terrorist manipulation of the market.Most hearing this will take him at face value and that type of talk spreads fear.Go check DEALBREAKER.COM .If I understand it correctly the GOV. is about to force companies to buy up more subprime

[Sele]

The luciferians think this is important;

Palin Denies She Abused The power

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/11/palin.investigation/

CNN sells.

[Charlie (Colorado)]

Okay, this will lighten things up.

[Rick Ballard]

Jean,

The gov is making the FMs mop up the mess. It's kind of fitting. They get to handle the Wall Street sewage plant break down as well as their own. At $40 billion per month they can buy every ARM and ALT-A loan made in about thirty months. If they don't pay more than 60-65 cents they could make money doing it.

[jean]

Rick thanks again.This is my last question.If the banks continue to lend 100% loans with no background checks.What is to stop the people who just defaulted on their loans from getting new ones?No one seems to be talking about tightening lending practices.If ACORN and their buddies have any say there may not be tighter lending practices.

[Rick Ballard]

My pencil broke before I finished the calculation - at 65 cents it would take about 20 months.

[Charlie (Colorado)]

Charlie, Morgan Stanley, not Microsoft.

Oh. Duh.

I'm suggesting that I would prefer free markets, but that in their absence manipulation is made easier by those who understand the system.

Y'think?

But, it is silly to think that this "financial crisis" is a pure event and that holding a position overnight is some sort of riskless activity. Tell me, how may had the inside information about the government's removal of short restrictions last summer? How many had the inside information about the government's ban on Morgan shorts?

Um, pretty much everybody?

No one is manipulating the "entire" market, but it is unquestionable that there is serious manipulation of certain segments and that it is easier when the government helps.

Maybe I need more coffee, but I'm still not getting it here Mark. I'll grant that it's unquestionable that someone is manipulating the market, because the government is overtly and explicitly manipulating the market, and calling press conferences to say what they're doing. Your neighbor buying Morgan Stanley didn't need any inside information --- did he really confess to a felony to you? --- and, honestly I can't find a time he could have bought at 15 and sold at 30 since 1998.

Fairy tales often start in one of three ways:

- "once upon a time..."

- "this is no bullshit, when I was in the Service ..."

- "Hey, I got this great tip from an insider, and..."

[boris]

- "I've always been a life long Republican but ..."

[Charlie (Colorado)]

Oh, one point for Jean and Rick: I imagine everyone running a mutual fund is having to sell to raise cash for redemptions, but it's the trading desks at the mutual funds and similar companies that are making the big market-sell orders at the end of the day. There are two reasons to do this, both of them being, in effect, a bet that the market won't go up at the open:

- you have a lot of redemptions that you haven't funded yet; you need to sell enough to pay for them and clear the redemptions at the end of the day, or you need to buy short-term paper to fund them. If you think the market might gap down and you can't buy commercial paper, you have to accept the fire sale.

- you think the market might gap down at the next open, so you sell off at market in order to be in cash at the open. (What are the best positions in this market? Cash, and fetal.")

[Charlie (Colorado)]

There was a guy who approached a publisher about a book he'd written that enumerated all the possible sexual positions: 1608 of them.

The publisher looked sort of puzzled. "I can't imagine there are that many. I mean, there's missionary..."

"Son of a bitch! 1609!"

[Sara (Pal2Pal)]

There is really nothing new in the following link except it says that Rezko's sentencing has been postponed indefinitely. This was new news to me. Did everyone already know this?

Obama fundraiser, convicted of fraud, spills beans...

[Sara (Pal2Pal)]

Maxine Waters Caught Lying About Fannie Mae Ties on 'Real Time'

[Charlie (Colorado)]

Did everyone already know this?

Apparently not.

[glasater]

OK Charlie--I'll see your Batman and Robin and raise you F Troop and real estate dealings.

[Sara (Pal2Pal)]

New York Teachers Want To Campaign For Obama In Classroom

They’re protesting policies requiring them to be “politically neutral” at school.

NEW YORK - The teachers’ union for the nation’s largest public school system accused the city on Friday of banning political campaign buttons and sued to reverse the policy, declaring that free speech rights were violated.

United Federation of Teachers President Randi Weingarten announced at a news conference that a lawsuit had been filed in U.S. District Court in Manhattan to challenge the enforcement of the policy.

“We couldn’t believe it,” said Weingarten, who wore a Barack Obama lapel button. The American Federation of Teachers, including its UFT delegates, voted over the summer to endorse Obama’s presidential candidacy.

[Porchjane]

Well, I just got off the phone with the RNC (who called me for money). I gave them an earful about McCain not hitting hard enough. Apparently Palin has been telling him the same thing and supposedly he's beginning to believe it. So we will see....

[Rick Ballard]

"What is to stop the people who just defaulted on their loans from getting new ones?"

Their FICO score mainly. The personal credit rating services will drop their score beyond the point where any lender will touch them. I'm sure that it will happen, there's always someone who gets around a rule, it just won't happen very often. ARMs and ALT-As can make money and in fact do make money most of the time. Loaning 90-100% to a 32 year old couple with moderately good credit and a good employment record isn't necessarily a sucker bet at all, even if they're going to spend 30% of current income on the payment. The income of a couple of that age will rise rather quickly over the next ten years, at a very modest 4% annual increase in income, the payment will have dropped to less than 25% of gross income in five years.

[Charlie (Colorado)]

An interesting point just came up on Bookworm's blog (which I commend to you all):

If ACORN is successfully inflating Democrat registrations with fraudulent ones, that would be reflected in an increase in relative registrations of D's over R's.

If the relative registration of D's over R's is artificially inflated, that would lead to an artificially large weighting in the pollsters's party membership models; this would tend to mean they would include more D's in their samples (you want your sample to correspond to your idea of what the real electorate will be like), and this would in turn lead to an artificially high poll result for Obama.

Now, observe the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll results on Wednesday: likely voters, Obama over McCain by 2 points --- which is to say, within the margin of error: it's a coin flip whether McCain or Obama is actually leading.

Above and beyond any slanting of the poll samples in themselves, ACORN may have managed to slant the polls significantly by their fraudulent registrations.

If Obama's internal polls are more accurate than the open ones --- something we tend to assume, although I'm not positive I know why, it's just conventional wisdom --- they would then be showing Obama in at least a tight race, and perhaps significantly behind.

What would the best strategy be then? I would suggest it would be to try to convince R voters to stay home by claiming it's all over.

[Porchjane]

Above and beyond any slanting of the poll samples in themselves, ACORN may have managed to slant the polls significantly by their fraudulent registrations.

[snip]

What would the best strategy be then? I would suggest it would be to try to convince R voters to stay home by claiming it's all over.

I am leaning more and more toward this view, Charlie.

Unfortunately it seems to be working.

Re: internal polls, they are considered more accurate because considerably more money and time is spent in trying to weight accurately and sifting for likely voters. And sample sizes are larger. The open polls are done on the cheap, comparatively speaking.

[Elliott]

Reposting draft ad script from other thread (with links and slight changes):

Anncr: Why did Barack Obama belong to a church whose pastor claimed the US bore resposibility for the 9/11 attacks?
Obama: Uh, I, I wasn't in church during, uh, the time that these statements were made.*
Anncr: Why was he comfortable collaborating with radical professor and unrepentant terrorist William Ayers?
Axelrod: Well, I mean, he when, when he went he certainly, he didn't know the history.**
Obama: I assumed that, uh, he had been rehabilitated.***
Anncr: Poor vetting, lack of due diligence. Ignorance and naïveté cited to justify himself.
He said he would sit down with America's enemies: Ahmadinejad, Chavez, Castro and Assad. Will he be prepared? No. Will he have an excuse for failure? He always has.
__________________________
*Video, scroll to :50.
**Video, scroll to :18.
***Audio, scroll a bit past halfway.

[ex-democrat]

got it, C

[kim jane il]

If the relative registration of D's over R's is artificially inflated

Rasmussen's party ID delta is ~6%, and they have Obama up by 7. That's a pretty thin reed you're grasping at chaco.

[Elliott]

What would the best strategy be then? I would suggest it would be to try to convince R voters to stay home by claiming it's all over.

Yes, that seems to be the way of the Axelturfer.

[Charlie (Colorado)]

Got a link, Jane Ill?

[Charlie (Colorado)]

By the way, are you familiar with the concept of "speaking in the hypothetical"?

[clarice]

Charlie I;ve been saying that for days--of course it slants the weighing of the polls--it also makes the polls less reliable because no one knows how many registered voters are live voters who will turn up and vote or legit registrants who'll be allowed to vote.

How do you calculate into the mix such fraud?

It's another reason why likely voters is a better test provided the screen is a solid one.

[kim jane il]

For polling data released during the week of October 5-11, 2008, the partisan weighting targets used by Rasmussen Reports will be 39.3% Democratic, 33.3% Republican, and 27.4% unaffiliated.

ras link

[Charlie (Colorado)]

By the way, someone in the San Fernando Valley is trying to cast a Sarah Palin lookalike for a porn movie.

See, this is why she terrifies D's: who would want to see a Hillary lookalike porn movie?

[jean]

I have no idea how many changed registration due to "operation chaos",but if you could doom and gloom a group of people into depression it is sure being tried now.From what I gather only a few very angry and I mean on the verge of rioting people support that racist nut job McCain

[bgates]

Reposted from an earlier thread:
McCain is proposing callously denying recent homeowners the vast riches they expected to obtain by buying a house.
We're [proposing] buying back the original mortgage at the original value and then giving [the homeowner] the new mortgages" at current values and more affordable interest rates
That plan does nothing but make the banks whole for their bad decisions and saves the homeowners from the terms of the mortgages they agreed to, and it's not enough. Someone selling one of these houses at "current values" might not make any money at all; and even if there is appreciation it will be from the new, lower "current value". The people who bought these houses expected more.
I propose that the government save the banks, give the occupants mortgage rates equal to what they had been paying for their studio apartments before they bought the golf course properties, and guarantee the expected appreciation rate based on the original purchase price. Originally I had said the expected rate could be determined regionally, but on further reflection it would involve less government red tape to have an honor system. Here's how it would work:
1) young go-getter notices houses that were selling for $85k in 2001 fetching $420k by 2006, and buys
2) in completely unexpected development, the steady growth does not continue, and price crashes to $240k by 2008.
3) McCain generously gives bank $180k plus $20k for pain and suffering endured due to its lack of business acumen. Homeowner given $240k mortgage which must be paid off every month unless homeowner can produce note from mother saying he wasn't feeling well.
4) Homeowner wishes to sell in 2010, but stagnant "market" sets "market value" at $220k. I propose the government should ask the homeowner how much he expected to make - based on the original purchase - and pay the difference. For instance, if the homeowner expected a 25% return, we would owe him
420[purchase]*125%**4[appreciation] - 220[sale] = $805,000.

It's only fair.

[Sara (Pal2Pal)]

MataHarley at Flopping Aces has been the go-to person on the Tasergate investigations. She does a wrap-up that is well worth the read.

They’re protesting policies requiring them to be “politically neutral” at school.

NEW YORK - The teachers’ union for the nation’s largest public school system accused the city on Friday of banning political campaign buttons and sued to reverse the policy, declaring that free speech rights were violated.

United Federation of Teachers President Randi Weingarten announced at a news conference that a lawsuit had been filed in U.S. District Court in Manhattan to challenge the enforcement of the policy.

“We couldn’t believe it,” said Weingarten, who wore a Barack Obama lapel button. The American Federation of Teachers, including its UFT delegates, voted over the summer to endorse Obama’s presidential candidacy.

[Sara (Pal2Pal)]

Oops sorry.

Here is the link.

Trooper’gate witchhunt finale: $100K cost to taxpayers… no $5000 fine? No impeachment??

[Charlie (Colorado)]

Thanks, KJI. What that means is that if the sample is only skewed a few percent, though, that would put the difference back into coin-flip territory.

[StrawmanCometh]

I dunno, Johnny Mac tells his crowd the zero is a "decent person and a person that you do not have to be scared of as president of the United States." To me, this reads like a capitulation.
OTOH, Nifong put up his hope-a-dope sign yesterday.

[clarice]

Yes, it would charlie and it fits a pattern in recent elections where many pollsters produce stuff that's virtually worthless until the last hours of a campaign (or in Zogby's case after the ballots began to be counted)

[jean]

Zogby O48--M 44

[Charlie (Colorado)]

It's another reason why likely voters is a better test provided the screen is a solid one.

Actually, it would skew the likely voters poll by nearly as much as the registered voters poll --- actually, exactly as much if the "likely" screen assumes D's and R's are equally likely to vote, and even more if the "likely" screen assumes D's are more likely to vote.

[clarice]

Strawman, pardon me for offering up a dissenting voice on McCain's "capitulation". Like Chaco, I assume he knows more than we do and his internals told him the muddle was buying the lynch mob narrative of the despicably lying media and offered up a sop to put a quick halt to that.

[bgates]

"What is to stop the people who just defaulted on their loans from getting new ones?"

Their FICO score mainly.
FICO?? What is that, "Funds Is f' Caucasians Only"? I thought we lived in a democracy. I think if Reverend Jackson or Minister Sharpton can get a few busloads of 120-150 people each willing to vouch for each other, that should be all the credit you need for any bank in America.

Somehow when it's a Republican not checking the box on the absentee ballot, you're willing to give him another chance, but if somebody else didn't put the mortgage check in the mailbox for a couple dozen months you want to hang that mistake on him for the rest of his life.

[clarice]

charlie-Of course you're right.

[kim jane il]

Ras historically has a small Republican bias on the order of ~1 pct.

And national polls mean squat. The game is electoral votes.

That's how Obama beat Clinton, by ignoring national numbers and concentrating on the ground game/delegate counts. It's also where Obama spent his money over the summer while McCain spent his on attack ads. The effect of the attack ads has dwindled, but the ground operation will be evident on election day.

Two different strategies, and it's looking like Obama had better judgment on that metric.

[clarice]

Dennis Sevakis proposes at AT today that the govt give $200K to every mortgage holder who's not defaulting and let the market take it from there.

[Charlie (Colorado)]

Palin's lawyers wrote a pretty interesting 4 page response to the 263 page Branchflower report.

Among other things, the citation Branchflower uses for the "abuse of power" wording is out of context, as the statute is specifically about abuse of power for financial gain.

[Sara (Pal2Pal)]

Charlie: I don't know if a 20 year old story is helpful, but in '88 I was in charge of polling in the state of Maryland. In our own District, the registration was 11 to 1 Dem to Rep. My boss, a Rep. was winning by margins of 75% even in such a heavily Dem. district. When we did Bush-Quayle polling internally, we were getting about 60% for them in this same Dem. district. When we tried to get the National campaign to send some resources, they said no because their polls were showing almost an exact flip flop of our 60% number for Bush-Quayle due to the heavy weighting because of that 11 to 1 registration.

On election night, Maryland went for Bush-Quayle and National acted like this was one of the biggest shocks of the entire campaign. The Media was even more shocked and so were the professional pollsters. There was a lot of "we told you so" going on and we were feeling pretty pleased with ourselves that we'd gotten it right.

[bgates]

Sara - Tomorrow's news today:

Spending Like a Sailor in Anchorage:
Alaska Government Spends $100k Taxpayer Money, Gets No Results
Anchorage - After spending months and over $100,000, the state government of Alaska (whose chief executive Republican Sarah Palin is running for Vice President) has released a completely inconclusive report. Coming on the heels of the bailout bill in Washington championed by Republican President Bush, and in the face of ongoing criminal investigations in the state government of Illinois, where the first Republican President Abraham Lincoln began his career, many are asking whether Republicans can be trusted with anything.

[bgates]

Dennis Sevakis proposes at AT today that the govt give $200K to every mortgage holder who's not defaulting
Doesn't McCain have any idea of the number of Mexican citizens who rent?

[Charlie (Colorado)]

And national polls mean squat. The game is electoral votes.

Of course, everything you're saying would be consistent with someone trying to suppress Republican votes, too.

But on the electoral votes thing, the same reasoning applies. Electoral vote counts are sensitive to small changes in the state polls, and the high electoral ote counts for Obama are including leaners. but if the models have too many democrat voters, the leaners might be modeled as leaning a lot further than the results will come out.

(PS. got a cite on Rasmussen leaning R? I can't offfhand remember any polls that turned out to over-predict Republican votes in the final poll.)

[jean]

Could the media be hyping the Obama advantage knowing the polls will tighten?Doesn't this give them a better story?

[Charlie (Colorado)]

Sara, it's certainly at least interesting, and btw thanks for explaining why the convention wisdom is the conventional wisdom. I've never been directly involved with that kind of polling.

[Charlie (Colorado)]

Oh, and I need to go write some pay copy, so I'll be missing for a while here.

[Crassus]

"I am Spartacus", indicating (a) they are all going to go down with him and (b) killing one man will not kill the movement for freedom."

So after the Third Servile War the Romans killed them all.A better line would be,"He's Spartacus".
That bastard Pompey got all the credit.

[DrJ]

FICO is a rating by Fair Isaac Corp; they are in San Rafael, CA. Commonly-used credit rating.

[clarice]

My understanding is that nationally the difference between pparty registrations has never been more than 4%. Is that wrong?

[Coco]

CentralCal

I noticed that pattern last week on the Google Finance graphs ... looks like manipulators buy as soon as the markets open when the prices are low ... after lots of buying the prices move up between midday and midafternoon EST As soon as the prices are up they start selling off and by end of day they've sold so much the prices are back down again. The next morning the cycle starts again

some people are making huge fortunes

[Elliott]

Rasmussen was way off in 2000, Charlie.

[bunky]

The thing that causes me to be hesitant about the polls being completely wrong is 2006. A few blogs insisted over and over the polls favoring the D's were totally missing Republican strength and support due to the sample weighting. It ended up, well you know....

[Elliott]

Crassus,

Watch out for the Parthians.

[RichatUF]

Rick-

It's pretty difficult to come up with a concept of a group big and wealthy enough to collaborate to crash markets around the world.

Long Term Capital Management

[Barbara]

And national polls mean squat. The game is electoral votes.

True enough, but take a look at the race state by state and apply the same axiom that Charlie stated so well above. Then go back and take a look at the democrat primaries.

I remember all those races that Obama planned to win as his momentum against Hillary rose to double digits in most states. That all changed after the Rev. Wright video. Remember: "nah, nah, nah...not God Bless America; God da_n America!"? That one.

Old Barry couldn't buy a win after that. The only thing that saved his sorry hide was the way the dems had set up the rules so that he could get a portion of the delegates regardless of the fact that Hillary trounced him in every state but Oregon.

Just sayin'.

[M. Simon]

elcampeador.wordpress.com/2008/10/07/obama-and-acorn

[clarice]

In 2004 Jay Cost said the polls were off (horserace blog); In 2006 he made no predictions--I believe he said it was too hard to call. What I do remember is that he noted how good state polling is too expensive for most candidates and generally we haven't as good track records for them as we do for national polling.

BTW this was just thrown over my transom --In case anyone can figure out how credible it is..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gA6_k3NtXZs

[Sara (Pal2Pal)]

For those of you who know and love Betsy Newmark's "Betsy's Page," there is sad news. Her father died last night.

My father

[bunky]

Pretty pathetic how the one dude at Powerline just despises Palin.

[Sara (Pal2Pal)]

McCain Campaigns In Iowa-- Internals Show a Tight Race

Iowa? Real Clear Politics has John McCain down by an average of 11.8 polling points to Obama. However, via FOX News, the McCain campaign says the numbers are much lower-- in the low single digits.

[Barbara]

What do you all make of the decision by the 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals to set aside a federal judge's order to require that Ohio's Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (democrat) "...institute the means to verify voter registration information and make it available to Ohio's 88 county election boards..."?

Appeals Court Sides With Ohio Secretary of State

Do we now say, "Bye, bye" to Ohio?

[kim]

Maybe it is just giving them enough rope to hang themselves.
==================================

[RichatUF]

Barbara-

Win or lose Ohio goes to the courts. I was hoping that a replay of FL in 2000 or WA in 2004 wasn't going to happen.

It could still be fought at the county level perhaps, but its not looking good. I'd still hold out hope that Obama won't carry the state for a poorly as he did there in the primary and a number of union members skeptical of "hope and change" and "green collar jobs".

[Porchjane]

If McCain is spending valuable time in Iowa at all at this late date, then the internals must be looking pretty good there.

[Rick Ballard]

"Do we now say, "Bye, bye" to Ohio?"

Why should we? McCain is running this campaign for the Muddle, not for the "base", a segment of which justifiably distrusts and dislikes him. That doesn't mean they won't vote for him or, to be more precise, vote against the commie.

I don't think the Muddle in Ohio will go commie. I could be wrong but the Muddle can shift pretty quickly - which is why McCain is still petting Obama on the head rather than kicking him in the ass. He knows better than to be "mean" - the Muddle really ties itself in a knot over mean.

[clarice]

The test in Ohio is whether or not the disputed ballots will be segregated until they can be challenged after the Sec of State implements the checking system.