Ignore all polls. For a reason why read this from NRO media blog
Does Newsweek Really Stand By This Poll?
Dear friends at Newsweek...
Just to clarify...
You have McCain winning Republicans, 89 to 7. You have Obama winning Democrats, 91 to 5. (I'm a bit skeptical, but for now, for the sake of argument, I'll accept your assertion that PUMAs are extinct.) You have McCain winning independents by 2 percent, 45 to 43.
And this adds up to an 11-percent Obama lead in your latest poll.
We are to believe that McCain is losing among women by 9 percent, but losing among men by 14 percent.
We are to believe that the Hillary voters are lining up behind Obama, 88 percent to 7 percent.
We are to believe Obama is winning 18 to 34-year-olds by 10 percent, but he is winning 45 to 64-year-olds by 16 percent.
We are to believe the white vote is just about even, 46 percent for Obama, 47 percent for McCain.
And we are to believe the electorate in November will be 27 percent Republican, 40 percent Democrat, and 30 percent Independent.
If the over/under on the partisan breakdown on Election Day is 13 percent, I'd take the under. I wonder if anybody in Vegas would take that wager...
Thank you, Speaker Pelosi, for this preview of life if there's a President Obama:
WASHINGTON (AP) - After consulting with Barack Obama, Democratic leaders are likely to call Congress back to work after the election in hopes of passing legislation that would include extended jobless benefits, money for food stamps and possibly a tax rebate, officials said Saturday.
The bill's total cost could reach $150 billion, these officials said.
The officials stressed that no final decisions have been made. They spoke on condition of anonymity, saying they did not want to pre-empt a formal announcement. House Democrats have announced plans for an economic forum on Monday "to help Congress develop an economic recovery plan that focuses on creating jobs and strengthening our economy."
Expect big-governemtn goodies — money for nothing and your socialism for "free" — until a Repblican is looked to try to undo it all in four.
Thanks to this preview, Americans should be taking a second look. Will they? Wake up, America. Good morning. There's still an election going on. Contrary to Obama-Pelosi-Reid posturing, it ain't over yet.
Grasping at straws: birth certificate, Odinga, etc.
The reason? Unless someone reminds them of it every four years in clear and compelling language, the muddle doesn't understand the value of small government, liberty, low taxes on employers, muscular defense, and judges with unbiased interpretations of the Constitution. McCain can't explain these things very well to the muddle. He has only a tenuous grasp on them himself and gets muddled explaining them (the opposite of Reagan-great-communicator.) All that's left is to grasp at straws.
This is the problem with the country. The majority of us either don't get the things on that list or understand them and despise them.
Isn't it a little early in the morning to be condescending, Don? Or does that just arise naturally as your feet hit the floor?
And don't be congratulating yourself early there either. That anger that the media and Obama is noticing hasn't the slightest tint of racism to it; that is the energy of populism and it's been fired by a condescending media.
====================================
I will cut investments in unproven missile defense systems...
...I will not weaponize space...
...I will slow development of future combat systems...
...and I will institute an independent "Defense Priorities Board" to ensure the quadrennial defense review is not used to justify unnecessary spending...
...I will set a goal of a world without nuclear weapons...
...and to seek that goal, I will not develop nuclear weapons...
...I will seek a global ban on the production of fissile material...
...and I will negotiate with Russia to take our ICBMs off hair-trigger alert...
...and to achieve deep cuts in our nuclear arsenals...
Unless someone reminds them of it every four years in clear and compelling language, the muddle doesn't understand the value of small government, liberty, low taxes on employers, muscular defense, and judges with unbiased interpretations of the Constitution.
I can't really agree with that.
The muddle understands the value of it. It's just that there are competing voices in the heads and hearts of the muddle.
The muddle says:
On the one hand, I want small government. On the other hand, the health care system in this country is pretty screwy.
On the one hand, I want a muscular defense. On the other hand, I'm not sure what I'm willing to see Americans die for.
On the one hand, screw Europe. On the other hand, it sure would be nice to not hear about how much Europe hates us all the time.
I think McCain's best way is to explain Obama simply cannot squeeze all of this out of the few people making $250,000+/year, especially when those people have just seen their retirement plans fizzle.
McCain needs to explain that Europe gets mad at us, but depends on us. He needs to re-explain that Europe does not want to send more troops to Afghanistan- in fact NATO is supposed to be doing a lot more there now.
McCain needs to re-explain his family tax exemption. He wants to give tax relief for all families, to let them determine how they want to spend it. Whether they have two working parents or one stay at home parent, a higher exemption allows people to keep the money they need to raise their children. It isn't a tax payer-supported plan given to help the government raise other people's kids with universal pre-school.
Finally, he needs to get Obama on the nuts and bolts of his medical plan. Obama says he's going to lower premiums for everyone, and require insurance companies to take everyone. He can't do it.
Obama appeals to the muddle as long as his rhetoric- which indeed occupies all ends of the spectrum- goes unchallenged.
Oh, and other weak Obama points (IMHO):
Drivers licenses (and healthcare?) for illegal aliens
Union card-check
The college $4,000 credit for 100 hours work plan
McCain also needs to point out to Obama, when Obama goes off on the corporate taxes, that just as credit card companies can go to Delaware to get the most favorable regulatory and tax laws, international corporations can head off to Dubai.
So let's say the fix is in, and through a combination of trickery and brainwashing, Obama is in charge. Is he going to try to take America towards socialism? What would socialism look like, American style? Will his comrades Nancy Pilosi try to fight him, or will they try to aid and abet? What could Obama really do to really take power here, if he and his allies were willing to stop at nothing? Just trying to picture a worse case scenario.
I suppose the first step is to try to get your hooks into the military.
Let's have three things happen this week:
1. A stupendous stock market rally.
2. An Obama sex scandal.
3. Some candid comments from Rev's Wright and/or Farrakhan.
Speaking of, EU Ref has a piece up (which I got just now from yesterday's open thread) that is all over the Eu knowing about the inadequacies and issues of "fail value" accounting and "mark to market."
As previewed last night, we have discovered cast-iron evidence that the EU commission has known for at least a year that there have been disastrous "shortcomings" in its system of financial regulation. This system includes the measures for the application of the "mark to market" rules which lie at the heart of the current banking crisis.
They're off, hair on fire, about the EU hiding it and so forth and so on.
I'd just like to note that I've been talking with my brother the accountant about these issues since Sarbanes-Oxley passed, and that the Basel accounting reform negotiations have only been secret to the extent that the only thing that's harder to get covered in the MSM than progress in Iraq is a technical and diplomatic negotiation of accounting standards.
"I've been talking with my brother the accountant about these issues since Sarbanes-Oxley passed, and that the Basel accounting reform negotiations have only been secret to the extent that the only thing that's harder to get covered in the MSM"
The problem is that the banking system has crashed partly because of these issues which nobody seems to have corrected.
If it was known,they have been running the system with the warning light on.
I have enjoyed watching the HGTV shows "House Hunters," and "House Hunters International" for the last year. It amazes me how these couples can afford what they ultimately buy. You'll hear them say our price point is $550 to $600,000 and then you hear the husband has a good job, maybe a loan officer or a firefighter and the wife is a stay-at-home Mom with 2 kids and the dogs. A $600,000 home is going to carry a payment of between $4500 and $6000 a mo. I just don't see how these single earner families can afford those kind of payments. I don't know any 2 worker families that can handle those types of payments unless they are very well off to begin with. Certainly no one in the military could handle payments that high and the average middle class worker, even those with good jobs very rarely make over $100,000 in salary. By the time you deduct taxes, insurance and average monthly expenses for a family of four for food, clothing and transportation, I don't see where the housepayment can come from.
We struggled as a military family with my additional salary to buy an 1800 sq. ft. $36,500 home. That home is now selling for $550,000 30 years later and yet it is in the same tract of average homes that weren't all that well-built to begin with and the neighborhood has become one of junk cars parked all up and down the street and shows no pride of ownership on the street. The smaller homes two blocks away are now designated Sec. 8 housing. I wouldn't buy that house again even if it was still under $100,000, yet there must be couples struggling to make $5000 a mo. payments to live in it, because it is one of the cheaper neighborhoods as far as real estate goes.
Couples are forced to try to buy into these overpriced homes and to struggle because the only alternative is to rent and rents are now out of sight with $1600 mo. for a 1 BR apt. not unusual and for a house suitable for raising kids, the rent will equal those high house payments, if you can find one that will allow kids and/or pets.
I have 3 others here with me who are working and helping me pay the high monthly payments, when I'd far rather live alone, but can't afford to. My best friend is now sharing her home with 2 sons, a d-i-l, and 5 grandchildren because neither she, nor they can afford to live alone. My d-i-l works with a woman who is in her 60s who is now sharing her home with 9 others in her family because they can't find a place they can afford.
If this crash brings down housing prices to some sane level, it seems it cannot be all bad.
So what is up with PA. All polls continue to show a double-digit lead for The One. Yet, McCain continues to hit it relatively hard, even more so that OH and FL. Sarah dropping the puck at a Flyers game. Even The One is all over Philly this w/e.
Maybe one last gasp considering it was fairly close prior to the global financial crisis that Obama was able to pin on lack of regulation.
Or, are the internal polls on both sides showing this is a lot closer than the polls indicate.
FWIW an old friend emailed out of the blue this past week. He is a Dem in Western PA (Butler) and he didn't seem too cheerful about the prospect of an Obama win.
If it was known,they have been running the system with the warning light on.
Or --- and having done international standards work in other contexts, I think it more likely --- they knew, they knew the light was on, and they were unable to react in time.
Gallup has moved from +11 Obama to +7 in the last 3 days. It is now much closer to the Zogby and Rassmussen polls.
Rassmussen partisan differnce still remains positive +6.3 to Dems. It was about even in 2004. If that number turns out to be even on 11/04, McCain will win this thing.
Their decision to stay out of the EU gives them the flexibility to actually do something rather than chatter. As an aside - Norway's expenditure of $55.4 billion is 5.5 times higher (on a per capita basis) than Paulson's proposed $700 billion.
The action by Norway highlights the concluding paragraph of the EU Referendum piece cited by Peter and Charlie:
The very worst of it all, though – apart from the commission's refusal to come clean about its own failures – is that, if we still had a sovereign government, even at this late state we could take corrective action. As it is, we have eight or nine months to wait, by which time the additional damage will be incalculable.
I wonder how much brains it would take for these clowns to choose capitalization of the income stream of an underlying asset as an alternative to "fair market value"? I wish Paulson would step up and set a cap rate as the floor for the proposed purchases. By doing so he would provide the information necessary for the market to function. Even better - it's a "real" value - the cost of shelter.
I can only relay my own personal anecdote, having made phone calls for four hours yesterday for the local Republican committee where I live, in the suburbs outside of Harrisburg. The list I was calling from was all registered voters, not just Republicans, and the response I got was overwhelmingly pro-McCain (well, pro-Palin, mostly) and anti-Obama. Some comments:
"We're voting for McCain, and we sure hope he starts his campaign sometime soon".
"McCain wasn't my first choice, but I'll do anything to see that Obama doesn't get in - how do I volunteer?".
"There's no one in my neighborhood voting for Obama - my street is one McCain sign after another".
Meanwhile, though, the party organization leaves a lot to be desired. The local chairman told me one story that made my heart sink; three or four Hillary supporters showed up one day a while ago and asked about doing a Democrats For McCain demonstration - the chairman kicked it upstairs where the GOP is still trying to figure out if they can "approve" it and get some signs made up for them. Ouch.
Except for the people that have mortgages or home equity improvement loans from the high market and need to sell their homes.
And the owners are walking away and allowing them to be foreclosed and/or declaring bankruptcy. Then those same people are moving in with friends and family.
45,000 foreclosures last week in my area.
Makes no sense, according to Clarice and the JOM worldview, to try to rent the house because those low lifes deserve to be evicted too if the owner gets in trouble with the banks. So, you get 10s of thousands of empty homes and thousands doubling, tripling, 9x up in one home to keep a roof over the heads of children.
Speaking of rope-yarn Sunday, I found a lovely site with animated knot-tying instructions. Still doesn't have he way my Dad taught me to tie a bowline, but it does have a one-handed bowline.
So what is up with PA. All polls continue to show a double-digit lead for The One. Yet, McCain continues to hit it relatively hard, even more so that OH and FL. Sarah dropping the puck at a Flyers game. Even The One is all over Philly this w/e.
I don't know how the Election reporting will be conducted this year. As we can remember from the past is that the East coast starts reporting and it creates a momentum of sorts.
If Pennsylvania comes in for McCain--motivation in the following states/time zones will be generated.
ISTM that rules were going to change for reporting influencing the other time zones but never heard anything definitive.
And the owners are walking away and allowing them to be foreclosed and/or declaring bankruptcy
Most owners want nothing to do with walking away and being foreclosed upon.
That is not an option most homeowners consider.
Makes no sense, according to Clarice and the JOM worldview, to try to rent the house because those low lifes deserve to be evicted too if the owner gets in trouble with the banks.
I am loathe to open up this can of worms, but that isn't what anybody said. What people were saying -what I was saying - is that a third party with no interest (in this case, a sheriff) should be able to force an owner to let someone live in their property.
How about this. Next year, we'll have an extra bedroom. Should the sheriff be able to make me let a homeless man live in my house? It would be a nice thing to do, and how selfish would I have to be to not want to do it?
Makes no sense, according to Clarice and the JOM worldview, to try to rent the house
Makes no sense to us to replace a thousand years of common law and US property law with "ask Sara". I think everyone who has responded to you think the banks would probably be better off renting. I do. I'm just not willing to seize the property by forcing the bank to do with it what I think is best. You, Chavez, and Obama disagree with me on that point.
Most owners want nothing to do with walking away and being foreclosed upon.
That's probably still true, but it's less true for the kinds of poor credit risks who have been given houses and outlandish mortgages lately. I had dinner with a guy last night who was telling me about his last ride home from the airport. The cab driver asked him, "I have this house I bought for $250,000. Now it's only worth $150,000. Do you think it's fair for me to pay the original mortgage?"
Apparently Mike Klonsky is representative of cab drivers, in that they have much more income and much less respect for private property than I had imagined.
Prices are still down but this really is what a market bottom looks like. I found this rather interesting:
The typical monthly mortgage payment that Southland buyers committed themselves to paying was $1,566 last month, down from a $1,642 the previous month, and down from $2,421 a year ago. Adjusted for inflation, the current payment is at its lowest level in more than five years. It is 38.6 percent below its year-ago level and 26.9 percent lower than the spring of 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle.
A $1566 payment implies a $73K annual family income. That's very easy to achieve in a two income family.
From the "Free speech is dissing" Obama article that clarice linked to (where a hotel that put up a M/P sign provoked outrage):
""While a business has the right to display what it chooses, the public has a right to show its contempt for that decision, including boycotting."
How come the left doesn't understand the public's right when the "business" is the Dixie Chicks? The DCs acted like they had a right to their opinion (which they do) but that their fans were somehow infringing the DCs rights when they expressed their own opinion by not buying CDs, not attending concerts, etc.
Fisher, as I noted and cited to Winston last night, in recent elections the exit polls show the party differential has never been higher than 4%--and is generally between 2 and 4%.
I think polling has to be a major scam--say whatever you want months out and then keep adding or subtracting special sauce as you get a better handle on what's actually happening.
Sara, you may choose to salve your injured pride or whatever by mischaracterizing what I said, but you have most certainly--as others have observed--mischaracterized my position which was no more nor less than an explanation of property law with the rationale behind it given. If you want a place where you can play "ain't it awful" -- everyone listens to eachothers' tales of woe and nods in agreement at unreasonable demands that the problem be fixed by ignoring hundreds of years of law based on sound observatons of human behavior-- JOM certainly ain't that place.
The warning light has been on since 2007.One can understand the EUnuch,but what was your Congress doing?
Peter, I appreciate the implied compliment, but I've seen no evidence that our Congresscritters are any smarter than your MPs.
Plus, the point has been to get a co-ordinated interpretation of "fair value accounting" so there's no sudden fleeing of capital from one place to another.
it seems the "race card" trope is in full flower now. WaPo, NYT, Chicago Trib, LA Times are all in unison.......Newsstands have Obama on the cover of time and the controversial photo of Palin on Newsweek. The medium has become the message.
One bozo shouts something dumb at a McCain event and it's all over the news. Multiple lefties call Palin every name in the book and there is a monstrous silence in the media.....
Here in California, many of us won't put McCain stickers on our cars for fear of damage....welcome to the Brave New World....
"Maybe safe to say then if Obama doesn't bring in Philadelphia big time, McCain has a better than 50/50 chance to bring in the Keystone state."
Philly proper will definitely go for Obama very big-time; in 2004 it went 80-20 for Kerry, and Kerry took the state 50.9% to 48.4%. I guess anything near or under 80% in Philly might be ominous for Obama.
I suspect the "race card" thing might tend to skew the polls to Obama --- but I suspect it doesn't skew the actual voting as much. In othe words, I suspect it will tend to exacerbate the "Bradley effect" but not help Obama much.
In 2004 there were also state races elsewhere where the Dem candidates and party were very active and had an interest in big turn outs.
I think this year the Catholic blue collars and middle class have far less interest in backing the ticket--and adding Biden added nothing much to that.
"I think polling has to be a major scam--say whatever you want months out and then keep adding or subtracting special sauce as you get a better handle on what's actually happening."
I agree with Clarice on this. One of the troubling cw's is the humongus increase in Dem registration this year due to the overwhelming enthusiasm for The One. Yep - alot of increased "registrations" alright, a huge percentage of which seems to be fraudulent (due to Acorn).
Everyone go read Mark Steyn and Victor David Hanson at NRO's corner today-one will make you laugh--the other should strengthen
your resolve.
I love them almost as much as Hit!
I am having serious Jane envy today Re:the NR Cruise....
How about this. Next year, we'll have an extra bedroom. Should the sheriff be able to make me let a homeless man live in my house? It would be a nice thing to do, and how selfish would I have to be to not want to do it?
The Sheriff wasn't forcing anyone to rent, he was trying to protect the legitimate renter who paid his rent on time each month from being penalized with eviction and homelessness because the bank was going after the deadbeat owner.
I'm not going to get into this argument again because it is obvious that a forum of high priced lawyers, accountants and tenured academics isn't going to understand what is going on out here in the real world.
Just because someone only earns in the $50-$75,000 a year range, it doesn't make them poor credit risks who are responsible for the sub-prime loans. They are hardworking, multi-earner families struggling to exist in a world where the cheapest house is over $350,000.
When the Realtor and the loan officer told them they too could be part of the American dream of home ownership, convinced them that buying was cheaper than renting because of the tax breaks on home interest, and that they would be earning equity for themselves instead of the landlord, they bought the dream. Millions did. Should they have listened to their Grandparents who said nothing lasts forever and the prices were so over inflated they were bound to crash, yes, of course, but how many had grandparents telling them that as opposed to professionals telling them to get in now or lose out? And speaking of the grandparents, how many are going under now because of reverse mortgages and retirement plans crashing to zero? Were they gaming the system too? When they bought their retirement dream home and expected to have their money last to pay for it, do you think they envisioned having the accounts be near worthless now? Sure, the market and the economy will come back, but get behind even a couple of months when payments are $4000-$5000 a month and then have no job, or no investments to move, what choice are these folks left with? But, of course, they are all just deadbeats and users and deserve it, right?
Here in California, many of us won't put McCain stickers on our cars for fear of damage....welcome to the Brave New World....
Not in my corner of Calif. I guess you missed it the other day when I wrote about my son and I counting over 600 McCain-Palin bumper stickers and over 120 McCain-Palin yard signs.
Speaking of campaign bumper stickers - in my neck of the woods I still see plenty of cars with their "W" stickers still in place! I guess they haven't had much to fear these past 8 years.
Right now I am seeing M/P signs/stickers twice as much as O/B ones. Yet, per usual, our local paper came out for Obama today (it's McClatchy owned, what can I say).
Their editorial is a hoot because it doesn't list one achievement past, present or future for The One - but he will bring change. Pathetic!
****in a world where the cheapest house is over $350,000.****
Ohio is a part of the world. Some houses sell here for a tenth of that. Many many houses are in the $60,000-$100,000 range. A mansion can be had for $350,000.
Consider moving somewhere cheaper. Gas has dropped a dollar a gallon, so the move won't be too costly either.
The Sheriff wasn't forcing anyone to rent, he was trying to protect the legitimate renter who paid his rent on time each month from being penalized with eviction and homelessness because the bank was going after the deadbeat owner.
He would have been though, Sarah. The bank wasn't going after the deadbeat owner anymore. The bank had become the owner.
The sheriff was (as it was first reported) letting people stay in a house when the owner didn't agree to it.
Chaco,
"Peter, I appreciate the implied compliment, but I've seen no evidence that our Congresscritters are any smarter than your MPs."
Things are worse here than you know. Economic matters are an EU Competence,our MPs are not consulted.Gordon Brown had to abide by the Ecofin meeting agreements,then he had to go and ask permission to implement his bailout plan.
The EU is not a state but a new form of government,run by the European Council,the Commission and the bureaucracy.The EU Parliament is a sop to democracy,a talking shop.Westminster simply rubber stamps whatever is handed down from Brussels.
No show of support for anyone but Obama allowed Anywhere!
"PORTLAND, Ore. - Authorities have arrested two men after a Molotov cocktail was thrown at a 4-foot by 8-foot campaign sign for Republican presidential candidate John McCain in a southeast Portland yard."
Lun
Read the entire article, things just get worse. Check out the links in the article to others posting on this subject.
This is so confusing! I regularly see posts on this board proclaiming the right's proficiency in weapons use and an eagerness in employing them against the political opposition.
And now it seems you stand in opposition to such action.
"I think everyone who has responded to you think the banks would probably be better off renting."
I've been kicking that around for a bit and there are a couple of problems with it. The first is that 'banks' don't own the mortgage. Bob the Banker doesn't have any say in the matter once the mortgage has been peddled to Bruce the Investment Banker and Bruce can't fiddle with the terms outlined in the marvelously complex and totally opaque prospectus which he used to peddle his MBS junk to Ingrid the Insurance Pro. Ingrid can't help much either because although she 'owns' a slice of Frank the Flake's foreclosed home she can't really tell if it's the back porch or the first three feet of the driveway. Besides, big fees are being paid to Luke the Loan Servicer (who signed an agreement with Bruce) but there's nothing in the agreement about 'Property Management', about which Luke doesn't know 'siccem' from 'fetch' at any rate.
The second and to me more important point is that inhibiting the market clearance process by renting foreclosures could have a rippling negative effect on the recovery from bottom. Too many renters in a neighborhood kills appreciation. That's a reason why smarter vultures keep their eyes peeled for foreclosures in neighborhoods which are at least ten years old. The return will be much higher for that age neighborhood than it will be for neighborhoods less than five years old.
Another interesting aspect to this is that the residential rental property market is going to get a 10 year boost from the fact that the schlubs who tossed in their keys have locked themselves into being renters for ten years. I would expect that rental rates in desirable areas would pop up substantially due to that fact alone.
PeterUK--Does the lovely Gordon Brown know he needs to cut/comb his hair and not wear suits that are too small? I hope that it's because he's too busy working for you, to notice!
I can't link it because something hinky's going on with my computer but Ace of Spades insists the Obama girlfriend story is true and that the gal is being paid off by some bigtime Chicago pol.
and an eagerness in employing them against the political opposition.
I call bullshit... no conservative or libertarian has an "eagerness" to harm another human being.
But we do believe that we have a responsibility to protect ourselves and our families and we take that responsibility on in an eager and forthright manner. We have chosen this responsibility instead of chosen to be victims.
In the article sited, what were the family to do - just start random firing into the night in hopes of hitting the vandals who had left the scene? Yeah, right.
Of course, a gun could have gone on the chase and held the miscreants at bay til the police arrived... cause guns sure are scary things to be feared...
"Does the lovely Gordon Brown know he needs to cut/comb his hair and not wear suits that are too small? I hope that it's because he's too busy working for you, to notice!"
"Ace of Spades insists the Obama girlfriend story is true and that the gal is being paid off by some bigtime Chicago pol."
Alright, there's one/third of my Monday wish list, now I just need a 1000-point market rally and the honorable Rev Wright exulting about how much white devils will suffer under Obama.
But we do believe that we have a responsibility to protect ourselves and our families and we take that responsibility on in an eager and forthright manner.
Which is why someone should ask Obama whether his completely apolitical and professional DOJ* would seek justice in homicides linked to domestic terrorism where some of the suspected perpetrators have not been prosecuted. Good things can happen when prosecutors don't give up.
_______________________
*State, federal, isn't it all the same to the muddle?
"Two players from the Cuban regime's soccer team defected while in Washington D.C. this weekend for a World Cup qualifying match. As usual, the regime is miffed that it seemingly cannot use the same security methods in the US it uses at home."
Wonder if anyone will still want to risk, not only their lives, but also those of their family and friends to come to a country controlled by Obama?
Gallup and now Hotline/FD have moved in McCain's direction in the last 24-48 hours. The Hotline/FD move of +2 from Saturday just off-set the -2 seen in the Zogby.
It seems as though the w/e has usually favored Obama in the past.
I think it is imperative that McCain knocks a couple more points off these polls (duh!) by this time next week. If he is in the range of 3 to 5 heading into the last two weeks that will have been a successful week.
My thought is if the tracking polls show McCain within 1.5 to 2.5 points going into the election, he has a fighting chance.
The big concern of course is CO. I'm hoping McCain is somehow able to hold the Bush 2004 states with the exception of NM and IA. So it comes down to CO, which I think is the most vunerable of the Bush 2004 group. The strategy of picking up a WI or MN or even PA was nice will it lasted but it is probably gone. Although something about MN... I'm not quite ready to write it off completly.
The Ace-Obama-Girlfriend story is not a direct allegation of infidelity. Rather, the meat of the story is that the woman was whisked away from the Obama campaign and sent to the Caribbean, supposedly on Michelle's command. Ace adds to the story by saying that a Chicago machine bigwig is supporting her down there. We're left to infer infidelity from that. Clever, no?
The Gallup Tracking of Reg. Voters is down from 11 to 7...but the likely voter is closer...
"The first likely voter model is based on Gallup's traditional likely voter assumptions, which determine respondents' likelihood to vote based on how they answer questions about their current voting intention and past voting behavior. According to this model, Obama's advantage over McCain is 50% to 46% in Oct. 9-11 tracking data."
Before heading off to Martinique, Baker was consulting in DC with a fellow named Wambu. Where is Wambu today?
ockquote>CBCmmbers were really open to having a firm like ours raise money for them," said Wambu, now deputy political director for Delaware Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr.'s Democratic presidential campaign. "In many ways, they were overlooked as resources. Businesses hadn't pitched to them."
Hydeparker- if you still lurk here, ACE needs your help
A reporter at a major media organization (not Fox) is sitting on a story that rubbishes the "guy from the neighborhood" claim.
But he's either unwilling to run it himself, as he will basically call Obama a straight-up liar, or else his organization is killing the story by ever-growing demands of proof.
So:
I've been asked to solicit the collective brain trust of the PUMAs for information.
Specifically, if you are in Obama's neighborhood in Chicago, or know someone who is, and know details of the Obama-Ayers relationship, contact me.
To really be helpful you'd have to go on the record, probably, but if you don't want to, blind stuff will help too.
Don't fish me if you're an Obot. I'm not going to give up the details of the story to anyone; I'm going to wait for them to say the key fact.
Hopefully if someone knows what I'm talking about, and can go on the record about it, we can overcome this guy's forbearance (or forbiddance) and get the story out.
But we probably need one more on the record source to do so.
If you guys have anything else, now would be the time to say so.
Coal is really a diamond.
Posted by: teon | October 12, 2008 at 09:51 AM
Needle and Thread Sunday.
Or more properly:
Rope Yarn Sunday.
Posted by: M. Simon | October 12, 2008 at 10:15 AM
Ignore all polls. For a reason why read this from NRO media blog
Does Newsweek Really Stand By This Poll?
Dear friends at Newsweek...
Just to clarify...
You have McCain winning Republicans, 89 to 7. You have Obama winning Democrats, 91 to 5. (I'm a bit skeptical, but for now, for the sake of argument, I'll accept your assertion that PUMAs are extinct.) You have McCain winning independents by 2 percent, 45 to 43.
And this adds up to an 11-percent Obama lead in your latest poll.
We are to believe that McCain is losing among women by 9 percent, but losing among men by 14 percent.
We are to believe that the Hillary voters are lining up behind Obama, 88 percent to 7 percent.
We are to believe Obama is winning 18 to 34-year-olds by 10 percent, but he is winning 45 to 64-year-olds by 16 percent.
We are to believe the white vote is just about even, 46 percent for Obama, 47 percent for McCain.
And we are to believe the electorate in November will be 27 percent Republican, 40 percent Democrat, and 30 percent Independent.
If the over/under on the partisan breakdown on Election Day is 13 percent, I'd take the under. I wonder if anybody in Vegas would take that wager...
10/11 12:20 PM
Posted by: bio mom | October 12, 2008 at 10:16 AM
Stop Global Warming For Free.
Posted by: M. Simon | October 12, 2008 at 10:17 AM
Also from NRO's the corner:
Thank you, Speaker Pelosi, for this preview of life if there's a President Obama:
WASHINGTON (AP) - After consulting with Barack Obama, Democratic leaders are likely to call Congress back to work after the election in hopes of passing legislation that would include extended jobless benefits, money for food stamps and possibly a tax rebate, officials said Saturday.
The bill's total cost could reach $150 billion, these officials said.
The officials stressed that no final decisions have been made. They spoke on condition of anonymity, saying they did not want to pre-empt a formal announcement. House Democrats have announced plans for an economic forum on Monday "to help Congress develop an economic recovery plan that focuses on creating jobs and strengthening our economy."
Expect big-governemtn goodies — money for nothing and your socialism for "free" — until a Repblican is looked to try to undo it all in four.
Thanks to this preview, Americans should be taking a second look. Will they? Wake up, America. Good morning. There's still an election going on. Contrary to Obama-Pelosi-Reid posturing, it ain't over yet.
Posted by: bio mom | October 12, 2008 at 10:19 AM
I apologize to Ballard, Charlie, Kim, Jane and any other person I cursed out.
I will quit adding negativity to this world.
Peace and out!
Posted by: Don | October 12, 2008 at 10:48 AM
How Obamic of you...
Posted by: Soylent Red | October 12, 2008 at 10:58 AM
That's okay, Don, with God's grace you can enjoy a heart attack.
Posted by: lovingnatureisadisease | October 12, 2008 at 11:02 AM
Smelly socks make stinky puppets.
Posted by: boris | October 12, 2008 at 11:06 AM
Grasping at straws: birth certificate, Odinga, etc.
The reason? Unless someone reminds them of it every four years in clear and compelling language, the muddle doesn't understand the value of small government, liberty, low taxes on employers, muscular defense, and judges with unbiased interpretations of the Constitution. McCain can't explain these things very well to the muddle. He has only a tenuous grasp on them himself and gets muddled explaining them (the opposite of Reagan-great-communicator.) All that's left is to grasp at straws.
This is the problem with the country. The majority of us either don't get the things on that list or understand them and despise them.
Posted by: Jim Ryan | October 12, 2008 at 11:37 AM
Isn't it a little early in the morning to be condescending, Don? Or does that just arise naturally as your feet hit the floor?
And don't be congratulating yourself early there either. That anger that the media and Obama is noticing hasn't the slightest tint of racism to it; that is the energy of populism and it's been fired by a condescending media.
====================================
Posted by: kim | October 12, 2008 at 11:49 AM
Thanks to a couple of generations passing through a public education system dominated by Ayers and comrades.
Posted by: boris | October 12, 2008 at 11:49 AM
What happens around here when you "diss" obama by putting up a M/P sign:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/11/AR2008101101465.html?hpid=topnews>Free speech is dissing
Posted by: clarice | October 12, 2008 at 11:56 AM
Christopher Buckley Thanks Man!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: bunky | October 12, 2008 at 12:01 PM
Liz Trotter to the "prissy" left (media), "stop sniveling and grow up."
Posted by: Sara (Pal2Pal) | October 12, 2008 at 12:03 PM
I'm Don and I apologize even more sincerely and profusely than the imposter above.
Posted by: The Genuine Don | October 12, 2008 at 12:03 PM
Barack Obama:
Posted by: Sara (Pal2Pal) | October 12, 2008 at 12:06 PM
I can't really agree with that.
The muddle understands the value of it. It's just that there are competing voices in the heads and hearts of the muddle.
The muddle says:
On the one hand, I want small government. On the other hand, the health care system in this country is pretty screwy.
On the one hand, I want a muscular defense. On the other hand, I'm not sure what I'm willing to see Americans die for.
On the one hand, screw Europe. On the other hand, it sure would be nice to not hear about how much Europe hates us all the time.
I think McCain's best way is to explain Obama simply cannot squeeze all of this out of the few people making $250,000+/year, especially when those people have just seen their retirement plans fizzle.
McCain needs to explain that Europe gets mad at us, but depends on us. He needs to re-explain that Europe does not want to send more troops to Afghanistan- in fact NATO is supposed to be doing a lot more there now.
McCain needs to re-explain his family tax exemption. He wants to give tax relief for all families, to let them determine how they want to spend it. Whether they have two working parents or one stay at home parent, a higher exemption allows people to keep the money they need to raise their children. It isn't a tax payer-supported plan given to help the government raise other people's kids with universal pre-school.
Finally, he needs to get Obama on the nuts and bolts of his medical plan. Obama says he's going to lower premiums for everyone, and require insurance companies to take everyone. He can't do it.
Obama appeals to the muddle as long as his rhetoric- which indeed occupies all ends of the spectrum- goes unchallenged.
Posted by: MayBee | October 12, 2008 at 12:06 PM
Oh, and other weak Obama points (IMHO):
Drivers licenses (and healthcare?) for illegal aliens
Union card-check
The college $4,000 credit for 100 hours work plan
McCain also needs to point out to Obama, when Obama goes off on the corporate taxes, that just as credit card companies can go to Delaware to get the most favorable regulatory and tax laws, international corporations can head off to Dubai.
Posted by: MayBee | October 12, 2008 at 12:16 PM
So let's say the fix is in, and through a combination of trickery and brainwashing, Obama is in charge. Is he going to try to take America towards socialism? What would socialism look like, American style? Will his comrades Nancy Pilosi try to fight him, or will they try to aid and abet? What could Obama really do to really take power here, if he and his allies were willing to stop at nothing? Just trying to picture a worse case scenario.
I suppose the first step is to try to get your hooks into the military.
Posted by: sylvia | October 12, 2008 at 12:25 PM
Let's have three things happen this week:
1. A stupendous stock market rally.
2. An Obama sex scandal.
3. Some candid comments from Rev's Wright and/or Farrakhan.
Bring it!!
Posted by: hrtshpdbox | October 12, 2008 at 12:33 PM
"Just trying to picture a worse case scenario."
Take no counsel of your fears.
Posted by: Charlie (Colorado) | October 12, 2008 at 12:37 PM
Augh.
Speaking of, EU Ref has a piece up (which I got just now from yesterday's open thread) that is all over the Eu knowing about the inadequacies and issues of "fail value" accounting and "mark to market."
They're off, hair on fire, about the EU hiding it and so forth and so on.
I'd just like to note that I've been talking with my brother the accountant about these issues since Sarbanes-Oxley passed, and that the Basel accounting reform negotiations have only been secret to the extent that the only thing that's harder to get covered in the MSM than progress in Iraq is a technical and diplomatic negotiation of accounting standards.
Posted by: Charlie (Colorado) | October 12, 2008 at 12:43 PM
Take no counsel with your fears.
Posted by: M. Simon | October 12, 2008 at 12:44 PM
Um, that should be "fair value" but I may actually like "fail value" better. But here's the link, in any case.
Posted by: Charlie (Colorado) | October 12, 2008 at 12:45 PM
Take no counsel with your fears.
Wanna bet?
Posted by: Charlie (Colorado) | October 12, 2008 at 12:48 PM
Euro loses another 1% vs dollar
Also up 1% vs the Japanese yen.
Posted by: M. Simon | October 12, 2008 at 12:58 PM
"I've been talking with my brother the accountant about these issues since Sarbanes-Oxley passed, and that the Basel accounting reform negotiations have only been secret to the extent that the only thing that's harder to get covered in the MSM"
The problem is that the banking system has crashed partly because of these issues which nobody seems to have corrected.
If it was known,they have been running the system with the warning light on.
Posted by: The Genuine Don | October 12, 2008 at 01:06 PM
I have enjoyed watching the HGTV shows "House Hunters," and "House Hunters International" for the last year. It amazes me how these couples can afford what they ultimately buy. You'll hear them say our price point is $550 to $600,000 and then you hear the husband has a good job, maybe a loan officer or a firefighter and the wife is a stay-at-home Mom with 2 kids and the dogs. A $600,000 home is going to carry a payment of between $4500 and $6000 a mo. I just don't see how these single earner families can afford those kind of payments. I don't know any 2 worker families that can handle those types of payments unless they are very well off to begin with. Certainly no one in the military could handle payments that high and the average middle class worker, even those with good jobs very rarely make over $100,000 in salary. By the time you deduct taxes, insurance and average monthly expenses for a family of four for food, clothing and transportation, I don't see where the housepayment can come from.
We struggled as a military family with my additional salary to buy an 1800 sq. ft. $36,500 home. That home is now selling for $550,000 30 years later and yet it is in the same tract of average homes that weren't all that well-built to begin with and the neighborhood has become one of junk cars parked all up and down the street and shows no pride of ownership on the street. The smaller homes two blocks away are now designated Sec. 8 housing. I wouldn't buy that house again even if it was still under $100,000, yet there must be couples struggling to make $5000 a mo. payments to live in it, because it is one of the cheaper neighborhoods as far as real estate goes.
Couples are forced to try to buy into these overpriced homes and to struggle because the only alternative is to rent and rents are now out of sight with $1600 mo. for a 1 BR apt. not unusual and for a house suitable for raising kids, the rent will equal those high house payments, if you can find one that will allow kids and/or pets.
I have 3 others here with me who are working and helping me pay the high monthly payments, when I'd far rather live alone, but can't afford to. My best friend is now sharing her home with 2 sons, a d-i-l, and 5 grandchildren because neither she, nor they can afford to live alone. My d-i-l works with a woman who is in her 60s who is now sharing her home with 9 others in her family because they can't find a place they can afford.
If this crash brings down housing prices to some sane level, it seems it cannot be all bad.
Posted by: Sara (Pal2Pal) | October 12, 2008 at 01:07 PM
Except for the people that have mortgages or home equity improvement loans from the high market and need to sell their homes.
A you know, your mortgage payments don't go down with the market.
Posted by: MayBee | October 12, 2008 at 01:15 PM
*** PENNSYLVANIA STORY ***
So what is up with PA. All polls continue to show a double-digit lead for The One. Yet, McCain continues to hit it relatively hard, even more so that OH and FL. Sarah dropping the puck at a Flyers game. Even The One is all over Philly this w/e.
Maybe one last gasp considering it was fairly close prior to the global financial crisis that Obama was able to pin on lack of regulation.
Or, are the internal polls on both sides showing this is a lot closer than the polls indicate.
Or,
Posted by: Fisher | October 12, 2008 at 01:17 PM
Wish I knew the answer to that, Fisher.
FWIW an old friend emailed out of the blue this past week. He is a Dem in Western PA (Butler) and he didn't seem too cheerful about the prospect of an Obama win.
Posted by: Porchjane | October 12, 2008 at 01:22 PM
If it was known,they have been running the system with the warning light on.
Or --- and having done international standards work in other contexts, I think it more likely --- they knew, they knew the light was on, and they were unable to react in time.
Posted by: Charlie (Colorado) | October 12, 2008 at 01:27 PM
*** MOVING TOWARD STRIKING DISTANCE ***
Gallup has moved from +11 Obama to +7 in the last 3 days. It is now much closer to the Zogby and Rassmussen polls.
Rassmussen partisan differnce still remains positive +6.3 to Dems. It was about even in 2004. If that number turns out to be even on 11/04, McCain will win this thing.
Posted by: Fisher | October 12, 2008 at 01:31 PM
Norway Applies Paulson Plan
Their decision to stay out of the EU gives them the flexibility to actually do something rather than chatter. As an aside - Norway's expenditure of $55.4 billion is 5.5 times higher (on a per capita basis) than Paulson's proposed $700 billion.
The action by Norway highlights the concluding paragraph of the EU Referendum piece cited by Peter and Charlie:
I wonder how much brains it would take for these clowns to choose capitalization of the income stream of an underlying asset as an alternative to "fair market value"? I wish Paulson would step up and set a cap rate as the floor for the proposed purchases. By doing so he would provide the information necessary for the market to function. Even better - it's a "real" value - the cost of shelter.
Posted by: Rick Ballard | October 12, 2008 at 01:31 PM
"So what is up with PA."
I can only relay my own personal anecdote, having made phone calls for four hours yesterday for the local Republican committee where I live, in the suburbs outside of Harrisburg. The list I was calling from was all registered voters, not just Republicans, and the response I got was overwhelmingly pro-McCain (well, pro-Palin, mostly) and anti-Obama. Some comments:
"We're voting for McCain, and we sure hope he starts his campaign sometime soon".
"McCain wasn't my first choice, but I'll do anything to see that Obama doesn't get in - how do I volunteer?".
"There's no one in my neighborhood voting for Obama - my street is one McCain sign after another".
Meanwhile, though, the party organization leaves a lot to be desired. The local chairman told me one story that made my heart sink; three or four Hillary supporters showed up one day a while ago and asked about doing a Democrats For McCain demonstration - the chairman kicked it upstairs where the GOP is still trying to figure out if they can "approve" it and get some signs made up for them. Ouch.
Posted by: hrtshpdbox | October 12, 2008 at 01:34 PM
Except for the people that have mortgages or home equity improvement loans from the high market and need to sell their homes.
And the owners are walking away and allowing them to be foreclosed and/or declaring bankruptcy. Then those same people are moving in with friends and family.
45,000 foreclosures last week in my area.
Makes no sense, according to Clarice and the JOM worldview, to try to rent the house because those low lifes deserve to be evicted too if the owner gets in trouble with the banks. So, you get 10s of thousands of empty homes and thousands doubling, tripling, 9x up in one home to keep a roof over the heads of children.
Posted by: Sara (Pal2Pal) | October 12, 2008 at 01:35 PM
Speaking of rope-yarn Sunday, I found a lovely site with animated knot-tying instructions. Still doesn't have he way my Dad taught me to tie a bowline, but it does have a one-handed bowline.
Posted by: Charlie (Colorado) | October 12, 2008 at 01:37 PM
*** PENNSYLVANIA STORY ***
So what is up with PA. All polls continue to show a double-digit lead for The One. Yet, McCain continues to hit it relatively hard, even more so that OH and FL. Sarah dropping the puck at a Flyers game. Even The One is all over Philly this w/e.
I don't know how the Election reporting will be conducted this year. As we can remember from the past is that the East coast starts reporting and it creates a momentum of sorts.
If Pennsylvania comes in for McCain--motivation in the following states/time zones will be generated.
ISTM that rules were going to change for reporting influencing the other time zones but never heard anything definitive.
Posted by: glasater | October 12, 2008 at 01:37 PM
Most owners want nothing to do with walking away and being foreclosed upon.
That is not an option most homeowners consider.
I am loathe to open up this can of worms, but that isn't what anybody said. What people were saying -what I was saying - is that a third party with no interest (in this case, a sheriff) should be able to force an owner to let someone live in their property.
How about this. Next year, we'll have an extra bedroom. Should the sheriff be able to make me let a homeless man live in my house? It would be a nice thing to do, and how selfish would I have to be to not want to do it?
Posted by: MayBee | October 12, 2008 at 01:45 PM
Chaco, do you have a link for the knot-tying site?
Posted by: Caro | October 12, 2008 at 01:45 PM
Makes no sense, according to Clarice and the JOM worldview, to try to rent the house
Makes no sense to us to replace a thousand years of common law and US property law with "ask Sara". I think everyone who has responded to you think the banks would probably be better off renting. I do. I'm just not willing to seize the property by forcing the bank to do with it what I think is best. You, Chavez, and Obama disagree with me on that point.
Posted by: bgates | October 12, 2008 at 01:50 PM
Most owners want nothing to do with walking away and being foreclosed upon.
That's probably still true, but it's less true for the kinds of poor credit risks who have been given houses and outlandish mortgages lately. I had dinner with a guy last night who was telling me about his last ride home from the airport. The cab driver asked him, "I have this house I bought for $250,000. Now it's only worth $150,000. Do you think it's fair for me to pay the original mortgage?"
Apparently Mike Klonsky is representative of cab drivers, in that they have much more income and much less respect for private property than I had imagined.
Posted by: bgates | October 12, 2008 at 01:54 PM
SoCal YOY Home Sales Up For Second Month
Prices are still down but this really is what a market bottom looks like. I found this rather interesting:
A $1566 payment implies a $73K annual family income. That's very easy to achieve in a two income family.
Posted by: Rick Ballard | October 12, 2008 at 01:55 PM
*** PENNSYLVANIA cont'd ***
Maybe safe to say then if Obama doesn't bring in Philadelphia big time, McCain has a better than 50/50 chance to bring in the Keystone state.
Posted by: Fisher | October 12, 2008 at 02:02 PM
From the "Free speech is dissing" Obama article that clarice linked to (where a hotel that put up a M/P sign provoked outrage):
""While a business has the right to display what it chooses, the public has a right to show its contempt for that decision, including boycotting."
How come the left doesn't understand the public's right when the "business" is the Dixie Chicks? The DCs acted like they had a right to their opinion (which they do) but that their fans were somehow infringing the DCs rights when they expressed their own opinion by not buying CDs, not attending concerts, etc.
Posted by: PD | October 12, 2008 at 02:05 PM
"they knew, they knew the light was on, and they were unable to react in time."
The warning light has been on since 2007.One can understand the EUnuch,but what was your Congress doing?
Posted by: PeterUK | October 12, 2008 at 02:13 PM
Fisher, as I noted and cited to Winston last night, in recent elections the exit polls show the party differential has never been higher than 4%--and is generally between 2 and 4%.
I think polling has to be a major scam--say whatever you want months out and then keep adding or subtracting special sauce as you get a better handle on what's actually happening.
Sara, you may choose to salve your injured pride or whatever by mischaracterizing what I said, but you have most certainly--as others have observed--mischaracterized my position which was no more nor less than an explanation of property law with the rationale behind it given. If you want a place where you can play "ain't it awful" -- everyone listens to eachothers' tales of woe and nods in agreement at unreasonable demands that the problem be fixed by ignoring hundreds of years of law based on sound observatons of human behavior-- JOM certainly ain't that place.
Posted by: clarice | October 12, 2008 at 02:16 PM
Chaco, do you have a link for the knot-tying site?
Dammit, I thought I'd put it in the original post.
Here it is: Animated Knots by Grog
Posted by: Charlie (Colorado) | October 12, 2008 at 02:19 PM
Here it is
My Cub Scout Roland thanks you.
Posted by: Jim Ryan | October 12, 2008 at 02:21 PM
The warning light has been on since 2007.One can understand the EUnuch,but what was your Congress doing?
Peter, I appreciate the implied compliment, but I've seen no evidence that our Congresscritters are any smarter than your MPs.
Plus, the point has been to get a co-ordinated interpretation of "fair value accounting" so there's no sudden fleeing of capital from one place to another.
Posted by: Charlie (Colorado) | October 12, 2008 at 02:24 PM
Tell him to learn the one-handed bowline. It could save his ass someday.
Posted by: Charlie (Colorado) | October 12, 2008 at 02:25 PM
it seems the "race card" trope is in full flower now. WaPo, NYT, Chicago Trib, LA Times are all in unison.......Newsstands have Obama on the cover of time and the controversial photo of Palin on Newsweek. The medium has become the message.
One bozo shouts something dumb at a McCain event and it's all over the news. Multiple lefties call Palin every name in the book and there is a monstrous silence in the media.....
Here in California, many of us won't put McCain stickers on our cars for fear of damage....welcome to the Brave New World....
Posted by: matt | October 12, 2008 at 02:27 PM
"Maybe safe to say then if Obama doesn't bring in Philadelphia big time, McCain has a better than 50/50 chance to bring in the Keystone state."
Philly proper will definitely go for Obama very big-time; in 2004 it went 80-20 for Kerry, and Kerry took the state 50.9% to 48.4%. I guess anything near or under 80% in Philly might be ominous for Obama.
Posted by: hrtshpdbox | October 12, 2008 at 02:29 PM
I suspect the "race card" thing might tend to skew the polls to Obama --- but I suspect it doesn't skew the actual voting as much. In othe words, I suspect it will tend to exacerbate the "Bradley effect" but not help Obama much.
Posted by: Charlie (Colorado) | October 12, 2008 at 02:32 PM
Except for the people that have mortgages or home equity improvement loans
Home equity loans were, and are, a stupid idea.
Posted by: Pofarmer | October 12, 2008 at 02:32 PM
In 2004 there were also state races elsewhere where the Dem candidates and party were very active and had an interest in big turn outs.
I think this year the Catholic blue collars and middle class have far less interest in backing the ticket--and adding Biden added nothing much to that.
Posted by: clarice | October 12, 2008 at 02:33 PM
"I think polling has to be a major scam--say whatever you want months out and then keep adding or subtracting special sauce as you get a better handle on what's actually happening."
I agree with Clarice on this. One of the troubling cw's is the humongus increase in Dem registration this year due to the overwhelming enthusiasm for The One. Yep - alot of increased "registrations" alright, a huge percentage of which seems to be fraudulent (due to Acorn).
Posted by: centralcal | October 12, 2008 at 02:35 PM
Everyone go read Mark Steyn and Victor David Hanson at NRO's corner today-one will make you laugh--the other should strengthen
your resolve.
I love them almost as much as Hit!
I am having serious Jane envy today Re:the NR Cruise....
Posted by: glenda waggoner | October 12, 2008 at 02:36 PM
The term ‘benefit’ is very broadly defined, and includes anything that is to the person’s advantage or personal self-interest.”
By this definition, legislators that voted for the "Clean Air Act" would be in violation of this ethics act.
Posted by: Neo | October 12, 2008 at 02:39 PM
How about this. Next year, we'll have an extra bedroom. Should the sheriff be able to make me let a homeless man live in my house? It would be a nice thing to do, and how selfish would I have to be to not want to do it?
The Sheriff wasn't forcing anyone to rent, he was trying to protect the legitimate renter who paid his rent on time each month from being penalized with eviction and homelessness because the bank was going after the deadbeat owner.
I'm not going to get into this argument again because it is obvious that a forum of high priced lawyers, accountants and tenured academics isn't going to understand what is going on out here in the real world.
Just because someone only earns in the $50-$75,000 a year range, it doesn't make them poor credit risks who are responsible for the sub-prime loans. They are hardworking, multi-earner families struggling to exist in a world where the cheapest house is over $350,000.
When the Realtor and the loan officer told them they too could be part of the American dream of home ownership, convinced them that buying was cheaper than renting because of the tax breaks on home interest, and that they would be earning equity for themselves instead of the landlord, they bought the dream. Millions did. Should they have listened to their Grandparents who said nothing lasts forever and the prices were so over inflated they were bound to crash, yes, of course, but how many had grandparents telling them that as opposed to professionals telling them to get in now or lose out? And speaking of the grandparents, how many are going under now because of reverse mortgages and retirement plans crashing to zero? Were they gaming the system too? When they bought their retirement dream home and expected to have their money last to pay for it, do you think they envisioned having the accounts be near worthless now? Sure, the market and the economy will come back, but get behind even a couple of months when payments are $4000-$5000 a month and then have no job, or no investments to move, what choice are these folks left with? But, of course, they are all just deadbeats and users and deserve it, right?
Posted by: Sara (Pal2Pal) | October 12, 2008 at 02:39 PM
Tell him to learn the one-handed bowline.
Will do. In case of dangling by one hand from a precipice?
Posted by: Jim Ryan | October 12, 2008 at 02:40 PM
Here in California, many of us won't put McCain stickers on our cars for fear of damage....welcome to the Brave New World....
Not in my corner of Calif. I guess you missed it the other day when I wrote about my son and I counting over 600 McCain-Palin bumper stickers and over 120 McCain-Palin yard signs.
Posted by: Sara (Pal2Pal) | October 12, 2008 at 02:46 PM
Speaking of campaign bumper stickers - in my neck of the woods I still see plenty of cars with their "W" stickers still in place! I guess they haven't had much to fear these past 8 years.
Right now I am seeing M/P signs/stickers twice as much as O/B ones. Yet, per usual, our local paper came out for Obama today (it's McClatchy owned, what can I say).
Their editorial is a hoot because it doesn't list one achievement past, present or future for The One - but he will bring change. Pathetic!
Posted by: centralcal | October 12, 2008 at 03:00 PM
****in a world where the cheapest house is over $350,000.****
Ohio is a part of the world. Some houses sell here for a tenth of that. Many many houses are in the $60,000-$100,000 range. A mansion can be had for $350,000.
Consider moving somewhere cheaper. Gas has dropped a dollar a gallon, so the move won't be too costly either.
Posted by: PaulL | October 12, 2008 at 03:00 PM
He would have been though, Sarah. The bank wasn't going after the deadbeat owner anymore. The bank had become the owner.
The sheriff was (as it was first reported) letting people stay in a house when the owner didn't agree to it.
Posted by: MayBee | October 12, 2008 at 03:01 PM
Hopey-Changers Firebomb McCain Supporter's Home
Posted by: Sara (Pal2Pal) | October 12, 2008 at 03:03 PM
Chaco,
"Peter, I appreciate the implied compliment, but I've seen no evidence that our Congresscritters are any smarter than your MPs."
Things are worse here than you know. Economic matters are an EU Competence,our MPs are not consulted.Gordon Brown had to abide by the Ecofin meeting agreements,then he had to go and ask permission to implement his bailout plan.
The EU is not a state but a new form of government,run by the European Council,the Commission and the bureaucracy.The EU Parliament is a sop to democracy,a talking shop.Westminster simply rubber stamps whatever is handed down from Brussels.
Posted by: PeterUK | October 12, 2008 at 03:05 PM
Is there advice over there for the situation in which one is dangling, by one hand, a participle, from?
==============================
Posted by: kim | October 12, 2008 at 03:11 PM
No show of support for anyone but Obama allowed Anywhere!
"PORTLAND, Ore. - Authorities have arrested two men after a Molotov cocktail was thrown at a 4-foot by 8-foot campaign sign for Republican presidential candidate John McCain in a southeast Portland yard."
Lun
Read the entire article, things just get worse. Check out the links in the article to others posting on this subject.
Posted by: Pagar | October 12, 2008 at 03:20 PM
Animated Knots by Grog. What a cool site! He makes those eye spices look so easy. Thanks, Chaco.
Kim, re: dangling, LOL.
Posted by: Caro | October 12, 2008 at 03:32 PM
Charlie,
Is this on your rumors page? A "righteous" lib was citing it yesterday in a Palin denunciation.
Posted by: Elliott | October 12, 2008 at 03:34 PM
Read the entire article, things just get worse.
This is so confusing! I regularly see posts on this board proclaiming the right's proficiency in weapons use and an eagerness in employing them against the political opposition.
And now it seems you stand in opposition to such action.
It's a puzzlement.
Posted by: kim jane il | October 12, 2008 at 03:39 PM
"I think everyone who has responded to you think the banks would probably be better off renting."
I've been kicking that around for a bit and there are a couple of problems with it. The first is that 'banks' don't own the mortgage. Bob the Banker doesn't have any say in the matter once the mortgage has been peddled to Bruce the Investment Banker and Bruce can't fiddle with the terms outlined in the marvelously complex and totally opaque prospectus which he used to peddle his MBS junk to Ingrid the Insurance Pro. Ingrid can't help much either because although she 'owns' a slice of Frank the Flake's foreclosed home she can't really tell if it's the back porch or the first three feet of the driveway. Besides, big fees are being paid to Luke the Loan Servicer (who signed an agreement with Bruce) but there's nothing in the agreement about 'Property Management', about which Luke doesn't know 'siccem' from 'fetch' at any rate.
The second and to me more important point is that inhibiting the market clearance process by renting foreclosures could have a rippling negative effect on the recovery from bottom. Too many renters in a neighborhood kills appreciation. That's a reason why smarter vultures keep their eyes peeled for foreclosures in neighborhoods which are at least ten years old. The return will be much higher for that age neighborhood than it will be for neighborhoods less than five years old.
Another interesting aspect to this is that the residential rental property market is going to get a 10 year boost from the fact that the schlubs who tossed in their keys have locked themselves into being renters for ten years. I would expect that rental rates in desirable areas would pop up substantially due to that fact alone.
Posted by: Rick Ballard | October 12, 2008 at 03:43 PM
PeterUK--Does the lovely Gordon Brown know he needs to cut/comb his hair and not wear suits that are too small? I hope that it's because he's too busy working for you, to notice!
Posted by: glenda waggoner | October 12, 2008 at 03:53 PM
I can't link it because something hinky's going on with my computer but Ace of Spades insists the Obama girlfriend story is true and that the gal is being paid off by some bigtime Chicago pol.
Posted by: clarice | October 12, 2008 at 03:53 PM
and an eagerness in employing them against the political opposition.
I call bullshit... no conservative or libertarian has an "eagerness" to harm another human being.
But we do believe that we have a responsibility to protect ourselves and our families and we take that responsibility on in an eager and forthright manner. We have chosen this responsibility instead of chosen to be victims.
In the article sited, what were the family to do - just start random firing into the night in hopes of hitting the vandals who had left the scene? Yeah, right.
Of course, a gun could have gone on the chase and held the miscreants at bay til the police arrived... cause guns sure are scary things to be feared...
Posted by: bmeuppls | October 12, 2008 at 03:54 PM
OK Chaco. You are correct.
Posted by: M. Simon | October 12, 2008 at 03:55 PM
Story from Ace.
Posted by: Caro | October 12, 2008 at 03:59 PM
"Does the lovely Gordon Brown know he needs to cut/comb his hair and not wear suits that are too small? I hope that it's because he's too busy working for you, to notice!"
No.he's a Charlie Chaplin fan.
Posted by: PeterUK | October 12, 2008 at 04:01 PM
It's a puzzlement.
Ever notice in some other countries where leftists are not the ones outgunned how they are not so pacifist as they are here?
It's a puzzlement.
Posted by: boris | October 12, 2008 at 04:02 PM
"and an eagerness in employing them against the political opposition."
No Kim Jane Sick,they are serious people and they don't kill yard signs.
Posted by: PeterUK | October 12, 2008 at 04:03 PM
Arrogant Murtha to Americans: "Tough Shit."
Posted by: Sara (Pal2Pal) | October 12, 2008 at 04:19 PM
"Ace of Spades insists the Obama girlfriend story is true and that the gal is being paid off by some bigtime Chicago pol."
Alright, there's one/third of my Monday wish list, now I just need a 1000-point market rally and the honorable Rev Wright exulting about how much white devils will suffer under Obama.
Posted by: hrtshpdbox | October 12, 2008 at 04:24 PM
Man, hrstpdbpx, you sure ask for a lot.I'm glad I didn't have to cart your letter to santa to the p.o.
Posted by: clarice | October 12, 2008 at 04:25 PM
But we do believe that we have a responsibility to protect ourselves and our families and we take that responsibility on in an eager and forthright manner.
Which is why someone should ask Obama whether his completely apolitical and professional DOJ* would seek justice in homicides linked to domestic terrorism where some of the suspected perpetrators have not been prosecuted. Good things can happen when prosecutors don't give up.
_______________________
*State, federal, isn't it all the same to the muddle?
Posted by: Elliott | October 12, 2008 at 04:26 PM
Clarice
Rumors of the Messiah's philandering can only help counter his namby-pamby wussy image.
I suspect sockpuppetry.
Posted by: Uncle BigBad | October 12, 2008 at 04:32 PM
"If only they could use handcuffs"
"Two players from the Cuban regime's soccer team defected while in Washington D.C. this weekend for a World Cup qualifying match. As usual, the regime is miffed that it seemingly cannot use the same security methods in the US it uses at home."
Wonder if anyone will still want to risk, not only their lives, but also those of their family and friends to come to a country controlled by Obama?
LUN
Posted by: Pagar | October 12, 2008 at 04:37 PM
**** TRACKING POLLS MOVING TOWARD MCCAIN ****
Gallup and now Hotline/FD have moved in McCain's direction in the last 24-48 hours. The Hotline/FD move of +2 from Saturday just off-set the -2 seen in the Zogby.
It seems as though the w/e has usually favored Obama in the past.
I think it is imperative that McCain knocks a couple more points off these polls (duh!) by this time next week. If he is in the range of 3 to 5 heading into the last two weeks that will have been a successful week.
My thought is if the tracking polls show McCain within 1.5 to 2.5 points going into the election, he has a fighting chance.
The big concern of course is CO. I'm hoping McCain is somehow able to hold the Bush 2004 states with the exception of NM and IA. So it comes down to CO, which I think is the most vunerable of the Bush 2004 group. The strategy of picking up a WI or MN or even PA was nice will it lasted but it is probably gone. Although something about MN... I'm not quite ready to write it off completly.
Posted by: Fisher | October 12, 2008 at 04:42 PM
The Ace-Obama-Girlfriend story is not a direct allegation of infidelity. Rather, the meat of the story is that the woman was whisked away from the Obama campaign and sent to the Caribbean, supposedly on Michelle's command. Ace adds to the story by saying that a Chicago machine bigwig is supporting her down there. We're left to infer infidelity from that. Clever, no?
Posted by: mcg | October 12, 2008 at 04:42 PM
When Will The MSM Report On Obama's Support for Kenyan Tyrant Raila Odinga?
Posted by: Sara (Pal2Pal) | October 12, 2008 at 04:42 PM
HillBuzz about the mystery woman. They name her
Posted by: mcg | October 12, 2008 at 04:48 PM
Well, it looks like Vera Baker, the purported paramour, went to Mills College.
===========================
Posted by: kim | October 12, 2008 at 04:48 PM
The Gallup Tracking of Reg. Voters is down from 11 to 7...but the likely voter is closer...
"The first likely voter model is based on Gallup's traditional likely voter assumptions, which determine respondents' likelihood to vote based on how they answer questions about their current voting intention and past voting behavior. According to this model, Obama's advantage over McCain is 50% to 46% in Oct. 9-11 tracking data."
Posted by: ben | October 12, 2008 at 04:52 PM
NYT Pulls Misleading Account of Palin Puck Dropping Ceremony
Posted by: Sara (Pal2Pal) | October 12, 2008 at 04:53 PM
Her business website is capecaribbean.com/About_Us.html
======================================
Posted by: kim | October 12, 2008 at 04:53 PM
"We're left to infer infidelity from that. Clever, no?"
Like we inferred John Edwards was fooling around when some deep pockets Dem in Dallas was paying for her upkeep?
Posted by: ben | October 12, 2008 at 04:54 PM
It would be interesting if a Hillary site actually blabbed the name first.
Posted by: hrtshpdbox | October 12, 2008 at 05:22 PM
Before heading off to Martinique, Baker was consulting in DC with a fellow named Wambu. Where is Wambu today? ockquote>CBCmmbers were really open to having a firm like ours raise money for them," said Wambu, now deputy political director for Delaware Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr.'s Democratic presidential campaign. "In many ways, they were overlooked as resources. Businesses hadn't pitched to them."
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0507/3875_Page2.html
Posted by: clarice | October 12, 2008 at 05:24 PM
Hydeparker- if you still lurk here, ACE needs your help
http://ace.mu.nu/
Posted by: MayBee | October 12, 2008 at 05:30 PM