Good morning. Someone on the other thread suggested reading American Thinker. And I am glad I did. "Signs Pointing to a McCain Victory."
More than the article itself was uplifting, however. It was the comments. The heartfelt comments of Democrats and PUMAs who refuse to let this country turn into a Socialist nation at the hands of Obama and his cronies.
I actually nearly broke down in tears at some of the comments. I was so relieved to know that many of my Democrat neighbors may differ with me on some issues, but that they are not anti-America. If we only have the far left (including MSM and loony blogs) we end up thinking that all Democrats have lost their minds.
Would have been fun to see McCain respond to mention of Palin's new clothes on MTP by asking Brokaw how much NBC spends on wardrobe and make-up for news anchors.
HillBuzz and TexasDarlin' have inspiring notes from Democrats, too. Even Scary Larry has his moments. He'd not be too bad a guy except that he has a thing for Val and the Vipers.
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VDH had such a fine piece in NRO yesterday comparing the media lies about Palin and its covering up for Biden, the SNL skit fell right in line. The news that this skit might be the thing that spells Murtha's re-election doom is icing on the cake.
Centralcal, I read the same article, and my day suddenly got much better. It's so simple: the LSM illuminati are telling us what they want to tell us, and not telling us what they don't want to tell us, and we're all crying about it, when we KNOW they are skewed. We know this. Should we trust them? No. Reasonable, intelligent Democrats are out there, and they're making reasonable, intelligent decisions.
A.B. - I wonder too about all the Dem commenters at AT who said they had already voted (early voting states). Some of that early Dem turnout won't necessarily be going to The One. I just hope it is a large enough percentage to help us defeat his commie butt.
"SNL also showed Biden to be the utter nincompoop we all know him to be."
They try to make Sarah look like a nincompoop too, and probably feel safe using some Dem material now - the election already in the bag for O, or so they think. The later segment (LUN), though totally in the tank for O, at least features a surreal moment of Rev Wright singing about the "white devils", while a grim-faced Bill Ayers accompanies on organ.
And Biden was Obama's first test .Joe speaks from experience when he suggests that we'll be unhappy with O's first response to an international threat and his ratings will plummet. No? Biden told us shortly after his selection Hillary would have been the wiser pick, didn't he?
Jim Nuzzo, a White House aide to the first President Bush, dismissed Mrs Palin's critics as "cocktail party conservatives" who "give aid and comfort to the enemy". He told The Sunday Telegraph: "There's going to be a bloodbath. A lot of people are going to be excommunicated. David Brooks and David Frum and Peggy Noonan are dead people in the Republican Party. The litmus test will be: where did you stand on Palin?
Mr. Nuzzo, if we should ever meet, I owe you a drink for that one."
I'm not sure how Frum, Brooks, and especially Noonan had any credibility for Republicans coming into this election season. Noonan has been writing nonsense for years (she's sort of a RINO version of Maureen Dowd, isn't she?), and anyone reputation she has at all is based on speeches she wrote for Ronald Reagan twenty-five years ago; speeches that I'd like to think Reagan actually wrote, and let Peggy have credit for.
the thing about the Maline piece is he tied into the outrageous coverage, the Dems' position on union card check elections and the Fairness doctrine, suggesting for the first time (to my knowledge) that economic self-interest in preserving their jobs and pensions pushed these editorial decisions, not merely ideological bias.
Have you all seen this from Stanley Kurtz?
Be sure to follow his link to Fight the Smears. It should bother everybody that the website of a future President has this kind of personal smear against a journalist on its official pages.
Boy Fox is going on crazy on the ban of the Orlando TV station after the Biden interview and the use of government computers to investigate Joe the Plumber. Strongest coverage I've seen in a long time.
Hugh Hewitt excerpts an Isikoff story in Newsweek about Rezko and then concludes with some really good questions:
"The Newsweek story is by Michael Isikoff, one the nation's premier investigative journalists. If Obama wins in nine days, we should begin a story count of how many scandal-related stories flow from Isikoff. Given the Chicago connections and the ongoing Rezko investigation, an Obama Administration could easily be the Second Golden Age of Isikoff.
The question of Patrick Fitzgerald's future also grows more relevant. It should be an enormous scandal if a President Obama were to fire him, but the Chicago team knows this is a big threat and not just to their political ambitions. Perhaps in the closing sprint of the campaign some intrepid journalist will bother to ask about Patrick Fitzgerald's future?"
Jane: Oh shoot! Now you'vd forced me to turn on the TV! grin. I was trying to see how long I could go this beautiful Sunday morning without listening to the media/news.
Pennsylvania Republicans nominated a black guy - Lynn Swann - to be their Governor in 2006. Swann got 40% of the vote.
The most votes Joe Biden has received in an election is around 165,000. He received a shade over 140,000 in his last election in a two-way race. Sarah Palin, running in her first campaign as a statewide candidate, got a bit over 120,000 votes in a three-way race.
Also, the Senate chooses its Committee Chairs by longevity, not ability.
I wonder what Patrick Fitzgerald thinks of Patrick Fitzgerald's future. I would like to trust this corruption buster to really do a fine job, but I saw how vicious his attack after his warped judgement miscued on Libby and I just don't know.
=========================
If there are so many of them, they aren't outliers. The high ones aren't outliers any more than the low ones are.
Which is another demonstration that that stats class went right over its head.
So let's throw in a little statistical factchecking. Note, by the way, that the numbers here aren't intended to be taken as exact values for any particular poll; there's just there as definite examples in order to lay out the statistical principles involved.
1) No, if the high ones are outliers then the low ones probably are. However, the notion of "outlier" really doesn't mean much in this situation, because
2) the samples are radically different. Because of that, the idea that some of the polls are outliers --- samples of a random variable that happen to come out far from the mean --- is flawed.
3) So is the "Real Clear Politics" average. Averaging means only works if the samples are sufficiently similar that the variances are similar and the means are within a "reasonable" interval. Right now we have a situation where some of the polls being averaged are so far apart that the mean of one is seven or eight or nine standard deviations away from the mean of another.
An easy way to look at it is this: the "margin of error" number is really a statement that the real value you'd get from a real election has a 19 in 20 chance of being within the margin of the poll's reported value. When, as RCP is doing, you average polls as far apart as these are, you are basically saying that the vote will be 55/41±3 Obama/McCain AND 49/47 ±3 Obama/McCain AT THE SAME TIME.
Which is obvious nonsense.
4) That doesn't mean we can't learn from the polls, it just means that we have to understand what they're telling us.
What they're telling us is that there are a whole mess of radically different assumptions about the makeup of the people who actually get to the polls. Reasonably enough, the higher the proportion of Democrats to Republicans, the higher the poll shows for Obama. Lower, the better the poll shows for McCain. Here's how to read that: IF the actual turnout is, say 40 percent D, 28 percent R THEN the expected vote will come out, say, 51/44.
So don't average the polls; read them as different statements entirely, based on different assumptions.
5) Now, let's bring in what Jay Cost and DJ Drummond have been saying: it would be extremely unusual for party identification to change that much. Certainly not impossible, but very very unusual.
6) Factor in the ACORN stuff: we know they said they'd registered 1.4 million new voters. It's been reported that they really registered between a third and a tenth as many in reality. Say it's a third, about 500,000. Of those, how many are fraudulent? We don't know, but every reported example has been pretty high.
Both of these would tend to make the electorate model --- that is, the relative proportion of D to R to I --- weighted incorrectly to D.
The upshot of it all is: ignore the RCP average: it's meaningless, literally based on a self-contradictory assumption.
Read the different polls as: IF the electorate is really balanced as this poll says, THEN the results are likely to be so-and-so.
And if you care about the outcome of the election, do everything you can to make sure that people who think like you are voting. Legally.
Yes, thanks, Chaco.I planned to get back to that and forgot, and then you said it much better than I could/This is such a unique elections, there's extra special sauce in the polling--that is, assumptions by the pollsters, vastly at odds with eachother and rather impossible from this vantage point to assess for accuracy.
Here's yet another factor--how many of the newly registered voters who ARE legitimate, will make it to the polls and follow instructions. Remember, they told Stern they thought Palin was running with Obama. We aren't generally talking about intelligent and responsible people.
Thanks, Charlie. RCP has been owned by TIME since the last election. I haven't considered it to have any value (except to get to the actual polls) since. What they're doing is taking 3 apples, 6 pears, 12 bananas and 7 oranges and saying the average is 7.
Or like taking all the separate AGW "studies" and statistically "validating" the hockey stick, "proving" that it's going to get warmer when in fact it's getting a little cooler.
Here's yet another factor--how many of the newly registered voters who ARE legitimate, will make it to the polls and follow instructions. Remember, they told Stern they thought Palin was running with Obama. We aren't generally talking about intelligent and responsible people.
Absolutely. We need a new term in place of "Bradley effect", because Bradley effect is so heavily freighted with racial connotations, but consider how many undecideds there still are; some polls have as many as 12 percent still undecided. How many of them just didn't want to tell?
According to Tammy Bruce's radio show yesterday --- which may or may not be a good source, I can't find a thing that comes from a source I'd trust to be unbiased --- undecideds are going very heavily, nearly uniformly, to McCain. This would be unusual, but consistent with the notion that some people don't want to tell a random pollster that they aren't going to vote for Obama.
Some analyst said early on that he considered the undecideds to really be McCain voters. If you consider Obama's appeal to be largely emotional as I do,it's no surprise if they are voting McCain. If you haven't drunk the kool-aid by now, you aren't going to.
Good for Sarah. Elizabeth brought up the Sarah's accessories and mentioned the flag pin, noting that the media did not mention it.
Well, Sarah just did a riff on her accessories today - beaded earrings made by her M-I-L a native Alaskan, her wedding band that was purchased for $35 in Hawaii and worn these 20 some years because it is the marriage and not the ring that is important to her, and her Blue Star mom pin on her jacket lapel.
Okay, it's a different story. Here's a good graf from the WSJ story:
The Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now -- or Acorn -- the troubled left-wing activist group, has new headaches. Last week Michael Slater, head of its Project Vote, admitted that some 400,000 of its claimed 1.3 million newly registered voters were rejected by election officials as either duplicates or fraudulent -- i.e. it doesn't sound as if Acorn's vaunted "quality control" efforts were all that effective.
So, the 1.4 million registrations is down to 900,000.
If this theory is correct, then obviously Barack Obama has the advantage in emotion-based campaigning, while John McCain has the advantage in intellect-based campaigning. Obama's lack of experience makes it very difficult to build a case for him on accomplishments; he simply has no resume. McCain's lack of glamour makes it very hard for him to gain, much less hold, the attention of anyone not already inclined to give him a chance to make his case; he simply does not sparkle. The question at hand, however, is which approach is more effective in this year's campaign. The polls would seem to indicate that Obama grabbed most voters' attention, won them over, and they never gave McCain a serious look. That, however, ignores an obvious side-effect of the emotion-based voter. Pollsters this year have - among themselves - remarked about the difficulty in getting responses from people they contact.[Emphasis mine.]
What a weird world/campaign this has become;
you have to go to a PUMA site to find out that Guiliani is doing a McCain/Palin rally in Kendall; (that's Southern Dade County) while MSNBC's political director Chuck Todd, sees fit to post his impresssions of the 'lack of chemistry' between Palin and McCain (what are they supposed to be, on a date; Cue; Kathleen Parker)and Adelman, doing his "Jump the Killer Whale" on the Indonesia oil divorce settlement site for nouveau Marxist the Huff Po. McCain did an okay job on Meet the Press, Lindsey Graham did a weaker impression; they really have no message discipline; one of the other things they hate about Palin. Lieberman's another example, don't get me started on Ridge.
Maybe Sarah made the SNL staff realize they have to earn their ratings; plus anyone who's truly met her, can't really hate her, unless they're corrupt hacks (Ruedrich,
Green) Plus maybe they have to admit how the game has been stacked in favor of the one. Like hence the Bill Clinton 'Simply Irresistable' bits ,and the Murtha/Biden slash. They did a snarky bit on the 'evil Robocalls'; but after the barrage of Barak lies, that's a bit much to swallow.
Moving on from the ridiculous to thesublime,
one imagines that the New Left sees the Ayers/Doehrn strategy as analogous in some ways to the late 19th century Russian experience. The Narodniki and later the SR
failed because of their indiscriminate violence; yet the Marxists won by political organization, exploiting crisis, and infiltrating societal institutions. This is the greater danger; but one obstacle at a time.
Adelman announced on Huff Po that he was switching to Obama--Like jumping the shark in Happy Days it reflected the end of his career. Huff Po is financed by Ariana's divorce settlement from Huffington whose fortune largely stemmed from Indonesia oilk holdings.
PaulL, When I could figure out what narciso was saying, I realized it reflected rather a brilliant mind with an incredible breadth of knowledge, so I redoubled my efforts to understand him instead of giving up and scrolling on.
PaulL - sorry, but JLO at the Corner has posted a mea culpa. Seems someone re-weighted the poll to 2004 stats and came up with the less than 1 pt. difference.
Apparently today's poll hasn't been published yet.
I agree with clarice, and the reason, Paul, that he's easier to understand now is that he's posting about election politics; previously it tended to be about intelligence. We share a little more knowledge base with him, lately.
=====================================
I've had two robocalls so far today. I hung up on the first after hearing, "Hello. This is Bob Dole." But as the second was from Rasmussen, I dutifully answered a series of taped questions re BO and JM. I believe this is the first time I may be part of a national poll, and participating was very satisfying.
You got it, Kim. Went down to little Havana and saw that "The One" has an office on 8th Street; that's galling to the nth degree. The Herald was always liberal on domestic politics, but they went into the tank even before the Iraq war started, nay, around the 2000 elections; roughly in the aftermath
of the "Elian rendition". Yet they have a strong point of view supporting Uribe and opposing Chavez; although their Spanish language portal is stronger in that regard.
They apparently don't want to see the similarity between events abroad and those close to home. The columnists, Reinhard, yesterday, warbling about Palin's extremism,
Hiassen, who has an entry today,How did Mahoney think he was going to get away with this? Hello, McFly, when you run the incriminating details on page B-12, what do you think is going to happen. The local political scene, isn't much better, the Mayor of Miami; is an admirer of the Chicago style gentrification under the Daley years; which has basically fallen apart in the subprime debacle. Former Mayor Martinez, who has a fighting chance, only because of some crazy court interpretation
of the Hobbs Act, was a Hillary standard bearer but is a minion of the One throwing
all sorts of garbage at the Diaz Balart
clan. Despite all the Category 6 headwinds, McCain is favored at least in the Hispanic
section of the County. Among Cuban,
Venezuelan, & Columbian Americans. Too many others, swallowing the Kool Aid, from all appearances
Anybody keeping track of the Gateway/LGF story about the LAT having a tape of Obama/Ayers/Kalidi at a Israel bashing dinner? Seems they refuse to release it.
Gee, and I thought the role of the press was to pretect and infrom the public.
The Rasmussen questions were taped ones first asking "Are you...?" So I choose the number corresponding to my gender, age, political affiliation, family income, educational level, but that's as specific as it got. Then the rest of the questions were about whether I'd vote for BO or JM, how favorably and unfavorably I viewed each, how open to change my opinion is, what issue was most important to me, who did I trust more, who did I fear more, etc. After the questions about me, all the other questions were about BO and JM, no one and nothing else. It took about 8 min. bi
Thanks Deb - was curious about the caller ID, because I am assuming they would show that info if they expect to get callers to answer and respond, but you never know.
She said she has very little doubt that the public polling is part of a “concerted voter suppression effort” by the MSM. She said IBD/TIPP was the only outfit doing public polling that was “worth a bucket of warm piss”.
NQ has done a server change. The DNS has not migrated. You can get the front page by doing a google search and looking at the cached copy. Mine has entries from 26 Oct.
If Obama wins (or better, if he doesn't), we could have more investigations than the Clinton years....Rezko, Ayers, campaign funny money, ACORN, Hollywood in kind support, the media....there's gonna be a whole lot to write about in coming months.....
The time has come for someone to put his foot down, and that foot is me!
Anybody keeping track of the Gateway/LGF story about the LAT having a tape of Obama/Ayers/Kalidi at a Israel bashing dinner? Seems they refuse to release it.
He constantly restates others’ contributions in his own invariably more eloquent words.
snip
When he was elected to the United States Senate in 2004, Mr. Obama wrote his second book, “The Audacity of Hope,” laying out his political philosophy. It meant getting only three or four hours of sleep at night, his editor said, but he insisted on writing the entire thing himself’.
So kind of NYT to stand up for Hobama's literary prowess. I can't recall reading about any other authors insisting on writing the entire thing themselves.
The article does refer to his friendship with Rashid Khalidi. No mention of Ayers. However, Valerie Jarrett is quoted as saying Obama wants to "suck the room of every idea." Such intense intellectual curiosity is hard to reconcile with his ignorance of Ayers and Dohrn, or his assumption of their rehabilitation.
So, the 1.4 million registrations is down to 900,000.
Charlie, full story on the registration numbers. Shorter version: about a third are out right fraud, about a third were people already registered, and a third were "new voters". I'd be curious how PA and NJ thread the neddle on this. Rendell has made it known that Obama hasn't gotten the walking around money to the ward heelers, and I'm pretty sure the same could be said about NJ. The situation in Ohio looks to be pretty bad with fradulant voter registrations and even if Obama were to win there is nothing to stop a broad based investigation of ACORN's and the SoS activities (by the state and the feds-rifling JTP's files was the last straw-and don't be surprised if someone from the IRS gets caught too), which will eventually lead to Obama's campaign. The more people Obama were to fire associated with any federal investigations and the more people fired regarding state investigations, the greater the chances people will start to talk and it ends up with Gov. Strickland's impeachment.
It should be noted that Alexrod (Obama's campaign manager) has a whole stable of former clients who have been hauled off to jail including Eliot Spitzer. He also was the lead guy in the 2006 Dem congressional campaign (that Foley story was his best work followed closely with the Weldon story) and worked closely with Emanuel.
It amazes me that the GOP and the conservative side of the blogsphere generally, know the Dem's rule books and know their tactics (astroturfing), but we still always seem to believe the MSM (Dem talking points) and then get into circular firing squads for the Dems entertainment.
Re: Narciso. I've always pictured him as the "most interesting man in the world". I haven't had business in Miami in a while, but if I make it down there in the near future, I'd invite him to the Clevelander to have a beer.
If the dissidents in Rooshia were able to get their message out via the samidzat press, we can surely do better...besides, Obama's skin is so thin it's going to be fun puncturing his and Pelosi's and Reid's balloons and watching them try to use the power of the state to try and shut down criticism....There's no fool like a pol fool. There's whole iconography of old Soviet and Maoist propaganda to draw from that just perfect for these clownshoes.....
Good morning. Someone on the other thread suggested reading American Thinker. And I am glad I did. "Signs Pointing to a McCain Victory."
More than the article itself was uplifting, however. It was the comments. The heartfelt comments of Democrats and PUMAs who refuse to let this country turn into a Socialist nation at the hands of Obama and his cronies.
I actually nearly broke down in tears at some of the comments. I was so relieved to know that many of my Democrat neighbors may differ with me on some issues, but that they are not anti-America. If we only have the far left (including MSM and loony blogs) we end up thinking that all Democrats have lost their minds.
Thank God, they all have not.
Posted by: centralcal | October 26, 2008 at 09:39 AM
Would have been fun to see McCain respond to mention of Palin's new clothes on MTP by asking Brokaw how much NBC spends on wardrobe and make-up for news anchors.
Posted by: Barney's Evil Twin | October 26, 2008 at 10:10 AM
HillBuzz and TexasDarlin' have inspiring notes from Democrats, too. Even Scary Larry has his moments. He'd not be too bad a guy except that he has a thing for Val and the Vipers.
===============================
Posted by: kim | October 26, 2008 at 10:10 AM
Wouldn't have dreamed that SNL would finally be the one to broach the subject that Biden is crazier'n a pet coon.
Posted by: Pofarmer | October 26, 2008 at 10:16 AM
VDH had such a fine piece in NRO yesterday comparing the media lies about Palin and its covering up for Biden, the SNL skit fell right in line. The news that this skit might be the thing that spells Murtha's re-election doom is icing on the cake.
Posted by: clarice | October 26, 2008 at 10:18 AM
IMO the only response to the RNC clothes buy for Palin is that Obama outspent her on fake Greek columns.
I really wonder about the response to the SNL skit, since for many watchers that was probably the first time they heard about that stuff.
Posted by: Jane Plumber | October 26, 2008 at 10:22 AM
Centralcal,
Gotta link?
Posted by: Jane Plumber | October 26, 2008 at 10:24 AM
Centralcal, I read the same article, and my day suddenly got much better. It's so simple: the LSM illuminati are telling us what they want to tell us, and not telling us what they don't want to tell us, and we're all crying about it, when we KNOW they are skewed. We know this. Should we trust them? No. Reasonable, intelligent Democrats are out there, and they're making reasonable, intelligent decisions.
Posted by: A.B. | October 26, 2008 at 10:28 AM
Signs Pointing To A McCain Victory
Posted by: boris | October 26, 2008 at 10:30 AM
Jane: sorry. here you go - LUN.
Be sure to scan through the comments.
Posted by: centralcal | October 26, 2008 at 10:31 AM
Why, Jane.....you dropped the troll bomb on me last night. I'm hurt.
Posted by: BobS | October 26, 2008 at 10:33 AM
Thank you, Boris!!
A.B. - I wonder too about all the Dem commenters at AT who said they had already voted (early voting states). Some of that early Dem turnout won't necessarily be going to The One. I just hope it is a large enough percentage to help us defeat his commie butt.
Posted by: centralcal | October 26, 2008 at 10:34 AM
I was just having a little fun mocking the lefties. (sniff)
Posted by: BobS | October 26, 2008 at 10:35 AM
Clarice: I hope Mad Jack Murtha is sent packing to an asylum somewhere.
SNL also showed Biden to be the utter nincompoop we all know him to be. Another great judgment call by The One.
Posted by: centralcal | October 26, 2008 at 10:41 AM
"SNL also showed Biden to be the utter nincompoop we all know him to be."
They try to make Sarah look like a nincompoop too, and probably feel safe using some Dem material now - the election already in the bag for O, or so they think. The later segment (LUN), though totally in the tank for O, at least features a surreal moment of Rev Wright singing about the "white devils", while a grim-faced Bill Ayers accompanies on organ.
Posted by: hrtshpdbox | October 26, 2008 at 10:49 AM
Centralcal: That "judgement thing"
Remember Bill Bradley's early Obama endorsement? He talked of his superior judgement, too.
Posted by: BobS | October 26, 2008 at 10:50 AM
And Biden was Obama's first test .Joe speaks from experience when he suggests that we'll be unhappy with O's first response to an international threat and his ratings will plummet. No? Biden told us shortly after his selection Hillary would have been the wiser pick, didn't he?
Posted by: clarice | October 26, 2008 at 10:50 AM
Great article at ABC News, linked from the corner blog at NRO. Eviscerates the media bias. Written by a journalist no less.
Posted by: bio mom | October 26, 2008 at 10:50 AM
Correction, It was NROs media blog that posted it. I will try to post the link.
Posted by: bio mom | October 26, 2008 at 10:51 AM
Here is the journalist disgusted with his own profession. http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=6099188&page=1
Posted by: bio mom | October 26, 2008 at 10:53 AM
Here is the journalist disgusted with his own profession.
Wow, that's the Pajamas Media story posted earlier - I can't believe it made it to the MSM. Gutsy writing by Malone.
Posted by: Porchlight | October 26, 2008 at 11:03 AM
From Robert Stacy McCain at the AmSpec blog:
"The good news? The prospective "bloodbath":
Jim Nuzzo, a White House aide to the first President Bush, dismissed Mrs Palin's critics as "cocktail party conservatives" who "give aid and comfort to the enemy". He told The Sunday Telegraph: "There's going to be a bloodbath. A lot of people are going to be excommunicated. David Brooks and David Frum and Peggy Noonan are dead people in the Republican Party. The litmus test will be: where did you stand on Palin?
Mr. Nuzzo, if we should ever meet, I owe you a drink for that one."
Posted by: centralcal | October 26, 2008 at 11:09 AM
Why, Jane.....you dropped the troll bomb on me last night. I'm hurt.
I did?
I wasn't here for most of last night. Are you sure it was me?
Posted by: Jane Plumber | October 26, 2008 at 11:14 AM
I'm with Nuzzo. If they can't see Palin as the future they are done. Picking Palin no matter what happens will probably be McCain's greatest legacy.
Posted by: Laura | October 26, 2008 at 11:22 AM
I'm not sure how Frum, Brooks, and especially Noonan had any credibility for Republicans coming into this election season. Noonan has been writing nonsense for years (she's sort of a RINO version of Maureen Dowd, isn't she?), and anyone reputation she has at all is based on speeches she wrote for Ronald Reagan twenty-five years ago; speeches that I'd like to think Reagan actually wrote, and let Peggy have credit for.
Posted by: hrtshpdbox | October 26, 2008 at 11:24 AM
the thing about the Maline piece is he tied into the outrageous coverage, the Dems' position on union card check elections and the Fairness doctrine, suggesting for the first time (to my knowledge) that economic self-interest in preserving their jobs and pensions pushed these editorial decisions, not merely ideological bias.
Posted by: clarice | October 26, 2008 at 11:27 AM
Have you all seen this from Stanley Kurtz?
Be sure to follow his link to Fight the Smears. It should bother everybody that the website of a future President has this kind of personal smear against a journalist on its official pages.
Posted by: MayBee | October 26, 2008 at 11:27 AM
*MalOne**
Posted by: clarice | October 26, 2008 at 11:28 AM
Why is Chicago murder capital of the country? One reason, according to this American Thinker piece (LUN):
"Obama supported efforts by Bill Ayers and others to change the criminal code in Illinois to prevent trying juveniles as adults."
Posted by: hrtshpdbox | October 26, 2008 at 11:36 AM
Boy Fox is going on crazy on the ban of the Orlando TV station after the Biden interview and the use of government computers to investigate Joe the Plumber. Strongest coverage I've seen in a long time.
Posted by: Jane Plumber | October 26, 2008 at 11:36 AM
Sorry, Jane...it was Plumber's Pal...my bad
Posted by: BobS | October 26, 2008 at 11:36 AM
Hugh Hewitt excerpts an Isikoff story in Newsweek about Rezko and then concludes with some really good questions:
"The Newsweek story is by Michael Isikoff, one the nation's premier investigative journalists. If Obama wins in nine days, we should begin a story count of how many scandal-related stories flow from Isikoff. Given the Chicago connections and the ongoing Rezko investigation, an Obama Administration could easily be the Second Golden Age of Isikoff.
The question of Patrick Fitzgerald's future also grows more relevant. It should be an enormous scandal if a President Obama were to fire him, but the Chicago team knows this is a big threat and not just to their political ambitions. Perhaps in the closing sprint of the campaign some intrepid journalist will bother to ask about Patrick Fitzgerald's future?"
LUN
Posted by: centralcal | October 26, 2008 at 11:37 AM
Jane: Oh shoot! Now you'vd forced me to turn on the TV! grin. I was trying to see how long I could go this beautiful Sunday morning without listening to the media/news.
Posted by: centralcal | October 26, 2008 at 11:41 AM
fwiw -
Pennsylvania Republicans nominated a black guy - Lynn Swann - to be their Governor in 2006. Swann got 40% of the vote.
The most votes Joe Biden has received in an election is around 165,000. He received a shade over 140,000 in his last election in a two-way race. Sarah Palin, running in her first campaign as a statewide candidate, got a bit over 120,000 votes in a three-way race.
Also, the Senate chooses its Committee Chairs by longevity, not ability.
-
Posted by: BumperStickerist | October 26, 2008 at 11:42 AM
I wonder what Patrick Fitzgerald thinks of Patrick Fitzgerald's future. I would like to trust this corruption buster to really do a fine job, but I saw how vicious his attack after his warped judgement miscued on Libby and I just don't know.
=========================
Posted by: kim | October 26, 2008 at 11:45 AM
despair not people!
"Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!"
hobama's livin a lie and he's about to get caught by a whole bunch of americans like us that have the snot palin's made of in our bones
the gift of clarity bred into us by our parents and grandparents and many more generations of hard working immigrants
hobama don't got it
Posted by: scott | October 26, 2008 at 11:45 AM
Kimji dropped this one on the other thread:
Which is another demonstration that that stats class went right over its head.
So let's throw in a little statistical factchecking. Note, by the way, that the numbers here aren't intended to be taken as exact values for any particular poll; there's just there as definite examples in order to lay out the statistical principles involved.
1) No, if the high ones are outliers then the low ones probably are. However, the notion of "outlier" really doesn't mean much in this situation, because
2) the samples are radically different. Because of that, the idea that some of the polls are outliers --- samples of a random variable that happen to come out far from the mean --- is flawed.
3) So is the "Real Clear Politics" average. Averaging means only works if the samples are sufficiently similar that the variances are similar and the means are within a "reasonable" interval. Right now we have a situation where some of the polls being averaged are so far apart that the mean of one is seven or eight or nine standard deviations away from the mean of another.
An easy way to look at it is this: the "margin of error" number is really a statement that the real value you'd get from a real election has a 19 in 20 chance of being within the margin of the poll's reported value. When, as RCP is doing, you average polls as far apart as these are, you are basically saying that the vote will be 55/41±3 Obama/McCain AND 49/47 ±3 Obama/McCain AT THE SAME TIME.
Which is obvious nonsense.
4) That doesn't mean we can't learn from the polls, it just means that we have to understand what they're telling us.
What they're telling us is that there are a whole mess of radically different assumptions about the makeup of the people who actually get to the polls. Reasonably enough, the higher the proportion of Democrats to Republicans, the higher the poll shows for Obama. Lower, the better the poll shows for McCain. Here's how to read that: IF the actual turnout is, say 40 percent D, 28 percent R THEN the expected vote will come out, say, 51/44.
So don't average the polls; read them as different statements entirely, based on different assumptions.
5) Now, let's bring in what Jay Cost and DJ Drummond have been saying: it would be extremely unusual for party identification to change that much. Certainly not impossible, but very very unusual.
6) Factor in the ACORN stuff: we know they said they'd registered 1.4 million new voters. It's been reported that they really registered between a third and a tenth as many in reality. Say it's a third, about 500,000. Of those, how many are fraudulent? We don't know, but every reported example has been pretty high.
Both of these would tend to make the electorate model --- that is, the relative proportion of D to R to I --- weighted incorrectly to D.
The upshot of it all is: ignore the RCP average: it's meaningless, literally based on a self-contradictory assumption.
Read the different polls as: IF the electorate is really balanced as this poll says, THEN the results are likely to be so-and-so.
And if you care about the outcome of the election, do everything you can to make sure that people who think like you are voting. Legally.
Posted by: Charlie (Colorado) | October 26, 2008 at 11:48 AM
Yes, thanks, Chaco.I planned to get back to that and forgot, and then you said it much better than I could/This is such a unique elections, there's extra special sauce in the polling--that is, assumptions by the pollsters, vastly at odds with eachother and rather impossible from this vantage point to assess for accuracy.
Posted by: clarice | October 26, 2008 at 11:57 AM
Here's yet another factor--how many of the newly registered voters who ARE legitimate, will make it to the polls and follow instructions. Remember, they told Stern they thought Palin was running with Obama. We aren't generally talking about intelligent and responsible people.
Posted by: clarice | October 26, 2008 at 11:58 AM
Jay Cost has a good post on this today too.
Posted by: Charlie (Colorado) | October 26, 2008 at 11:59 AM
Thanks, Charlie. RCP has been owned by TIME since the last election. I haven't considered it to have any value (except to get to the actual polls) since. What they're doing is taking 3 apples, 6 pears, 12 bananas and 7 oranges and saying the average is 7.
Or like taking all the separate AGW "studies" and statistically "validating" the hockey stick, "proving" that it's going to get warmer when in fact it's getting a little cooler.
Posted by: Rick Ballard | October 26, 2008 at 12:05 PM
Chaco: One small correction, Jay Cost posted that 2 days ago.
On another subject, I was surprised to learn that the reporter who grilled Biden is a former assistant to Peter Jennings.
Posted by: centralcal | October 26, 2008 at 12:05 PM
Absolutely. We need a new term in place of "Bradley effect", because Bradley effect is so heavily freighted with racial connotations, but consider how many undecideds there still are; some polls have as many as 12 percent still undecided. How many of them just didn't want to tell?
According to Tammy Bruce's radio show yesterday --- which may or may not be a good source, I can't find a thing that comes from a source I'd trust to be unbiased --- undecideds are going very heavily, nearly uniformly, to McCain. This would be unusual, but consistent with the notion that some people don't want to tell a random pollster that they aren't going to vote for Obama.
Posted by: Charlie (Colorado) | October 26, 2008 at 12:11 PM
Chaco: One small correction, Jay Cost posted that 2 days ago.
Jesus, it's the 26th already?
Posted by: Charlie (Colorado) | October 26, 2008 at 12:12 PM
FITZ!
Posted by: peter | October 26, 2008 at 12:14 PM
Elizabeth Hasselback just gave a rousing introduction to Sarah (in Florida, I think).
Posted by: centralcal | October 26, 2008 at 12:16 PM
Some analyst said early on that he considered the undecideds to really be McCain voters. If you consider Obama's appeal to be largely emotional as I do,it's no surprise if they are voting McCain. If you haven't drunk the kool-aid by now, you aren't going to.
Posted by: clarice | October 26, 2008 at 12:17 PM
More ACORN fraud to be challenged..
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122495396715269535.html
Posted by: clarice | October 26, 2008 at 12:20 PM
Good for Sarah. Elizabeth brought up the Sarah's accessories and mentioned the flag pin, noting that the media did not mention it.
Well, Sarah just did a riff on her accessories today - beaded earrings made by her M-I-L a native Alaskan, her wedding band that was purchased for $35 in Hawaii and worn these 20 some years because it is the marriage and not the ring that is important to her, and her Blue Star mom pin on her jacket lapel.
Good for her!
Posted by: centralcal | October 26, 2008 at 12:20 PM
I'm going to bid on the Pink jacket she has on.Hope it is my size.
Posted by: jean | October 26, 2008 at 12:26 PM
Haven't looked at the WSJ one, so I don't know if they're the same story, but Warren Throckmorton has a piece up too.
Posted by: Charlie (Colorado) | October 26, 2008 at 12:37 PM
Okay, it's a different story. Here's a good graf from the WSJ story:
So, the 1.4 million registrations is down to 900,000.
Posted by: Charlie (Colorado) | October 26, 2008 at 12:40 PM
No, Chaco, it's a different fraud.
The first was caught out by college newscasters (Palestra) catching the pros flat footed.
Posted by: clarice | October 26, 2008 at 12:40 PM
A good graf from DJ Drummond:
Posted by: Charlie (Colorado) | October 26, 2008 at 12:46 PM
What a weird world/campaign this has become;
you have to go to a PUMA site to find out that Guiliani is doing a McCain/Palin rally in Kendall; (that's Southern Dade County) while MSNBC's political director Chuck Todd, sees fit to post his impresssions of the 'lack of chemistry' between Palin and McCain (what are they supposed to be, on a date; Cue; Kathleen Parker)and Adelman, doing his "Jump the Killer Whale" on the Indonesia oil divorce settlement site for nouveau Marxist the Huff Po. McCain did an okay job on Meet the Press, Lindsey Graham did a weaker impression; they really have no message discipline; one of the other things they hate about Palin. Lieberman's another example, don't get me started on Ridge.
Maybe Sarah made the SNL staff realize they have to earn their ratings; plus anyone who's truly met her, can't really hate her, unless they're corrupt hacks (Ruedrich,
Green) Plus maybe they have to admit how the game has been stacked in favor of the one. Like hence the Bill Clinton 'Simply Irresistable' bits ,and the Murtha/Biden slash. They did a snarky bit on the 'evil Robocalls'; but after the barrage of Barak lies, that's a bit much to swallow.
Moving on from the ridiculous to thesublime,
one imagines that the New Left sees the Ayers/Doehrn strategy as analogous in some ways to the late 19th century Russian experience. The Narodniki and later the SR
failed because of their indiscriminate violence; yet the Marxists won by political organization, exploiting crisis, and infiltrating societal institutions. This is the greater danger; but one obstacle at a time.
Posted by: narciso | October 26, 2008 at 12:46 PM
It's actually another one caught by Palestra.
Posted by: Charlie (Colorado) | October 26, 2008 at 12:47 PM
doing his "Jump the Killer Whale" on the Indonesia oil divorce settlement site for nouveau Marxist the Huff Po
Can anyone explain this part to me?
Posted by: Charlie (Colorado) | October 26, 2008 at 12:48 PM
Adelman announced on Huff Po that he was switching to Obama--Like jumping the shark in Happy Days it reflected the end of his career. Huff Po is financed by Ariana's divorce settlement from Huffington whose fortune largely stemmed from Indonesia oilk holdings.
Posted by: clarice | October 26, 2008 at 12:52 PM
Narciso,
You are a joy to read and please don't ever change.
Posted by: PaulL | October 26, 2008 at 12:56 PM
Damn! That's good Clarice: The Annotated Narciso. I can remember when you couldn't follow much of anything he posted.
Posted by: PaulL | October 26, 2008 at 12:58 PM
IBD/TIPP Poll - Posted 26 Oct 08-(Obama 44.59%, McCain 43.66%)
Lopez at The Corner posted this.
Less than one point!
Posted by: PaulL | October 26, 2008 at 01:04 PM
PaulL, When I could figure out what narciso was saying, I realized it reflected rather a brilliant mind with an incredible breadth of knowledge, so I redoubled my efforts to understand him instead of giving up and scrolling on.
Posted by: clarice | October 26, 2008 at 01:09 PM
PaulL - sorry, but JLO at the Corner has posted a mea culpa. Seems someone re-weighted the poll to 2004 stats and came up with the less than 1 pt. difference.
Apparently today's poll hasn't been published yet.
Posted by: centralcal | October 26, 2008 at 01:09 PM
CTV news just said if you don't vote for Obama your a racist.
Posted by: SK | October 26, 2008 at 01:10 PM
centralcal: Too bad! I looked for today's poll and couldn't find it, and assumed that Lopez had early access to it. Damn!
Posted by: PaulL | October 26, 2008 at 01:16 PM
I agree with clarice, and the reason, Paul, that he's easier to understand now is that he's posting about election politics; previously it tended to be about intelligence. We share a little more knowledge base with him, lately.
=====================================
Posted by: kim | October 26, 2008 at 01:17 PM
Hm ... I'm not sure that having snot in our bones is an argument I want to make, or that the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor.
Posted by: PD | October 26, 2008 at 01:24 PM
re: Narciso. Clarice and Kim, so that is why I understand his comments now! It's more about politics.
Narciso, I know you are kind of our "mystery" commenter, but could you tell us what part of the country you are in?
Posted by: centralcal | October 26, 2008 at 01:25 PM
Betcha Fla.
======
Posted by: kim | October 26, 2008 at 01:28 PM
Heh, occasional sneers at the Miami Herald.
===========================
Posted by: kim | October 26, 2008 at 01:30 PM
Thanks, Clarice. Didn't know that about AH.
Posted by: Charlie (Colorado) | October 26, 2008 at 01:32 PM
I've had two robocalls so far today. I hung up on the first after hearing, "Hello. This is Bob Dole." But as the second was from Rasmussen, I dutifully answered a series of taped questions re BO and JM. I believe this is the first time I may be part of a national poll, and participating was very satisfying.
Posted by: DebinNC | October 26, 2008 at 01:47 PM
You got it, Kim. Went down to little Havana and saw that "The One" has an office on 8th Street; that's galling to the nth degree. The Herald was always liberal on domestic politics, but they went into the tank even before the Iraq war started, nay, around the 2000 elections; roughly in the aftermath
of the "Elian rendition". Yet they have a strong point of view supporting Uribe and opposing Chavez; although their Spanish language portal is stronger in that regard.
They apparently don't want to see the similarity between events abroad and those close to home. The columnists, Reinhard, yesterday, warbling about Palin's extremism,
Hiassen, who has an entry today,How did Mahoney think he was going to get away with this? Hello, McFly, when you run the incriminating details on page B-12, what do you think is going to happen. The local political scene, isn't much better, the Mayor of Miami; is an admirer of the Chicago style gentrification under the Daley years; which has basically fallen apart in the subprime debacle. Former Mayor Martinez, who has a fighting chance, only because of some crazy court interpretation
of the Hobbs Act, was a Hillary standard bearer but is a minion of the One throwing
all sorts of garbage at the Diaz Balart
clan. Despite all the Category 6 headwinds, McCain is favored at least in the Hispanic
section of the County. Among Cuban,
Venezuelan, & Columbian Americans. Too many others, swallowing the Kool Aid, from all appearances
Posted by: narciso | October 26, 2008 at 01:51 PM
DebinNC,
What questions were asked? Does Rasmussen ask for your name or any other information that would enable them to verify your identity?
Posted by: Elliott | October 26, 2008 at 01:53 PM
Good going, Kim! And, thanks Narciso for letting us know what region of the country you are from.
A long time ago, I thought you might be like our PUK, posting from another country.
Posted by: centralcal | October 26, 2008 at 01:57 PM
DebinDC - did your caller ID show the call was from Rasmussen?
Posted by: centralcal | October 26, 2008 at 01:57 PM
ABC News - Michael Malone - The Death of Journalism
Posted by: M. Simon | October 26, 2008 at 02:03 PM
Anybody keeping track of the Gateway/LGF story about the LAT having a tape of Obama/Ayers/Kalidi at a Israel bashing dinner? Seems they refuse to release it.
Gee, and I thought the role of the press was to pretect and infrom the public.
Posted by: Verner | October 26, 2008 at 02:06 PM
The Rasmussen questions were taped ones first asking "Are you...?" So I choose the number corresponding to my gender, age, political affiliation, family income, educational level, but that's as specific as it got. Then the rest of the questions were about whether I'd vote for BO or JM, how favorably and unfavorably I viewed each, how open to change my opinion is, what issue was most important to me, who did I trust more, who did I fear more, etc. After the questions about me, all the other questions were about BO and JM, no one and nothing else. It took about 8 min. bi
Posted by: DebinNC | October 26, 2008 at 02:08 PM
Thanks, Deb.
Posted by: Elliott | October 26, 2008 at 02:10 PM
Centralcal, I don't have Caller ID on my home phone.
Posted by: DebinNC | October 26, 2008 at 02:10 PM
Anyone know what happened to NoQuarter? I saw on Hillbuzz that the site has been down a day or two, so out of curiosity I tried -- and it's not there.
Posted by: centralcal | October 26, 2008 at 02:12 PM
Thanks Deb - was curious about the caller ID, because I am assuming they would show that info if they expect to get callers to answer and respond, but you never know.
Posted by: centralcal | October 26, 2008 at 02:13 PM
She said she has very little doubt that the public polling is part of a “concerted voter suppression effort” by the MSM. She said IBD/TIPP was the only outfit doing public polling that was “worth a bucket of warm piss”.
LUN Scroll Down to "Worth A Bucket"
Posted by: M. Simon | October 26, 2008 at 02:40 PM
AP. US helicopter attacks Syrian village Not that there anything wrong with that,but why?
Posted by: jean | October 26, 2008 at 02:48 PM
MSimon: I agree and have been saying so in my blog for some time now.
Posted by: BobS | October 26, 2008 at 02:53 PM
Gave Classical Values a link on credit, MSimon.
Posted by: BobS | October 26, 2008 at 02:54 PM
centracal,
NQ has done a server change. The DNS has not migrated. You can get the front page by doing a google search and looking at the cached copy. Mine has entries from 26 Oct.
Posted by: M. Simon | October 26, 2008 at 03:02 PM
Thanks Bob!
Posted by: M. Simon | October 26, 2008 at 03:04 PM
If Obama wins (or better, if he doesn't), we could have more investigations than the Clinton years....Rezko, Ayers, campaign funny money, ACORN, Hollywood in kind support, the media....there's gonna be a whole lot to write about in coming months.....
The time has come for someone to put his foot down, and that foot is me!
Posted by: otter | October 26, 2008 at 03:08 PM
Anybody keeping track of the Gateway/LGF story about the LAT having a tape of Obama/Ayers/Kalidi at a Israel bashing dinner? Seems they refuse to release it.
I have a post about it today.
Posted by: Plumber's Pal | October 26, 2008 at 03:40 PM
NYT on Obama:
He constantly restates others’ contributions in his own invariably more eloquent words.
snip
When he was elected to the United States Senate in 2004, Mr. Obama wrote his second book, “The Audacity of Hope,” laying out his political philosophy. It meant getting only three or four hours of sleep at night, his editor said, but he insisted on writing the entire thing himself’.
So kind of NYT to stand up for Hobama's literary prowess. I can't recall reading about any other authors insisting on writing the entire thing themselves.
Posted by: bad | October 26, 2008 at 03:40 PM
Previous article Linked Under Name. (LUN)
Posted by: bad | October 26, 2008 at 03:41 PM
M.Simon, I gave P&C and Classical Values a link coupled with a related post from The Strata-Sphere.
Posted by: Plumber's Pal | October 26, 2008 at 03:43 PM
More NYT:
The senator has the discipline to avoid flaunting his oratorical gifts.
Noe we know the stammering is Hobama's self-restraint at work.
There is so much to laugh at in this article by Jodi Cantor. Pretty sure this was the bitch trolling Facebook for dirt on Cindy McCain.
LUN
Posted by: bad | October 26, 2008 at 03:49 PM
If he wins--until his minions shut down the alternate media--the opportunities for satire will be enormous.
Posted by: clarice | October 26, 2008 at 03:49 PM
New RNC Ad - Lapse in Judgment
Posted by: Plumber's Pal | October 26, 2008 at 03:56 PM
The article does refer to his friendship with Rashid Khalidi. No mention of Ayers. However, Valerie Jarrett is quoted as saying Obama wants to "suck the room of every idea." Such intense intellectual curiosity is hard to reconcile with his ignorance of Ayers and Dohrn, or his assumption of their rehabilitation.
Posted by: bad | October 26, 2008 at 04:05 PM
So, the 1.4 million registrations is down to 900,000.
Charlie, full story on the registration numbers. Shorter version: about a third are out right fraud, about a third were people already registered, and a third were "new voters". I'd be curious how PA and NJ thread the neddle on this. Rendell has made it known that Obama hasn't gotten the walking around money to the ward heelers, and I'm pretty sure the same could be said about NJ. The situation in Ohio looks to be pretty bad with fradulant voter registrations and even if Obama were to win there is nothing to stop a broad based investigation of ACORN's and the SoS activities (by the state and the feds-rifling JTP's files was the last straw-and don't be surprised if someone from the IRS gets caught too), which will eventually lead to Obama's campaign. The more people Obama were to fire associated with any federal investigations and the more people fired regarding state investigations, the greater the chances people will start to talk and it ends up with Gov. Strickland's impeachment.
It should be noted that Alexrod (Obama's campaign manager) has a whole stable of former clients who have been hauled off to jail including Eliot Spitzer. He also was the lead guy in the 2006 Dem congressional campaign (that Foley story was his best work followed closely with the Weldon story) and worked closely with Emanuel.
It amazes me that the GOP and the conservative side of the blogsphere generally, know the Dem's rule books and know their tactics (astroturfing), but we still always seem to believe the MSM (Dem talking points) and then get into circular firing squads for the Dems entertainment.
Re: Narciso. I've always pictured him as the "most interesting man in the world". I haven't had business in Miami in a while, but if I make it down there in the near future, I'd invite him to the Clevelander to have a beer.
Posted by: RichatUF | October 26, 2008 at 04:22 PM
Clarice;
If the dissidents in Rooshia were able to get their message out via the samidzat press, we can surely do better...besides, Obama's skin is so thin it's going to be fun puncturing his and Pelosi's and Reid's balloons and watching them try to use the power of the state to try and shut down criticism....There's no fool like a pol fool. There's whole iconography of old Soviet and Maoist propaganda to draw from that just perfect for these clownshoes.....
Posted by: otter | October 26, 2008 at 04:28 PM