Here at JOM the entire staff is committed to Keeping Hope Alive for John McCain. Or at least Keeping Suspense Alive until 10:0 PM Tuesday night, at which time the election will be called for Obama and we will collect on our pool.
So, allow me to share my latest cogent analysis brainwave regarding the current polls: the numbers favoring Obama are inflated by an historic enthusiam gap among McCain supporters .
When the phone rings and some pollster asks a prospective voter whether they can spare five minutes to discuss the election, Obama supporters are dismayed - only five minutes to bubble about Hope and Change? That will barely get them started!
McCain supporters, by way of contrast, don't want to spare even five seconds to discuss their guy's prospects, even thugh they have every intention of trudging to the polls to waste a vote on his lost cause.
Hence, the ghastly yet ultimately misleading poll numbers.
Well, that is my current fantasy - feel free to share yours.
your an idiot. This is the only blog that I really solely for the comments section and not for the commentary of the blogger. In trying to be witty the blog is unreadable, but the comments are good
Posted by: michael | November 03, 2008 at 11:08 AM
Nothing like coming to a good party and pissing in the punchbowl, Mike.
Posted by: Charlie (Colorado) | November 03, 2008 at 11:12 AM
Michael-
It's comments like yours that add brilliance to JOM. Please visit as often as you like.
Posted by: Rich Berger | November 03, 2008 at 11:16 AM
ah, the "your an idiot" post. Always brings a chuckle. Now sod off, swampy.
Posted by: StrawmanCometh | November 03, 2008 at 11:17 AM
This election is between hah hah I want McCain to win and watch this city burn and ha ha I want Baracky to win and let's shove some tasty socialisms down the GOP's throat I think.
Posted by: happyfeet | November 03, 2008 at 11:17 AM
Get lost Michael. WE would be nothing NOTHING without our fearless leader.
And your, "Your" should be "You're".
Why is it that mistake is always the sign of a troll.
Posted by: Jane votes Joe The Plumber | November 03, 2008 at 11:18 AM
So, anyway, you don't need that fancy an assumption, Tom. We beat it up pretty much in a previous thread, but the high-end polls are also the ones that have really unbalanced turnout assumptions, like 4/3 D/R. Real early turnout, supposedly including lots of the supermotivated, is really 10/9. Then notice that contrary to what the media tells you about McCain pulling back in, eg, Colorado, there's actually a lot of media running here --- just on the RNC's nickel. Sarah is here today and McCain is in Grand Junction tomorrow, and the most recent state-by-state polls have closed dramatically.
I think the bomber pilot thing is still apt: he knew he couldn't fight dollar-for-dollar, so he rode out the flack until he could release his weapons.
Posted by: Charlie (Colorado) | November 03, 2008 at 11:19 AM
Well here is a good comment! Polls historically underrepresent Republican support. Its consistent and always in one direction. Sometimes a little sometimes a lot. A lot being defined as more than Obama is showing to be up right now.
There is plenty of evidence that Obama has pushed his most ardent supporters to the polls early. That may mean that the remaining to vote electorate is much more Republican than on past electoral days. So with good weather, you may read that high turnout means good things for McCain.
No Democrat since Johnson in 1964 has gone beyond 50.1%. Jiminy Carter did that. Right after Nixon's pardon by Ford. When a Democrat polls 53-55 % then I will believe such stuff.
And never forget this country has a very long history of voting for the candidate in the middle, and that would not be Obama, who is the most liberal guy since at least McGovern.
Lets see the results. It may be a very narrow win for Democrats, but it will not surprise me if McCain actually hits the finish line first in about a photo finish leaning in perfectly in just enough states.
Posted by: Gmax | November 03, 2008 at 11:21 AM
Will we see the return of the Green State, Ohio?
Remember that? It's how the networks delayed calling the election for Bush last time.
Posted by: MayBee | November 03, 2008 at 11:24 AM
If you haven't read the essay that Instapundit linked in his post that TM cited above, I encourage you to do so. It's terrific.
The Left's Big Blunder
Posted by: Porchlight | November 03, 2008 at 11:30 AM
We should cut Mikey some slack,obviously "your an idiot" was meant to be his sign off.
"Yours,an idiot".See,doesn't that make more sense?
Posted by: PeterUK | November 03, 2008 at 11:31 AM
We need to change the foreign banking laws like the mortgage lending laws so we can invest in the New ONE Rule Global Economy Order.
It's not socialism. It's investing in our neighbors like Obama's GDP/GNP tax for foreign countries. We can chose which countries based on their polls for dems and Obama pallyness.
Kennedy's wife. Obama's wife. We'll write a neat song when Air force One crashes with all on board. Into a house beause of 435 problems with maintenance. It won't be polarizing, it will unify the country and the world like Kennedy. A profound reworking of the global.
Posted by: CVV2(financially disabled)Action!!!(policy)Crisis!!!(trouble) | November 03, 2008 at 11:38 AM
The leader (editorial) titled "It's time" in the new Economist Magazine just endorsed Obama. My reply:
Posted by: sbw | November 03, 2008 at 11:39 AM
Prediction:
Palin/Wurzelbacher hold OH, VA, FL, MO, NC. Pick up PA. Lose NM, IA, CO, NV.
P/W 281
Obama 257
Popular vote: Obama 50-49
Posted by: Sarah Joseph Ballard | November 03, 2008 at 11:46 AM
Paraphrase of a great comment on ace regarding O's coal policy: I promised you a chicken in every pot, not that you would be able to cook it.
I'm still predicting McCain landslide.
Posted by: Lori | November 03, 2008 at 11:54 AM
Here is my prediction lifted from the other thread...
...I have it Obama 276 McCain 262. We lose CO, NM, NV, ND, MT, keep all other Bush's states. Obama takes PA, in this scenario.
Posted by: Sue | November 03, 2008 at 11:54 AM
You have to read the Zombie essay. I had forgot about Asch. I wonder how many points they think they achieved with that one. Who would rather not vote if the lines are too long tomorrow - an Obama voter or a McCain voter. I go with McCain voters, they believe their vote is more necessary but the Obama voter is more likely to get their information from the MSM and sees their vote as un-necessary.
Posted by: Jack is Back! | November 03, 2008 at 11:56 AM
I'll stick with my prediction from a thread a few days back: Obama popular vote 47.9%, Dow Jones close tomorrow 9475 (not bad on that second one considering it was around 8400 when I made the prediction).
McCain carries PA, VA, OH, FL, NH, NC, NV - and that's all he needs. The coal story is getting a lot of attention where it counts (y'know - where there's coal miners).
Posted by: hrtshpdbox | November 03, 2008 at 12:04 PM
I think McC/P carry Colorado. Sarah Palin is real popular here, or so it seems to me.
Posted by: Charlie (Colorado) | November 03, 2008 at 12:07 PM
I hope beyond hope I get to be wrong as usual. You know I'm never right so be glad I didn't pick M/P. ::grin::
Posted by: Sue | November 03, 2008 at 12:08 PM
Dow closes about flat today.
52 percent McCain/Palin, 303-310 EV.
Posted by: Charlie (Colorado) | November 03, 2008 at 12:10 PM
Charlie-
Which polls are tightening in Colorado? I can't find recent polling....
Grand Junction_ Ireally don't understand sending Palin to a military town C. Springs and McCain to Grand Junction-I barely remember the place but it seems to me Palin would play better there and McCain better in C Springs-the AF Academy for gawd's sakes...
Oh wait, wait wait the AF guys have been PO'd at him lately.
nevermind.
Posted by: madawaskan | November 03, 2008 at 12:13 PM
'From one group of Americans to another.'
Obama's money changing was all from the US to overseas. McCain has to say it's all American.
'A vote for Obama is a vote for lucifer.'
So, Virginia isn't Arizona, but what if Obama lost all that trillion he spent on CNN?
Foreign banking is up 20%.
Posted by: Ce | November 03, 2008 at 12:16 PM
If Obama wins, you're going to see a major year end sell off in the markets by anyone who has any capital gains. Remember when Michael Eisner made sure he got his bonus before Clinton came into office?
Some will set up offshore companies and domicile the cash outside the country until a new administration reduces tax rates. The dems think they will increase revenue with tax increases, but the reality is that the smart money anticipates this and reacts accordingly.
In the middle of a recession, it's going to put Obama between a rock and a hard place. if it wasn't for the fact that the Dems are probably going to do even more damage, I'd sit back and laugh at them.
Posted by: matt | November 03, 2008 at 12:21 PM
We've heard endless talk about the racially healing balm of electing a black pres.
But what if Barry gets elected and actually enacts his boneheaded program and his presidency is an abject failure? Picking a radical lefty as our first black pres seems to me to have a good deal of potential to set race relations back a mighty long way.
Posted by: Barney Frank | November 03, 2008 at 12:23 PM
more from the aluminum foil hat crowd.....are these secret messages from the aliens or just the rantings of twisted minds?
Posted by: matt | November 03, 2008 at 12:24 PM
Barney,
That is what I thought.
Posted by: Sue | November 03, 2008 at 12:25 PM
Barney;
if Obama screws up it could set race relations back 50 years. 45-50% of the population is going for Mccain and they have their doubts, and if Obama doesn't walk on water, a lot of his adherents are going to be mightily disappointed. Further, if anyone actually begins to investigate things like campaign finance fraud, his biographical cheese holes, and Rezko, it could get ugly....then again, we could end like Argentina and have the Dems delude the country with utter BS.
Posted by: matt | November 03, 2008 at 12:28 PM
SO the original reason I came here to post.
Noticing something weird with PPP a Democrat pollster flooding the pool of poll places with data today...
Take Florida for instance-
I've already described how it would be impossible to poll absentee ballots from out of state-Florida has an unusually high amount due to the fact that they have over six military bases in the Panhandle alone with plenty of active duty military and retired hanging on to state citizenship there because Florida does not tax income...
I think this is even possibly a factor that would mess up a political party's internal polling.
BUT BESIDES ALL THAT-
PPP polling is conducting their polls by computer-actually more accurate and they have Obama only leading by 2% -
But they are reporting and conducting this poll with strange demographic representation-
53% women.
The last census reports 50.9% in Florida so let's give them that one, because it gets even more skewed than that.
They are reporting 75 % white.
Florida is 80%
They are reporting 13% Latino.
Florida is 20%. [that's maybe correct for voting who knows...]
But here is where I think they are really skewing it-
They are under-reporting whites by 5% but then-
they are reporting African American by 13%
Florida last census reports 15%.
The age reporting for their poll really gets weird the report-
25% over 65. [maybe they are the only ones answering their phones these days]
That's high even for the retiree state of Florida.
The latest census reports 16.8%
PublicPolicyPolling
Florida Census 2006
Posted by: madawaskan | November 03, 2008 at 12:30 PM
The economic crisis is just too big for any president. Obama's bank, Joe, has been giving away hundreds of billions every year. Now those five year entitlements are going on their second and third cycles. They are voted on before the US government budget and just before the presidential elections. Obama's bank works better than foreign banking. We are now broke and have to pay these foreign debts. The foreign banking works great. The money that is left over will not be allowed out of the US.
Posted by: CK | November 03, 2008 at 12:31 PM
I'm sticking with the JOM commenter party line that McCain's going to win, but so long as we're talking fantasies -
In the event of an Obama victory, mine is that Buckley, Noonan, etc (le réel conservateurs) have him all wrong, and he's not really a moderate centrist Democrat at all.
My fantasy is that all this time he's secretly been Milton Friedman on economics, James Madison on the proper extent of government, and Curtis LeMay on defense, and he'll pass the Fairness Doctrine and then invoke it to end funding to NPR and get Rush Limbaugh a seat on the board of CBS, right after he announces Attorney General Patrick Fitzgerald is moving to arrest Bill Ayers, Bernadette Dohrn, and everyone in government in Chicago down to the level of student council treasurer (plus various Cuban and Venezuelan nationals), based on information that has been gathered by the FBI's longest-serving, most successful informant ever since he applied to transfer from Occidental to Columbia.
I don't see why my fantasy is any less plausible than theirs.
Posted by: bgates | November 03, 2008 at 12:37 PM
Aliens are creations of lucifer. Those minds are made by Satan's device and they're monitored for luciferian acts on the earth like crashing planes or earthquakes, etc.
Obama's already enacted his boneheaded program. See, it's Congressional luciferianism and you just don't understand the election is about you and he's oppressed. We need 'the power' at the church or Congress or, maybe, other oppressed people to join the team and fight the evil oppression.
'For smaller brains.'
Posted by: knightsinspace | November 03, 2008 at 12:38 PM
PPP looks to have gotten the demographic breakdown for Ohio right.
Like Florida they are over polling over 65 but I think that might be right for voter turn out models.
They are also over-reporting females 53% when the census is saying 51% but that's a factor of longevity -I forgot that, and that would explain polling more females in a sample.
I still don't think that should be an excuse for them in Florida to under-report whites by a full 5% and then African Americans by only 2%.
Maybe statistically it doesn't make that big a difference but when you are trying to apply your results of a subset of 1,000 or so to the whole state of Florida a 2% difference matters-exponentially.
Posted by: madawaskan | November 03, 2008 at 12:40 PM
btw PPP a Democrat pollster has Ohio as too close to call.
Posted by: madawaskan | November 03, 2008 at 12:41 PM
My most interesting fantasies have absolutely nothing to do with this idiotic election. And, np, even if you beg I'm not sharing them.
Posted by: clarice | November 03, 2008 at 12:42 PM
madawaskan-
From the census data you'd need to back out the registered voter numbers.
Also Q2 on that poll 56% have already voted absentee or early? And that 14% of R's have defected to Obama?
I suppose we'll know when we know.
Posted by: RichatUF | November 03, 2008 at 12:46 PM
How does electing a black president rather than a white president bring joy to the Jewish,Asian,Hispanic,Middle Eastern and former Soviet Bloc communities,not forgetting the Native American community ?
Posted by: PeterUK | November 03, 2008 at 12:46 PM
OK-
I knew I would finally catch PPP in it.
They are reporting as of November 2nd a huge lead for Obama in Pennsylvania-by 8%
In their polling they report 85% white.
Census data from 2006 85.7%
Then they report 12% African American.
Census data from 2006 10.7%
I'm sorry but if you have a subset of the populace that is voting something like 97 to 1 for Obama and then you over-report that group by even 1% I think it could significantly mess up your data particularly when you are trying to get 1,000 or so people to represent the entire state.
Posted by: madawaskan | November 03, 2008 at 12:51 PM
Fantasy writing is lucifer. Science fiction is better. It's like Science tology or that luciferiansim is actually Satan's device, technology.
Florida lets you keep your house in bankruptcy.
Peter2012, It depends if they're luciferians.
Posted by: ispace | November 03, 2008 at 12:52 PM
Tom has a point in that most polls are based on sampling models of wildly enthusiastic Obama supporters turning out in record numbers and a very discouraged right of center base shrugging their shoulders. This was likely the case until Palin was nominated. There are two spikes in McCain support: the nomination and the vp debate.
The right of center voter is no longer discouraged, no longer without a reason to vote. Add in the scare factor of recent revelations about income redistribution, coal and energy as motivating factors and the model most reputable polls use to sample loses its meaning.
The other factor that has not been included is the willingness and ability of the left to committ fraud in order to win. This is a real possibility this year as reflected in the organized efforts by ACORN and others to pack the voter roles, make registration and compliance rules impossible to enforce (damn lawyers!) How much is this worth this year?
Posted by: AlanR | November 03, 2008 at 12:54 PM
RichatUF-
Well if I remember correctly they showed 17% of Democrats voting for McCain...
*ugh* speaking of backing out the registered voters....
I remember a Democrat saying that African Americans would be less represented by percent population as registered voters-not fully or more so as the PPP has it.
Of course if a Republican said that...
Posted by: madawaskan | November 03, 2008 at 12:56 PM
AlanR - just a nit but don't forget that SOME "damn lawyers" are spending a lot of time and energy trying to ensure that DOESN'T happen.
Just sayin'
Posted by: ex-democrat | November 03, 2008 at 01:00 PM
madawaskan,
Census numbers are no good - find the CNN exit polls and check those. By census breakout you wind up with way too many 18-29s and thus way too few over 30s. Same with the M/F split - there's a helluva lot more widows than widowers and once you adjust out the 18-29s, the 52-54% weighting is correct.
Posted by: Sarah Joseph Ballard | November 03, 2008 at 01:02 PM
lucifer!
Posted by: MayBee | November 03, 2008 at 01:04 PM
ex-dem,
I don't suppose that AlanR knows much about the crack JOM legal teams efforts.
I would like to thank those of you who are dedicating time over the next few days to ensuring that Comrade Zero doesn't steal the election. I'll be praying for all of you.
Posted by: Sarah Joseph Ballard | November 03, 2008 at 01:07 PM
'A vote for Obama is a vote for lucifer.'
Obviously, since Obama is rumoured to be the anti-Christ.
Posted by: PeterUK | November 03, 2008 at 01:08 PM
madawaskan-
I remember a Democrat saying that African Americans would be less represented by percent population as registered voters
Rick is our numbers guy, but this is a foggy memory. I think only about 10% of the AA community in FL is of voting age and registered and that they typically make up about 10% of the votes cast in previous presidential elections.
I also found the cross party defection for McCain to be unbelievable.
Posted by: RichatUF | November 03, 2008 at 01:08 PM
Obama and his dems are all lawyers.
Lawyers serve lucifer 'cause it was him who had you break the law. They want to see and they can help with the crime by using your life to see where he assumed you. He'll make sure you don't crash planes or do earthquakes or have shootings wherever you go like Bill, who was a lawyer..........
Posted by: equlisationpac | November 03, 2008 at 01:10 PM
Very complimentary photo of Obama (not) up on Drudge now; looks like O's about to take a ferocious bite out of the Statue of Liberty.
Posted by: hrtshpdbox | November 03, 2008 at 01:12 PM
Sarah-
Ya I already caught myself here on that-
Like Florida they are over polling over 65 but I think that might be right for voter turn out models.
They are also over-reporting females 53% when the census is saying 51% but that's a factor of longevity -I forgot that, and that would explain polling more females in a sample.
So let's try to explain this-
Why in Pennsylvania is PPP's sample size over-reporting the AA community by 1.3% Compared to the Census data.
What you would have to believe is not only are African Americans fully registered and completely going to turn out but that they will do that by a full 1.3% more than the actual census numbers in 2006.
I think that could significantly skew the results when the voter preference for that subset is running something like 95% in favor of the Democratic candidate.
Posted by: madawaskan | November 03, 2008 at 01:14 PM
Rich - "great" unbelievable, or "not credible" unbelievable?
Posted by: bgates | November 03, 2008 at 01:14 PM
RichatUF-
Holy cripes of course!
You'd also have to assume that they are all over 21...
Posted by: madawaskan | November 03, 2008 at 01:15 PM
Well oops! make that eighteen...
Damn you Nixon! heh sorta.
Posted by: madawaskan | November 03, 2008 at 01:16 PM
Palin has not been on a teleprompter for quite a while now. I'd like to see Obama give a speech, even one he gives day after day, hour after hour, without his teleprompter.
Posted by: Sue | November 03, 2008 at 01:18 PM
I know a lot of Republicans that curse Nixon for that one but really he was up against a Democrat majority and it was a hard argument to make that eighteen year olds could go to war but they coudn't vote.
Posted by: madawaskan | November 03, 2008 at 01:19 PM
J Pod at Commentary portends a disaster should McCain win the electoral vote and lose the popular vote:
"It is true that we don’t really have a national election but rather 50 separate state elections. It is true that the Electoral College is a constitutional body and the only official selector of the president. It is true that the existence of the Electoral College is crucial to preserving some sort of balance in the United States between the small states and the larger states, and serves as yet another mediating institution — another means by which unbridled political power is checked.
All this is true. But it is beside the point in 2008. The legitimacy questions that dogged Bush would dog McCain to a far greater extent, especially with a Democratic Senate arguing and acting on the argument that the election results require its members to exercise the advise-and-consent provisions of the Constitution in blocking all McCain appointments that do not represent the more liberal nature of the overall electorate.
A McCain presidency under these conditions would be a model of institutional paralysis. With the exception of the veto, which McCain would of course relish more than any other presidential power, he would be among the weakest chief executives in modern times, if not the weakest. And it would be interesting to see whether the Electoral College itself could survive it. (It would be abolished, presumably, not by amending the Constitution but by passing laws in the states requiring electors to vote for the nationwide vote winner; such a law already exists in a few of them.)
Since we have nothing to do but speculate until tomorrow, that’s my morning speculation."
Posted by: clarice | November 03, 2008 at 01:20 PM
'04 FL turnout -
AA - 12%
White - 70%
Latino - 15%
Clarice,
I have spreadsheets on '04 exit polling ready for IN, FL, NC, VA, OH and PA. Do you want me to round up any others for tomorrow night? Any suggestions from other commenters? (Keep it clean folks.)
Posted by: Sarah Joseph Ballard | November 03, 2008 at 01:20 PM
Is it just me, or has someone taken a mind-altering substance and been making semi-comprehensible posts under names like CVV2, knightsinspace, and equlisationpac?
Posted by: PapayaSF | November 03, 2008 at 01:21 PM
O gives hill the finger yet again:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zhkq11UExcw
Hope Nutter and Rendell saw that.
Posted by: clarice | November 03, 2008 at 01:23 PM
PapayaSF,
You don't like the JOM 'Ghost in the Machine'? [S]he is a regular here. Think of it is an encounter on a walk across Justin Herman Plaza.
Posted by: Sarah Joseph Ballard | November 03, 2008 at 01:25 PM
Rick, what a lovely thing to do..Whatever you do will be helpful..Along with those spreadsheets, if yo have it handy--it would be useful to see what the final was.
Posted by: clarice | November 03, 2008 at 01:25 PM
Time to draw the media line, so I get my mind off the election a little. JOM is my only source of political news starting right now, and ending when the winner is confirmed tomorrow or Wednesday; no more RCP articles, or television, or Drudge - just you guys. So say some good stuff, y'all.
Posted by: hrtshpdbox | November 03, 2008 at 01:26 PM
I am very curious how this blog will read after election day. In particular, I am curious how quickly people will become enthusiasts of Patrick Fitzgerald. (I was amazed by the sudden emergence of Larry Johnson as a man of wisdom and sagacity back in June/July...)
Seriously, I am hoping TM decides to do a little more economy blogging and a little less GOP version of Joe Conason blogging. I might comment less (since I admit to a McCain-like ignornace on most economic matters), but I might be better informed.
OK. Y'all can resume your regularly scheduled Obama bashing and Palin praising. I hope you enjoy today; but I really hope, for the country's sake, you have a really bad day (in a political sense) tomorrow.
See y'all in a couple of days. I promise not to gloat -- but I did eat a heap o' crow 4 years ago, so maybe I'll gloat...a little.
Posted by: Appalled | November 03, 2008 at 01:26 PM
"O gives hill the finger yet again"
I can't watch youtubes from the office; was it anything like when O covered his face with his hand just before saying Sarah was a lipstick'ed pig?
Posted by: hrtshpdbox | November 03, 2008 at 01:27 PM
Fox's exit polll shows an even split on those already voted. However, both pundits said no way. Even though they agreed with all the other numbers. Huh?
Posted by: Sue | November 03, 2008 at 01:33 PM
Wow. Obama flipped McCain the finger like he did Hillary and Drudge has the shot front and center.
Posted by: Sue | November 03, 2008 at 01:36 PM
A luciferian had me seeing the matrix again. It must be urgent, like police are going to arrest him. Equaled payments here. I mean he assaulted my body. We should go to court so i can sue.
The hardware store wants you to keep your house.
Posted by: importlawsforeignfoods | November 03, 2008 at 01:37 PM
Sorry--it was an oldie--here's the new one--he flips off McCain:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBMdWxcFXQg
Posted by: clarice | November 03, 2008 at 01:37 PM
hrt..the critical part is on Drudge--same shtick--punk idiocy.
Posted by: clarice | November 03, 2008 at 01:38 PM
You can gloat on victory day if you promise to eat crow when he has failures.
Getting in office isn't the end game, you know.
Posted by: MayBee | November 03, 2008 at 01:38 PM
Clarice,
When you write "it would be useful to see what the final was", are you referring to the '04 state by state total votes? I have all those already. Percentage, vote count and margin. I've been toying with new registration numbers but I don't believe that they'll be useful tomorrow.
Posted by: Sarah Joseph Ballard | November 03, 2008 at 01:38 PM
Sarah-
So according to your turn out numbers PPP a democrat pollster is over sampling the African American community by a full 1% in an election year where they will be voting almost 97% to 1% for the Democrat.
Given those conditions oversampling a subset of the electorate by 1% in a sample of only a 1,000 or so representative voters it is highly likely that the results are significantly skewed in favor of the Democrats.
Never mind that they aren't bothering to poll Florida's absentee ballots which number in excess of 680,000.....
btw they have Florida for Obama by only 2% even though they haven't polled absentee voters.
Connie Mack was swept to victory in 1984 because the Republicans have a HUGE advanage with the military who vote absentee in Florida.
Remember the military is polling in favor of McCain by 68%.
Posted by: madawaskan | November 03, 2008 at 01:40 PM
You never saw me in this batch:" (I was amazed by the sudden emergence of Larry Johnson as a man of wisdom and sagacity back in June/July...)"
Nor would I defend Ftizgerald's treatment of Libby--OTOH it would be tons of fun watching the bums in Congress treat his firing as aok...
I think Johnson may be behind the stupid API story--he's surely behind the whitey tape carpola..anyone who pays any attention to what he says gets ehat he deserves.
Posted by: clarice | November 03, 2008 at 01:41 PM
Ted Stevens Trial Update
Local news is reporting that the Juror who had to leave jury deliberations last week and fly to California to take care of her sick Dad has admitted that she lied to the Judge. Her Dad was not sick, but she wanted to watch the Breeder's Cup horse race, so she lied to the Judge so she could skip out on deliberations. She was replaced and a few hours later they unanimously voted to convict. Don't suppose it changes much legally, but just thought you folks might like to know a bit more about the "peers" that convicted Ted Stevens. My guess is that this helps Stevens a little bit votewise among Alaskans, because it fits perfectly into a certain stereotype held by many Alaskans of what sort of Justice an outsider is likely to receive in a DC Courthouse.
Posted by: Daddy | November 03, 2008 at 01:41 PM
I meant 2004 state by state totals--it would be interesting to compare the finals with the exit polls.
Posted by: clarice | November 03, 2008 at 01:42 PM
As we anticipated, the news and pollers are pushing the story that it's all over.
One fly in the ointment for them is the Fox poll showing 48% to 47% in favor of BHO among early voters.
If that is accurate, it is not good news for BHO.
On a personal note, Clarice. Would you please email Hit's email address? My wife developed atrial fibrillation over the weekend and I have to take her to the Docs today. The guy running the NC legal team has told me not to come to Charlotte under the circumstances because "they have plenty already there and more on the way".
He did say it is going to be a cliff-hanger and will depend on the GOTV effort tomorrow.
Posted by: jimrhoads aka vnjagvet | November 03, 2008 at 01:45 PM
Even better; The lying Juror in the Ted Stevens case is a Paralegal.
Posted by: Daddy | November 03, 2008 at 01:47 PM
Plus you are basing your info off exit polls that were notoriously wrong in 2000 and 2004.
College students standing outside of polling places with clipboards.
Posted by: madawaskan | November 03, 2008 at 01:47 PM
I would hope anybody that has noticed Larry's record on the Whitey tape, etc, will take it into consideration when they evaluate the use of him as a source re:Plame.
The press used him as an expert source.
The cable news had him on frequently.
They seem to have wised up about his trustworthiness about the same time they wised up about Cindy Sheehan's political accumen.
Posted by: MayBee | November 03, 2008 at 01:47 PM
Exit polls that some democrats admitted to trying to game.
Probably not to hard to get democratic college kids into entry level jobs doing clipboard exit polling and phone calling.
Posted by: madawaskan | November 03, 2008 at 01:49 PM
Unfortunately, 'It's the economy, stupid.' just about every time:
Posted by: Patrick R. Sullivan | November 03, 2008 at 01:53 PM
I really don't understand sending Palin to a military town C. Springs and McCain to Grand Junction
The Western Slope usually feels kind of cut off; it's 300 miles away, over the mountains, and very sparse compared to Denver, as well as very red. I would get that having a real live War hero and Presidential Candidate in GJ will be a very impressive thing to see happen.
Posted by: Charlie (Colorado) | November 03, 2008 at 01:54 PM
Daddy, it is obvious that Dem pols have a totally free rein in DC and Reps might as well be tried in Iran.
Posted by: clarice | November 03, 2008 at 01:56 PM
"I am very curious how this blog will read after election day."
The Obama SD will be going through the ISPs,the JOMsters carted off to re-education camps.All except you and me Appalled.
Posted by: PeterUK | November 03, 2008 at 02:02 PM
Make that ^Probably *not too* hard.^
Getting idealistic kids to cheat because those Republicans are going to steal it via Diebold, or to offset the racists...
The Ohio district attorney already had to threaten them with prosecution for illegally registering some of Obama's out of state campaign workers.
They have no scruples-this is the same party that scrutinized and challenged every absentee ballot that came from guys serving overseas in the Florida Panhandle.
Nothing is beneath these vermin never forget it.
I saw it happen-it was sickening and they had to charter lawyers in from Altanta paying $40,000 alone to fly them in-because they could not get one local lawyer to do their evil dirty work.
Think about that.
No local lawyer would do it, not for any
amount of money.
What an absolute bunch of pigs.
Posted by: madawaskan | November 03, 2008 at 02:03 PM
madawaskan - the final CNN exits tabulate to the final results, not the early results. The "early call" garbage exits were extrapolations from very limited samples and you're absolutely correct about their minimal value. Obviously, there is bound to be sampling error and error due to improper evaluation of the makeup of the absentee and early voter population.
The "fantastic increase" of early voting promised by Comrade Zero has not materialized this year, according to Professor McDonald's study,so the '04 exits remain as the 'best available' data. They are certainly far better than census data which does not reflect the makeup of the electorate at all.
Posted by: Sarah Joseph Ballard | November 03, 2008 at 02:03 PM
I might comment less
The rest of us are going to have to do our best to soldier on somehow.
Posted by: bgates | November 03, 2008 at 02:04 PM
Charlie-
True. I lived in Colorado for maybe 14 years off and on-never got to Grand Junction...
Posted by: madawaskan | November 03, 2008 at 02:05 PM
I just don't see how you can sit there with a serious face and throw out the 48/47 split on those already voted and then go on and discuss the rest of the poll numbers as if they are set in stone.
Posted by: Sue | November 03, 2008 at 02:05 PM
Reason to be optimistic? Zero is not running the campaign of one who has it wrapped up. Zero is going to battleground states, and is not making (as far as I can see; please correct me if I am wrong) appearances with Dems in jeopardy (such appearances being typically made by candidates who have their own contests wrapped up).
Posted by: Thomas Collins | November 03, 2008 at 02:07 PM
"Obama flipped McCain the finger like he did Hillary and Drudge has the shot front and center."
Criminey, I just swore off Drudge and you've got me tempted to go take a look!
Posted by: hrtshpdbox | November 03, 2008 at 02:08 PM
Barack looks so Presidential when he flips the bird like that! It so demonstrates that he has the "temperment" to be President and C in C!
/snark
Posted by: centralcal | November 03, 2008 at 02:10 PM
hrtspdbox: don't just look at the picture, play the video and you'll see how precise and deliberate it was.
Posted by: centralcal | November 03, 2008 at 02:11 PM
Barrack "Flipper" Obama
Posted by: PeterUK | November 03, 2008 at 02:18 PM
"don't just look at the picture, play the video and you'll see how precise and deliberate it was."
I'll definitely give it a look when I'm home (the company I work for probably figures we'd all be watching a lot of rock videos if they didn't block youtube). Think the story will get any exposure to those who don't get their news online?
Posted by: hrtshpdbox | November 03, 2008 at 02:20 PM
hrtshpdbox,
Obama could take a crap on their lawn, and spread it on their mailbox and they would still vote for him. If they aren't freaked out by him at this point, nothing will change their minds.
Posted by: Sue | November 03, 2008 at 02:23 PM
"Nothing is beneath these vermin never forget it."
I wish people would wake up to the fact that the left is playing for keeps.If they don't get you this time,they will get you next time.The effect is cumulative,a bit of legislation here,an appointment there,a treaty.The goal is socialism,that parasitical, necrotising,destroyer of nations.
Posted by: PeterUK | November 03, 2008 at 02:24 PM
OK-
Just one last time.
PPP Democrat pollster for Missouri they are polling-
13.3 % African American
11.5% African American in 2006 Census data.
8% was the voter turn out for African Americans in 2004 Presidential election according to CNN...
Posted by: madawaskan | November 03, 2008 at 02:26 PM
So ya justify oversampling by 5.3%...
Wow.
Posted by: madawaskan | November 03, 2008 at 02:27 PM
"Obama could take a crap on their lawn"
They want him to crap on their lawns.Hell,they want him to crap on them.it's the Liberal way.
Posted by: PeterUK | November 03, 2008 at 02:28 PM