The Hunt For A Red-Hot October

NO, we aren't looking for a red-hot October here!  Not yet, anyway.  We are mocking NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), as explained in the Torygraph:

A surreal scientific blunder last week raised a huge question mark about the temperature records that underpin the worldwide alarm over global warming. On Monday, Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), which is run by Al Gore's chief scientific ally, Dr James Hansen, and is one of four bodies responsible for monitoring global temperatures, announced that last month was the hottest October on record.

This was startling. Across the world there were reports of unseasonal snow and plummeting temperatures last month, from the American Great Plains to China, and from the Alps to New Zealand. China's official news agency reported that Tibet had suffered its "worst snowstorm ever". In the US, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration registered 63 local snowfall records and 115 lowest-ever temperatures for the month, and ranked it as only the 70th-warmest October in 114 years.

Hmm.  On the flip side, the NY Times was telling us in late October that, at least in parts of the Northeast including the greatest city in the world, it was one of the warmer Octobers on record, so the news of a globally warm October may not have come as a cold slap in the face to plenty of media types.  But let's press on:

So what explained the anomaly? GISS's computerised temperature maps seemed to show readings across a large part of Russia had been up to 10 degrees higher than normal. But when expert readers of the two leading warming-sceptic blogs, Watts Up With That and Climate Audit, began detailed analysis of the GISS data they made an astonishing discovery. The reason for the freak figures was that scores of temperature records from Russia and elsewhere were not based on October readings at all. Figures from the previous month had simply been carried over and repeated two months running.

Ouch.  But the story only starts there - at Watts Up With That, mentioned above, weather anomalies from Russia are getting a long look.  Let's just say that questions have been raised - this is taken from Watts Up:

In most Russian cities,  district-level combined heat and power plants (Russian: ТЭЦ, Тепло-электро централь) produce more than 50 %  of the nation’s electricity and simultaneously provide hot water for  neighbouring city blocks.

And that heat is passed around the city by above-ground steam pipes, not all of which are insulated.  Hence, it is *possible* that warm weather anomalies in Russian reporting are simply picking up man-made heat.  From Watts Up:

Maybe it’s the steam pipes. We need to send somebody to Russia to find out. Of the many station lat/lons I looked at, Verhojansk was the only one I found with enough Google Earth resolution to see the steam pipes. Maybe the heart of our Russian temperature anomaly lies in central heating.

I suspect the question has occurred to them, but I wonder what would "global" warming data look like if the Russian data were discarded?

Comments

[kim]

We all hope this is a tipping point.....of Hansen's influence.
=======================================

[jeanedcrusader]

Totally shocking. Who makes these charts? Does anyone check them, or even give them a cursory glance as they come off the printer? If it's information like this that's the basis for national decisions about global warming, I hope Obama's illuminati administration thinks twice before dumping billions of dollars into energy programs--important,yes, but if these records are disproved, not that important under the circumstances. Our economy needs repair more than lowered temperatures.

[RichatUF]

Is TM being droll? The NYT article is from last year...Hansen's (Soros' sockpuppet) climate data replicated Sept data...

I could see Obama move him to a place in the administration-can only imagine what sort of damage he could do with real levers of power.

[RichatUF]

Maybe move him to the Bureau of Labor Statistics or the Census Bureau...he could bring his special sauce to the amazingly shrinking unemployment rate during the Obamanation or a magical 12 million new voters for dems in all the prog fifes.

Good times. I for one look forward to the Democrats surge to shore up their War on Weather.

[SteveMG]

Googling the delightful town of Verhojansk, I find this less than delightful description:

Town in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), eastern Siberia, Russian Federation; population (1990) 2,000. Verkhoyansk is situated on the River Yana, 650 km/404 mi northeast of Yakutsk. It was once considered the coldest place on earth, with a mean annual temperature of -70°C [that's -94°F], but even lower temperatures have since been recorded at Oimyakon to the southeast, and in Antarctica.

The September temperatures (which were repeated for October) used by GISS were a balmy -22°C instead of the normal -70°C.

No one caught it.

Quality control that even the LA Times would be embarassed for.

[PaulL]

The problem is how slow the general public is in changing their mind on what they think everyone knows.

Global warming has been beaten into their heads since 1988. To many, it's laughable to think that it isn't happening.

Now if Kim were given a big enough megaphone . . .

[Warmearthers`]

October was the worst retail sales in history or something.

'Seen the steam pipes'

[clarice]

I recall reading a long time ago that many of the thermometers being used to measure temps around the world are placed inappropriately near things like steam pipes so I find this unsurprising..What do facts mater when you're proselytizing for friends who stand to make billions at this latest church of the dimwitted.

[Paul Zrimsek]

I doubt that recent warming trends can be explained by Soviet-era heating plants.

[RichatUF]

And to go OT for a bit...the President elect isn't wasting anytime in his goal to help the Middle East eliminate Israel and fail in his foreign policy as he is placing trust in the muslim world and increasing terrorism against American interests globally (flagged up at Ace's):

Barack Obama is to pursue an ambitious peace plan in the Middle East involving the recognition of Israel by the Arab world in exchange for its withdrawal to pre-1967 borders...Obama intends to throw his support behind a 2002 Saudi peace initiative endorsed by the Arab League...

Anything to erase the humiliation of the Six Day War from the tender psyches of the Muslim losers. Why do I see Netanyahu winning a major victory and an upcoming 4 year war? What is that adage: the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.

[SteveMG]

I doubt that recent warming trends can be explained by Soviet-era heating plants.

The (general) argument is that with the collapse of the Soviet Union that the maintenance/quality control of many of these ground stations vanished (no funding, et cetera). People, understandably, had more important things to worry about.

How else to explain the enormous anomalities in the recorded temperatures?

[Wa]

'compounded error' 'folly'

Dim wits. Yes, they had a special and it proved that ancient females could not have large brained babies, which is what they had; so lucifer's eye was not popular with the ancients 'cause females couldn't allow the brain enlargements, but, after we evolved (seeing shit with our eyes closed creating larger brains in the females and their hips), the females had large brained lucifer's eye babies. The large brained luciferians are compounded errors. They are, in fact, dim witted at birth, genetically inferior, which is why they see shit and their brains enlarge..............

[Paul Zrimsek]

The only "anomaly" Watt mentions that calls for an explanation is the copying of this year's September data into October. Everything else looks like pretty ordinary month-to-month variability.

Barring some evidence that those steam pipes used to be insulated, I'd expact that any effect from reduced maintenance would be in the direction of spurious cooling, due to shutdowns like that at Krasnoyarsk. I'd also settle for evidence of weather stations being moved closer to the steam pipes (Watt has specialized in documenting similar cases in the US network).

[clarice]

Rich, Look at the bright side. The president-elect has so little threat credibility that netenyahu (likely to be in charge) can ignore him at will.

[clarice]

**Netanyahu****

[Rick Ballard]

There is a conflation of elements to the story going on which detracts from the central point - "On Monday, Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), which is run by Al Gore's chief scientific ally, Dr James Hansen, and is one of four bodies responsible for monitoring global temperatures, announced that last month was the hottest October on record."

The key factor is the issuance of the statement "that last month was the hottest October on record" by propagandists purporting to be scientists who neglected to verify the foundation upon which this particular piece of propaganda was constructed. The foundation proved to be non-existent (and its non-existence easily verifiable) so the pseudo scientists are exposed as credulous nincompoops.

The element concerning proper UHI adjustment for stations surrounded by steam pipes is secondary. The steam pipes themselves are a small part of the "problem". The larger part is the fact that steam heat is most easily controlled by cracking a window open when the temperature within the poorly insulated building and/or living unit reaches the "Bake" setting. No money is thrown away by doing so because the steam heat is "free" in a truly socialist state. Just like the health care. The heat released through opening a window and the poor insulation quality of the units themselves constitute the major components of the heat island.

Skip the steam pipes - the fraud is in the improper UHI adjustment. There is no way in the world that a "one size fits all" adjustment can be considered more than a [S]WAG - with the S properly elided.

[Barney Frank]

I recall reading a long time ago that many of the thermometers being used to measure temps around the world are placed inappropriately near things like steam pipes so I find this unsurprising

Anthony Watts first claim to fame is his ongoing audit of the instruments used in the US for our temperature records. So far, the results, in what is presumed to be the best network in the world, are quite dismal.
surfacestations.org is his site on weather stations.

[Pofarmer]

Hansen and Kennedy Jr. together could completely strangle our economy without Obama lifting a finger.

[Pofarmer]

Ya know, Hansen is still given credibility. However, while he was railing in 2008 about how the world was gonna burn up it was cooler by his own numbers than when he gave his first speech in 1998. Lucia at "The Blackboard"(you can get a link from Watts up) has done the math and all three of the scenario's proffered in 1998 regarding CO2 and warming have been proven false. The real world just isn't living up to the models.

[clarice]

Thanks, Barney..My recollection did not extend to the author of that report or where it had been posted.
Rick, having spent time in the old USSR, I can confirm what you said. No matter how cold it is outside, inside the buildings are so hot they are intolerable. And, yes, because it costs nothing there is no incentve or money allocated for insulation .
I remember sitting in the waiting section at the airport in Lviv in winter in a room that was conservatively 85 degrees hot and in a hotel room in Riga so boiling that I left the window open only to have the dzhernia who was listening in on my room( thru the turned off "radio") dash in and shut the rattling window which she'd heard thru her ear phones.

[clarice]

Oh--and that steam is created by burning very low quality coal so the air outside is thick with particulates and practically unbreathable.

[Charlie (Colorado)]

The real world just isn't living up to the models.

Hate it when that happens.

[SteveMG]

The only "anomaly" Watt mentions that calls for an explanation is the copying of this year's September data into October.

From my reading of this, Watts also cites (according to the data he uses) anomalies for January 2007 and March 2008. He also quotes from an e-mail that posits that there was a high and very high number of "anomalous temperatures" over a nine month period from '07 to '08.

He's not just using the recent September/October temperatures which were the same measurements and were not caused by ground stations errors.

Anyway re "the pipes", it's obvious that Watts is brainstorming on these seemingly odd readings. His main argument - made before - is over the reliability of these ground stations.

[RichatUF]

clarice-

I'm very worried about the Obama's Administration in waiting letting out this snowflake. This article over at American Thinker has been stuck in my head for a while, though it only looks at the comparison between Cold War South Africa and the GWOT Pakistan. In Obama's AIPAC speech he rejected the outright comparison of Israel and Cold War era South Africa, though many of the New Left would like to see Israel treated in a similiar manner and there has been a long term strategy to do so.

It would work like the following: the Obama Administration will put on the table a set of demands knowing that the Israelis would reject them and his administration will only pressure Israel. He will then use his political power (and intelligence power through agit-prop measures conducted by the CIA) at his disposal to begin making the explicit comparison to the "racist South Africa". The "peace talks" will fail and another wave (The Third Intifida?) of terror will engulf Israel (just in time for Durban II which he'll make a point of highlighting). An uncritical media and Islamist sympathizing Obama Administration will mainline all the propaganda for Islamist terrorists whenever Israel conducts military operations against them (see the media treatment of the Israel-Hezbollah War, before the Green Helmet Guy blogstorm or Israel's action against Hamas).

I'm sure the Islamist terrorists surrounding Israel will way overreach and the Islamist sympathizing Obama Administration, talking out of both sides of its mouth, will stumble. Right out of the gate though, the Obama Administration is laying the foundation for another Middle East wide war.

[rubbermaidmetalrobots]

We're all seeing shit now and the things must be mad. What you guys forgot is it's genetic. They are genetic retards(luciferians) and that can't change. They're born like that, always will be and want to hit people who are superior, so they force you to see shit or pain or strokes.

They're probably mad about the pipes too, since they want to 'make' everything.

Hey, maybe someone should win the lottery?

[clarice]

You may be right, Rich, but I think he's an utter incompetent , way over his head and I see not a single instance in his career of consistency or strength to carry thru on something over determined opposition.Do you?

[RichatUF]

Sorry I tried to hijack the thread-it wasn't my intention.

[RichatUF]

clarice-

I think he's an utter incompetent , way over his head and I see not a single instance in his career of consistency or strength to carry thru on something over determined opposition

You may be right, but it isn't only Obama, it's the Orientalist New Left coloration of his entire Middle East staff and the majority of the State Department. He'll be in an echo chamber where he and his staffers might not believe or be unmoved by a determined opposition to his Islamist sympathizing policies. And he'd probably cave to even more radical Russian and KSA demands in the first instance of a "unified" oil embargo. YMMV.

[clarice]

It is a worry..always has been. Short of demolishing the DoS though, that problem has existed for a long time..even before 1948.

[verner]

Anyone who has ever been to China knows how important it is to have clean air. I'm not opposed to it in the least--but I'm so utterly sick of global warming hysteria. Nothing but a racket to control behavior that nannie state neo-marxists don't like.

If every man woman and child died tomorrow, we would still have global warming. We've had warm periods and mini ice ages several times in the last 800 years. Nothing anyone can do about it.

They still can't explain that global spike in methane last year--a natural process that had nothing to do with man. And how about those sun spots!

[PeterUK]

"He will then use his political power (and intelligence power through agit-prop measures conducted by the CIA) "

CIA? So Obama is knackered?

[PeterUK]

As to the Russian data,the cock up or the conspiracy.

"I can't be arsed going out there to get the readings,use the figures from last month".

or

"Send the wrong figures,Hanson will bankrupt America".

[clarice]

PUK, you are so evil..Smooches.

[TCO]

Watts is a fruitcake. Ask him how his paint experiment is going. Ask him how he's doing with Basil's solar silliness. The guy claims window airconditioners 20 feet from an outdoor sensor are grossly affecting results. He's the equivalent of rightie nutcakes who still think Saddam had WMD. He just beleives what he wants to be true. Like most of you pussies. The only time you man up and are truthful is when we make a bet out fo things, so you have to put your wallet with your bullshit.

[RichatUF]

PUK-

CIA? So Obama is knackered?

When I put on my conspiracy hat, I go top shelf. However, the Clinton Administration used a not so velvet glove to get Ehud Barak elected and drum up "support" for his failed round of Camp David talks, and Obama will make sure he gets his cronies salted into top positions at the agency.

[George S]

"Hey Ralph, what would you say a bad temperature is?"

"I dunno, a hundred three hundred four...what's my temperature?"

"blubber blubber sob sob"

"What's my temperature Norton? WHAT'S MY TEMPERATURE!"

"blubber blubber... A hundred 'n eleven!!!"

"A hundred eleven??!!!?? I'm dyiiiiing!...let me see thermometer...wait I can't see in this light..."

"Here, Ralph...."

"Norton?...Did you hold the lighter to the thermometer?..."

"Well, yeah...it was dark...(epiphany) Ralph! you not dying!"

Life does imitate art.

[kim]

TCO, you are a sad pitiful putz. Leif Svalgaard has placed Anthony Watts' blog, Whats Up With That in nomination for Kevin Aylward's Best Science Blog with the one word comment: honesty.
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[kim]

Oh, yeah, Leif sneers at your pal, Tamino, and hasn't got good things to say about RealClimate, either. You've allowed your resentment about Steve McIntyre to warp your mind.
=====================================

[kim]

A little side story for the folks here. Steve put up with TCO's aggravation for months if not years before finally banning him. TCO is plenty bright, but the evil green monster of jealousy is eating his guts.

TCO, you're dead wrong about Plame and about the threat from Saddam about WMD, too. But your heart's in the right place about Palin.
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[cathyf]

The reason for the freak figures was that scores of temperature records from Russia and elsewhere were not based on October readings at all. Figures from the previous month had simply been carried over and repeated two months running.

Did I understand that? The "hottest Oct on record" wasn't constructed with September temps, but August temps?

[matt]

unfortunately, it was probably some apparatchik screwing up again...A long and distinguished history of this in Russia...."send them last month's numbers, Vlashmnuchkin, they'll never know...."

[truthynesslover]

Because somebody in Russia was lazy about recording the temperatures...there is no global climate change! Glaciers are not melting at a record pace! It's all a scam to get money!

It's really weird that people are so convinced that scientists are systematically lying just to get the small amount of money available for funding, when energy companies will pay much better wages to pass on whatever fiction they've invented most recently.

Scientists really are clever enough to know that the Earth has had Ice Ages in the past. What is alarming about the current warming trend is how quickly it is happening.

Most of the anti-global warming talk is comprised of overheated ad hominem attacks, combined with a good old-fashioned middle school understanding of science.
Posted by RickD on November 16, 2008 5:44 PM
Report this comment

Oh my life NASA made a mistake and ended up with results that were incorrect by 0.02 degrees celsius. That means every claim that any scientist has ever tried to make must be wrong
My husband is a professor and researcher believe me not alot of money in in these fields.He could be making alot more money working for a privete company so this idea that people are in research to make money is absurd.

[Antimedia]

I doubt that recent warming trends can be explained by Soviet-era heating plants.

There is no recent warming trend. In fact, global temperatures, much to the chagrin of the acolytes of the church of global warming, are headed in the opposite direction.

In fact we now have to mount an enormous effort to combat global cooling if we are to have any hope at all of saving the planet.

[SteveMG]

Like most of you pussies. The only time you man up and are truthful is when we make a bet out fo things, so you have to put your wallet with your bullshit.

Sure, someone who writes like a 14-year-old is going to convince others of the soundness of his views.

That's not arguing in bad faith; it's arguing in childish faith.

[PeterUK]

"TCO is plenty bright, but the evil green monster of jealousy is eating his guts."

You're carrying the figures over again,Turd Commentary Operator is a penilecephalic

[truthynesslover]

Because somebody in Russia was lazy about recording the temperatures...there is no global climate change! Glaciers are not melting at a record pace! It's all a scam to get money!

It's really weird that people are so convinced that scientists are systematically lying just to get the small amount of money available for funding, when energy companies will pay much better wages to pass on whatever fiction they've invented most recently.

Scientists really are clever enough to know that the Earth has had Ice Ages in the past. What is alarming about the current warming trend is how quickly it is happening.

Most of the anti-global warming talk is comprised of overheated ad hominem attacks, combined with a good old-fashioned middle school understanding of science.
Posted by RickD on November 16, 2008 5:44 PM
Report this comment

Oh my life NASA made a mistake and ended up with results that were incorrect by 0.02 degrees celsius. That means every claim that any scientist has ever tried to make must be wrong

[truthynesslover]

"A GISS spokesman lamely explained that the reason for the error in the Russian figures was that they were obtained from another body, and that GISS did not have resources to exercise proper quality control over the data it was supplied with."
What exactly is Mr Booker expecting? That James Hansen travels constantly around the globe to check whether the Russians read their thermometers properly?

"This is an astonishing admission: the figures published by Dr Hansen's institute are not only one of the four data sets that the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) relies on to promote its case for global warming, but they are the most widely quoted, since they consistently show higher temperatures than the others."
They don't show higher temperatures, but higher temperature anomalies. And the reason for this is that GISS relates to an earlier, and thus cooler base period. Obviously Mr Booker doesn't know what he is talking about.

"If there is one scientist more responsible than any other for the alarm over global warming it is Dr Hansen, who set the whole scare in train back in 1988 with his testimony to a US Senate committee chaired by Al Gore."
Here Mr Booker seems to allude to a widespread fairy tale in the sceptics camp. Alledgedly Dr Hansen had scared the public with Scenario A, which predicted an especially high forcing. But in reality Hansen expressly stated that he believed Scenario B to be "the most plausible".

"Yet last week's latest episode is far from the first time Dr Hansen's methodology has been called in question. In 2007 he was forced by Mr Watts and Mr McIntyre to revise his published figures for US surface temperatures, to show that the hottest decade of the 20th century was not the 1990s, as he had claimed, but the 1930s."
This is flat out wrong. The prior analysis had already 1934 as the warmest year, with 1998 at a close second. The flaws that Steven McIntyre pointed out concerned only post-2000 data, which obviously means they didn't have any effect on the 1990s analysis.

"Dr Pachauri, a former railway engineer with no qualifications in climate science, may believe what Dr Hansen tells him."
I understand that for a Climate Sceptic it must be very disappointing to learn that a former oil industry executive, of all people, joins the reality based camp. In fact, many hundred scientists are active in the IPCC. There have been about 180 contributors to the fourth assessment report of Working Group I, but Dr Hansen is not even on the list of authors. Apparently the author is trying to draw nonexistent links between persons to support his false claims.

I don't know about others, but I prefer opinion pieces that are based on facts, not on blatant misrepresentations

[kim]

cf, that's ambiguous writing. Only one month was carried over, September to October.
==============================

[Rick Ballard]

Antimedia,

Isn't it more precise to say that "the slight warming trend which began at the end of the last "ice age scare" in '75-'78 ended around '99-'00". Although the warming never exceed that which occurred in the '30's, the hysteria generated by a few pseudo-scientific frauds in the climate science community has endured until today"?

[kim]

truthyness, those are pitiful talking points. We expect from Hansen credible figures if trillion dollar policy decisions are to be made upon them. There is no excuse for this kind of codswallop from NASA, not that you won't try to excuse it. Whattsamattawidya?
====================================

[kim]

And you are flat out wrong about the Y2K stuff McIntyre found out about the domestic temperature data last year. It did put the 30's higher than the 90's. They had not been that way before. I don't think you've checked this out yourself; you are reading from a list of talking points that is wrong.
========================================

[SteveMG]

Is Truthynesslover Semanticleo?

Same pattern/style of posting. That is, copy and paste gobs of print, add a snarky meaningless comment at the end and then strut around pretending to have posited an argument.

[kim]

Somebody, whoever writes your erroneous talking points, believes that because it was a Y2K error that only data post 2000 was effected. Wrong, wrong, wrong. One of Hansen's tricks is retroactive adjustment of past temperature readings. That's why the 30's and the 90's are effected. No one knows the rationale or the process of these retroactive adjustments, but in the main they have lowered historical temperatures to make present one seem hotter.

After Steve McIntyre raised a fuss last year the code used by NASA GISTemps was made publicly downloadable, but it is so arcane and archaic that no one, not even the wizards at climateaudit.org, have been able to make it run. Anthony Watts has speculated half jokingly that Hansen has lost control of the computer formula and doesn't himself understand how it works anymore. That provoked for me the wonderful image of NASA just filling in the blanks and attempting to approximate the satellite readings for competing temperature series. This latest episode gave no assurance that that is not just exactly what is happening.
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[PeterUK]

"In fact, many hundred scientists are active in the IPCC. There have been about 180 contributors to the fourth assessment report of Working Group I"

The IPCC is governmental group,not a scientific one.

and troothfairy,get yourself a better husband.Sheesh,or tell him to call Fat Al,he's made a wad from AGW.

[Antimedia]

truthynesslover, please try to keep up. The globe is no longer warming. It is now cooling. You "husband" (if indeed you didn't just make that up for effect) probably makes plenty of money for doing little work. (I know. I work at a university.)

If you were honest, you'd admit that it's not the scientists who are making money on global warming, it's the high priests of the movement, like Al Gore, just as it is with every religion.

BTW, the ice caps are no longer receding. Is your "husband" behind on his research?

[kim]

I don't think so, Steve; truthyness is missing Leo's secret sauce, though their information is sourced similarly. Leo was a pro; this one is a wanker.
================================

[PeterUK]

SteveMG.

"Is Truthynesslover Semanticleo?"

I've thought that for a while. Had a son in the Marines when it was expedient,now a husband who is a scientist.I hope there is a proctologist in the family to get her head out.

[clarice]

cathyf--I think that's right..the Sept (not the August)figure was carried over as the Oct figure , too, as I read the article.

[Antimedia]

I understand that for a Climate Sceptic it must be very disappointing to learn that a former oil industry executive, of all people, joins the reality based camp. In fact, many hundred scientists are active in the IPCC.

We "skeptics" prefer science to bullshit. We expect that actual experts in a field would do their research with integrity and not lie for some ulterior motive.

When a so-called scientist says, "Oh, gee, some of the raw data I based my alarmism on was wrong" that is a red flag larger than the one the communists carry.

You should know that, being married to a research scientist and all, but apparently he/she never brings his/her work home?

[Antimedia]

Rick Ballard

Isn't it more precise to say that "the slight warming trend which began at the end of the last "ice age scare" in '75-'78 ended around '99-'00".

Well, sure, but I was engaging in sardonic criticism.

Perhaps my penchant for ridiculing buffoons isn't as well honed as your desire for precision.

[kim]

Yes, clarice, the bright boys Chris and John S among others, who were comparing numbers didn't find August numbers in the mix for October. Other episodes, less egregious, of numbers simply being carried over have been found in the past. NASA is lethally uncritical, and criminally negligent with these numbers which have massive policy impact.

Hansen is a sick boy, too. I believe he started out with good intentions, to save the world, but he's simply gone mad in the last few years as the temperatures have not done what he expected them to do.

The last decade of flat then falling temperatures was already putting a dent in the urge to encumber carbon and the financial catastrophe bearing down on us will put the kibosh on it. Europe is having second thoughts, New Zealand has just elected a skeptical regime, and China, India, and Russia have no intention of limiting CO2. Australia and the UK still are true believers in the CO2=AGW paradigm, but both countries have large and increasingly restive skeptical populations. The US is trailing along behind, at least partly because our insane media still believes all that carp, but there isn't going to be much political will to actually do anything about it. Obama is up to his armpits in alligators.

Bernie Peiser has an interesting recent article about the changing worldwide look at policy. Last June, at Right Side News, Vinod K. Dar had an epic article about the economic and political geography of energy.
=================================

[clarice]

Just a sherbet break--I heart Italy:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081116/ap_on_re_eu/eu_italy_bloodied_south

[kim]

Italy, with a large industrial base, is chary about instituting the EU's carbon goals. Germany is getting hesitant. Poland gets most of its energy from domestic coal, and many of the Eastern European nations depend on Russian gas. France has a lot of nuclear energy, since it never had much coal. Now, what were you saying about Italy? I'll go try the link.
=============================================

[sylvia]

I'm not sure we have enough certainty to know that our methods for measuring "global temperature" hold any accuracy. I mean the world is a big place. Weather patterns and temperatures are micro. How many sensors would we need around the world for an accurate picture of the "average". Probably tens of thousands. How many do we have up, and who ensures their accuracy? Obviously we can see that there are problems in Russia, how about the rest of the world, such as in the third world, etc.

I would like to see some evidence of the accuracy of this statistical analysis. I bet most sensors are located next to big cities in the West, near the research universities, and as the population grows, the temperature near these cities will be ambiently effected and increased by the amount of heated buildings and cars and general activity of modern society near them.

[sylvia]

Speaking of Obama and the Middle East peach process, in looking up figures, I saw that Obama got 78% of the Jewish vote. I know the Jewish vote tends to go Democratic, but why Obama got that amount of Jewish votes is beyond me. They obviously didn't pay attention to the people Obama was hanging around with. They have just voted up a lot of trouble for Israel.

[sylvia]

lol, that's peace prcocess not peach process. It must be snack time for me.

[kim]

Well, sylvia, UHI, or Urban Heat Islands, are part of the rationale for Hansen's adjustments. And you have a good point about the utility of an 'average' worldwide temperature. At any given time the globe has a range of temperature of around 200 degrees Fahrenheit.

Right now there are four temperature series all generally in agreement with each other, though three now show cooling and Hansen's GISSTemp hasn't yet admitted it. Two of the temp series are UAH and RSS, competing institutions which take the same raw satellite data from microwave sensing, and apply different algorithms to come up with global tropospheric temperatures at a variety of altitudes. The two others, HadCru and GISStemp, apply algorithms to a surface based network of thermometers. HadCru's algorithm is secret, and GISSTemps is publicly available, but so dense no outsider has been able to get the computer program to run.

As a result, the satellite series are coming to be recognized as the most reliable.
====================================

[SteveMG]

I bet most sensors are located next to big cities in the West, near the research universities, and as the population grows, the temperature near these cities will be ambiently effected and increased by the amount of heated buildings and cars and general activity of modern society near them.

Yes, both Watts and McIntyre have looked into this. I.e., the accuracy and reliability of the ground stations.

But remember that NASA et al. are also using both satellite and air-borne/balloon measurements that also show (or have shown - past tense) global temperature increases (yeah, that's not what is really happening but shorthand).

[kim]

Livin' in the country, gobblin' goober peaces.
=========================

[kim]

Aw, heck, 'gobblin goober peaches' would be better.
===============================

[sylvia]

"But remember that NASA et al. are also using both satellite and air-borne/balloon measurements"

Well I suppose that would be the best way to get away from the urban heat effect. However, how many satellites or balloons are up there for this? I'm thinking it cannot be too many.

So like Kim said they use some algorithms to try and smooth that over and get an average, but I have my doubts at how accurate that would be, given all the ranges of temps across the globe. Probably a pretty good guess for a vague idea, but I doubt good enough to detect the tiny, 1/2 degree global temp increases needs to predict global warming. Just call me skeptical.

[redstocking]

Off topic - but not really.
Schism? Tipping Point? As I listened to Glenn Beck make the following point: the left and right politically in this country have drifted apart to such an extent that we may be close to a separation for which there is no reconciliation or turning back.
Complete polarization. For me that has happened. I made the mistake of turning on Prairie Home Companion last night and there it was - 5 minutes of a Bush impersonation portraying him as a war-mongering dolt. Left –you won, but you continue to spew this garbage.
I will throw back into my co-workers and friends’ faces every miss-step of their new messiah, returning vitriol for vitriol for the last 8 years. He is not my messiah and I reject him, and most especially the rats like Ayers who now slither out into the light of day

[bio mom]

Today the Washington Post ombudsman deigns to discuss that yes, there is liberal media bias and this helped Obama. But now they will construct ways to defend against such things in the future by trying to increase the numbers of conservatives in mainstream journalism and doing better editing. I wanted to throw up. Hypocrites. They only write this now that they have been successful in their goal to return power to the Democrats and the liberals. Now they can be free to try to redeem themselves by admitting things and promising to do better. We are not so foolish to swallow this crap. May they descend into total bankrupcy.

[SteveMG]

I made the mistake of turning on Prairie Home Companion last night and there it was

Well, I was listening to Keillor and his show when Reagan died. Keillor announced the death and, yes, the audience applauded.

Sounded like a large segment, too.

Yes, they did.

Never again.

To be sure, there are conservative audiences who would applaud the announcement of the death of Ted Kennedy or Jane Fonda, et al.

One hopes a minority.

[centralcal]

bio mom: Two points. First, you are correct that their (the MSM) crap is a few years too late, and although they are admitting to their sins, they certainly have no real intention of correcting them - any "conservatives" they might bring on board wouldn't be recognized as such by most of us.

Second, now that they have elected their messiah to change destroy the world as we know it, they are freer to focus on their rapid descent into bankruptcy and irrelevancy and think they can boondoggle this side of the electorate to help save them. Not gonna happen. I, like you and many others, pray that their demise is hastened even more rapidly.

WE have other, better, more accurate and fuller sources of news, and no longer need these worthless twits.

[clarice]

Why fill your heart with hate and vitriol? Really. I am preparing for at least two years of mirth--and then I anticipate The One's true majority will be much diminished by more elected Reps and the conservative Dems opting to be re-elected rather than hoping to be invited to state dinners.

[kim]

The anger is because of the real harm that is going to be done. I expect to be amused by the antics of Obama, but saddened at the destruction. This is not a harmless game.
====================================

[centralcal]

Clarice, I agree with you about the hate our President part - I think Barry is going to fail massively, since he has never really DONE anything in his entire life, except win elections (by crook more than hook).

However, my personal contempt for 95% of our media sources will continue unabated.

[TCO]

Kim:

Svaalgard is a sharp guy and a patient one. Watts should feel good about that allocade. I think Watts is a bit of a dim bulb though. His blog is pleasant and well laid out. And the writing is better than CA (SM tends to meander, tends to leave the point of a story to the end and sometimes there isn't much of one). But I would put it below CA in terms of interest...for me at least. I can understand how certain hoi polloi might like it better though.

I don't care for RC too much.

Tamino's place is just where I go since I don't want to give Steve my trade. He is way smarter than Watts. Not completely fair on moderation. But you can have arguments on the facts (if you have a brain).

Rank Exploits is just kinda confusing and the lady has never written a paper. Seems bright. Does analysis. Think she gets a thing or two wrong and has a tad of the typical denialist unwillingness to face things...but she's better than most.

Atmoz is kinda funny on stuff that he doesn't know about. But I think he is a real scientist. Have seen him find and document mistakes by "his side".

CA has a lot of good stuff, but it's too aggravating dealing with a tease who hasn't written a paper in 4 years and who I have seen (puts school ring on the table) exercise Clintonian sophistry.

[clarice]

Well, contempt is another kettle of fish altogether, isn't it?

[kim]

See, I knew you could do it. That's an eminently respectable and informative comment, with which I don't massively disagree. I might contend that the phenomenon of climateaudit.org has transcended, in some fashion, traditional academic publishing. Steve is breaking new scientific ground at a wonderful pace.
===================================

[centralcal]

No, contempt is not another kettle of fish, I realize that.

However, that is how I feel about most of our media and I feel they have gone the extra mile to earn it.

Obama - time will tell if he earns it or not.

[MayBee]

Why fill your heart with hate and vitriol? Really. I am preparing for at least two years of mirth--and then I anticipate The One's true majority will be much diminished by more elected Reps and the conservative Dems opting to be re-elected rather than hoping to be invited to state dinners.

Yes!
One day I decided it was all rather exciting if I treat the incoming Obama administration as if it were a book. What will happen? What are the plot twists? I can't wait to see what will be revealed next.
It's much easier if you just think of it that way instead of actual life.

[Antimedia]

The things that have been written so far about the upcoming administration leave one scratching the head. The only sensible thing to do is wait until they're in office and see what they actually do.

Since I don't believe a word the lying media writes, I prefer to wait for results before I decide how badly the new administration will fail, if they fail at all.

[Jane]

Note how everyone is begging that President O be given a chance. And if you say you will give him the same chance the dems gave President Bush the response is always: "we gave Bush a chance".

So what are they worrying about?

[Thomas Collins]

How was or is the cruise, Jane? Drop any shrimp sauce on the outfits of any Palin haters? :-))

Just kidding! I know you are too classy to drop shrimp sauce on anyone.

[matt]

Jane;

The fact is, Bush did have a chance after 9/11. He squandered it, and then the Dems went back to what they always do. I keep on saying the biggest problem of this administration is not what they did, but how they went about it.

Bush may actually have created a new paradigm in the Middle East amd has done more in Africa that any predecessor. In addition, for most of his term, the country did phenomenally well. Remember, the dot com meltdown happened in 2000 and we recovered well.

However, his lack of a clear and positive vision, and his miscommunication exacerbated the problem, along with some of the scummiest dems of the past 50 years. The idiots in the Republican congresses didn't help either with their spending and general boorishness. The pendulum has turned, but this too will change.

[PeterUK]

"The fact is, Bush did have a chance after 9/11. He squandered it, and then the Dems went back to what they always do."

Yes,for the short time it took the left to crawl out from under the bed and change their underwear they were onside.As soon as it was seen that Bush was getting credit the left joined the jihad.

[Jane]

Thomas,

The Cruise was SPECTACULAR! Random notes are in the previous thread. We are all waiting for JMH to wake up so she can post the pix.

The next cruise is in July in the Mediterranean. People really should start saving their pennies because it is definitely worth it - and I hate cruises. It was the company, the speakers,the get togethers and all the new friends that made it so worthwhile.

[Jane]

Matt,

I'm not referring to post 9-11, but rather to post recount. Bush did a lot of stuff to reach across the aisle and was slapped across the face at every turn.

[TCO]

Kim: Steve's blog posts are a miserable substitute for publishing.

1. He does not stand behind them. They are "notebook writings".

2. They are not permanent. They could disappear like Chefen's blog did.

3. They are fluid in form subject to change, in some cases not even announced (correcting errors, rewriting, etc.)

4. They are not abstracted by science services or held by libraries.

5. They often have mistakes on graph axes, in text etc. They are also poorly written (mystery story style, meandering, etc.) They are not well proofread (an editor forces publication peices to a higher standard).

6. They are full of inflammatory distracting comments to the science (Hansen invading Russia and such).

7. His analyses often don't pursue things to the end or to overall impact. He will cite a fault and make fun of it, but NOT calculate the impact. The heart of a scientist of a mathematician of an analyst owuld be to show that number. The heart of a petty publicist goes a different direction.

8. He does not use references, so it's confusing what papers he's referring to (even his own).

9. He often gets distracted and assumes he has performed an explication that he did not...so his presentation to the readers is confused.

-------------------------

These are all things that the discipline of writing papers would help. BTW, I have seen McI's drafts of papers and meeting posters and they were miserable. He really needs the discipline of an external standard for quality to drive better written reports. I'm amazed when he talks about his business experience (at tiny, dodgy penny stock games)...because my experince is that business communication forces clarity and brevity and having a point right away...and McI doesn't.

[Extraneus]

Note how everyone is begging that President O be given a chance. And if you say you will give him the same chance the dems gave President Bush the response is always: "we gave Bush a chance".

So what are they worrying about?

Ha. Welcome back, Jane. Love those cruise reports.

[Sue]

The thing is, no one knows for sure how Bush would have handled his presidency without 9/11 happening. He changed after that. If people don't recognize that, they are willfully blind. He took 9/11 hard and everything since that day has been to prevent it from happening again. His domestic agendas were what he ran on. He spent a lot of political capital keeping a coalition together in Iraq. If he had used his veto pen when republicans were spending all of our money, they would have deserted him on Iraq sooner than they did. Anyway, history will tell whether Bush should be treated as a moron or an honorable man doing everything within his power to do the impossible. Prevent another attack.

[kim]

Yah, TCO, but he is pushing the science forward, and so is lucia. Pielke Pere at climatesci.org and Roy Spencer are also pushing the science forward, in more traditional ways.
=====================================

[Pofarmer]

"Bush did have a chance after 9/11. He squandered it"

How do you figure? Bush and Tommy Franks ran one of the most noteworthy military campaigns of all time. They dislodged the Taliban with a ragtag band of Northern Alliance and 10,000 U.S. ground forces with Air Support. So they didn't get Bin Laden. That was always going to be a tall order.

Before Iraqi Freedom he went to the UN what? 3 Times? He asked Congress to pass the AUMF, which they did, overwhelmingly and enthusiatically. Weapons inspectors were sent in which were rebuffed. Then the invasion took place. And, the really telling thing is this. How did he fund these ventures? In the most transparent and non-political way possible. He didn't hide it in military spending, he made it where a supplemental would have to be passed each year. This has dual benefits, it forces debate on the issue, and when the action is over the funds aren't still stuck in the permanent miltary budget.

Hell, he sunsetted his tax cuts. When education reform was brought to the fore he let TED KENNEDY write the damn legislation? How in the FUCK has Bush squandered anything? The Dims changed position for personal and political gain to damage a sitting president, and I despise them for it. Thanks for reminding me. Don't get caught up in this BULLSHIT about how BUSH sqaundered one GOD DAMNED THING.

[Thomas Collins]

Great cruise reports, Jane. I was especially interested to see the split of views on Palin. I try to see the point of view of folks with whom I disagree and to avoid attributing differences of opinion to snobbery. But I really have trouble avoiding the conclusion that many of Palin's detractors, including conservatives who should know better, downgrade her because she didn't come up through the pseudo-elite educational/internship system. From what I have read of her record as Alaska governor, she seems to me to be a fine executive and negotiator, and has sharp elbows that she doesn't hesitate to use (sharp elbows being a necessary condition to success in politics). In any event, from your cruise reports it sounds as if there will be a lot more Palin discussion among folks of all ideological stripes over the next four years. By the way, was there any discussion on whether Obama may be in the process of being schooled by Medvedev and Putin on missile defense? Or did folks think his hedging was reasonable while he reviews the situation? PrezElectO's conciliatory internationalism is the thing I worry most about.
.

[clarice]

I really just can't wait for the pics of all the MOM gals hugging SM. Really. I. Just. Cannot. Wait.

[clarice]

**JOM gals**(sheesh, she said slapping her forehead with the flat of her hand.)

[Extraneus]

Good post, Po.

He asked Congress to pass the AUMF, which they did, overwhelmingly and enthusiatically.

And let's not forget, the Democrats were begging for that vote. Bush was playing hard to get.

[TCO]

kim, he does something usefull every now and then. I just don't want you to get confused and think it is more than what it is, from reading all the "own dojo" swordfighting.