By Natural Causes

Where is Mother Nature most likely to strike you down, and how?  Check out the "death map":

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Heat is more likely to kill an American than an earthquake, and thunderstorms kill more than hurricanes do, according to a "death map" published on Tuesday.

Researchers who compiled the county-by-county look at what natural disasters kill Americans said they hope their study will help emergency preparedness officials plan better.

Heat and drought caused 19.6 percent of total deaths from natural hazards, with summer thunderstorms causing 18.8 percent and winter weather causing 18.1 percent, the team at the University of South Carolina found.

Earthquakes, wildfires and hurricanes combined were responsible for fewer than 5 percent of all hazard deaths.

                                                                          

Boring.  Heat, severe weather and and cold the big killers?  Where are the tidal waves and asteroid strikes?

So where are the danger zones?

The most dangerous places to live are much of the South, because of the heat risk, the hurricane coasts and the Great Plains states with their severe weather, Cutter said.

The south central United States is also a dangerous area, with floods and tornadoes.

California is relatively safe, they found.

                                                 

Here is the study as a 31 page .pdf.  Figure 1 on page 27 has causes of death.  Page 29 gives us a whole new look at the Red State/Blue State divide - here, Blue is for lower-mortality areas, such as urban centers, and Red is for danger zones, such as the Rocky Mountains.

Comments

[Soylent Red]

Red is for danger zones, such as the Rocky Mountains.

And yet us bitter clingers tend to live longer, according to the actuaries.

[PaulV]

In the US death rates are highest in January, March and Febuary, respectively. Feb would ben highes except it only has 28 days. Obviously cold is more dangerous than heat.

[PDinDetroit]

Some useful additions to another useless study:

1. Within Urban Areas, Accidental Death is more likely to occur due to Terrible Drivers behind the wheel of an SUV, Weapon Wielding Criminals who are just misunderstood, and Food Poisoning from Unlikely Sources - AKA Trans-fats, Sugars, and the like.

2. Florida is the worst off, being in the South and having so much coastline. Not to worry though - Global Warming will take care of that problem, but put Georgia in the new danger zone with the additional Southern Coastline.

3. California was just fine until it fell off into the Pacific Ocean due to the 11.1 Quake that hit 5 days after the study release. East Oregon is now considered safe, or at least what is left of it after California dropped off into depths and took 2/3 of Oregon with it.

[PeterUK]

Oh very cheerful.How about this instead? Seems to cover most of it.

"Deck the halls with boughs of holly,
Fa la la la la, la la la la.
Tis the season to be jolly,
Fa la la la la, la la la la.

Don we now our gay apparel,
Fa la la, la la la, la la la.
Troll the ancient Yule tide carol,
Fa la la la la, la la la la.

See the blazing Yule before us,
Fa la la la la, la la la la.
Strike the harp and join the chorus.
Fa la la la la, la la la la.

Follow me in merry measure,
Fa la la la la, la la la la.
While I tell of Yule tide treasure,
Fa la la la la, la la la la.

Fast away the old year passes,
Fa la la la la, la la la la.
Hail the new, ye lads and lasses,
Fa la la la la, la la la la.

Sing we joyous, all together,
Fa la la la la, la la la la.
Heedless of the wind and weather,
Fa la la la la, la la la la.

[bad]

You have a lovely voice, Peter. I'm wrapping presents and the music adds to the atmosphere.

BTW, does anyone else have an obsession to make a bow for every single package?

[Jane]

I wrap first and do bows later bad. And then it all depends on how bored I get with it.

[bad]

That's sane and reasonable Jane. I'll strive for that approach.

[clarice]

I recall reading that before WWII began, a sharp man who figured it was coming sold everything in the US and moved to an outpost he figured was safe..Guadalcanel.

[PeterUK]

bad,
Thank you,but I have to confess,I was miming.

[Fithian]

"The most dangerous places to live are much of the South, because of the heat risk"

Huh? Now I've only checked out the graphics, but it looks like heat is a lot more dangerous in the Mid-Atlantic region than anywhere in the South. In fact, heat doesn't even make the Southeastern pie chart, and here in NC it looks like I have a 50/50 chance of being struck by Other. It's my firm conviction, however, that heat doesn't kill people anyway. It's the stupidity, stupid!

[bad]

...I was miming.

How embarrassing. Hit's not the only one with a voice in his head.

[PeterUK]

"How embarrassing. Hit's not the only one with a voice in his head."

Some have a voice ad others have the Mormon Tabernacle Choir.

[Whitehall]

The metric is misleading and useless. They counted simple cause of death. What is useful is loss of years of productive life.

Heat and cold kill 80 year olds who are close to dying anyway and have very few years left anyway, few of them productive.

Kill a 21 year old recent engineering graduate with his or her whole career ahead during a Silicon Valley earthquake and you have a much bigger consequence from a social cost viewpoint.

In other words, this study tells us little useful.
In other words

[Captain Hate]

Thanks for listing all the lyrics, PUK; I'm always too lazy too look 'em up myself.

Speaking of wrapping presents, I sent the Hatettes' gifts off today and was more depressed than usual by the inefficiency and lethargy of the post office, since that will probably be our entire economy in a nutshell for the next four years.

[Captain Hate]

**too lazy to**

[Neo]

I'm not sure where this story belongs, but something about it makes me think there is an Al-Gore-wannabee out there with eyes glowing

[bad]

...others have the Mormon Tabernacle Choir.

Don't tell the gay California contingent, my neighbors wouldn't like the protests.

[PeterUK]

Thanks Whitehall,that was wonderfully,er, utilitarian.

[PeterUK]

bad,
But it must be bracing to get the Hallelujah Chorus every time you open the freezer door.

[Fithian]

"Heat and cold kill 80 year olds who are close to dying anyway and have very few years left anyway, few of them productive"

I hear ya! And what about them babies and toddlers too? None of 'em contribute one damn thing and, shoot, almost anything can kill 'em. Lucky for us we don't have much money in the useless little tykes and they're easy to replace, so it's no great loss. They sure bum out the stats, though, don't they?

[Barney Frank]

"Heat and cold kill 80 year olds who are close to dying anyway and have very few years left anyway, few of them productive"

Of course the French figured this out way before us regarding the elderly; since they're close to croaking anyway just go to the beach while they slowly fricasee upstairs in the attic.

[bad]

Speaking of stats and who dies where from what, where is one most likely to be aborted?

[Jim]

When the "big one" comes in California I wager those stats will change.

[Whitehall]

Geez guys! Get all huffy would you!

All I'm saying is that old people die from heat and cold because that is classically a predominant way for old folks to go. You gotta die from something and the elderly are especially prone to hypothermia and hyperthermia.

"Lost years" to correct for premature deaths would be more useful and would make a big change in the results.

Infant and child mortality is not so much related to weather as for the elders.

Better to put this study in its place (a circular file) than to let it stand and be MISused by the Al Gore Brigade.

[PeterUK]

"Geez guys! Get all huffy would you!"

As one nears the time when the tribe moves on leaving you in the snow,these things become a little sensitive.

[bad]

Who's been huffing again? Don't make me find out on my own....

[matt]

uh oh...we're all gonna die?

Gee whiz.....

[matt]

can we put Madoff and Al Gore and Barney Frank and Blagojevich out in the snow while we're at it?

[PeterUK]

"can we put Madoff and Al Gore and Barney Frank and Blagojevich out in the snow while we're at it?"

I don't know about the other two,but Al gore has more blubber than a polar bear.

[jimmyk]

Pd and Jim have it right--this study suffers from what statisticians would call "small sample bias" regarding rare events. Still, I believe quake experts say Memphis and thereabouts may be most vulnerable to a "big one."

You're much more likely to die in a (non-storm-related) car accident than from mother nature. As the old joke goes, "I hope to die in my sleep, like grandpa, not screaming in fear like the passengers in his car."

[pagar]

"Kill a 21 year old recent engineering graduate with his or her whole career ahead during a Silicon Valley earthquake and you have a much bigger consequence from a social cost viewpoint."

I don't have the Silicon Valley earthquake death toll, but I did find this:

"The Bottom Line...

An Anthrax Epidemic?

Killed in car accidents 42,116*
Killed by the common flu 20,000*
Killed by murders 15,517*
Killed in airline crashes
(of 477m passenger trips) 120 (1)
Killed by lightning strikes 90*
Killed by Anthrax 5

(1) Annual average over 19 year period.
*Average annual totals in United States."

LUN

If one reduced the car accident death toll by 1% it would have a much greater impact on lives here, then reducing lightning strikes by 1 %. Is anyone worrying about auto deaths? The first step IMO, would be to have the national auto death toll for yesterday spread all over the news every day, like they do US Iraq war deaths. It would cost absolutely nothing to accomplish in my estimation. Without exception, to the best of my knowledge, every law enforcement agency that deals with a death on a street or highway reports it on up the line. So it would cost nothing to add more addresses on the list. Americans could do a lot more to reduce auto deaths here, than Military deaths in Iraq. I believe the idea to report these deaths daily could be/should be implemented immediately.

[Fithian]

"Geez guys! Get all huffy would you!"

There are of all kinds of things a breakdown by age could tell us. I guess it was the idea that it really doesn't matter how many old folks kick off in the summer, since they're useless and prone to dying anyway (Who knew?) that did it for me. It's not like heat stroke suddenly turns into a natural cause of death when you join the AARP.

The national database the authors were using doesn't include age at time of death, so calling their results misleading is a little, well, misleading. Nor are the stats entirely useless even if GDP is the only bottom line you're willing to recognize. If, however, productivity is your exclusive measure of worth, you're going to have to figure out how to calculate, and justify, your values at both the beginning of the spectrum and the end.

The elderly, unlike the wee bairns, of course, are not uniformly unproductive, so you're going to need some pretty fancy algorithms to get at the kind of equation you're looking for. I personally know a couple of infirm, susceptible grannies who babysit for their working daughters. Who's the unproductive one in that equation? Then there are the folks in (air conditioned!) nursing homes who are supporting all those doctors and nurses and attendants. If they're still living at home, they're probably spending money on something, so, maybe it will help if you just think of them as employers.

But here's my question for you. Assuming you get those stats on lost productivity, what are you planning to do with them?

[PeterUK]

JM Hanes,

The argument is a moral one,it concerns the social contract that human being are born into.We agree to contribute and pay taxes with the unspoken acknowledgement that we will be looked after.To that end we make provision,pay into pension funds and pay off mortgages and endeavour to die debt free.

[Thomas Collins]

Tradeoffs are an inherent aspect of life on this level of creation. The only place where there are no tradeoffs is in the Eternal Kingdom of God. Stats are fine for analyzing tradeoffs. But the basic issues of what goods ("goods" in the sense of what we think are fine ends, which may or may not involve material goods) are important to us is not informed by pattern variables or standard deviations or any other stat tool. If our primary good is preserving those in the eighth or later decades, and we argue for policies to thar affect, we may put perfume on our arguments with stats (showing some sort of correlation between taking care of the elderly and other goods), but the basis of our good is beyond stats. That is the wonder of politics. We argue about competing goods with the patina of science, but the drives leading us to assert various goods are beyond what we consider to be science.

[Thomas Collins]

Whoops! That "a" in "affect" should have been an "e."

[sbw]

With our elected dynasties caught on tape cursing, this has to fit into a Christmas song:

10 lords a bleeping

[bad]

LOL sbw

[richard mcenroe]

I had to wade through 12" of rain runoff to get to my wifi connection here in LA, today.

Gimme da frikkin heat.

[clarice]

I guess it was the idea that it really doesn't matter how many old folks kick off in the summer, since they're useless and prone to dying anyway (Who knew?)<.b>
I got a bit frosted myself when I read that, having just crossed over to 67.

Any minute know ,JMH, I guess we'll be led out to the ice floe.

[clarice]

**any minute now**

And I apologize for the hanging bold.

[Fithian]

I can get out to the ice floe without any help, thanks. Because I'm hanging bold.

[bad]

Let's make a list of questions to ask Ted Kennedy. I volunteer to do the asking cause ol Ted and I'll probably be in the same managed care lines together. We'll have plenty of time to chat.

[clarice]

Sure you will bad. Just like JMH will go quietly to the old people's ice floe to perish before consuming another morsel of the youngun's foodstuffs.

[Fithian]

They'll have to pry it out of my cold dead hands.

[clarice]

Niters, this fresh Gulf air makes me sleepy.

[bad]

I've contemplated stealing Ted's meds but he'll probably insist I take them so that won't be necessary.

Should I start with Chappaquiddick?

[Thomas Collins]

Something tells me that anyone attempting to place clarice or JMH on an ice floe is going to end up in a freezer!

[bad]

Call Blago for references.

[bad]

That should have been referrals.

[Dan D]

While the comment on age is badly worded, I will agree that lack of information on the age of the victims make this study is fairly useless for identifying 'danger zones'.

Suppose, for a vastly simplified example, the people in the Northeast are mostly dying around age 50 of whatever causes. Those who survive move down to Florida where everyone eventually dies of heatstroke at age 105. This would show Florida as a danger area due to a massive amount of heat-related deaths. Still, I'd rather die of the heat in Florida at age 105 than of something else in the Northeast at age 50.

Honestly, I expected Florida and Arizona to be heat-death danger zones, simply due to the large retirement communities in both states.

The elderly, as a group, are much more susceptible to heat and cold related deaths than those who are younger. (For that manner, they are at greater risk to all hazards due to their increasing loss of mobility.) Any study that doesn't account for the age of the victims when comparing 'danger zones' is worthless.

[Fithian]

Dan D:

"Honestly, I expected Florida and Arizona to be heat-death danger zones, simply due to the large retirement communities in both states."

And your response is to question the value of the data rather than your own assumptions?

It seems to me that there's a very useful piece of information staring you in the face. If heat related mortalities drop in the hottest parts of the country, it rather suggests that some externality, like, say, air conditioning or acclimatization is actually more salient than age, does it not? I'm certainly open to correction, but it occurs to me that if there is, indeed, an air conditioning factor, the heightened sensitivity of the elderly is what actually throws the key anomaly into high relief.

While there are no stats on age at death in the national database, if you check out the section on data mapping, they have applied what is apparently a accepted formula for establishing age adjusted equivalence in the population groups being compared. That, in and of itself, is a substantial accomplishment! There's an enormous amount of data and a lot of practical conclusions to be drawn from this report if folks don't start out donning blinders

[PeterUK]

"Any minute know ,JMH, I guess we'll be led out to the ice floe."

That is the beauty of Global Warming,no ice floes. It is Al Gore who is trying to kill us off.

[Bill in AZ]

Honestly, I expected Florida and Arizona to be heat-death danger zones, simply due to the large retirement communities in both states.

But it's a dry heat here in AZ...

The biggest red section on the map covers central and northern AZ up into Utah, but that's not the hot part of the state. It probably reflects more that it is a relatively unpopulated area that has a large draw for outdoor recreation. Was out much of Tuesday night snowshoeing through feet of (globally warm) snow searching for a couple of these overdue outdoor recreationists who missed the storm warnings. They're OK, but they won't get their car out until spring.

[sbwaters]

Clarice: I apologize for the hanging bold.

Old people are prone to such things.

... says he who remains gloriously young at 61.

[kim]

What's the chance of the youtube of Peter miming while looking for ice cream?
======================================

[clarice]

HMPH

[kim]

High Miles Per Hour?
=============

[Charlie (Colorado)]

Speaking of stats and who dies where from what, where is one most likely to be aborted?

Medical facility.

[clarice]

No, Kim, a variant of PHEH

[bad]

Medical facility.

Except when Republicans are in power. Then it's back alleys.

[Whitehall]

Hanes,

I missed the age correction factor in the report when I scanned it.

The conclusion that earthquakes are a major risk factor is correct. Big earthquakes are rare events but when they happen in the US, millions feel them but only scores die.

The point about air conditioning affecting the results is a good one. Make electricity more expensive and/or less reliable and one would see more deaths due to heat. Soon, the government will control your thermostat through the "Smart Meter" or "Smart Grid" initiative.

[Larry Patty]

The danger zone is anywhere you're standing when the truck hits you or the rock falls on your head!

[sophy]

Please do not hesitate to have wakfu kamas . It is funny.