Japanese Scientists Cool To Kyoto

Andrew Orlowski of The Register, a UK paper, has sent ripples through the blogosphere with his report that the Japan Society of Energy and Resources is critical of the IPCC "consensus" on anthropogenic global warming:

Exclusive Japanese scientists have made a dramatic break with the UN and Western-backed hypothesis of climate change in a new report from its Energy Commission.

Three of the five researchers disagree with the UN's IPCC view that recent warming is primarily the consequence of man-made industrial emissions of greenhouse gases. Remarkably, the subtle and nuanced language typical in such reports has been set aside.

One of the five contributors compares computer climate modelling to ancient astrology. Others castigate the paucity of the US ground temperature data set used to support the hypothesis, and declare that the unambiguous warming trend from the mid-part of the 20th Century has ceased.

And from the conclusions:

4. Conclusion: Anthropogenic global warming theory still hypothetical

To summarize the discussion so far, compared to accurately predicting solar eclipses by celestial mechanics theoretical models, climate models are still in the phase of reliance on trial and error experiential models. There are still no successful precedents. The significance of this is that climate change theory is still dominated by anthropogenic greenhouse gas causation; the IPCC 4th Evaluation Report's conclusion that from now on atmospheric temperatures are likely to continuously, monotonously increase, should be perceived as an unprovable hypothesis; it will be necessary investigate further and to evaluate future predictions as subject to natural variability. ®

Well, well - yet another crack in the scientific consensus.

So, who are these Japanese scientists and how credible is this?  Japan is having trouble achieving Kyoto compliance, so it is *possible* that political motivations are at work here (or was George Bush the only politician ever to politicize science?)  That suggestion is not meant to impugn the integrity of the scientists presenting this report; instead, let's note the possibility that the group was stacked with AGW skeptics at the outset.

That said, The Register gives background on the Japanese scientists:

Shunichi Akasofu, head of the International Arctic Research Center in Alaska, has expressed criticism of the theory before [link].

Dr. Akasofu has a bio that would impress even Al Gore and his role as Founding Director of the International Arctic Research Center seems to be on point:

The International Arctic Research Center [IARC] serves as a focal point of integrating/synthesizing arctic research efforts in terms of climate change and communicates the results to the global climate research community. Our core research group interacts with a larger number of scientists from many parts of the world, enabling climate change research to truly be an international effort.

The JSER group was led by Kanya Kusana:

Kanya Kusano is Program Director and Group Leader for the Earth Simulator at the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science & Technology (JAMSTEC).

Dr. Kusano has a physics/astrophysics background with expertise in solar flares.  The Earth Simulator Center is quite an ambitious project with the modeling of climate change as one of its goals.

Presumably their objections will be noted and kicked around the scientific community; the US press has utterly overlooked this. 

As to the likely impact within the White House, Obama's science adviser is firmly among the true believers on global warming, so we can count on this being poo-poohed in that quarter.

[END OF THREAD]

Comments

[kim]

Off the top of my head, I can't think of any nation that met Kyoto targets. It was absurd to begin with, as our Senate clearly and unanimously agreed, and any stricter replacement will also similarly fail.

Besides, it's all completely unnecessary. The globe is cooling and CO2 has an undetermined role in climate, but it is obvious that that role has been desperately exaggerated.

This issue is going to be big politically. Encumbering carbon cripples economic recovery. The administration faces a quandary. Let's hope they can accept reality, and deal with it.
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[Bill in AZ]

But CO2 does have a very important role in our existence.  Considering we are in a period of relative "CO2 Famine" (icecap - see Feb 25, 2009 article, there does not appear to be a direct link), all of this flailing and arm waving by Gorebots will look like, well, the witchdoctoring it is, a few years hence.  Wait, it looks like that right now to most sensible folks.

[happyfeet]

Clearly absurd. The idea that the relationship of human activity to Earth's climate can be described in a way that doesn't conform with socialist economic principles and policy prescriptions is laughable, and the suggestion that it's somehow incumbent upon Barack Obama to accept reality is offensive I think.

[someguy]

>>>The administration faces a quandary.

No they don't. Rahm "Let no crisis go to waste" Emmanuel is in charge of policy. The only question is how much government control can be exerted over the private sector in the next 8 years using the pretext of global warming - how much can they get away with before the lumpenproles and kulaks revolt in numbers sufficient to force change. It's a quandary only insofar as the question "do we want to control a lot of the economy or all of it?" presents a resource challenge to any regulatory regime, but other than that I don't see any real problems arising for the administration on this front. The media is in the bag, the government-money-seeking professoriate is in the bag, and those who will benefit from government largess are in the bag.

[Chris]

Let's hope they can accept reality, and deal with it.

Not on your life. Reality is not a river in Egypt. Al Gore cultists and cute puppies hardest hit.

[Jim]

Great post.

[Old Lurker]

But the new budget anticipates 2012 $79B in fed revenues from the cap & trade... so who cares what the facts are? Add that tax to the others.

[Ranger]

and the suggestion that it's somehow incumbent upon Barack Obama to accept reality is offensive I think.

Posted by: happyfeet | February 26, 2009 at 11:50 AM

I don't think you meant that comment to be as illuminating about the left's outlook or as funny as it.

[Syl]

Some of you seem to believe that pushback is useless. Don't give up.

The earth's climate is on our side and it will become more and more obvious. The hysteria from the warmers these last few weeks is obvious as well and they're crossing the line into even more absurdity. Point it out whenever you see it.

Don't give up!

[Boatbuilder]

I think that happyfeet did mean both, Ranger.

Welcome aboard, happy--hope you'll stick around.

[Korla Pundit]

Yes, but haven't you heard that the imminent ICE AGE is a CRISIS! We need to act NOW; no time for debate!!!

[steveaz]

This dissenting report ought to paint a big moustache on AGW's popular facade. Thing is, though, most voters who voice support for the AGW-hypothesis do so in order to reinforce their other patronage relationships, so mere rational debunking may not work.

If you're a supplicant to a state-agency, or to a state-mediated student loan program, or to a state's welfare-subsidies, then AGW provides that tertiary, complimentary issue that allows you to vote for your wardens' over-arching, statist agenda without requiring that you ever ponder your imprisonment.

This is not an accident. This "hook" has been carefully formulated to appeal to the urban indigent who desires the veil that flagrant "concern about the environment" offers to counterbalance the guilt she derives from depending on others for social and financial sustenance.

If by "saving the planet" a blood-sucking flea could effectively prevent his host-doggie (in this case, the American taxpayer) from scratching him off, he'd have a pretty good gig, huh? The reflex to scratch gets suppressed lest the host be called a "denialist," and the junkie can rest assured she'll get her regular 'fix' for free.

This is AGW's psycho-electoral function in a nut-shell. The Japanese report is welcome push in the right direction, but it'll take a lot more shoves like it to topple this behemoth.

[jdm]

Trust me. Happy knew exactly what he was writing.

[steveaz]

Yup! Happy's not a rogue reprobate with a keyboard and license to "type while drunk."

He's a deft spin-meister and he's 'gainst those filthy socialists, so, me, I likes him.

If a colorful, incite-ful comment could serve as a revolutionary's battle-banner, Happy can sew a mean flag, too. In this he could be the "Betsy Ross" of the new Constitutionalists rebellion underway.

Keep 'em coming, 'feets.

Martha Washington of

[Daddy]

Well the good news is that because of the worldwide economic slowdown, my company, and many other airline companies, are canceling flights and mothballing airplanes all around the globe, so we'll all burn less gas and make less CO2 and Gaia will be happy, happy, happy! Plus, because of the massive loss of revenue our CEO's will have less greedy shindigs, and it'll be easier for tons of us Airline Employees to make way less than $250,000, so obviously our personal income taxes won't go up. Therefore even though everything is going to hell in a handbasket, I'm happy to know I'm doing my part to help the New World Order. I believe this link applies.

[Daddy]

Oh, and the Aurora Borealis has been lousy at altitude the last couple years. Are we still blaming that on the Sun's current period of weak solar wind output, or has Nobelist Gore and his crackpot scientists figured out a way to blame that on we Capitalist Pigs yet?

[Fen]

You won't hear much from the Obama administration because, while Global Warming has always been about redistribution of wealth via limits on energy consumption and production, the US is now getting there from a different angle.

[Thomas Esmond Knox]

Get onto the details of the crashed satellite launch. Some reports say the first attempt to accurately measure atmospheric CO2 worldwide. Who knew?

[Alan]

Let's hope there will be another attempt at launching another satellite to accurately measure atmospheric CO2 worldwide.

[kim]

Yes, Alan, we need that bird to better understand the carbon cycle, however, those satellites take awhile to build. We may get one and we may not. By the time another could be launched we'll either have broken the paradigm that CO2=AGW or the earth's CO2 and its people will be enslaved by an unholy alliance of the greedy and autocratic. In either case, the need to understand carbon will be somewhat lessened.
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[kim]

someguy at 12:02 PM. You have a point. This issue may be a good bellweather as to the bona fides of this administration. Oh, why do I wonder?

Syl, nice to see you here, and I agree. The warmistas are swarming, and desperate. Some of them can see the full expression of the CO2=AGW paradigm politically just within reach, exactly as the globe is cooling and skeptical sentiment rising.

I remember telling Dano last year that he had a chance to become a famous fool; all he had to do was stop restraining himself as the paradigm collapses. And Naomi Oreskes, what a story. Tobacco tar causes cancer, but CO2 doesn't cause catastrophic climate change.
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[Cryos]

"Get onto the details of the crashed satellite launch. Some reports say the first attempt to accurately measure atmospheric CO2 worldwide. Who knew?

Posted by: Thomas Esmond Knox"

yeah I find the whole satellite thing hilarious. The left says we need to spend trillions of dollars to fight AGW but then they won't even try to replace a monitoring satellite? LOL