So Many Numbers

What are the odds of the US economy entering a depression?  Robert Barro, writing in the WSJ estimated a 20% probability.  David Brooks of the NY Times thought Barro was too optimistic and revised that estimate:

Robert Barro of Harvard estimates that there is a 30 percent chance of a depression.

Hey, maybe Brooks got Barro on the phone with a revision - there is no correction in the Times as yet.

The WSJ re-enters the bidding today.  In an article about the poor marks given by professional economists to Obama and Geithner we get this aside:

Economists also put nearly a one-in-six chance that the U.S. will fall into a depression, defined as a decline in per-person GDP or consumption by 10% or more.

Oh, let's have the whole forecast:

A worsening recession weighed on economists' minds, as they pushed off forecasts for a recovery yet again. On average, they expect the downturn to end in October. Last month, they said the bottom would arrive in August. They estimate that gross domestic product will continue to contract in the first half of this year, with slow growth returning in the third quarter. Meanwhile, the economists surveyed this month estimate that the economy will shed another 2.8 million jobs over the next 12 months as the unemployment rate climbs to 9.3% by December, up from the 8.1% rate recorded in February. Economists also put nearly a one-in-six chance that the U.S. will fall into a depression, defined as a decline in per-person GDP or consumption by 10% or more.

"We just keep moving the date [when the recession will end] out, hoping at some point in time we will be able to move the date back in," said Diane Swonk of Mesirow Financial.

The economists didn't just single out the U.S. for criticism, though, as 70% of participants said the response of governments around the world to the global recession has been inadequate. "The Europeans or Japanese don't seem to be doing near enough to kickstart their economies," said Nariman Behravesh of IHS Global Insight. "It could be we've done all the right things, but the rest of the world goes down the tubes."

Yike.

Comments

[bgates]

I put the probability of a depression at 38.7%, the probability that the 2011 Miss Teen USA is named "Amber" at 6%, and the odds I get this comment finished in time to be first at 3:1 in favor.

[bgates]

On a roll!

[bgates]

It reminds me of a friend who got a consultant job out of grad school, and had some project that involved polling people at the client company. There was some critical question where 6 people answered "not at all", 3 answered "not much", 7 answered "a little", 4 answered "a lot" (oh, stop it.) His boss thought it should be more quantitative. So he decided "not at all" = 1, "not much" = 2, etc, put this into PowerPoint
*
* *
* *
* * *
* * * *
* * * *
* * * *
-and was a big hit. People like numbers.

[Rick Ballard]

Depression? That could only occur with a dirty socialist in the White House and a Dem controlled .... Uh oh.

[bgates]

But TypePad doesn't like ASCII graphs. Stupid TypePad.

[Jim Ryan]

I've changed my estimate of the probability of the Phillies taking the series this year from 27.569% to 28.030%.

The guy who changed his estimate of depression from 20% to 30% is out of his frickin' gourd. It's around 32% and it was 34% last week. Guy's not even moving in the right direction.

[verner]

OK, Hoover raised taxes, and Roosevelt spent billions on government works projects that leeched precious capital from the private sector--thus extending the depression until the start of WW2

Let's start calling him Obamahoovelt--Cause the idiot is doing the exact two things that have historically proven NOT to work.

The Verner's will be opening their "Obama-ville" camp on their rocky 5 acres on the day the market hits 3000--which at this rate should be early fall.Family and friends welcome. If you work, you'll eat. Hobos provided with a cup of thin soup as supplies last.

[Fresh Air]

Obamavilles. Yes! Where do we pitch our tents? Everyone bring your stock certificates. We'll need something to burn up to keep warm...at least until the dollar collapses in a heap from hyperinflation.

[Rick Ballard]

"Hobos provided with a cup of thin soup as supplies last."

Verner - At Ace's hobos are supplies. Something to ponder if things get really tight.

For those scoring at home: BEA GDP Numbers please note that the NBER phantom recession beginning in '07 Q4 has not, as yet, actually begun according to the traditional definition of two consecutive quarters of falling GDP. '08 Q4 was the first quarter to actually slip.

This has some slight bearing as to the Depression silliness - do we measure from '07 Q3 GDP levels or '08 Q3 levels?

Wrt personal income - here's the appropriate BEA Table. Please note Line 33 Personal Saving. '08 Q4 GDP fell by $211.5 billion while personal savings increased by $203.4 billion. This is known as the "They elected a damned commie? Hide the money quick!!" effect. It will continue to have a negative impact upon consumption as long as the commie remains in office.

It's all part of the new O!conomy.

[hit and run]

Verner:
The Verner's will be opening their "Obama-ville" camp on their rocky 5 acres on the day the market hits 3000

The Hit Obamaville in Idaho opens in October, unless...well, unless I can't convince mrs hit and run that I've really, truly been looking for a job between now and then. No, really, I'm looking. No, really, don't look at me like that, I'm looking. Really. Hard.

Rick:
"They elected a damned commie? Hide the money quick!!"

And arm yourself.

[verner]

I know Rick, I lurk at the aceter on occasion!LOL

We'll need something to lure them in. Just kidding, we will die like civilized men!(end of extreme sarcasm for all the clueless nutroot trolls who can't take a joke.)

[mel]

Funny how the new media (I'm guessing here) can inform the public so fast of "What's coming is for your own good". Pretty big swing, I haven't looked at the personal savings rate change in a while. No time like the present. My link's pegged in the office, not here, so thank you, in advance, for saving me some time.

Rick- I think the NBER pegged it then because they expect all the revisions to catch up and place it there, after a good year or so of revising the data, unfortunately. On the other hand, they might have used a dart.

[Matt]

my Wall Street friends are a lot more concerned, and that goes back to before the election. The unsustainable spending has been going on for 60 years, and there are a lot of other factors that are could accelerate a meltdown. Eastern European defaults cause Western European defaults which affect global markets. More toxic debt; another Madoff or two. Continued muddled response by our government to the crisis, Chinese instability.

A colleague is moving the factory they just opened in China to Korea because the conditions for doing business there have been deteriorating so badly. The bloom is off that rose. China kept inflation in check with huge volumes of cheap goods. All of this is interrelated in ways even the rocket scientists in economics or Wall Street or probability theory don't quite understand. It's a situation where there are a lot of straws that can brake the camel's back out there.

[Barry Dauphin]

How are European governments gonna kickstart their economies when government spending accounted for too much of their GDPs before the recession? You can only spend so much of other people's money.

[mel]

Matt-

Pre-cisely.

Going to be interesting.

[RichatUF]

mel-

I think the NBER pegged it then because they expect all the revisions to catch up and place it there, after a good year or so of revising the data, unfortunately. On the other hand, they might have used a dart.

They used drops in employment and strangely consumpution (I forget which measure, but it declined one quarter, then rose back up to its previous peak, then declined again *during the recession*) and timed their announcement a week or so before the election. Romer, who was on the NBER at the time, was rewarded with a staff position in the White House.

It's all good though, because as Rick pointed out, the BEA in July 09, is redefining the national income and products accounts. Should be interesting to find out that, indeed, the Obama Administration has brought the unemployment rate down from the Bush era average of 75% to 6.5% (creating or saving 30 to 40 million jobs) and that everyone is now classified as rich.

[Rick Ballard]

Tigerhawk presents a real-life account of "credentialed competent meets credentialed morons".

Those folks deserve the 'No Shit, Sherlock' ribbon with Poison Oak Cluster.

[Charlie (Colorado)]

Hmmm. Predictions of starvation, "hoovervilles", Dow 3000, Dow 0.

Buy signal.

I wish I'd have taken my own advice with some WFC and JPM a couple days ago. Doesn't take a lot of 30 percent weeks to make a portfolio look pretty good.

[verner]

And Charlie, I wish I'd taken my own advice and turned my 401k into cash the minute it seemd obvious that the Alynskyite in chief was going to win the dem nomination...

[Sue]

verner,

Me too. ::sigh::

[Ranger]

Here are some more numbers:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abhCNOyyZPnc&refer=worldwide>Freddie to Tap $30.8 Billion in Aid as Losses Deepen

“These numbers are so mind-boggling,” said Paul Miller, an analyst at FBR Capital Markets in Arlington, Virginia. “You can’t even begin to analyze it.”

[bgates]

Those folks deserve the 'No Shit, Sherlock' ribbon

Bush-era complaint: It's quite unpleasant that he talks about such things, but he actually does them - it's really quite unpleasant.

Obama-era complaint: It was so uplifting to hear him talk about those things, but he actually does them - what a f***n catastrophe!

[Pofarmer]

And arm yourself.

Buy in bulk.

[clarice]

OT:VIPSter Ray McGovern is defending Freeman against the wicked Jewish Lobby thru some outfit called the Institute for Public Accuracy.

[Ken Stremsky]

I discuss dealing with the financial crisis and other topics on http://www.newgeography.com/users/kenstremsky

If you like the changes I recommend dealing with 401(k) plans, I hope you will tell others.

Many poor people and middle class people have 401(k) plans. Many businesses match employee contributions to 401(k) plans some.

People should be allowed to remove their contributions from 401(k) plans tax free and penalty free whenever they want.

People should be allowed to remove interest from their 401(k) plans tax free and penalty free whenever they want.

People should be allowed to remove capital gains and dividends from their 401(k) plans tax free and penalty free whenever they want.

These changes to 401(k) plans will help many people make mortgage payments, reduce their debts, buy things, save for their retirements, and improve consumer confidence. If consumer confidence improves, many businesses may fire fewer workers and may hire more workers.

[sbw]

... and defeat he purpose of a 401K as a retirement vehicle.

[matt]

that's it! Obama, Gither and the others have boggled minds! it explains everything now.....

[verner]

Figures McGovern would love him Clarice. Remember, Chas. Freeman was one of the stars in Greenwald's nutball anti-Bush anti-war movies.

I still haven't found that 17 ambassador's list by the way.

[Ranger]

Interesting map of forclosures by county from USA Today (indirectly via Instapundit):

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2009-03-05-foreclosure_N.htm>Most foreclosures pack into a few counties

What is interesting is that they compare the numbers to 2006. The same 35 counties that comprise 50% of forclosures today comprised 39% of forclosures in 2006. That is starting to look like a systemic failure to accurately asses risk in key housing markets. I wonder would could have caused that???

[clarice]

This group mentions our buddy (ex)Amb Pickering is also defending Freeman.

[mel]

Rich- Thanks.

Anybody wants the goods on wha was happening, from the Feds perspective, back in September. The minutes were released today, LUN. All 33 pages of 'em. AIG gets a featured role, for good reason.

[verner]

Ranger, I saw that map. Notice Memphis Shelby County is one of the 35.

Now if they'd only provide detailed demographics on the foreclosure deadbeats...

[verner]

Clarice if Peck isn't dead (did I read that?) bet he's there too.

Think Joe Wilson was there? LOL His path has crossed with Chas. as well.

[RichatUF]

verner-

Come on-that would be reverse redlining or something.

[clarice]

Per Yglesias:
"The authors are Thomas Pickering (ambassador to Jordan, then Nigeria, then El Salvador, then Israel, then the United Nations, then India, then Russia before serving as Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs) and Ronald E. Neumann (Ambassador to Algeria and Bahrain who George W. Bush made Ambassador to Afghanistan) and is also signed by Samuel W. Lewis (various ambassadorships and head of Policy Planning at State), Ronald Spiers, Nicholas A. Veliotes, Brandon Grove, William C. Harrop, Robert E. Hunter, Thomas D. Boyatt, Roscoe S. Suddarth, Harry G. Barnes, Jr, Avis Bohlen, Howard B. Schaffer, Edward M. Rowell, Robert V. Keeley, James R. Jones, and Patricia Lynch-Ewell.

I would say that the letter, along with the fact that Admiral Blair tapped Freeman in the first place, reflects the fact that a broadly realist orientation is pretty widespread among military, intelligence, and diplomatic professionals."

[narciso]

Those words, with the possible exception of institute (or institution) as in mental, are not even remotely related to reality. I went to see the Watchmen, the other day, and I found it only stranger than the real life events we see here today. This crew constitutes what Mark Steyn, has properly called the Camel Corps, the professional Arabist clique (Peck, Walker, Abington, Akin
; if he's still alive) Fowler, et al who repeat the KSA's talking points back to the bureacracy. In a just world, Freeman should
be appealing his sentence, and Libby would
be speaking forth, possibly as Secretary of Defense. No I know, this is nowhere close
to a just world.

[mel]

Back to work, night all.

[jimmyk]

Rick,
the NBER phantom recession beginning in '07 Q4 has not, as yet, actually begun according to the traditional definition of two consecutive quarters of falling GDP. '08 Q4 was the first quarter to actually slip.

I think you're looking at the dollar numbers, not adjusted for inflation. There was a decline in 2008 Q3 in "real" (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth (see LUN).

But your larger point is right: People will pick the beginning and endpoints to suit their agendas, and the NBER does not have a particularly good track record in calling these things. The 2001 recession really began in 2000 (under Clinton), but Bush gets saddled with it because the NBER declared that it didn't begin until March 2001.

RichatUF
timed their announcement a week or so before the election. Romer, who was on the NBER at the time, was rewarded with a staff position in the White House.

I don't think that's right--I'm pretty sure that announcement came after the election. Romer was picked, I presume, for her ability to say things that she can't possibly believe and still keep a straight face.

[clarice]

I'm heading off to sleep, too--not with mel though in case you get any ideas about our slipping off at the same time.
narciso, these 17 aren't all the usual crowd..But I have to say I am astonished they'd support this goofball.

When Kerry ran for president he had a long list of ambassadors supporting him. At the time I did a bit of research and they all seemed to be on the Saudi tit in some way. If that's true of this crowd, it somehow is not so obvious.

[verner]

"I would say that the letter, along with the fact that Admiral Blair tapped Freeman in the first place, reflects the fact that a broadly realist orientation is pretty widespread among military, intelligence, and diplomatic professionals."

Clarice, "realist" certainly exist, we know that after watching the in-fighting and treachery at the CIA and State. But Chas Freeman is a paranoid loose cannon. Also, look as his background. He's no realist, he's an out and out advocate.

I wonder if he wasn't the puppet master and laundry guy for Saudi money going into those anti-war, pro-hamas peacenik grassroots loony bins. Obama might have made Blair's appointment conditional on picking Freeman for NIC. Payback. That would be my guess.

Too bad. Even DiFi had his number. If she didn't even want to go along with it, well...

[Ranger]

And another key metric to consider:

http://blogs.dailymail.com/donsurber/2009/03/11/thereisnobodythere/>“There is nobody there”

After 51 days in office, Barack Obama has appointed only 73 people to 1,200 jobs that require Senate confirmation.

That works out to... 6.08%. But to be fair, he is only 3.5% of the way through his term, so he is on glide path to staff the administration by the end of year 2.

[bad]

O's justice department. LUN

[RichatUF]

jimmyk-

You're right they called it in Dec 08-sorry for the goof up. Looked up this pretty good article too.

One day I won't be cynical anymore and then what am I going to do?

[verner]

From Bad's link:

Then there is Dawn Johnsen, who has been nominated to head the Office of Legal Counsel, which provides the president with opinions on the legality and constitutionality of his actions, particularly his efforts to keep our country secure from terrorism. Johnsen, who is the former legal director for NARAL, once said that there is “no ‘father’ and no ‘child’ — just a fetus,” and has compared pregnancy to slavery under the 13th Amendment. Her rantings in the left-wing blogosphere about the Bush administration’s war on terror are so polemic and so extreme, that she does not appear to have the capability to carry out her duties with the dispassionate professionalism that is the ultimate requirement for the head of the OLC. As the Wall Street Journal noted , she sees the OLC not as lawyers working on behalf of the president, “but as a policy outfit free to quash presidential actions with which it happens to disagree.” This is the type of behavior by a political zealot that in war time will lead directly to the deaths of American military personnel and civilians.

OH MY GOD what are the next 50 days going to bring us?

[clarice]

verner--that "realist" description was Yglesias' not mine. I think Chas is a either a total screwball or a made man for the Chinese and Saudis.Maybe both.

If I were President,I'd replace the DoS with some shrewd rug salesmen and car dealers who know this is their country and the CIA with a nice group of special ops specialists.

Think of the savings!

[verner]

"After 51 days in office, Barack Obama has appointed only 73 people to 1,200 jobs that require Senate confirmation."

Guess all the CPUSA members are having trouble with security clearance...

[clarice]

Yes, a friend wrote all concerned about Dawn--I figure she and Holder will be in a knife fight in a matter of weeks. She's the female nutball equivalent of Chas Freeman .

[verner]

Clarice, Relief, I thought you were going soft on me! LOL

[clarice]

"Office of Legal Counsel



By delegation from the Attorney General, the Assistant Attorney General in charge of the Office of Legal Counsel provides authoritative legal advice to the President and all the Executive Branch agencies. The Office drafts legal opinions of the Attorney General and also provides its own written opinions and oral advice in response to requests from the Counsel to the President, the various agencies of the Executive Branch, and offices within the Department. Such requests typically deal with legal issues of particular complexity and importance or about which two or more agencies are in disagreement. The Office also is responsible for providing legal advice to the Executive Branch on all constitutional questions and reviewing pending legislation for constitutionality.

All executive orders and proclamations proposed to be issued by the President are reviewed by the Office of Legal Counsel for form and legality, as are various other matters that require the President's formal approval.

In addition to serving as, in effect, outside counsel for the other agencies of the Executive Branch, the Office of Legal Counsel also functions as general counsel for the Department itself. It reviews all proposed orders of the Attorney General and all regulations requiring the Attorney General's approval. It also performs a variety of special assignments referred by the Attorney General or the Deputy Attorney General.

The Office of Legal Counsel is not authorized to give legal advice to private persons."

Heh--

[clarice]

Good night!! Verner, you really must start writing again.

[verner]

"Yes, a friend wrote all concerned about Dawn--I figure she and Holder will be in a knife fight in a matter of weeks."

Assuming Holder isn't just the front man Clarice.

[verner]

Kisses and sweet dreams Clarice!

[hit and run]

I'm going to bed with mel.

[Rick Ballard]

jimmyk,

That's an interesting table. It looks like they're doing a shell and pea with the oil spike. I wonder if they'll adjust '08 Q4 up for deflation?

[verner]

I'm going to bed with mel

And who said conservatives were boring...

Nite hit.

Me too, but not with Mel.

[hit and run]

Oh, one last thing before bed ... be sure and wish Jake Tapper a happy 40th tomorrow.

[hit and run]

No, wait...last, last thing ... Good night Verner.

[narciso]

Pickering should have been the tipoff on that score, but then again ,didn't he come out against Bolton, what seems a lifetime ago, only three years ago. One would call them cynics, but they're only cynical about
this country, they believe the other nation's propaganda implicitly, or at least lie convincingly for the paycheck.

I'd like to think that we're not headed for a massive downturn circa 1873 or 1893, then again they were less aggressively stupid back then, no such luck today Another fracken (a BSGism that serves to substitute
what I really mean) stimulus package, on the way, "Surely they can't be serious"; or the old standby from the Princess Bride
'that word you're using, it doesn't mean what you think it does"

[RichatUF]

verner-

OH MY GOD what are the next 50 days going to bring us?

The start of the show trials-I'm a bit surprised that Public Enemy #1 is Sheriff Arpaio, but anything to cement the Hispanic voting block in the Dem column. If McCain plays his cards right, he just might lose his seat to some well-funded, but unknown Democrat as all "his friends" decide to trash him.

A day after the Justice Department announced it is conducting a civil rights investigation of Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio's office, the chairman of the House Judiciary Committee said he will hold hearings to look into complaints that deputies enforcing immigration laws are discriminating against Hispanics.

One would think the Administration would be more worried about the kidnappings and murders in Phoenix caused by illegal aliens.

[narciso]

Not to worry though, Jeff Rosen interviewed her for the New Republic, and she says she won't go after people who followed John Yoo's advice. Is there a legal subsection of 'credentialed moron' that these people
compete for prizes, she must have been laughing her tookus off when that interview was over.

[Rick Ballard]

The facade is slipping on the Chinese Potemkin village.

The 25% drop in exports still seems a bit low compared to the rest of Asia.

[Willem van Oranje]

sjeez, what a buch a wankers y'all

[bad]

Thoughtsonline:

Like James Taranto, I don't care if Muslim home buyers are jumping through hoops pretending they're not paying interest when they buy houses... but I do have some questions about the Minnesota program:

* Why is the state of Minnesota doing this at all? Why is a state agency buying and selling houses to anyone? Why does a state agency need to be buying and selling houses?

* Given that the Muslim home buyer is paying an above market price for the house (since the purchase price is the sum of the current value of the property plus the sum of the would-be-paid interest, to what extent are these transactions adding to the number of 'underwater' homes, where the homeowner owes more on the house than the house is worth? Note: the reason this could matter is that the number of so-called underwater homes is used in part to justify Obama's mortgage plan.

* How does the home buyer sell the house? They're 'buying' the house for over twice the value (factoring in interest payments as principal), and if they sold it in, for example, five years, I doubt the value of the house would have appreciated enough for the house to be worth more than what the homeowner owes on this special mortgage... so how does the homeowner sell the house without getting into all kinds of problems with the lender?

* To the extent the state agency is selling the house for more than it is worth and, presumably, for more than the state paid to acquire the house, is the paper 'profit' being used in any way to balance the state budget?

* If the Muslim homeowner does somehow sell the house before the end of the mortgage period, at which point they presumably are selling for a loss (relative to their 'purchase' price) do they get to take a tax loss of any kind on the sale?

* Who is financing the mortgage and how do they deal with the situation where a borrower owes over twice as much on the mortgage as the house is worth? Is there a special section of the banking regulations that allows lenders leeway, some special box to check on some form, to make these kinds of loans?
---------------------------------

Great questions Steve. I'll bet the press is all over them and we'll have answers soon....

[bad]

LUN to thoughtsonline

[ben]

'Leaders of San Francisco's police officers union have accused Weather Underground co-founder Bill Ayers and his wife, Bernardine Dohrn, of taking part in the 1970 bombing of a city police station that killed a sergeant."

Where were these guys in October....

[BR]

I just read that article tonight also. Here's a link at Conservative heartthrob, Jim Kouri's blog at Examiner.com: Obama pal Ayers exposed as murderer of SFPD officer.

[pagar]

'Leaders of San Francisco's police officers union

There will be a lot of stories today, about how these police union leaders owe a lot of taxes, IMO.

[hit and run]

Good Morning JOM!

It's gonna be a great day!

I think I'll fritter and waste the hours in an offhand way

Or something.

[PeterUK]

Here is one number that should concern Barrack Husein Obama. Taleban chief released fro Guantanamo back in action.

[daddy]

Both that Bill Ayers and Taliban story ought to lead the news, but my cynical bet is that the number 1 story of the day is that Bristol Palin and Levi broke up. Why waste time bashing terrorists or Obama when re-bashing Sarah Palin is so much easier?

[Jane]

I bet you are right daddy - well that and Bernie Madoff.

[hit and run]

Bernie is going to bash Sarah?

[daddy]

AS for earlier China Downturn comments, my stories are pretty much all anecdotal, but I'm seeing huge reductions in what we are carrying out of China eastbound, and the numbers of fights, not just for us but among most other carriers over here, are way down as well. We have a huge new hub just opened in China, just an amazing facility, yet it is currently massively underutilized. And allow me to include this link as I was just here last weekend, and the number of empty cargo container ships riding high and dry here awaiting better economic times is way more than I have ever seen in my 30 years traversing Subic Bay, Philippines.

[DebinNC]

Randall Hoven effectively explains how we got in our current economic mess. Even if some here would find it too simplistic, I appreciate reading something that I can understand.

[DebinNC]

Daniel Henninger: The Obama Rosetta Stone

[verner]

Great article Deb. I believe you can find many of the quoted articles here in the JOM archive.

To make a long story short--the global markets failed because the socialist democrats distorted and manipulated them to achieve social engineering goals.

[DebinNC]

Karl Rove: "Misdirection never lasts long."

[verner]

Deb: Either you know instantly what "Piketty and Saez" means, or you don't. If you do, you spent the past two years working to get Barack Obama into the White House. If you don't, their posse has a six-week head start on you.

MARXISTS.

[Old Lurker]

Gotta stop reading the papers. Ruins perfectly good coffee.

Bookends today from WaPo:

Top A1 story is Geithner's plan to spend $100B (that's 10% of their new favorite word, Trillion) on money for other countries struggling with the recession.

Wonderful.

Locally, Gov of Maryland got a rule change yesterday preventing our gas and electric companies from turning off service to 100,000 of my neighbors who don't pay their bills. Guess I get to pay those for them too, on top of the gas in their tanks and their mortgages.

Edwards had it right, there are two Americas and one is living off the the other. And the Other is getting frickin tired of it.

[verner]

Emanuel Saez's homepage...at UC Berkeley--natch

LUN

[daddy]

Thanks Deb,

Until Mel gets out of bed and offers a better explanation, I'm sticking with your article.

[daddy]

Old Lurker,

In the San Fran East Bay area in I think 1992 or 1993 there was a water shortage and they wanted us all to start conserving. So we diligently all started conserving and then got our bills and the rates had gone up. "What the heck? we hollered. Answer was that we had done such a good job of conserving water that usage was way below average so their revenue was down, so they raised our rates in order to maintain their expected revenue income. That's when I pulled out most of the last of my hair.

[pagar]

I knew there would have to be a counterattack to keep the Ayers off the front page.
From the memeorandum teaser on the left.

At a “Great Conversations” event at the University of Minnesota last night, legendary investigative reporter Seymour Hersh may have made a little more news than he intended by talking about new alleged instances of domestic spying by the CIA, and about an ongoing covert military operation that he called an “executive assassination ring.”

[Strawman Cometh]

From Deb's Rove wsj link:
"In the face of our enormous economic challenges, top White House aides decided to pee on Mr. Limbaugh's leg."

[Old Lurker]

Daddy, that is being relived today with the gas tax. Proving once again how many toxic thoughts originate in SF! :-)

[narciso]

Sy Hersh, is still alive, so I'd say epic fail, to the assasination squad (to quote the Brit transplanted Texan Rachel Lucas)You know Sy, '24 is still a TV show, not real life. This sort of idea, did play a part in Leonard Downie's seemingly unsuccessful stab at clearly labeled fiction, so much so, even Michael Tomasky
turned his nose up at it in his review of it in the New Republic.

[kim]

Most of the perceived evil of Bush/Cheney was projected evil by the left. You watch, this is right up the progressives' alley. But they won't be reporting to Biden; it'll be Emmanuel.
===========================================

[DebinNC]

An after action report on the "hate speech" lecture at UMass last night which Thomas Collins son was part of sponsoring: LUN

What's scary is that the MSM is now clearly functioning as these biopic "protestors". If facts would disturb the preferred narrative, don't report them. If good alternatives to BO's plans are offered, ignore them. If Stimulous I fails, report that it's because it was too small... thus the need for Stimulous II. I'm not holding my breath that the public will wake up and see the truth, because the truth won't be reported in a way to fix blame where it belongs.

[Porchlight]

DebinNC, thanks for that UMass link. I hope Thomas Collins will have some more info for us later.

The only thing worse than a garden-variety leftist is a college age garden-variety leftist. My campus was pretty quiet in the late '80s/early '90s, but shortly thereafter got much more sit-in-ish. Glad I missed it.

[kim]

Yes, Deb, MSM has to have doubt enter in to their souls, and it's just possible that as all these progressive schemes come a cropper, that will happen. But, like you, I'm not holding my breath. It's not going to be easy for our free press to free itself.
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[bad]

Deb's Henninger link:

While middle-class families have been playing by the rules, living up to their responsibilities as neighbors and citizens, those at the commanding heights of our economy have not."

Just how badly was he treated by the rich kids at that chi-chi school in Hawaii?

[MayBee]

Isn't it weird, bad? Obama is himself a wealthy man. His friends run the gamut from fabulously wealthy to upper income wage earners. I wonder what he thinks of himself and all of his friends.

I remember an article about Obama's mom being unhappy at parties with the other expats in Indonesia. Her husband worked for an oil company, and she didn't want a part of that life, she wanted to be boho.
It's interesting, because after that Obama left her and led a pretty charmed life. If this were George W Bush, we'd be hearing about all kinds of mommy/daddy issues.

[kim]

It's appealing to class envy and it's demagoguery. What a putz. To think he can jawbone the market with that wishbone.
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[bad]

I wonder what he thinks of himself and all of his friends.

That they aren't rich enough and deserve more wealth because they will be responsible, ethical, transparent and accountable with with their wealth. And when they aren't, he'll issue ethics waivers.