David Brooks goes off the Obama Kool-Aid for a day, with humorous results:
...
These executives have been invited to make these donations in the same spirit that the Cossacks invited my ancestors to emigrate to the Lower East Side. And yet there is a moment during each of the ceremonies when the spirit of the Almighty descends upon the congregation. It usually happens while the president is describing the glorious future. He’ll be describing how, in three years, he will slash the deficit by cutting taxes and doubling spending. He will be describing how, in three years, he will create millions of jobs by raising energy costs.
You can see the ecstasy of Washington promise-making spread joy from soul to soul. Infected by these visions, automakers vow that in three years they will have created a resurgence of enthusiasm around the Chevy Aveo. Financiers vow they will build an entirely new banking industry that doesn’t rely so much on loan repayment. Health care executives vow that in three years they’ll perform CAT scans at Kinko’s.
“It's no wonder that truth is stranger than fiction. Fiction has to make sense.”
Mark Twain.
Posted by: daddy | May 27, 2009 at 05:12 PM
Note to file:
MBS market blew up today. Mortgage rates will follow very quickly. Treasury spreads also blew out with the popping of the long term bubble. It will be interesting to watch the spread close from the bottom. Oh well, tomorrow's another day. Probably.
PS - Tax deposit data reflect a steepening decline in the 63 day moving average. I have Q2 at -4% so far based on the current YoY. That's probably low based upon the fact that tax deposits for Q2 are running significantly lower (YoY) than Q1 (-10.11 v -8.14 for Q1).
Posted by: Rick Ballard | May 27, 2009 at 06:50 PM
So, how does this affect, the dollar, and, commodities?
Posted by: Pofarmer | May 27, 2009 at 06:57 PM
Rick, Po, here's that Chicken Little character. Po linked to him a couple months ago - a post mentioning the cities going "feral" which made for unusual reading.
Posted by: Jim Ryan | May 27, 2009 at 07:20 PM
Denninger may be a little overwrought(or not) but he's generally got a point.
Posted by: Pofarmer | May 27, 2009 at 07:52 PM
Pofarmer,
Wrt commodities, I think you'll have to apply EIT to some GS pimps to find out where they are going to push hot money next. I'd start with waterboarding followed by more waterboarding followed by a liberal application of your best cattle prod. After a few days of that you could start asking questions.
Absent the pimps churning the markets I'd say commodities ought to be at '05-'06 levels. That's where GDP is heading.
It's interesting to see the new memes being developed. 8% unemployment is the new "normal" and 2% growth is all that can be expected. Now a VAT proposal - that should fit nicely on top of the Air Taxes. The Obamunists are noticing that the golden geese aren't laying so they've decide to accelerate the imposition of choke collars across the board.
Sharp folks.
Posted by: Rick Ballard | May 27, 2009 at 08:41 PM
I think you'll have to apply EIT to some GS pimps
Rick, you really do crack me up.
Posted by: Pofarmer | May 27, 2009 at 10:27 PM
Ya know, I'm reading places that Cap and Tax might be in trouble. I wonder, is VAT being floated to replace it? Thing is, if Cap and Tax doesn't pass, won't EPA just regulate anyway?
Posted by: Pofarmer | May 27, 2009 at 10:40 PM
Pofarmer, pretty much, but I'm sure some sort of cap-and-trade for CO2 is going to pass-too many eco-cultists, Wall Streeters, and government bureaucrats want it. All the Dems have to do is tuck it into the budget bill during conference. The 2009 Budget is going to be a sprawling mess that makes the porkulus or even Hillarycare seem restrained in comparison. All sorts of nasty surprises are going to be tucked into that bill during conference.
Posted by: RichatUF | May 27, 2009 at 11:06 PM