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May 26, 2009

Comments

daddy

“It's no wonder that truth is stranger than fiction. Fiction has to make sense.”

Mark Twain.

Rick Ballard

Note to file:

MBS market blew up today. Mortgage rates will follow very quickly. Treasury spreads also blew out with the popping of the long term bubble. It will be interesting to watch the spread close from the bottom. Oh well, tomorrow's another day. Probably.

PS - Tax deposit data reflect a steepening decline in the 63 day moving average. I have Q2 at -4% so far based on the current YoY. That's probably low based upon the fact that tax deposits for Q2 are running significantly lower (YoY) than Q1 (-10.11 v -8.14 for Q1).

Pofarmer

So, how does this affect, the dollar, and, commodities?

Jim Ryan

Rick, Po, here's that Chicken Little character. Po linked to him a couple months ago - a post mentioning the cities going "feral" which made for unusual reading.

Pofarmer

Denninger may be a little overwrought(or not) but he's generally got a point.

Rick Ballard

Pofarmer,

Wrt commodities, I think you'll have to apply EIT to some GS pimps to find out where they are going to push hot money next. I'd start with waterboarding followed by more waterboarding followed by a liberal application of your best cattle prod. After a few days of that you could start asking questions.

Absent the pimps churning the markets I'd say commodities ought to be at '05-'06 levels. That's where GDP is heading.

It's interesting to see the new memes being developed. 8% unemployment is the new "normal" and 2% growth is all that can be expected. Now a VAT proposal - that should fit nicely on top of the Air Taxes. The Obamunists are noticing that the golden geese aren't laying so they've decide to accelerate the imposition of choke collars across the board.

Sharp folks.

Pofarmer

I think you'll have to apply EIT to some GS pimps

Rick, you really do crack me up.

Pofarmer

Ya know, I'm reading places that Cap and Tax might be in trouble. I wonder, is VAT being floated to replace it? Thing is, if Cap and Tax doesn't pass, won't EPA just regulate anyway?

RichatUF

Pofarmer, pretty much, but I'm sure some sort of cap-and-trade for CO2 is going to pass-too many eco-cultists, Wall Streeters, and government bureaucrats want it. All the Dems have to do is tuck it into the budget bill during conference. The 2009 Budget is going to be a sprawling mess that makes the porkulus or even Hillarycare seem restrained in comparison. All sorts of nasty surprises are going to be tucked into that bill during conference.

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Wilson/Plame