You know it's embarassing to have such a one sided interview of Bibi by DavidGregory,
embarassing for Gregory I mean, El Baradei, nukes as status symbols, really will you say that when your native Egypt has one.
The most interesting thing I heard today about the Iranian protests was a woman on CNN who lived there in 1979. She said the people in '79 went to the roofs at night to signal what was going to happen the next day by shouting. And she thinks that is also happening now.
The Iranis are amateurs when it comes to street fighting..They have yet to take over a utility truck or ambulance and use it to get behind the basij line nor have they yet run chains across the streets to pull up when the motorcycling Revolutionary Guards come thru with their batons..Send some French students there.
As for Obama's slide, it is still the economy stupid..but we are a nation that loves freedom fighters and his too little too late support rankles..makes us feel weak.
"The universal rights to assembly and free speech must be respected, and the United States stands with all who seek to exercise those rights, unless you're a right wing extremist attending a Tea Party."
The way the mediots are spinning Obama's part in this tragedy is jaw-dropping. They are actually asserting that Zero's Cairo speech was the catalyst for the uprising, and that he accomplished with one speech what Bush couldn't do for eight years. NURSE!
AJ Strata - among others has a frightening picture that's being used as a rallying symbol. Its a young girls who's just been shot in the face. I've never seen anything like it.
I expected a more massed operation of brutality. It look as if Khomenei needs to have Basij units to put down the revolt as he may not be able to trust his own Revolutionary Gaurd. There's many reports that some commanders have been arrested.
Clarice - I see their weakness as institutionalized, they are so used to being beat down by the Mullahs. I was very surprised to see them in the streets in the first place. I applaud their courage, but I think this will end very badly. I don't know, but I cannot imagine any of the public there is armed.
Obama hasn't even voted "present" here. He really is showing his true colors and acting like the Coward-In-Chief or Chicken-In-Chief instead of the Commander-In-Chief. His response is not inspiring in the least.
I guess he has to find a reason to hate first before being courageous.
There have been several videos of Nada's shooting online beginning yesterday--she is (was) very beautiful and seems to be someone they are rallying behind--the goddess of the revolt as it were.
PD. I think it is the generally law abiding and peaceful nature of these people.
Well Rezai was the former Guard commander and he's protested, the election to some degree, Qualibaf, the current mayor of Tehran is a former Guards general. Of course it is the nature of such a regime, to put a 'foot upon a human face, for an eternity'to quote '1984'. So maybe it's not so easy to crush the protesters, one would
certainly hope.
The way the mediots are spinning Obama's part in this tragedy is jaw-dropping. They are actually asserting that Zero's Cairo speech was the catalyst for the uprising, and that he accomplished with one speech what Bush couldn't do for eight years. NURSE!
But of course. Obama wants to strattle the issue, hope it doesn't hurt his poll numbers which would hurt his domestic agenda, and then take credit for the whole thing if it works out better than expected.
From the Obama Handbook:
Rule 4: Always Say Less than Necessary-When you are trying to impress people with words, the more you say, the more common you appear, and the less in control. Even if you are saying something banal, it will seem original if you make it vague, open-ended, and sphinxlike. Powerful people impress and intimidate by saying less. The more you say, the more likely you are to say something foolish.
Law 7: Get others to do the Work for you, but Always Take the Credit-Use the wisdom, knowledge, and legwork of other people to further your own cause. Not only will such assistance save you valuable time and energy, it will give you a godlike aura of efficiency and speed. In the end your helpers will be forgotten and you will be remembered. Never do yourself what others can do for you.
Law 20: Do Not Commit to Anyone-It is the fool who always rushes to take sides. Do not commit to any side or cause but yourself. By maintaining your independence, you become the master of others – playing people against one another, making them pursue you.
Anonymously, I hope. There is no reason to believe that the Ogabe Regime's thugs are less efficient that his soul mate's, Ahmadinnerjacket's, in collecting information on the opposition. That's a powerful image.
Fox News says that Basiji Headquarters was attacked. That's an escalation by the protestors in their capabilities. If the protestors fight the Basij to a draw thats a loss for Khomenei
((... although the outcome of the Iranian power struggle remains unclear, the unintended and indirect consequence of President Obama's offer for dialogue may be to have succeeded where threats had previously failed - seriously rattling Iran's hardline clerical establishment.))
tell me again how that 'offer for dialogue' with the clerical establishment SUCCEEDS with the people who hate the clerical establishment?
Update] The protests continued today. very scattered. our numbers have gone severely down. There are soldiers literally lined up on the streets. There is a very dark cloud over us. Please understand, we do not have any way of confirming how many people lost there lives in yesterdays massacre. They have cut all communications to a halt. Internet speeds are at 15kbps.
Good news though--Fox reported protests have spread throughout the country.
so 0's offering dialogue instead of confrontation to the clerical establishment so unnerved the establishment that the people rose up against it, all to 0's credit
I missed where 0 said that, does anyone have a link?
I'm pretty sure Obastard never said that exactly but that doesn't invalidate Ledeen's claim that the letter exists. Who knows what gets reported in Iran regarding what people say?
OL--He did say that or something very close to it as his initial comment..
verner--these people don't know how to do it. On PM the other day, Ledeen said they should start attcking the mullahs' commercial enterprises--the old Animal Farm "Officer, they're raiding the Piggle Wiggly" ploy to draw the baseji and Revolutionary Guards away from Tehran.
Hit, did you refusing to hang up and the robopoll go on "do loop" and you got in a bunch of votes? I do note that support among Dimocrats also dropped, and that of course was you.
"In an interview with CNBC, Obama was asked about the continued unrest in Iran following last week's election.
"First of all, it's important to understand that although there is amazing fervor taking place in Iran," Obama said, "the difference between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi in terms of their actual policies may not be as great as has been advertised."
"Either way," the president went on, "we're going to be dealing with an Iranian regime that has been hostile to the United States."
'
"First of all, it's important to understand that although there is amazing fervor taking place in the US," Ahmadinejad said, "the difference between Mugabe, Chavez and Obama in terms of their actual policies may not be as great as has been advertised."
Couldn't fit Andrew Sullivan into the four link limit (:-) but he's been posting some interesting stuff -- increasingly bookended by the usual moralizing.
There's enough repetition at the #iranelection Twitter site that I just refresh after reading the front page of new tweets. I don't really follow it for the messages, but for the links that folks post in them, which include everything from the latest pix and videos to instructions for dealing with tear gas and pepper spray. Along the way, there are heartbreaking warnings about things like going to hospitals for help if you are wounded because the Basiji are there taking names, or that they are following protesters home and marking their houses (remove with oil or lighter fluid!) for return visits at night.
Captain Hate: I'm pretty sure Obastard never said that exactly
Well, remember that Obama's statement in English would most likely have been translated into Farsi, then Mousavi's response would have been written in Farsi and then translated to English by the time we get to read it.
The other thing that's interesting about the Ras number is that up till now, Obama has always gotten a bump from his international road shows. It appears that folks are less enthusiastic about what the new "tough diplomacy" really looks like in action.
If I were the rebels right now I;'d stop so much twittering in Tehran and start contacting the disaffected minorities..the Arabs, Kurds, Baluchis, etc..some of which are in areas that are critical for oil extraction and shipping--cut off the mullah's money and enterprises--force the thugs to run there--then return to Tehran. There are no longer any news services working there anyway..no point in stupid, romantic gestures. FIGHT TO WIN DAMMIT.
"The way the mediots are spinning Obama's part in this tragedy is jaw-dropping. They are actually asserting that Zero's Cairo speech was the catalyst for the uprising".
This is a two edged sword. If,God forbid,there is a massacre or the uprising fails,ending in mas arrests and trials,this too will be placed at the door of Obama.
One thing I read in the NYT today is an article talking about how the moderate cleric before Ajad, I forgot his name, won two terms with overwhelming majorities. Then the reformers stopped voting as protest and Ajad won. If that moderate guy won with overwhelming majorities, and the Iranian libs were so hyped up this time around, it's obvious the results were a fraud.
"First of all, it's important to understand that although there is amazing fervor taking place in Iran," Obama said, "the difference between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi in terms of their actual policies may not be as great as has been advertised."
"Either way," the president went on, "we're going to be dealing with an Iranian regime that has been hostile to the United States."
However,if the uprising succeeds,the new power brokers might be more grateful than the current bunch who hate your guts.
hit, I kind of alluded to that in the following sentence of my post you quoted, because I used that to combat a troll at AoS. Speaking of trolls, strange that none seem to have cropped up here as they usually do when the mendacious mulatto has revealed another non-existent layer of his lack of principles. Or another layer of his principles which bear no relationship to anything in the Declaration of Independence or Constitution.
For McCain, the president is "doing well" because he is getting his legislation enacted. When you've spent that long a time inside the Beltway, you don't think in terms of whether a given bill is useful or disastrous; it is the process that defines success.
I agree the protestors need a plan. Just gathering in the street and twittering will lead to nowhere. I think it will take time, 5 to 10 years maybe, before the young people develop enough of an independent mindset to really fight it out. But they are taking small steps which will grow their confidence.
One thing I would be interested in also is some more info on Mousavi. What's his history, what did he say in the debates. Waiting to see some of that on the news but little on it so far. Must google I suppose.
((Speaking of trolls, strange that none seem to have cropped up here as they usually do when the mendacious mulatto has revealed another non-existent layer of his lack of principles. Or another layer of his principles which bear no relationship to anything in the Declaration of Independence or Constitution))
the mother ship still doesn't which way the wind is blowing so it has been unable, as yet, to issue any unequivocal talking points
A couple of pipelines and the sole gasoline refinery would do the trick. Perhaps next time, killing the chicken to scare the monkey seems to be working well enough for Khamenei at the moment. A couple of more nights of taking the Chicom advice regarding the effectiveness of after dark lynching rather than day time machine guns and the mullahs will be able to sleep as well as any muslim despot ever has.
JMHames: there's also been heartwarming stories and vids of protestors taking on the Basij. It looks as if the Basij are providing Khomenei his only asset as police are loathe to hurt their own folks. Will the Revolutionary Gaurd slaughter the protestors for Khomenei? I don't believe so.
We have a brief break in the rain and I am hauling my old broken down body to the pool. But I'm already packed, Rick..and my camos are pressed and ready for the trip.
It's a nineties thing today - govt health care legislation and the return of David Duval to the leaderboard. But with Iran it feels like 1978-79 all over again. Ricky Barnes will have to play like Gerald Ford to lose the Open. There's that 70's thing again!
"This is a two edged sword. If,God forbid,there is a massacre or the uprising fails,ending in mas arrests and trials,this
too will be placed at the door of Obama."
PUK, I hope you're right, but the mediots have shown that they are perfectly capable of excuting a 180 on their narrative when it suits them, and they seldom get called on it.
The twittering is mostly rank & file protesters, and while it sometimes serves as a way to pass info around, it's most important function is probably boosting morale. I'm not optimistic about the end game here, but the leaders of the reform movement -- the presidential contenders, Rafsanjani, and a few prominent clerics (who may well represent others) -- are all veterans of the Revolution and insiders of one sort of another, at one pivotal time or another, who presumably know where the pressure points might be.
The regime has almost every structural advantage, but it is not as monolithic as I had assumed up till now. While the reformists certainly come compromised by their former collusion in fascist Iranian governance, the confluence of experienced hands is perhaps the one thing that works in the challengers' favor. I'm wondering if they might even be able to play on the dissonance between Khamenei's insistence on Friday that this is a dispute "within the Islamic establishment" and the Great Satan narrative which must seem pretty transparent by now.
In any case, this looks like an accidental revolution to me, and I wouldn't be surprised if there's a lot of scrambling going on behind the scenes, perhaps on both sides. Without a massive, preemptive crackdown, I doubt that the current uprising will die quickly this time around. It looks like the dissident leaders recognize burned bridges when they see them. If they do not prevail, they will be disappeared in the purge which will surely ensue. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think Mousavi's preparations for martyrdom were symbolic.
I think that's rather on point, jmh--but I wonder if someone won't follow a more predictable coup format soon--you know grab an airpot and a t station or even a radio station--draw the troops out of the capital, etc etc,,
And whether the dissident minorities who've been giving the mullahs some out of town trouble won't be inspirited to blow up the refinery or the loading facilities or womething really devastating to their own funds and operations.
Rather than rehash my now boring visits to the Treasury Tax Deposit data, let's take a look at Tyler Durden's exploration of That's Not Fat, That's Muscle. I disagree with his conclusion that Uncle Sugar has been "pushing" benefits. A more logical explanation is that a lot more people on the "next rung up" are now enjoying Ogabe Funemployment.
The Ogabe Regime is flailing. My hunch is that the Kill Granny push on top of worsening unemployment is 'bridge too far', moving Ogabe's numbers toward their rightful place. The "all mullahs look the same to me" bit is just gravy.
I read somewhere that Mousavi's call for a demonstration to mourn the dead last week was straight out of the Revolutionary playbook. You go out to mourn en masse, more people are killed, which means more mourners for the next round....
I suspect it will take some time for the current ersatz leadership to put together a working revolutionary coalition, assuming that's the path they decide to take. The protesters are sort accidental revolutionaries too, and it's hard to know how long that iron will stay hot, but if anybody is capable of pulling off regime change, I would think this group has better prospects than most.
I've been meaning to ask you if you could give me a one line hook for Gramsci? I've looked him up, but memory being what it is, I'm still never sure precisely sure what folks mean when they refer to Gramscian impulses or otherwise use his name emblematically. I feel decidedly out of that particular loop!
So if Obama supports the protests in Iran, Khamenei will make the most of it, and then what? The people of Iran will say democracy is an American plot? Let's have a nuclear war? Cancel all elections forever?
Is it a revolution or a nascent civil war? Certainly this doesn't resemble the uprisings in Eastern Europe against the Soviet puppet regimes.However,anything that demonstrates the mortality of the Ayatollahs is to be welcomed.
The systematic utilization, amplification and exploitation of the natural impulse towards affinity by those charged with the responsibility for making hiring or admittance decisions within organizations targeted by the communists with the express aim of corrupting and weakening the institution.
Gramsci's targets of choice were education, media and the church and his followers were successful with all three. The Catholic church is the only organization which has had some success in rooting out the rot. JP2 started the process and B16 is continuing. On the protestant side the Methodists, Presbyterians, Lutherans and Anglicans are all in various states of schism due to the Gramscian termites gnawing at the foundations. The Gramscians have "won" (vide Pyrrhus, et al) in education and the media.
Ogabe is a "symbol of success" for all Gramscians. He couldn't advance an inch on his own merit yet he is President.
MaryD,
Certainly the MSM will flip flop, in America,but the rest of the world will remember,as they most inconveniently do. It won't do much for the Obama legacy.
12:51 PM ET -- Where are the guns? Some readers have been surprised not to see more guns in the hands of the Iranian demonstrators (they're not urging them to carry guns, by the way, just surprised not to see them in light of the violent crackdowns). Regarding this, NBC's Richard Engel reported this morning:
The information war is one war. But [the regime] is much more concerned about a real war. And the only people who are armed in this country, in Iran, are most of the ethnic minorities -- the Baluchis, the Kurds, the Arab populations. So if this protest movement spreads deeply into those areas, then you have a real significant threat against the regime. That is why you are seeing the regime try and say don't participate, this is a foreign-inspired coup, these people in the streets are rioters and terrorists who will be dealt with accordingly.
12:38 PM ET -- An alternative leadership structure. According to Al Arabiya (via reader Pasha), an outline of what Rafsanjani is pushing for among the clerical leadership:
Religious leaders are considering an alternative to the supreme leader structure after at least 13 people were killed in the latest unrest to shake Tehran and family members of Ayatollah Rafsanjani were arrested amid calls by former President Mohammad Khatami for the release of all protesters.
Iran's religious clerks in Qom and members of the Assembly of Experts...are mulling the formation of an alternative collective leadership to replace that of the supreme leader, sources in Qom told Al Arabiya on condition of anonymity.
The influential Rafsanjani, 75, heads two very powerful groups. The most important one is the Assembly of Experts, made up of senior clerics who can elect and dismiss the supreme leader. The second is the Expediency Council, a body that arbitrates disputes between parliament and the unelected Guardian Council, which can block legislation.
Members of the assembly are reportedly considering forming a collective ruling body and scrapping the model of Ayatollah Khomeini as a way out of the civil crisis that has engulfed Tehran in a series of protests.
The discussions have taken place in a series of secret meetings convened in the holy city of Qom and included Jawad al-Shahristani, the supreme representative of Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who is the foremost Shiite leader in Iraq.
That may qualify as burying the lede. When it comes to Shiite credentials, it's my impression that Al Sistani may trump Khamenei even in Iran. If he lends his weight to the reformers, I believe he will loom very large when the history of the 21st century Middle East is written.
There's also a note at 12:57 about the "mourning" rallies I mentioned above, this time at the behest of Ayatollah Montazeri.
Thanks Rick -- It will take a little pondering, but with your help, I'll get there. So it's a sort of subversive multiplier, using your position to hire on fellow travelers? Maybe this would be a good time to let it percolate further while I do the garden chores that have fallen by the Iranian wayside!
Yes, I noticed that bit about Sistani yesterday somewhere.
It'll be hard to deny the influence of the Iraq war on the lberation of Iran if he emerges as a force for removing the present theocracy and encouraging democracy--after all, one ot the tenets of the Shias (in direct contradiction to the Iranian mullahcracy) is that there should be a separation of mosque and state.
I'm particularly intrigued by the ironic turn of events with Sistani turning the tide in Iran. The Left, for years, has maundered on about Sistani surrendering our gains in Iraq to the Iranian mullahcracy. As they say, Sistani is a quietist, turning to Jefferson, Adams, and de Tocqueville for lessons in Democracy, which is not mentioned in the Koran. Islam, though, has a related concept, sometimes translated as 'justice' which requires that every member of a community have a voice.
It'll be hard to deny the influence of the Iraq war on the lberation of Iran if he emerges as a force for removing the present theocracy and encouraging democracy
The irony is that Sistani is in this position because of Bush. Yet Bush will get none of the credit -- that will all go to Obama.
Yes, yes, yes -- there is still a long way to go before credit is given.
Any input by anyone yet on who or what network/info organism may come out of this situation as a new, reliable source of information and opinion with legitimate sway and influence among the masses of the Middle East?
Yes, kim..It will be interesting to see. Steve Gilbert asks if Ibama will now get really, really tough and disinvite the Iranis from our 4th of Juky celebration..
Thanks.I have my questions about Lance and the veracity of some of the things he says but the effort to shut him up seems to go too far, I think.
Several letters have worn out on my keyboard--o,l,m,n,c---as I am not a touch typist but rather a hunt and peck one--it gets more difficult every day--I think I'd better spring for a new keyboard soon.
DrJ: Yet Bush will get none of the credit -- that will all go to Obama.
Well, Chuck Todd on MTP this morning apparently said Team BHO is angry O isn't getting more credit for his Cairo speech.
So sorry, Obama.
But someone (or someones probably) said here that we'll know the protests have punch when the women get involved (and I think it was JMH? who posted a link to a photo of the Furies).
Heh, Happy Father's Day, Mother. DrJ, I'd reverse the debt. Bush is only in his position, Victor of Iraq, because of Sistani, whose forgiveness of our first Gulf War betrayal and his faith in his own vision and Bush's steadfastness brought both our nations through the trial of this Iraqi Adventure.
Rasmussen = minus two. Wahoo!
Posted by: Danube of Thought | June 21, 2009 at 09:58 AM
You know it's embarassing to have such a one sided interview of Bibi by DavidGregory,
embarassing for Gregory I mean, El Baradei, nukes as status symbols, really will you say that when your native Egypt has one.
Posted by: narciso | June 21, 2009 at 10:19 AM
The most interesting thing I heard today about the Iranian protests was a woman on CNN who lived there in 1979. She said the people in '79 went to the roofs at night to signal what was going to happen the next day by shouting. And she thinks that is also happening now.
Posted by: Jane | June 21, 2009 at 10:22 AM
DOT,
I think we have Hit to thank - didn't he take a phone poll from Rasmussen yesterday?
Wahoo, indeed.
Posted by: susanne | June 21, 2009 at 10:29 AM
The Iranis are amateurs when it comes to street fighting..They have yet to take over a utility truck or ambulance and use it to get behind the basij line nor have they yet run chains across the streets to pull up when the motorcycling Revolutionary Guards come thru with their batons..Send some French students there.
As for Obama's slide, it is still the economy stupid..but we are a nation that loves freedom fighters and his too little too late support rankles..makes us feel weak.
Posted by: clarice | June 21, 2009 at 10:29 AM
"The universal rights to assembly and free speech must be respected, and the United States stands with all who seek to exercise those rights, unless you're a right wing extremist attending a Tea Party."
Posted by: Rocco | June 21, 2009 at 10:47 AM
The way the mediots are spinning Obama's part in this tragedy is jaw-dropping. They are actually asserting that Zero's Cairo speech was the catalyst for the uprising, and that he accomplished with one speech what Bush couldn't do for eight years. NURSE!
Posted by: MaryD | June 21, 2009 at 10:54 AM
AJ Strata - among others has a frightening picture that's being used as a rallying symbol. Its a young girls who's just been shot in the face. I've never seen anything like it.
I expected a more massed operation of brutality. It look as if Khomenei needs to have Basij units to put down the revolt as he may not be able to trust his own Revolutionary Gaurd. There's many reports that some commanders have been arrested.
Posted by: BobS | June 21, 2009 at 10:57 AM
Clarice - I see their weakness as institutionalized, they are so used to being beat down by the Mullahs. I was very surprised to see them in the streets in the first place. I applaud their courage, but I think this will end very badly. I don't know, but I cannot imagine any of the public there is armed.
Obama hasn't even voted "present" here. He really is showing his true colors and acting like the Coward-In-Chief or Chicken-In-Chief instead of the Commander-In-Chief. His response is not inspiring in the least.
I guess he has to find a reason to hate first before being courageous.
Posted by: PDinDetroit | June 21, 2009 at 11:01 AM
There have been several videos of Nada's shooting online beginning yesterday--she is (was) very beautiful and seems to be someone they are rallying behind--the goddess of the revolt as it were.
PD. I think it is the generally law abiding and peaceful nature of these people.
Posted by: clarice | June 21, 2009 at 11:06 AM
Good point Clarice.
Posted by: PDinDetroit | June 21, 2009 at 11:09 AM
Well Rezai was the former Guard commander and he's protested, the election to some degree, Qualibaf, the current mayor of Tehran is a former Guards general. Of course it is the nature of such a regime, to put a 'foot upon a human face, for an eternity'to quote '1984'. So maybe it's not so easy to crush the protesters, one would
certainly hope.
Posted by: narciso | June 21, 2009 at 11:12 AM
Hit, I sent AT a link to your brilliant graphic yesterday and Thom just wrote to say he's running it--agrees it's great. C
Posted by: clarice | June 21, 2009 at 11:12 AM
unless you're a right wing extremist attending a Tea Party."
Speaking of which, Caro and I went to a tea party yesterday - bad weather - no publicity and attended by 3-400 people.
Posted by: Jane | June 21, 2009 at 11:25 AM
Happy Fathers Day!
Posted by: BobS | June 21, 2009 at 11:26 AM
MaryD-
The way the mediots are spinning Obama's part in this tragedy is jaw-dropping. They are actually asserting that Zero's Cairo speech was the catalyst for the uprising, and that he accomplished with one speech what Bush couldn't do for eight years. NURSE!
But of course. Obama wants to strattle the issue, hope it doesn't hurt his poll numbers which would hurt his domestic agenda, and then take credit for the whole thing if it works out better than expected.
From the Obama Handbook:
Rule 4: Always Say Less than Necessary-When you are trying to impress people with words, the more you say, the more common you appear, and the less in control. Even if you are saying something banal, it will seem original if you make it vague, open-ended, and sphinxlike. Powerful people impress and intimidate by saying less. The more you say, the more likely you are to say something foolish.
Law 7: Get others to do the Work for you, but Always Take the Credit-Use the wisdom, knowledge, and legwork of other people to further your own cause. Not only will such assistance save you valuable time and energy, it will give you a godlike aura of efficiency and speed. In the end your helpers will be forgotten and you will be remembered. Never do yourself what others can do for you.
Law 20: Do Not Commit to Anyone-It is the fool who always rushes to take sides. Do not commit to any side or cause but yourself. By maintaining your independence, you become the master of others – playing people against one another, making them pursue you.
Posted by: RichatUF | June 21, 2009 at 11:27 AM
Thanks, Clarice!
(and Rick too, the inspiration and genesis of the idea)
Posted by: hit and run | June 21, 2009 at 11:28 AM
Clarice,
Anonymously, I hope. There is no reason to believe that the Ogabe Regime's thugs are less efficient that his soul mate's, Ahmadinnerjacket's, in collecting information on the opposition. That's a powerful image.
Posted by: Rick Ballard | June 21, 2009 at 11:29 AM
I've been using the Gaurdian live blog to follow
lun
Posted by: BobS | June 21, 2009 at 11:30 AM
Bob S. Thank you. Happy Father's Day to all.
Posted by: peter | June 21, 2009 at 11:35 AM
Fox News says that Basiji Headquarters was attacked. That's an escalation by the protestors in their capabilities. If the protestors fight the Basij to a draw thats a loss for Khomenei
Posted by: BobS | June 21, 2009 at 11:37 AM
Well I used the usual nom de plume which thinking people all know is a cover for my real name,Spengler.
Posted by: clarice | June 21, 2009 at 11:39 AM
Spengler is really Angela Jolie? Amazing.
Posted by: Rick Ballard | June 21, 2009 at 11:41 AM
*kicking Rick in shins** Hush now
Posted by: clarice | June 21, 2009 at 11:43 AM
Kicking and throwing ash trays, clarice? Time for anger management classes!
Posted by: DrJ | June 21, 2009 at 11:48 AM
Love, happiness and gratitude to all the JOM Daddies today, on their special day...
Posted by: verner | June 21, 2009 at 11:54 AM
Anger management or future first lady slot,Dr J?
Posted by: clarice | June 21, 2009 at 11:55 AM
Hmm. That means either that Mr Clarice is considering a run, or you have an eye on Zero.
I won't speculate.
Posted by: DrJ | June 21, 2009 at 11:58 AM
nuance is just so magical eh?
((... although the outcome of the Iranian power struggle remains unclear, the unintended and indirect consequence of President Obama's offer for dialogue may be to have succeeded where threats had previously failed - seriously rattling Iran's hardline clerical establishment.))
tell me again how that 'offer for dialogue' with the clerical establishment SUCCEEDS with the people who hate the clerical establishment?
geeesssch
Posted by: Parking Lot | June 21, 2009 at 11:59 AM
According to Michael Ledeen, Mousavi doesn't care much for the Ogabe Waffle.
One might hope that Ogabe finds himself firmly astride a high barbwire fence on a very steep slope.
Posted by: Rick Ballard | June 21, 2009 at 12:03 PM
Wasn't that interesting,Rick?
Posted by: clarice | June 21, 2009 at 12:09 PM
It just means that like 2 out of the last 3 Fisrt Ladies I share an anger management problem.GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
Posted by: clarice | June 21, 2009 at 12:10 PM
Yikes!
Posted by: DrJ | June 21, 2009 at 12:14 PM
Jeff, I think you could make a lot of oney with that poster. Why not ask Net Cafe if they'd print it for you and handle the sales?
Posted by: clarice | June 21, 2009 at 12:14 PM
(('In the name of the Iranian people, we want you to know that when you recently made the statement "Achmadinejad or Mousavi? Two of a kind,” .."'))
I missed where 0 said that, does anyone have a link?
Posted by: Parking Lot | June 21, 2009 at 12:32 PM
Hey happy Fathers day to all you fabulous dads.
Posted by: Jane | June 21, 2009 at 12:35 PM
Here's the latest facebook update I've gotten:
Update] The protests continued today. very scattered. our numbers have gone severely down. There are soldiers literally lined up on the streets. There is a very dark cloud over us. Please understand, we do not have any way of confirming how many people lost there lives in yesterdays massacre. They have cut all communications to a halt. Internet speeds are at 15kbps.
Good news though--Fox reported protests have spread throughout the country.
Posted by: verner | June 21, 2009 at 12:37 PM
On Rasmussen's -2
Apparently, all those paragons of the American Way who made Obama so unassailably popular are turning stupid again.
Posted by: JM Hanes | June 21, 2009 at 12:39 PM
beating the 'nuance' horse dead ...
so 0's offering dialogue instead of confrontation to the clerical establishment so unnerved the establishment that the people rose up against it, all to 0's credit
Posted by: Parking Lot | June 21, 2009 at 12:43 PM
I missed where 0 said that, does anyone have a link?
I'm pretty sure Obastard never said that exactly but that doesn't invalidate Ledeen's claim that the letter exists. Who knows what gets reported in Iran regarding what people say?
Posted by: Captain Hate | June 21, 2009 at 12:45 PM
((I'm pretty sure Obastard never said that exactly but that ..))
okay, I thought I'd missed some major statement or speech
Posted by: Parking Lot | June 21, 2009 at 12:56 PM
OL--He did say that or something very close to it as his initial comment..
verner--these people don't know how to do it. On PM the other day, Ledeen said they should start attcking the mullahs' commercial enterprises--the old Animal Farm "Officer, they're raiding the Piggle Wiggly" ploy to draw the baseji and Revolutionary Guards away from Tehran.
Posted by: clarice | June 21, 2009 at 01:00 PM
Hit, did you refusing to hang up and the robopoll go on "do loop" and you got in a bunch of votes? I do note that support among Dimocrats also dropped, and that of course was you.
Can you make it rain too?
Posted by: Gmax | June 21, 2009 at 01:01 PM
The Iranian situation is an excellent object lesson on the relationship between freedom and the 2nd Amendment
Posted by: Parking Lot | June 21, 2009 at 01:01 PM
PL:
"In an interview with CNBC, Obama was asked about the continued unrest in Iran following last week's election.
"First of all, it's important to understand that although there is amazing fervor taking place in Iran," Obama said, "the difference between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi in terms of their actual policies may not be as great as has been advertised."
"Either way," the president went on, "we're going to be dealing with an Iranian regime that has been hostile to the United States."
'
Posted by: clarice | June 21, 2009 at 01:02 PM
"First of all, it's important to understand that although there is amazing fervor taking place in the US," Ahmadinejad said, "the difference between Mugabe, Chavez and Obama in terms of their actual policies may not be as great as has been advertised."
Posted by: Rick Ballard | June 21, 2009 at 01:07 PM
Here are a few links to sites that are live-blogging developments:
Nico Pitney at HuffPo is worth constant refreshing
The Lede at the NY Times
Newsblog at the Guardian
naicINnsight at theNational Iranian American Council
Couldn't fit Andrew Sullivan into the four link limit (:-) but he's been posting some interesting stuff -- increasingly bookended by the usual moralizing.
There's enough repetition at the #iranelection Twitter site that I just refresh after reading the front page of new tweets. I don't really follow it for the messages, but for the links that folks post in them, which include everything from the latest pix and videos to instructions for dealing with tear gas and pepper spray. Along the way, there are heartbreaking warnings about things like going to hospitals for help if you are wounded because the Basiji are there taking names, or that they are following protesters home and marking their houses (remove with oil or lighter fluid!) for return visits at night.
Posted by: JM Hanes | June 21, 2009 at 01:08 PM
clarice
thanks a bunch ... I was gonna go hunting
I'm very glad to know the quote while not exact is accurate
Posted by: Parking Lot | June 21, 2009 at 01:09 PM
and John McCain approves of the job Obama has been doing as president so far, as reported by AP.
There are no principles in Washington any more only alignments of interests between sleazebuckets.
Posted by: matt | June 21, 2009 at 01:09 PM
Captain Hate:
I'm pretty sure Obastard never said that exactly
Well, remember that Obama's statement in English would most likely have been translated into Farsi, then Mousavi's response would have been written in Farsi and then translated to English by the time we get to read it.
Posted by: hit and run | June 21, 2009 at 01:11 PM
If only Obama were a Republican. Then McCain would find the courage deep within to criticize him.
Posted by: PaulL | June 21, 2009 at 01:15 PM
The other thing that's interesting about the Ras number is that up till now, Obama has always gotten a bump from his international road shows. It appears that folks are less enthusiastic about what the new "tough diplomacy" really looks like in action.
Posted by: JM Hanes | June 21, 2009 at 01:15 PM
If I were the rebels right now I;'d stop so much twittering in Tehran and start contacting the disaffected minorities..the Arabs, Kurds, Baluchis, etc..some of which are in areas that are critical for oil extraction and shipping--cut off the mullah's money and enterprises--force the thugs to run there--then return to Tehran. There are no longer any news services working there anyway..no point in stupid, romantic gestures. FIGHT TO WIN DAMMIT.
Posted by: clarice | June 21, 2009 at 01:24 PM
MaryD
"The way the mediots are spinning Obama's part in this tragedy is jaw-dropping. They are actually asserting that Zero's Cairo speech was the catalyst for the uprising".
This is a two edged sword. If,God forbid,there is a massacre or the uprising fails,ending in mas arrests and trials,this too will be placed at the door of Obama.
Posted by: PeterUK | June 21, 2009 at 01:26 PM
((and John McCain approves of the job Obama has been doing as president so far, as reported by AP.))
vomit
Posted by: Parking Lot | June 21, 2009 at 01:26 PM
One thing I read in the NYT today is an article talking about how the moderate cleric before Ajad, I forgot his name, won two terms with overwhelming majorities. Then the reformers stopped voting as protest and Ajad won. If that moderate guy won with overwhelming majorities, and the Iranian libs were so hyped up this time around, it's obvious the results were a fraud.
Posted by: sylvia | June 21, 2009 at 01:27 PM
"First of all, it's important to understand that although there is amazing fervor taking place in Iran," Obama said, "the difference between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi in terms of their actual policies may not be as great as has been advertised."
"Either way," the president went on, "we're going to be dealing with an Iranian regime that has been hostile to the United States."
However,if the uprising succeeds,the new power brokers might be more grateful than the current bunch who hate your guts.
Posted by: PeterUK | June 21, 2009 at 01:28 PM
hit, I kind of alluded to that in the following sentence of my post you quoted, because I used that to combat a troll at AoS. Speaking of trolls, strange that none seem to have cropped up here as they usually do when the mendacious mulatto has revealed another non-existent layer of his lack of principles. Or another layer of his principles which bear no relationship to anything in the Declaration of Independence or Constitution.
Posted by: Captain Hate | June 21, 2009 at 01:29 PM
For McCain, the president is "doing well" because he is getting his legislation enacted. When you've spent that long a time inside the Beltway, you don't think in terms of whether a given bill is useful or disastrous; it is the process that defines success.
I just wish the man would go away.
Posted by: Danube of Thought | June 21, 2009 at 01:34 PM
I agree the protestors need a plan. Just gathering in the street and twittering will lead to nowhere. I think it will take time, 5 to 10 years maybe, before the young people develop enough of an independent mindset to really fight it out. But they are taking small steps which will grow their confidence.
One thing I would be interested in also is some more info on Mousavi. What's his history, what did he say in the debates. Waiting to see some of that on the news but little on it so far. Must google I suppose.
Posted by: sylvia | June 21, 2009 at 01:35 PM
If,God forbid,there is a massacre or the uprising fails,ending in mas arrests and trials,this too will be placed at the door of Obama.
Oh good, he can get tried at the Hague - since his side loves that stuff.
Posted by: Jane | June 21, 2009 at 01:36 PM
((Speaking of trolls, strange that none seem to have cropped up here as they usually do when the mendacious mulatto has revealed another non-existent layer of his lack of principles. Or another layer of his principles which bear no relationship to anything in the Declaration of Independence or Constitution))
the mother ship still doesn't which way the wind is blowing so it has been unable, as yet, to issue any unequivocal talking points
Posted by: Parking Lot | June 21, 2009 at 01:44 PM
Clarice,
A couple of pipelines and the sole gasoline refinery would do the trick. Perhaps next time, killing the chicken to scare the monkey seems to be working well enough for Khamenei at the moment. A couple of more nights of taking the Chicom advice regarding the effectiveness of after dark lynching rather than day time machine guns and the mullahs will be able to sleep as well as any muslim despot ever has.
Posted by: Rick Ballard | June 21, 2009 at 01:56 PM
((I agree the protestors need a plan.))
What they need is a leader ... I hope they have some kind of general directing them from the underground who the authorities can't get to
Posted by: Parking Lot | June 21, 2009 at 01:59 PM
JMHames: there's also been heartwarming stories and vids of protestors taking on the Basij. It looks as if the Basij are providing Khomenei his only asset as police are loathe to hurt their own folks. Will the Revolutionary Gaurd slaughter the protestors for Khomenei? I don't believe so.
Posted by: BobS | June 21, 2009 at 02:09 PM
Rick, they need us there. Suit up!
Bob, the Revolutiomary Guard is no better than the Basij--the trick is the professional military.
Posted by: clarice | June 21, 2009 at 02:13 PM
We have a brief break in the rain and I am hauling my old broken down body to the pool. But I'm already packed, Rick..and my camos are pressed and ready for the trip.
Posted by: clarice | June 21, 2009 at 02:25 PM
It's a nineties thing today - govt health care legislation and the return of David Duval to the leaderboard. But with Iran it feels like 1978-79 all over again. Ricky Barnes will have to play like Gerald Ford to lose the Open. There's that 70's thing again!
Posted by: Jack is Back! | June 21, 2009 at 02:39 PM
Clarice,
Don't forget the the calthrops and the piano wire,wonderful for motorcyclists.
Posted by: PeterUK | June 21, 2009 at 02:42 PM
Jack is Back:
Ricky Barnes will have to play like Gerald Ford to lose the Open. There's that 70's thing again!
Ricky is certainly wearing an old pair of Ford's pants.
Posted by: hit and run | June 21, 2009 at 02:50 PM
Isn't Ricky Barnes spectacular - even if his 6 shot lead is down to 3?
Where is Elliott for our color commentary.
Posted by: Jane | June 21, 2009 at 03:12 PM
What do you ,mean,"Don't forget"? I assumed you were already in place with the materiale we need,PUK.
Posted by: clarice | June 21, 2009 at 03:25 PM
There's never enough piano wire. With a surplus we can build pianos.
Posted by: Beating strings into songs. | June 21, 2009 at 03:36 PM
"This is a two edged sword. If,God forbid,there is a massacre or the uprising fails,ending in mas arrests and trials,this
too will be placed at the door of Obama."
PUK, I hope you're right, but the mediots have shown that they are perfectly capable of excuting a 180 on their narrative when it suits them, and they seldom get called on it.
Posted by: MaryD | June 21, 2009 at 03:38 PM
Keep it up, MaryD; that's at least two out of the park that I've seen.
Posted by: A swing and a smash. | June 21, 2009 at 03:40 PM
The twittering is mostly rank & file protesters, and while it sometimes serves as a way to pass info around, it's most important function is probably boosting morale. I'm not optimistic about the end game here, but the leaders of the reform movement -- the presidential contenders, Rafsanjani, and a few prominent clerics (who may well represent others) -- are all veterans of the Revolution and insiders of one sort of another, at one pivotal time or another, who presumably know where the pressure points might be.
The regime has almost every structural advantage, but it is not as monolithic as I had assumed up till now. While the reformists certainly come compromised by their former collusion in fascist Iranian governance, the confluence of experienced hands is perhaps the one thing that works in the challengers' favor. I'm wondering if they might even be able to play on the dissonance between Khamenei's insistence on Friday that this is a dispute "within the Islamic establishment" and the Great Satan narrative which must seem pretty transparent by now.
In any case, this looks like an accidental revolution to me, and I wouldn't be surprised if there's a lot of scrambling going on behind the scenes, perhaps on both sides. Without a massive, preemptive crackdown, I doubt that the current uprising will die quickly this time around. It looks like the dissident leaders recognize burned bridges when they see them. If they do not prevail, they will be disappeared in the purge which will surely ensue. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think Mousavi's preparations for martyrdom were symbolic.
Posted by: JM Hanes | June 21, 2009 at 03:52 PM
I think that's rather on point, jmh--but I wonder if someone won't follow a more predictable coup format soon--you know grab an airpot and a t station or even a radio station--draw the troops out of the capital, etc etc,,
And whether the dissident minorities who've been giving the mullahs some out of town trouble won't be inspirited to blow up the refinery or the loading facilities or womething really devastating to their own funds and operations.
Posted by: clarice | June 21, 2009 at 03:57 PM
Rather than rehash my now boring visits to the Treasury Tax Deposit data, let's take a look at Tyler Durden's exploration of That's Not Fat, That's Muscle. I disagree with his conclusion that Uncle Sugar has been "pushing" benefits. A more logical explanation is that a lot more people on the "next rung up" are now enjoying Ogabe Funemployment.
The Ogabe Regime is flailing. My hunch is that the Kill Granny push on top of worsening unemployment is 'bridge too far', moving Ogabe's numbers toward their rightful place. The "all mullahs look the same to me" bit is just gravy.
Posted by: Rick Ballard | June 21, 2009 at 04:12 PM
Clarice:
I read somewhere that Mousavi's call for a demonstration to mourn the dead last week was straight out of the Revolutionary playbook. You go out to mourn en masse, more people are killed, which means more mourners for the next round....
I suspect it will take some time for the current ersatz leadership to put together a working revolutionary coalition, assuming that's the path they decide to take. The protesters are sort accidental revolutionaries too, and it's hard to know how long that iron will stay hot, but if anybody is capable of pulling off regime change, I would think this group has better prospects than most.
Posted by: JM Hanes | June 21, 2009 at 04:16 PM
Rick:
I've been meaning to ask you if you could give me a one line hook for Gramsci? I've looked him up, but memory being what it is, I'm still never sure precisely sure what folks mean when they refer to Gramscian impulses or otherwise use his name emblematically. I feel decidedly out of that particular loop!
Posted by: JM Hanes | June 21, 2009 at 04:22 PM
So if Obama supports the protests in Iran, Khamenei will make the most of it, and then what? The people of Iran will say democracy is an American plot? Let's have a nuclear war? Cancel all elections forever?
The idea is ludicrous.
Posted by: Fred2 | June 21, 2009 at 04:29 PM
Usually, if I recall my coups, a smart colonel pops up to pull the final block from the bottom of the pyramid.
Posted by: clarice | June 21, 2009 at 04:29 PM
Is it a revolution or a nascent civil war? Certainly this doesn't resemble the uprisings in Eastern Europe against the Soviet puppet regimes.However,anything that demonstrates the mortality of the Ayatollahs is to be welcomed.
Posted by: PeterUK | June 21, 2009 at 04:35 PM
Gosh, fred..a thinker! Where would the bien pensants be if there were more of you.
Posted by: clarice | June 21, 2009 at 04:35 PM
JMH,
The systematic utilization, amplification and exploitation of the natural impulse towards affinity by those charged with the responsibility for making hiring or admittance decisions within organizations targeted by the communists with the express aim of corrupting and weakening the institution.
Gramsci's targets of choice were education, media and the church and his followers were successful with all three. The Catholic church is the only organization which has had some success in rooting out the rot. JP2 started the process and B16 is continuing. On the protestant side the Methodists, Presbyterians, Lutherans and Anglicans are all in various states of schism due to the Gramscian termites gnawing at the foundations. The Gramscians have "won" (vide Pyrrhus, et al) in education and the media.
Ogabe is a "symbol of success" for all Gramscians. He couldn't advance an inch on his own merit yet he is President.
Posted by: Rick Ballard | June 21, 2009 at 04:43 PM
MaryD,
Certainly the MSM will flip flop, in America,but the rest of the world will remember,as they most inconveniently do. It won't do much for the Obama legacy.
Posted by: PeterUK | June 21, 2009 at 04:45 PM
Wow. All kinds of good stuff via Huff Po:
That may qualify as burying the lede. When it comes to Shiite credentials, it's my impression that Al Sistani may trump Khamenei even in Iran. If he lends his weight to the reformers, I believe he will loom very large when the history of the 21st century Middle East is written.There's also a note at 12:57 about the "mourning" rallies I mentioned above, this time at the behest of Ayatollah Montazeri.
Posted by: JM Hanes | June 21, 2009 at 04:57 PM
Thanks Rick -- It will take a little pondering, but with your help, I'll get there. So it's a sort of subversive multiplier, using your position to hire on fellow travelers? Maybe this would be a good time to let it percolate further while I do the garden chores that have fallen by the Iranian wayside!
Posted by: JM Hanes | June 21, 2009 at 05:12 PM
Yes, I noticed that bit about Sistani yesterday somewhere.
It'll be hard to deny the influence of the Iraq war on the lberation of Iran if he emerges as a force for removing the present theocracy and encouraging democracy--after all, one ot the tenets of the Shias (in direct contradiction to the Iranian mullahcracy) is that there should be a separation of mosque and state.
Some very professional video by a rebel group:
http://trancy.net/iran/anon/
Posted by: clarice | June 21, 2009 at 05:13 PM
I'm particularly intrigued by the ironic turn of events with Sistani turning the tide in Iran. The Left, for years, has maundered on about Sistani surrendering our gains in Iraq to the Iranian mullahcracy. As they say, Sistani is a quietist, turning to Jefferson, Adams, and de Tocqueville for lessons in Democracy, which is not mentioned in the Koran. Islam, though, has a related concept, sometimes translated as 'justice' which requires that every member of a community have a voice.
Posted by: He's the Master of the Mosque. | June 21, 2009 at 05:34 PM
It'll be hard to deny the influence of the Iraq war on the lberation of Iran if he emerges as a force for removing the present theocracy and encouraging democracy
The irony is that Sistani is in this position because of Bush. Yet Bush will get none of the credit -- that will all go to Obama.
Yes, yes, yes -- there is still a long way to go before credit is given.
Posted by: DrJ | June 21, 2009 at 05:40 PM
Any input by anyone yet on who or what network/info organism may come out of this situation as a new, reliable source of information and opinion with legitimate sway and influence among the masses of the Middle East?
Posted by: daddy | June 21, 2009 at 05:45 PM
Yes, kim..It will be interesting to see. Steve Gilbert asks if Ibama will now get really, really tough and disinvite the Iranis from our 4th of Juky celebration..
Posted by: clarice | June 21, 2009 at 05:49 PM
**JuLy**
Posted by: clarice | June 21, 2009 at 05:57 PM
Clarice,
I know Mark Twain said something about minding our "P's and Q's" but I can't find anything about him saying to mind our "L's and K's". :)
Nice AT story on Fitz by the way.
Posted by: daddy | June 21, 2009 at 05:59 PM
Thanks.I have my questions about Lance and the veracity of some of the things he says but the effort to shut him up seems to go too far, I think.
Several letters have worn out on my keyboard--o,l,m,n,c---as I am not a touch typist but rather a hunt and peck one--it gets more difficult every day--I think I'd better spring for a new keyboard soon.
Posted by: clarice | June 21, 2009 at 06:07 PM
Rumores of a general strike on Tuesday.
Another great utube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2kGSwN0pqkE
Posted by: clarice | June 21, 2009 at 06:14 PM
Clarice,
I like how you responded to my comment on AT by calling me "faffy." That's a keeper. Wonder if faffy means anything in Japanese?
Please take all this in good humor. Or instead, feel free to tell me to go get fulled:)
Posted by: daddy | June 21, 2009 at 06:17 PM
DrJ:
Yet Bush will get none of the credit -- that will all go to Obama.
Well, Chuck Todd on MTP this morning apparently said Team BHO is angry O isn't getting more credit for his Cairo speech.
So sorry, Obama.
But someone (or someones probably) said here that we'll know the protests have punch when the women get involved (and I think it was JMH? who posted a link to a photo of the Furies).
Well. You know what that means.
NewCool: It was http://news.yahoo.com/s/huffpost/20090617/cm_huffpost/216841;_ylt=Anicat3svku0xWIDi2xqHY6s0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTFlOGZlOWxrBHBvcwMyMTkEc2VjA2FjY29yZGlvbl9vcGluaW9uBHNsawNyZWFkaW5ndGhlcGk->Michelle Obama's fabulously toned arms which led to the Iranians being emobldened to rise up against the regime.
Posted by: hit and run | June 21, 2009 at 06:20 PM
Heh, Happy Father's Day, Mother. DrJ, I'd reverse the debt. Bush is only in his position, Victor of Iraq, because of Sistani, whose forgiveness of our first Gulf War betrayal and his faith in his own vision and Bush's steadfastness brought both our nations through the trial of this Iraqi Adventure.
Posted by: She's the Priestess of the Island. | June 21, 2009 at 06:35 PM