Here's A Sucker Bet - I Just Wonder Who The Sucker Is

Nate Silver, not a natural nominee for "Sucker du Jour", proposes a sucker bet related to our changing climate, the heart of which is this:

The rules of the challenge are as follows:

1. For each day that the high temperature in your hometown is at least 1 degree Fahrenheit above average, as listed by Weather Underground, you owe me $25. For each day that it is at least 1 degree Fahrenheit below average, I owe you $25.
2. The challenge proceeds in monthly intervals, with the first month being August. At the end of each month, we'll tally up the winning and losing days and the loser writes the winner a check for the balance.

As to sources, Mr.Silver suggests the Weather Underground for daily history and the averages.

Now, why is this a sucker bet and who is the sucker?  Well, where are the averages coming from?  As best I can infer from a quick Sunday scan, the Weather Underground quite laudably compiles data from hobbyists, airports, television news stations, colleges, State agencies, and no doubt other sources.  If a particular site only has data going back three years, is the "average" for that site just the results for the past  three years?  If so, find me a site with two years of data and a heat wave last summer, and I am ready to bet.  (Five minutes with the Weather Underground did not lead me to an answer (the Weather Underground for Bridgeport, CT cites the NWS for something - records, averages?), but I welcome guidance on this point.)  Hmm, Bridgeport Normal is based on 1971-2000.]

In the intro to his post Mr. Silver provides as a specific example his appraisal of the weather in Minneapolis, and draws on data from the Weather Channel to provide the average temperature.  So, I have the same question - what is the Weather Channel using for "average" temperature data?  If they are averages from 1890 through 2008, well, c'mon - that includes a lot of decades that were cooler than we have been having lately, in which case Mr.Silver is playing us for chumps.  On the other hand, if the Weather Channel average is for something a bit closer to home, such as the last five years, then Mr. Silver runs the risk that some enterprising blogger will pick out a few locales that had heat waves in the past few years and are likely to be cooler than the recent average.  In which case, who was the chump, hmm?

Time does not permit me to sort out these details today (the bet closes tomorrow!), but as noted, I welcome guidance as to how the Weather Underground and the Weather Channel produce their average temperature results.  I am strangely confident that someone will be learning something.

ON BEHALF OF THE POWERGUYS:  Nate Silver rebuts John Hinderaker's assertion that it has been a cool summer in Minneapolis by reviewing data from June 21 to Mid July.  Very literal!  However, the National Weather Service has an understanding of summer that jibes more closely with human convention.  Here is their assessment of the Minnesota area:

Meteorological summer (June 1st-August 31st) has just passed its halfway point.  Looking back at this summer thus far, marked dryness has prevailed over much of the area.  This has been the rule for much of the area through 2009, especially eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.  Thunderstorms have been far less numerous than last year, as well as below the five year average.  Similarly, severe weather numbers are also well below normal, after a very late start.  Cooler than normal temperatures have prevailed with summer averages at area sites ranging from 1.5° to 5° below normal.

"Meteorological summer"?  Fashionista summer is Memorial Day to Labor Day, I am told.

YOUR TAX DOLLARS AT WORK:  I have no idea what they do or how they do it but the National Weather Service provides experimental one and three month forecasts of temperature and precipitation.

Per these charts (1, 2), Minneapolis is predicted to have below average temperatures for August and for August-October.  The Northeast is sort of a toss-up.  And yes, I still am hazy on the definition of "average".

CHANNELING MY INNER WEATHER GEEK:  Even if there is a global trend towards warming, there can be huge and somewhat predictable regional swings that bury the global trend.  For example, in North America we contend with El Nino, La Nina, and Los Ninjas.  Or for more drama, in Western Europe global warming may actually trigger a new ice age as the flow of fresh water into the North Atlantic from melting Greenland ice caps disrupts the Gulf Stream which normally warms Europe.

HELPFUL RESOURCES:  Historic mean temperature data here.

Comments

[Pops]

The sucker part comes in because he is using AVERAGE temperature, which would be the middle between the highs and the lows. What exactly does that have to do with global warming. If they actually believe in global warming the should be betting that it will be hotter then the hottest temperature on record for that day.

Of course they would go broke real quick.

Of course in summer time, your daily temperature is damn likely to be hotter then the average simply because of growth
and heat affects in population centers.

How about we go by global satellite temperatures
say over the last ten years and we can settle up right now.

I am not dumb enough to think the ground affect temperatures around the thermometer at the airport haven't increased since the 1920s when it was out in the middle of filed and now its in the middle of the industrial district.

[Rob Crawford]

The funny thing is, it's the AGW skeptics who have predicted cooler summers. So this really should be a feather in the cap of the people who noticed we've been cooling for the last decade, that the sun's been remarkably free of sunspots -- which historically correlates with cooler weather.

If the AGW boosters had an ounce of honesty, they'd not try to play numbers games, and just admit it's a cool summer.

Given their track record, I expect them to announce this has actually been the Warmingest Summer Ever in the History of the Planet Really Truly We Mean It.

[Pops]

Their complaint appears to be that the right is using cold weather to make fun of global warming, and totally ignoring the lefts use of weather events to predict dire global warming for two decades.

Have they already forgotten the poor polar bears floating on that very last piece of ice and Al Gores collapsing glaciers done on a Hollywood sound stage?

[Frau Celsius]

Nate was more trustworthy, IMHO, when he stuck to baseball. His transformation into a political genius attracts the worst of the extreme left. He might as well sign in as Nate Quicksilver.

[Pofarmer]

If you are interested in some interior temps, from Rural stations with pretty decent siting in my experience, check these out.

http://agebb.missouri.edu/weather/history/index.asp

It's a shame that it only goes back to 2000, but I've found it quite interesting. I've gone through two or three series back to 2000, and I found something pretty interesting. Yes, the avg temperature has crept up BUT, the high temperatures are static to falling. It's the low temperatures creeping up that are driving the "averages". What does this mean? Well, to me it means that the theories about clouds regulating our climate probably ring quite true. Clouds reflect heat during the day, and tend to hold it in at night. I can't seem to get anybody at any of the "climate" blogs interested in this. I've tried at Climate Audit and Wattupwiththat to no avail.

[Jack is Back!]

All I can add to this non-scientific gamble is that in my part of Florida it is usual - hot and humid - but not out of the ordinary. Also, in The Hamptons (my birthplace and summer residence it was the coldest and almost wettest June in years). Here in Belgium, it is - well its Belgium - sunny, rainy, sunny, rainy, cool, warm, cool, rainy, warm, sunny, cool, windy, warm , cool and cloudy - just like the last hour. Crossing the Atlantic it was to start nice and sunny then cloudy and cool and then rainy. Just like it is supposed to be in the middle of the high Atlantic. I do not remember it ever being different in any place.

Now, Tom Watson had a valiant effort. He should have won on the 18th - we all know that. His legs gave out. My God, the man has an artificial hip and is going on 60. I am sure Stuart Cink is proud of his victory over the guy from the nursing home but it is pyrrhic at least.

While on this subject, one of the BBC commentators mentioned that the water use to come up to the side of one of the holes but has since receded. What? I thought the oceans, especially that far north near the arctic were supposed to be rising not receding. He said it had dropped by 4 to 6 feet since 1977. How is this possible, unless Al Gore played a round at Turnberry since then. Does anyone know if Al plays golf?

[MayBee]

If they actually believe in global warming the should be betting that it will be hotter then the hottest temperature on record for that day.
=========

Genius.

[Rick Ballard]

The "sucker" aspect comes from here. The +0.6°C to +0.9°C 'El Niño' edge is the equivalent of shaved dice.

Anyone interested in the reality of the AGW fraud might want to read this post and comments carefully. Pofarmer's attention to clouds isn't misplaced.

[Original MikeS]

I have been proudly considering myself a climate change skeptic. My pride stemming from the idea that such a person was disdained by liberals. Odds are that that would be a good thing.

Now this Nate Silver guy has come along with this wackadoodle definition of a climate change skeptic as someone who doesn't believe that climate changes. It seems to me that a climate change skeptic is a person who believes that it is 'normal' for the climate to change, and the opposite is a person who believes that any change in climate, whether it is warming or cooling, is a catastrophe.

I'm not really skeptical about the climate at all. I'm skeptical about the hysterical claims of AGW theorists.

I am skeptical of the idea that humans can do much to effect the climate in a big way.

I'm skeptical of the idea that even moderate warming would be a bad thing.

I am skeptical of the idea that the tiny amount of CO2 in our atmosphere "can" reach a tipping point where a little more will cause a catastrophic global heat wave.

[matt]

watch out for your waffles, Jack....the Eurocrats in Bruxelles may steal them right from under your fork....

the mussels are wonderful....

as to the weather, it has been significantly lower than normal in Southern California so far this year. It has just really warmed up in the past week or so....tomato crop has been very so so....

[PeterUK]

The Earth is approximately 4.54 Billion years and the are sampling a couple of decades. Even 1890 is a drop in the ocean.
For the record.Mid Summer here and I'm wearing the same kind of clothes I wore in January.The weather is more like Autumn.
It will be said that is only weather,it has been like this the last three years.How much weather does it take to make a climate.

[Rob Crawford]

Now this Nate Silver guy has come along with this wackadoodle definition of a climate change skeptic as someone who doesn't believe that climate changes.

It's always easiest to beat an argument no one's making.

[sbw]

I thought old men sat on the porch and argued weather.

Why back in my day...

[Original MikeS]

Why back in my day...
Yup.
Or "What do you think of this weather? It's sure different from last year."

[Captain Hate]

Does anyone know if Al plays golf?

Although John Daly is exhibit A that you can be an obese idiot and still hit a golf ball well, at least at times, I'm pretty sure that Al is a full-time obese idiot with no distractions.

[PeterUK]

Is it possible to play golf and count your money at the same time?

[Dave E.]

I live in the Minneapolis area and it most certainly has been cooler than normal. I took a look at Silver's post and it's nonsense. His average high temp data appears to come from the Twin Cities NWS station in Chanhassen, MN. He gets his actual high temp data from a different station at the U of M, in the middle of the city. Apples and oranges enough to make a difference. Is Silver supposed to be a statistics expert or something? The real numbers are that since June 1, 34 days have been below average here and 14 above.

[Dave E.]

oops, correction: 32 days below average.

[centralcal]

matt: it is similar here in the Central Valley. We had an unusually wonderful early summer (temps mostly in the low to mid 90's) until one week ago, when they climbed up to the normal July triple digits. The heat has come late this year and I am really grateful for the extra weeks of nice weather and low PG&E bills.

[Captain Hate]

Northeast Ohio has had the coolest summer I can remember; I don't think it got above 70 this weekend. I've heard that the jetstream is much further south than usual so I still think it's been hot in the South and Southwest.

[Gmax]

So Nate wants to bet. Unfortunately I have to evaluate conterparty risk for a living. If the snake loses, I think the likelyhood of him paying off is about the same as the old guy in the "shankapodomus" commercial. He will claim the ball was moved or some other technicality. It aint worth betting with a liberal, they want to play but with your money, only.

[Ms. Trish]

Southwest Ohio is unusually cool this weekend too, with highs only in the low 70's. I'm not complaining!

[daddy]

test

[RichatUF]

I'm not really understanding his bet. Fargo, ND looks to be about 5 degrees below normal for the next 5 days though.

[daddy]

Well whether Global Warming is real or not, and whether or not humans are responsible, the good thing is that Hillary Clinton just apologized to the Hindu's for America having done it.

Dateline: The Garden spot of India, Bombay (Mumbai):

"U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton opened a three-day visit to India on Saturday by urging India not to repeat American mistakes in contributing to global pollution, and she passionately defended U.S. demands for help in fighting terrorism.

"We acknowledge now with President Obama that we have made mistakes in the United States, and we along with other developed countries have contributed most significantly to the problem that we face with climate change," she said. "We are hoping a great country like India will not make the same mistakes."
She was referring to Obama's statement in Italy earlier this month that the U.S. had "sometimes fallen short" of its responsibilities in controlling its carbon emissions."

In expressing the guilt of America, there is no word on whether Hillary drank the tap-water, had her meals cooked over cow dung, nor whether she used natural or synthetic insecticides to keep away the bubonic plague transmitting fleas hosting in the rancid carcasses of the millions of rats outside her hotel.

Namaste'

[Mark O]

There is only one thing going for Hillary: she becomes physically ill in the presence of BHO.

[RichatUF]

And doesn't it take a swarmy liberal to take an anecdotal observation from someone else and turn it into some sort of challenge. Hell if I were breaking out an autumn jacket in the midddle of July, I might mention it (though since I'm in Florida it might also be a sign of the apocalypse). I'm going to remember the stats genuis Nate when some dickhead starts yammering on TV about how the next hurricane to hit Florida is the cause of "global warming" "climate change".

[Rick Ballard]

Rich,

Good pick on Fargo. The dice are still shaved though.

[PeterUK]

Hilary Clinton - Barrack Hussein Obama - both lawyers.
Isn't there anyone amongst these prats with a science degree?

daddy,
Rats,Hilary is used to those.

[John Carter, Barsoom]

TM,

I am afraid to report that Nate Silver is correct and he wins the bet.

I live on the South Pole of Mars, and as any fool can plainly see from these ">http://www.heartland.org/policybot/results/17977/Mars_Is_Warming_NASA_Scientists_Report.html"> NASA Science Reports, our Polar Ice Cap is melting and has been doing so for some time now.

Fortunately though, on Mars we use Animal Shit for money. So if you will kindly post Mr Silver's address I will happily deliver him the biggest load of HorseShit I can find on your planet. I considered BullShit, but he obviously has more than enough of that already on hand.

[PeterUK]

OH,for goodness sake Carter,they can't tax solar energy. It has to be carbon.

[mockmook]

I wonder what the distribution of above average and below average days is?

It may be the norm that 20 days per month are above average and 10 days are below--but when you add the temps up, the belows are "deeper", so they still cancel out the aboves.

Pofarmer, I don't think 10yrs of data means anything. As others have remarked, what are the time scales to determine climate? Regardless, we know the Earth's climate is constantly changing (over long time spans).

[PeterUK]

Not only has the Earth's climate changed over millions of years land masses hve sunk,risen or moved thousands of miles.Britain used to be near Brazil.
We are entering a new Dark Age of ignorance and hysteria,witness the Swine Flu panic.

BTW SCAM is marketing amulets which ward off the ill effects of carbon.
Also you can adopt a polar bear for $50 a month.

[Anthony's site explores thermometers.]

Yeah, Rich, Accumulated Cyclone Energy or ACE is at low for the last 30 years. This totals all the energy in hurricanes and cyclones worldwide. It's because the oceans are cooling. Note that the sea level rise is halting, too.

Next most useful word over there after namaste is pinnakapawnee.

The Chinese and the Indians intend to use our past carbon use, and putatively the cause of all this warming, to exact concessions, read loot, from the developed nations. It's all from a precious conceit of a Western elite, it's all completely fraudulent and it all can't last much longer into the cooling ahead.

[matt]

most liberals use the anecdotal, Rich....it's the only way they can usually argue these days.

PUK, wasn't an incredibly hot and dry summer predicted in the papers and by the Met office over there? I seem to remember something in the telegraph a month or two back.

Now to my final point for now, anyway....The NYT has an article saying that the governors are starting to rise up against Ogabe's health fiasco. The states are paying 40% of medicare now and are very wary of taking on any additional obligations. This may be Ogabe's Waterloo. He has his minions out spreading his gospel, but people are waking up from what I am reading.

The military lawsuit regarding his citizenship is another angle, and even Politico is starting to report he's not taking the resistance very well.

An article on our relationships with other countries was interesting. The author reports that everyone is now giving us another chance, but the reality is that apparently Der Spiegel reported that Ogabe's staffers treated the German officials like errand boys when he was in Dresden and Buchenwald, and his other notable slights have been well reported. Common sense tells me that he is not going to be very well received in the near future. If the computer story is true in Honduras, that is going to blow up in his face like like a cheap sqib in a nickel cigar.

Not that I want our country to be disgraced, but this guy's agenda has to be stopped and reversed for the good of the country.

[RichatUF]

daddy-

She really said this: She was referring to Obama's statement in Italy earlier this month that the U.S. had "sometimes fallen short" of its responsibilities in controlling its carbon emissions."

Curiously the US had a drop for a few years and minor growth in 2007 and is doing better than Europe in reducing co2 emissions (and we should be doing really well now since we are in the middle of a recession and auto traffic started dropping in the middle of 2007). I suppose the Obama Marxists won't be happy until we are eating grass and using fire for heating and lighting.

Rick-

I'm still not getting it-loaded dice or not. The PW guys made an offhanded blogpost about where they live (echoing the local paper) sandwiched between a music post and one about Iran. Some swarmy jackass wants to build up some mathematical tailsmans to prove-what? Sioux Falls, SD also seems to be running almost 8 degrees below normal.

[PeterUK]

Matt,
"PUK, wasn't an incredibly hot and dry summer predicted in the papers and by the Met office over there? I seem to remember something in the telegraph a month or two back."

Of course.WE were all going to die of sunstroke.The government has just bought them a new super computer.It would be ungrateful of them not to support Government and EU policy.
Odd isn't it,that the government isn't stockpiling sun blocker and mosquito nets?

[PeterUK]

" I suppose the Obama Marxists won't be happy until we are eating grass and using fire for heating and lighting."

Sorry,grass = methane,fire = carbon.

You'll just have to sun dry your Granny and eat her.

[larry]

Pofarmer-the theories about clouds regulating our climate probably ring quite true. Clouds reflect heat during the day, and tend to hold it in at night.
Po, that's the very definition of greenhouse effect.
Muir hits it outa da park. LUN

[RichatUF]

...that the government isn't stockpiling sun blocker and mosquito nets?

No prayer rugs?

[Rick Ballard]

Mr Uk,

Shhh - you know that our SunGran VitaSnax won't roll out until next March. Don't give the competition any ideas.

Rich,

Hit whoring? Nate's "fame" is fading a bit.

[RichatUF]

And damn, no grass for food and no fire for heat and lighting. How will I be able to read the Dear Leader's Audacity of Hope and Dreams from Bill Ayers my sperm donor?

[Pops]

Hasn't this guy gotten the word that the party line now is 'CLIMATE CHANGE', not 'GLOBAL WARMING'.

I CAN USUALLY TELL HOW HOT IT IS BY HOW MANY 220 OUTLETS AL GORE IS USING ON HIS HOUSEBOAT.

http://pajamasmedia.com/files/2008/08/bs-one_2.jpg

AND HOW HOT DO YOU THINK IT GETS IN AL'S OFFICE WITH ALL THOSE SCREENS BLARING:

http://www.blogcdn.com/www.engadgetmobile.com/media/2007/05/al-gore-desk.jpg

[RichatUF]

Rick-

Hit whoring?

Didn't think about that. I think I might get a cup of coffee and kick back and listen to the thunder. Since storms have been happening later in the day than normal in this part of Florida, it must be the result of global warming climate change.

[PeterUK]

RichatUF.

Don't be so defeatist. Have faith.You know the parable of the Loaves and the Fishes. Obama will turn water into arugula.

[PeterUK]

Did you know that arugula,as well as making tasty dishes like Arugula Surprise,can also be woven into clourful native costumes?

[AJ Lynch]

You know every month when I get my electric bill from PECO, it provides me with the average temp for that month, the previous month and for the same month in the previous year.

PECO is a humongous company and is owned by the big electric company from Chicago (I think it is named Exelon).

Would Silver make a bet with me for $100 per month? If the temp was 1 degree cooler than previous year, Silver would pay me $100. If it was 1 degree warmer, I would pay Silver $100.

I would be happy make that bet with Silver.

[I Won]

"Note that the sea level rise is halting, too."

As I promised.

[A.C. McCloud]

It may be the norm that 20 days per month are above average and 10 days are below--but when you add the temps up, the belows are "deeper", so they still cancel out the aboves.

Exactly. That's why his challenge has the potential to be entirely meaningless (aside from collecting a bunch of personal info on righty commenters and more web hits)-- it contains no points for variance. My hometown is currently 1.2 degrees below normal for July but in the contest he'd only owe me 25 bucks, and none if he accounted for daily lows in the same manner.

The global temp records are daily averages of highs and lows, not just one or the other. Using his setup Silver could actually win a month where the temp came out below normal. Selective? Yep.

[PaulL]

The book, which is sure to infuriate people who remember Cronkite as the conscience of a generation, describes him as demanding and abusive with a temper so bad he once threw a phone against a wall. RadarOnline.com has learned the author will try to balance the portrait by saying Cronkite had a fun-loving side that included often pretending to do a strip-tease for guests.

I feel fortunate never to have been one of Uncle Walter's guests.

[Captain Hate]

which is sure to infuriate people who remember Cronkite as the conscience of a generation

What a bunch of frikkin' idiots. Conscience of what generation? Hope Wally's having a good time doing s strip-tease along with Pol Pot in liquid fire for the amusement of Satan.

[matt]

when he was a reporter at CBS during the war he was fine. My mother took his stories over the phones a number of times and worked for him when he was in from the field. He was a reporter, nothing more or less. On TV he was a father figure. As McLuhan said, the medium is the message.

[matt]

OT, but Frank Rich's column on the Sotomayor hearings was one of the most dishonest, nasty pieces of work the old queen has done in years.

[narciso]

That's a relly tough distinction, about Frank Rich, Matt, but I'll take your word
for it. BTW, according to Ron Paul, we're all in the country club, I thought I had forgotten my dues fees (sarc)

[AJ Lynch]

I meant to add this to my comment above. If Silver wants to bet me, I'd be happy to base the bet on the average temp on my electric bill each month.

That would make it nice & simple & easy reasonable & clear to figure out who won the bet each month.

Of course, I don't believe Silver truly wanted a simple bet.

[Ignatz]

Since the cimate is probably still, on a long time scale, rebounding from the bottom of the Little Ice Age, over the long run he is probably going to come out ahead because of the nonsensical nature of his bet.
There are few scientists who doubt that the earth is some small amount warmer now than 100 years ago. The questions of course are, why and will it continue?
In light of this, since it's aimed at "skeptics" who are after all skeptical about man's contribution to climate change not its existence and the burden of proof is on the "alarmists", a much fairer and better constructed bet would be that Mr. Silver pay $25 to any counterparty each day that the temperature is either above, below or exactly average and he is unable to provide scientific proof that this is primarily because of anthropogenic production of so called greenhouse gases rather than natural phenomena.
Let him risk his money in support of his theory about why something is occurring not whether it is.
The beauty of being a skeptic of course is that one doesn't carry a burden of proof, so that in the unlikely event at some future date Mr. Silver proves his theory, the skeptic need only return Mr. Silver's money that he has been collecting all along (pocketing the interest of course) to pay him off.

[Jim Miller]

I can't quite figure out Silver's bet, and am not motivated enough to study it closely.

But someone might want to offer him a bet on this: Has the snowfall gone up at Mt. Rainier since early in the 20th century or down? (Global warming high priests generally say that snowfall is decreasing in the Cascades.)

(But don't tell Nate about this post before you make that bet. Oh, and if you haven't seen them, don't miss those snow pictures from last year at the link.)

[Ann]

Here's Another Sucker Bet

The latest Sarah Palin Lie is that her hair is thinning because she can't take the stress:

Latest State-Run Media Lie: Sarah Palin's Hair Is Thinning

[Ann]

Here is the bet:

For each day that Sara's hair thins , you owe me $25. For each day Michelle's thighs thin , I owe you $25.

Picture taken today. (And you know I am being nice)
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

[Porchlight]

Wow, great pic of Sarah.

Somebody please rescue Michelle from her hairstylist.

[RichatUF]

Ann, I think I'll stay away from that bet.

We haven't gotten any stories about the fashionista, is the state run media falling asleep on the job?

Jim M., haven't heard you in these parts for a while. Hope all is well. In re: your Philip Verleger post. Kudlow had him on a few days back laying out his case for $20/bbl. I wouldn't go to that extreme, but here is a write up if your interested, with the Kudlow link at the bottom. Overall I am unfamiliar with his work, but he appears to have made a name for himself in the run up as well.

[RichatUF]

your interested->you're interested

Sorry.

[narciso]

And her fashion consultant, seriously it makes me feel a little sorry for her, they don't do her any favors, with this'Empress's
new clothes' routine. That being said:

[RichatUF]

General Obama is leading the charge of the pill brigade for Kill Granny Obamacare. link.

Seems like he is making the same mistake that Hillary! made in selling Hillarycare-become strident, cut out congress, demonize the healthcare and health insurance industries, and go on the road to selected audiences in a campaign pitch (when real grassroots opposition is forming). Is this going to be his cardigan moment?

[verner]

As reported on Drudge, India has said no thanks to Hillary over the global warming grifter scheme.

And they should be producing around 100,000 of those new super mini $2,000 cars in the next few months. Just imagine when there are millions of those little buggers on the roads. I'd say four of them equal one SUV.

Now think about it. Look at the map of India. Positively surrounded by water. If ocean levels rise, they get flooded big time, not to mention it's already 120 in Delhi for a good part of the year.

So if their scientists were telling the government that this global warming stuff was real, don't you think they would be addressing the problem? Ditto China.

If global warming is real, China and India will suffer the most. They could both lose hundreds of millions of people through starvation and disease. So why aren't they doing anything about it? Why can't they create "green" jobs like Obama?

By the way, it's set to get down to the mid fifties here tonight.

I hope Al Gore chokes on his five hundred million. Satan awaits his fat butt for telling lies, stealing money from people with guilty consciences by selling them "carbon credits" and scaring gullible liberals half to death.

[Pofarmer]

Pofarmer, I don't think 10yrs of data means anything. As others have remarked, what are the time scales to determine climate? Regardless, we know the Earth's climate is constantly changing (over long time spans).

Oh, I agree, however, the University of MO has data going back to the 1860's. It was actually the head Meteorologist at MU that got me on the skeptic path. When they look at there own data, they just don't see it.

[Pofarmer]

Uhhhhmmmmm.

Holy Carp.

As anticipated by LEAP/E2020 as early as October 2008, on the eve of summer 2009, the question of the US and UK capacity to finance their unbridled public deficits has become the central question of international debates, thus paving the way for these two countries to default on their debt by the end of this summer.

Read all about it at LUN.

[narciso]

So apparently the brave 'dissident' agent Ali Soufan, who I still had respect for because of the "Looming Tower" and his work
at Guiliani and Associates, didn't quite tell the truth again, according to this latest account by the Post, however it too relies on anonymous sources, possibly the next thread huh, Tom

[RichatUF]

Pofarmer-

Interesting perspective from France. It's French, so I'll find a reason to complain.

I am doubtful of a soverign US default (a T-bill isn't a loan that can be called by the holder)-though a few states and cities could default. I'm doubtful of a British default as well, but the point of political instability and economic instability is a good one. Those 2 usually mean a national security crisis is on the horizon and Iran making noises of "Death to Britian" can't be good.

I think the GDP growth to debt growth (that looks to be all consumer debt) is misleading. It shows the scope of the problem, but all that money isn't due tomorrow, and even with private employment weakness, not all of the debt is bad. It is also worth pointing out that the Eurozone banks are in worse shape than the US, with Germany in particularly bad shape.

The Euros have done what they usually do, free ride on the US, then sneer and posture about their superiority. Even Porsche is in financial trouble, after the NA market has went into a deep freeze and the odd VW short squeeze.

::fingers crossed::

[Ignatz]

--Even Porsche is in financial trouble, after the NA market has went into a deep freeze and the odd VW short squeeze.--

Heh. Could it really have been less than a year ago they were talking about buying VW?
Those two companies and their ownership/management incest read like some backwoods, sister-humping, Arkansas cornfeds.

[RichatUF]

narciso-

I'm never going to feel sorry for Abu Zubaida (a Saudi-born Palestanian?). I find it hard to believe he wasn't "a member of al-Qeada" although he was connected to KSM and North African terrorist groups.

Interesting article and I see that they didn't mention the Library Tower plot.

[RichatUF]

Ignatz-

This was what started it all.

graf-

"This is probably the biggest short squeeze in history," said Mr Warburton, referring to when hedge funds have to cover their positions. He added it could cause further losses as owners of the shares who lent them to hedge funds can name their price: "It is a short squeeze to infinity."

Shares in VW - Germany's largest company by market capitalisation even before the rise - as much as tripled before closing up €309.15 at €520, giving it a market capitalisation of €153bn - more than all the other US and European carmakers put together.

[RichatUF]

Ooops, all I needed to do was read the TheCorner for an unpacking of the WaPo article on Z.

[matt]

the shoe drops when the creditors stop buying debt because they do not have the faith it will be repaid in equal value dollars. Defaulting on old debt will probably not happen for a while. The country still has some cash flow. This may be the golden opportunity to fix us. Or not....

But if we're seen to be running the presses 24/7 and devaluing our currency, well, that's it. We're Zimbabwe or Weimar and anything imported, including oil will be out of reach. Then it will be drill or die, and half the power sector and the auto industry will go off line because we can't afford the oil any more. International transactions will be cash on the barrelhead in SF, RMB, Yen or gold. I think the UK and their own greed and poor judgment will take a lot of Europe down.

Well, it will be one way to stimulate the manufacturing sector except we hardly make machine tools or precision anything except weaponry now. We blow things up better'n anyone. A Suburban will cost the average Japanese about 7,000 Yen and the Chinese can buy up more of our resources and infrastructure before their economy collapses because we're the ones buying all their stuff.

The A-rabs will of course collapse as they sell us the oil and we won't need or be able to afford very much. And we won't have Hugo to worry about anymore because Venezuela will have no customers for their ever more expensive to pump state run oil at 500 Yen/barrel and he'll get overthrown for being the knucklehead he is (and the fact he's trying to nationalize Polar, one of my favorite beers), so there is some upside to all of this.

Dogs & cats living together.....

of course I could be wrong.....

[narciso]

No, Zubeydah I have no sympathy for, the 'not a member of AQ" is kind of a dodge, one sees that the No. 3, position has a great deal of turnover, Anas Al Libi, one a member of the Libyan Fighting Group, the other Gamaa Islamiya, one recalls Mossaoui, was probably GSC, but was also tied to the Chechens. frankly I think they weren't tough enough on him,it's because of the efforts of Mitchell,Jessen, and the real "Jack Bauer" Keith Martinez, that the Library Tower, instead of being the iconic landmark in every TV show and movie you can think of, did not become a tomb. But the fact that the Post was willing for him to be portrayed as a victim, and Soufan went along with it, Well it's off a piece with some of the other media outrages. At a certain point, they are no longer
credentialed morons, as Rick would posit, but more like 'sin verguenzas' shameless liars'.

[daddy]

Uh Oh, You guy's seen ">http://www.irishastronomy.org/cms/forum?func=view&catid=2&id=79644"> this? Something seems to have penetrated the atmosphere of Jupiter.

And didn't we just get a letter this morning from some irresponsible Martian whining about how he and his thoat buddies and Tars Tarkus etc, had doofed up their homes on Mars with their carbon footprints?

Well I don't Grok, but let me tell you a thing or 2 John Carter. Do whatever the heck you want with Jupiter, but if you ever invade and conquer Earth, you better not raise the temperature or you are gonna' have to apologize to a whole lot of Hindu's before you eat 'em.

And keep you're stinking tentacles off Europa!

[narciso]

No, Matt, "mass hysteria" and "human sacrifice" right before the coming of Gozer, seems to be a good defaulr

[daddy]

Gozer the Gozarian... John Carter of Barsoom...I love the political discussions at this place.

Narciso,

Good stuff on Ali Soufan, and Rich's Corner Link unraveled it nicely.
And Sarah's PO'd Hair Dresser Twitter stuff is worth reading. Boy, do they hate her at the NYTimes.

Melinda,

Tesla it is. Sorry took so long to respond. Will take a couple months but I'll get around to it. Thanks for the tip. Its tough to read when its so gorgeous outside.

[AL]

Verner:

The reason China and India will not do squat about GW (even if it will be super-severe) is quite simple.

First, ocean rise is extremely slow process. Second, climate at tropical locations is thermo-stabilized by evaporation of ocean water, and was exactly the same over eons of hot and cold (Ice Ages) events: hot and humid, all the time.

In essence, cold and hot Earth is determined by extent of subtropics and Ice shields over temperate climatic zones. Poles always were cold, and tropics always were hot and humid.

[PeterUK]

The other reason China and India won't do anything is that it is a nice little earner.Liberal guilt brings them billions.

[PeterUK]

Isn't it the point that the warmers don't actually care about the planet,but are more concerned about their own extinction?
The Earth will keep rotating unconcernedly long after something has bumped us off.

[Pofarmer]

The NY times is notching lower and lower beneath the National Enquirer as a news source.

[Captain Hate]

Hey Po, does the cool summer we've had set your crop timetable back? I'm guessing the answer is "yes" but just asking....

[hit and run]

Rick:
Hit whoring?

Hey! I may not be proud of my current line of work, but neither will I apologize for it.

[Pofarmer]

Well, it's hard to tell how much is setback by the cool weather, and how much is setback due to the fact we didn't get done planting crops until July, 4th. I'm baling hay now that should have been baled a month and a half ago, and the quality isn't actually all that bad. We are definately behind on GDU's, and the last week of lows in the 50's, has really slowed down the corn that started to tassel 10 days ago. Normally it'll shoot a tassel in about 4 days, it's still not really fully exerted now. Everything is just different. No two years are the same. We got into a pattern where you had to have corn planted in April to beat the heat in July and August. So far, July hasn't been much of a problem, although a good rain this week would be welcomed. The weather the rest of July and August will really determine how things go. There are guys in Canada that are REALLY hurting. If you are interested, you can go Newagtalk.com, and search around in the crop talk section and there have been several guys talking about late frosts in Canada, and now worried about early frosts knocking the wheat.

[matt]

Wapo Poll: Obama approval below 50%....

[GMax]

OH DOT

only +1 today overall. He is dropping like a rock! It may save us from the idiocy of public option health care and other budget busting nonsense which I am thankful to the muddle for waking up from a rip van winkle coma just in time.

[Ranger]

Hmmmm... Team Barry is http://apnews.myway.com/article/20090720/D99I4A0G0.html>holding out on budget updates due out this month.

The release of the update - usually scheduled for mid-July - has been put off until the middle of next month, giving rise to speculation the White House is delaying the bad news at least until Congress leaves town on its August 7 summer recess.

So much for the "most transparent administration ever."

Republicans need to start demanding no vote on health care until they see the actual budget numbers.

[clarice]

Ras has him tied with Romney for 2012 and only a few points above Sarah.

[cathyf]

Po, the corn around here looks really sad. We are used to seeing 225-250 bushels/acre the last coupla years, and that's obviously not happening. Lots of bare spots, some of which still have standing water, lots more of that short yellow stuff where it was too wet.

I took WonderGirl to camp yesterday, and Iowa certainly looks better, but the trip up and down 74 when we were on vacation at the beginning of the month was pretty sad looking. Usually we would see about 1/2 the corn tasseled by end of June, and we didn't see any at all, and whole fields were just 1-3 feet tall.

[fdcol63]

We can only hope that O's tanking approval ratings are an indication that people are finally waking and recognizing the dangers, and that perhaps, just perhaps, there is yet hope for America.

[fdcol63]

" ... Republicans need to start demanding no vote on health care until they see the actual budget numbers. .."

Or get some assurance that Congressional leaders have at least read the legislation that they're voting on.

[Sue]

On How the Earth Was Made last week, the Swiss Alps were the topic. Especially how AGW are ruining them. The snow is melting. And in the middle of this we learn how Hannibal crossed the Alps to defeat the Roman army. With elephants. The explanation, thrown out to put a little truth in their story, the Alps have not always been covered in snow. Hannibal apparently was able to slip over a mountain that was moderately warm. But back to AGW.

[Rick Ballard]

Ranger,

Thanks for the link. I especially liked this:

"Instead of a dream, this routine report could be a nightmare," Tony Fratto, a former Treasury Department official and White House spokesman under President George W. Bush, said of the delayed budget update. "There are some things that can't be escaped."

What will the Regime do to Elmendorf? Claim senility? Tool of corporate interests? Enemy of the people?

Our buck naked, dumb as a post, Emperor of the Dolts should have stuck with CAC. He's bright enough to get away with stealing from children and helping slumlords rape their tenants but that's about the limit.

[Pagar]

recognizing the dangers, and that perhaps, just perhaps, there is yet hope for America.

I don't see any sign of that, when we are planning to provide:

Obamacare Will Cover 12 Million Illegal Aliens

[narciso]

Seeing some of the previous figures about payrolls, tax take, et al; hard to imagine
anything less than is 'the horror, the horror'. You can throw in some Jim Morrison,
for thatThat being said, what is to be done for the next year and a half, not to
mention, the next two; with this crew.

[DebinNC]

Considering it's AP, Ranger's link was even-handed. My favorite was:

"Late last week, Obama vowed anew that "health insurance reform cannot add to our deficit over the next decade and I mean it."

Adding "and I mean it" is something only someone who knows he's now perceived as a liar has to do.

[DebinNC]

Oh, and I just noticed BO's now calling Kill Granny "health insurance reform", which seems to be a recent switcheroo. Has he always called it that?

[fdcol63]

Good catch, DebinNC!

[Porchlight]

AP: White House putting off budget update

Keeping the multitudinous green shoots under cover of night until Obamacare gets passed, no doubt.