Black Is This Season's Baseline

Send in the white clowns!  Last week the LA Times breathlessly reported that Obama's support was plunging among white voters.  Nate Silver noted that since his support was also falling among non-white voters, maybe it was sub-optimal (or even nonsensical) to view these polls through a racial prism.

But maybe it's an LA thing - today, Joan Walsh of Salon misreads some polling data and sounds the alarm about the "blackening" of Obama:

Obama steadily lost support among white voters during this long, hot summer of hate, with his white approval rating dropping by almost one-third, from 63 percent to 43 percent between Memorial Day and Labor Day.

Hmm - the data is heavily excerpted in this accompanying Salon piece, or you can download it yourself.  The "63 percent" reported by Ms. Walsh seems to have been taken from Obama's overall support for the week ending May 31; his support among whites at the end of that week was 56 percent.  The 43 percent figure was from the week before Labor Day, but we will stay with that; the next week's figure for white approval was 45 percent.  The 13 point drop is almost one-fourth, not almost one-third.

Still, that is a precipitous drop from 56 percent to 43 percent, yes?  Well, compared to what?  Among Hispanics, Obama's support fell from 79 to 68 percent in the same time period, an 11 point drop (but only one seventh!).  The 13 percent drop among whites was only notable relative to Obama's black support, which moved from 90 percent at the end of May to 86 percent at the end of August (and rebounded to 91 percent a week later; given the noisiness of that series, I would hold off on any grand sociological theories for a bit.)

Ms. Walsh presents all sorts of reasons why eveil Republicans have now driven whites away from the guy uncritically accepted by blacks (but not Hispanics!):

The racially tinged debates over Obama's appointing the first Latina to the Supreme Court and his politically unwise foray into the Henry Louis Gates flap, combined with organized GOP opposition, seem to have done what Obama's political foes could never manage in 2008: They've blackened Obama, in both senses of the word -- simultaneously diminishing his support and emphasizing his ethnicity.

Birthers, Deathers, gun nuts - all get mentioned as part of the awful summer of our discontent.  But then again:

...Ever the optimist, I'd even argue that racism is probably not the main cause. For one thing, the surge in white approval around Inauguration Day was lovely, but predictably ephemeral; it reflected people's pride in the country's having elected a black president more than their belief in him. (His current 43 percent white approval rating could be cited as proof that Obama has simply come back down to earth after more than seven months in office, since that's the exact share of white support he got on Election Day.)

And while I think race, and racism, have played a role in the angry yelling of the Birthers and Deathers, and in the despicable contempt Wilson showed the president in Congress last week, I think most of the president's troubles with white voters have to do with political doubt his enemies have sown about his programs -- after Obama, in my opinion, was too slow to push his own clear proposals, especially for healthcare.

Ms. Walsh is delusional with this:

Finally, when Republicans began objecting to Obama's speaking to schoolkids last week, you couldn't ignore the racism: Listening to some parents' expressing actual fear of having Obama beamed into their kids' classrooms, it was hard to imagine such hysteria being inspired by a white president. It would never happen.

Is Ms. Walsh kidding or has she forgotten everything prior to Florida 2000?  I am trying to imagine the reaction from the right if Bill "I never had sex with that woman" Clinton had announced plans to undress address our nation's kids in 1999.  I am getting vague images of unrest.

My constructive suggestion to Ms. Walsh - re-read the data, get the numbers right, explain the Hispanic panic, and come back with a real column.

CHERRY-PICKING:  From Ms. Walsh: 

But even I was surprised at the extent and the precise timing of the drop in Obama's white support when I took the time to look closely at Gallup's weekly tracking polls recently. Here's what I saw: Between January and the end of May, Obama's white support went up and down a point or two, but stayed close to the 60 percent mark. The week that ended May 10, Obama had a 60 percent approval rating.

Hmmh - I was going to cite the Salon data excerpts, but where they should have May 10 they repeat the May 3 data; a whit of communication and coordination would have been helpful.  As to "stayed close to 60", well, his approval rating was above 60 percent for Inauguration week and the week after; beyond that, every number prior to the May 10 figure ranges between 54 and 59.

Let's try for something like a table of Obama's approval rating amongst whites:

Week ending:

Mar 15        55 percent

Apr 12        54

May 10       60

Jun 14        54

Jul 12        51

Aug 16        46

Aug 31        43

Sep 6        45

Comments

[bishop]

You do yeoman work, Tom, venturing in the sewer there, do you wear a decontamination
suit, it's bad enough when she pops on MSNBC

[Jack is Back!]

Walter Williams and Tom Sowell could not be reached for comment. But Maureen Dowd now has statistical evidence that her juvenile hypothesis was correct. The delusions of the left need psycho-analysis as much as any of Freud's patients.

[bishop]

I think the illustration on Jodi Cantor's
article into his lecturing days at U.
Chicago, with him teaching Alinskyite diagrams of power relationship and not law, would have been the tipoff for me,

[Original MikeS]

Skippy Gates claims all Caucasians were exposed as racists when they allowed the police to go to his house and investigate the 2nd break in at that address.

Rev. Wright exposed all Caucasians as greedy racists when he said those were our reasons for objecting to ObamaCare.

Van Jones exposed all Caucasians as racists who conspired to allow 911 and to divert poisonous pollution into black neighborhoods.

The press claims racism was the reason we couldn't abide our first black president giving false testimony in a court of law.

Some people claim that, despite the very fine job Jimmy Carter was doing as President, he was voted out of office when Caucasians found out his ancestors were from Africa.

Now it turns out that Obama is losing Caucasian support because Obama has been on TV so much that 'the greedy white bastards' are figuring out the he is black.

[Fresh Air]

Maybe Zero should go see Michael Jackson's dermatologist.

[Fresh Air]

Actually, all these apologias from the usual leftwing dopes reminds me of the old feminist joke. For the punchline, instead of, "That's not funny!" just insert "Racist!"

[Jim O]

Two reactions:
(1) Fisking these Salon thumbsuckers is a fish/barrel exercise. I know ya gotta feed the blogging beast, so I forgive you, but...
(2) My favorite sign from the D.C. rally said something like "No matter what this sign says, you'll call it racist."

[Charlie (Colorado)]

So I'm guessing that the massive objections and Congressional investigations into George HW Bush's address to school kids were because he's black?

[Jack is Back!]

I can understand the POTUS making an address on Memorial Day, The 4th, Veteran's Day and even 9/11 but what is with "remembering" the fall of Lehman Brothers? How about doing it on Bernie Madoff's birthday? Or better yet, why not do an Air Force One flyover of Wall St. Oh, you mean that would be too scary. Well, the fact that Geithner and Roemer are still there is really scary.

[bishop]

Ditto, Jack, but that gave him his second wind, along with the McCain campaign's virtual collapse, with one notable exception

[Original MikeS]

He's black? I thought he was from one of those island races. He looks just like those heads on Easter Island.

[matt]

The funny thing is, I always thought he is half white.

[Fresh Air]

So I'm guessing that the massive objections and Congressional investigations into George HW Bush's address to school kids were because he's black?

An actual descendant of slaves.

[steve sturm]

Okay, Obama's drop in support is because of racism. So... are the people who supported Obama just a few months ago but now oppose him racist? Did they just turn racist? If so, which is the chicken and which is the egg? Did the opposition to Obama's policies lead to people turning racist or did their racism lead to opposing Obama? Or were these opponents always racist but just a few months ago willing to overlook Obama being black? Or perhaps these racists just learned he was black and decided they had to oppose him even though they liked what he was doing?

This reminds me of the politicians lament that the voters who were smart enough to elect them to office are not smart enough to listen to.

[daddy]

In case you were wondering...BBC, CNN INternational and CNBC all just carried the President's speech live on their broadcasts in China. The speech is now being followed by round table commentary type stuff on all 3 channels. Thank goodness for Larry Kudlow.

Anyhow, the point is that the decision to not broadcast the Tea Party Protest is a conscious one. If they can live broadcast the speech they can live broadcast Protestors, so the decision to censor the Protestors is not a structural fault with the broadcast equipment or time etc, but is instead a willful decision.

[bgates]

Did they just turn racist?

It would be hard to find a better justification for white racism than the Obama administration, and the unquestioning support this parade of thieves, hacks, and race warriors gets from black Americans.

[John Oh]

Why is there no concern that the lack of change in support among African Americans is based on race rather than performance? 90 to 86 to 91. Is there monolithic support in this community to the entire Obama agenda? Or is this a reflection of racial preference and racial preference alone? All of these analyses are based on the assumption that this level of support is ok, and its the rest of the sample that's biased.

[SWarren]

Did anyone see this?
Bill Maher Pulls a Don Imus. LUN

Where's the outrage from the left?
I think Maher is a POS and didn't actually watch this, but I had to laugh at the title "Hoes in the garden".

[fdcol63]

I'm hoping for change in 2010.

[sylvia]

Well don't forget, Obama won with only 42% of the white vote to begin with. I'm assuming that is the first time in US history that has happened. He won because he got practically all of the black vote and a high number of Hispanics, even Jewish votes.

I was a little suspicious after the election and made myself up a crude chart of the swing states of the black population per state, and giving Obama 100% of the black vote and a high Latino vote and seeing if 100% of the black vote in those states was enough to win the whole state, and according to my chart, apparently it was. It's like getting one F in a class, it skews the whole thing. Also the growing Hispanic presence made a good difference.

So Obama won, but with the powers that be in the US, still the whites, he didn't win. So eventually it makes sense we'd see some cracks in support.

[Thomas Collins]

Black? Baseline? Aha! This is really a thread on Serena Williams' disqualification for threatening a line judge (see LUN).

It's too bad so much attention has been paid to Ms. Williams' "going John McEnroe" on the line judge. Kim Clijsters was about to dispatch Ms. Williams in any event (Clijsters had Williams at double match point when Williams was disqualified). I'm glad Clijsters went on to win the championship. This was her Open, not Williams' Open.

How's that for jusfifyting an OT?? :-))

[Thomas Collins]

Make that "justifying."

[Charlie (Colorado)]

PJM sizing piece is up

[MayBee]

Don't blame LA for Joan Walsh. She's in San Francisco.

[maryrose]

Joan Walsh is a partisan hack- nothing she says matters. She'a a regular on Hardball to trash Sarah Palin and I expect she'll be on today to say how all republicans are racists. She is very pro-abortion .

[Ratskeller]

I get Salon delivered on line each morning because I like to be able to see the full range of political commentary out there. Lately, Joan has been moving into Rachael Maddow territory. Especially with respect to Obama losing the Independents (according to polls) the lefty narrative is just plain nuts. Independents were certainly not racists, and proved it, when they voted for BO-- but now they have suddenly and mysteriously BECOME racists overnight because these same people have lost confidence in his policies and his ability to govern?

[E. Nigma]

All white people can't be trusted. I know there are some days I don't trust my wife, that's for sure. Their default position is always race, and racism. No matter what they say and how they vote, they are all ultimately racist. I sure that's what Van Jones and Rev. Wright think. And they should know, because they're authentic.

Believe me on this, I'm white and I know where of I speak. I looked in the hall closet the other day, and sure enough, white sheets were there. How did I subconsciously join the Klan? I'm white, of course.
Joan Walsh is just pointing out the obvious. It's only a matter of time until she turns on Obama; she's white too. Just watch.

[Ignatz]

--Independents were certainly not racists, and proved it, when they voted for BO--

Flawed premise IMO.
It's possible and quite common for one urge to overwhelm another.
There are plenty of lefties who are quite racist and voted for Barry because their politics trump their racism.
I'm willing to bet there are plenty of independents whose racism was trumped by their perceived self interest, guilt at being a closet racist or any number of other things.

I'd say the most sound premise is, all people proved when they voted for Barry is they are stupid.

[He lies.]

Ratz and Ignatz both right. I objected after the Philadelphia speech because I perceived that Obama was aiming the white guilt flamethrower, but that it would only crisp academia, the press, and the coastal elites. The mass of America has long learned King's lesson about content of character. Obama is just now revealing his character. Folks, this isn't about racism, or even about competence; it is about the character of our Dear Leader.
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