Iran Back In The Nuclear Game

I am baffled by the report that Iran has disclosed a new covert facility designed to enrich uranium, as described in the Times.  US officials now claim we have been aware of this plant for years:

American officials said that they had been tracking the covert project for years, but that Mr. Obama decided to disclose the American findings after Iran discovered, in recent weeks, that Western intelligence agencies had breached the secrecy surrounding the complex.

But back in Dec 2007 a National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's intentions announced, to much commotion, that Iran had dropped its nuclear weapons program in 2003:

“For the purposes of this Estimate, by ‘nuclear weapons program’ we mean Iran’s nuclear weapon design and weaponization work and covert uranium conversion-related and uranium enrichment-related work; we do not mean Iran’s declared civil work related to uranium conversion and enrichment.”

A. We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program; we also assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons.

We were not simply saying in 2007 that Iran had suspended weapons design work; the summary quite clearly cites "covert uranium conversion-related and uranium enrichment-related work".

Yet now we are given assurance that we have been tracking this plant for years.  Does "years" extend back 20 months to January 2008 but no further?

Were we tracking the plant but unaware of its covert enrichment potential (so what were we tracking)?  Or, was the 2007 NIE a deliberate smokescreen?  Or, is the statement that we have known about this for years a smokescreen?

Baffling.

The Times continues to have fun covering the New Obama:

After months of talking about the need for engagement, Mr. Obama appears to have made a leap toward viewing tough new sanctions against Iran as an inevitability. He avoided Mr. Ahmadinejad at the United Nations this week, despite his having said repeatedly that he would seek dialogue with Iranian leaders. Instead, Mr. Obama spent much of his time in New York pressing the case, particularly to Russia and China, for sterner Security Council measures to rein in Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds; if Obama has finally figured out that Iran's leaders have dark intentions and cannot be trusted, well, welcome to reality (and he can leave the 'Kumbaya' songsheet by the door).

MORE:  Here is Walter Pincus of the WaPo writing in Dec 2007:

The estimate noted that Iran continues to enrich uranium for a civil nuclear energy program. But the intelligence experts said they did not consider this a weapons program because it is being done at openly declared facilities under international supervision.

If Iran were to proceed with a weapons effort, it would not be carried out at known facilities, the officials said, adding that they do not believe Iran is enriching uranium at an undeclared facility.

Well, even as of 2009 the newly declared facility is not, in fact, enriching anything - yet.  Back to the current Times:

The senior intelligence officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity at a briefing arranged by the White House immediately after the announcement in Pittsburgh, said that their concerns about the site grew as they learned of the installation of particular equipment there in recent months.

Their information suggested that the site could support some 3,000 centrifuges for enriching nuclear fuel, and their assessment was that this was too small to be useful for civilian nuclear power, but big enough to be used, once it became operational, for making enough bomb-grade material for about one weapon a year.

They said the plant could not have become operational before next year, and that there was no sign of nuclear materials yet at the site. They said that at some point earlier this year, the Iranians appeared to have learned that their activities had been discovered.

So they have known for years that Iran had a secret plant but its purpose only became clear in the last few months?

Comments

[Cecil Turner]

The 2007 report was widely misread (as you noted at the time), and that appears to've been by design.

Moreover, the 2007 report was mostly spin, and apparently designed more for political consumption than an objective analysis of the actual events. John Bolton nailed it:

First, the headline finding -- that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 -- is written in a way that guarantees the totality of the conclusions will be misread. In fact, there is little substantive difference between the conclusions of the 2005 NIE on Iran's nuclear capabilities and the 2007 NIE. Moreover, the distinction between "military" and "civilian" programs is highly artificial, since the enrichment of uranium, which all agree Iran is continuing, is critical to civilian and military uses. Indeed, it has always been Iran's "civilian" program that posed the main risk of a nuclear "breakout." [emphasis added]

Nobody ever claimed they stopped enriching uranium, and the only reason they'd insist on doing that was for a weapon. The old report was spun as something it wasn't, and the bookends (2005, 2009) are reality. Iran isn't back in the game . . . because it never left.

[sbw]

The old report was spun [by whom?] as something it wasn't... and what does one gain by such prostitution.

[kevin bacon]

Remember all the CIA clowns who confirmed WMD's in Iraq? Must be the same ones on the case here...don't worry, we're in the best of hands....

Stay Calm! All is Well!

[Thomas Collins]

Because we were trying to keep Iran in the dark about our monitoring of the Qom site, any publicly released document, such as a National Intelligence Estimate, wouldn't have addressed whether its conclusions were consistent with Qom site activities.

This song and dance is going to go on and on until either (i) Iran gets the bomb and a decent delivery system or (ii) the Israelis or the US take out the bomb making facilities. I don't have much confidence that agreement will be reached on a system of sanctions that works.

[Gregory Koster]

Characteristically, The Once is more concerned about his image, hence the "we knew it all along." than in any substance (Iran might be dangerous.) I will try to find the notorious Herblock cartoon showing Jimmy Carter waving his fists at Menachim Begin while the Arabs smirk in the background, JC saying, "Well I've got to get tough with SOMEBODY!"

Move over Menachim, 300+ million Americans are in the same sinking ship with you.

[MDr]

Obama said he found out during the transition. That'd be Jan 2009, correct? So, he knew long before he started his extended appeasement & apology tour. I can hardly wait to see Russia & China standing firm - sanctions with teeth.

[Barack H Obama, 44th President of the United States and King]

The old report was spun [by whom?] as something it wasn't... and what does one gain by such prostitution.

I was going to suggest 30 pieces of silver, but that kinda screws up the whole metaphor.

[willem]

Obama must have felt the need to tell the truth about something.

Clever how he can do that and still betray the national interest.

[BD57]

There's an argument for the NIE being disinformation to keep the Iranians in the dark about what we knew.

Problem is, that would be too clever by half - it'd also keep the American people in the dark, which would make it difficult to get support for military action if events demanded it.

IMO, the most likely explanation is willful disinformation - the NIE authors sought to undercut any support for military action against the Iranian regime by downplaying its nuclear ambitions & intentions.

[Terry Gain]

The 2007 NIE was intended to undermine Bush and prevent him from taking any action against Iran. It was totally unnecessary as he was too weakened by then to even defend the mission in Iraq.

[Terry Gain]

The 2007 NIE was intended to undermine Bush and prevent him from taking any action against Iran. It was totally unnecessary as he was too weakened by then to even defend the mission in Iraq.

[daddy]

Slightly paraphrased from THE SIMPSON"S MOVIE"

Tom Hanks: Hello, I'm Tom Hanks. The US Government has lost its credibility so it's borrowing some of mine.
Tom Hanks: [voiceover in TV ad] Are you tired of the same old Iraqi Nuclear Enrichment Facility?
TV Dad: [bored] Here we are kids. The Iraqi Nuclear Enrichment Facility.
TV Daughter: Oh, it's so old and boring! I want a new one, *now!*
Tom Hanks: [appears from behind bush] Hello. I'm Tom Hanks. The US Government has lost its credibility, so it's borrowing some of mine.
TV Son: Tussle my hair, Mr. Hanks!
Tom Hanks: Sure thing, son.
[laughs as he does so. Stars come out of the boy's hair. He then smiles in wonder]
Tom Hanks: Now, I'm pleased to tell you about the new Iraqi Nuclear Enrichment Facility.
[shot changes to that of a smouldering crater]
Tom Hanks: Coming this weekend! It's east of Qom and south of Tehran.
Marge Simpson: [watching ad] That's where Qom is!
Tom Hanks: It's nowhere near where anything is or ever was. This is Tom Hanks saying, if you're gonna pick a government to trust, why not this one?

[willem]

I always saw the NIE sabotage as one more case of good old fashioned bureaucratic obstructionism; a Mary McCarthy on-all-fours-sneaky-vermin-kind-of-thing emanating from that dirty little rodent run that travels between the rat's nests at State, HKS, CSIS and Balliol.

I always thought she looked like Sandy Berger in drag.

[StrawmanCometh]

Kevin,
Go home to your wife.

[SWarren]

Did anyone see Steve Diamond's post today. He interviewed a postman who delivered mail to the Ayers home back in the day.

Barack Obama's Visit to the Other Ayers House

Barack Obama visited the house of Tom and Mary Ayers, parents of former Weather Underground activist turned education professor Bill Ayers, in the mid-1980s to thank the Ayers’ for their support of his “education,” according to Alan Hulton, the letter carrier who delivered mail to the Ayers’ Glen Ellyn home at that time. Glen Ellyn is a suburb of Chicago, southwest of the city. Hulton spoke to King Harvest at length about his experience.

“Mrs. Ayers told me that her family had been helping out a brilliant young black man,” Hulton said and whom he believes she said was from Kenya. Hulton said that over the period of six to ten years that he delivered mail to the Ayers home he had numerous conversations with Mrs. Ayers, one conversation with Thomas Ayers and several brief encounters with Bernardine Dohrn who he said lived at the home for several months at one point in time. He never met or saw Bill Ayers at the home.

~snip~
.....Hulton recalls that Obama said hello and introduced himself and stopped to chat with him in front of the Ayers house. “I recall that his ears stuck out a little bit. He was more gaunt then than he appears now. His name was an unusual one and when I saw his photo during the campaign it brought back my memory of the event,” Hulton said.

Mr. Obama explained that he had taken the train out from Chicago to visit the Ayers’ in order to thank them for their help with his “education.” At this time, Mr. Obama had recently graduated from Columbia and would soon enter Harvard Law School. Hulton and Obama “spoke for a few minutes, first chatting about the Ayers family,” Hulton said. Hulton said he did not learn whether the help Obama received from the Ayers’ was financial or in some other form.

Cont'd at LUN.

[Melinda Romanoff]

SWarren-

I'm having a really bad time (intentional, so never mind) but Mr. Diamond seems, at first glance, that current rarity, a labor purist. Very gathered, very intelligent in his compilations, and a concise writer. I really like his approach to his interests.

Where he digs his stuff up from is beyond me.

No music tonight, I'm not even close to being in the mood.

[Terry Gain]

Clifford C. Clavin rats on Obama. I love it.

[SWarren]

Melinda,
Diamond is a professor at a California college (I can't recall the name). His blog used to be Global Labor. He did a tremendous amount of work exposing Obama's Chicago Annenberg Challenge and Obama's role in that failed enterprise that Obama didn't want known at that time. Heh, the only real experience he coud lay claim to and he didn't want to claim it.

Most of the folks here at JOM interacted with Professor Diamond at the time he was exposing that relationship with Ayers.

[Melinda Romanoff]

This is much worse than it sounds, especially when you add in the A. Q. Kahn aspect.

Not. Good.

And they seem to be using the oven mitt approach, how kind of the current administration.

I'm going to try and go to sleep, for the sixth day straight.

No sleeping is not fun, incase anyone asks...

G'night all.

[Melinda Romanoff]

Thanks, SW.

I can see the end of the barrel pointing at me. I just want to see the rest of the gun he's wielding, that's all. Call it a "logic train", just a hint, that's all I need. I like to read a lot of background material first.

And NOW I tip adieu.

[Terry Gain]

Thanks swarren for the link to Diamond. We bookers are very much interested in the Ayers/Obama connection.

[StrawmanCometh]

Copperhead on the picnic blanket
0 - Might be an endangered species, or a political ally.
W - might bite the baby, kill it.

[daddy]

An OT point of encouragement.

Was in San Francisco today, and walking by a battery of 8 newspaper machines, happened to see one that contained The San Francisco Chronicle. Amazing. That paper has shrunk size-wise to little more than a comic-book. Almost the only room available above the fold, gave it's Name, the fact that it was printed on recycled paper, and a line saying it's price was 1 dollar. It was in a machine that said the price was 75 Cents. And it still wasn't sold out. Honestly, the SF Free paper in the next box looked like a larger paper.

It make me remember how they used to re-run old Herb Caen columns 20 years back trying to keep readership, like I thought they used to do after Royko died in Chicago. It got me wondering about which of the current brain-dead, brain-trust of The New York Times columnists any future editor of that rag (should it survive) would inflict on future generations to try to hold on to devoted readers---Modo? Frank Rich? Kruggy? 'enlightened autocracy' Friedman, or 'creased trousers' Brooksie?

Anyhow, the humorous thought of some future editor pulling his hair out over that task while seeing those paper machines full of The San Francisco Comical, were what kept me upbeat on my long walk around the city. Plus listening to a John and Ken Talk Radio radio rant on California State Politicians taking an enormously expensive 2 week fact finding trip to Spain, to learn novel ways to try to fix California's economy--- and Spain's current unemployment rate is 18 percent!
That was comedy gold.

Anyhow, keep laughing when possible.

[Sara (Pal2Pal)]

Stopped by to say thank you for helping with his education? What does that mean? Is it going to turn out that Tom Ayers was Obama's money man?

[Gregory Koster]

Daddy, if you don't laugh you'll bust into tears. I used to say that The Once's administration would be the gaudiest since US Grant's. I begin to think that it may exceed Grant. Plus Harding and Buchanan and...

Every day is filled with laughs. Your notion that the TIMES of 2030 is going to revive Dowd, Friedman, & Co. was good for a snicker. The thought that the press is in a race with The Once to see who blows up first is good for another. The snapping of the whip when even the toady press isn't servile enough will be good for a howl. Of course by then, half us JOMers will be in the labor camp, achieving strength through joy by burying the bodies that have been shoved under the green bus that is being manufactured by the other half of JOM.

Gaudy show indeed.

[Sara (Pal2Pal)]

If Ayers, Sr was underwriting all or part of Obama's Harvard years or helped pick up student loan tabs from Columbia, this would go a long way in explaining the scrubbing and the blackout of those years.

[Sara (Pal2Pal)]

No one wants their damn Obamacare and now to entice us, they want to add a criminal penalty if you don't get it. Up to 1 year in jail and $25,000 fine.

That will sure change lots of minds. Not.

[Fresh Air]

The most stunning bit of that whole piece is that Tom Ayers, rather than disowning his rotten, Marxist son, actually moved in with him later in life.

Traditionally, the chairman of ComEd is the blandest but one of the highest profile jobs in Chicago. I think Tom Ayers may have been a goddamned Commie, too. Unfreakingbelievable! Working fist-in-glove with Richard J. Daley himself. This city is weirder than I ever knew.

[Sara (Pal2Pal)]

I guess it is OR a $25,000 penalty. So if you are rich you pay, if you are the working poor, you lose your job, your family, your home, while you sit in jail for a year. Way to go democrats, all for the little people.

[kevin bacon]

Fresh;

Chicago politics is so crooked even Daley pere' didn't know where all the bodies were buried. Back in the 1890's they started sending their kids back east to Harvard and Yale and the upper class can trace its decline from then on.Thus Ayers.

[Elliott]

Drifting OT to something discussed last night, Obama's writing, I remembered that there are two posts he claims as his own on a Kos diary (http://barack-obama.dailykos.com/). I don't recall Cashill discussing them, though they certainly don't do much to undermine his thesis.

A half paragraph to begin, enthusiastic exegesis to follow:

Let me be clear: I am not arguing that the Democrats should trim their sails and be more "centrist." In fact, I think the whole "centrist" versus "liberal" labels that continue to characterize the debate within the Democratic Party misses the mark. Too often, the "centrist" label seems to mean compromise for compromise sake, whereas on issues like health care, energy, education and tackling poverty, I don't think Democrats have been bold enough.

Ah, to remember those halcyon days of 2005, before "let me be clear" set off more "trip wires" than the whispering of "al sheikh" into a satellite phone in the Hindu Kush. But at least we have a nautical metaphor.

"...the whole...labels...misses the mark." The crack literary analyst can see at once that the disagreement of adjective and noun, subject and verb is not an error, but a subtle way of emphasizing the two groups' increasing alienation.

[bgates]

a subtle way of emphasizing the two groups' increasing alienation

Oooooh. And the phrase "compromise for compromise sake" denotes his unwillingness to take ownership of such a compromise by omitting the possessive.

[daddy]

So Pelosi says we Conservatives with our hate speech are inciting violence, even tho' when we protest there's no violence. Then the Left protests and they do engage in violence. This causes the Police to act to stop the violence, so naturally now the ACLU now accuses the Police of overreacting in putting down ">http://apnews.myway.com/article/20090925/D9AUJCS01.html"> violent protesters.

I'm not yet sure how it's my fault, but by tomorrow morning I'm sure it will be, but I've already got whiplash just trying to keep it all straight.

[glasater]

I'd like to take some of those idiot protestors in Pittsburgh and throw them in a pen with one of these guys.
LUN

Notice the very sturdy fencing and all four feet off the ground:)

[AL]

Iranian nuclear program is a tricky one, and deceptive scaremongering does not help to understand what is going on.

First, the facts.

Iran does not need civilian nuclear power to generate electricity. Co-extraction of natural gas at oil wells (currently flared-off) is more than enough to cover cheaply and fast all elecricity needs of the country. Construction of civilian nuclear reactor by Russians is just a Trojan horse for Iranians to get grip on nuclear technology.

Civilian nuclear reactor built by Russians is physically incapable to generate weapon-grade materials.

Iranian uranium enrichment program could produce in couple of years single uranium bomb, which will be low-yield and extremely heavy, and thus undeliverable by ballistic missiles. Military treat to Europe from Iranian U235 bomb is not existent, and to Israel is scant, especially counting on 500+ Israel fully deliverable nuclear weapons.

Iranian nuclear treat will be real only after couple of years of operation of dedicated plutonium breeder reactor, the one which was bombed by Israel in Iraq and recently in Syria. Currently, Iran does not have such reactor.

Now the prediction.

In couple of years Iran will detonate underground U235 bomb, and from that moment will be untouchable, and will have open hand to forego plutonium breeding, terror spreading, and regional bulling.

Hopefully, mad dog Ahmadinajad will be already dead, and good people of Iran will exchange nuclear madness ambitions for something material.

[hrtshpdbox]

If Ayers, Sr was underwriting all or part of Obama's Harvard years...
Isn't Harvard one of those Ivy's that will foot the bill themselves for applicants they want who don't have the means to pay? More likely that Ayers Sr. would have provided the decisive recommendation to override Obama's substandard Columbia grades. This story would be a bombshell in a world where the mainstream press hadn't built a firewall to protect The One, but as it stands can get any traction at all if someone like Glenn Beck decides to champion it.

[Jack is Back!]

In one of my other lives, I knew Tom Ayers but only in passing at the annual EEI meetings. He was all over the place in Chicago, even chairing the Board of Education and providing financial assistance to Bill and John, 2 of his sons, while they were protesting Vietnam war and on the run. His granddaughter wrote of him in her blog. Lots on interesting information here but I don't know if it supports Diamond's narrative or not. LUN

[Jane]

More likely that Ayers Sr. would have provided the decisive recommendation to override Obama's substandard Columbia grades.

I've said this before, but I graduated from law school the year before he started. The climate then, was schools were actively recruiting blacks (and women) and the standards that applied for college seniors to be accepted were not even in the same stratosphere as the standards for women, which were not in the same stratosphere as the standards for blacks. And it was pretty clear in the classroom.

In my class every black student (except one) got a full ride. By comparison I was my own sole support, no parental aid and I qualified for no 'free' aid despite the fact that I was a woman and older, 2 specific classes they actively sought.)

It's just the time it was. Ayers would not have had to do much if anything if a nice black kid from Hawaii who spent time in Indonesia wanted to attend Harvard Law School.

[Jack is Back!]

Now for 6 degrees of separation.

Tom Ayers grand-daughter who has the blog I reference above is named Kim Allen and one of her "new age" hobbies is Japanese. Maybe she can become the Comparable Health Systems Czar since she is within the 6 degrees of separation with Obama. LUN

[Extraneus]

Ayers would not have had to do much if anything if a nice black kid from Hawaii who spent time in Indonesia wanted to attend Harvard Law School.

Yet the fact of having attended is considered qualification for high office. Kinda cool how that works out.

[Rick Ballard]

FA,

I would think that one would have to examine the net effect to ConEd's bottom line wrt supporting domestic commies over a decade or so to determine whether Tom Ayers was helping or hindering the shareholders. Do utilities actually lose any money from the activities of the watermelons? Don't they reap higher (greater, anyway) profits from spinning dirty fossil fueled generators rather than those clean, quiet, cheap nukes? If ConEd were all clean nukes then they wouldn't be able to charge more than 6-7 cents per KwH rather than the 11-14 cents which they currently extract. Multiply that by a few quadrillion hours and you're talking about some real dough.

It sort of runs hand in hand with the Peak Oil scam which the oil companies never quite seem to overcome. If one person in five hundred actually knew that proven reserves are 30% higher today than they were in 1999 perhaps more negative attention might be paid to the GS manipulation of the oil and gas markets.

It is fitting, IMO, that Ogabe's most ardent and vocal supporters are putting billions in the pockets of slumlords such as Tony Rezco while overpaying utilities run by the likes of Tom Ayers by even more billions to keep from freezing in squalor. Ignorance really shouldn't be cheap.

[bishop]

I went to sleep early last night, missed some of the overnight banter, caught up with the new episodes of NCIS, came across
Geraldo making allusions to Jim Bakker with
regards to the factor, regarding ACORN. The usual tripe regarding sanctions sincethey're
shocked'gambling is going on' Iran had a nuclear facility at their Revolutionary Guard outpost in Qum,Larry King interviewing
Ahmadinejad, in the same brainless Barbara
Walters style.

WTH is going on here, "Mr. President, what did you know of Qum facility, when you sent
the Nourouz letter legitimizing Ahmadinejad"
"What was the status, when you decried the imposition of democracy in Cairo" "When you
responded to a stolen election, and the brutality therein as a 'debate' Or when you cut the number of bases, and GBI interceptors in Alaska, around the time of the North Korean and the Iranian Saajal tests."

It has become more and more apparent that the only voice, that had a smidgen of common sense, in these matters, was the one who was denied an opportunity to speak out
last September, putting forward a statement
of opposition, because she dare not be
'legitimized'. Where is Hillary Clinton in this, if her primary positions were anything
close to true, she would have resigned monthes ago, now it's too late

[Porchlight]

OT,

Byron York: Rahm Emanuel: Health care will pass by Thanksgiving

White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel says a national health care bill will be passed by both houses of Congress "before the members go home for Thanksgiving." Emanuel also claimed the bill will be "bipartisan" even if every Republican in the House and Senate votes against it.

Anyone else getting the sense that the current focus on Iran and Afghanistan, though it isn't helping Zero in the short run, is designed to take our eyes off the health care ball?

[Charlie (Colorado)]

Problem is, that would be too clever by half...

Which means it has CIA written all over it.

[bgates]

Your scary-smart government explained it all to Tapper:

Bombing the facility might only make the Iranians more determined, whereas if Western intelligence agencies catch them violating their agreements every time they cheat -- and this is the third time since 2002 -- the Iranians may conclude, ultimately, that any aspirations for a nuclear weapon are futile.

Consequences would only embolden them. Better to show that they can only have several months of uninterrupted progress at a time before the nations of the world call a press conference.

[Jim Ryan]

I'm looking forward to my year in jail for not buying gummint health insurance. I have a lot of reading to catch up on.

[The Three C's; Climate, Capital, and China.]

OK, they are on to him. Sarkozy, speaking at Pittsburg, says "We live in the real world, not a virtual one". He's mad, I'm telling you.
====================================

[Captain Hate]

In one of my other lives, I knew Tom Ayers but only in passing at the annual EEI meetings.

Edison Electric Institute? Damn JiB, I'm not sure what to think about that having wasted 19.5 years of my life working for an electric utility. Let me put it this way: It's a good place to work if you want to say you have a job.

[Rocco]

Good Morning

I think it's great people are still discussing Ayers in light of an ongoing investigation into the murder of Sgt McDonnell of the San Fran PD. That's why I've been hammering Jeff Jones too from Apollo Alliance.

[Jim Ryan]

OT, My boss said I should check and see if I have a problem with hysteresis. I felt so embarrassed. Does anyone know of a good mouthwash?

[Jack is Back!]

Hmmm!

I thought I would never live long enough to applaud France for having bigger cajones than America. LUN

[Captain Hate]

He's mad, I'm telling you.

Barack Insane Obama

[Jack is Back!]

Cap'n Hate:

19.5 is nothing compared to 35:)

Luckily, I only spent half that on power plants and remainder on all sorts of other stuff. But I agree those guys at EEI are about the biggest bores I have ever met. No sense of humor. I guess you wouldn't have much humor if all you had to do is convince public service commissions you deserve another rate hike.

[bishop]

"Didn't mean to go on a rant" there, well yes I did, nothing makes any sense, 'bearded
spock' 'bizarro world' call it what you will. When the Canadian PM, well he's from Alberta, that's Texas with snow, has more courage than the American President and the British Prime Minister, there's something wrong. Sarkozy, well he's been nattering on about regulation of financialinfrastructure,
but his statements on Iran have been clear,
in the past. Netanyahu, always up to par, yet we heard too much of Quaddafi, who was rewarded for being caught at the nuclear
paypen with AQ Khan's toys. Ahmadinejad, who by all rights should have cuffs on him,
because of the matter in Vienna, 20 years ago

[Cecil Turner]

Iranian uranium enrichment program could produce in couple of years single uranium bomb, which will be low-yield and extremely heavy, and thus undeliverable by ballistic missiles.

If by "low-yield" one means just a few times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb, and by "extremely heavy" one means much more ponderous than the most sophisticated US designs, this is perfectly correct. But I'm not sure why that's supposed to be comforting. And if you're suggesting HEU weapons are undeliverable by ballistic missile, that's simply wrong. Pakistan has a bunch of 'em.

Military treat to Europe from Iranian U235 bomb is not existent, and to Israel is scant, especially counting on 500+ Israel fully deliverable nuclear weapons.

Sorry, but this is internally inconsistent. If it's not a threat, why would Iran be "untouchable"? And why can't they ship 'em in containers, otherwise smuggle them in, or use a one-way bombing mission? And for one thing, I suspect it's more likely Israel has less than 100 weapons. For another, their country is far more vulnerable to attack due to small population and concentration. No Israeli would use the word "scant" in this threat assessment.

[bgates]

Cecil, if you follow the link the guy you're arguing with provided, you'll come to a story about how the Mossad wants to nuke the US. "Internally inconsistent" is the least of his problems.

[hit and run]

bgates' quote:
whereas if Western intelligence agencies catch them violating their agreements every time they cheat -- and this is the third time since 2002 -- the Iranians may conclude, ultimately, that any aspirations for a nuclear weapon are futile.

Son of a...

From the Times' article:

But to the West, there was a sense that Iran had stumbled. “They have cheated three times,” one senior administration official said of the Iranians. “And they have now been caught three times.”

These dumb bastards think that the only time Iran has cheated is the times we've caught them.

It's like the girlfriend who walks in on her boyfriend in bed with another woman.

"I'm so sorry, baby, I swear it was the only time!"

Then a few weeks later, there he is again, with another woman...

"Baby, listen, I swear, it meant nothing and really, it was just these two times!"

Then a few weeks later, she walks in again...

"Come on baby, you gotta believe me,it's only been these three times, we can work this out!"

And the girl thinks to herself, "You know, he's only cheated three times and I've caught him each time and if he ever does it again, I'll catch him. He may conclude, ultimately, that any aspirations for a nuclear weapon cheating on me are futile."

And the guy thinks to himself, "Heh."

[patch]

2007 NIE Lie?

People will die!

[Captain Hate]

JiB,

Yeah the execs are some of the dumbest loads I've ever experienced; a consultant once told me that smart people really scare them which makes complete sense to me. Still there were quite a few good people there who had a fatal flaw preventing them from experiencing the wonders of the relatively free market. Like you, I think, I kept myself from going crazy by demanding lateral moves (since being the snarky commentor that I am, you can imagine how well received I was in a Stalinist system like that). One of the only interesting waystops was the rates department; rate hearings are straight outta Kafka with the intervenor's attorneys being the answer to "Where do the lower 5% of the classes of substandard law schools go?"

Rick, the only reason fossil fuel plants would be more profitable than nukes is that the state Commissars went through a phase in the 80s and probably later in which they disallowed a lot of the investments in nuclear plants as not being "prudent" (which to be sure some weren't; but it was still a highly politicized process). Otherwise iirc they still were allowed the same rate of return.

[Ignatz]

--Obama said he found out during the transition. That'd be Jan 2009, correct? So, he knew long before he started his extended appeasement & apology tour.--

Knowing your enemy is serious and cannot be trusted causes an appeaser and apologist to redouble his efforts at appeasement and apologizing. Since it's our fault they are building these weapons, their intransigence just means we haven't grovelled enough.

[bgates]

Hit, that's about it. They've obviously been cheating every minute for several years, and the cheating is occasionally punctuated by being "caught" (and when I was eight I would already lose respect for substitute teachers who dealt with "caught" rulebreakers with the kind of discussions of referrals to potential conferences on wrist-slapping like Iran faces from us).

[Cecil Turner]

Cecil, if you follow the link the guy you're arguing with provided, you'll come to a story about how the Mossad wants to nuke the US.

Ah, thanks. Shoulda checked.

[Jack is Back!]

Rick Ballard,

ComEd is one of the leading nuclear utilities if not the leader.

I don't know of any major US electric utility with more nukes, do you?

[Rick Ballard]

Cap'n,

Fossil powered generation currently costs 50% more than nuke according to the EIA - I realize that doesn't include the amortization of the plant but 30 year depreciation schedules for nuke plants aren't exactly reflective of reality either. My point is that ConEd shareholders were not hurt by Tom Ayer's dalliance with the commie terrorists he raised anymore than Northern Trust shareholders have been hurt by its financing of Hog Butcher's Hall for the Hyde Park Hypocrite in Chief. He's bought and paid for twice over and even blind progs aren't liking the taste of the ACORNs being turned up daily.

[JM Hanes]

Back when I started following the green movement in Iran, I stumbled on Enduring America which continues to have some of the best daily coverage of background, events, rumors, analysis. Posts which start with GMT time usually means they are live blogging developments, which need to be read from the bottom up. They don't hesitate to take Obama and the west to task, and have said that the fuss over nukes works to Ahmadinejad's advantage domestically, so the following assessment does not come from Obama apologists:

What must be emphasised is that the entire Obama policy in Iran, including the New Years message and the broad engagement strategy, was conceived with the full knowledge that the US could always bring out the “secret nuclear plant”. This was the ace in the hole, which Obama always had, if he needed to inject a sense of urgency into the process of engagement.

[.....]

It will certainly shock opponents of engagement that Obama was prepared to offer so much knowing that the Iranians were building this facility. They will also now assume that all of the current US Government assessments regarding how long it will take for Iran to get the bomb, including the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate, are incorrect. The immediate pressure, however, is on the International Atomic Energy Agency, especially as judgement has already been passed that the configuration of this site, and the nature of its concealment, are not consistent with a peaceful program.

While a lot of people are using the contrast between Sarkozy and Obama to ridicule Obama, the practical ramifications are going largely unexamined. It's certainly about time the Euros stepped up to the plate, and I suspect Sarko is thrilled to be the man out in front making the news. His unicorn asides have less to do with Obama than with establishing himself as the realist willing to make the hard choices, in other words, as the one taking, and being seen taking, the lead on the international stage.

That kind of ownership may, in fact, be the leverage which shifts the balance in the Security Council. The PR faceoff with the US fomented, and essentially being won, by the Russians is wildly popular at home, so there's not much incentive to collaborate in a bipolar US vs Iran venture. They may have sold Obama on the idea of abandoning the eastern Europe missile shield as a quid pro quo for sanctions, but I suspect they're a lot more concerned about pressure from their critically, economically significant, Euro market. In other words, they got a huge hegemonic bang from Obama for the buck they were probably already prepared to spend if useful. If/when they do, it won't look like they are acquiescing to the American Prez, but rather accommodating their European partners. They're playing the missile issue as a U.S. course correction, a measure of Russian influence, not the result of a U.S./Russian bargain. This is not just self-aggrandizing propaganda, as it seems to be described in much of the press.

If the Chinese do cave on sanctions too, it will be billed as a huge victory for Obama's multilateralist policy, and if not, it will be billed as a failure of the international community. That is, in fact, what it will be either way. What will be ignored amidst the plaudits for Obama or the disdain for a feckless Security Council, is the huge price that Obama is paying in the expansion of Russia's sphere of influence, if not dominance over abandoned US allies, and the augmentation of Russian influence in Iran where they will not hesitate to subvert any regimen imposed by the United Nations. Sanctions are ultimately a good deal for Russia and China; corruption 'r us, and doing business under the table is just a little more complicated than doing business in the open. This time, the end game may even look more attractive, if the French refrain from abusing sanctions for their own positioning and economic gain -- something which could easily diminish western influence in the region.

[PD]

My boss said I should check and see if I have a problem with hysteresis.

Whoa, that sounds pretty serious.

Back away from the lagging indicators, now.

[JM Hanes]

Sheesh. TM's got a UN/Sarko/sanctions post up. I can hear the groans already, but I'm going to cross post the tome above to the more topical thread.

[Hope for a victory.]

It won't hurt anyone to read that twice, JMH; good stuff. The Great Game, and Obama's the waterboy.
==================================

[JM Hanes]

Gracious, as usual ====!

[Extraneus]

Back away from the lagging indicators, now.

And whatever you do, stay away from magnets.

[daddy]

JMH,

Please never worry about cross posting. Most of your stuff is always so good that I already always read it at least twice anyway.

Jim Ryan,

On the road when I have that problem i simply eat some kimchee. I still stink, but at least then I have an excuse.