Keith Hennesey On The Health Care Maneuvering In Congress

Keith Hennessey, former economic advisor to George Bush and legislative branch savant (or at least, survivor), handicaps the course of health care reform over the rest of the year. I will steal his summary and exhort you to plow through it all:

I see five possible paths for the President and Democratic Congressional leaders.  I will list them in the order in which I think they will be considered, and I will assign my subjective probabilities to each.

1. Cut a bipartisan deal on a comprehensive bill with 3 Senate Republicans, leading to a law this year;  (10% chance)
2. Pass a partisan bill through the regular Senate process with 59 Senate Democrats + one Republican, leading to a law this year;  (10% chance)
3. Pass a partisan bill through the reconciliation process with 50 of 59 Senate Democrats, leading to a law this year;  (25% chance)
4. Fall back to a much more limited bill that becomes law this year;  (50% chance)
5. No bill becomes law this year. (5% chance)

If you add the probabilities for A + B + C (in my case, 45%) you get the predicted probability of a Presidential “success,” defined as a comprehensive bill that looks somewhat like what is being publicly debated.  Today I project a 55% chance of failure.

I will provide an overview of the legislative landscape, then walk through each path.  What follows is highly judgmental, and I can prove none of it.  It can and will change rapidly beginning seven days from now.  My only defense is that over a 15-year period a President and two Senators paid me in part to do this kind of analysis.  You get it for free.

Free, and well worth it! 

Comments

[Thomas Collins]

I just hope the GOP is smart enough to have Palin as the one replying to Obama's health care speech to the Joint Session of Congress.

[Jack is Back!]

Keith brings experience and logic - the two things most missing in Zero and his cohorts. However, there is that 3rd party of all parties that is now in the mix - citizens. Not just citizens but mad, voting citizens. And how that plays in September and October through congressional reflection will have more to do with this carbuncle than anything else. What I would like to see if Palin can't or won't respond to his JSC speech is to have someone like Tom Coburn or even an ordinary Tea Party/Town Hall type - even the Guy from Boston that does those raucous rants on YouTube.

[Sara (Pal2Pal)]

Obama's speeches and the left's predictable herd mentality as a result, always make me think of my Mother's version of the Gelett Burgess verse, written in 1895:
The original "Purple Cow," from 1895

I never saw a purple cow;
I never hope to see one;
but I can tell you anyhow;
I'd rather see than be one!

Whenever I was proposing some outlandish venture that she didn't approve of and I was using the tried and true, "but, but all the kids are doing it," she would sing out:

"I've never seen a purple cow,
I never hope to see one,
but IF such things in the world exist,
I'd rather see, than be one."

As I got older, all she had to say was, "sounds like a purple cow to me," and I knew to back off, my cause was lost.

[Thomas Collins]

I would give Path 2 (Pass a partisan bill through the regular Senate process with 59 Senate Democrats + one Republican) a 20 percent chance, not the 10 percent chance that Hennessey does. Pelosi Dems will demand a socialized medicine bill. Blue Dogs, under intense pressure from House Dem leadership, will fold. Then there are always a few RINOs in the Senate who invariably pull defeat from the jaws of victory. Also, I think MSM will be so in the tank for Obama that, although there will be public outrage, much of the public will fall for it. I also fear that the Dems will wise up and not keep mentioning Ted K's name in connection with this bill. On the other hand, defeating the socialized medicine option will put Palin in the forefront of the GOP, and she is clearly focused on this issue. So not all GOP leadership will be timid.

[Original MikeS]

Based on Hennesey's excellent analysis, I would like to see Republicans start emphasizing common sense steps to increase the supply side and lower health care costs now.

That first step will make the second step easier to address when the recession is over. It will reduce the number of people who can't afford health insurance and reduce the costs of helping those who need help.

[daddy]

The wagering starts:

My bet is the MSM undercounts the 12 September DC TEA PARTY Protesters by 650,000.

We need to decide on who we can agree to come up with as a legitimate counter of protesters. I will kick in either smoked salmon or a frozen tub of King Crab Legs to the winner. If I win, I want every poster here to have to finish each comment till the end of September with the 4 word comment, "Go To Hell Duke."

Any takers?

[Dave (in MA)]

sorta OT: Curt Schilling hasn't ruled out running for the Kennedy seat.

My facetious opinion on the subject. At least one guy didn't get my reference, but I'd guess that JOMers wouldn't have any trouble.

[gmax]

I think Hennessey is giving way too much probablility to the reconciliation option. That has little chance of success, the parliamentarian and Republicans shutting down the Senate through endless points of order will gut the bill and delay it long enough for the phone lines to melt from the constituents telling their Senate to not bother to show up back home again if they dare pass this.

It will be a declared victory, or the Progressive will throw a temper tantrum and kill any bill that does not have their full socialist masterpiece drawn out. I still think a declared victory is more likely but a temper tantrum from Progs is tough to absolutely rule out.

[daddy]

Geez Dave,

No wonder my ancient ancestors from Salem, Mass got hung as witches. They probably cracked a joke. That reads like a scene from Invasion of the Humor Snatchers.

I'm thinking we need to change "Fun with Dick and Jane"
to "Banal Pleasantries with Dick and Jane", to appeal to that audience.

[willem]

It's a nightmare scenario either way. They don't know what to do. Better to do nothing and stop antagonizing the system with arbitrary and disrupting tactical shifts to create the false appearance of legislative productivity. It's inconceivable something as septic as the 111th Congress could possibly make things better by passing more legislation.

They are not the cure. They are the disease.

[Extraneus]

They're screwed.

They can't allow a fig-leaf bill without the socialism to pass unless they're resigned to to forego Medicare For All for another generation. Yet they can't go for the gold ring anymore, either. Too many Republican spines have been stiffened.

They'll fantasize about taking another run at it in 2013, but the opportunity is lost.

Btw, when was the last time a joint session of Congress was called for something so stupid? I wouldn't be surprised if there are a bunch of empty seats, or even boos during the speech.

[Original MikeS]

In this country we have already solved the problem of health care for people with no insurance. We have "show up" health care. Basically, if you need health care, you simply show up and you get health care. It doesn't matter if you're a citizen or non-citizen, an illegal alien, or and escaped convict. If you show up you get health care.

I suggest we postpone addressing the issue of health insurance for people who can't afford it, until the recession is over.

[daddy]

FWIW,

Called my local kids Middle School this morning about the Obama Teach-a-thon on 8 September. Was told initially it only applied to K thru 6th Grade by folks in the Admin Department, therefore I didn't have to worry about it for my kids.

Fortunately I had the syllabus from ed.gov">http://www.ed.gov/index.jhtml">ed.gov with the teaching lesson for grades 7-12 on my computer, so that didn't wash. Then was told that since the Presidents speech started at noon on the East Coast, that means it would be at 8 O'Clock in the morning out here, so none of our Alaskan kids except a couple High Schoolers would be able to see it, so again, nothing to worry about, move along.

I was not the first caller, and I was extremely polite, but that was already the line I was being fed. Here in our school district we spend $16,000 per year per kid, and every kid has a dozen Apple/Mac Computers in the Classroom, and I think there is also some new invention called a Video Recorder. It's good to know they won't be using any of that to indoctrinate my kid and we'll simply miss Obama's lecture since it'll come on while they're still home eating Cheerio's.

And also FWIW, my brother says the single bus they were using to transport Tea Party protesters from a little bitty community in Coastal North Carolina to DC on September 12 has now turned into 5 full scheduled buses!!! And my brother doesn't even know how to turn on a computer. Yippee.

[Ignatz]

--If I win, I want every poster here to have to finish each comment till the end of September with the 4 word comment, "Go To Hell Duke."

Any takers?--

Would GTHD suffice? If so, I may start doing it regardless of any bet.
Oh yeah, GTHD.

[Extraneus]

The White House says the speech is merely "designed to encourage kids to stay in school."

You'd think this isn't such a problem for K-6, or even middle schoolers, but I guess you'd be wrong.

[bad s##t]

GHTD

[daddy]

That's the spirit Ignatz!

[bad s##t]

ummmm...you know what I meant...

[Extraneus]

The London Telegraph isn't buying the latest Levi exposé.

Yet, perhaps Vanity Fair is more at fault here, with its peculiar obsession with savaging Sarah Palin. Having incessantly aimed vitriol at her looks, her ‘narcissism’, her ‘aggressive’ personality and caricaturing her into an elk-shooting bimbo, it has started scraping the barrel. And this time its instrument of choice is Johnston, a teenage scumbag who would put his ego before his child.

[daddy]

Extraneus,

Just posted this on the Wheels go round link as an FYI for the Bishop since he follows Sarah, but this just in from our local Head Conservative Talk Show Host in Hour 1 today:

Just FYI,

First hour of Fagan today was 10 minutes of how he really, really, really, really didn't want to have to attack Sarah Palin today, then spent the next 30 minutes perusing every sentence of Levi's Vanity Fair story and taking it as complete Gospel, and Levi being the supposed up-front guy in this whole affair. Simply sickening. And come next election cycle, it'll be nothing but bitching and moaning from Fagan about where the heck are the good Conservative candidates.

Simply pathetic, but very predictable.

[willem]

Here's one more product of Congressional idiocy. It's illegal to off-yourself and it's illegal to kill the pain if you don't. Now doctors are presupposed criminals and medical care is subject to the whims and projections of medically illiterate vigilantes in the criminal justice system:

http://www.forbes.com/2009/09/01/siobhan-reynolds-pain-relief-network-wichita-justice-department-opinions-contributors-harvey-a-silverglate.html

Congress made this mess. We howl at Democrats while ignoring the Republican role in outrages like this.

The physician is licensed for a reason. Their role in our society is singular. What you and your doctor decide to be medically necessary for you should be free from interference by third parties. Universal coverage should mean universal coverage of what you and your doctor decide is medically necessary to treat your disease, injury or physical conditions arising therefrom.

That is the reform we need most: absolute primacy of the physician-patient relationship. It will bring us better doctors and make us better patients.

That is the opposite of what Obama and the beltway wants.

It's the european way. If you haven't seen Ben Stein's movie "Expelled" you've missed the primer on what's happening here.

[Jane]

Any takers?
Daddy

I'll be happy to count them for the crab.

Dave I was so excited to hear that Schilling is a maybe. There is hope and change I can believe in.

Caro thinks that we should bring our signs to the capital steps for the Presidebt's speech. I'd rather not get arrested the very first night but I guess I can be persuaded.

"Banal Pleasantries with Dick and Jane"

Harummph!

[Ranger]

Drudge is linking to this story from the UK in his main headline:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/6127514/Sentenced-to-death-on-the-NHS.html>Sentenced to death on the NHS

Patients with terminal illnesses are being made to die prematurely under an NHS scheme to help end their lives, leading doctors warn today.

Once that gets e-mailed around a bit I think Obamacare is going to lose a few more points.

[Original MikeS]

The public still thinks Dems will do a better job at health care than Republicans 45% to 40%.
Repubs should push their common sense reform over the Dems budget busting government health care.

[daddy]

Uh Oh,

Think I'm in the dog house----again. Oh well, GTHD!

[clarice]

I think we ought to live blog the DC tea party for JOM..

[hit and run]

Livestreaming video.

[Frau Beate Uhse]

Just like the extreme leftist wingers believe KSM but not the CIA or our military.

[hit and run]

As Obama hits the reset button on the health care debate, there is but one way he can properly (read: honestly) frame it:

"We cannot afford the same failed policies of the past eight years months!"

[Charlie (Colorado)]

Daddy, what have you got against Duke?

[PeterUK]

""The Liverpool Care Pathway (LCP) is an established and recommended tool that provides clinicians with an evidence-based framework to help delivery of high quality care for people at the end of their lives.

"Many people receive excellent care at the end of their lives. We are investing £286 million over the two years to 2011 to support implementation of the End of Life Care Strategy to help improve end of life care for all adults, regardless of where they live.”

Wonderful piece piece of bureaucratese.

Dear old Dr Shipman.

[Jane]

I think we should all take up the Presidebt's challange and talk about how he has inspired us.

The Presidebt has inspired me to travel to his homeland, lugging signs and luggage and velcro.

[clarice]

The Presidebt has inspired me to offer to adopt a Massachusetts resident who wants to live free and quit working to pay off what trust fund Kennedys have decided to give from her pocket to others.

[Melinda Romanoff]

I'm not going to ask about the velcro....

[clarice]

Jane-I am overloaded with velcro--you needn't bring any--just tell me if you want it and how much you need.

[PeterUK]

Someone has to Melinda.

[Extraneus]

Really gets the imagination going, huh Mel?

[Ignatz]

--I'm not going to ask about the velcro....--

I am.
I get the signs and the luggage, Jane but how does Barry inspire velcro?
Unless that is your typical right wing racist subliminal message; a comment on his hair perhaps?

[Jane]

Re: velcro: Now you are asking for state secrets, which I cannot divulge lest I have to knock you off for the cause.

And Glenda, I will be also adopted by you. I've never been to Texas (or DC for that matter.)

[Extraneus]

Really Jane? Go to Arlington Cemetary if you get the chance.

I happened to be sitting there by myself at the tomb of the unknown soldier on December 7th, 1991, never giving the date any thought, when a bugle sound in the distance started getting closer and closer. A few minutes later, some old guys with vet hats walked up in a procession, joined by a few other civilians and three or four military. They had a little ceremony, less than ten people, with the old guys visibly tearing up. I was the only spectator there and it was unforgettable.

[Porchlight]

Wow, Extraneus.

[Jane]

Wow indeed.

[Captain Hate]

Daddy, what have you got against Duke?

He's a Tarhole

[Melinda Romanoff]

Extraneus, that.is.cool.

There used to be a similar march at a base near here. It used to be sounded at the Central Time of the first strike. Not used to hearing "Taps" at that hour. Anybody remember the words? All I can conjure up is the final stanza, "Day is nigh."

And I'm still not asking about the velcro.

[clarice]

Mel--

Day is done, gone the sun,
From the lake, from the hills, from the sky;
All is well, safely rest, God is nigh.

Fading light, dims the sight,
And a star gems the sky, gleaming bright.
From afar, drawing nigh, falls the night.

Thanks and praise, for our days,
'Neath the sun, 'neath the stars, neath the sky;
As we go, this we know, God is nigh.

Sun has set, shadows come,
Time has fled, Scouts must go to their beds
Always true to the promise that they made.

While the light fades from sight,
And the stars gleaming rays softly send,
To thy hands we our souls, Lord, commend

[Melinda Romanoff]

but I will laud Clifford Brown.

[Mary]

Extraneus

That's a wonderful memory. December 7th changed my father's life. It was why he enlisted and the GI bill made his education possible after the war. It is also the day he died in 1988. He is buried at the Rock Island Arsenal. My mother joined him in 2000. The lone bugler is a wonderful tradition. We were lucky enough to hear a lone piper in Scotland one year.

[reagan]

After Tripp was born, Sarah would pay more attention to our son than she would to her own baby, Trig. Sarah has a weird sense of humor. When she came home from work, Bristol and I would be holding Trig and Tripp. Sarah would call Trig--who was born with Down syndrome--"my little Down's baby." But I couldn't believe it when she would come over and sometimes say, playing around, "No, I don't want the retarded baby--I want the other one," and pick up Tripp.

[Melinda Romanoff]

I didn't know all five, just a "PC" version of the first, so it seems.

Thanks, clarice.

OT, but I'll know later tomorrow, I may be in touch for logistical help, if you don't mind.

[Melinda Romanoff]

Yippee!

Who loaded the link now? Memeorandum again?

Sheesh.

[clarice]

I only knew the first stanza myself.

[matt]

Anyone see the lede in today's Telegraph about assisted death in the NHS? I continued my banality of evil theme. This is really evil stuff over there. LUN.

[Melinda Romanoff]

I thought I did too, turns out I knew a PC version, and they came up short with one stanza of "new" lyrics. (Trying to scrub memories with rag, not working much..)

(Stephane Grappelli- Honeysuckle Rose.)

[Jim Ryan]

Goodness, via Insty, it's clear that in the last little while we have definitely moved on to farce. Guy's name is Jim Jones, no less. Poor bastard drank the koolaid and is trying to repeat the mantra. But it's gobbledy-gook.

The administration is a joke. We installed a bunch of yahoos, led by a man with no significant experience in anything at all. It's not a poor administration. It goes far beyond that. It's a joke. It's like installing your alcoholic brother in the family business in an executive capacity and then realizing what you've done.

The Dems in Congress were already a joke. Now one of their least able is the POTUS.

Next week students will be forced to listen to this bozo talk. The teachers will have the kids "write letters to themselves about what they can do to help the president. These would be collected and redistributed at an appropriate later date by the teacher to make students accountable to their goals." What a farce.

If your kid goes to a school that does this, yank him out and homeschool him from now on.

[Captain Hate]

O/T: I think somebody posted a comment earlier this week that they hoped the "A" team talk radio people would be back to discuss the back and forths of ObamaDontCare and other things. I think I've stated here previously that I generally don't listen to Rush because I find his schtick annoying. I get it that he does some of it for effect and to drive libs crazier than they already are but when it bugs the hell out of me then I think the impact may be blunted. For example, recently I had him on the radio and all he was talking about was being on The Family Guy and how everybody liked him; I'm listening to this thinking "Please stfu about this and talk about something other than dropping names about how effing wonderful you are".

Anyway, I'm kind of as pissed off at him taking a vacation now as I am at Bammers. Don't get me wrong: I don't begrudge him anything that he's earned and I'd rather have him on our side than not, particularly how he irritates Odummy. But when I do hear him he's railing about how things are going to hell in a handcart, which I believe they are. That said I think with somebody of his visibility it's kind of high handed to just pull an "I'm going on vacation tra la fucking la".

Maybe I'm being an idiot about this (and I'd welcome any comments saying so even though it probably won't change how I feel, I'd be interested in contrary points of view) because the show improves when the likes of Steyn host it. Similarly when Laura Ingraham goes off Tammy Bruce might actually improve her show (her verbal beatdown on Meghan McCain had me wishing for a transcript to use for my own purposes). It's small potatoes anyway because I depend on this site and others for info far more than I do AM radio. It's just something that's bugging me and wanted to toss it out for comments.

Or you can tell me to stfu and get back on topic.

[clarice]

stfu

[Melinda Romanoff]

Cap'n-

You point and I'll row.

Well put.

[Melinda Romanoff]

(Miles-Boplicity)

Time for the rack.

G'night all.

[Captain Hate]

Thanks for both comments.

Melinda, you live in Chicago, no? Do you go to the Jazz Festival which I believe is starting this week? Hopefully you'll see this question tomorrow.

[sbw]

Rush is not the center of my attention, nor should he be, no matter how much the "Hey, bunnies!" people would like me to look in his direction.

I'm not about to tell Capt'n to stfu, but I can suggest he not be taken in by any gambits, either.

[centralcal]

Another interesting evening at JOM! ha ha.

Anyway ... Clarice or whoever had the idea to blog 9/12 in DC - please do. I will be home from the beach by then, feeling very blue that I am not a part of all the fun you will be having, and will really appreciate a report from the "front lines."

[bishop]

Steyn is best in the fill in host, Walter Williams is very good Davis is OK, Mark Beling puts one to sleep. Tammy seems sharper than Laura, who seems slow on the uptake

[Frau Ernst]

==I happened to be sitting there by myself at the tomb of the unknown soldier on December 7th, 1991--

A few years ago, Extraneus, I met an older woman who lives near San Diego. She is a member of the Pearl Harbor Survivors. She was a child riding with her mother and siblings in a car when the attack began nearby. The group, understandably, is growing smaller each year. They hold reunions around the country. Perhaps, you saw some of the members.

[Frau Doktor]

Playing doctor:
On Sept. 9, Obama plans to give lawmakers a more specific prescription for health care legislation than he has in the past, aides said.

Will he mention velcro? Actually, duct tape is better.

[JM Hanes]

Given the national mood, I'd put reconciliation at slim to none, and fallback as a near certainty. Team Obama can't afford the outrage that a partisan healthcare coup would engender.

The reinvigorated Obama will come out blasting Republican refusniks, while assuring the public that he's been listening to their concerns. He knows how much they want reform that works! He'll be rolling up his sleeves to get a fractious Congress over the final hump, saying that neither side can let perfect be the enemy of the good, of course.

The Dems will ultimately excise whatever it takes to get the blue dogs and the necessary Repubican tokens on board. The unions will be bought off with dollars buried in the final bill somewhere, and Rahm "Sub Rosa" Emanuel will make sure key lefties are up to date on the meaning of "Trojan horse."

Democrats can, in fact, strip almost everything out of the final bill, as long as it sets up the necessary bureaucratic architecture for future incremental construction. That Trojan Horse was launched in the Stimulus Bill, so they're already halfway there.

Obama, himself, will jettison anything or anybody to get a bill passed by Christmas (ponder the symbolism!). He can spin a world historic success out of any piece of dross that makes it to his desk, but he has owned healthcare from day one, and failure on that front would devastate his Presidency.

What I hope is that the White House has misjudged the animating spirit of current protests. They've been conflated with opposition to healthcare by both pols and media, but the initial passion was generated by the prospect of massive government expansion and spending. I can only hope that passion proves to be abiding .

[Ann]

I can only hope that passion proves to be abiding. Me too, JMH!

Here is the list:

If you can not make it to 9/12 in D.C. you might think of "Let's Roll" on another day!

[Ann]

You just never know about preview:

Let's Roll

Sorry!

[Janet]

((They are not the cure. They are the disease.))

Thanks willem - That is my Tea Party poster now.

Congress
They are not the cure.
They are the disease.

[Janet]

Captain Hate -

I'm a big fan of Rush, but I was sad to hear he was gonna be on The Family Guy. That show is "over the top" ugly to all things Christian.

[Extraneus]

I agree the man deserves his vacations, and I'm sure it's fun to star in a cartoon, but Mark Davis has to go. I can't even listen to the guy. Beling should be next off the boat, I think. Steyn is the best, but there must be others out there willing to stand in for Rush Limbaugh. Jane, for example.

[clarice]

jmh--an excellent analysis!!

[Captain Hate]

Continuing my O/T fixation on the media: Strange that ABC is replacing Charlie Gibson with Diane Sawyer; despite massive cosmetic surgery there's no way this can be called a youth movement(would she be accurately categorized as a GI(not)LF?). Also in no accounts have I seen it mentioned her role in the Food Lion scandal which should serve as an example of the MSM's almost complete inability or unwillingness to police itself.

Back on target, the assault by team Bammers on health care using the op-eds continues on LUN with a nerf attack by tax cheat Puff Douchle. I defy you to find one honest sentence in the whole frickin' thing. It does point out the wisdom of the North Dakota voters in tossing this mendacious bum out on his kiester. And the comments are hilariously spot-on.

[Jack is Back!]

Daddy, after reading Levi's expose in Vanity Fair at the link, I would be very concerned as to the quality of education in Alaskan schools. Obviously, he missed a lot of his lessons and even grades. I mean I live in "cracker" land here in Florida and we have our handful of village idiots but Levi is making those here look like geniuses. Was he wearing a helmet when he was playing hockey?

[clarice]

Wow--those comments should be printed on asbestos!

[PeterUK]

CH,

"Continuing my O/T fixation on the media: Strange that ABC is replacing Charlie Gibson with Diane Sawyer; despite massive cosmetic surgery there's no way this can be called a youth movement"

Good news. The more candidates for Ubertottenfuhrer E Z Kill and his life attenuation in positions of influence the better.

[PeterUK]

JiB,
Levi Johnson was probably heading the puck.

[Pofarmer]

I think Keith Hennesey may be suffering from trying to give rational though to Chicago thug tactics.

[Pofarmer]

Honestly, to get Rush, you can't listen to just every once in a while(which I'm guilty of) you have to listen at least some about every day, and then for a while to "get" Rush. He does three hours every day, it's gonna be hard to keep it full of political substance for that length of time, and then, if you catch it on Fridays, the show can go all over the map.

It does point out the wisdom of the North Dakota voters in tossing this mendacious bum out on his kiester.

Can't we have some kind of a "You get voted out, you're out" rule? I mean, this administration is entirely populated with folks who could NEVER get elected in any but the bluest of the blue prog hells.

[Ignatz]

-- Daddy, after reading Levi's expose in Vanity Fair at the link, I would be very concerned as to the quality of education in Alaskan schools. Obviously, he missed a lot of his lessons and even grades. I mean I live in "cracker" land here in Florida and we have our handful of village idiots but Levi is making those here look like geniuses.--

So what does it say about the VF crowd that they take the self serving imbecilities of this knotheaded, creepy little climber seriously? Something even worse than it does about Levi.

[sbw]

Who can fault VF for engaging in tabloid entertainment. It's the readers and advertisers who cannot discern news from dross.

[PeterUK]

""No, I don't want the retarded baby, Semantic Leo--I want the other one," and pick up Tripp.

[daddy]

JIB,

Can't say about Levi's intellect or lack thereof. It seems obvious he never had any decent parental involvement in school, and parental involvement, especially at a young age, is the essential key to motivating kids to learn.

As to the quality of education in Anchorage schools, I am enormously concerned. We have had the kids enrolled in the extracurricular KUMON Math/Reading program since they were 4 or 5, and they are consistently top of the class. Because of my job, when I am home from trips I am completely free to do whatever I want, so I always volunteered for school duty stuff. Middle school is now different, but in Elementary I knew every teacher and kid in the joint.
One project involved me tagging each book on the shelves with a color code, so that the kids would know if they read the one with a red tag they got 25 points, the blue 35 points etc. I was surprised that the Tom Sawyer's, Heidi's, Swiss Family Robinson's etc on the shelf didn't warrant any color stickers. Questioning the Teacher (a very nice Lady) she advised that the Education Bureaucrats decree which schlocky books will get points for awards/competition etc, so that it is a backhanded way of deleting the incentive to read the classics in favor or pushing pet books of Administrators and school boards. Kids can still read Kidnapped or Treasure Island, but they get no credit for it, and their buddies in class who instead read junk like "Maniac McGee" etc, move ahead and get the awards and sweatshirt and cash coupons at the school store. So it's no wonder that Levi comes out of Wasilla High, or wherever with zero knowledge of the Classics or American History or basically anything else.
Hell, look at Senator Mark Begich. All Levi needs is 2 semesters in a local Junior College and he's qualified to be our next Senator from the Great State of Alaska.