McChrystal Had Better Know What He Is Doing

The WaPo discusses the ghastly short-term political implications of McChrystal's emphasis on protecting the Afghan population rather than our own forces:

Less Peril for Civilians, but More for Troops

As U.S. Toll in Afghanistan Rises, Lawmakers And Families Are Questioning New Restrictions

Concern is rising in Congress and among military families over a sharp increase in U.S. troop deaths in Afghanistan at a time when senior military officials acknowledge that American service members are facing greater risks under a new strategy that emphasizes protecting Afghan civilians.

...McChrystal, in a major assessment disclosed by The Washington Post on Monday, castigated the U.S. military in Afghanistan for being "preoccupied with protection of our own forces." He wrote that U.S. and other military personnel must minimize their time in armored vehicles and walled bases and "share risk, at least equally, with the people." McChrystal also called for coalition troops to "radically increase" joint operations with Afghan forces. Both steps, he said, mean greater risk for coalition troops in the near term but could "ultimately save lives in the long run."

The problem is, the long run is a series of short runs, and sometimes you can't get there from here.

If we had strong public support for the effort in Afghanistan, or a President inclined to use his rhetorical gifts to rally some, a strategy that literally trades more deaths today for the prospect of fewer deaths down the road might be sustainable.  Bush managed a similar feat (and sans the rhetorical gifts) with the surge in Iraq, which projected a short term increase in deaths with the new mission of population protection coupled with new Rues of Engagement.  But as Obama would say with pride, he isn't George Bush.

GRACEFUL SEGUE:  Fred Kaplan, in his latest apologia for the Obama Administration, explains that success in Afghanistan requires both more troops and a legitimate Afghan government.  Well, sure, but did Team Obama only just now discover problems with the Afghan government that were not obvious last March, when Obama announced his last six-month plan?  My goodness, the Afghan election was riddled with fraud, and it will be cold this winter.

I would hate to think the Obama Administration relied on phony intelligence about the reliability and integrity of the Karzai government.  Perhaps if they had read the NY Times - this is from Feb 9, prior to Obama's presentation of a new strategy:

American officials at the Munich conference questioned the gap between Mr. Karzai’s presentation of reality and what they see as the facts on the ground. The pervasive corruption in the country is viewed as a central reason that the Afghan leader has fallen out of favor with the Obama administration. Mr. Karzai faces an election in August.

On Feb 8, the Times front-paged a story highlighting Joe Biden's problems with Karzai:

KABUL, Afghanistan — A foretaste of what would be in store for President Hamid Karzai after the election of a new American administration came last February, when Joseph R. Biden Jr., then a senator, sat down to a formal dinner at the palace during a visit here.

Between platters of lamb and rice, Mr. Biden and two other American senators questioned Mr. Karzai about corruption in his government, which, by many estimates, is among the worst in the world. Mr. Karzai assured Mr. Biden and the other senators that there was no corruption at all and that, in any case, it was not his fault.

The senators gaped in astonishment. After 45 minutes, Mr. Biden threw down his napkin and stood up.

“This dinner is over,” Mr. Biden announced, according to one of the people in the room at the time. And the three senators walked out, long before the appointed time.

Per current reporting Biden was a skeptic about sending more troops last March and still is.

I guess the Administration spin will have to be that Karzai is even worse than they thought, and Joe Biden is even smarter than they thought.  Does that inspire confidence in their judgment?  Hmm - maybe after they fine-tune their assessments of our friends they can reconsider their view of our enemies.

Comments

[I think I'm going to be sick.]

Let's get this straight, was Biden's monstrously rude gesture in February of '08?
=======================

[matt]

we are using B-52's and B-1's as tactical strike aircraft because we don't have enough A-10's or other alternatives. It can take an hour to get a single Apache at times. Luckily we have the firepower for most instances.

In addition, coalition forces do not practice FAC (forward air control) the way we do (viz the German tanker fiasco), resulting in unnecessary casualties. The rules of engagement are reasonable, but things like the Marines getting killed 10 days ago were command errors, not ROE.

We need more close air support in the form of something like the old A-1 Skyraiders or more A-10's. Unfortunately the AF hates close air support.

McChrystal knows what he's doing.

[sbw]

... or was it Karzai who, in the face of such political corruption in this country, threw down his napkin and stood up, announcing, “This dinner is over,” walking out, long before the appointed time.

[Rob Crawford]

So did Biden walk out because he didn't believe Karzai, or because Karzai didn't offer him a cut?

[Counterinsurgency is the wrong meme. In the Taliban, we are fighting a foreign(Wahabbi) supported invasion by folks the native Afghani don't like..]

Among the strictures the Air Force is facing is the impulse to buzz the enemy instead of bombing them. On the face of it, this seems absurd, but I'm not really sure it is.
===========================

[Pofarmer]

B1's and B52's are actually decent in this role. They carry smaller precision guided bombs, and lot's of them, and, the supersonic B-1 can change stations in a hurry. It's still sad though, that we don't have anything to replace the aging A-10s.

[Fresh Air]

If we had strong public support for the effort in Afghanistan, or a President inclined to use his rhetorical gifts to rally some...

Given Zero's accomplishments with healthcare rhetoric, perhaps it's best if he doesn't give any speeches on a subject he knows even less about.

[Pofarmer]

If we had strong public support for the effort in Afghanistan,

Well, shit, what do you expect after the Dim's worked for 6 years to destroy support for EVERYTHING?

[Charlie (Colorado)]

Fred Kaplan, in his latest apologia for the Obama Administration

I think you're on to something here, Tom. Obama Mania is a mystery religion.

[Radical, violent, Islam is a long term loser. Just as is violent, radical, progressivism, AKA Stalinism.]

I'm optimistic that the Taliban can be squeezed between an effective American force and the Pakistanis, who've finally realized the threat to them that radical Islam represents. The money flow from Arabia must be abrupted, though, and Obama is not the man to get that done.
===============================

[Fresh Air]

Charlie--

Obama Mania is a mystery religion.

I think it's chiefly practiced by people who secretly fear they are racists. They know who they are.

[RichatUF]

kim-

I'm doubtful of that. The Taliban were a mostly an ISI creation and the Saudi's had no problems funding them when oil was $10/bbl.

Obama's problem is that he telegraphed his weakness and ineptitude, and everyone who wants to take a shot at the US, can decamp in Afghanistan for the foreseeable future. He got aced out of our Central Asian airbases, then has to count of Russian good graces so we can transport what we need to theater. He is unnecessarily provocative to Pakistan when we need either their good graces or enough people in our vest pocket that they look the other way. He threw Central and Eastern Europe under the bus by pulling the plug on missile defense, but still needs NATOs help if he wants a new strategy and more troops. Although it is in a different realm, he is pursuing a weak dollar and trade protectionist strategy, which is antagonizing Germany. One might also include that he has really went over the top with antagonizing the British, but by canceling the second engine of the F35, he is looking to wreck that military relationship too.

In all, Obama is looking for a strategy which will eliminate NATO and hurt the US military as an effective fighting force, but do it in such a way that the media wouldn't be too curious or run too many negative stories.

[Doesn't it occur to Obama that there are dangers in the world which require a robust military to protect us from?.]

Yep, Rich, but the ISI is now of two minds about radical Islam. And sure, the Arabian funding is the big problem. Absent funding, the Taliban are alien usurpers. Well they are even with funding, but they will be poor and pusillanimous without it.
=================================

[bishop]

The Sauds know that the Ilkwan always is a fareweather ally at best, the Grand Mosque
siege should have tipped them off to that. Cawthorne's legacy, the ISI, also carries a doble edged sword, they really don't want to live under Sharia law either, but they
can't control what they put in place a generation ago.

[PeterUK]

"I'm optimistic that the Taliban can be squeezed between an effective American force and the Pakistanis, who've finally realized the threat to them that radical Islam represents"

Unfortunately for this argument, Pakistan was created to be a Muslim country.

[peter]

President Obama announced that he will come up with an effective Afghanistan strategy as soon as he finishes his first paper for the Harvard Law Review.

[Sure, we don't know where Pakistan is going to land.]

Sure, PUK, but nowhere in the charter is a commitment to violence and religious insanity. And you can't argue that the Pakistani government has not had a come to Allah moment about the violent criminals it harbors in the borderlands.
================================

[Fresh Air]

PUK--

Pakistan also had the highest support of any country for Bin Laden, IIRC.

[Jack is Back!]

As a former RN on a buffer, I couldn't agree more with Pofarmer but it does have its limitations especially in mountainous terrain - depending, of course, on its ordinance and availability of FAC. Then you have the politics of losing something like a buffer (lower altitude) - the Once doesn't want to be the first to lose a 52 in Afghanistan - imagine the repercussions of that.

The use of stand-off cruising and launch platforms are always available depending on the accuracy of Predator G2 and/or FAC. It is not just the Air Force that shuns CAS but also the Marines and Army if there has been no prior coordination or Air Force FAC embedded. Not everyone is a gungho SEAL or SFO who has the cajones to call in CAS within yards of their position.

Air power is a bitch, especially if you don't have any of your own. But boots on the ground still win battles and wars.

As far as the McC strategy of winning heart and minds by protecting the populace it is straight out of Al-Anbar playbook. The Talibunnies and Binny's rags are a serious threat to the average Pushtun and by showing them we are there to keep them in tact he hopes to replicate The Awakening. War is tough on everyone not just the grunts. The only one finding this out now is the Once. I have to ask myself everyday, "what the hell did this guy think the job of President of the USA was all about - speaking and smiling"?

[PeterUK]

Kim,A quick look at the slaughter that took place on the Partition of India should disabuse you of that.

[cleantalkingchimp]

@Rob Crawford
So did Biden walk out because he didn't believe Karzai, or because Karzai didn't offer him a cut?

Biden walked out because Karzai is a bigger pompous ass than even he is.

[Jack is Back!]

Why do American's lead the rush to UK papers on-line to get the real news and assessments? LUN

[Peter!]

Nile Gardiner in the Telegraph linked at the sidebar Memeorandum is good on all the love for Obama at the UN.

I'm not sure how religious and ethnic violence from half a century ago speaks to my point that the Pakistani government is evolving their attiude toward the Taliban and al Qaeda.
===========================

[PeterUK]

Barrack Hussein Obama Leader of the Un-Free World. From JiB link above.

"The president scores highly at the UN for refusing to project American values and military might on the world stage, with rare exceptions like the war against the Taliban. His appeasement of Iran, his bullying of Israel, his surrender to Moscow, his call for a nuclear free world, his siding with Marxists in Honduras, his talk of a climate change deal, have all won him plaudits in the large number of UN member states where US foreign policy has traditionally been viewed with contempt.

Simply put, Barack Obama is loved at the UN because he largely fails to advance real American leadership. This is a dangerous strategy of decline that will weaken US power and make her far more vulnerable to attack."

You elected your first Third World president.

[PeterUK]

"I'm not sure how religious and ethnic violence from half a century ago speaks to my point that the Pakistani government is evolving their attiude toward the Taliban and al Qaeda."

Because it is still there,seething under the surface.Check out the assassinations and attempted assassinations of politicians.

[Ignatz]

--Sure, PUK, but nowhere in the charter is a commitment to violence and religious insanity.--

No, that would be in the Koran.

[Cecil Turner]

It is not just the Air Force that shuns CAS but also the Marines and Army if there has been no prior coordination or Air Force FAC embedded.

Marine SOP is to have a FAC with each forward company, to avoid just that problem. And the biggest issue with having a bomber conduct it is that the launch platform has limited ability to look at the target (as compared with an A-whatever).

[Another cult of Abraham.]

You forget, Ignatz, that for over a billlion peaceloving Muslims, the Koran is a source of comfort and hope, just as any religious tract is for its readers and adherents. It is senseless to damn the majority of Muslims for the excesses of a very small and overly funded minority.
=============================

[Cecil Turner]

You elected your first Third World president.

Luckily for him, Qaddafi is making him look a lot better; he has been going on for about an hour in what can only be described as "blithering." I'd have wished the contrast could've been a bit more stark, but . . .

[I'm not trying to say the government is united in opposition to the Taliban.]

It doesn't matter what you thinks seethes where, PuK; the government of Pakistan is now seething with fear as to what radical Muslims can do to their constitutional republic.
==============================

[Uncle BigBad]

Narciso, where are You? Sarah made her speech.

[matt]

The bombers are in many cases dropping from 30-60,000 feet, so from the time the bombs drop to the time they hit things can change. Another variable. Guided bombs are okay forwell trained FAC's, but the allies just don't work very often with them. That's why so many times the incidents are listed as "ISAF" forces instead of dumbass (insert country here)"my bad".

A close friend of mine was Marine Air in the day and loved his Spad. The troops tend to love the A-10 as well. Amazing that they haven't built one for 20+ years and yet it seems our crash rate is almost nonexistent. One of the great aircraft.

[bishop]

I've been Luning and posting segments all morning; mostly on the previous thread

[abad man]

Part of the problem in Pakistan problem is that the Pashtun population of western Pakistan does not share the national identity of Pakistan. As in Afghanistan these tribal influences of the Pashtun people outweigh any sense of national identity and I believe even religious identity. The ruggedness and isolation of the terrain tends to reinforce these tendencies. The Taliban just needs to come through every once and awhile and bust some heads to control the population. We need to be the3re all the time to protect them, so it is not really a fair or easy fight. In my experience the average Afghan does not like the Taliban and is at least willing to tolerate presence of Americans. We're dull, more than a little pompous and superior, bumbling oafs in many cases, but they know we mean well and in many cases have seen us give the shirts off of our backs to them.

To me that is what McChrystal is trying to do. It can and is working at the individual level, one or two Afghans at a time. The biggest problem with this approach is the amount of time it will take to affect true change in the country. The real debate needs to be do we have the patience and national will to invest the decades of effort it will ultimately require.

[PeterUK]

Kim.Just go and check out the assassinations.Pakistan has been seething since its inception.

[dk70]

This is what happened in Iraq when the surge first began. Our troops were more vulnerable at first and al-Qaeda proved to the civilians that they're better off with the Americans around killing the bad guys. This strategy takes time and patience of which Pres. Obama and Democrats both lack. Republicans better not start a body-count watch though.

[PeterUK]

abad man.
That may be what McChrystal is trying to do,but what is Obama trying to do?

[Cecil Turner]

The bombers are in many cases dropping from 30-60,000 feet, so from the time the bombs drop to the time they hit things can change.

It happens, but generally a target takes several minutes to process, and a GPS-guided JDAM is unsuitable for a moving target anyway (whether it's 10 sec or a minute bomb fall time is irrelevant). The big issue is eyes on target: the bomb-dropper gives a sanity check, and in some cases he's able to acquire a target whether the FAC can see it directly or not.

I've been out of it for a while, and am unsure of what proportion of munitions are precision guided (Maverick, LGB, et al, as opposed to those going to a coordinate), but those would typically be limited to the A-types as well.

[Original MikeS]

The biggest wildcard in Afghanistan is Obama.
Will he support the strategy that he supported a few months ago? Apparently even he doesn't know. Near as I can understand, the matter will ultimately depend on how Obama "feels" about it.

[Ignatz]

--You forget, Ignatz, that for over a billlion peaceloving Muslims, the Koran is a source of comfort and hope, just as any religious tract is for its readers and adherents.--

Are they peace loving because of, or in spite of, a text which tells them to either kill or subjugate their infidel neighbors?

Possibly it is a great comfort to its adherents; it's we non-adherents for whom it is somewhat more problematic.

[PeterUK]

Perhaps there could be a JOM tour of Cathedrals in the Middle East.

[Didn't we ever have the Enlightenment?]

So shall we all turn Buddhist since all of the cults of Abraham have descended to violence on occasion? What, you tell me there have been violent Buddhists, too?

I don't think you can blame violent Islam on the Koran. You can blame it on inadequately spiritually led humans if you like. Class and ethnic warfare predate Abraham, even, but if you want to blame the Koran, go ahead; you are just not very likely to contribute insight to the amelioration of the problems.
=========================================

[The mass of Muslims are innocent of this mess.]

Answer, they are peaceloving because that is a preferable state for humans and their societies than warfare.
=================================

[Original MikeS]

The Administration is worried about the dependability of Hamid Karzai. No word yet regarding what the Polish government thinks.

[Well, no longer ignorant about its dependability, anyway.]

The Polish Government is no longer worried about the dependability of the US Government.
================================

[Ignatz]

--So shall we all turn Buddhist since all of the cults of Abraham have descended to violence on occasion?--

Christians who are violent toward or subjugate their neighbors do so in violation of the tenets of their faith and the instructions of the founder of their faith.
Muslims who are violent toward or subjugate their neighbors are obeying the tenets of their faith and the instructions of its founder.

--you are just not very likely to contribute insight to the amelioration of the problems.--

I would think speaking the truth about the basis of Islam would contribute a great deal of insight to the problems Islam's neighbors have encountered with it for the last 1400 years.

[PD]

I didn't watch Obama's appearance on Letterman, but I saw the clip where Letterman asked him about whether he'd send more troops to Afghanistan. Obama's reply was that he'd be considering it very carefully, but it depended on what our goals are there.

That's jaw-dropping. He's been in office 8 months and he doesn't YET know what his goals in Afghanistan are?

Yet more of that vaulted ability to multitask, I guess.

[PD]

if you want to blame the Koran, go ahead; you are just not very likely to contribute insight to the amelioration of the problems.

If the Koran is the, or a, source of the problems, failure to recognize that isn't likely to lead to insight, either.

[Fresh Air]

Matt--

There is a Warthog driver running for Congress.

[Extraneus]

I don't think you can blame violent Islam on the Koran.

The Koran instructs Muslims to be violent. If it didn't, they'd be more peaceful. The Koran itself is the root of much of the world's problems, and that fact should not be sugar-coated. If more people read what's stated in the Koran, by Allah, I think it would contribute much to much more to insight than phony "religion of peace" invocations.

[Tom Bowler]

and Joe Biden is even smarter than they thought. Does that inspire confidence in their judgment?

I feel sicker by the minute.

[Porchlight]

Obama's reply was that he'd be considering it very carefully, but it depended on what our goals are there.

Again he shows he doesn't understand the distinction between campaigning and governing. It's fine to talk about contingencies when you're not in charge. Leaders set goals and well, lead toward them. In domestic policy areas he knows where he wants to go, but has no idea how to get there. As CiC, he doesn't have the faintest idea of either.

[PeterUK]

>a href="http://bagnewsnotes.typepad.com/bagnews/images/Obama-Somali-Garb.jpg">Obama addresses the UN.

[PeterUK]

Obama adresses the UN.

[Jane]

OT: FOX25NewsFOX News is reporting that Deval Patrick will appoint Paul Kirk for the open US Senate Seat -

DIck predicted the same 2 weeks ago. The accompanying dissertation went like this:

If the Kennedy family demands input it will be Paul Kirk. Otherwise it will be Michael Dukakis.

SO perhaps they are not really bowing out.

[bunky]

Thank goodness the Europeans have pledged more combat troops and airlift capability. Oh wait, they don't have any of that.

[Extraneus]

Again he shows he doesn't understand the distinction between campaigning and governing.

True, and obviously the goal of supporting the Afghanistan war is no longer to be elected president, so it's understandable that it may take the team some time to form another goal on this one.

[Not essentially.]

PD, Islam fell to the Enlightenment. Now, huge amounts of 'unearned', note I do not say 'ill-gotten', petroleum revenues have resurrected the most evil parts of its message. Where was Islam going until the world grasped at fossil fuels? Gradually off to the ash heap of religious history, that's where. It is not a sustainable faith.
===================================

[Those Satanic Verses, the dreams of a mad man.]

Ignatz, Muslims pushing world domination are responding to the availability of petrodollar wealth, not to the supremacy of Islam as a guide to life.

How do you explain, under your theory, the passivity that the mass of Muslims felt toward world domination, before the flood of unearned petrodollars started? One may ascribe that passivity to poverty and powerlessness, but maybe that's what a religion like Islam leads to. Building is a surer path to wealth than conquering.
=====================================

[matt]

Re; Pacifist Buddhists.

Exhibit A - Japan - from the introduction of Buddhism to 1945.

Exhibit B - large swathes of Chine over the past 2,000 years

Exhibit C - Korea

Exhibit D - Thai empire 14th - 15th Century

All those nice Vietnamese folks were pretty pacifist too. And don't forget the Hindus. The fact is that it is not religion that is violent, but people.

Religion doesn't kill people. People kill people.

[bgates]

It is not a sustainable faith.

I thought it was a source of comfort and hope for over a billion people.

People kill people.

And some of them do so with the blessing of their religion.

[clarice]

Jane--perhaps the next step is a state legislature move to crown the family with a Senate seat in perpetuity without the bother of elections and with penalties for any close scrutiny of the office holder.

[Jane]

Oh I think they did that a while ago Clarice. WE were not allowed to read the legislation because only 5% of us read legalize.

[bishop]

I think the aggressive character of Islam's founder, and the sentiments embodies in say Suras 5 & 9, for instance, set it apart, That doesn't mean theat Islam is by itself violent, put in practice, it often works out that way. Yes we he had the Inquisitions
and the Crusades, Shinto had it's militant phase, but those are the exception to the rule

[Imagine Islam without the petrodollars. Do you see?]

bgates, a nice point, but the fact that a religious faith is ultimately unsustainable has nothing to with whether it might or might not be a source of comfort and hope for its adherents. I have a huge amount of respect for you, but you are talking apples and pomegranates, here.
================================

[clarice]

OT:I think I helped save a wounded squirrel today just by being around.

The other day I noticed a squirrel on the fence in my yard was moving awkwardly and appeared to have an injured right rear paw.
When I went for my swim today (the weather's really gorgeous still), I noticed it in a corner with its head ducked down and its tail facing me. Usually squirrels take off when they see or hear us but although I swam near it, it didn't move. I was starting to fear it was rabid when it left its spot and moved to the top of the fence and flattened itself down as if fearful of something and trying to become invisible.
A sharp cry made me look up and I saw a hawk circling overhead and calling out. I kept swimming my laps and finally the hawk gave up and flew away. Then the squirrel vanished, too.
You can tell it's fall, the birds are gobbling my just ripe figs, the squirrels are hustling to put away winters stores, the hawks are trying to eat as much of the easy pickings as they can find and soon the birds will start their big trip south.

[bgates]

Imagine Islam without the petrodollars. Do you see?

Looks like a violently expansionist sect that conquers territory from Spain to Indonesia in the name of its founder and its god.

Or maybe you mean that Islam was a once-powerful political system that became complacent, fell behind the West technologically, and is now "ultimately unsustainable". To which I can only imagine the Muslim response would be "thank Allah for the petrodollars, or we'd be as bad off as the Chinese".

[clarice]

bgates, What in the world does that mean?

[Janet]

((Christians who are violent toward or subjugate their neighbors do so in violation of the tenets of their faith and the instructions of the founder of their faith.
Muslims who are violent toward or subjugate their neighbors are obeying the tenets of their faith and the instructions of its founder.))

That about sums it up Ignatz, along with Extraneus, ((The Koran instructs Muslims to be violent. If it didn't, they'd be more peaceful. The Koran itself is the root of much of the world's problems, and that fact should not be sugar-coated. If more people read what's stated in the Koran, by Allah, I think it would contribute much to much more to insight than phony "religion of peace" invocations.))

We are foolish to disregard what the Koran says.

[maryrose]

clarice:
For all the reasons you just described Fall is my favorite season.The trees in Ohio are just starting to turn with beautiful crisp sunny days!

[Ignatz]

--How do you explain, under your theory, the passivity that the mass of Muslims felt toward world domination, before the flood of unearned petrodollars started?--

The majority of Muslims don't particularly take Islam's exhortations to heart, just as in other religions.
Those are the peaceful ones.
Those that do take them seriously are the small committed minority that rules the others and gets things done; just like the Bolsheviks.
Now, Islam may someday drop from the world stage like the Bolsheviks did, but the trick with these types is always making sure they don't take us with them.

[PeterUK]

It's those Saudi Baptists who are the trouble. Minorities again.

[Jim Rhoads a/k/a vjnjagvet]

Questions for all JOMers about Afghanistan:

Reading between the lines, how much input do you think Petraeus has in formulating the latest proposed strategery?

Isn't the McChrystal plan a rework of the Petraeus anti insurgent policy to fit the Afghan situation?

If the answers are "quite a bit" and "yes", wouldn't it be a bit ironic?

[Sara (Pal2Pal)]

Shep just reported that Khadfi, in his speech to the UN, called for an investigation into Lee Harvey [Oswald] and Jack Ruby and the death of JFK.

I feel like I just lost the last 46 years of my life.

[Ignatz]

--Isn't the McChrystal plan a rework of the Petraeus anti insurgent policy to fit the Afghan situation?--

Yes. And the Petreaus policy was a reworking of pretty standard COIN to fit Iraq after he had utilized it in Mosul, early on.
I suspect the intital phase of properly implemented COIN may be successful in Afghanistan.
But I remain unconvinced that we or anyone else is capable of building a nation out of a people who do not seem to wish to be built into anything.

As for irony, it may seem so to us, but I don't think Barry gets irony. Narcissists never do.

[Rick Ballard]

Jim,

The Afghans don't have a source of funds to support a standing army. That's the gaping hole which I believe differentiates it most significantly from Iraq. We just ain't gonna see the "They stand up" part of "as they stand up, we stand down." Toss in the difficulty in moving units cohesively in the north due to terrain (along with the accompanying logistical nightmare) and the differences outweigh the similarities.

It's not impossible for a COIN strategy to succeed but "success" is going to have a very different metric. Hunter/killer teams and Predator wedding party disrupters may be the most cost effective means of achieving and maintaining a semblance of stability.

Plus a decent warlord lease programs, of course. That aspect is nigh unchangeable in the muslim world. Hell, it's almost as bad as Chicago.

[bgates]

Clarice, I'm grasping at what Kim can possibly mean by "ultimately unsustainable", or the comment was that Islam was headed for the ash heap of history before oil was discovered. Yes, the Ottomans and Persians were rulers of a decrepit old civilization that had fallen behind the West; Kim seems to think the only thing that arrested their decline was petrodollars. I think the Muslim world was in the same position as the Chinese at the start of the 20th century. As the Chinese recovered, I don't think Islam can be written off - especially since it has the arguable advantage of that oil money.

[clarice]

Interesting,bgates, because my impression is somewhat opposite. Bear with me. I think if oil had not been discovered the hereditary rulers would not have been allowed to reign for so long nor would those societies be so corrupt and immovable. The sheikhs have in essence bought off everyone and clamped down on progressive change with oil revenue.

In history whwnever rules have made fast money off ecploitation of resources--their own or resources of captured colonies--they suffer set backs. The reason Spain and Portugal were so backward compared to England and France and Germany was all the riches of the New World colonies.

Anyeay, that's y thought.

[Dave (in the People's Banana Republic of MA)]

Clarice, on Monday as I was leaving for work I heard a commotion in the wooded section of my yard along the driveway, so I went over to see what was going on. On one side of the trunk of a large pine was a terrified flying squirrel, breathing heavily. On the other side of the trunk was a red-tailed hawk perched on a sapling, also breathing heavily. I made a loud raspberry noise and the hawk took off.

[clarice]

Two squirrels saved from hawks in one week by JOMers!!Way to go!

[Dave (in the People's Banana Republic of MA)]

Jane: The Pitcher Balks.

[bgates]

Clarice - that's why I threw the "arguable" in there. So you could argue with me. ;)

[Ignatz]

--In history whwnever rules have made fast money off ecploitation of resources--their own or resources of captured colonies--they suffer set backs.--

Absolutely clarice.
Petrodollars create international welfare queens.
How capable Arab or muslim culture is of organic growth at this point I'm not sure, but I do know black gold has had about the same effect on the Saudis as it did on Jethro Bodine.

[Ignatz]

--Two squirrels saved from hawks in one week by JOMers!!--

Or, two hawks and their cute little hawklettes condemned to starvation by JOMers in one week. :p

[clarice]

Well, that's what I think, ignatz.

Argentina is a rich rich land but it never made much of itself because its European settlers came there to exploit those riches, not to settle down and build a new land. In fact, as far as I can tell in Latam,only Costa Rica which was settled by Spanish farmers who intended to stay has devloped durable democratic institutions.

[Montevideo Movie.]

Uruguay does pretty well, c.
================

[I don't much trust single author revelations from God.]

Ignatz, bgates, Puk, ext, and others. Thanks for the feedback. I suspect my vision of Islam is ill informed and naive.
===============================

[clarice]

In another bit of good news today--Iran's only AWACS crashed or blew up or something (conflicting sotries) after an air show yesterday.
Mossad has not commented.

This rather leaves iran deaf, dumb and blind overhead as the streets fill with protestors.

Place your bets.

[hit and run]

Breitbart tweets that http://biggovernment.com/2009/09/23/exclusive-irs-terminating-relationship-with-acorn/>IRS severing ties with ACORN...

[hit and run]

Clarice:
This rather leaves iran deaf, dumb and blind overhead as the streets fill with protestors.

But they still play a mean pinball ... with Obama.

[Extraneus]

From the comments at hit's link:

I wish the IRS would terminate its relationship with me!

Amen, sister.

[bgates]

Kim, I'd say rather generous, if perhaps to a fault.

Costa Rica...has devloped durable democratic institutions.

SSHHHHH! You're going to get them targeted.

[matt]

your eminence, you forget Zen Buddhism, which was practiced widely by the samurai class. Musashi is the epitome of the combination of Zen teachings with combat.

bgates, in the annals of religion, it is the practitioners who act, not the religion. Few religions justify violence except as punishment for specific sins.

One of the few instances where one can differentiate Islam is in several of the suras of the Koran calling for specific violent acts.I always found this troubling.In the Bible, on the other hand, the violence is usually directed as punishment for specific conduct. The Bible is also as much a description of the hejira of the Jewish people and description of their history as a religious document.As such it has all of the violence and drama of any 5,000 year old culture.

Imperfect humans use religion to justify their own ends. It's the message, not the messenger that is important.

[clarice]

True,begates.Hush my mouth!

[Jack is Back!]

Clarice,

Squirrels - never let them in your attic or upper crawl space.

The ones we have in Florida are brown (tanned). Just the other day, my wife captured (on film) a bobcat (lynx lupus) strolling across the 18th fairway to the croquet courts. It was magic. He is one big boy.

Fall is in the air down here - temperatures are down to the mid 80's and the humidity is shrinking to the 70's. Pretty soon we'll have to bring out the trousers to wear.

Today, as I listened to Rush and others, I contemplated the risk to America and our lifestyle since Obama but then realized that the people of Libya, Bolivia, North Korea, Iran, Cuba and Venezuela are examples of where we are headed. Someone noted that we have elected our first Third World Country President.

Hearing his UN apologia today, I am more convinced than ever that he is to liberty and freedom what the anti-christ is to christianity. It is going to take someone with the political strength of a Teddy Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan to
fix this country after all the damage this hoax of a citizen will have perpetrated.

[Ignatz]

--Ignatz, bgates, Puk, ext, and others. Thanks for the feedback. I suspect my vision of Islam is ill informed and naive.--

Kim, I suspect you are just very big hearted.
I mean to say, anyone who can give TCO and cleo the benefit of the doubt obviously can see the good in anyone. :)

[Pofarmer]

But I remain unconvinced that we or anyone else is capable of building a nation out of a people who do not seem to wish to be built into anything.

And, there's the rub. The best we can hope for, in the intermediate term, is to NOT let Afghanistan become a base for terrorists again. That's going to be hard enough.

[Pofarmer]

It is going to take someone with the political strength of a Teddy Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan to
fix this country after all the damage this hoax of a citizen will have perpetrated.

Not to mention a pummeling of the MSM.

[Jim Rhoads a/k/a vjnjagvet]

RIck:

The "stand up stand down" problem might be taken care of by baksheesh to select warlords -- kinda like they likely did with the Iraqi warlords while separating them from their former Al Queda brothers. This has also worked somewhat in Colombia as well without a show of conventional troops.

Interestingly, BHO should have less problem with this than most because of his experience with the concept in Chicago.

[Jim Rhoads a/k/a vjnjagvet]

Just so, Po. The objective there must be limited to something achievable.