How Sick Is Health Care Reform?

Dick Morris says that ObamaCare dies in New Jersey and especially Virginia:

But it is the election in Virginia that probably has more to say to marginal Democratic congressmen considering how to vote on health-care reform.

Obviously, Christie's victory is a body blow to Obama after Corzine outspent the Republican by five-to-one and the president put on a serious push for the incumbent. Corzine's defeat sends a message that the nation is moving sharply against Obama.

But Virginia results are the most important. More than 80 Democratic congressmen and 20 senators come from states that John McCain carried in 2008. For them, the sudden switch in Virginia, a swing state that Obama actually carried, heralds tough political times ahead.

...Until last night, Democratic moderates, the so-called blue dogs, could bask in the light of their candidate's success in 2008. But now they must hear hoof beats behind them. The party discipline on which Obama depends to pass a health-care program that Americans reject by 42 percent for, 55 percent against (Rasmussen again) will only work if beleaguered Democratic incumbents can wrap themselves in Obama's cloak and tough out the popular criticism. But the limits of Obama's drawing power are readily apparent in the Republicans' 20-point victory in Virginia and the race in New Jersey.

The WSJ reports that ObamaCare, or anyway, BaucusCare, isn't dead; it's just moving veeerrrry slowly:

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Senate Democrats, hampered by a delayed cost estimate for Senate health-care legislation and a shortening window of time, indicated that Congress may not be able to pass a health-care bill this year.

Aides say that the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office will not finish a cost estimate for Democratic health-care legislation by the end of the week. Senate Democrats are waiting for the estimate before unveiling the bill and bringing it to the Senate floor for debate.

Asked whether Congress may not be able to pass health-care legislation this year, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) said Democrats would "do this the right way, not the fast way."

Back when he was still President Obama wanted legislation before the August recess.  August 2009.

Comments

[bunky]

The goal should be to delay the big votes until spring '10. That puts it into the election cycle.

[Jack is Back!]

What blue dog or any dem from a red state is going to risk their chances in 2010 by voting for the two current Obamanations? IIRC, there are over 50 seats the Dems own that were won in red states by less than 2% margin. (I read that some place). That plus the repubs voting bloc is all it takes to make this thing go away until after 2010.

Me thinks its dead as we know it but there is a possible something but nothing radical or taxing. Just something to call a victory.

[Dave (in MA)]

OR...

They want opponents to think it's dead in order to catch them off guard.

[bunky]

This thing is not dead by any means. Delay must be the strategy, since its all we have.

[Neo]

I wish they would put a fork in this zombie.

Gus Grissom: You've got it all wrong ... The issue here is monkey.
John Glenn: What?
Gus Grissom: Us. We are the monkey.
Deke Slayton: What Gus is saying is that we're missing the point.

The entire country, especially as embodied in the stock market, is waiting for the unknowns (most especially the taxes) that come with ObamaCare (and "Cap-n-Tax") to go away. Until then life goes on at a slower pace which means unemployment continues to drift upward.

Alan Shepard: Gordo! ... Why don't you just fix your little problem and light this candle ?

Plainly, if ObamaCare (and "Cap-n-Tax") went away, the recovery would probably takeoff full force.

Right now, the Democrats in Congress are the only thing keeping the economy from racing ahead.

[Tom Bowler]

I think the back room deal between the White House and the pharmaceutical lobby is the signal that Obama/Reid/Pelosi will push health care reform relentlessly. In that deal pharma got a supposed $80 billion limit in costs that would be passed to the industry, and in return agreed to kick in $150 million to promote the legislation. Whatever that might turn out to be.

The strategy is to create or cultivate special interest groups and milk them for whatever support they can provide -- money, muscle, PR, whatever -- through a combination of threats and bribery. All with taxpayer dollars of course.

I can't think of a single thing Obama/Reid/Pelose have done, or plan to do, that doesn't fit this pattern. They're convinced that the combination of voters depending on public health care and the industry having to pony up in order to survive in a government controlled industry will keep the Democrats in power for a generation, at least.

They will not go away unless we make them go away. If 2010 turns out like 1994 and Democrats lose control of congress, we shouldn't expect Obama to follow Bill Clinton's example and become the centrist he pretended to be on the campaign trail. I don't think he's bright enough.

I don't know if any of them are bright enough. I read the Ruth Marcus column this morning in which she said the VA and NJ elections signal nothing. She launched into a history of elections to prove it, never once mentioning health care, deficits, bailouts, taxes. Nothing about why yesterday's elections might have turned out the way they did.

[Rocco]

I think both parties better take notice or they're going to find themselves on the outside looking in.

[Jack is Back!]

Tom,

4 digits, 1993 - Deja vu all over again!

Look it up.

[Old Lurker]

Neo, it's not just the health care taxes that worry the market. The Bush tax cuts about to expire are worrisome too, even though at least they can be quantified more than the new ones can.

[bgates]

ObamaCare...isn't dead; it's just moving veeerrrry slowly

A central tenet of ObamaCare is that things in that condition should be killed.

[Thomas Collins]

Let's empanel a Death Panel for ObamaCare and Cap 'n Trade!

[MW]

Love it!!!

"Joe Wilson Proposes Forcing Congress Onto Government Health Insurance Plan

Republican Rep. Joe Wilson proposed an amendment Wednesday that would force all members of Congress to receive health insurance coverage through the government-run plan proposed in the House's reform bill."

lun

[bad]

I can think of a better use for Death Panels....IYKWIMAIKTYD

[MW]

@bad

now that's some funny sh*t!!

thanks for the laugh.

[Boatbuilder]

TB--it's not that he's not bright enough to move to the center. It's that that's not who he is. The man is a dedicated socialist at his core. There is nothing in his background or his political career which suggests anything else.
Clinton is and was, first and foremost, a politician; there was nothing doctrinaire about his philosophy, so he moved to the center when he realized that was where he had to go to get elected. I don't think that Obama can do that--it would be abandoning who he is.
Obama never really espoused "centrist" positions during the campaign--just very vague ones. It was the media and the electorate who wanted to see him as a centrist, and did. But there is nothing that he has ever said which would put him closer to the center than, say, John Edwards. He's a lefty, to the core.

[Wellescent Health Forums]

If the Democrats really want to stop dropping in popularity, they have to move on from health care quickly. While they will likely pass something, it is at this point a compromise from their original principles just to claim success.

If they do get a chance to move on and don't hang themselves with health care by dragging out passage of the reform bill, then they can attempt some efforts with the economy and their success or failure in this area will more likely define their chances for success in 2010.

[Tom Bowler]

JiB,
I like your optimism. Just not sure I share it, though I will say the longer Obama stays hard left the more optimistic I'll be. I noticed this morning that he went to Wisconsin to talk about the mess George Bush left him. I'm hoping he'll continue to do that, and if he does I'll be positively bursting with optimism by November 2010.

Boatbuilder,
He is lefty to the core, no doubt. I question that it's a very bright thing to be.

[glasater]

The Judge is filling in for Glen Beck--out with appendicitis--yesterday and most likely for a time--but a guest on the show mentioned that the Death Panel aspect of healthcare reform was in the TARP fund legislation.......

[Danube of Thought]

The House is gonna vote on Saturday, and my guess is they wouldn't go forward with it unless they had the votes.

[clarice]

James Lewis at AT calls it a kamikaze move by a party that knows it's influence is ebbing. Call every blue dog in your area and raise hell.You can be sure the Dems are promising those who lose in 2010 jobs if they vote for this pig.