On To The Senate

The zombie health reform bill heads to the Senate; the Politico tells us what it means.

My stray thought du jour - the taxes on the House bill kick in by 2011 but the public won't see any benefits until 2013 (See CBO).  That means that Republicans can try to nationalize the 2010 and 2012 elections and turn them into referendums on a health care plan that could still be stopped.

Now, maybe that is precisely the hope of Pelosi and Obama - not only can they argue that health reform was passed and the sky didn't fall, but they will have also defined the battlefield for 2012.

The good news is that there will be plenty of time for a vigorous public debate, as well as a few elections.  All we have to do is trust the judgment of the American electorate and the communication skills of the Republican and conservative leadership (yike!).

Comments

[clarice]

I think your optimism is catching..HEH--But nationalizing the election and making it about health care when we now have some actual (not just in O's head) bill before us, is not what I'd want as a Dem.

[bunky]

For a Zombie- it has alot of life. Something is passing the Senate- with RINO help.

[Ranger]

The key question is, when is the primary in Nevada. Reid will keep this alive long enough to keep the nutroots off his back, then once he is clear of a challenge from the left, kill this thing and run hard right to save his seat. At this point I doubt it will work, but stranger things have happened.

[Rob Crawford]

All we have to do is trust the judgment of the American electorate and the communication skills of the Republican and conservative leadership

We are so boned.

[Ranger]

BTW, here is first look at the Republican communications efforts:

http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NmM4ZGYzZjA1ZmRmYjY0MDVjNjliODQ2MTYzZjllNDU=>'The Good News? Next November, Voters Will Be the Ones Making a Choice.'

[Jim Ryan]

TV CAMPAIGN AD 2012:

[DISHEVELED STONER ON SCREEN, EARNEST LOOK ON FACE]

STONER: If you're like me, you like to do your art, get baked and go to shows. Where I work is, I wait tables three nights a week and one lunch. There's not a lot left over after expenses.

And now the Republicans want to take away my Obamacare. Your Obamacare. Our Obamacare.

Don't let them do it. This is about social justice. This is about your health, your art, your freedom. It's called freedom. And yo, respect. Things Republicans always seem to have a problem with.

Vote Democratic this November. Or at least try to see if you can squeeze it in.

[hit and run]

Left in the PUK thread too...but here goes,http://thevimh.blogspot.com/2009/11/listening-to-peter-bocking_09.html>New post at thevimh with songs featuring PUK passed along by his friend Tony Glaser.

Thanks Clarice for getting him to dig those up!

[Appalled]

If they spend the next year talking up healthcare, and unemployment continues to be up -- or all the new taxes (added to the expiration of the Bush tax cuts) starts downturn #2 -- then these guys are going to be killed at the polls. The real problem is that the American people weren't that interested in healthcare, but they are worried about the economy.

Obama needs to ask W about the results of concentrating endlessly on something the US citizenry has decided is not important. He runs the risks of getting himself into the mother of all quagmires, here.

[Jane]

The only thing anyone should be saying is in the next election is: "Where are the jobs".

[Thomas Collins]

Don't underestimate ObamaTeam's political skills. ObamaTeam is quite capable of slicing and dicing its way to a victorious ObamaHealthCareSalad, as TeamHillary will I'm sure acknowledge after last year's Dem caucuses.

[narciso]

He didn't have any responsibilities then, unlike small town mayors. It's arguable whether he has any now, or it's all delegated to Turbo Tim and Ron Bloom. But he has to deliver and we've already passed
the 1983 inflection point on unenployment six months early. I don't see beach replenishment, one of the local offerings for the stimulus, being such a winner. Charmin's Charlie, already pulling a Gibson,
"Obama, never heard of him" and he's going
down regardless.

[Ranger]

The question isn't "can they get some form of Health Care Reform passed," the question is, can the survive the political fall out from it.

1 in 4 Medicare participants have Medicare Advantage insurance. It looks like eliminating Medicare Advantage is a key part of any plan that passes. That is a huge block of votes to alienate. Add to that personal mandates, and you've created a huge block of people who are either unhappy, or scared about what full implementation of this thing will mean.

Obama and the Dems run the risk of creating a huge "one issue" voting block in 2010 and 2012.

[Ranger]

Also, making the 2012 election a reforendum on Healthcare destroys a key Obama strenght: His likeability. People like him, they don't like his policies. So, make the election about his policies.

[Sue]

Remember, a 3 letter word...J-O-B-S...

[Dave (in MA)]

Ranger, I read that giving MediGap a monopoly on supplemental Medicare coverage was the means by which the Donks were able to secure the AARP endorsement of this abomination. AARP gets about half of its operating budget from MediGap royalties. They took a bribe.

[Jack is Back!]

Cao, the new bar height for bi-partisanship.

[Papa Ray]

After Obama gives 20 million illegals citizenship or at least keep them from being arrested and deported and of course his ACORN buds and their affiliates get every Black and Latino out again to vote...

And of course all of the votes from people shipped into states, or even alive or that don't have identification or valid signatures.

Then the democrats will make sure of continuing the downward spiral of our Republic into communism.

But that is when Americans will say something like this: "If our votes don't count and our voting system is corrupt, then we will find another way to protect our Republic".

Papa Ray

The Second Amendment is a doomsday provision, one designed for those exceptionally rare circumstances where all other rights have failed - where the government refuses to stand for reelection and silences those who protest; where courts have lost the courage to oppose, or can find no one to enforce their decrees. However improbable these contingencies may seem today, facing them unprepared is a mistake a free people get to make only once.
2009 Judge Alex Kozinski

[Fresh Air]

Don't underestimate ObamaTeam's political skills.

So far, they haven't shown any, save getting Zero elected. Remember, we are dealing with a pathological narcissist. It's all about him. He will throw all of them out of his lifeboat to save himself.

I think you're looking at a 40- to 60-seat wipeout for the Mediacrats, regardless of what Zero does. He isn't on the ballot, and liberals aren't going to the ramparts for "affordable health care." Conservatives, however, will have to be shoveled into urns before they turn down the chance to vote the Socialists out,

[Gregory Koster]

Tom, agreeing that it's dumb to be complacent about Team Obama's political skills, in 07-08 they could run as outsiders. Can't do that in 11-12. The press is a diminishing asset. The continual stumbles e.g. giving a "shout-out" to a conference pal instead of bothering about those pesky deads at Fort Hood, the grab at the Olympics, accepting the Nobel, are all going to add up.

Quin HIlyer has a piece at the AMERICAN SPECTATOR saying ease off on Cao, he has to vote his district, and anti-abortion is vital to Cao. Makes a certain amount of sense right up to the point where Hilyer admist Cao already voted against the stimulus and cap-and-tax. Those votes are enough to sink Cao in his district. I'd also like to start an Intrade contract about how long the abortion prevention safeguards will stay in Obamacare, but I doubt if I'd get anyone to take the other side.

Finally, given that Obamacare doesn't start for several years, but the taxes start right away, what happens to the taxes paid in should the nation succeed in repealing this monstrosity?

[peter]

It's a sorry state of affairs when Joe Lieberman ( who looks like a morph of Alan Hale, Jr. and his little buddy Gilligan) is the finger in the dike holding back socialist health noncare.

[Fresh Air]

...what happens to the taxes paid in should the nation succeed in repealing this monstrosity?

I'm thinking we could buy a lot of rope, tar and feathers.

[Jane]

I'm loving watching the fall of the dominoes in Berlin - and not the least bit surprised the Presidebt declined to be there.

[narciso]

It's being stripped out by the conference as we speak. I knew this was a scam, they should have called it the "Stupid Amendment"
Hilyer i've had a growing dislike for since
he went all "Shep and Geraldo" on Katrina, and he's been luke warm on the tea parties
and other populist elements.

[Thomas Collins]

Well, Fresh Air and Gregory Koster, I appreciate your counterpoints, but so far Obama has, among other things, (i) gotten a Stimulus Bill that he has used to stimulate his public sector supporters, (ii) begun the process of emasculating the US as a credible nuclear power by zeroing out the Reliable Replacement Warhead Program (I realize this can be "unzeroed" in the future, but I haven't seen a lot of outrage about the zeroing out, even in the non-Obama approved media), (iii) apologized abjectly for the US and bowed to the Saudi King (thus furthering the conciliatory internationalist goal of tying down the US to "the international community"), and (iv) kept ObamaCare rolling along (wavering US Senators better hope they don't have embarrassing sealed records, divorce or otherwise). He doesn't need the Senate on Cap and Trade, because he can have the EPA do the deed by administrative regulations. If this constitutes Obama floundering politically, I would hate to see what Obama political success looks like.

[Sue]

Is vnjagvet around? I have a question about jurisdiction. I was under the assumption that Texas would retain jurisdiction over the murder of the civilian at Ft. Hood. Someone over at Hot Air just burst my bubble. Says that the military retains jurisdiction unless they give it up. Anyone know?

Does anyone ever get a notice that says: sorry we cannot accept this data? I don't have any links, so what is causing it?

[Frau Fernseher]

Hilyer at least reminds us that Cao is a devout Catholic who, different from Kerry and Dodd, lives his faith. It is painful to think of Cao's rude awakening when he realizes that Obama actually meant that an unwanted pregnancy is a punishment.

BTW Shouldn't the death count at Ft. Hood include the unborn child?

[hit and run]

Does anyone ever get a notice that says: sorry we cannot accept this data? I don't have any links, so what is causing it?

I got that yesterday.

[Frau Fernseher]

A sister-in-law in Germany phoned this morning and said the celebrations in Berlin were broadcast all day. It was raining hard, and the dignitaries arriving had an umbrella held for them. Hillary! was the only one my s-i-law observed who held her own umbrella. WTHeck? Was this a feminist gesture or did she not want to be overlooked? (BTW the Germans have not been informed that Hillary! is "the smartest woman in the world.") The German media felt that relations were strained between the two countries because of the GM-Opel deal. GovMotors is not winning hearts and minds from here to Russia.

[Frau Fernseher]

sue & hit - I get that when I've stayed a long time without refreshing. If you refresh, you can then post

[Sue]

Frau,

That is how I got it to post. I just didn't know why it was doing it. Thanks for the info.

[Rick Ballard]

TC,

We had a brief discussion re Palin's populism the other day. I believe that a populism bounded as was this fellows could serve as the basis for a coalition of moderates and all but the most extreme fringes of the conservative and libertarian blocs. It's amusing to note how many of the issues faced by TR remain 'alive' at one hundred years on. He would certainly recognize the malefactors of great wealth at a casual glance.

[Thomas Collins]

Thanks, Rick, for reminding me that we once had a President who was a populist willing to take on the money folks yet was committed to our republican form of government and willing to defend it overseas, not apologize for it. It will be interesting to see whether Palin or another GOPer adopts a TR approach for the 2012 race.

[clarice]

Drudge:
REVEALED BY CBSNEWS TONIGHT: OBAMA'S PLAN FOR AFGHANISTAN; send four combat brigades plus thousands more support troops... close to the 40,000 that McChrystal wanted...

[Extraneus]

What a surprise. If you assume it has nothing whatsoever to do with strategy or national interest, but is all simply politics, this is the only decision that makes sense. Anything else exposes him personally, which would make no sense at all.

Just boob bait, and it isn't like the libs will care. They're getting theirs.

[Sara (Pal2Pal)]

Feds seek 30 year sentence for William Jefferson

[Ranger]

close to the 40,000 that McChrystal wanted...

Posted by: clarice | November 09, 2009 at 06:24 PM

Actually, from what I've read, there were actually three options:

Low Risk: 80K troop plus up.

Medium Risk: 40K troop plus up.

High Risk: 20K troop plus up.

So, not surprise that Obama took the "middle road." But that is still a risk. Should things go bad fast in Pakistan, or should the Taliban learn and adapt at a rate faster than they have in the past, we could be right back in this same place a year to a year and half from now.

[Extraneus]

Gee. The Stupak amendment may not be the final word.

Obama: I think that there are strong feelings on both sides. And what that tells me is that there needs to be some more work before we get to the point where we’re not changing the status quo.

[hit and run]

That's a beauty,Extraneus.

Can't we just make the same argument about the overall health care reform issue and call the whole thing off?

What?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32810378/ns/politics-health_care_reform/>Oh,yeah.

"I will not accept the status quo. Not this time. Not now," the president told an estimated 15,000 people during a rally that had every feel of a campaign event, right down to chants of "Fired up, ready to go!" and "Yes, we can!"

Some status quos are more equal than others.

[Jim Rhoads a/k/a vjnjagvet]

Bully, Rick. Bully.

[Rick Ballard]

TC,

It wouldn't be so very hard to promote a TR "can do" energy independence program that would surpass the Panama Canal in vision. A nice gas pipeline coupled with an accelerated nuke construction program (say 80 pebble beds) would provide the actual real, honest to goodness jobs that the Ditherer in Chief lies about.

Oddly enough, it wouldn't even require government expenditure or mandates to implement either. The removal of a few regulatory roadblocks by Executive Order would do the trick - it could even be painted bright green as part of the marketing plan.

[matt]

"so that government of the morons, by the morons, and for the morons shall not perish from this earth."

Nancy Pelosi
November 7, 2009

[matt]

Rick, The UK government just threw its weight behind a dozen new nuclear plants throughout the Kingdom.