Simply Hire The Prescient Regulators

David Leonhardt of the Times grapples with a fundamental problem of regulation - why do we suppose the regulators will be smarter than the rest of us?

Fed Missed This Bubble. Will It See a New One?
By DAVID LEONHARDT

If only we’d had more power, we could have kept the financial crisis from getting so bad.

That has been the position of Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, and other regulators. It explains why Mr. Bernanke and the Obama administration are pushing Congress to give the Fed more authority over financial firms.

So let’s consider what an empowered Fed might have done during the housing bubble, based on the words of the people who were running it.

In 2004, Alan Greenspan, then the chairman, said the rise in home values was “not enough in our judgment to raise major concerns.” In 2005, Mr. Bernanke — then a Bush administration official — said a housing bubble was “a pretty unlikely possibility.” As late as May 2007, he said that Fed officials “do not expect significant spillovers from the subprime market to the rest of the economy.”

The fact that Mr. Bernanke and other regulators still have not explained why they failed to recognize the last bubble is the weakest link in the Fed’s push for more power. It raises the question: Why should Congress, or anyone else, have faith that future Fed officials will recognize the next bubble?

Mr.Leonhardt is far too modest to laud Times columnist and Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman for his compelling insight.  Krugman himself is only too pleased to tell all and sundry that he called the housing bubble, so let me flash back to his cogent analysis from May 2006:

As I summarized it awhile back, we became a nation in which people make a living by selling one another houses, and they pay for the houses with money borrowed from China.

Now that game seems to be coming to an end. We're going to have to find other ways to make a living — in particular, we're going to have to start selling goods and services, not just I.O.U.'s, to the rest of the world, and/or replace imports with domestic production. And adjusting to that new way of making a living will take time.

Will we have that time? Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, contends that what's happening in the housing market is "a very orderly and moderate kind of cooling." Maybe he's right. But if he isn't, the stock market drop of the last two days will be remembered as the start of a serious economic slowdown.

Maybe it will all end badly, or maybe it won't.  Good to know, and as the urologist said, this too shall pass.  True genius is timeless in its simplicity. 

Comments

[Danube of Thought]

And as the fly said when he walked across the mirror, "That's one way of looking at it."

[Charlie (Colorado)]

why do we suppose the regulators will be smarter than the rest of us?

Why I'm a libertarian and capitalist in less than 20 words.

[bgates]

Oh, TM.

We know the regulators will be smarter than us because they will come from the educated class.

[Jim Miller]

Paul Krugman was right in a prediction? Well, I suppose it had to happen some time. But it is still more than a bit shocking to actually see it.

[RichatUF]

Related item in this speech where Bernanke lays out his case that low rates weren't the problem.

I'll trust the regulators if they have sharply creased pants.

[Captain Ned]

This state-level regulator was also calling foul in 2006. My trigger was commercial construction with signs out front making it clear that it was speculative development.

The FDIC and us state-level regulators saw this coming, warned about it, yelled about it, and screamed in the face of the Fed, OCC, and OTS after the Supreme Court said that we could not extend our consumer protection laws to customers of Federally-chartered banks (banks with National, N.A., or FSB in their legal name).

There are many Cassandras out there among the fraternity of bank examiners. We can tell the politicians what we're seeing and how bad it will get, but the politicians get to make the decisions. Luckily, my state listened to us field staff and we've been #49 or #50 in foreclosure rates since this mess started.

@ Charlie(Colorado)

I'm a regulator and a libertarian. Yes, it is possible.

[Old Lurker]

Welcome aboard, Capn Ned.

[narciso]

The reasons are important, the CRA revisions that enabled this avalanche of subprime paper, abetted by HUD, packaged by Goldman and AIG, things left out of Leonhardt's account

[Frau Sprengstoff]

"... bank examiners. We can tell the politicians what we're seeing and how bad it will get, but the politicians get to make the decisions.
Shades of 2004 when Maxine and Barney belittled and threatened the regulators who warned about Freddie and Fannie. Pfui!

[Old Lurker]

And while all that was going on, Frau, the REALLY smart guys at Harvard were making gambles on interest rate swaps in their gazillion dollar endowment, leading to a cash crisis that cost them hugely to unwind. So let's bring the president of Harvard at that time, Larry Summers into the WH to guide economic policy. Yes that will fix it all.

[stevesturm]

I remain bewildered by liberals wanting to give more power to government bureaucrats despite example after example after example of said bureaucrats having screwed things up.

[Old Lurker]

Though as many articles about that bad derivative bet at Harvard as there have been in the financial press (everybody enjoys reading about money problems at rich Harvard), while it happened on his watch, I don't recall reading that Summers had any role in it. Just to be fair...

But if anyone has seen a link, I'd enjoy reading it.

[Old Lurker]

Nevermind...I found plenty of links on Google pointing fingers and naming names on the risks they took, and the losses they incurred.

[Extraneus]

Guess who's prognosticating?

Democrats took comfort in analyzing the case-by-case fallout from the Tuesday and Wednesday announcements, which saw incumbent Sens. Dorgan and Chris Dodd of Connecticut disclose their decisions to retire rather than face potentially difficult reelections, Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter declining a reelection bid and Michigan Lt. Gov. John Cherry quitting his gubernatorial race before it even started.

“When you look at these races individually, our overall net position may have improved, particularly given that this is a bad year to be an incumbent,” said Democratic strategist Anita Dunn, the former Obama White House communications director. “On the micro level, none of these, with the possible exception of North Dakota, are all that damaging.”

[Ignatz]

--Paul Krugman was right in a prediction?--

Yes he was right in 2006 when it was already clear to many of us in real estate that we were headed for trouble.
However he was somewhat less than helpful in 01 and 02 when he was advocating the creation of ..............a housing bubble.
Typically brilliant advice from Ken Lay's favorite economist.

[narciso]

Surely she can't be serious, what is the up wave she is expecting, health benefits that won't kick in for four years, the wonders of
the stimulus

[RichatUF]

Ooops, should have read the article first. Leonhardt makes mention of the Bernanke speech with "was a spirited defense of the Fed’s interest rate policy, complete with slides and formulas, like (pt - pt*) > 0". Benanke was defending himself from Taylor's criticism so of course it would have focused on interest rate policy and specifically the use of the Taylor Rule (using current quarter CPI data) as a way to have prevented the housing bubble.

He and his colleagues fell victim to the same weakness that bedeviled the engineers of the Challenger space shuttle, the planners of the Vietnam and Iraq Wars, and the airline pilots who have made tragic cockpit errors. They didn’t adequately question their own assumptions. It’s an entirely human mistake.

Good grief. Gassuian copula, navelgaze away.

Which is why it is likely to happen again.

What’s missing from the debate over financial re-regulation is a serious discussion of how to reduce the odds that the Fed — however much authority it has — will listen to the echo chamber when the next bubble comes along. A simple first step would be for Mr. Bernanke to discuss the Fed’s recent failures, in detail. If he doesn’t volunteer such an accounting, Congress could request one.

It's nice to see that the Fed is getting most of the blame-heaven forbid Congress get any or the parliament of regulators who had authority and oversight responsibilities (at both the state and federal level).

Alot of it was done in SIVs and other off-balance sheet partnerships, domiciled in the Caribbean, all to make Washington regulators happy, all out of the watchful gaze of the Feds all knowing eye, and with the Greenspan promise viz. LTCM, if the Wall Street sharpies fucked up too badly, the Fed would provide the required aid. And the stuff that Wall Street didn't get a hold of, Washington did, through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which kept democrat politicians (and their boyfriends) employed in well paid sinecures and democrat politicians' campaign warchests full. And if the Washington crew fucked up too badly, not to worry, Fannie and Freddie had an "implicit" guarantee that makes it all ok.

[Clarice]

Another not too bright one--Coakley:LUN

I'm told on FNC tonight Kristol said internals show Brown slightly ahead in internal polling.

[narciso]

On that page, is a link to yet another AP story Pentagon study on Gitmo detainee recidivism, now at 20%

[Extraneus]

We should cut her some slack, because it would be unprecedentedly historic to have a woman senator from Massachusetts.

[Rick Ballard]

Rich,

Great comment. I'm glad you brought up Wall Streets aggressive copula-tion of MBS. We really shouldn't leave out the three monkeys of credit rating - Wall Street could never have sold the used toilet paper MBS without those solid AAA ratings issued in exchange for very modest sums tendered by the underwriters. And, lastly, where would we all be today without the biggest purchaser of that other Wall Street wunderkind product - CDS. AIG deserves a special round of applause for selling Goldman Sachs precisely the type of product necessary for GS to truly screw the dear American taxpayer.

Now, all I need is a little chart showing the Feds responsibility to oversee Wall Street gluttons, thieves and whores and I'll be ready to discuss how Greenspan and Bernanke dropped the ball.

[jimmyk]

Paul Krugman was right in a prediction?

Jim M, TM's point is that Krugman straddled the fence. He didn't predict anything, he just laid out two scenarios, one of which had to come true.

[Rob Crawford]

I'm a regulator and a libertarian. Yes, it is possible.

*snort*

I think you missed the point of being a libertarian. Really -- you're not any smarter than the rest of us.

[jimmyk]

why do we suppose the regulators will be smarter than the rest of us?

Whether or not they are smarter than the rest of us, the real problem is that they are not as smart as they think they are. They think they can make things better, but more often than not they create more problems than they solve. They operate under the same illusion as central planners everywhere.

[Rick Ballard]

On the lies, damned lies and statistics front - Friday's job data may well show the greenest of shoots. It just ain't so - the revisions to the December Hospital Insurance component of Social Security "contributions" showed the highest downward revision in history. The HI component is 2.9% of every dollar in wage and salary paid. There's no cap. There was a 4% increase from November to December last year. This year there is a 7% decline. The year over year decline was 13%.

[RichatUF]

And to cheer everyone up, we are all going to die anyway.

[Ignatz]

I still maintain all the sharpies and squids in the world can't cause the damage that occurred without free money in the first place. And free money largely comes from the Fed doing what it should never have been charged with; regulating unemployment.

[MikeS]

I have no doubt that insisting that borrowers have some capacity to actually repay mortgages would have done much to help lenders.

But the real problem is the international recession that preceded the financial crisis.

 

This excelent article reminds us of the recession's root causes.

[RichatUF]

Ignatz-

The "free money" was also found in securitization and work arounds for Basel-2.

MikeS-

That's always a good piece to have on hand.

[Neo]

I can just see the Fed calling the next bubble. There will be months of investigations after we all find out that they told their friends hours ahead of their intervention into the markets so they could unwind their positions. We're talking about the difference of billions of dollars with mere minutes of a heads-up.

[Neo]

Paul Krugman was right in a prediction?
Damn, the guy has predicted 9 or the last 2 recessions, so he is bound to get it right sooner or later

[Ignatz]

--The "free money" was also found in securitization and work arounds for Basel-2.--

Rich,
Securitization and work arounds have existed in one form or another for time immemorial; there is nothing new under the sun.
My point is when money is available to pick up with a wheel barrow, people are much less careful with it and the smart set finds a way to grab fistfulls of it and leave behind a mess.
When the supply of dollars is appropriate people tend to take care of it and don't lend it on margin to paupers in 1929, or bid revenueless, profitless .coms to 100 billion market caps or lend $500,000 to a guy making $12 an hour to buy a $200,000 house.
It all starts and ends with the Fed doing its job of providing a stable currency.
If it does the slicksters can only run relatively confined cons.
If it doesn't the result will always be a system wide mess.

[AL]

Bubbles (financial and consequently economical) are created by oversupply of money(capital). No one in history of capitalism figured out how governments or Central Banks could prevent it. And for very good reason: government and Central Banks supply (create) less than 10% of money (so-called M0 money). The rest 90+% are created by private banks. And bankers are regularly got carried away, and start lending money to borrowers incapable to return it back.

Government or Central Bank indeed could easily disrupt tight equilibrium of working financial market and economy, and dive-nose the economy into recession. But it is not much government could do if bankers like crazy overleverage M0 money and irresponsibly lend it right and left.

[Rick Ballard]

"But it is not much government could do if bankers like crazy overleverage M0 money and irresponsibly lend it right and left."

Well, Geithner at the NY Fed, did try to cover up the fact that tax payer money was used to fund the AIG payoff of the thieving whores at Goldman Sachs at 100 cents on the dollar. I know that most people find it difficult to believe that the "educated class" on Wall Street are as totally bereft of ethics or morals as any cursory examination of their abrogation of fiduciary responsibility reveals because they are quite good at maintaining a thin facade of respectability.

I find it amusingly silly to focus on the Fed's failures when the Fed is actually a Siamese twin, joined hip to shoulder with the Wall Street "elite scum" who will perform any imaginable act for money.

Except taking responsibility, of course.

[Tom Bowler]

I remain bewildered by liberals wanting to give more power to government bureaucrats despite example after example after example of said bureaucrats having screwed things up.

That's the whole point actually. With government bureaucrats royally screwing up the works, lobbyists and campaign contributors will be coming out of the woodwork, paying princely sums to anybody that might exempt their special interests from the worst of it. A congressional bonanza!

[narciso]

So, it looks like they are willing to throw Michael Leiter 'under the bus' and keep Napolitano, because she has those skills, according to the NY Daily News, focusing on his ski vacation, hello, who didn't cut their vacation short again

[Danube of Thought]

It's time to bone up a bit on public choice theory, which earned a Nobel in economics for James Buchanan back in the day. The general Idea is that there is no reason at all to believe that just because a decsion is made by a public official, it must therefore have been made in a disinterested manner and in the public nterest.

[Old Lurker]

Morning, all.

LUN is a good piece up on AT.

[Clarice]

National review reports more skullduggery in the DoJ civil rights division--this time so bad that a liberal judge took the unprecedented step of sanctioning two lawyers (same as the black panther case nixers) PERSONALLY.

LUN

[Jane]

And of course Clarice, those sanctions come out of our pockets.

[Clarice]

Interesting, no? I wish I had a hotline where the remaining honest lawyers still at DoJ could report the shennanigans over there.

During the Bush administration, everytime a desk was moved in the Civil Rights Division the WaPo wrote about it on the front page with broad hints the adminsitration was reverting to slavery. It's clear that division and the AG are playing with racial reparations under a variety of ploys and the place is staffed with zealots.

[rse]

OL-

That really was excellent. Sounds like Gore is worried that the jig is up. Thank goodness the weather can't be stonewalled like the MSM.

LUN is a Victor Davis Hanson at his best.

[Old Lurker]

Right back at you, rse. The VDH was very good too. Thanks

[Porchlight]

OT,

Now he tells us:

Nelson: We should have waited on health care

Despite making you want to smack Nelson upside the head, it's a fairly informative piece. Nelson expects a bill in February. Will Obama really wait that long to schedule the SOTU victory speech? My understanding is that it is usually mid-late January (Wiki says typically last Tuesday in January).

If the bill does pass in Feb and Obama does wait until then to make the speech, it is going to give a new depth of meaning to "transparency," as in "transparently politically expedient."

[narciso]

There's a reaaon Steyn, calls him 'this twisted cornhusk of a man' we need a new word
to describe this gall, chutzpah doesn't quite
cover it, I'd volunteer something in Spanish, but it's a family friendly blog

[Jane]

You should read Karl Rove in the WSJ today too, as he talks about how Obama is going to pretend to get frugal but he already stole all the cash.

[pagar]

The American Spectator has some thoughts on the GOP Senators and their handling of the health care fraud bill.

"What many Republican senators still don't seem to understand is that the health-care fight isn't merely one fight in a larger war; it is the war"

[pagar]

The American Spectator has some thoughts on the failure of GOP Senators to stop the Healthcare Fraud bill.

"What many Republican senators still don't seem to understand is that the health-care fight isn't merely one fight in a larger war; it is the war."

[Danube of Thought]

It didn't get a great deal of play in the press, the the D.C. Circuit on Tuesday issued a marvelous decision on detainees and habeas corpus (it is discussed here, with a link to the text of the opinion).

Among other things, the opinion says don't give us this crap about vague treaties or international laws and customs. It also says the government in a habeas proceeding need only show by a preponderance of the evidence (51%) that the guy should be held, not beyond a reasonable doubt.

And it's written by Janice Rogers Brown, my hero, whom I hope one day to see on the Supreme Court. I should live so long.

[Danube of Thought]

Connecticut is not at all happy with Joe Lieberman.

(Boy, do I love this linking stuff. Thanks again, Jane.)

[Jane]

I didn't figure it out until Caro explained it to someone else Dot - and it's so easy.

[Jane]

The Boston Globe (child of the NY Times) does a decent job profiling Scott Brown:

[Porchlight]

Ras at -12. WTH? I cannot possibly imagine what is causing dummy's numbers to go *up*.

[Old Lurker]

LUN is Pagar's Am Spectator piece. Wow this is a good day for reading links.

[narciso]

It's a terrible poll, with a twenty point differential among voters (registered, likely, what) that's four points larger than the 2008 election exit poll.

Yes, Bihani (sic) v. US, is an important case, very sensible, that's why they tried
to keep her off the Court.

[Clarice]

porchlight..I think Mickey has the answer to your question also to the question why was everyone supporting Napolitano.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/blogs/kausfiles/

[Dave (in MA)]

Jane, the Globe (my parrot's toilet) must be up to something. Yesterday they had a piece that was critical of Coakley and today they had this piece on Brown. My guess is they're laying down a BS layer of "fairness" and then in the week leading up to the 19th they'll unleash a barrage of anti-Brown hit pieces.

[narciso]

Of course, Salazar doing the work for free, that the Saudis would ordinarily pay for, in the lUN

[narciso]

Some of those strategies make sense, but Hilyer has spent much of the year, talking
down to the Tea Parties, to Sarah, to anyone who would throw a spanner in the works of the Obamacare machine. Steele grading himself with a solid B, doesn't help things

[Jack is Back!]

Remember this name: Michael Leiter.

He is the fall guy for the groin-bomber fiasco on Christmas Day.

Supposedly, he runs NCTC and was in Colorado skiiing during the Detroit incident and kept "on-piste" for two more days instead of coming back to DC to coordinate.

If its good for the goose, then?

[Porchlight]

Aha clarice...that does explain it all. It's triangulation, Obama-style. Very typical of him too, since his first instinct is to blame others, including his own staff.

He is like the worst boss you ever had, times 10.

[Parking Lot]

WOWSER!!!

Jack Cafferty,CNN's hater of all things Republican, disses Obama, Pelosi, and Gibbs and hopes voters remember their lies in the midterms

Link to video under name

No one is more partisan that Cafferty so this is big imo

[Clarice]

narcso, add to Salazar's nonsense, today's EPA new regs on smog which will cost municipalities billions of dollars to conform to.

[DebinNC]

Nelson: "The Congressional Budget Office could not, in the time frame we had, figure out what states would opt in and what states would opt out [of the government paying 100% of a state's expanded Medicaid costs through 2017], and couldn’t put a number to it,” Nelson said. “So what they did is just put $100 million on Nebraska in a line item in there. It’s really nothing more than a place holder for us to deal with the issue in conference, which I’ve already started doing."

Why would any state opt out if most states are opting in? And if most/all states opt in, what becomes of the deficit neutrality Obama and Webb and others said was primary? Nelson was a willing dupe to enable the Dems to bypass the CBO reckoning, vote, and fraudulently tout the bogus "$132B will be saved" over ten years lie.

[pagar]

Thanks Old Lurker, IMO, the many outstanding articles we get to read via the JOM links help make JOM my favorite blog. One of the reasons is that one knows that the good posters at JOM are almost always going to put up good links.

This article from Big Government goes with the American Spectator comment that the healthcare fraud bill is the war.

"That’s 21.1 million workers that SEIU and AFSCME expect will eventually become federal or state employees; employees that Stern and McEntee could force into their unions by the stroke of a Presidential Pen

"If the average dues were just $75 a month, 100% participation would translate into $19 billion per year in forced union dues for SEIU and AFSCME. That’s a big piece of pie!"

Meanwhile, the LUN explains just how much of a burden Public Service unions are to taxpayers

[jean]

NARCISO Have you read RENDEZVOUS WITH DESTINY?It is about the 1980 Reagan campaign.I"m 32% into the book.(Kindle tells you such things)In so many places you could replace Reagan for Palin and Carter for Obama.I think you would enjoy it.At least the first 32%

[Jane]

Dave re: the Globe - I read something this morning - I think at NRO where a guy said that he once worked at the Globe and the reporters are much less moonbatty than the editors and columnists. But if they don't endorce Coakley I will be shocked.

[narciso]

Leiter was at the December 22nd meeting of the principles, he seems a guy, who was out of his depth. he wasn't stupid enough to say the system worked, unlike Blair orNapolitano. I snickered at his comment during the weekend
thread.

Now the cognitive dissonance to cast out Leiter while excusing Obama who was at the same meeting, would make Harry Mudd's androids
blow a fuse

[pagar]

"I cannot possibly imagine what is causing dummy's numbers to go *up*."

I wonder if it has anything to do with a lot of leftists attacking Rasmussen Polls last week for being negative on Obama?

[narciso]

Thanks jean, I'll look into getting that book, that's been my impression.

[Jane]

Bet you that The won comes out today and says his TSA nominee (who abused his FBI position, and lied to Congress about it) is soooooo important to confirm at this point. He will of course save the Union (and than promptly unionize the TSA)

[Elliott]

Porchlight,

I don't think they want a bill before the state of the union any more. They don't want footage from it used against them in campaign ads.

[Porchlight]

Ooh, very interesting, Elliott. But do you think Obama can resist talking about it in the SOTU anyway?

[Jane]

But do you think Obama can resist talking about it in the SOTU anyway?

My guess is that depends on whether Scott Brown is elected.

[narciso]

Well that has been his tack with regards to Geithner and the ;emminent epidemiologist'
Sebelius, with the HINI, so it wouldn't surprise me in the least

[Porchlight]

Could be. Saw some speculation yesterday (here?) that the rush to get a deal worked out is based on Congress knowing something we don't about the MA race. Internal polling looking bad for Coakley?

[Rick Ballard]

"I cannot possibly imagine what is causing dummy's numbers to go *up*."

There's a little 'Mother's Day' effect in the first week of most months. It's only a couple of points for a couple of days but it's there.

Don't worry - there is absolutely no risk of him exhibiting any competence.

[Clarice]

Here's my take--they are postponing putting a date on the SOTU hoping to get something passed before then. They won't--The House will bolt first..but if they don't the Senate will. The latest report is that Blanche Lincoln is going.

[jimmyk]

The House will bolt first..but if they don't the Senate will.

Can someone explain--Does the senate still need 60 votes for whatever piece of garbage they come up with at this stage? I thought once cloture was voted and the bill goes to conference (or whatever subterranean process the Dems are using instead), only 50 votes are needed.

[Rocco]

Scott Brown is ahead of Martha Coakley 65% to 21% today among unenrolled or Independent voters. These are the voters who elected Romney, Cellucci and Weld. This is huge!

Kennedy was our Senator for 47 years, it's time for a change!

[Extraneus]

Connecticut is not at all happy with Joe Lieberman.

Wouldn't that imply that there might be wisdom in a party switch?

From DoT's link:

PPP finds that 81 percent of Democrats disapprove of Lieberman. Among Republicans, 39 percent approve and 48 percent disapprove; among indies the split is 32 / 61.

Even after he voted for cloture, 81% of Dems oppose him? What's the point of "caucusing" with them?

[Old Lurker]

jimmyk, I think DoT's summary was that if it comes back changed from the leaders' meetings (or from a conference), it is subject to filibuster again and then a majority vote. If the House swallowed the Senate Bill without change, then it does not come back at all to the Senate, but goes straight to Obama for signing.

[jean]

How is anyone going to know if the bill has changed?No one saw the other bills before they were voted on.

[Old Lurker]

damn good point, jean.

[cathyf]

Yeah, I've always wondered why I can't show up at some government office:

cathyf: Hi, I'm here to pick up the check for $10million from the Stimulus Bill appropriation.

clerk: What $10million?

cathyf: The $20million Dollars For JOM Commenters Whose Initials Are CF provision. Oh, and clarice is out circling the block because we can't find a parking spot -- she'll be in for her dough when I get mine and take over behind the wheel.

clerk: But-but-but there is no such provision!

cathyf: Yes there is!

clerk: No there isn't!

cathyf: Is too!

clerk: Is not!

cathyf: Is too!

clerk: Is not!

cathyf: Is too!

clerk: Is not!

...

[pagar]

" Internal polling looking bad for Coakley?"

The go-to for info on the Mass. senate race seems to be Legal Insurrection. His latest:

"Scott Brown Has Won The Online Race"

Speaking of that race, what happened to Rocco? I hope he isn't frozen on some street corner.

[Rick Ballard]

Pagar,

The second factor in Dumbo's ratings is the incessant cheerleading by the Associated Press Ministry of Truth.

Most people will see this headline: Unemployment-claims data signal job gains are near and very few will ever see this interpretation of the same data: Total NSA Unemploment Claims Hit Another Record

There is no question that things are getting worse at a much slower pace but that is not "getting better".

[Old Lurker]

Rick has done us all a favor the last several days to debunk in advance the fake numbers coming out tomorrow concerning jobs. Others in the financial press also smell a rat coming, and some investors are planning to profit on the headline and sell before the numbers can be interpreted. So heads up tomorrow.

[Clarice]

I don't know if trust cathy to go in for the money first...Hmmm

[Old Lurker]

"There is no question that things are getting worse at a much slower pace but that is not "getting better"."

I think of it as if jumping off a bridge with a bungy cord that is one foot too long.

[Sue]

OL,

I heard during the noon hour that new unemployment numbers coming out tomorrow are up slightly from what was predicted. The unemployment rate will go up, according to my noontime source.

[Rocco]

pager

I don't mind the cold and I just have to do something! Heading out right now for the evening commute. Wouldn't it be great if Massachusetts would lead the country in revolt again!

We're already taxed to support health care for all in this state. Now we're going to be taxed again federally? If that ain't taxation without representation...what is?

Alarm Massachusetts! The bastards are coming again!

[Sue]

Alarm Massachusetts! The bastards are coming again!

My goodness. Can you imagine how our forefathers did what they did without the internet? Go Massachusetts!

[Rocco]

Every day on my commute to and from work, I would drive by the house a young fifer named Luther Blanchard left from to lead the Acton Minutemen six miles to Concord Fight. Then I'd drive by Acton Minuteman Abner Hosmer's house and down the same road Captain Isaac Davis led his men on and finally by the resting place of Davis, Hosmer and Haywood. My hero's

The First To Die

I'm heading to Acton right now

[Rick Ballard]

Go Rocco! A true JO Minute Man!

Sue,

There isn't any way to know what the Solis BLS will provide tomorrow. The mismatch between tax deposits and the BLS numbers makes them risible and of minimal utility. I just hope the rate at which the economy worsens will continue to slow - OL's image of a bungee cord that's a foot too long is rather unpleasant to contemplate.

[Frau Roggenbrot]

So right, jean. Has there ever been a similar phantom bill passed? (Written by idiots and signifying destruction.)

And it's written by Janice Rogers Brown, my hero, whom I hope one day to see on the Supreme Court. I should live so long.
Yes, indeed. My hero, too, DoT. If judges were chosen by life story alone, hers would beat the wise latina's any day, but she is the real stuff. How many good judges were we denied. Now we'll most likely see E. Kagan on the high court.

[jimmyk]

There is no question that things are getting worse at a much slower pace but that is not "getting better".

Even more indicative, the ADP report (LUN) for December shows -84,000 jobs. The ADP has been pretty accurate the last few months. So it looks like we'll see another -100,000 or so in tomorrow morning's release. That will also likely come with a blip up in the unemployment rate, as last month's decrease was probably a fluke.

[Porchlight]

You're awesome, Rocco. Stay warm and safe out there.

[Ann]

Go Rocco!!! Give em Hell.

[bad]

You are my hero, Rocco, and in my prayers.

Stay warm and dry.