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February 01, 2010

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Neo

He flipped the keys to Pelosi and Reid on the two biggest issues of 2009, the stimulus bill and health care

... but it does give him cover if he wants to tirangulate

Danube of Thought

"If you think Obama's polls followed the job picture south, then this political strategy may be genius."

But that political strategy depends on the jobs market improving significantly between now and November, and I haven't seen anyone suggesting that it will.

Neo

Back in 1984, it looked bad for Reagan until unemployment dropped below 10%. Since Obama promised 8% with the "stimulus", the Democrats are toast if it's not below 8% by November, the same for Obama in 2012. Two years might not be enough to make that happen, especially when the Fed starts to unwind interest rates.

Thomas Collins

I'm going to have to go with Ajami on TM's nitpicks. I recall that McCain/Palin was steadily ahead of Obama/Biden in the tracking polls until the fall 2008 panic. So, while we can debate the issue of the beginning of the Obama moment, it is not unreasonable to define that moment as the time his election became likely, and not unreasonable to pick the fall of 2008 as that time.

I also think that many commentators have emphasized disgust at ObamaCare at the expense of disgust at Mirandizing Jihadists as a factor in Brown's victory. Brown was actually more hard core on the latter issue. His position was crystal clear: terrorists must be treated as enemy combatants. On health care, although he was clearly opposed to ObamaCare, he did hold out the possibility of talking with the Dems to reach a compromise on health care legislation. I'd be interested in the recollections of other JOMers who heard and saw the ads, but my recollection was his terrorists must be treated as enemy combatants ads were run as frequently as his anti-health care ads.

Jack is Back!

He's a loner (BHO). He believes he alone is infallible. His combination of hubris, arrogance and narcissism creates mistrust and he is know realizing that it can't perform basic executive management like it could basic up-tick campaigning. Now he needs boogie-men and that is where Bush used to come in but now the Republican congress critters come in. The strategy has changed from Bush-basing to Republican party of NO- bashing. Fodder for the base. That is why the RAS PAI is rising. It is like watching Icarus flying to the sun.

Neo

Presto! The President looks both empathetic and omnipotent.

Methinks this was the same idea with AGW

JorgXMcKie

How about another alternative: Obama is an over-inflated, incompetent boob, who surrounds himself with others even less competent?

He is incapable of doing anything but going with the flow and taking credit for anything good and trying to lay blame for the bad?

Since he was incompetent enough to farm out his policy work to Pelosi and Reid [another pair of dimbulbs] he's screwed and so are we?

clarice

TC--After the election SB's campaign manager said their internals showed that the terrorist/natl security issues turned the election in his favor.

Ignatz

--Huh? By the fall of 2008 Obama was already the Democratic nominee for President, having vanquished Hillary the previous spring.--

I suspect Ajami was referring to the phenomenon of a Barry presidency not his dropping a house on the Red Witch.

--Gosh, it seems like only a few weeks ago that Scott Brown was elected, well after the Christmas near-miss over Detroit.--

I think the "Then" in "Then the close call on Christmas Day...." refers to the incident being subsequent to the immediately preceding sentence containing Scott Brown's "assertion that it was more urgent to hunt down terrorists than to provide for their legal defense" rather than to his election.

Thomas Collins

Thanks, clarice. I thought the terrorist/national security issues were crucial to Brown's victory, but I didn't realize the campaign manager had said that.

Neo

[CEA Chair Christina Romer] then gave the unemployment forecast. At the end of 2010, the unemployment rate, according to the administration’s forecast, will be 9.8%. At the end of 2011, the rate will be at 8.9%. And at the end of 2012, after the next presidential election, the unemployment rate will be 7.9%.

Tom Bowler

Now it's 2010, the economy is on the mend (we hope!) and the President can talk about his new focus on jobs just as the job market begins to recover more or less naturally.

Except for one or two things, TM. As I understand it, that astounding 4th quarter growth was a mix of firms restocking depleted inventories and Barry's stimulus spending. Consumer spending is still sluggish and isn't expected to pick up very soon, so there isn't likely to be much in the way of growth. Maybe for the next couple of years.

On top of that Barry is committed to tax cuts for everybody except anybody that makes money, so there isn't going to be any supply side boost. Without that I don't think the job market is going to have much of a natural recovery.

On the other I'm not independently wealthy and that might a useful gauge as to the accuracy of my predictions.

Katherine

I i would like to be able to share beautiful lovely fantasy dreams of Christina Romer. Wonder, what she is taking and where I can get some?
I would like to blunt the harshness of reality for myself too, even only by some good chemicals.

Elliott

Speaking of time travel, let's fast forward to Feb. 11:

Doha (Al Parodia) -- Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nezhad revealed his regime's prototype tablet device at a morning event in Tehran. In the address, which was broadcast on state television, the President claimed that the secret development project was behind the country's pursuit of nuclear power and also suggested the AyatollahPad would be in stores in time for Ramadan. Regime spokesman declined to comment on rumors there would also be a military version of the device.

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