Time Travel

The WSJ runs a delightful Obama-basher, but I had trouble nodding my head to the rhythm because of repeated leaps back and forth through the space-time continuum.

Here we go:

The curtain has come down on what can best be described as a brief un-American moment in our history. That moment began in the fall of 2008, with the great financial panic, and gave rise to the Barack Obama phenomenon.

Huh?  By the fall of 2008 Obama was already the Democratic nominee for President, having vanquished Hillary the previous spring.  Either move the financial panic back to the Bear Stearns bust in March 2008 (still a bit late) or find some other cause for the Rise of The One.

Much later we have this account of Obama's unraveling:

But no sooner had the country recovered its poise, it drew a line for Mr. Obama. The "bluest" of states, Massachusetts, sent to Washington a senator who had behind him three decades of service in the National Guard, who proclaimed his pride in his "army values" and was unapologetic in his assertion that it was more urgent to hunt down terrorists than to provide for their legal defense.

Then the close call on Christmas Day at the hands of the Nigerian jihadist Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab demonstrated that the terrorist threat had not receded. The president did his best to recover: We are at war, he suddenly proclaimed. Nor were we in need of penance abroad. Rumors of our decline had been exaggerated. The generosity of the American response to Haiti, when compared to what India and China had provided, was a stark reminder that this remains an exceptional nation that needs no apologies in distant lands.

Gosh, it seems like only a few weeks ago that Scott Brown was elected, well after the Christmas near-miss over Detroit.  And I think that Scott Brown benefited more from the health care reform debacle than from the Miranda-for-terrorists debacle.

But enough nit-picking.  Mr. Ajami's basic premise is this:

Mr. Obama himself authored the tale of his own political crisis. He had won an election, but he took it as a plebiscite granting him a writ to remake the basic political compact of this republic.

Mr. Obama's self-regard, and his reading of his mandate, overwhelmed all restraint. The age-old American balance between a relatively small government and a larger role for the agencies of civil society was suddenly turned on its head. Speed was of the essence to the Obama team and its allies, the powerful barons in Congress. Better ram down sweeping social programs—a big liberal agenda before the people stirred to life again.

Let me suggest two alternatives.  A view favored by libs is that the economy was doomed to weakness, unemployment was bound to rise, and the public mood was sure to sour.  Obama blameless!

Or another notion is that the last year has represented a failure of Obama's leadership style.  He flipped the keys to Pelosi and Reid on the two biggest issues of 2009, the stimulus bill and health care, and left the public wondering both "who is this guy?", and "where is this guy?".  Obama's vision has not failed because it has not yet been revealed! 

Well.  A final view can be categorized as "those who do not understand the past (or the present) are doomed to whine for the NY Times".  Gail Collins bemoans the endless partisanship in Washington and closes with this:

Whatever muscles we used in cooperating have atrophied. Barack Obama ran for president promising to change that, and he hasn’t. Part of the fault is his. Sometimes at crucial moments, there seems to be no hands on the tiller. The Republicans are impossible. Many Democrats are both frightened and greedy.

But figuring out how we got here is irrelevant. We need to get out.

I am just guessing, but figuring out how we got here might very well suggest a solution.  Just for example, suppose Obama's core problem is, in fact, the job market.  It may be that Team Obama figured that 2009 would be ghastly for jobs and that the President would look empathetic but impotent if he spent the year talking about jobs without "delivering" any (which, broadly speaking, he can't).  Now it's 2010, the economy is on the mend (we hope!) and the President can talk about his new focus on jobs just as the job market begins to recover more or less naturally.  Presto!  The President looks both empathetic and omnipotent.

Well.  If you believe liberal overreach was Obama's primary problem, a focus on jobs may not be the solution.  If you think Obama's polls followed the job picture south, then this political strategy may be genius.  But Gail Collins doesn't care.

Comments

[Neo]

He flipped the keys to Pelosi and Reid on the two biggest issues of 2009, the stimulus bill and health care

... but it does give him cover if he wants to tirangulate

[Danube of Thought]

"If you think Obama's polls followed the job picture south, then this political strategy may be genius."

But that political strategy depends on the jobs market improving significantly between now and November, and I haven't seen anyone suggesting that it will.

[Neo]

Back in 1984, it looked bad for Reagan until unemployment dropped below 10%. Since Obama promised 8% with the "stimulus", the Democrats are toast if it's not below 8% by November, the same for Obama in 2012. Two years might not be enough to make that happen, especially when the Fed starts to unwind interest rates.

[Thomas Collins]

I'm going to have to go with Ajami on TM's nitpicks. I recall that McCain/Palin was steadily ahead of Obama/Biden in the tracking polls until the fall 2008 panic. So, while we can debate the issue of the beginning of the Obama moment, it is not unreasonable to define that moment as the time his election became likely, and not unreasonable to pick the fall of 2008 as that time.

I also think that many commentators have emphasized disgust at ObamaCare at the expense of disgust at Mirandizing Jihadists as a factor in Brown's victory. Brown was actually more hard core on the latter issue. His position was crystal clear: terrorists must be treated as enemy combatants. On health care, although he was clearly opposed to ObamaCare, he did hold out the possibility of talking with the Dems to reach a compromise on health care legislation. I'd be interested in the recollections of other JOMers who heard and saw the ads, but my recollection was his terrorists must be treated as enemy combatants ads were run as frequently as his anti-health care ads.

[Jack is Back!]

He's a loner (BHO). He believes he alone is infallible. His combination of hubris, arrogance and narcissism creates mistrust and he is know realizing that it can't perform basic executive management like it could basic up-tick campaigning. Now he needs boogie-men and that is where Bush used to come in but now the Republican congress critters come in. The strategy has changed from Bush-basing to Republican party of NO- bashing. Fodder for the base. That is why the RAS PAI is rising. It is like watching Icarus flying to the sun.

[Neo]

Presto! The President looks both empathetic and omnipotent.

Methinks this was the same idea with AGW

[JorgXMcKie]

How about another alternative: Obama is an over-inflated, incompetent boob, who surrounds himself with others even less competent?

He is incapable of doing anything but going with the flow and taking credit for anything good and trying to lay blame for the bad?

Since he was incompetent enough to farm out his policy work to Pelosi and Reid [another pair of dimbulbs] he's screwed and so are we?

[clarice]

TC--After the election SB's campaign manager said their internals showed that the terrorist/natl security issues turned the election in his favor.

[Ignatz]

--Huh? By the fall of 2008 Obama was already the Democratic nominee for President, having vanquished Hillary the previous spring.--

I suspect Ajami was referring to the phenomenon of a Barry presidency not his dropping a house on the Red Witch.

--Gosh, it seems like only a few weeks ago that Scott Brown was elected, well after the Christmas near-miss over Detroit.--

I think the "Then" in "Then the close call on Christmas Day...." refers to the incident being subsequent to the immediately preceding sentence containing Scott Brown's "assertion that it was more urgent to hunt down terrorists than to provide for their legal defense" rather than to his election.

[Thomas Collins]

Thanks, clarice. I thought the terrorist/national security issues were crucial to Brown's victory, but I didn't realize the campaign manager had said that.

[Neo]

[CEA Chair Christina Romer] then gave the unemployment forecast. At the end of 2010, the unemployment rate, according to the administration’s forecast, will be 9.8%. At the end of 2011, the rate will be at 8.9%. And at the end of 2012, after the next presidential election, the unemployment rate will be 7.9%.

[Tom Bowler]

Now it's 2010, the economy is on the mend (we hope!) and the President can talk about his new focus on jobs just as the job market begins to recover more or less naturally.

Except for one or two things, TM. As I understand it, that astounding 4th quarter growth was a mix of firms restocking depleted inventories and Barry's stimulus spending. Consumer spending is still sluggish and isn't expected to pick up very soon, so there isn't likely to be much in the way of growth. Maybe for the next couple of years.

On top of that Barry is committed to tax cuts for everybody except anybody that makes money, so there isn't going to be any supply side boost. Without that I don't think the job market is going to have much of a natural recovery.

On the other I'm not independently wealthy and that might a useful gauge as to the accuracy of my predictions.

[Katherine]

I i would like to be able to share beautiful lovely fantasy dreams of Christina Romer. Wonder, what she is taking and where I can get some?
I would like to blunt the harshness of reality for myself too, even only by some good chemicals.

[Elliott]

Speaking of time travel, let's fast forward to Feb. 11:

Doha (Al Parodia) -- Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nezhad revealed his regime's prototype tablet device at a morning event in Tehran. In the address, which was broadcast on state television, the President claimed that the secret development project was behind the country's pursuit of nuclear power and also suggested the AyatollahPad would be in stores in time for Ramadan. Regime spokesman declined to comment on rumors there would also be a military version of the device.