Edging Towards The Lifeboats

The Politico reports that Nancy Pelosi, the future former House Speaker, is seeing cracks in her facade of power:

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is not accustomed to the word she’s been hearing far more frequently in recent days: “no.”

Over the past two weeks, Pelosi has faced a series of subtle but significant challenges to her authority — revolts from Democrats on the Ways and Means Committee, the Congressional Black Caucus, the Blue Dog Coalition and politically vulnerable first- and second-term members.

The dynamic stems from an “every man for himself” attitude developing in the Democratic Caucus rather than a loss of respect for Pelosi, according to a senior Democratic aide. But it’s making Pelosi’s life — and efforts to maintain Democratic unity — harder.

If she can find 216 votes for health care she becomes a genius again. 

And what does this seeming olive branch from Stupak mean?

TAWAS CITY, Mich. — Prospects are good for resolving a dispute over abortion that has led some House Democrats to threaten to withhold support of President Barack Obama's health care overhaul, a key Michigan Democrat said Monday.

Rep. Bart Stupak said he expects to resume talks with House leaders this week in a quest for wording that would impose no new limits on abortion rights but also would not allow use of federal money for the procedure.

"I'm more optimistic than I was a week ago," Stupak said in an interview between meetings with constituents in his northern Michigan district. He was hosting a town hall meeting Monday night at a local high school.

"The president says he doesn't want to expand or restrict current law (on abortion). Neither do I," Stupak said. "That's never been our position. So is there some language that we can agree on that hits both points — we don't restrict, we don't expand abortion rights? I think we can get there."

Health care reform advocates will say that Stupak's conciliatory approach means Nancy has advanced to the one yard line (and may even call for a booth review!).  Gloom-and-doomers will say that reform is so dead that Stupak is trying to avoid being tarred by fellow Dems as a key villain.

We'll know by Easter!  Unless this vote is put off until Arbor Day, or Memorial Day, or Flag Day (not a normal day for Dems to celebrate, but still...), or the 4th of July, or whenever.

Comments

[Jack is Back!]

Reverse the rat guards and begin to rearrange the deck chairs!

[Porchlight]

I still don't understand where the "language" Stupak wants is going to be negotiated. The House has to vote on the Senate bill as is. Where will the new language live? In the reconciliation bill? A third bill?

[Porchlight]

That's assuming of course that there will be *any* bills after the Senate bill passes the House. A big assumption on Stupak's part.

[Jeff]

Obama the con man is trying to run one last con on the House Dems. If they vote Yes they will never see a recon bill, never.

[narciso]

Better do my best Admiral Ackbar impression,
(the runner up for the mascot at Ole Miss) 'it's a trap' if this passes in part because
of him, pro lifers among others will curse the name of Stupak, for delivering us to the death panels. Did he miss the last six months
of debate

[Jim Ryan]

I hope that if they pass the Senate bill, Harry, Nancy, and Zero decide to screw the Stupid Dozen by not going for a reconciliation bill with his anti-abortion language in it.

If the Stupid Dozen are going to screw us, they need to get burned for it.

[Rick Ballard]

Perhaps a reversal of tactics is in order? We could start talking about Nancy's Kool-Aid being the most refreshing drink ever offered to a sitting Dem. Just chock full of vitamins and sure to prolong the tenure of any Dem who drains the dregs. What do the stupid voters know anyway?

[There's something happening here and she don't know what it is.]

Momentum, folks, and the tide ebbs. She'd call for the vote, now, but suspects that yes votes will turn to no at the moment.

And even for her, paranoia strikes deep.
==========================

[It may be spontaneous, but there'll be a combustion.]

I think her autocracy and viciousness has kept vulnerable blue dogs from talking to each other, and that sort of suppression of the popular will just hasn't legitimacy.
===================

[Jones, anyway, also drank the Kool-Aid. Obama, suddenly he's not thirsty.]

And like it or not, some of it will be resentment that Obama is poisoning the Reps, while he's safe through this election.
===============

[Danube of Thought]

If we can hold 'em off until St. Crispin's Day, I'll allow a low-key celebration to begin.

[Stupak]

You see, I like the gulag bill. It's just that it calls for some executions and that goes against my "values," such as they are.

[We few, we happy few.]

Heh, DoT, meanwhile, it's cold, I'm hungry, a long way from home, and I got the runs.
==============

[Janet]

We are being led by "men without chests"....

[Thomas Collins]

This is the end game. The Stupaks and other holdouts get promises. They vote for ObamaCare. If the promised changes don't go through in another bill, GOPers get blamed. Whether or not blaming the GOP saves the seats of the Stupaks is irrelevant to Obama/Reid/Pelosi/Emanuel.

I agree with those who are saying that Pelosi must not currently have the votes because she has not called for a vote. However, I think she is getting there.

[Stupak]

Well, if Nancy stiffs me, I'll tell my district, "Re-elect me. You can't blame me for trusting Nancy Pelosi."

[Harry]

Yeah, uh, Bart, we're not gonna be able to give you that reconciliation bill. A naked sociopath in the Congressional shower poked me in the chest and my chest caved. Sorry about that, chief.

[mobuto]

'am I the only one not on crazy bills' wtf is Ken Starr doing, in the LUN

[Jane]

Rush was saying that Nancy is dispensing the rest of the stimulus money to the hold outs. They should all be sued for bribery.

[Danube of Thought]

As Mara Liason pointed out yesterday, the vote-switchers don't announce gradually. Suddenly one day they'll all be there and it'll be done.

Then the work begins.

[Clarice]

stupak, "You f$%^D up, you trusted ,Nancy!" should be chalked on every wall in his district now.

[Rick Ballard]

"I agree with those who are saying that Pelosi must not currently have the votes because she has not called for a vote. However, I think she is getting there."

Hmmm..., why does Vizzini and the iocane come to mind? Hurry up, Nan - your majority is very, very thirsty.

[Jack is Back!]

Evidently, CatholicVoteAction, thinks there are only 9 dems you need to stiffen up for the vote. Not 12. They are as follows and if these are your Congress-critters you can call them and tell them to hold firm:

Jerry Costello (IL)
(618) 233-8026
(202) 225-5661

Kathy Dahlkemper (PA)
(814) 456-2038
(202) 225-5406

Joe Donnelly (IN)
(574) 288-2780
(202) 225-3915

Steve Driehaus (OH)
(513) 684-2723
(202) 225-2216

Brad Ellsworth (IN)
(812) 465-6484
(202) 225-4636

Marcy Kaptur (OH)
(419) 259-7500
(202) 225-4146

Dale Kildee (MI)
(810) 239-1437
(202) 225-3611

Jim Oberstar (MN)
(218) 727-7474
(202) 225-6211

Charlie Wilson (OH)
(740) 376-0868
(202) 225-5705

[pagar]

O/T But All lifeboats will be confiscated!

Obama’s Latest Assault on Freedom– New Regulations Will Ban Sport Fishing

Remember that old saying "First they came for the fishersmen, but I was not a fisherman"

[Patrick R. Sullivan]

Karl Rove is on Rush right now, promoting his book. He's taken a good shot at Patrick Fitzgerald.

[Appalled]

Query -- Why is the assumption here that Nancy will get the votes? There isn't even (sound familar?) a bill yet. We don't even know if the House is really voting the Senate bill through.

[Decisions, decisions.]

Fitz has a comeuppance in his future. I fear it will be by the Chicago Way, and I fear I will be on his side.
==============

[Appalled]

Query:

Why would Stupak trust Democrats in the Senate (See LUN)?

[narciso]

They don't care Appalled, there was no real cap n trade bill either, but they passed anyways. It's not about the bill itself, but
about the framework it allows you to implement

[Jim Rhoads a/k/a vjnjagvet]

Stupak has no problem with the House language so negotiating with Pelosi seems pointless. It is the Senate language that is a problem for him.

If Stupak and Company are serious about abortion language similar to what they got into the House bill, they will insist that the Senate incorporate such language before the House votes on the Senate Bill.

It looks to me that this will be a hard sell.

Ras's poll on healthcare today must give some in the WH pause, no matter what Gibbs tries to whistle by the press this PM.

[Porchlight]

they will insist that the Senate incorporate such language before the House votes on the Senate Bill.

Incorporate such language where? The House has to vote on the Senate bill as is, correct?

If that's not correct then I am even more confused than I thought I was.

[Jane]

That's my understanding Porch - so all this talk about changing things is a joke.

[Appalled]

Porchlight:

To keep track of the twists and turns, follow the links in the LUN.

[Thomas Collins]

Appalled, the bill is the Senate bill. No need to change anything. Nan just needs to bribe and beg and cajole and intimidate her way to House adoption of the Senate bill.

[Appalled]

TC:

I agree with that in principle, but keep seeing stuff suggesting the House is going to try to finesses that simple step. See LUN

[maryrose]

According to Politico there is a new plan afoot which would attac a reconciliation bill to the senate bill with both being voted on at the same time. More confusing smoke and mirrors out of Alinsky's playbook. If you don't like a law or a rule change it and that's what they are doing. despicable behavior even for dems.It's officially become a fiasco with no rules whatsoever!

[Captain Hate]

It's officially become a fiasco with no rules whatsoever!

Where's Sheets Byrd while all this garbage is going on? Wasn't he the author of some grandiose "Rules of the Senate" that is surely being anally raped by the Donks?

[Clarice]

Boy,speaking of Kucinich--would it be hard to pick the dumbest person in Congress.

Here's Speaker Pelosi:
“But we have to pass the bill so that you can find out what is in it, away from the fog of the controversy"
http://www.speaker.gov/newsroom/pressreleases?id=1576

[From a comment at Appalled's link.]

Is it true that if there is enough parliamentary chicanery it can be stopped in appeals court?
==================

[Clarice]

Do you have a single example of such a thing, Kim?

[And on her gravestone, too.]

Wow, Clarice, that sentence of Pelosi's ought to engraved in stone and thrown at every Democrat who ever appears in public.
==============

[pagar]

"“But we have to pass the bill so that you can find out what is in it, "

Somehow, I had the idea that one found out what was in a bill by reading it. Did I miss some change in the process? It should be against the law for a Congressperson to vote for a bill if they don't know what is in it.

[Patrick R. Sullivan]

Fitz has a comeuppance in his future. I fear it will be by the Chicago Way, and I fear I will be on his side.

He's about to get it from the Supreme Court. Even the liberals there were expressing astonishment at what the so called 'Honest Services' law entails. Conrad Black is most likely to win his appeal.

Fitz has even amended his case against Blago, because of it.

[Clarice]

Politico says the March 18 is Gibbs' deadline, not the House's (I don't think they have the votes!)
Blanche Lincoln rejects reconciliation (Washington examiner)

[Danube of Thought]

Here's my favorite line from the Politico article:

"This would allow them to deal with the Senate bill without forcing their members to go on record in support of unpopular items, like the now-infamous Cornhusker Kickback or the so-called Louisiana Purchase, that could be used against them on the campaign trail in the fall."

Right. So all those voters who don't like the Kickback, but love Obamacare, will embrace them because they didn't do anything unpopular.

[Danube of Thought]

"Is it true that if there is enough parliamentary chicanery it can be stopped in appeals court?"

No. Courts will never review legislative procedures.

[hit and run]

Have you ever asked yourself,"self,I wonder what hit's voice sounds like?"

If the answer is no,either in whether you have asked the question or as to how you answered it,please be forewarned about clicking this link:

http://thevimh.blogspot.com/2010/03/citizens-for-protection-against-abusive.html>Citizens for the Protection Against Abusive Democratic Politicians

[Clarice]

Hot--that's really wonderful!

Maybe Jane can cross post it on You Too or run it on her show.

[Clarice]

Ahem HIt..(Must be something Freudian)

[hit and run]

Thanks,Clareasy.

I had a lot of fun making it (besides a bunch of carp with the software that took me most of sunday to finally get the thing published) . . . got Geraghty to run it too.

[hit and run]

Oooops. "Clarice",of course.

[Clarice]

When they say "Timing is everything" I think this is what they mean:

WASHINGTON (AP) - Major business groups say President Barack Obama's health care overhaul is a job killer, and they're launching a multimillion-dollar ad campaign to take that message to voters.
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the National Association of Manufacturers, and groups ranging from contractors to retailers said Tuesday the Democratic health care bills would raise their expenses, while failing to control health care costs.
Advertisements will start airing nationwide Wednesday on cable television and shift in a few days to 17 states, targeting moderate and conservative Democrats whose votes are critical to passing the bill in the House. The campaign is estimated to cost between $4 million and $10 million, with the insurance industry paying part of the cost."

At last! The calvary is on the horizon.

[Janet]

Great job Hit...I posted it on my Facebook account. My old college friend that has reconnected through Facebook is gonna need some duct tape to keep his head from exploding! Well done...

[Clarice]

Hit, it is really great.

Maybe it'd time to set up Hit & Run productions..

[windansea]

Ed Morrisey has the latest on how they are trying to get this done.

http://hotair.com/archives/2010/03/09/pelosi-we-need-to-pass-obamacare-so-that-the-public-can-find-out-whats-in-the-bill/

[Danube of Thought]

Again, they're in another world:

"California is likely to see modest job losses in the near term from its aggressive climate change policy due to higher energy costs and other factors, the state's independent Legislative Analyst's Office said."

Unemployment at 12.7% and they want to demonstrate to the world how to combat global warming. I'm sure the Chinese and Indians are fascinated...

[jimmyk]

I agree with those who are saying that Pelosi must not currently have the votes because she has not called for a vote. However, I think she is getting there.

I fear that the plan all along is to get just the number of votes they need, by letting the 45 or whatever most vulnerable Dems vote "no", and figuring out some payoff to the ten or fifteen who would rather vote "no". The delay is just figuring out who is in each category and coming up with appropriate bribes.

[Danube of Thought]

A beauty, Hit.

And remember what Calvin Coolidge said: when unemployment is up, people are out of work.

[Clarice]

Another No.

Whip Count (No. 13 in a Series) McNerney
Would Vote No on Senate Health Care Bill
ABC News, by Sunlen Miller

During a town hall last month in Morgan Hill, California, Congressman Jerry McNerney (D-Calif.) indicated that he would not vote in for the Senate’s version of the health care bill, The Morgan Hill Times reports. McNerney voted yes in November when the House voted in November. "Audience members decried the health insurance industry's plans to raise premiums next year and the prohibitive cost of healthcare for those who are uninsured," Michael Moore of The Morgan Hill Times wrote, "McNerney criticized the current version of healthcare reform passed by the U.S. Senate for the deals it makes

[Danube of Thought]

Politico:

"White House officials will huddle with Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and their respective leadership teams Tuesday afternoon at 4:30 in the speaker's Capitol Office to put some of the finishing touches on a final health care package, according to aides. The assembled leaders and committee chairs with principal jurisdiction are meeting with the president's team to discuss the final details of a reconciliation package that can get 51 votes in the Senate and at least 216 in the House, the same aides said."

[Clarice]

Maybe we can open up a chinese take out place on Santa Barbara beach to feed the Chinese drillers who surely will start work offshore just inches from the International boundary.

[centralcal]

Hit - that was great! You are soooooo clever.

[Janet]

And remember what Calvin Coolidge said: when unemployment is up, people are out of work.

LOL! How refreshing would it be to have a plain spoken politician?

[Porchlight]

We had one in the WH from 2001-2008, Janet.

[PDinDetroit]

"NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources."

So much ARROGANCE in a simple mission statement...

LUN

[Janet]

That's true Porch. No wonder I'm such a Bush fan. Agree on everything...no, but what an honorable man.

[Jane]

Hit,

Do you want to cross post it? I would love that.

[glasater]

This could be an interesting tidbit:

Are Washington DC Insiders Manipulating InTrade To Manufacture Momentum For Healthcare Reform?

[Easy come, easy go.]

Heh, g, lending new meaning to 'money talks'.
================

[Clarice]

Possible, glasater. I've seen some whacky stuff there on political matters before.

[Fools and their money are soon parted. Yes, I know.]

There's a way to make money there, I know it.
=========

[glasater]

I'm still kicking myself for not getting in on the trade when Scott Brown was at thirty.........

[And you're no fool. Much too clear-eyed.]

Reign in the tears, g; it could gone the other way pretty easy.
=============

[hit and run]

Jane:
Do you want to cross post it? I would love that.

I will! If I can find your email with instructions...

[hit and run]

Jane....have you seen this http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/obamacare-means-a-two-tier-health-care-system/>James Lewis piece at PJM?

The most important amendment Republicans must propose for Obama’s Medi-Grab bill is a very easy one:

Resolved: that all federal and state employees must enroll in ObamaCare, without exception.

Any violation of this amendment will be punishable by a fine, imprisonment, and/or loss of federal or state employment. Enforcement of this provision will be overseen by a popularly elected commission, whose proceedings will be open to the public via the worldwide web.

You just don't get more youtoo than that!

[Jane]

HIt, If you can't find it let me know. I'm not sure I can post the video.

My work computer is an endless look of shutting down so I'm lacking a little access - I can get on from here but it's harder. Hopefully it will be fixed tomorrow.

Holy cow hit!

[caro]

Great job, hit.

Jane, did you write that resolution?

[windansea]

ok, I'm rolling back the doomsday clock to 11:59:45

Everyone’s going around saying there’s a compromise—there’s no such thing,” Stupak said. What’s changed between this week and last, Stupak went on, is that he had his first real conversation with Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and Congressman Henry Waxman about fixing the bill…

Stupak affirmed that he will not settle for an agreement to pass the bill now and fix the bill’s problems on abortion later: “If they say ‘we’ll give you a letter saying we’ll take care of this later,’ that’s not acceptable because later never comes.”…
“Members don’t have a whole lot of appetite to vote for the Senate bill as a stand alone bill–that’s for sure,” Stupak said.

“If you’re going to correct these inequities in the Senate bill, you better tie bar it to something. No one wants to vote for a freestanding bill so they can be accused of voting for a special deal for Nebraska on Medicaid.”…

By “tie-bar,” Stupak means that all the fixes, including his amendment on abortion, would pass or fail all at the same time.

[Jane]

What resolution?

Caro I tried to make reservations today. The price has tripled.

[Jane]

Caro,

You need to take a look at the bacteria thread. You were out of the country when the email list was made.

[windansea]

Allah analysis:

If he’s serious about everything being passed together then TNR’s proposal to pass an abortion fix later through the HHS appropriations bill is a nonstarter. But what about that weird jury-rigged Bill A/Bill B scheme that I wrote about earlier, by which the House would basically “merge” the Senate bill and the reconciliation fix and pass those first in order to force Reid to go through with reconciliation afterwards? Stupak’s “tie-bar” demand would mean they’d have to add Bill C — the abortion fix — and have the House “merge” that too by passing it with the other two bills, then Reid would have to somehow find 60 votes for Stupak’s abortion fix in the Senate. (Remember, because abortion is non-budgetary, it can’t be done through reconciliation.) Which brings us back to last night’s question: Would McConnell and the Republicans be smart enough to vote no or “present” on a Senate abortion fix, thereby dooming it to fail and making passage of the House’s “merged” bill impossible? I’m guessing … no. This is the GOP we’re talking about, after all. On to the tie-bar!

[pagar]

Someone needs to aid to that resolution ----
No Politician can pay for medical treatment from any other source to beat the years long waiting list that the Democrat healthcare fraud bill is going to create.

[Clarice]

Caro,Jane, what reservation tripled? airfare to DC?

If this is going to crimp your budgets whistle.

[Jane]

Airfare to Lisbon. Wanna come?

[Porchlight]

Agree on everything...no, but what an honorable man.

I'm with you, Janet.

[caro]

Thanks for sending me to the bad thread, Jane.

[Clarice]

Thanks, but no, Jane.