Primary Prep

It's raining in the greatest city in the world so we may not be able to enjoy another Red Sox Fail tonight.  But thanks to the Politico we have our primary prognostications, and maybe we will enjoy a Specter Fail.  (OK, that could be a Specter Spectacle...)

Comments

[Clarice]

Whatever...Let's follow Rush's advice--Don't drink every time an announcer says, "This is not a referendum on Obama," because you'll die of alcohol poisoning if you do.

[Melinda Romanoff]

Sitting in a Chicago hotel, looking at Chaco conduct an interview and waiting for ManTran.

Life is interesting.

[Clarice]

You guys stay out of trouble. Remember who's the super duper special prosecutor there.

[Rick Ballard]

No matter the outcome, the Dem response will alternate between "it's only a flesh wound" and "he's just pining for the fjords".

Watch the turnout in Philly - my bet is that Obama's Panthers have been instructed to suppress the vote in order to assure Specter's removal. Not that Specter would ever be popular with that segment of the Obase anyway.

[Jane says obamasucks]

Oh cool - Mel, who is Chaco interviewing? Man Tran is great - you will have fun.

[Elliott]

A Specter is haunting Sestak, the Specter of Arlenism.

[Dave (in MA)]

">http://www.duffyscliff.com/entry/jpg/113.jpg">
Granted, the Sox currently suck, but they will never go down as hard as the Oct 17-20th 2004 massive pinstripe failure.

[bgates]

Clarice, how could it be a referendum on a man with such an inconsequential office?

The explanation for why "The U.S. President [whoever it is] Has Lost Clout" comes to us from Richard Cohen, which is a Yiddish name meaning "David Letterman".

[Rick Ballard]

OT -

Germany Bans Shorting Euro

The euro and stocks extended losses as Germany’s BaFin financial-services regulator said it will introduce a temporary ban on naked short selling and naked credit-default swaps of euro-area government bonds starting at midnight. The ban will also apply to naked short selling in shares of 10 banks and insurers that will last until March 31, 2011, BaFin said today in an e-mailed statement.

On six hours notice to boot. What an extraordinary demonstration of confidence in the abiities of Trichet and the ECB.

[Ignatz]

Speaking of CDSs here is an interesting column at Forbes concerning FinReg's total screw up of bankruptcy law and the codification of more GMs and AIGs. Particularly interesting is page 2 where the author discusses the harm caused by derivatives' long standing exclusion from ordinary bankruptcy rules.

[Clarice]

I'll have to check out what Cohen wrote....someday..

Meantime--the latest from the Kennedys aka The Artistocrats.. (Don't ask me to explain the joke monicker..You've heard the raunchy joke and you'll get it ad if not, not.

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/wife_of_robert_kennedy_jr_charged_hUIMOx76aVeETSr57>The Aristocrats

[Ignatz]

Linky no worky, clarice; says page not found. Or maybe I'm just not getting it.

[Dave (in MA)]

Fixed "Aristocrats" link

Dog bites man.

[Captain Hate]

No Iggy, it didn't work for me either and the main page of the Post didn't have an obvious story to click

[centralcal]

Domestic disturbance and drunk driving. Just another day in Kennedyland.

Oh, and Campbell Brown asked to be released from her CNN contract and they agreed. CNN (and her) ratings are so far down I expect nary a ripple.

[Ignatz]

Thanks large, Dave.

I suspect anyone married to RFK Jr. would spend most of her time stinko, just in anticipation of the galoot coming home.

[JM Hanes]

"It's raining in the greatest city in the world so we may not be able to enjoy another Red Sox Fail tonight."

He's baaack!

[JM Hanes]

Rick Ballard:

"a temporary ban on naked short selling and naked credit-default swaps"

Do you mean to tell me there's no dress code embedded in the EU Constitution? They've codified everything else.

[MarkO]

Just heard on Fox that when Lincoln went to vote she was told she had already cast an absentee ballot. Huummmm.

[NK]

Hello Tom--

Please chime in on this BaFin 6 hour notice banning naked shorts. I am no expert, but it seems to me that the Germans have announced that EuroZone sovereign debt is COMPLETELY out of control. YIKES.

[Rick Ballard]

JMH,

I don't believe they anticipated needing a dress code for the EU funeral.

[Captain Hate]

Somebody at AoS said this was the best, but unlikely, scenario starting today in PA:

Sestak wins the primary
Specter, in a fit of rage against Barry and his handlers, torpedoes Kagan in committee.
Sestak loses to Toomey

[Rick Ballard]

NK,

GS Rumor Mill

In our view, its likely that this drastic move has been triggered by the planned passing by parliament of the German share of the EUR 440bn package on Friday. Dirk Schumacher, who also just landed has heard that there seems to be more resistance to the help package than previously thought.

If the Germans nix paying for My Big Fat Greek Bailout there may be some slight disturbance (think Götterdämmerung - the Sequel) in the Eurobond market.

[Cecil Turner]

Somebody at AoS said this was the best, but unlikely, scenario starting today in PA:

The middle part is unlikely. The rest looks like the odds-on favorite.

[Extraneus]

Are we going to lose our only Scottish law expert in the Senate? Say it ain't so.

[NK]

Dear Mr. Ballard,

As a son of Greek immigrants I can tell you that all the industrious Greeks left for North America and Australia years ago. If the Germans vote down the Big Fat Greek Bailout, the greeks will drink a liter of Ouzo and use their trousers as a toilet, likewise for the Portugese, Spaniards, and Italians, using their national beverages of choice, of course.

[peter]

Seems to me that if you ban shorting the Euro in one country, that will just drive down the price in other countries.

[rse]

When families I know look at the Euro and get excited because "I got an inexpensive trip a few months ago" and now it will be even cheaper, they have no idea.

How can Europe function for tourists if its citizens are striking over austerity measures and concern over financial markets blowing up the Euro?

Doesn't it feel a bit like a movie these days?

[Danube of Thought]

It is hard for me to believe in this day and age that anyone believes such a ban will be of any benefit. The stench of fear...

[Ann]

Looks like the Tea Party has the first win tonight. Rand Paul won and they are calling it a RANDSLIDE!

[Rick Ballard]

Peter,

It's the naked shorts against German banks that count. The NeueDeutscheMark will take care of itself. NK has it right about the Portugese, Spaniards and Italians but it will be the French sewer system that take the hardest blow. That and Brussels.

Alternatively - this is a staged maneuver to push the German legislature into approval. That's a possibility but a very slim one.

[bunky]

AP called Paul. Don't like his daddy. Don't know about him.

[centralcal]

Okay, guys, is Rand Paul as big a kook as his daddy?

[narciso]

Yes, he's less of one, he's a little too isolationist for my tastes, but that's just me

[Clarice]

Cecil, I like all three of them thar predictions..

Specter is mean enough to betray again--this time Obama.

And he voed against Kagan once before.

Dave, thanks for taking care of the link.

Jimmy, I do't think the article will lose anything if it's a few days later.
When you send it to the editor, tell him I suggested you do this.

[Danube of Thought]

We're at twin grandkids' 3rd b-day party in L.A. Gonna miss all the election fun. Will check with you folks when I am able.

My understanding is that Rand is not as kooky. Let's hope so.

[centralcal]

HAPPY 3RD BIRTHDAY Danube grandkids!!! (girls or boys or one of each???)

[Clarice]

Happy 3d birthday--one day we have to coordinate trips to LA DoT..I'm going to be there in 2 weeks for a 5th BDay.

[matt]

there is an open invitation in Newport Beach to JOM'ers

[Clarice]

Ricck, I just sent you an email asking if you wanted to review Fred Thompson's new book,,and in return got spam. If you have any interest email me.

And when you do, give me your new addy,pls.

[Ignatz]

--Specter is mean enough to betray again--this time Obama.--

Well he was a Dem DA, then a Repub Sentaor and then a Dem Senator. No reason he can't switch back to a Repub Senator if he loses tonight.
He's goofy enough to do it and think he'd win as a write in.

[Clarice]

Thanks, Matt,

[anduril]

Since there's been so much talk of Russia warming up to Poland and the US selling out Poland, this seems a timely update on what's going on in Poland right now:

Poland to unveil US Patriots missile batteries on May 26
18 May 2010 | 16:54 | FOCUS News Agency

Warsaw. Poland will unveil its first US Patriot-type missiles battery at a military base in the northern town of Morag on May 26, a Polish defence ministry spokesman said Tuesday, AFP reports.

...

The Polish military base at Morag, in the Mazurian Lakes region, is some 250 kilometres (150 miles) north of Warsaw and just 60 kilometres (40 miles) from the border with Russia's Kaliningrad territory.

In February, Poland ratified the so-called SOFA deal on the stationing on its soil of US troops who will crew the surface-to-air Patriot battery. They are also due to train Polish soldiers to use the system.

Poland has repeatedly insisted that the base close to Russian Kaliningrad was not chosen for political or strategic reasons, but simply because it already had good infrastructure.

In September 2009 US President Barack Obama scrapped a plan agreed a year earlier by his predecessor George W. Bush to install a controversial anti-missile shield system in Poland and the Czech Republic.

Under that now-shelved deal, the United States also pledged to help upgrade Poland's national air defences with Patriot missiles and has stuck to that part of the agreement.

...

[daddy]

Anybody know if the Black Panthers show up at the Primaries or do they only practice intimidation during General Elections?

[MarkO]

What color are the Black Panthers? There. I said it.

KKK? Same deal. Same outcome. Post racial.

[daddy]

Shoot,

They ought to run that drunk driving Kennedy chick for Office. She's obviously got all the necessary qualifications.

As for CNN's Campbell Brown, she didn't have a special CNN ad for herself on the tube in Taipei, so I figured she was toast.

[matt]

she will be cast into CNNberia now......or MSNBC

[centralcal]

Didn't she "graduate" from MSNBC to go over to CNN?

[Cecil Turner]

Cecil, I like all three of them thar predictions..

I didn't say I didn't like 'em. I see Specter is up handily in very early results (58-42% though almost all of that is from Philadelphia county).

[re: Rand Paul] Yes, he's less of one, he's a little too isolationist for my tastes, but that's just me

He's less of one . . . but still too much of one for my tastes. Trey Grayson was probably a stronger candidate for the general election, so Paul's victory means a greater chance of the seat going Dem (though that's still unlikely). And I'm very concerned his dad is trying to coopt the Tea Party movement. That wouldn't be good for anyone (except RP).

[narciso]

It's closest to the location of the first partition, around 1772,

[Jane says obamasucks]

I share your concern about the co-opting Cecil.

[Cecil Turner]

Specter now up 53-47 with 15% of the precincts reporting. That still seems surprisingly strong to me (but I like the trend).

[Clarice]

IIRC he has to win Philly very big to carry the rest of the state where Sestak is ahead.

Fast Eddie and the Black Panthers must be working like dogs.

[Ann]

This is interesting:

DOJ Voting Rights Attorney Resigns Over Black Panthers Stonewalling

Eric Holder Sucks!

[Cecil Turner]

He is carrying Philly big, but the results there seem to lead the rest of the state; and now it's 51.6-48.4 (with 23% reporting). This one's gonna be close!

[narciso]

I remember back in 2000, Philadelphia voted at more than 100% of registration, that includes, pets, small children and the dead

[Cecil Turner]

Okay, now it's Specter by 50.4-49.6% (with 31% of precincts reporting). Based on the trend (slower reporting outlying precincts favoring Sestak), I'd guess a close (1-2%)victory for Sestak. (Which is also what the latest polls predicted.)

[Ann]

Specter is going down!!! How Delightful!!!

[Rick Ballard]

Rendell is holding about 20K Philly Specter votes in reserve at the moment. He appears to be bleeding them in slowly in order to keep up appearances.

[Ann]

In other news, Blumenthal had a phony vet on stage at his presser.

LOL, Gateway has the story.

[Danube of Thought]

Think I just saw 50-50 with half reporting.

[Ann]

From someone I trust:

"Running down the list county-by-county, it's becoming clearer and clearer Specter has no hope of pulling this out."

Drinks on me, Dot.

[matt]

It looks like there is Hope & Change...in the direction it needs to go...in the UK. I blogged it. LUN for the Telegraph story.

[centralcal]

Ann, thanks for that tip. More phoney baloneys. (So, what else is new?)

[Rick Ballard]

Sestak is up by 12K and Rendel only has around 14K Specter Philly votes left. I think Sestak got him.

[narciso]

I feel so reassured they were on the ball, in Times SQuare, sarc, in the LUN

[Cecil Turner]

"Running down the list county-by-county, it's becoming clearer and clearer Specter has no hope of pulling this out."

Yep, now it's 51.5-48.5 Sestak (with 41.7 reporting). I was wrong above: won't be that close.

[Clarice]

Doug Ross has the story too. http://directorblue.blogspot.com/2010/05/blumenthals-apology-accompanied-by.html>Phony soldiers band of brothers

[Pagar]

"in the UK

"Yet, of course, the tens of thousands of EU laws are totally off limits. Selling us the idea of the state shrinking when our supreme government is in Brussels and makes the bulk of our laws is a cynical fraud."

According to the EU Referendum people, UK lawmakers are as useless as buggy whips on a car.

[Clarice]

With almost 61% of the precincts reporting
ited States Senator
Democratic Primary

Candidate Votes Percent
SESTAK, JOE (DEM)
331,001 53.3%
SPECTER, ARLEN (DEM)
290,090 46.7%

[hit and run]

In other news, hit and run jr's toilet runnethed over tonight. We've got a crew over ripping out sheet rock,carpet pulled up,baseboards removed,fans blowing.

Yay.

Line of the night,from the neighbor across the street: "Sounds like a shit load of water."

Flush with humor,that one.

There's a Specter joke in there somewhere.

[Clarice]

Never a dull moment in H & R land is there?

[narciso]

WE had one of our neighbors pipes burst and we still don't know the interior damage, hit

[Clarice]

Almost 64% of precincts reporting:

SESTAK, JOE (DEM)
365,031 53.6%
SPECTER, ARLEN (DEM)

(Get the champagne off the ice and pass the glasses around.)
315,726 46.4%

[JM Hanes]

hit!

Rosemary, whoever she may be, suggests a video montage that is just made for VIMH:

In ten or twenty years I see Al Gore’s Invconvenient Truth becoming the equivalent of “Reefer Madness”. a prior generations hysteria becomes a future generations comic relief. Someone should do some side by side cutaway clip comparisons.

Comment by Rosemary – May 16, 2010 @ 7:17

[Clarice]

ap:
Specter rejected by Pa.
Dems in bid for 6th term
Associated Press, by Staff
U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter has been defeated in a Pennsylvania primary in his bid for a sixth term after taking the risky step of switching to the Democratic Party. Voters today picked U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak as the party's nominee and rejected the 80-year-old Specter in his first Democratic campaign. The vote also was a defeat for President Barack Obama, who supported Specter when he abandoned the Republican Party last year.

[narciso]

I always thought the problem with Al was he never exhaled,

[Ann]

I wonder how Charlie Crist is feeling tonight. Should we send our condolences?

[newcreationsthelobsterisred]

Specter was a God to Plames maybe they dated or something. Have to have a judge somewhere there, especially if your using CIA's domestic powers. Plame is all over Cannes with other agents like Noor. It's so family like, like genetics, having offsprings for CIA jobs, etc. The bodies are even counting again.

Anyway, the health bill is passed and I guess the sustainable plan has gone through. I found the time line for implementation. It's from 'friends.' I was just joking about CIA time travel and space aliens|torpedoes and lucifer actually. Really.

http://bit.ly/9Z6YHc

[Cecil Turner]

Yep, it's over. Pretty sweet.

And that Blumenthal apology thing is even funnier than Souder making an abstinence video with his mistress. But hey, at least the guest poseur was an actual Vietnam vet.

[JM Hanes]

I sure would enjoy seeing Specter's hope 'n change dashed, but I think it might have been worth the price of admission to see him have to face off with Toomey in the final version of the election he changed parties to avoid. I just hope that Sestak doesn't win because he's a great candidate.

[JM Hanes]

Maybe Specter should consider running as an Independent.

[Pagar]

Clarice, I couldn't get your link to work.
This Should.

[Rick Ballard]

How can we help dear Arlen get even with those nasty Democrats who rejected him so decisively? I think supporting his blocking of Kagan would be a nice gesture. He only has a few months left on stage - he might as well grandstand all the way out.

[Clarice]

Thanks, Pagar..I tried posting it 6 times before typhus took it.. and even then though I did the html formatting correctly each time, it still didn't take it. PHEH

[Clarice]

Better yet, we should commiserate with him and insist on a full hearing to flesh out Sestak's claim the President made him an illegal bribe offer to get out of the race.

[Janet]

rejected the 80-year-old Specter

Good Lord. A lot of these guys just need to go home. Their time is done...go home already would ya?
...and reading about the newest Kennedy drinking story...there is another family/MSM creation that needs to get out of the spotlight. Enough already. Nobody cares.

[Pagar]

IN PA-12 It looks like Burns Lost

I do not understand how an American can vote for a Democrat in 2010.

[Danube of Thought]

From beyond the grave I can hear the dulcet tones of Howid Cosell himself:

"And DOWN goes Spectah! DOWN goes Spectah! Ahlin Spectah is DOWN!!

[JM Hanes]

newcreationsthelobsterisred:

Very interesting implementation Timeline for the Healthcare bill! I don't suppose anyone here will be terribly surprised to discover that these two items will not be deferred, but are slated for start up this year:

• Comparative Effectiveness Research. Establishes the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute to contract with appropriate federal agencies or the private sector to conduct comparative effectiveness research (CER).

• National Workforce Strategy. Establishes a Workforce Advisory Committee to develop a national workforce strategy.

[unification health care]

The tax is 40% of the value of the plan... employer sponsored health insurance...

2018

[Stephanie says Obama sux]

I do not understand how an American can vote for a Democrat in 2010.

1. public education
2. union member
3. parasite

[Ann]

Pagar:

Yes, the Burns loss takes all the fun out of Specter losing doesn't it. Very Sad.

==========================================>
I wish someone would tell me what is going on in Thailand. I haven't kept up with it but if anyone would provide a link or an explanation I would appreciate it.

[Pagar]

It is not who you Think.

"Ex-Harvard student accused of living a lie"

[narciso]

There was a lot of karma building up for 30+ some years, from the 'magic bullet' to Einhorn
to the 'Scottish law' nonsense, it eventually caught up to him. That Goddard site is just one cut above the Huff Po, sometimes CT

[peter]

From beyond the grave I can hear the dulcet tones of Howid Cosell himself:

"And DOWN goes Spectah! DOWN goes Spectah! Ahlin Spectah is DOWN!!

funny stuff.
Howard Cosell was truly sui generis.

[Thomas Collins]

OK, DOT, I know this is a serious primary thread, but I can't help myself (see LUN).

And Happy Birthday to your grandchildren.

[narciso]

I guess they are wheeling out those nonexistent 'death panels' out a little early

[bgates]

Not a good night in PA. In November the Republicans are running the guy who lost to the guy who lost tonight against a Democrat who gets to pretend to be a centrist, having just won a primary without the support of either the President or the governor. Meanwhile out in district 12, the dumb fucking rednecks voted in a lieutenant of the thoroughly corrupt old crook who called them all dumb fucking rednecks before they voted him in to his 105th and final term in 2008. Nice going, Johnstown: in addition to getting a rep with all of Murtha's flaws, you get a freshman who won't even be able to put money in your pockets by bleeding the rest of the country.
Oh well. At least Kentucky managed to remind people that truthers are a lot more malignant than birthers by putting Rand Paul on the ballot.

[narciso]

You want to run that by us, again, bgates