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June 20, 2010

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narciso

We've seen the practice down here, doesn't change the fact that they're more assaults, more robberies, more murders, in part because
law enforcement is 'incentivized' not to engage the subjects

bunkerbuster

And then there's this:
the IRS estimates tax underpayment totaled $345 billion in 2008! I'd say that's many times over the cost of anything and everything related to undocumented workers, crime by illegal immigrants and so on. But I guess because nonpayment of taxes doesn't have Lou Dobbs and Bill O'Reilly and Rush Limbaugh moaning nightly, you're unaware, "b." sad...
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=15111003

bunkerbuster

Poor Rick. When the numbers support his ideology, he accepts them. When they don't, he doesn't. So predictable, the way he needs it.

Danube of Thought

I didn't make my point very well, Matt. I was suggesting that those who actually believed the Marxist twaddle still believe it, and are not interested in evidence.

It seems we are now getting lengthy dissertations from some kid immersed in his high school civics material.

Cecil Turner

What's interesting to me about those statistics is the actual decrease in population in the outlying areas (as the concrete oases of Phoenix and Tucson keep growing). The slightly fewer violent crimes in the hinterlands results in a much higher per capita rate predominantly because of the vanishing capitas.

narciso

Btw, the New Yorker is now pushing Huck for the nomination, in what can be regarded as
a glowing profile for them, 'double facepalm

bunkerbuster

Hold the presses. A CRISIS in underpaid taxes. $345 billion in 2008 alone, the IRS says. Should we call the sheriff? Why not make anyone and everyone PROVE they've paid their share or go to jail? And as for "reasonable suspicion" of unpaid taxes. Well, that's obvious, innit? Tea Party rallies? White. Older. Republican. But of course. But wait, Joe the Plumber, tax scofflaw, was a HERO, right?? lol... but I thought we were all about enforcing ALL the laws ALL the time? no, sorry, the data are in and it's as obvious as the smirk on GW Bush's face that the only laws teabag conservatives want enforced are those directed toward the weak and powerless in society

Danube of Thought

Should we call the sheriff?

If all tax underpayment were a crime, and the sheriff were capable of establishing that it had occurred, that would be a good idea.

Cecil Turner

If we're going to get excited about taxes, we might want to start by putting Daschle, Geithner, Rangel, (Caroline) Kennedy, and Sebelius in jail. I'm for it.

Ignatz

--And as for "reasonable suspicion" of unpaid taxes. Well, that's obvious, innit?--

Indeed it is. Using Barry's nominees as our sample, the "reasonable suspicion" attaches to those folks with a (D) after their name.

Danube of Thought

Minus 15 at Raz today.

carny huckster vs shell gamer.

Might be a good time to pray, with that face in your palm.
====================

Danube of Thought

Ah, yes. From Gallup:

PRINCETON, NJ -- An average of 59% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents have said they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting this year compared with past elections, the highest average Gallup has found in a midterm election year for either party since the question was first asked in 1994
The truth shall set ye free.

Marc Sheppard at the American Thinker has a really fine summary of the current thinking about climate. Steven Mosher highlights it on Watts Up at the L!ink U!nder N!ame.
===============

Mary

Who you gonna believe....
Them or your lying eyes!

Janet

The corruption & lousy ideas spewing out of DC is just too much. They need to go home & just leave us alone for awhile. NO to everything. Shut the place down.

Rob Crawford

What part of "illegal immigrant" is hard to understand?

What part of "equal before the law" is hard to understand? If I travel to Mexico, I'm expected to obey their laws. But if a Mexican travels to the US, they're apparently exempt from our laws. That's not equality -- it's blatant favoritism.

Jack is Back!

bb and others:

Underpaid taxes doesn't mean a crime has been committed. It could easily be your return didn't add up correctly or the IRS disputes the taxes you calculated. It happens to everyone who has ever had to file a 1040 with deductions and credits. The real crime is the writing of the most complicated tax law in the world so that CPA's, tax attorneys and most importantly H.R. Block can maintain their lifestyle and income stream. Perhaps, Sheriff Joe could look into the number of H.& R. Block shops in Phoenix for a pink boiler-suit fitting.

narciso

Guess who's promoting Huckabee, three guesses, the first two don't count;

Steve Schmidt told me, "Really, there's three primaries within the Republican primary. There's the primary that's the evangelical wing of the Party, there's the establishment primary, and there's usually a maverick of an insurgent category. Whoever occupies two out of the three is the nominee." It would not take a packaging genius to put Huckabee out as an evangelical insurgent.

Clarice

wretchard does a spectacular job deconstrcuting the weekend's Rahm tale.
http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/author/richardfernandez/

kim, thanks for the tip on the Sheppard article which I had not yet read. It is great.

Jane

Huckabee is toast - or at least he should be.

Janet

What does evangelical mean? Who is defining it? Terms get hijacked by the left & the media to confuse and manipulate Americans. Just like J Street supposedly works on Jewish/Israel interests....many leftist "evangelical" groups are bogus.
I'm a Bible believing Christian & I have no interest in Huckabee (unless he is my only non-Dem. choice). I would vote for Huckabee with the same enthusiasm I voted for McCain...none.

Rob Crawford

It would not take a packaging genius to put Huckabee out as an evangelical insurgent.

Except that he's a nanny-stater that would make Bloomberg blush.

boris

"What does evangelical mean?"

Just a guess ... November unto Ceasar ...

narciso

One assumed this was true, but one gives them pointers for admitting it, in the LUN

Ignatz

--I'm a Bible believing Christian & I have no interest in Huckabee (unless he is my only non-Dem. choice).--

Janet,
As Martin Luther purportedly said, "I'd rather be ruled by a competent Turk than an incompetent Christian".
He was apparently silent on our present predicament of being ruled by an incompetent turkey.

Janet

Yeah Rob...the WaPo always loved him when he was governor of Arkansas. That tells ya something.

Captain Hate

Why does anybody pay attention to Steve Schmidt? Do the Repukes need their own version of Bob Shrum?

Janet

LOL Ignatz!

narciso

I think Jim Gut Tucker was seriously underrated (I'm only half kidding)

MayBee

If there is a warrant out for a criminal violation of the tax code, the sheriff will check that and notify authorities.
If there is a tax lien against your property, the IRS will be notified when you try to sell your property and they will be first in line to get their money.

So, while it isn't exactly and apples to apples comparison- the IRS has the top down ability to notify other entities when there has been a violation they need to deal with.
Not so with most immigration situations.

matt

aw DoT, I was just reminding said twit of the preponderance of data contradicting his childish faith in statism. Sort of like the location of Afghanistan on the continent of Asia.

MayBee

The New York Times would promote Huckabee because Huckabee doesn't hesitate to gin up anti-Mormon venom against Mitt Romney.

And Mitt Romney is the Republican this White House fears most.

MayBee

Oh sorry, New Yorker.

narciso

Well it is the New Yorker, tomato, tomatoe, I know, we can compare how they treated someone
who wasn't even a presidential candidate

Some realtors don't know that, though.

MayBee, no, the mortgage holder gets first crack at your house, then IRS. There would be rioting in the streets if the IRS tried to shake down the banks in such a fashion.
=================

Huck's a hater, his God knows.

But you are right about Romney and Huckabee and the MSM.
==============

Captain Hate

And Mitt Romney is the Republican this White House fears most.

Really? I'd certainly rather have Mitt than BOzo and appreciate what he did for Scott Brown, but he's a very uninspiring candidate and has a hard time adhering to a consistent position on a lot of issues.

I'm sure he could hang ten on a huge wave of discontent with the current denizens but I'd rather have somebody that the independents could get excited about.

David in Cal

Copy of letter to the Times:

To the Public Editor:

I'm an actuary married to a biostatistician. As you can imagine, we take statistics seriously in our household. Over the years I've been struck by the terrible statistical work done by most reporters, including those at the New York Times. For example, I recall a truly embarrassing study of the impact of the death penalty. I've written letters to the editors about some of these, but no critical letters were published.

Now a blogger has pointed out that your article on border violence in Arizona wrongly asserted that violence at the border had declined. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/20/us/20crime.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&pagewanted=all The Times link showed only that statewide violence had declined. Other statistics produced by the blogger showed that violence at the border had risen. http://justoneminute.typepad.com/

Furthermore, both the blogger and the Times made the mistake drawing conclusions from a single year's change. No reputable statistician would draw conclusions from such a limited period.

I urge you to note and correct this error. More broadly, I would urge the paper to have statistical conclusions reviewed by some qualified statistician. You wouldn't let reporters draw conclusions about physics or chemistry without appropriate review. Statistics seems simpler, but it is filled with pitfalls. This is a chance for the Times to correct an ongoing series of errors.


Cheers!

--David Skurnick

Rob Crawford

And Mitt Romney is the Republican this White House fears most.

Because of his socialist "health care" program?

MayBee

MayBee, no, the mortgage holder gets first crack at your house, then IRS. There would be rioting in the streets if the IRS tried to shake down the banks in such a fashion.

Oh, ok, sorry (and lol). But the main point was that the IRS will be informed about the transaction.

Ignatz

--And Mitt Romney is the Republican this White House fears most.--

Unfortunately, Mitt Romney is the Republican many Republicans fear most, including this one.

Thomas Collins

If the MSM folks are going to start being nice to Hucksterbee, it is because they think, of the plausible GOP candidates for POTUS in 2012, he would be the easiest for Obama to beat (depending on what happens to the economy, he may be the only one Obama could beat). And they are correct.

When Palin is inaugurated in January of 2013, I am going to have fun looking at the anguished faces both of libs and certain supposed conservatives who will be aghast that the US has selected someone whom they deem intellectually unworthy of the job. And then I am going to get even more joy out of MSM, over the course of her Administration, coming to the gradual realization that she has the smarts most needed in a POTUS, namely, Reagan-like understanding of what makes humans tick, and a relentless work ethic to accomplish her goals.

MayBee

I don't know exactly why- perhaps they believe Romney could draw Obama voters away (and be competent!)

If Jindal continues to impress in LA, look for someone to crawl out of the woodwork to bring up his Indian first name, his parents' Hinduism, etc.

This WH demonstrated, via it's manipulative use of BHO's middle name and religion, how potent they find those attacks. They'll use them.

brettrix

the Times also neglects to account that Phoenix (about 3 million pop.) is in Maricopa county. County Sheriff, Joe Arpaio, has made illegals unwelcome over the last 10 years. AZ has also enacted tough illegal alien enforcement efforts during the same time.

one more good thing about SB1070 is that it is already reducing traffic congestion on the highways - anecdotal maybe but then again, that's reality.

narciso

Well that was Blanco used to keep Jindal out of the Government mansion the first time, much like the weasel Knotts and co, tried against Haley

Rob Crawford

If Jindal continues to impress in LA, look for someone to crawl out of the woodwork to bring up his Indian first name, his parents' Hinduism, etc.

First round will be the MSM running photos of Jindal that have been "adjusted" to make his skin appear much, much darker. Then they'll start talking about his parents' Hinduism and his Roman Catholicism.

This is certain -- because it's exactly what the Democrats did in Louisiana. It's amazing to me to hear Dems go on and on about "code words" among conservatives and how bad we are for (supposedly) using them, while they make use of blatant bigotry.

narciso

Even the Saudis, are admitting that their vaunted rehabilitation program doesn't work,
they are not admitting the reason is their
Wahhabi traditions

Thomas Collins

See LUN (via Instapundit) for commentary on the NY Times article (which I believe was linked at JOM in another thread) about how many professional educators believe having a best friend is not a good thing for kids.

I really hope that all JOMers and others, whether devout believers or raving atheists, male gender, female gender, Z gender or whatever gender, whether we enjoy 420, whiskey or water, and whether we are transfixed or bored by the World Cup, realize the great stake we all have in fighting to dismantle the nanny state ("state" in this sense including not only governmental officials, but also those in nonprofit and for profit organizations supporting and administering the cult of forced therapy for all).

cathyf

Pofarmer, surely you understand the economic incentives that local school districts face. The state kicks in taxpayer funds on a per-pupil basis, but the costs usually decline sharply for each additional student, at least for small numbers of students.

So, for example, you have 50 second graders in your district, and 10 are illegals. Whether you have 40 kids or 50 kids, you still need two second grade teachers, two second grade classrooms, two slots of gym, art, music, computers. The costs that you could actually save by deporting the 10 kids (depreciation on 10 desks and chairs, decreased costs of water, soap, TP and paper towels in the restrooms...) are very minimal compared to the state money that would be lost.

I thought you lived in sparsely-populated and de-populating rural America like me. We have constantly shrinking enrollments, constantly having to eliminate and shrink programs, buildings which are decrepit, too big, in the wrong places (not where the kids are) and no money to build anything. Property values are low, houses stay on the market, many of them vacant, for years. I am absolutely sure that some chunk of our local Mexicans are illegals -- but they work hard, spend money here, and we all feel quite acutely the need for every warm body that we can get that keeps our community surviving.

Captain Hate

TC, thanks for linking that; I really enjoyed this comment: My son (entering 4th grade) informed me that at his elementary school the kids are supposed to list their best friends, and then the following year the school makes sure they are not in the same classes.

I told him to list the kids he liked least. And that he was learning a valuable lesson about the public schools, akin to what happens when you are honest about accidentally bringing a pocket knife. It's a sad, sick world.

MayBee

exactly, narc and Rob.

When Jindal was running for Gov (and eventually won), article after article on lefty blogs pointed out those things about Jindal-- under the cover of saying that if Republicans found out these things, they would not vote for him. It was never, of course, that *they* were using it against him. They were just so afraid someone else would.

They used his first name all the time- and they used George Allen's middle name all the time, too (It's Felix). I don't know if they wanted him to sound Jewish, or effeminate, or what. I suppose anything would do.

That's why it was so weird to me when the MSM bought the "don't use Obama's middle name" line from the left.

Rob Crawford

When Jindal was running for Gov (and eventually won), article after article on lefty blogs pointed out those things about Jindal-- under the cover of saying that if Republicans found out these things, they would not vote for him. It was never, of course, that *they* were using it against him. They were just so afraid someone else would.

Frankly, I think their audience was their own rank and file.

cathyf
You wouldn't let reporters draw conclusions about physics or chemistry without appropriate review.
David in Cal, I'm looking for the right word here... Yes, "charitable" would be it. I want to commend you for your great charity in characterizing a NYT editor's appreciation of needing review in matters chemistry or physics...
Clarice

cathyf, I expect you're right about the value of immigrants to rural communities. Perhaps instead of demonizing those who want to get a handle on illegal immigration, the pro-immigrant groups should expend a greater effort to integrate them into small communities.

Janet

("state" in this sense including not only governmental officials, but also those in nonprofit and for profit organizations supporting and administering the cult of forced therapy for all).

These are what need a closer look. Who funds these groups, and what are their connections to politicians? Like the list Matt put up of the organizations using Fenton Communications. Liberals are nuts about forcing all of us to participate in whatever their newest hobby or interest is. Their kid falls out of a swing, and next thing ya know, regular swings are banned at parks. They become vegetarians, and we have "meatless Mondays" at school.
It is not the religious right forcing their beliefs on everyone, it is the secular left.

Bill in AZ sez it's time for Zero to resign

If the MSM folks are going to start being nice to Hucksterbee, it is because they think, of the plausible GOP candidates for POTUS in 2012, he would be the easiest for Obama to beat (depending on what happens to the economy, he may be the only one Obama could beat). And they are correct.

When Palin is inaugurated in January of 2013, I am going to have fun looking at the anguished faces both of libs and certain supposed conservatives who will be aghast that the US has selected someone whom they deem intellectually unworthy of the job. And then I am going to get even more joy out of MSM, over the course of her Administration, coming to the gradual realization that she has the smarts most needed in a POTUS, namely, Reagan-like understanding of what makes humans tick, and a relentless work ethic to accomplish her goals.

Spot on comments, Thomas.

MSM tried a major push during the 08 primaries to convince us Huckabee was "our" chosen one. Major push by every outlet, but the backlash was so great in one week they went oops, backed off for one day, then fired up the presses with McCain as "our" chosen one.

It's too early for the major push yet, so they are just testing the waters. Watch them try Romney next week.

Pofarmer

Pofarmer, surely you understand the economic incentives that local school districts face. The state kicks in taxpayer funds on a per-pupil basis, but the costs usually decline sharply for each additional student, at least for small numbers of students.

Well, you've got 3 views on the problem. The local view, the State view, and the Federal view. The Feds are putting the least in the Pot, so, they really don't see the problem. The local are using, at least in MO, property tax revenues, that make up whatever percentage of funding, so they pretty much have that money no matter what, and the State has to chip in their share per student. The State, has to get it's money, in MO, from State income taxes, which are rapidly redlining, as they are in other states. MO recently announced 300 MILLION in cuts for next year, which is big in a state of approximately 6 million. The State sees only a dead expense now, to having children of illegals in school, there is very little upside, especially in states like Arizona, where the parents and students may actually live on the other side of the border. Here in MO, getting them to pay things like sales taxes have been a real problem, let alone the lack of all the other taxes collected when folks work for cash. No, it is a net drain for the State, and one which States are increasingly unable to afford.

cathyf

But you understand that the individual local districts respond to the incentives. For example, in IL, the state pays for busing, which gives schools an incentive to haul kids all about in order to make the most efficient use of buildings -- even though that can or can not be more expensive depending on the price of diesel fuel, and it certainly ends up with a lot more kids whose education is compromised by spending 4-5 hours every day riding around on buses.

It also gives district an incentive to make poor decisions about what schools to repair and what schools to abandon, since they can just move the kids with somebody-else's-budget. In IL, of course, the state is flat broke, and hasn't paid off on these incentives. So we could see districts spending even more money opening and closing buildings and moving stuff around.

Bill

Add the people that have been abandoned by coyotes and died of exposure to those stats, isn't that murder?

توبيكات

thanx for all

doc

Marx and Freud "expanded the frontiers of human knowledge" in the same sense that Lysenko expanded our understanding of biology.

Marx created a pseudo-religion complete with apocalypse (the inevitable collapse of capitalism and the resulting revolution) elect (the revolutionary proletariat) and heaven (the classless utopia that is the inevitable end of history). How a doctrine which is based on the belief that because all history is the history of class struggle that the inevitable result is a classless society came to be viewed as rational is beyond me. The intellectual deformations produced by Marx continue in American Universities to this day.

Freud didn't produce mass murder, but Freudian treatments of autism, schizophrenia, and manic depression produced needless suffering and delayed a real understanding of these diseases by decades.

Montana

The Tea Bag Party are just “haters not debaters” or as others have dubbed them “screamers not dreamers”, with their failed attempts at stopping Healthcare reform, they say they respect the Constitution, the Bill of Rights and the Declaration of Independence but they do not mind passing laws, through weak Governors (no one voted for this crazy) who only cares about getting elected Governor, on the backs of undocumented workers, that will not pass Constitution muster.

Brewer signed into law;

1. S.B. 1070,
2. No permit conceal weapons law,
3. The famous Birthers law,
4. Banning Ethnic studies law,

5. Could she be behind the Mural in Prescott, Arizona, ordered to be whiten,
6. On deck to pass, no citizenship to babies born to undocumented workers,

7. If she can read she should look up Arizona’s House Bill 2779 from two years ago (which was un-constitution and failed when legally challenged),
8. The boycotted Martin Luther King Day, what idiots don’t want another holiday? Yes, you guessed it Arizona.

Well Arizona, you can boycott new holidays and keep passing crazy laws and the rest of us will continue to challenged them in a court of law and continue to add cities to our Boycott of your state.

I real cannot believe anything that comes out of Brewer’s mouth, in an interview she first said her father had died in Germany fighting the Nazi in World War II (war ended 1945) but of course we find out the truth that father was never in Germany and died in California in 1955. But we are suppose to believe everything else she says, right! No one voted for you for Governor, yet you keep listening to the tiny brains of the crazies and signing into law everything that comes into their feeble minds, it only make you look dumb, stupid or racist, or maybe all three.

As for the Tea Bag Party, their phony patriotism is sickening; they are just racists going by another name. We all know you are just itching to put a sheet on their head? Let’s face it the Republicans had eight years to deal with health care, immigration, energy (remember Cheney’s secret meetings with oil companies where loosening regulation and oversight were sealed), climate change and financial oversight and governance and they failed. It appears that the Republican Party is only good at starting wars (two in eight years, with fat contracts to friends of Cheney/Bush) but not at winning wars as seen by the continuing line of body bags that keep coming home. The Republicans party will continue turned inward to their old fashion obstructionist party (and their Confederacy appreciation roots) because they continue to allow a small portions (but very loud portion) of their party of “birthers, baggers and blowhards” to rule their party. I will admit that this fringe is very good at playing “Follow the Leader” by listening to their dullard leaders, Beck, Hedgecock, Hannity, O’Reilly, Rush, Savage, Sarah Bailin, Orly Taitz, Victoria Jackson, Michele Bachmann and the rest of the Blowhards and acting as ill programmed robots (they have already acted against doctors that perform abortions).

The Birthers and the Tea Bag party crowd think they can scare, intimidate and force others to go along with them by comments like “This time we came unarmed”, let me tell you something not all ex-military join the fringe militia crazies who don’t pay taxes and run around with face paint in the parks playing commando, the majority are mature and understand that the world is more complicated and grey than the black and white that these simpleton make it out to be and that my friend is the point. The world is complicated and people like Hamilton, Lincoln, and Roosevelt believed that we should use government a little to increase social mobility, now it’s about dancing around the claim of government is the problem. The sainted Reagan passed the biggest tax increase in American history and as a result federal employment increased, but facts are lost when mired in mysticism and superstition. For a party that gave us Abraham Lincoln, it is tragic that the ranks are filled with too many empty suits and the crazy Birthers who have not learned that the way our courts work is that you get a competent lawyer, verifiable facts and present them to a judge, if the facts are real and not half baked internet lies, then, and only then, do you proceed to trial. The Birthers seem to be having a problem with their so called “Internet facts”. Let’s face it no one will take the Birthers seriously until they win a case, but until then, you will continue to appear dumb, crazy or racist, or maybe all three. I heard that Orly Taitz now wants to investigate the “Republican 2009 Summer of Love” list: Assemblyman, Michael D. Duvall (CA), Senator John Ensign (NV), Senator Paul Stanley (TN), Governor Mark Stanford (SC), Board of Ed Chair, and Kristin Maguire AKA Bridget Keeney (SC), she wants to re-establish a family values party, that is like saying that the Catholic Church cares about the welling being of children in their care, too late for that. Yee Haw!

bunkerbuster

Matt still can't climb down from his claim that "The Taliban were the terror of Asia." No surprise there, he's not in the game to play by facts anyway. And as for "statism," you're dead wrong again, Matt. You're the statist in this discussion, arguing for an authoritarian heavy-hand, long arm of the law approach to what is undeniably a market driven demand for cheap labor. I'm the one suggestion market solutions: 1. dramatically increase quotas for legal immigration. 2. increase penalties and enforcement for illegal employers, while offering amnesty for illegal worker testimony leading to conviction.

bunkerbuster

Amen Montana! Teabagger protests do at least offer the opportunity to drive by and shout: ``Get a job!''

Bradley J. Fikes

Excellent post, Tom! This is one journalist who appreciates what you're doing.

Bunkerbuster has the same name, and sounds a lot like, a tiresome troll who has been banned from Patterico.

Pofarmer

a tiresome troll who has been banned from Patterico.

I think that would be a wise move to copy.

matt

go screw, moron.....you wouldn't know the facts if they bit you in the ass.

MikeC

My bride-to-be is a 1st-generation American; her Mom came to the States from Sri Lanka. Her family applied for legal residency through the U.S. consulate, then applied for citizenship after they arrived here.

She has absolutely no patience whatsoever with illegal immigrants. She thinks, correctly, that Mexican immigrants should have to abide by the same procedures that Sri Lankans do. Not to do so would be... discrimination.

You liberals are the real racists.

bunkerbuster

Here's a tip for you Bradley: when you're a blogger who's so dull-minded your idea of journalism is "publishing" recycled tidbits from other wingnut blogs under your own byline, you may want to avoid referring to yourself as "we journos." Lol… Beyond that, a simple question: why are you claiming that rural = border? Virtually all of Northern and Central Arizona are rural, far away from the border. So if you want a stat that tells you what's happening "at the border," the rural figure doesn't cut it. Maybe if you spent a little less time at blogs that rigorously ban dissent, you'd be forced realize that everything you read in wingnut blogs may not be true. That might make you quite sad in the beginning, but then again it might prevent you from saying moronic things like your ludicrous "we journos'' rip-off of Tom's comment.
Tom's slicing and dicing of the stats merely shows that there has been a numerically small increase in RURAL crime over the past 8 years that can be made to look bigger because the population is small and getting smaller. Tom provides no statistics, zip, zilch, nada, about what's happening "at the border." Ultimately, he makes EXACTLY THE SAME MISTAKE the Times did, which is to stretch the stats a little to fit the prose. Whereas the Times stretches the surprising, newsworthy and rock-solid factual decline in overall state crime to claim a drop "at the border," Tom stretches the statistically marginal increase in rural crime to claim an increase "at the border."

acai max cleanse

Really very informative and interesting site.There are many tips who is very useful for me.thanks a lot. There were 74 murders in 2007 in Pima County - down substantially from the 92 murders reported in 2000 but up substantially from the 53 murders reported in 2001.

bunkerbuster

In rural Arizona -- that's all non-metro counties north, east, west and along the border -- there were 4 murders and nonnegligent manslaughters in 2008. That compares with 398 in the metro areas. So when Tom talks about crime "increasing" per 100,000 people in rural areas, that should give you a sense of why the proportional increase is of little relevance. And then there's the point that the stats don't say anything about where the murders took place. They could have all been in Flagstaff, while there may have been ZERO "at the border."

Bradley J. Fikes

Tom, a professor writing at the Boston Globe, James Alan Fox, has found fault with your article. You might want to read it and critique its assumptions.

Don Quixote

This post is complete BS and what a shame that it will be picked up by so many nativist groups as support for their cause. I looked at the same data from the FBI and here are my conclusions:

1. The FBI gives an in-your-face popup disclaimer that warns against using regional data due to the many factors that affect its accuracy. You failed to mention this? In the case of AZ the non metropolitan results vary greatly and you can get just about any answer you want by picking a year with lower violent crime than 2008 in rural areas. For example, if I use '07 and '06, I would conclude the exact opposite of what you have concluded: that violent crime is indeed trending down in AZ, EVEN IN RURAL AREAS. Even the rural population numbers vary incoherently making that data highly suspect.

2. Over 92% of violent crime occurs in the cities in AZ.

3. Most undocumented immigrants are in the cities, not in higher unemployment rural areas.

4. Rural areas in AZ are distributed all over the state, and clearly not concentrated in the border areas. Most of the rural population is hundreds of miles from the borderlands. Rural life in the borderlands is harder, and dominated by sparsely populated high acreage spreads and Native American reservations.

5. You have no reference point at the federal level or in other border and non-border states. Maybe rural crime is trending up nationally due to other factors like a slowing economy affecting them more than cities?

The overall conclusion is that you are very deceitful in your convenient selection of data. It is glaringly obvious that you already knew the answer and simply were cherry picking data to support your preconceived conclusion. This is an age-old trick and you should be ashamed that so many people will be misled, many of whom have alterior motives (racism, etc.). Those who are gifted with analytical and mathematical skills have a moral responsibility to speak the truth and not use those skills to deceive and mislead.

I strongly suggest you issue a retraction or at least a clarification. You accuse the Times of "statistical incoherence," but what you're doing goes well beyond that.

doc

1. dramatically increase quotas for legal immigration. 2. increase penalties and enforcement for illegal employers, while offering amnesty for illegal worker testimony leading to conviction.

Your solutions are poorly thought out. 1) will do nothing to reduce illegal immigration. Do you really think illegals are going to see increased legal immigrants and say that's it, let's go home? It's also an insane policy in a probably lengthy period of high unemployment and sluggish wage growth.

2)Will accomplish nothing. An illegal turning in his employer would cause all of his co-workers to lose their jobs. I really doubt that many would be willing to do this.

win

The FBI UCR statistics do not include all violent crime, nor do they consider the effects of plea bargaining. Only the most serious offense in a multiple-offense criminal incident is counted.

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