Those Who Do Not Understand National Income Accounting...

Those who do not understand national income accounting our condemned to be heckled by those who would rather be doing anything else.  By way of Memeorandum we encounter Matt Yglesias writing on the "No stimulus" economy.  Matt draws inspiration from the "Worthwhile Canadian Initiative", which has this to say about the current US fiscal position:

There has been much talk of the size of the US federal stimulus, and much debate about whether or not it has been an effective counter-cyclical policy instrument.

But it's important to remember that the proper measure for fiscal stimulus is not spending by the federal government; it is spending by all levels of government. And when you look at the contributions to US GDP growth (Table 1.1.2 at the BEA site), total government spending has been a drag on growth over the past two quarters. The increases at the federal level have not been enough to compensate for the spending cuts at the local and state levels.

Well, well.  I will accept that total, rather than Federal government spending is the relevant measure.  However, the BEA has a specific concept of government spending in mind in performing their GDP calculations (see below, or here, p. 10), and it does not include transfer payments or tax reductions. 

Consequently, one wonders about the statement that "it's important to remember that the proper measure for fiscal stimulus is... spending by all levels of government".  Since a lot of the government stimulus (such as unemployment payments, income tax cuts, cash for clunkers, and the housing tax credit) won't appear in the "Government expenditures" line, one might infer that this BEA measure of government spending is not the be-all and end-all measure of government-inspired fiscal stimulus.

And one might wonder whether Matt is fully reality-based with comments like this:

...all the Obama administration’s efforts plus the automatic stabilizers have done is mitigate the contractionary impact of state and local policy:

or this:

Looked at comprehensively, what the country has been implementing is a mild version of the conservative policy prescription for boosting growth—fire bureaucrats and trim spending. And it’s not working very well.

Conservatives would have welcomed more tax cuts; that said, a lot of the transfer payments favored by libs and adopted by Obama didn't show up in the government expenditures line on which Matt is focusing.  These BEA numbers just don't provide a basis for sweeping statements about whether the net government fiscal impact has been stimulative or not, since they do not include the automatic stabilizers or the tax stimuli.

A parting thought - if the Democrats had cut income and payroll taxes in half but held government spending (as characterized by the BEA) constant, would that have been widely considered to be fiscally expansionary?  If so, how would that be squared with the assertion that "the proper measure for fiscal stimulus is... spending by all levels of government"? 

THE BEA AND GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES:  From their guide on national income accounting:

The value of government production, that is, government’s gross output, is measured by the cost of inputs: Compensation of employees, CFC (a partial measure of the services of government capital), and intermediate goods and services purchased.20 Therefore, government consumption expenditures is measured as the sum of these costs of production less sales by government of goods and services to other sectors (which are classified as PCE, if purchased by individuals, or as intermediate inputs, if purchased by businesses) and the value of software and construction that are produced by government for its own use (that is, own-account investment, which is classified as part of gross government investment).

Gross investment consists of purchases of new structures and of equipment and software by both general government and government enterprises, net purchases of used structures and equipment, and own-account production of structures and of software. Government consumption expenditures and gross investment does not include current transactions of government enterprises, current transfer payments, interest payments, subsidies, or transactions in financial assets and in nonproduced assets such as land.

AND A LITTLE CHILD SHALL LEAD THEM:  Ezra Klein joins in with the same uncritical spin [and adds an unlinked correction].  From Ezra:

As everyone knows, the federal government is still spending a $700 billion stimulus package passed at the beginning of 2009. As most people know, state and local governments have had to sharply cut spending because the recession has decimated their tax revenues. But as fairly few people know, these two forces are canceling each other out.

Hmmph.  From Obama's Recovery.gov, we see this summary of the stimulus bill:

The Recovery Act intends to achieve those goals by:

Providing $288 billion in tax cuts and benefits for millions of working families and businesses

Increasing federal funds for education and health care as well as entitlement programs (such as extending unemployment benefits) by $224 billion

Making $275 billion available for federal contracts, grants and loans

The $288 billion of tax cuts won't be in the BEA figures as presented above.  Increased funding for education would be if it represents teacher's salaries, but not if it is taken up by student scholarships and grants; unemployment benefits won't be in the BEA figures, since they are a transfer payment.

I would guess that the $275 billion for " federal contracts, grants and loans" would mostly be included in the BEA analysis as a government expenditure, but I won't make any promises.

So unless Ezra has some other $700 billion of Federal stimulus in mind, his comment about federal expansion being offset by state and local contraction is not supported by the evidence on offer.

EZRA'S UNLINKED CONNECTION:  Ezra does not update his original post but seekers will find this new one:

A friend writes in to complicate my post yesterday that used data from the national income and product account data to look at total governmental spending, and thus total governmental stimulus:

As per your post yesterday on how state/local policies are cancelling out federal policies, beware that the BEA's National Income and Product Account tables (the source for the graph) doesn't take into account transfer payments, such as UI or TANF. Those instead show up as boosting spending in the consumer expenditure category. Also, NIPA tables don't measure the extent that federal tax cuts have expanded fiscal policy or tax and fee increases from state and local governments have cancelled out federal expansionary policy because it's just looking at the spending side.

Uhh, does that "complicate" Ezra's post,or obliterate it? 

Comments

[Ignatz]

It's absurd to count government spending at any level as "product" in the first place.
It is a parasitical derivative of actual production; either immediately through taxation or eventually as debt.
Counting deficit spending as production is especially egregious as it is the equivalent of me declaring my gross production up because I acquired a new and larger mortgage.
Whereas, counting non deficit government spending as production is merely the equivalent of me claiming my production has increased if I purchase a house for cash.

[Rob Crawford]

...all the Obama administration’s efforts plus the automatic stabilizers have done is mitigate the contractionary impact of state and local policy:

It's "contractionary" because, apparently, growth only comes from government spending.

[anduril]

With the caveat that I'm no economist, my fear is simply this: that whether or not government stimulus might theoretically work to pull us out, we've allowed things (debt buildup) to go so far that by this point we're in a damned if we do damned if we don't position. I.e., government stimulus will only add instability, and austerity will make it more difficult for government to meet already existing obligations.

[Clarice]

Is National Income Accounting the system that considers profit part of overhead?

[steve sturm]

I will accept that cumulative government spending is the relevant measure.

I disagree. The amount of government spending (whether the federal or a combined federal/state/local level) is far less important than whether the government spending inspires public confidence... as it is public confidence that drives the economy and thus any recovery.

The problem with the Obama stimulus isn't that it was too large or too small, it was that the public never viewed it as a solution to our economic problems... we never thought it would do any good and it thus didn't do any good.

[NK]

This whole "Stimulus Package" discussion is laughable, and Matt Y. knows as much about national accounting and national wealth creation as he does about fornicating. Honest Keynesians and monetarist economists will tell you that Lord Keynes was on to something in the early 1930s in the context of the US being the world's largest CREDITOR NATION spending down NATIONAL SAVINGs through government spendingto increase demand and end the asset deflation. Likewise at the time Lord K recommended that the UK leverage some Imperial assets to raise the cash to spend, as the Empire lacked Gold and currency reserves held by the US. Lord Keynes was certainly not suggesting the world's largest DEBTOR nation raise more debt to spend. My crystal ball says Lord Keynes would have been horrified at his ideas being knowingly and grossly abused by smart guys like Krugman and misunderstood by dimwits like Matt K. (although he would have approved what the Chineses did last year as they were the world's largest creditor nation). Whether or not the dead Lord would have approved, 16 months of history now confirms the insanity of responding to the crazy debt induced 2008 credit crisis with -- MORE CRAZY DEBT. What the Obamaniacs did was just nuts, but in their minds it was a necessary payoff to AFSCME and Teachers' unions with a little taste for the sap low income voters. It was a pure Chicago payoff, South Side chapter. Discraceful. Krugman was a very very bad man lying through his teeth about this; Matt Y? He's a fool who was just cheering on his side, Matt's lack of credibility is just not worth thinking about.

[East Bay Jay]

This seems to be the only available road for the 'Stimulate, Baby, Stimulate' crowd - we just didn't spend enough so by golly we need to do it again (and again) and make it even bigger. Even the all mighty MSM can't lift this turd though.

But the MSM will 'thumb the scale' in that the MSM will be holding Keynesians responsible for....absolutely nothing. Dots, dots? What dots? The MSM was all over the 'Neocons destroyed America with the invasion of Iraq (and a slightly off balance human pyramid)' story. Even if the economy goes in the toilet will anyone in the MSM point a finger at Dr. Krugman? Hell no. They'll report the good doctor was right all along and the lack of success is a result of poor execution (how can one manage the economy with the knuckle dragging teabaggers around?) leaving Keynesian theory around to take down another country in the wake of taking down Japan and the US.

Meanwhile, neocon is still a prejorative, and will be even if we leave Iraq as a stable democracy.

[anduril]

Meanwhile, neocon is still a prejorative, and will be even if we leave Iraq as a stable democracy.

I'm from MO.

[Reality Show of Hands.]

They'll still use it as a pejorative when they find Saddam's WMD in Syria. It is code for Jew. Or a sympathizer, thereof.

LUN read the glacier data thread
===============

[lyle]

Didn't Keynes famously announce a few years prior to his death that "he was no longer a Keynsian"? (Couldn't find it in a shamelessly brief Google search.)

But I wonder what his alliterative comrade, Krugman, would think about this Keynes quote: “The difficulty lies not so much in developing new ideas as in escaping from old ones.”

[patch]

Matt Yglesias is a dumbxxs!

Unlike the Feds, the states and localities cannot run deficits.

[Keynesian Cripple Lite.]

If there were still phone booths, Krugman would duck into them periodically to admire the big red 'K' on his chest.
=====================

[Old Lurker]

State and Local governments can and do run deficits. They simply borrow to cover the spending that exceeds income.

They cannot print money like the Feds can.

[Melinda Romanoff]

I have a few punchcards, kim, will that help Lonnie recall?

[bgates]

Why do you spend so much time on the Juice Box Mafia? There must be some 6th-year senior at your kids' high school with an Yglesias-level understanding of the world who could conceivably be saved - work on him. (Ask your kids if there's anybody who hangs out with the AP Government teacher and gets suspended a lot for huffing paint thinner, that'll be your guy.)

[He's done research in the field that is difficult to replicate, coring glaciers in the deep boonies.]

Hu McCulloch, also of Ohio State University, asked Lonnie Thompson if he was the source of the hockey stick graph in 'An Inconvenient Truth' which is advertised as another hockey stick besides Michael Mann's. Actually, it has the shaft of Mann's, which is really the most wrong part of it. Thompson is listed as a consultant for the movie. His wife and research partner answered that they were not responsible for correcting the error.

Steve McIntyre won't go so far as to say it, but I suspect Thompson won't archive his data because it doesn't say what he's claimed it says. Maybe he's just an insecure researcher worried that McIntyre will find the work statistically deficient, but I form my opinion about the pair from his wife's response; they aren't responsible.

Judy Curry is a real hero in the climate wars, but in this thread she demonstrates the enabling by other researchers that allowed the Thompsons, the Manns, the Briffas, the Jones and the so many others to scientifically misbehave.
==================

[Janet]

This is sorta related because it comes from a speech given by Richard Fisher. Financial Reform or Financial Dementia? via RCP

I have no idea about the financial content, but here is the joke -
A couple is deciding where to dine on their 10th wedding anniversary. They settle on the Ocean View Restaurant because that is where the beautiful, hard-bodied people go. On their 20th anniversary, they discuss where to celebrate, and they agree again on the Ocean View because the wines and the food are superb. For their 30th, they return to the Ocean View once more, having agreed that, as they sit there in silence, the view from the terrace is second to none. On their 40th anniversary, they agree that the Ocean View is just right because it has wheelchair access and an elevator to get them to the porch overlooking the ocean. On their 50th, they want to do something truly special to celebrate. So they decide to go to the Ocean View … because they have never been there before.

[Danube of Thought]

Does this guy actually think that "government spending" is stimulative, without regard to what it is spent on?

[Extraneus]

Keynsianism has got to be the most convenient theory ever invented.

They were counting on a natural rebound, having nothing to do with the stimulus, for which they could take credit after wasting so much money. Now, it's the unspent state money that's the problem. That's pretty convenient, too.

One more step in logic and they can lament the fact that government spending sapped the economy of private spending. Otherwise, it surely would have worked.

[jimmyk]

I'd just love to have these Keynesians say in advance what their preferred policy is going to accomplish--and they can include whatever contingencies they want--so long as they promise to admit they are wrong if it doesn't turn out the way they say it will. As it is, no matter what happens there is always some weaselly explanation for why it really did work even though the economy is still in the tank.

[Old Lurker]

Jimmyk, that famous graph of unemployment with and without the stimulus bill spending was pretty much exactly that.

[gmax]

I am not going to have an economic argument with little kids chanting something over and over again. It wont be productive, and what the kids need is a swift and sure spanking. The spanking will come in November, and the proof that the funds for my union friends spending, err ahh, stimulus was ill conceived will be irrefutable by then, well except that the children will likely still be chanting at the top of their lungs.

[anduril]

It is code for Jew. Or a sympathizer, thereof.

Huh. This interests me. Does this word "neoconservative" mean the same thing when Jews use it as when Gentiles use it? Does it change with the, uh, persuasion of the speaker?

For example, some Jews will say, hey, is this guy part of the Tribe? And they mean, Is he a Jew? But "neoconservative" might only mean, well, he's at least simpatico? Not really very useful, and yet I hear Jews use the word--and pejoratively, too! What does it mean when a Jew uses it pejoratively?

This is very puzzling.

[scott]

Looks like obama's getting tough per Brett Baier he told NBC news he holds meetings so he knows "whose ass to kick". Oh brother, those moobs are packed and ready to go "moob, moob, firepower!! you couldn't write this stuff. Incredible

[So close, and yet, so far.]

The puzzlement will do you good, anduril; let's hope for a breakthrough insight. You are all around it.
===================

[anduril]

Well, I'll take it that this word has an incommunicable meaning, then. You get it or you don't, but if you don't it can't be explained.

[Suppose you tell me what the word means to you.]

Take what you like, but you still don't get it.
===================

[cathyf]

What I don't see discussed is that the every-expenditure-is-special pork fest is killing what does more or less work about the government.

Classic example: our local Meals On Wheels program got a federal grant for $20,000 to buy a new van for meal delivery. At the same time, the feds owe the program over $200,000 for reimbursements for food. (As in, yes, that's right, they won't need a van if there is no food to deliver...)

Another: Illinois just laid off 17,000 teachers, but we're wallowing in federally-supplied smartboards and computers.

In Chicago, you don't just go to the store and buy a garbage can to put your garbage in. You get your garbage can "for free" -- but it comes from your democrat precinct captain. And the garbage collectors will not pick up your garbage unless it is in a can which you can only get from a precinct captain. This is what the rest of you don't understand about the essence of the Chicago Way -- you make every government service a personal favor from a democrat politician, who you "owe one" to for the favor.

[anduril]

Irving Kristol wrote the book on this and I thought I understood it, but I guess I just don't. My Jewish friends tell me that "Jewish" means all kinds of things, but it seems to mean something very definite to you. So when you say Neocon = Jew/Jew sympathizer, I'm still at a bit of a loss. What's a Jew?

[anduril]

cathyf, could you hold the OT stuff please?

[Ranger]

Does this guy actually think that "government spending" is stimulative, without regard to what it is spent on?

Posted by: Danube of Thought | June 07, 2010 at 06:30 PM

Of course he does. CBO just takes the money spent on "stimulous" and multiplies it by X (given that X is greater than 1) to determine how much economic acivity it created. That's how all the "smart" economists deal with this stuff.

[bunkerbuster]

GDP vs Dow in the first five quarters of U.S. presidencies:

-1.4% GDP Obama so far -- Dow UP 43%
1.2% Bush same period -- Dow UP 6%
3.0% Clinton same period -- Dow UP 11.6%
1.5% Reagan same period -- Dow DOWN 19%

Not much correlation there, but as regards the Obama rally, shouldn't wingnuts be asking themselves what Wall Street knows that they don't?

[bunkerbuster]

chauvinist is a good synonym for neoconservative. their basic principle is that might makes right. and no one should blame them for being ashamed of their track record in American geopolitics...

[Jane says obamasucks]

Anduril,

You are truly as ass.

[All argument is a matter of definition. What is all blather?]

Asked to define 'Neoconservative' anduril tells me he can't define 'Jew'. And bunkerbuster sounds like Pere Ubu is in his family tree.
==================

[bunkerbuster]

Kind of says it all about the level of self-disgust conservatives have that they would try to spin "neoconservative" as a slur...

[I knew we'd find one if we looked hard enough.]

Jane, it's a useful comparison. cathyf's stuff is always way worth reading, off topic or not, because the analysis is so acute and complete. On the other hand, anduril's stuff is sometimes very interesting, and sometimes just about worthless.

Ah, bunker, those 'self-hating neocons'. anduril, we've found a playmate for you.
==========

[Danube of Thought]

I have seen no evidence that anyone using the term "neoconservative" on this site has the slightest idea what it means. And no, I'm not going to enlighten them.

I note that in Obama's first seventeen months unemployment is up 30%, and since the Democrats took congress it has doubled.

Meanwhile ABC News reports that the American people consider the federal response to the oil spill to be worse than it was for Katrina.

Heckuva job, Barry.

[Melinda Romanoff]

Cathyf-

I've been trying to explain it, but I don't think they're believin' me, either...

[anduril]

You are truly as ass.

What's left for me to say? And it would have been so clever and articulate if she'd just been able to spell a two-letter word correctly.

[Jane says obamasucks]

For any of you guys following that turd vandersloot, has anyone heard what his mother is saying?

[Clarice]

Left flunks econ 101=

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703561604575282190930932412.html?mod=WSJ_ne>Not surprising

[Threadkiller]

If one can be "good as gold" maybe it is correct usage to label one "truly as ass".

It has been a while since I brushed up on my conjunction junction functions though.

[anduril]

Asked to define 'Neoconservative' anduril tells me he can't define 'Jew'.

Nooooo. That's not how it worked at all. You were the one who offered a definition of "Neocon." I asked you: "What's a Jew?" Because you seemed so confident when you used "Jew" to define "Neocon." I have no such confidence in my ability to define phenomena in reality in conceptual terms, although I would venture a phenomenological description, perhaps. And within that description I would be careful to point out that, among those who could be called "Jews," those who could be called "Neocons" are a small minority. And the converse holds true as well, which I suppose is why you threw in the "sympathizer" bit, a fuzzy word if ever there was one. You, however, when you say that "Neocon" is a "code word," suggest that it's a word with a highly specialized and definite meaning--what else could "code word" mean? Well, then, you tell me!

[Ann]

Here is the video of Obama saying he is going to kick ass:

Mom jeans going to kick some ass

Pathetic.

[chip]

Canada reduced their debt in the 1990s not because they cut spending -- they didn't -- but because they slowed spending growth at a time when commodity prices went through the roof, a goods and services tax took effect and the Free Trade Agreement with the US increased tax revenue from exporters.

The federal Canadian government also shifted expenditures to the provinces, particularly health care. Partly as a result, the largest province, Ontario, currently has a C$22 billion deficit.

To put this in perspective, this is 3.5 times the per capita deficit of California.

[Enough of your sophistry and judenhass.]

By code, anduril, I simply meant that it is a word used instead of 'jew' often, and by those too cowardly to actually use the word.
==================

[cathyf]

True story, I'll let you decide whether it is on or off topic...

One time I was gabbing with my best friend's husband about various topics, and the question of "why can't geeks understand accounting?" came up. Ok, the context: the questioner was the head of the documentation/training department for a major cell-phone hardware manufacturer. We had discussed on other occasions that the documentation and training is considered a "cost center" and something that does not "produce revenue" because the company included the manuals and training with the products and didn't charge separately for it.

So I averred that it isn't at all that the tech-doc people don't understand accounting, it is that they understand all too well that the purpose of the accounting system is to steal the credit from them for the revenue attributable to them and give it to other groups (engineering, manufacturing and sales). By which I mean that if the customer is only buying the stuff because the docs and training make the stuff usable, then all of the profits attributable to the sale of that stuff should go to the doc/training group. My friend protested that this is the economic definition of profit (he was an undergrad econ major for awhile) and that is not the same as the accounting definition of profit.

I said exactly so -- economics is a behavioral science. So if you want to explain people's behavior, you use the behavioral science definition.

[Ann]

OT,

I just can't wait till Malia knocks on the bathroom door tomorrow morning.

"Daddy, have you kicked ass yet?

:)

[Dismal as climate science. Apparently as post normal, too.]

Conjunction junction function. Very good, tk. cathyf, please, dare to be off topic, so anduril can be as ass.
=================

[Janet]

Run in fear. The ass kicker is coming for YOU!

Well you don't really have to run too fast.

[Jane says obamasucks]

What's left for me to say? And it would have been so clever and articulate if she'd just been able to spell a two-letter word correctly.

How embarrassing - and the word I spelled wrong was "an", not a bit 3 letter word like "the". As you said, you would think someone capable of identifying a complete, unmitigated asshole, would be able to spell a two letter word.

But alas, I never learned how to spell that word. And yet, my inability to spell "an" takes nothing away from the point that you are an asshole.

[Ann]

I don't know who told him to say that but it was stupid. There are just to many pictures to make fun of:

Where is hit? We need a poster. :)

[Pofarmer]

BTW Narcisco.

Just wanted you to know that one of your cryptic references got me hooked on firefly.

[anduril]

cathyf, there's an important point in your anecdote--one that Yves Smith stresses. If econ is a behavioral "science"--and I can accept that as a working description--then mathematics based models may be helpful within limits but should not be trusted too far. IOW, if human nature can't be defined in terms of mathematics, then human behavior probably can't be predicted with the precision that some economists would like to believe they can bring to the subject.

[Janet]

If BP had only plugged the damn hole I wouldn't have to be riding in this grass looking for some ass to kick....

Where's the road?! Anyone seen the road? I think I'm caught on a tar ball....

[Clarice]

ann, Didn't you love last night's spandex whale suit with the ass wrap?

[narciso]

I think we really do have Urkel as President, what kind of reaction is that

[anduril]

Jane, if that made you feel better, then that's great.

That picture of Obama--he looks like what we used to call a "femme." Take a closer look. Michelle looks like she'd like to join in.

[Janet]

Pofarmer, I love Firefly. The actor that plays Jayne writes for Breitbart on Big Hollywood...Adam Baldwin.

[Janet]

How am I gonna kick ass if I can't even open this hot sauce? Damn, someone call Michelle over here...she's the one with the toned arms.

[centralcal]

Well, I would like to kick a certain ass or two . . . one, out of the WH, one out of JOM.

But, hey, it won't happen.

The silver whale suit was so fitting (snort) I thought! Loved the flap (fin?) in back to cover the rear end.

Bloated and not exactly "toned." Sue, had it nailed long ago - her stylist secretly hates her.

[Ann]

Clarice:

I swear that mean dress assistant was going for a large bottom feeding, Gulf Mermaid look. She got the necklace just right.

I have yet to see a full frontal picture. As you might guess, I can't wait. :)

[Jane says obamasucks]

Hannity just had some guy on who demonstrated that hay soaks up 75% of its weight in oil. The demonstration was incredible. (Polyester does the same thing but gets about 95%)

[The ears have it, not the eyes.]

Janet, that's an amazing photo. Look at the juxtaposition with the picture on the wall in the background. Waddya think, glas?
=============

[narciso]

Firefly is very emblematic of the Tea Party sensibility, they wanted to be left alone by the Alliance, but they chose to push back out
there on the frontier

[anduril]

Christopher Hitchens, I hate to say it, gets some things right:

http://www.slate.com/id/2256168/

I hope that by now the state of Israel regrets its past collaboration with some of the worst elements in modern Turkey. It's not so long since American Jewish lobby groups, and reportedly even the Israeli ambassador in Washington, were successfully lobbying Congress to vote down the resolution condemning the genocide of the Armenians. (The narrow passage of the resolution this year seems to have contributed to the increasingly evident paranoia and megalomania of Turkey's thuggish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.) And, even as Turkish troops occupied one-third of Cyprus and expelled one-third of its Greek population, as well as mounted illegal incursions into Iraq in pursuit of rebel Kurds, the Israeli armed forces happily embarked on joint exercises with them. If this era of unseemly collaboration is over, then so much the better. Even so, there's something slightly hypocritical about the way in which Israeli crowds have suddenly discovered the human rights record and the regional imperial ambitions of their former ally.

But then Hitchens takes out after Hamas, the activists and the humanitarians. At very considerable length. I'll let you go to the article and read that for yourselves--no point in quoting that here, right?

This part's pretty good, too:

The near-incredible stupidity of the Israeli airborne descent on the good ship Mavi Marmara, by troops well-enough equipped to shoot when panicked but not well-enough prepared to contain or subdue a preplanned riot, has now generated much more coverage and comment than Erdogan's cynical recent decision to become a partner in the nuclear maneuvers of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. It has also generated much more coverage and comment than Erdogan's long-term design to de-secularize Turkey, a design in which his recent big-mouth grandstanding on Gaza is a mere theatrical detail. What on earth are self-proclaimed humanitarian activists—as they will soon enough be called at this rate—doing in such an open alliance between one cruel and bankrupt Iranian theocracy, one religio-nationalist Turkish demagogue, and Hamas? Israeli self-pity over Gaza—"You fire rockets at us! And after all we've done for you!"—may be incredibly unappetizing. An occupation that should never have been allowed in the first place was protracted until it became obviously unbearable for all concerned and then turned into a scuttle. The misery and shame of that history cannot be effaced by mere withdrawal or healed by the delivery of aid. It can only really be canceled by a good-faith agreement to create a Palestinian state. But Hamas is a conscious obstacle to this objective, as it shows by its dependence on foreign dictatorships and by the criminal and violent methods it has used against Fatah and the PLO.

And how's this for a conclusion?

As well as being the two most intimate allies of the United States in the region, Turkey and Israel possess large and educated populations that want in their way to be part of "the West." They also both suffer from mediocre and banana-republic-type leaders, who are willing prisoners of clerical extremists in their own second-rate regimes. Turkey cannot be thought of as European until it stops lying about Armenia, gets its invading troops out of Cyprus, and grants full rights to its huge Kurdish population. Israel will never be accepted as a state for Jews, let alone as a Jewish state, until it ceases to govern other people against their will. The flotilla foul-up, pitting former friends against each other, only serves to obscure these unignorable facts.

[The love of numbers is the root of all evil.]

Yep, econ. is dismally only semi-science. And the devil disappears and the angel arrives.
=========

[Janet]

Yeah Kim...2 sleepy boys. One is painted & one looks like he's been sniffing paint.

[Pofarmer]

Pofarmer, I love Firefly. The actor that plays Jayne writes for Breitbart on Big Hollywood...Adam Baldwin.

Didn't know that, I'll have to check it out.

[Hitchens, like anduril, is thought provoking.]

It's really too bad that Erdogan doesn't understand that Ataturk's secularization may well be the reason they have become a modern democratic state, as opposed to nearly every Islamist(note I don't say Islamic) nation.

Sure, it's time for the Palestinians to govern themselves. It was time 62 years ago.
============

[narciso]

That's a silly argument, that would be like Hitchens what would the obligations of a Kurdistan against Turkey, Syria, Iran et al
or if Chalabi became PM that of Iraq, excuse
me old chap forget about 1958, 1963, 1975,
and 1991, but your're being rather beastly
in defending yourself

[Ann]

Jane:

Thanks for the h/t at youtoocongress.com. You didn't have to do that but thankies anyway.

Any more podcasts? You have fans here dontcha know.

[Janet]

Kim, Is Kim really your name? I think I just picked it up from others. It might be top secret or something, but I just wondered.

[jimmyk]

that famous graph of unemployment with and without the stimulus bill spending was pretty much exactly that.

Except for the part about promising to admit they're wrong. They just shift the goal posts.

[Ignatz]

Jane, Jane, Jane. You only lasted 4 days.
Back on the wagon with you.

[Melinda Romanoff]

I like the fact that econometrics is an impure science. It means that there is way, way more room for research, and to hone the models.

The theories of Smith and Ricardo work in large populations, and are measureable.

The portion of the population that can't believe that it's possible to forecast economic activities of the general populace.

Pity, that.

[peter]

Our Prez looks baked in that photo.

[narciso]

This is what happens when you self medicate before you blog, Turtledove on acid, is what
I'd call it

[Stephanie knows of a butt that could plug the damn hole]

Kelsey Grammar hits a sour note re the Ford Theatre Gala...

As for Lincoln, "he gave his life so that a president like Obama could come along."

LUN

[Melinda Romanoff]

jimmyk-

When was the last time you heard 'saved or created"?

[Old Lurker]

Can't help you there, Jimmy. Lib-Progs are simply never ever wrong about anything. No matter the evidence. Think Baghdad Bob of Politics/Economics.

Iggy, when Jane falls off, it is sudden and swift. Probably has something to do with her inability to spell two letter words, or something important like that.

[Ignatz]

--Iggy, when Jane falls off, it is sudden and swift.--

OL,
I know the feeling and have been known to take a tumble myself occasionally.
Easy to do with the kind of sad individual who delights in ridiculing others typos and getting defensive about his own, rather worse ones. Very sad.

[Ann]

Needs some more work but:

WHOSE GOING TO KEEP SOME ASS?

[jimmyk]

What happened to DFTT? I was enjoying seeing certain posts just wither on the vine as everyone just skipped right past them. I don't care if someone is said to be occasionally "thought provoking"; it's not worth wading through the muck.

[Ann]

Oops disregard that one above, lol:

WHOSE GOING TO KICK SOME ASS?

[Melinda Romanoff]

Ann-

The first is just fine with ranchers, BTW.

Within defined fences, no wandering off the range, and so on...

[Ann]

Note to self:

I must quit posting pictures of MO. I get my large and in charge, keeping and kicking mixed up.

[Danube of Thought]

Hell, keeping some ass is sometimes a pretty good idea if you catch my drift.

[Threadkiller]

http://farm1.static.flickr.com/103/290148191_cb94e80ee3.jpg ">

The ass that is getting kicked.

[Frau Ufo]

Another Firefly fan reporting in. Don't belittle the film Serenity. Take it as a grace note from author/director Joss Whedon who wanted to finish the story for fans.

IMHO trolls should respond, if they must, to TM's excellent posts. We are merely a Greek chorus of "snorts," a collective Statler and Waldorf.

[Ann]

Mel and Dot:

LOL and thanks. From two guys I admire, I'm starting to think the orignial is preferred.

Besides the lefty heads will explode faster, always a bonus!

[narciso]

Whedon is sometimes just too cruel in the way he dispatches characters in almost every show he has been involved with

[Forcedwayintohousedata]

What Canada. All they know is they said no new global taxes and O and his powers are saying they're getting paid. It's like they live in N.O. and BP is cash forever. Let's stare at and hear shit that ain't there until O gets to be President again.

[Danube of Thought]

Go get 'em, Ann!

Let us all pause for a moment to savor--and I mean really savor--the disgrace surrounding the departure of the reliably vile leftist ignoramus Helen Thomas. God willing, she will feel deep shame and humiliation till she draws her very last breath.

[Frau Ufo]

DoT - Every day now turns out to be a new day for exclaiming, "Heckuva job, Barry."

Off to the CA polls tomorrow with a song in my heart.

[Ann]

What do you know?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/barackobama/5096803/Barack-Obama-rejects-Normandy-trip-to-avoid-offending-Germany.html ">Barack Obama rejects Normandy trip to avoid offending Germany

Now, I am thinking of a collage of "I'll kiss anyone's ass"! (Heck, we have enough pictures of Obama bowing to make that one)

Hit, we need a meeting!

h/t Mark Levin Show

[narciso]

Merkel, is pretty darn ticked at him, forcing her to sign on to the Euro crisis, sending Gitmo detainees back to Hamburg, I don't see
how that would make a difference one way or another

[matt]

It has been a tradition since at least Reagan to visit the Normandy beachhead, but if Obama has not yet done so, he still has a chance. The question is whether there will be any of the original vets left.

Obama did honor the liberators of Buchenwald, of course in self interest.The last of the greatest generation are leaving us for better pastures, so it would be nice if our president recognized them and the young boys who are dying every day in Afghanistan and Iraq.I guess he has to "get his hate on" with Spike and the rest of the losers.

[Ann]

Just to reinforce ======kim's posts, check this link out:

http://climateaudit.org/2010/06/02/epa-and-the-national-contingency-plan/ ">EPA and the “National Contingency Plan

When will the media and Congress question the EPA? Where the hell is the EPA? Who is kicking their ass?

Look under the bus at your own deadly discretion.