Down But Not Out

The Times reports on the resilience of Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia:

Insurgent Group in Iraq, Declared Tamed, Roars
By TIMOTHY WILLIAMS

BAQUBA, Iraq — This spring, United States military commanders said that Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia was a group in disarray, all but finished as a formidable enemy after American and Iraqi troops had killed or captured more than three-quarters of its leaders.

But even as officials in the United States and Iraq made public pronouncements that reveled in Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia’s demise, the Sunni insurgent group vowed “dark days colored in blood.”

This summer, as if to make good on its pledge, Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia embarked on a wave of terror that managed to shake even an Iraqi public inured to violence: during the past two months, Iraq has witnessed some of its highest casualty tolls in more than two years, according to the government.

How Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia has managed this unlikely turnaround — from a near spent force to a reinvigorated threat to Iraq’s democracy in a little more than two months — is a puzzle to both the Americans and Iraqis who study the insurgent group, some of whom now wonder whether the organization in Iraq can ever be entirely defeated.

Troubling - the resurgence of the Taliban was also something of a longer-term surprise.  Although Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia never governed the country, like the Taliban it is mostly home grown at this point:

The group, thought to be made up almost entirely Iraqis because the stream of foreign jihadists into the country has been cut to a trickle in recent years, is overseen by its third generation of leaders, who by all accounts are as ruthless as their predecessors, and possibly more cunning and capable.

Obviously, the plan is that Iraqi security forces will be able to deal with this level of insurgency.  That still seems likely.

STEADY ON, LADS:  Excitable Andy,or whoever is writing at the Daily Dish, decries the failed Petraeus surge. Hmm.  Petraeus' role in the surge was to stave off a civil war and buy time for the Iraqi "leadership" to stand up a government and some security forces.  As Thomas Ricks (and no doubt others) noted, Petraeus implemented some awkward trade-offs.  For example, empowering local Sunni chieftans was helpful in the short run against Ao Qaeda in Mesopotami but not helpful with the longer run goal of empowering a strong central government.

Years later, the Iraqi elites have yet to form a government, and they may yet fritter away the opportuity the surge created.  But it is far to early to declare the surge a failure, and not appropriate to blame Petraeus (I think it is Petraeus' boss who is keen to get US troops out of Iraq post-haste).

And since the current level of violence looks nothing like a civil war, let's reprise Michael Yon's declaration of victory from July 2008:

The war continues to abate in Iraq. Violence is still present, but, of course, Iraq was a relatively violent place long before Coalition forces moved in. I would go so far as to say that barring any major and unexpected developments (like an Israeli air strike on Iran and the retaliations that would follow), a fair-minded person could say with reasonable certainty that the war has ended. A new and better nation is growing legs. What's left is messy politics that likely will be punctuated by low-level violence and the occasional spectacular attack. Yet, the will of the Iraqi people has changed, and the Iraqi military has dramatically improved, so those spectacular attacks are diminishing along with the regular violence. Now it's time to rebuild the country, and create a pluralistic, stable and peaceful Iraq. That will be long, hard work. But by my estimation, the Iraq War is over. We won. Which means the Iraqi people won.

It took a long time to subdue the IRA in Northern Ireland, but there was never a danger of their overthrowing either the British or Irish government. 

Comments

[Jack is Back!]

I thought Al-Queda was dead and combat operations have ceased and that Afghanistan is the priority. Hmmm, maybe the answer to this is to send Uncle Joe over to get to the bottom of this insurgency thingy.

[PD]

Tammy Baldwin assured me via her email newsletter that after her recent trip to Afghanistan, she was convinced that al Qaeda was no longer there.

Problem solved in the war of choice.

[Ignatz]

--That still seems likely.--

With Iraq unable to form a government, the increasing Sunni/Shia friction, Iran as a neighbor and the feckless Barry at our helm I wish I were so sanguine.

[steve]

-That still seems likely.

It depends on how they go about it. Didn't Hussein have little to no domestic terrorism?

[MarkO]

I now have the same aversion to this war that I developed about Viet Nam once it became clear to me that it was all costume and no victory. Bring everyone home. I don't want a single boy killed while Obama tries to placate the "entire Democrat party," by pretending to fight.

Bring them home; wait for the next disaster and have someone with courage fight the fight. Let this little liar go down in history properly.

[Jane (sit on the couch or save your country)]

I tend to agree with you Mark. Altho I would never have guessed I would end up feeling that way.

[sbw]

Is there a journalistic precept hidden in here somewhere?

The NYT has to present the case there is more in Iraq than that which meets the eye because, if there weren't, you wouldn't need to read the NYT.

[Sue]

If I knew how to search JOM archives, I'd show you my post after the election of The Won saying bring them home.

[BB Key]

OT
The Raleigh News & Observer has the first "Who are you" ad against Bob Etheridge at their Under the Dome column... sorry I do not know how to do the LUN. Ad may also be on YouTube

[centralcal]

Ditto what Jane said.

[anduril]

Obviously, the plan is that Iraqi security forces will be able to deal with this level of insurgency. That still seems likely.

"Americans and Iraqis who study the insurgent group ... now wonder whether the organization in Iraq can ever be entirely defeated." But you know better, based on--what? The conciliatory moves the Shiites have made toward the Sunnis who provide the al Qaeda manpower, such as stripping the Anbar Awakening guys of their ranks (h/t myself)? Those are hardened and experienced killers, although for a time they were our bought and paid for killers. Now that they've been armed and trained by us they should be that much more effective, but on the other side again. Thanks again, Bushie. Mission freakin' accomplished. Go visit some more troops. It's the least you can do.

[daddy the "Extremist"]

Here's BB's ad in the Raleigh News and Observer:
">http://projects.newsobserver.com/under_the_dome/the_who_are_you_ad_finally_arrives"> The "Who Are You?" Ad finally Arrives.

Full disclosure---I used to deliver this rag of a paper in High School:( Sorry.

[Rob Crawford]

It depends on how they go about it. Didn't Hussein have little to no domestic terrorism?

Well, if you exclude terror inflicted by the "government".

[MarkO]

I tend to think my reason for wanting them home is different from the Won's reasons. First off, he's letting them be killed as a mere political position. Second, I still believe if we are unwilling to use overwhelming force, we don't mean it and there is no point in my son or your son dying as a political gesture.

I'm for killing the bastards, not what we are up to now.

[glasater]

From daddy's link:

The group does not have to report where it gets its money. In 2008, lawyers for the Federal Election Commission tried to require the organization, a non profit, to disclose its donors, but the move was blocked by the Republicans on the commission.

Heh! I'd like some more of that please.

[Porchlight]

If I knew how to search JOM archives, I'd show you my post after the election of The Won saying bring them home.

Sue,

I looked and I can't find it. But I remember that post.

[daddy the "Extremist"]

OT,

College rallys by Zero and bite-me.

Rush is delayed an hour out here, but he just took a call of some guy saying Biden's speech is to an almost empty theater and they can't give away the tickets.

Then ">http://althouse.blogspot.com/2010/09/right-now-nietzsche-is-little-more.html"> Ann Althouse, who went all gaga over Feingold over the weekend, does a post on Obama's Madison Campus Lecture with links saying that " ...there are some students who are asking teachers to cancel class so they can attend...."Right now Nietschze is a little more important," said Justin Marita, a senior from River Falls, who said he plans to vote in November but won't go to the rally."

Ann avoided saying anything about Feingold today so nobody's bashing her over the head about "feelings".

[Sue]

Porch,

I can never find anything. Well, never is not quite right, I have accidentally found a thing or two.

[Captain Hate]

Didn't Hussein have little to no domestic terrorism?

Mass graves FTL

[daddy the "Extremist"]

And concerning the Ground Zero Mosque.

I think it was on FOX earlier, tho' I can't find it right now, but they said there already is a Mosque just a few blocks away from Ground Zero and showed it on a map, so the reasoning that you have to build a new one at Ground Zero in order to service the lower Manhattan Muslim community who need a place to do their Musliming, is bogus. I'll keep trying to dig that up.

[Clarice]

From the Wash Examiner--Stern's not the only SEIU member under investigation:

UPDATE — Gateway Pundit makes a huge catch. Looks like the FBI recently also raided the home of an SEIU leader for possible connections to overseas terrorist groups:
Over the weekend the FBI announced that it was investigating Joseph Iosbaker for possible connections to overseas terror groups. Iosbaker and his wife Stephanie Weiner, both anti-war activists, are suspected of activities “concerning the material support of terrorism.”

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/fbi-reportedly-investigating-the-former-seiu-leader-andy-stern-103934568.html#ixzz10qv0xIr4>Look for the union label

[Porchlight]

Sue,

It's really difficult. Even the google technique of

[thing you're looking for site:justoneminute.typepad.com]

doesn't bring up posts that I can remember clearly.

[glasater]

So how does this contradiction come about:

Election Panel Dismisses Complaint Against SEIU, Clears Way for Union to Amass War Chest

[daddy the "Extremist"]

glasater,

I do not know, but I still think the real fireworks are going to be in the Presidential Pardons on the day when Obama finally walks out of the White House for the last time.

[BB Key]

OT
Thanks daddy

I delivered it too in the 60's

[Jane (sit on the couch or save your country)]

I agree Ex - starting with Rezko and all the way down to Eric holder who I expect will be servint time within 2 years.

[Sue]

Wow. http://lollarforcongress.com/index.php/home>Lollar for congress? Ace pointed him out over at his site and I followed some links to get to his. Wouldn't it be awesome if he beat Hoyer? Maybe a money bomb is in order? How sweet would it be to take out Reid and Hoyer, since we can't get to Pelosi?

[glasater]

This is unbelievable:

Gaffney:Hamas Operative Gets a Tour of the National Counter Terrorism Center

[glasater]

Forbes has a pretty coherent article on:

FBI investigates prominent labor leader Andy Stern

[glasater]

Mexico Asks U.S. To Stop Deporting Serious Criminals

To support the request, the mayor (Jose Reyes Ferriz) of Mexico’s most violent city, Ciudad Juarez, pointed out that of 80,000 people deported to his community in the past three years nearly 30,000 had committed serious crimes in the U.S. Around 7,000 had served sentences for rape and 2,000 for murder. The criminal deportees have contributed to the escalating drug-cartel violence in his city, Mayor Ferriz said, so he wants the U.S. to make other arrangements when prison sentences are completed.

[Pagar]

Another Believable Book.

"President Bill Clinton’s Senior Military Aide Robert “Buzz” Patterson tells Newsmax that a fundraiser and “close acquaintance” of Barack Obama should be prosecuted for treason for aiding America’s enemies.

IMO, he says a lot more than most.

[bgates]

daddy, there's this place, but it's got to be twice as far from Ground Zero as where the victory mosque is supposed to go.

Literally hundreds of feet further uptown.

[Pagar]

Reference Glasater's fine link at 04:48PM.

That link needs to be read with this: OIC meeting in Chicago to impose Sharia islamic law via UN.

Put the two stories together and try to figure out how America is supposed to survive.

[glasater]

Thanks Pagar!

Did you see this link from Stephanie in the comments from your article?

[PD]

http://www.cafepress.com/+no-sharia+bumper-stickers

[Pagar]

Glasater, you're ahead of me tonight.
I had missed Stephanie's link before, thanks.
Now I see you've found another outstanding link. Mayor thinks we should keep his violent criminals, so he can lower his crime rates. It is impossible to make this stuff up, no one would believe it.

[daddy the "Extremist"]

Thanks bgates,

That's probably it, but it was reported by one of those knockout FOX blonde foxes, so I didn't quite catch all the particulars.