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October 17, 2010

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Army of Davids

For conservatives this is hard to see.

But Obama has a problem w/ his base.

3 things.

1) sellout to Leiberman, Nelson, healthcare companies on the healthcare bill.
2) the surge in Afghanistan
3) Guantanimo Bay.

The left doesn't say much about this.. but it is hitting his popularity.

Expect his numbers to drop.

Army of Davids

The articles assumption of African American turnout saving the Democrats.

Here's the problem. African Americans have been hit the hardest by the economic downturn.

They may not realize fully that the healthcare bill and other economic stupidity (41% increase in the minimum wage) are hurting them on the jobs front. But they realize things are bleak.

Comanche Voter

The only guys I ever knew who could hit a two iron were old white guys. And they hit the two iron because they couldn't hit a driver. Don't think Obama or the NAACP has the "essentials" to hit the two iron. Obama's pretty good with a driver though--lots of practice.

Gmax

For one blacks are highly concentrated in a handful of districts ( see Congressional Caucus, Black ). So its impossible for this strategy to work at the House district level. Similarly, lots of states have very few blacks, and their turnout even at 2008 type levels is unlikely to swing statewide elections there. Finally, until a midterm election has a turnout that even remotely resembles a Presidential ones, I will remain highly skeptical that this strategy is going to do one damn thing towards plugging the damn dam leaks!

Gmax

But Obama has a problem w/ his base.

Yeah but his base would be bitching at Hugo Chavez for not being progressive enough, too.

matt

they had Charlie Rangel and his opponent on Fox last night.

Rangel is a pitiful old hack in the worst tradition of machine politics. His opponent, a minister and former New York Jet with what seems to be above average common sense, was treated as anathema by even white voters in the district.

The only logical conclusion that the Left is completely delusional. MoDo, Dear Leader, Pelosi, Reid and the rest of the clown show have been smoking weed much longer than they admit.

And clariice, another wonderful piece. Keep it up!

Rick Ballard

The RCP Democrat Death Pool provides a chronologically ordered Impending Doom list. A review of the seats added in the past few weeks suggests that BOzo's appeal to blacks to show up means that new firewalls must be hastily erected in "safe" Blue Hells.

Are the Dems running out of Blue Dog bodies for the barricades.

glasater

The saying is...."only God and Nicklaus can hit a two iron...."

Danube of Thought

As someone suggested earlier, the enduring mystery is the 46% approval. Could it be a Bradley effect, with respondents unwilling to tell pollsters they disapprovevof a black man?

All seem to agree that this election is a referendum on Obama, but it is hard to square the projected results with 46% approval.

Gmax

+17

That is what Gallup said two weeks running. Take most districts and plug that shift into the 2006 margin in the district and any Democrat who did not win in the last off year election 60 40 has to sweat it. That is all but maybe 100 Democrats.

The Democrats may be able to caucus in the cloakroom of House next January.

Cecil Turner

In the title event, Carl Spackler only got about 105 yards outta his. (Pretty weak, compared to the 195 yards he hit with the 8 iron.)

bgates

it is hard to square the projected results with 46% approval.

I can't think of any of his backers who will win if they can't manage to break 47%, besides maybe Lazlo McShaughnessy in Alaska.

Army of Davids

A 41% hike in the minimum wage during the recession has made it worse for teenage employment (African American males in particular). Access to the job market at a young age is vital for long term financial viability.

We are setting up a generation for failure.

Here in Los Angeles where I am we have a 40% graduation rate from the LAUSD. That just makes it worse. I don't see any future for these kids.

matt

Some Computer Fun as You wait to Vote !!!

1. Open a new file in your computer.
2. Name it Harry Reed.
3. Send it to the Recycle Bin.
4. Empty the Recycle Bin. ...
5. Your PC will ask you: 'Do you really want to get rid of " Harry Reed?'
6. Firmly Click 'Yes.'
7. Feel better? GOOD! -

Tomorrow we'll do Nancy Pelosi.

MarkO

Since Bill's brother Brian wrote the script he may have wanted to showcase Billy's short game.

Jack is Back!

As Lee Trevino once poignantly remarked: "If there is lightning nearby, hold a two-iron over your head. Even God can't hit a two-iron."

I still have my old Hogan Apex forged irons from my youth that includes a two-iron with a stiff true temper shaft. Of the hundreds of times I had a two iron shot - maybe one or two came off as expected. Thank God for hybrids:)

Pagar

"As someone suggested earlier, the enduring mystery is the 46% approval"

You need to remember that in state after state, the Democrats have went to court and argued that their voters should not have to get photo ID cards in order to vote. Their reasoning is that their voters are not smart enough to be able to get a photo ID card. Even through their voters are very likely to qualify for food stamps, and other government assistance, all of which one would think would require a photo ID to identify the recipient.

Now if your political party had identified you as too dumb to get a photo ID, would you really want to go against them and vote for another parties candidate?

Jack is Back!

Is it too early to have a Ketel One Citron and Tonic? I just read where Gibbs (not Andy) said that it would be local issues not Obama's policy that will decide the midterms. I agree.

Obama's policy is mine and my neighbor's most important local issue: the Federal Government is scaring the living hell out of all us and our local leaders have no idea where their local government revenue will come from. The housing market in Florida is down as far as value and number of foreclosures. Property tax revenues are static because legislated millage roll back rates.

Homes are selling but at 40% of their value. Boomers in the midwest and northeast who are retiring are retiring to their own homes there and not coming here. People are running to their local CVS and stocking up on their drugs plus some in case ObamaCare does have death panels. The kids in high school and college look at envy at the 80 year old guy slinging burgers at Steak and Shake who is too busy making shakes and malts to be sexting.

No, Obama is my local issue more than any President since Carter. Our misery index is simple - unemployment plus his PAI plus consumer confidence plus dollar differential to euro and yen multiplied by GDP. But that is a local issue.

mockmook

I think the stories for Nicklaus and Trevino referred to 1-irons.

Perhaps 0bama is the only one who can hit a 0-iron.

Jack is Back!

mockmook,

Not so! The Trevino quote is accurate. Never heard the Nicklaus one before. But for your information, back in the early teens of the 20th century an 0-iron was commonly a putter. Which is appropriate, since that is all Obama has done in 20 months, putter around.

bgates

Homes are selling but at 40% of their value.

How do you define "value"?

mockmook

Hey JiB,

Bing: trevino god iron

For trevino, the only results/quotes I see are for the 1-iron.

Nicklaus made several famous shots with 1-irons in majors wins.

Danube of Thought

Just looked around a bit, and it seems that when the Dems lost 54 seats in 1994, Clinton's approval was very much like Obama's, both overall and by region. So I'm sticking with my guess of 58.

PD

matt, who's "Harry Reed"? :-)

PD

Perhaps 0bama is the only one who can hit a 0-iron.

He can't even pronounce Orion when he goes to Orion Energy Systems.

Stephanie

I took the title to mean that TM was channeling his inner Spackler and that the resultant psycho-speak would rival Obama's blatherings.

Judge Smails as Joe Biden. Clueless and evil.

Moochelle as Mrs. Smails as she can't abide the hoi poloi invading her club.

Ty Webb would be Glenn Beck.

Modo as Lacey Underalls. Maybe, but it's a stretch looks wise. On the plus side, she's probably been used more than the #1 golf cart.

Sarah would have to be Czervik only cause she is a "bad capitalist" and Czervik Construction is causing all the gophers to invade the golf course. Plus she drives all the right people nuts.

The Tea Partiers are the gopher.

Which, Yea! We all know who wins that one in the end.

Funny that the two movie characters that bring to mind Obama are Carl Spackler and Chance the Gardener...

Porchlight

I was technically around in '94 and had even voted for Clinton two years earlier. But I wasn't (obviously) paying any intelligent attention to politics.

So I don't know, but my guess is that there wasn't this intensity in 1994, not this kind of widespread anger. Seems like the intensity differential plus the Gallup generic ballot readings means it's going to be bigger. I think a lot bigger - at least in the House. I'm still going with 80 seats. Hey, why not.

PD

Funny that the two movie characters that bring to mind Obama are Carl Spackler and Chance the Gardener...

I'm wagering that the creative folks here will soon add to the list.

DerHahn

I think Gmax has it right. If the Democrats feel it necessary to rally black voters to the pools, likely the only Dem left on Capitol Hill the morning of 11/3 will be named 'Noah'. IIRC one of the 'if onlys' that would have lead to President Algore (that aint raight, lord forgive me amen) was him not underperforming the usual Black support of a Democrat by less than five percent.

And Gibbs is definitely Spaulding Smails.

Rick Ballard

Porchlight,

1930 would be a closer parallel, IMO. Even at that, the election in '30 came only 13 months after the crash. We're now at 25 months from our crash, so I anticipate more seats changing than in '30 and, perhaps, somewhat fewer than in '32.

BOzo's bleat to the blacks does not rise to the level of a hail Mary - it's much more pathetic than that. The RCP Democrat Death Pool which I cited above shows a momentum shift but it's against the Dems. Pollsters now have two weeks in which to adopt the Gallup LV model - or lose credibility in the future.

Rick Ballard

Porchlight,

1930 would be a closer parallel, IMO. Even at that, the election in '30 came only 13 months after the crash. We're now at 25 months from our crash, so I anticipate more seats changing than in '30 and, perhaps, somewhat fewer than in '32.

BOzo's bleat to the blacks does not rise to the level of a hail Mary - it's much more pathetic than that. The RCP Democrat Death Pool which I cited above shows a momentum shift but it's against the Dems. Pollsters now have two weeks in which to adopt the Gallup LV model - or lose credibility in the future.

Threadkiller

Rick, you can say that again!

Porchlight

it's much more pathetic than that

Rick,

That's about right. The response is completely half-hearted. There is no time left. It's all for show at this point. Did you watch Palin's speech last night? "Soon we'll all be dancing."

Melinda Romanoff

JiB-

I would submit, and Stephanie, I think, will attest, that the "0" iron is also known as the "tree" iron. Only for the daring, that low screamer to "get out".

Danube of Thought

I know what you mean, Porchlight. I remember very well the anticipation I was feeling in 94, but I don't recall anything close to this widespread sense of simmering outrage. It's going to be fascinating for sure.

Army of Davids

Will the healthcare companies who owned a seat at the table push back against the effort to repeal ObamaCare?

Why is United HealthCare in partnership w/ AARP?

Things that make you go hmmmm.

Sue

OMG, the CiC is resorting to Star Wars analogies. He's got him some campaigning to do. If you haven't listened to him from the link via Drudge, you need to. I think he is really losing it.

Army of Davids

GMax,

It's still Obama's problem.

Watch Howard Dean attack him from the left. Obama is screwed.

The only question is can the damage he did be undone. That is the hard part.

Repealing ObamaCare in it's entirety has to be THE priority.

Ezra Klein is floating Mark McClellan as a new Obama appointee (political cover). McClellan needs to stay far, far away.

Stephanie

Had one of those today, Mel. The up against a tree dammit! shot - not the 0 iron in my bag.

I believe only John Daly ever used a 0 iron on tour. Nickolas did use a 1 iron, but I believe that today no one keeps any lower than a 2 in their bag. Most irons below 4 or 5 have a hybrid counterpart now that is more, ummm forgiving shall we say.

I used a handy 60 deg wedge and managed to put it in the hole for a 5. The drive came to a rest two inches from the trunk, but the hole was 90 degrees from there, so I didn't have to use a trick shot.

FYI

A Diego Maradonna - Nasty little five footer.

A Paula Radcliffe - Ugly, but a good runner.

Making love to your sister - It's down there but you're not proud of it.

An Adolf Hitler - Taking two shots in a bunker

A Kate Winslett - A bit fat but otherwise perfect

A Rodney King - Over-clubbed

An O.J. Simpson - Somehow got away with it

A Sister-in-law - Up there but I know that I shouldn't be

A Kate Moss - A bit thin

Putting like a gynaecologists assistant - Shaving the hole.

A nipple licker - A shot that opens up the hole.

A Salman Rushdie - An impossible read

A Rock Hudson - Thought it was straight, but it wasn't

A Ladyboy - Looks like an easy hole but all may not be what it
seems

OJ Simpson - sliced it, but got away with it

Nancy Kerrigan - shot that is knee high and if it hit someone would take em out

Monica Lewinsky - All lip no hole

Rosie O'donnell - Fat and ugly

Calista Flockhart - Thin but still looks good

A Palestine - a swing that every teaching pro has had a look at but none can fix.

The knocked up shot - the fun you had hitting the ball was definitely not worth the trouble it got you into.

The Air India Jumbo - you can tell it's going to stink even before it hits the ground.

The Miss Piggy - fat, but hugs the green.

The Mrs Robinson - you should not be taking it on but it just looks so damn tempting.

The Saddam Hussein - From bunker to bunker

Stephanie

And more!

A *Paris Hilton* - an expensive hole
A *Salman Rushdie* - an impossible read
A *Cuban* - needed one more revolution
An *Elton John *- a big bender that lips the rim
A *Yasser Arafat* - ugly and in the sand
A *Glen Miller* - didn't make it over the water
A * Princess Grace* - should have taken a driver
A *Princess Di* - shouldn't have taken a driver
An *Anna Kournikova* - looks great, but unlikely to get a result
A * Brazilian* - Shaves both sides of the hole
A Sonny Bono - hit one into the trees and it lands harrrd
A Natalie Wood - She's in the water and gone for good
A Bob Barker - A golf shot that is hit too high, so that you ask it to 'come on down!'

Melinda Romanoff

Excellent selection, Stephanie!

The tree iron works as a comparison to the three bank shot in eight ball.

Sometimes, you just have to do it.

Stephanie

I yanked errrr... banked one off the cart house once and it missed the hole by inches.

Have never been able to duplicate it again, but one of the girls managed to shoot one through the cart house and into the pool last summer. 50 carts in the house and it missed em all. Amazing...

Melinda Romanoff

Mine was off the oak tree over the caddy's "wait table", to the concrete bandshell, to a 90 yard lie from the first tee.

I used to be a bit rough off the tee.

Now it's eight-putting.

But I never keep anybody waiting, especially with furniture delivery, which is side work.

And I'm going to fade.

G'night all.

RichatUF

AoD-

In re: your 10:12. Not really, AARP is partnering with UHC to provide the only available Medicare Advantage policies. More of that great "Public-Private Partnership".

others: I don't recall ever seeing this level of anger. 1994 happened for a lot of reasons, not the least of which the Dems were soft from gerrymandering and incumbency. I'd also have a tendency to toss the 1930 results as to strange because of the number of Rep congressman and congressman-elect that died and the Dems picked up the seats in special elections. Rick's point that this race is so hard to poll they had to use 2 turn out models points to it being a carpet bombing 80+ house, 9-11 Senate pick up. (My bold prediction is 102 house seats and 10 Senate seats but seems crazy talk.)

Ignatz Ratzkywatzky

Stephanie those were hilarious.

Moderate Cassandra

My prediction:
(1) The "Rally To Restore Sanity"/"March To Keep Fear Alive" will draw more people than Glenn Beck's rally, which will have a slight energizing effect on the progressive base. Normally, this would fade quickly, but the rally is 3 days before the election.
(2) Between (1), union GOTV efforts and the GOP's own disorganized ground game, more progressive voters and fewer tea party/conservative voters will turn out than expected.
(3) The Dems keep both the House (narrowly) and the Senate (GOP picks up 5 seats). This takes the wind out of the Tea Party movement and - once the voter's anger is spent - it ceases to be a force in American politics.
(4) Obama takes the failed wave as an endorsement of his presidency by the public and moves further left. The Dems attempt to pass cap-and-trade, card check and a public option during the recess, but can only get the votes together in the Senate for the first one.
(5) Obama spends the next two years on the attack against the GOP while trying to push a leftward agenda through congress, even though he doesn't have the votes.
(6) The 2012 elections are anyone's guess. The economy will have improved. Neither cap-and-trade nor the significant parts of health care reform will take effect until 2013 or later, so any drag from them will be minimal. However, Obama's constant attacks on the GOP will grate on his nerves, and the Democrats will be engaged in an internal battle between their left and moderate wings over the direction the party should take in the wake of the 2010 election. A lot will depend upon whether the GOP can overcome the disillusionment of its supporters from the failed wave of 2010, get its ground game together, modernize its campaign apparatus and find a real leader able to articulate a clear and compelling vision to the voters and energize its base.

Frau Gerücht

Much needed mirth, Stephanie. When will you bring more? It's going to be a grim wait from now till V-Day. I wonder what carp will fly each day.

Do you think the Ted Stevens video will help ole Leesa Meerkowski? I hate poor losers.

jorgxmckie

DoT,the "Bradley Effect" in Michigan. In a statewide race in which race is a factor, with the exception of Obama's election, it's usually right to subtract at least 10%, even 15% from the side favoring the "Black alternative." Happens just about every time. I'd be surprised if Obama's actual rating [if it could be known] is as high in MI as 35%.

I was teaching "Campaigns and Elections" to upper level undergraduates at a midlevel state uni in 94, and I was the outlier who was predicting a 35+ seat GOP pickup. Sheesh.

Unless there is a real rally on the Left [and I don't see what could happen now -- I think the cake is already baked and probably can only get worse for Dems], I see a 60+ pickup [not allowing for outright theft].

The difference in enthusiasm is just incredible. My current students are a microcosm of the "youth voter" and I'd be really surprised if the "Obama youth vote" turns out at 25%. The enthusiastic ones are the Young Republicans.

Frau Gerücht

jorgxmckie - I like your projections.

Frau Kotz-mich-an

“We have enough wealth to continue to have a great university and get every kid into this school that can qualify. Now when I say every young man and young woman, I mean everyone – whether they are documented or not. If they went to school, they ought to be here."

Is Jerry Brown a whore?

daddy

Frau,

International Beer Corespondent checking in.

Yesterday deadheaded as a passenger on Japan Air Lines, and got to use the First Class Lounge while waiting to board. They had an auto beer pouring machine in the lounge which is always fun, but sorry I can't link to the video---YouTube is forbidden in Guangzhou China lately.

Anyhow, you get a frosty tall beer glass from the fridge, place it on a stand and punch "Go". The platform upon which you've placed the glass then tilts out from the bottom at an angle towards you, and a stream of Kirin Lager starts coming into the glass from a spout above, making a nice golden pour. At about 4/5ths full the platform reverts from its tilt back to the vertical, the pour now develops a half inch foamy head, exactly to the brim, and then, this magical procedure concluded, you take your glass and pound it down quickly, so that you can hurry up and watch this amazing process all over again. And again. And again.

The machine was way better than the brew, but the price was right.

daddy

As the Tundra turns...

Am far from home but was surprised a few minutes back when clicking on the ADN.

Joe Miller's Security Guards at the conclusion of a campaign event just ">http://www.adn.com/2010/10/17/1506223/miller-security-guards-handcuff.html"> handcuffed the Editor of the Left leaning blog, The Alaska Dispatch.

That Blog has 4 reporters and is owned and paid for by a big anti-Miller person. This handcuffed Editor is the guy who was on Fagan's show last week trying to say he was unbiased, and the reason why there were 20 times more anti-Joe stories on his blog than anti-Lisa or anti-McAdam's story's wasn't because he was biased, but because Joe hadn't answered questions and was a hypocrite. Host did a pretty good job hammering him, and I called in and got to challenge him on how come he wasn't doing a story of Lisa's hypocrisy, about having voted for a State Income Tax when in the Legislature (it got defeated) and now doing attack ads on Joe saying if you vote for him we'll lose pork and have to institute a State Income Tax? There's not a bigger example of political hypocrisy in the State than that. Anyhow the weasel hemmed and hawed and said that he'd look into it, but didn't, and now looks like he's hassling Joe MIller.

Don't know how this'll turn out, but expect this'll be a story for the next 3 weeks.

FWIW, Lisa has decided to run Campaign Ads of dead senator Steven's endorsing her, (shot before she lost the Republican Primary.) And Fagan says The Native Corps have had to pull a particularly vile anti-Joe ad. He writes about that ">http://www.thealaskastandard.com/content/how-low-can-they-go"> here, but I must admit I can't get the link to open here (forbidden in China) so I'm linking it unlooked at.

bgates

Lisa has decided to run Campaign Ads of dead senator Steven's endorsing her

Has anybody asked the Republican caucus how Leslie compares to her father, Frank MacLoskie? I'd like to know if their famed collegiality extends to guys who are out of power, or if they'd actually be willing to say that Lauren is a big improvement over her patron, who left public office with a 19% approval rating.

glasater

I tried to correct the comment "only God and Nicklaus can hit a two iron" some time ago but couldn't get the comment to show.
It should have read "...only God and Nicklaus can hit a one iron..."
But I think mockmook's comment about Trevino-a one iron-and lightning is the accurate one. It was one of his jokes...

"After he was struck by lightning at the 1975 Western Open, Trevino was asked by a reporter what he would do if he were out on the course and it began to storm again. Trevino answered he would take out his 1 iron and point it to the sky, "because not even God can hit the 1 iron."

Pops

What you'll never hear on the news media:

Obama is the guy we all know in our daily lives. He is the affirmative action hire, who wasn't up to the job he was given, and then lashes out as others as being the fault for his poor performance.

Captain Hate

Great golf comments Stephanie; I LOLed. A lot.

Cecil Turner

This takes the wind out of the Tea Party movement and - once the voter's anger is spent - it ceases to be a force in American politics.

I love the lefty re-dreaming on this one. My prediction: as long as the Dems run trillion-dollar deficits, fiscal conservatism (or lack thereof) will continue to be an issue.

Jack is Back!

Mak'ala,ka JOMOs:

Today at tribal sub-station Florida we begin early voting - goes on for the next two weeks until Nov. 2nd. I see lots of head-dresses already and most are wearing red feathers. Remember it was patriots disguised as Indians that raided the ships and threw the tea overboard. Lots of symbolism in Obama's remark about there being a lot of "tribalism" out there.

And as noted on the other thread, the biggest local issue we have is Obama and his policies and his retinue of czars leading us down the road to destruction. Too bad there are not some enterprising pollsters down at the Dept. of Elections polling the early voters just to get a sense of where all the tribal anger is today. I am going after seeing my dentist and will report back the size of the lines. Last election in 2008 I voted early and there was only 3 people voting at 12 booths. Lets see if that number escalates today.

rse

JIB-

Cannot wait to hear. Will provide panhandle reports when I hear.

I am hearing though that the attacks on Scott have had an effect. Do you think he or Sink will prevail?

narciso

It's a whole lot more active around here, in this heavily Democratic enclave, but I'll be checking what the turnout looks like

JB

"The Dems keep both the House (narrowly) and the Senate (GOP picks up 5 seats)"

Now that's some powerful hopium.

What I love about the left is their seemingly limitless capacity for self-delusion.

Jim Ryan

VA-5 News: There may be a double-digit lead for Robert Hurt, the current state senator from the Danville area who is challenging the first-term Dem cong here. SurveyUSA polls are showing 11 points and 17 points (two polls, two methodologies) lead for Hurt, and the argument is being made around there that this outfit was correct about the district in 2008. Until now, we've had no clue where the race stood or thought it was Hurt by two points. We're working hard and no one's getting cocky. We are increasing our efforts in the last two weeks. I volunteer every lunch hour.

Thank you to anyone who has helped Robert Hurt for Congress. I met him again yesterday and he is a gentleman. Some local pols who can be trusted vouched for his character yesterday in a rally.

If you are in a district with a close race in which there is a conservative candidate, how about volunteering your lunch hours at the local HQ?

anduril

Is it time yet for another round of high fiving the great Surge "victory" in Iraq? The NYT yesterday gives more reasons for all the high fiving: Sunnis in Iraq Allied With U.S. Rejoin Rebels:

BAQUBA, Iraq — Members of United States-allied Awakening Councils have quit or been dismissed from their positions in significant numbers in recent months, prey to an intensive recruitment campaign by the Sunni insurgency, according to government officials, current and former members of the Awakening and insurgents.

Although there are no firm figures, security and political officials say hundreds of the well-disciplined fighters — many of whom have gained extensive knowledge about the American military — appear to have rejoined Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia. Beyond that, officials say that even many of the Awakening fighters still on the Iraqi government payroll, possibly thousands of them, covertly aid the insurgency.

The defections have been driven in part by frustration with the Shiite-led government, which Awakening members say is intent on destroying them, as well as by pressure from Al Qaeda. The exodus has accelerated since Iraq’s inconclusive parliamentary elections in March, which have left Sunnis uncertain of retaining what little political influence they have and which appear to have provided Al Qaeda new opportunities to lure back fighters.

The Awakening members’ switch in loyalties poses a new threat to Iraq’s tenuous social and political balance during the country’s ongoing political crisis and as the United States military prepares to withdraw next year.

And now internet gadfly Spengler/David Goldman is taking aim at the entire Neocon strategy. Heh. Just kidding, but he does level some devastating criticisms while sneaking in the Neocon agenda all over again via a backdoor approach. I've edited out the worst of Spengler/Goldman's usual self serving boilerplate:

Sectarian war is playing out in the predictable way, and America will have nothing to show for a trillion dollars' worth of "nation-building" and several thousand dead soldiers except a civil war much bloodier than might have occurred without America's provision of money and guns to the Sunni Awakening. ...

The "surge" turns out to be the facade of a Potemkin - or perhaps we should say Petraeus - village, a facade like the old Hollywood Western sets, behind which prospective combatants oil their weapons and refill their magazines.

The Republican establishment hailed the "surge" as proof that the George W Bush administration's nation-building exercise had succeeded, and Petraeus has been invited to address every conservative association from the American Enterprise Institute to Commentary magazine.

Last week, I heard a prominent conservative commentator brag to a conservative gathering (off the record) that the surge reduced American war deaths in Iraq in July 2008 to only one, while the military's monthly average rate of accidental death was three. What about Iran?, the conservative sage was asked. The American public simply isn't ready for the consequences of bombing Iran, he explained: if we were to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, the result would be a terrible outbreak of terrorism, along with a spike in oil prices.

...

All of this is blowing up in America's face, along with the twin farce in Afghanistan. The same talking heads who cheer-led the Bush administration claim that the problem is that Obama has encouraged the enemy by signaling his desire to withdraw. They know perfectly well that American voters cannot make sense of why so much blood and treasure has been poured into countries about which they care little.

Organizations exist in order to protect their members from the consequences of error, and that is as true of the organs of the conservative movement as any other. Collectively and individually, the Republicans cannot easily admit that the whole business of nation-building was a gigantic blunder, not after a trillion dollars and four thousand dead.

The right-wing social engineers who planted the idea into the impressionable mind of Bush have their reputations to defend, and they will circle the wagons and fight to the death. Academics, journalists and think-tankers live hand to mouth, and have nothing to justify their next paycheck except for their street cred. No matter what the outcome, and no matter how deep the accumulation of facts, they will not admit error. If only Obama had continued the Bush policy, they insist, we would have triumphed in Iraq.

...

American voters are in a mood to blame Obama, and rightly so; his economic policy has failed miserably and he has no cards left to play. Republicans will blame him for strategic disaster as well, and Obama surely deserves his share of the blame. After the mid-term elections, though, and the likely loss of a Democratic majority in both Houses of Congress, Obama will demand of the Republicans: "What would you do?" The Republican answer cannot be to send American combat troops back to Iraq. They will try to blame Obama for the failure of a war that he inherited, and it will not wash with the voters.

Captain Hate

OMG, the CiC is resorting to Star Wars analogies. He's got him some campaigning to do. If you haven't listened to him from the link via Drudge, you need to. I think he is really losing it.

He also used the car analogy at OSU in front of students, one of the only groups that hasn't received the full brunt of his policies. Even with them the response seemed dispirited. In the Cleveland area he conducted a fund-raiser for Twitch Strickland's sinking ship at the tony suburb of Hunting Valley in front of some well-heeled ambulance chasers and trust-funders. I'm sure the DNC has pretty much given up on Ahia and figured Jugears McFly couldn't do any damage.

Danube of Thought

Unexpected:

"Production in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped in September for the first time in more than a year, showing the industry that led the economy out of the recession is cooling. Output at factories, mines and utilities fell 0.2 percent, the first decline since the recession ended in June 2009, figures from the Federal Reserve showed today."

(Bloomberg)

Appalled

Cassndra:

You are sure braver than I am, making predictions like that. Some thoughts, because it is an interesting text for discussion:

The "Rally To Restore Sanity"/"March To Keep Fear Alive" will draw more people than Glenn Beck's rally, which will have a slight energizing effect on the progressive base.

Does a big rally in Washington govern how a lightly motivated progressive voter in Cleveland votes? I don't know. Usually, these things are the signs of a movement, rather than the generator of one. I suppose the publicity for this thing on Oprah good move some votes, but color me skeptical this draws more than 10,000 people to the polls nationwide. The peole who are likely to be inspired are those who were ging to vote anyway.

Between (1), union GOTV efforts and the GOP's own disorganized ground game, more progressive voters and fewer tea party/conservative voters will turn out than expected.

Have you read Jay Cost on GOTV efforts? He makes a pretty persuasive case that these have marginal effects at best. The lightly motivated voter usually can get himself to the polls -- the offer of a ride just does not matter that much. Also, with the amount of pre-election day voting that happens, I think the utility of these efforts is going to drop.

The Dems keep both the House (narrowly) and the Senate (GOP picks up 5 seats).

This looks too much like 1994 in the polling and the issues. I don't see voters coming home to the dems. Late breaking voters almost always go to the challenger.

I think most pollsters are saying the GOP gets the house. You could be right on the Senate (though I think the GOP picks up more like 7 or 8).

Ranger

What I love about the left is their seemingly limitless capacity for self-delusion.

Reality seems to be dawning on a http://www.newsweek.com/blogs/kausfiles/2010/10/17/obama-clings-again-blames-scared-voters.html>one of them:

A few weeks ago a right-wing reporter told me that worried Dem congresspersons who met with Obama left their meetings more worried than when they went in. I discounted the gossip, but now it's begining to ring true. We thought he was a great salesman. He turned out to be a lousy salesman. We thought he was a great politician. Instead he makes elementary mistakes and doesn't learn from them. He didn't know "shovel-ready" from a hole in the ground, and then somehow thinks admitting this ignorance without apology will add to his appeal.

I'd still defend most of the decisions Obama's made, especially on health care refom. I'd rather have him making those decisions than 85% of the likely Republican candidates. But for the first time, he's looking like a one-termer, even if the jobs start to come back. . . .

(via RCP)

narciso

They sent the stupidest person, Gibbs, out there, to make this argument, look in a down
economy, this is not going to work, that's why
the 1894 parallels are more apt, as well as 1930.

On the other point, this is the delayed effect
of the Obama disengagement strategy, he was the one who wanted a benchmarks, who voted against the surge, as with Afghanistan, his
heart is not in the fight.

Prick your ears up, Big C.  We shall see and hear.

Well, either Cassandra is whistling past the graveyard or those are the laments of dead soldiers we hear.
===================

Ranger

The Dems keep both the House (narrowly) and the Senate (GOP picks up 5 seats).

Well, without a super-huge October surprise, the House is gone. This morning the RCP average gives the Rs 212 solid seats, with 42 toss-ups. Given the magic number is 218 for control, the Rs only need to pick up 6 of those 42 (that's just 1 in 7) to hit the magic number. Oh, and those are just the election results. Wait until the dust settles, and those Blue Dogs who voted against Obamacare but still nealry lost come running to the GOP to switch parties rather than face another brutal election cycle as a Dem in 2012.

Heh, the quietist over there learned Democracy from Jefferson and de Tocqueville because the Koran only speaks of 'justice'.

And a purple finger from a dead voter to Anduril.
================

jwest

Here’s part of a discussion I’ve been having with Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight that touches on the percentage of black voters who show up on election day. It could make for some very interesting scenarios……

Nate,

I believe you’ve done a good job laying out the caveats associated with trying to model a tough election. During a presidential year with a reasonably decent economy, your projections will be the ones to rely on.

It might be fun to throw in one more exception to the rule for our group of poll-obsessed readers. In years such as this, there always seems to be one race that hits people out of the blue. Some contest that wasn’t on anyone’s radar but when looked at in hindsight, had some indicators that a major swing was possible.

As we know, a candidate doesn’t need a majority of the state to win, only a majority of who shows up to vote. In looking at races where a disproportionate demographic imbalance is possible, the Maryland Senate contest comes up. Why is this a possibility? First, Maryland has a higher than average minority population (35%). Maryland minorities voted stronger in the ’06 midterm than the state’s general population, but according to recent polls are less interested in this year’s election. This block of votes has no distribution curve to analyze, as it votes en mass purely democratic. If the minority voters don’t show up in the numbers modeled by the ’06 and ’08 elections, a large portion of the democrat vote will go missing.

Next, the Maryland youth (18-29) vote historically seems to only show up in appreciable numbers during democrat wave years. If uninspired this cycle, they may stay home like in ’02, as opposed to flocking to polls as they did in ’06. Taken together, the minority and youth vote make up a large segment of the 42% of voting age population that normally participates in a midterm election.

Finally, when looking at crosstabs in the state, voter attitude on issues doesn’t seem to track within acceptable ranges to the disparity in candidate preferences. This coupled with the fact that no one seems to know who the republican candidate is makes a strong case for a Blitz style campaign in the last two weeks. This would leave the incumbent, who previously was fat, dumb and happy while cruising to an easy win, totally defensive and unprepared to counter.

Watch for saturation ads on selected cable shows, local news, and shows popular with the over 40 crowd, along with heavy radio buys and coordinated direct mail. I would expect a poll to be released early in the week showing a 12-15 point gain by Wargotz to generate buzz, followed quickly by an influx of issue ads funded by (but definitely not in coordination with) outside interest groups.

Or not. Who knows what we wascally wepublicans will do?

Clarice

Barone confirms, a vote for Obamacare was a career ender.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/Dems-find-careers-threatened-by-Obamacare-votes-1228371-105059824.html>Read before voting, dumbbells

Jack is Back!

rse,

Haven't noticed too much traffic here toward Sink but Scott seems to have an edge here on the 1st Coast. She is so wishy-washy she reminds me of Crist last year. Scott has baggage but so does Alex and her hubby will wear the governor's pants anyway.

I'll let you all know what the early voting looks like around 1300hrs (for those in the People's Republic of Austin/Madison/Berkeley/Eugene that is 1:00pm).

PD

What I love about the left is their seemingly limitless capacity for self-delusion.

Just like the candidates on The Apprentice who, while turning in a disastrous performance, continue to insist that they'd done a terrific job, simply because they couldn't imagine being such a flop as they really were.

Jim Ryan

Bottom line, a lot of these Dem congressmen have BO.

Jim Ryan

Dang. Per Ranger's quote, it is well to be reminded that Kaus likes Zero and Zerocare:

I'd still defend most of the decisions Obama's made, especially on health care refom. I'd rather have him making those decisions than 85% of the likely Republican candidates.

But Kaus is "one of the sane ones." Uh huh.

Rob Crawford

The only beef Kaus has with the Democrats is the extent to which they bow to the unions. If they bowed more to his class -- over-educated, poorly-informed urban "intelligentsia" -- he'd be happy with them.

narciso

The wise Latina strikes again, although her impact is limited, in the LUN

Captain Hate

I'm not the biggest Fred Barnes fan in the world (a strictly subjective thing; he does excellent work) but in the LUN I think he gets it exactly right on the RNC and Steele somehow lurching into doing the right thing.

narciso

He was at the Anaheim rally, but he just did introductions. Steele is not the most verbally
fleetfooted, but as you noticed, Cornyn, well
we're going to have to have his status as a Tezan looked into, I'm just saying

Porchlight
SurveyUSA polls are showing 11 points and 17 points (two polls, two methodologies) lead for Hurt, and the argument is being made around there that this outfit was correct about the district in 2008.

Jim Ryan,

Just curious - I know you were skeptical earlier of the two SurveyUSA polls showing a double digit lead for Hurt. Is there something in particular that's happened to change your mind? Or is it just that their previous accuracy has reassured you?

Somewhat related, one reason I think the House gains are going to be larger than what most analysts have predicted is that there are several races where no public polling has taken place and thus even a Cost or a Barone can only make a guess at them. There are going to be some major shockers in some of these off-the-radar races.

Porchlight

I'd rather have him making those decisions than 85% of the likely Republican candidates.

Hmm. Who are in the 15%, I wonder?

Rob Crawford

Hmm. Who are in the 15%, I wonder?

Oh, you know... Moo-cow-sky, Crist, McCain, Graham...

Porchlight

Oh, you know... Moo-cow-sky, Crist, McCain, Graham...

Yeah. Ish. I used to like Kaus but I'm done with him. He and people like McArdle and Althouse. I guess I don't know how they're voting this year but would Kaus vote for Boxer after he ran against her? If so, pathetic.

Rick Ballard

Rich,

I consider Gallups high turnout model to be 'lipstick on this pig'. I've always considered Gallup to be a Dem shop on every poll but the last before election. Sean Trende has a very good piece today which refers to the NPR Battleground poll which I've cited a couple times. The same 'lipstick on this pig' applies.

Underscoring the importance of the enthusiasm gap, Republicans lead 50%-41% in the 86 Democrat seats among high interest voters – those who rate their interest as an 8-10 on a scale of 1-10. That is reinforced by the finding that low interest voters prefer the Democrat by a 32% GOP/55% Dem margin. So, the group that Democrats are doing best with don’t care.

jorgxmckie's comment re the shiny eyed, empty heads' lack of enthusiasm is precisely on target - this is an Anger & Apathy election.

The Three Stooges of the Democalypse have taken the Democrat Party to the pricipice - and beyond. The rest of their ACME Political Strategery Manual consists of paper reading [This page left intentionally blank].

jwest

As an incurable contrarian, I need to put on record that a 50 seat gain is the least likely outcome of the midterms. Just because Gallup, Rasmussen, Cook and the rest are projecting some variation of this number, they are locked into a world of averaged models that don’t reflect the reality of the situation.

There will either be a wave or not. In a wave (which I believe is the case), House gains will be 90+. If the wave doesn’t materialize, Dems will maintain control.

jimmyk

The Three Stooges of the Democalypse

Rick, I love this, but who are the three? There are so many candidates: BO, MO, Harry, Nancy, Rahm, Axelrod, Gibbs, Holder,....

Cecil Turner

If the wave doesn’t materialize, Dems will maintain control.

Of the House? Sorry, but I think that's a heckuva lot less likely than a 50-55 seat pickup. I tend to think it's going to be bigger as well, but the late-breaking electorate is hard to call, and the Dems'd need an awfully big counter-wave to keep it under 40.

Rob Crawford

but would Kaus vote for Boxer after he ran against her? If so, pathetic.

Meh. He lost the primary, he should get behind his party's candidate.

JM Hanes

anduril:

"The right-wing social engineers who planted the idea into the impressionable mind of Bush....."

LOL! So predictably transparent!

Why would someone dismiss 2 years of smart diplomacy -- which produced precisely the results that most of us predicted when Obama took office -- in order to crow over the putative failure of Bush policy? Someone who cares less about nation building strategy than subversive neocon "cabals," I suspect.

It seems like just yesterday, that it was Joe Biden doing the victory dance and high fiving the Obama administration for its historic achievements in Iraq. As usual, you're looking for your Epic Fail in all the wrong places.

Rick Ballard

jimmyk,

Although abject failure is always an unwanted bastard with a lengthy laundry list of potential 'fathers' (see Obama, Barack), I have in mind BOzo, Botoxic and Dingy as the triumvirate leading the Democrat Party beyond the precipice.

Charlie (Colorado)

(for those in the People's Republic of Austin/Madison/Berkeley/Eugene that is 1:00pm).

Breakfast time.

narciso

It's the Crassus, Pompey and Lepidus of the modern age

Porchlight

Meh. He lost the primary, he should get behind his party's candidate.

I suppose you're right. I just don't understand the faux centrist positioning, though career-wise it's certainly helped him.

daddy

"I'd still defend most of the decisions Obama's made, especially on health care reform."

I do not see how any intelligent person can look at the abomination of ObamaCare and make that statement, especially now, with the benefit of 10 months hindsight. That comment is seriously stupid.

daddy

Narciso's Sotomayor link:

"Over the lone dissent of Justice Sonia Sotomayor, the Court refused to hear a Louisiana prison inmate’s claim that prison officials violated his constitutional right against cruel punishment by punishing him for failing to take his HIV medicine — a gesture the inmate made in protest over being transferred to a different facility. Justice Sotomayor said in a four-page dissent from denial of review that the inmate, Anthony C. Pitre, has made out an Eighth Amendment claim. The Court, in denying review, did not respond to the dissent in Pitre v. Cain, et al., 09-9515."

cathyf
Neither cap-and-trade nor the significant parts of health care reform will take effect until 2013 or later
Fair enough, MC -- but the open enrollment for 2013 will be September/October 2012, and all of the eliminated plans and prices of the surviving plans for 2013 will be set and disseminated to everyone with health insurance mere weeks before the election.

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Wilson/Plame