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October 28, 2010

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Jane (sit on the couch or save your country)

From your lips TM...

Choices, choices.

Nancy, get off the beach!
===========

MarkO

OT but great:

This is what Larry Tribe told Obama about the “wise Latina:” “Bluntly put, she’s not nearly as smart as she seems to think she is.”

Of course, Obama couldn't tell because, join with me children, he's just not that smart.

Clarice

I think so. too. TM.

Charlie (Colorado)

Just to repeat, my over-under is +90 House, +11 Senate.

rse

All those excerpts over at Bench Memos are good.

Tribe also said Soto was a bully who would likely alienate Tony Kennedy vs Kagan who would charm him.

Caro linked the Hillbuzz letter about the pollsters models still counting all the outraged former Hill supporters as Dem.

I do hope those models are wrong and we are looking at a tsunami of previously unimaginable proportions.

I think that will be what it takes to get the Rep leadership to understand it's not about them and they also must change.

Rick Ballard

I wish I had not been so conservative with my 75-8 prediction six months ago. I severely underestimated the incompetence of the President and the Democrat Party leadership.

I look forward to the December battle within the Democrat Party - if the brain dead progs can just hold the reins through one more cycle we'll have an actual realignment of the electorate in '12 that will put them in their proper place (the ash can of history) for at least a couple decades.

Clarice

Please take a few minutes out of your busy day to view this video. It's of a 107 year old pianist, the oldest holocaust survivor. She is a woman of such depth and optimism that just watching her will make all the difficulties of life seem inconsequential.

Feed your soul today.
http://www.youtube.com/user/AliceTheFilm

Jane (sit on the couch or save your country)

Don't get cocky. That's teh exact same song the libs were singing two years ago.

Pofarmer

Man, I didn't get my caffeine this morning and the day has gone totally to shit.

Sue

Savor the moment folks...

43 percent say that Barack Obama has been a better president than George W. Bush, while 48 percent say Bush was a better president than Obama has been.

And Bush's book is leaking today. Nothing negative about Obama. A president that shows how to be a president. And not the party campaigner in chief.

Rick Ballard

Jane,

The progs claimed '08 as a realignment election on the basis of a 3% swing. I said this elections sets the stage for a realignment election in '12. The electorate is definitely not embracing the Republican Party but it is absolutely rejecting the prog leadership of the Democrat Party. I really do hope the progs retain control within the Democrat Party and I believe that, given the makeup of the remnant, it is probable that the same old sclerotic halfwits will be the "face of the future" as they have been since '72. It will make the '12 game of Capture the Muddle (which is just the impolite way of saying "convince the low information swing voter") that much easier to win.

Porchlight

I'm sticking with my formerly outrageous, wishcasting, leap-of-faith prediction of 80/10, but secretly I want to up it to 100/14.

I posted this on HotAir earlier just for review:

Gallup LV generic ballot for the House:

1994: 49R/44D - R lead of 4 - Rs pick up 54 seats
2006: 51D/44R - D lead of 7 - Ds pick up 31 seats
2010: 55R/40D - R lead of 15 - ???

Since the poll clearly overstates Dem support (Dems need a bigger lead to pick up fewer seats) where does that leave us?

I think it's going to be huge, and how a wave that huge wouln't also flip the Senate is beyond me.

Clarice

Isn't 44 from 49, 5?

Rick Ballard

Porchlight,

The Gallup piece will have utility for pollsters trying to explain why they "missed" on statewide races. It's also a setup for the Monday Gallup generic which has to revert to "reality" in order for Gallup to maintain credibility.

It's interesting to note that the Republicans have focused efforts in Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio as first tier with Illinois and Wisconsin targeted in second tier and Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada right behind.

I have no idea who the nominee will be in '12 but party strategists have certainly set a very nice table for her.

Dave (in MA)

It's just .">http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2010/10/28/kerry_voices_frustration_with_us_political_scene/>"know-nothingism".

Porchlight

Oops, sorry Clarice, you're right of course. Honestly I am really getting spacey this week.

Porchlight

party strategists have certainly set a very nice table for her.

Rick,

:)

I'm sure she'll enjoy serving at it.

Threadkiller

--"I think that will be what it takes to get the Rep leadership to understand it's not about them and they also must change."--

rse, I just finished re-reading "Kanban, Just In Time for Toyota". Taiichi Ohno, the Vice President of Toyota in the eighties founded kanban and Just In Time concepts. The theory is that improvements must never stop. Using the "samurai tradition that a warrior (manager) never stops perfecting his style (improving his managerial ability), and never stops polishing his sword (improving the process and the product)."


The book contains "Sayings of Ohno"

This one refers to a production line but I can't help but see the relevance to the Republican reformation:

"The line that is not stopped is either a tremendously good line, or an absolutely terrible line.

Most lines cannot be stopped because there are so many people surrounding them, obscuring the problems.

What is needed is to make sure the line can be stopped. And then continue to improve the line in such a way that it becomes a line that need not be stopped, even if one wishes to do so."


Danube of Thought

Savor this datum: two years from now 33 senate seats will be on the ballot. Twenty-three of them will be Dems (including two indies who caucus with them).

What message do you suppose those 23 will elect to receive on Tuesday? What lesson will they choose to learn?

Ranger

What message do you suppose those 23 will elect to receive on Tuesday? What lesson will they choose to learn?

Posted by: Danube of Thought | October 28, 2010 at 02:02 PM

DoT,

Nate Silver, the hard core Dem that he is, even admitted the other day that if all 100 Senate seats were up this year, Republicans would take a filibuster proof 60 seats, and would have a good shot at a veto proof 67. Do the 23 Dems up next cycle really think the anger will subside with Obama playing Obstructor in Cheif against the R House over the next two years?

NK

Ranger--

I too am curious to see how the next Senate plays out. Can McConnell form a "sane 60" (think Webb, landrieu, Nelson, Begich, etc)that brings us back from the fiscal abyss and surrender to jihadis, but stays away from social issues? We'll see, but BHO may make it easy for everyone; I have no doubt he'll retreat into the LEFT-WING bunker and rail against the right; becoming a left-wing Nixon or Capt. Queeg.

maryrose

Ranger:
Any true conservative and teaparty member will tell you that 2010 is just the beginning. If dems are smart that magic 23 up for re-election will ,pardon the pun read the tea leaves and work for the people they represent.

Sue

I don't think we will be ignored again. If we roar, they will listen. So let's roar!

Danube of Thought

I think that's really the essence of the national, mood, Sue. They very clearly heard us through all the town hall meetings, the Scott Brown melection and the unanimous public opinion polls, yet they willfully chose to ignore us. It is now time to hold them accountable in the strictest possible manner.

Jane

It is so fun to look at the arc of the tea party movement. We went from being ignored astroturfers to hoodlums and fringe to holding the reins of the country.

How fun it has been

Captain Hate

Jane, you're graciously modest about it, but you made it happen as much as anybody imo.

Clarice

Jane, another Mass lawyer says Barney will lose.
http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/a-pre-election-day-prediction-massachusetts-will-retire-barney-frank/>Bielat

lyle

In the "Only A Matter Of Time" department, the punditry is already prepping the battlefield with cautionary concern about the GOP "overplaying their hand." LUN

Gerald Seib is a wimpier T. Coddington Van Voorhees.

Rick Ballard

I'd toss in the fact that this is the first general election since the head of the Kennedy Machine began his eternal dog paddle through molten lava as a factor as well. If Fran goes I don't see how Cadillac stays.

Clarice,

Have you found what you were looking for for this week's Pieces?

Paul Zrimsek

Spottswoode: From what I.N.T.E.L.L.I.G.E.N.C.E. has gathered, it would be 1994 times 100.

Gary: 1994 times 100... Jesus, that's...

Spottswoode: Yes. One hundred ninety-nine thousand four hundred.

Clarice

Still working on it, Rick. I'd welcome any suggestions.

Porchlight

Jane, another Mass lawyer says Barney will lose.
Bielat

I got chills reading that. May Providence smile upon Massachusetts once more in 2010.

Jane

Oh I'm pretty sure Deval is gone too Rick, and maybe Marsha marsha by a write-in candidate.

I saw that Clarice - harrumph trying to take the wind out of my sails. We shall see.

CH - lots of people here and everywhere played a huge role - Caro and Janet have worked as hard or harder than me. Jump in, we are just getting started.

daddy

Guy asked a great question yesterday about some Dem harping on Joe Miller on the Radio yesterday, demanding we must expect more of our Senator's than somebody who lies.

Guy called in and asked what about the swimmer Ted and the dead body in the Lake for a day while consulting with Lawyer's. If that was acceptable behavior for being a Dem Senator, why the different standard for Joe, especially since Lisa has had documented lies at least 3 times in her ads just this past week, especially given that Joe admitted his lie?

Satisfactory answer was not forthcoming---subject was quickly changed. samo, samo.

Rick Ballard

Clarice,

Obama is very likely going to lose his putative birthplace House district in Hawaii, his former Senate seat in Illinois, his Senate Majority Leader and his House majority.

One might wonder what the efforts of a 'C' President would look like.

Clarice

Heh good point.
i'll try to get that in.

At the moment I'm inclined to start by showing the total idiocy of the media-academic- political elite
as evinced by that nonsensical NYT article by the Harvard professor who argues that Obama is just brilliant.
Your point might be a nice wrap up.

Janet the tea-vangelist!

One might wonder what the efforts of a 'C' President would look like.

Hahahah..that is too funny Rick!

PaulL

Clarice,

I sent the Alice link to my pianist brother out in Phoenix. He emailed this:

The other living survivor from Theresienstadt, Ella Weissberger, was just here at the symphony earlier this month to participate in performances of Krasa's "Brundibar", which she performed in many times in Theresienstadt. The opera includes a large piano part so I was involved. It was really fun and also quite inspiring. Ella spoke to the audience at each performance as well as joining in the finale of the opera.

At the symphony this season we're doing a special series of pieces by Jewish composers, many of whom died in the Holocaust.

Clarice

Alice is a remarkable person. If people thought they didn't want to view the u tube because it would be a litany of horror, please reconsider..it is not that at all. I is a conversation with a brilliant, remarkable person who you can learn so much from about the beauty of life.

If Ella is he cellist in the video, I believe there is a separate video of her which I've also seen.

Rick Ballard

Hmmmm..

From Meritocracy to Moronocracy

'Salient* Thoughts* Expressed by the Liberal* Elite*'

*Salient - furthermost left edge
*Thoughts - results of very intermittent firings of four synapses as interpreted by one dysfunctional receptor
*Liberal - Communist
*Elite - Individual properly credentialed for institutional life.

Clarice

OT--I had a long conversation with my 5 y.o. grand daughter today about her school. she is particularly taken by Ms Navarro who she says she LOVES. Ms Navarro heads the readers and writers' workshop. I was intrigued and asked about the writers' workshop and was informed everyone had to write about something that really happened, no "fantasy". I asked how they could do that since no one in the class can actually write yet. "We write the words the way we think they should be," she said. "We just use consonants==like you write Hebrew."

"Do you do this in English or Spanish?" I asked."Spanish," she answered. "Well, actually I should have said 'en espanol'," she added.

HEH--Tell me again that that yutz Obama is smart.

Rick Ballard

Clarice,

Mentioning the import of the wave down ticket might be worthwhile. Census must report to the President in December and the outcome is going to result in some interesting internecine warfare in the Blue Hells. Maintenance of the "black" districts as mandated by the '75 law passed by the very shrewd Democrat Congress is going to result in several states wiping out 'moderate' Dem districts due to the results of the wave.

It's a bit esoteric but it's going to prove to be one of the more important results of the election.

Sandy Daze

28 Oct 10
CONUS

NK @ 1439:


I am a Virginia voter.

Webb is dead to me.

A man is known by the company he keeps, Webb is in lockstep with the Socialist-Communist cabal in WDC, the administration.

Any single no vote from Webb would have stopped Healthcare, the Financial industry takeover, and numerous other fellow-traveler bits of legislation.

Nope, Webb is known as someone who can be counted upon to do the master's bidding, he is safely on the reservation, . . .errr plantation.

Webb has been a reliable vote on piece after piece of legislation designed to destroy our country.

He is. . .

CRAVEN. DISGUSTING. DISINGENUOUS.

He is in league with communists and socialists, he is no better. When did Webb turn red ?

When did he become a eunuch? I guess that is why the person Webb loves the most, is himself.

What a piece of stuff he is--a carp man.


Many on JoM & I took a durable oath to:

". . . solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic. . ."

When did Webb give up on the constitution?

He is a. . .

TRAITOR.


Take good care,
Sandy

Clarice

Sandy, I think Webb has more than a few cogs loose. I elt that from the moment he was so uncivil to Bush who'd merely asked after his son.

**Rick, thanks..that is another good suggestion.

Janet the tea-vangelist!

Amen Sandy. Webb will appear in a WaPo article saying he is unsure about some lib. bill...he really has hesitations. The WaPo prints his picture & stresses that Senator Webb might not vote for Obamacare, he is a real blue dog Dem!
Then he votes for it.
Over & over & over...He has not read the bills, yet he votes for every one.

The only reason anyone would think Webb was a conservative Dem is because the newspapers say he is...kinda like Obama being smart.

Gmax

The magic number, and the one that will make me click my heels in the air and exclaim out loud "glory to the Lord" is 79 in the House. That will exactly flip flop the Republicans and Marxists. Anything less will be at least a small disappointment. More of course might make me drink unto excess. Here is to wanton drunkenness on November 2nd.

patch

Intrade contract for MA-4

http://www.intrade.com/index.jsp?request_operation=trade&request_type=action&selConID=738981

Bye, Barney!

Captain Hate

The only reason anyone would think Webb was a conservative Dem is because the newspapers say he is...kinda like Obama being smart.

Like Andrew Sullivan being a conservative?

Janet the tea-vangelist!

exactly.

Captain Hate

With Toonces sending Slick out to try and sweet-talk Meeks out of running less than a week before the election, even if you ignore the racial aspects of it, doesn't it seem like this is the sign of pure desperation? I don't think I've ever witnessed such a disorganized bunch of fools running around like their pants are on fire. You'd need Benny Hill music to choreograph it (yes I know it's Boots Randolph's "Yakety Sax").

Rick Ballard

52 seats will revert the House to where it was before Howard Dean sold the Democrat Party to the commies. 78 seats would represent a 50% penalty on the sale (fair, IMO) and everything above that is gravy.

I wonder what it will take to generate enough Dem votes to overturn a BOzo (clown car chauffeur extraordinaire) veto?

Gmax

Every Democrat kicked to the curb in a "safe" district is a message contributed the the Scared Straight program. The fear of leaving their head on the election field of play will make at least a few Democrats vote like Tom Coburn for the next two years. Now whether or not they are conservative converts or not, we know that one or two Democrats is enough to claim bipartisanship in a bill. We should learn well from our Democrat colleague, eh?

Gmax

Did I say GO RANGERS yet?

Barbara

How is Joe Miller doing in Alaska?

I heard that the Alaska Supreme Court overruled a lower court's decision as is allowing the write-in candidates' names to be posted at the polling places.

Melinda Romanoff

Rick-

Have a look at the polling stats from a "blue" point of view, locally.

Interesting angles, especially the 72 pick up, and 50-50 result.

Just something different, but he is well respected here.

Clarice

janet, kinda like McCain being a maverick.

Rick Ballard

Mel,

Thanks for that link - it's a well researched and thought out piece.

The horse race stuff is fun but that piece points out the fact that the Republicans have been working from a well thought, planned and executed strategic vision. It's just a bit deeper than Howard Dean's "Last Hurrah for the Commies" fantasy, as will be seen beginning in '12.

I'd love to see the executive overview of the plan. I have a reasonably good idea of who developed and promoted it.

Gmax

"Well thought out and planned and executed" does not sound like my father's Republican Party. If true, I am unaware of it. For too long, the Republicans have relied upon the voters to just show up and vote for the better candidat.e

glasater

I believe the R's have the "young guns" ready to rip it up and are pretty savvy on the internet battlefield.

glasater

Well just 'heh':

D's throwing another Hail Mary pass.

daddy

Clarice,

Wonderful video of the beautiful 106 year old Piano Player with the astonishing zest for life. Thank you for that. My youngest, also with pumpkin guts all over her hands and elbows, really loved it, plus learned something valuable of life.

Clarice

You're welcome, daddy.Pass it on. It's one of the loveliest things I've ever seen in my life.

Clarice

glasater, per ann althouse $300k+ people did NOT say they'd be there..most said they wouldn't and the rest said maybe..


glasater

Had missed that three hundred dollar figure Clarice. That's a lot of money for the under fifty crowd.

glasater

Heh--I thought the attendees were being charged that amount. Sorry!

ugg boots

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