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October 23, 2010



Elsewhere in the NYT, more evidence that ODonnell is too stupid to fill Biden's big loafers:

[quote]In an interview with Al Hunt of Bloomberg News scheduled to be shown Friday night, Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. commented on the need for disclosure when corporate interests contribute to political groups.

“I was amazed at the amount of money, this $200 billion of money that is — where there’s no accountability,” he said. “When I say accountability, we don’t know where it’s coming from. There’s no disclosure, so the folks watching the ad can’t make a judgment based upon motive when you say it’s paid for by so-and-so.”[/quote]


the article does not mention whites


was he at the imaginary diner when he spoke to Hunt?



Your link from a previous thread of Jackass videos interspersed with Dem politician comments was great. And also just read Rush's ">http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_102210/content/01125112.guest.html"> dramatic reading of David Brook's latest column, mentioned I think by Extraneous. Sorry I missed hearing that live. That must have been great radio.

Danube of Thought

A lusty -19 at Raz today.

Rick Ballard

The RCP Battle for the House page is as invigorating as BOzo at -19. They finally tipped over into a flat graphic acknowledgment regarding the size of the building wave.

Army of Davids

B of A (Countrywide) is looking at about $1.2 Trillion in paper that was facilitated onto the secondary market via Fannie and Freddie from 2004 to 2008 (per WSJ). As well as another $700 billion or so that was sold without a government guarantee. Some of that was originated at B of A before they took on Countrywide. But likely most was Countrywide.

A good chunk of this paper will default or has already. And there are lawsuits already on this.

It's worth remembering that Angelo Mozilo had "Friends" at Fannie and Freddie as well. If memory serves.... Jamie Gorelick, Jim Johnson and Franklin Raines come to mind.

This is now a liability of the taxpayer.

Also...while the lawyers are sorting out the paperwork backlog it's worth remembering that MERS is owned by Fannie and Freddie (David Kotak)


Wow,Rick, RCP now has Allen West's Dist 22 leaning GOP!!

Rick Ballard


West has run an excellent campaign and Klein's cornered rat defense is proving very ineffective. It's interesting to watch BOzo stack Blue Dog cadavers around the firewalls in Blue Hells (where they're really not needed) but the only impact that I've noticed from his efforts cannot be construed as "positive".

When the dust settles on November 3rd, the Dems are going to be left with sclerotic proglodytes from decaying Blue Hells as the dominant faction. Redistricting should polish off 8-10 of them in '12 but there willl still be 70 or so albatrosses hanging on the party's neck for the next election.

And that's not to mention the super-sized albatross stinking up the Oval Office. I believe that Dean is going to reap the same reward as everyone else who ever signed on the smoldering line with Mephistopheles.

Nice job, Howard. Hope you enjoy the results.


Well, perhaps they should don turbans when they go for a jog.


White guys suck. Where have you been?

Danube of Thought

Nate Silver's model has now hit 50. This is gonna be great fun, folks.

Cecil Turner

This bit of metaphor mangling from Harry Reid is worth a chuckle:

"We found ourselves in a hole that I didn't dig, but I have dug, dug and dug to try to get out of that hole," Reid said.
Someone ought to tell him the first rule of holes: when you're in one, stop digging.

Janet the tea-vangelist!

"We found ourselves in a hole that I didn't dig, but I have dug, dug and dug to try to get out of that hole," Reid said.

So what if Reid said that...O'Donnell & Palin are stupid...and um...they are stupid & you are an evil racist....and shut up.

Ignatz Ratzkywatzky

--We found ourselves in a hole that I didn't dig, but I have dug, dug and dug to try to get out of that hole," Reid said.--

Let us hope the good people of Navada fill it in while Harry's animated corpse is still in it.


A lusty -19 at Raz today.

How high can it go?

Danube of Thought

Jane, I think it has hit -23 a couple of times.

Army of Davids

I haven't heard much about Reid crying "insurance company failure" during the months leading up to the 2008 election.

A failure that didn't happen.

But then I haven't heard much about Schumer's IndyMac leak that lead to the run on the bank.


Heh Ignatz!

Frank Luntz' Nevada focus group the other night had 'so-called' R's whining about losing the Reid clout in DC.

If Reid wins it'll be because of that kind of pressure on voters.


Let's aim for -33 Dot.


Do not go further without laughing yourself silly over


I dont think I have posted about this before, but if I have forgive me. I am quite certain that most pollsters are unstating in their polling the amplitude of this wave. It is going to be massive.

Many pollster use a technique that norms out an election based on likely voter turnout and even forces the sample to a predetermined model, DRI are effectively balanced to pollster expectation. This is what Rasmussen is doing as an example.

The problem comes about in a wave, where one side is more motivated to turn out than the other, this technique will hide a bunch of that effect by showing a less lopsided turnout through this forcing to a predetermined model.

If you look at what Gallup has said three weeks running is the result is R + 17. That is in the turnout model that uses 40% of RVs showing up at the polls. That is simply unprecedented in my lifetime and will mean that any Democrat who did win in 2006 by 58.5 - 41.5 or more, is in serious jeopardy.

Expect to see shock and awe on Nov 2, particularly on liberal talking head faces. It may be fun to watch MSDNC just to see their abjectness.


Any Democrat who did NOT



I worker so hard


Heh. She's worked so hard, but what has she actually accomplished?


I totally agree, Gmax. Most turnout models are way off.

Also, many House races are not being polled at all or have not been polled in months. I think we will see several of these Dem seats tumble as well.

A wave this big will flip the Senate, too, even though it's harder (at the moment) to see how.

Danube of Thought

Early third quarter: Navy 28, Notre Dame 10.


Good. I like ND like daddy likes Duke.


I worked so hard to do a good presention in
my 01:37 LUN.
Neo came along at 01:40 and did it perfectly.
Thanks Neo!

DO Not miss that video. It'll make your day a little brighter.

Danube of Thought

Late third quarter: Navy 35, Notre Dame 10.


Obama's 2012 opponent gave the weekly GOP response today, LUN.

Meanwhile, RCP moved four incumbent Democrat races from toss-up to leans GOP, and now predicts a 59.5 seat GOP gain. Getting to be more fun by the minute.


"Late third quarter: Navy 35, Notre Dame 10."

I guess everyone is watching that epic struggle.

Danube of Thought

A lot of Irish fans fled the scene at the end of the third.

Try Hang Gliding

Well, the average age for hang glider pilots is 50. Talk about Peter Pan envy.


you have to laugh at the video linked below. Boxer's people hired illegal aliens to hold up anti - Fiorina signs at one of the debates in September. This has become a circus.

Janet the tea-vangelist!

Matt, That video is great. There is always great stuff on the internet...does it break through to the non-news junkie citizens?
(We don't watch much TV)


I got this from a guy who I know to be very detail oriented. I did not do the analysis myself but believe he would not do a sloppy job:

1st week of early voting is down in NV

In 2008 Clark county was 71% of early vote for state–this year its 64.66%.

Voter registration for NV
410811R –36.69%

Early vote totals

68449D 42.48%
68574R 42.55%
24346 17.10% Others/indie/no party

So for the 1st week the GOP despite being 5.5% behind in registration tops the democrats in early vote. Plus rural and other GOP areas make up a greater % of the vote.


OK here is a fun fact. Of the four teams in the ALCS & NLCS which player has the highest batting average? Six games for Yanks and Rangers and 5 for the NL teams heading into tonight. This should surprise you.

Give up?

Mitch Moreland .389

Higher than Josh Hamilton, Robinson Cano and Cody Ross all who got a hell of a lot more publicity than rookie Mitch.

Ignatz Ratzkywatzky

Nice to see you, Try Hang Gliding.
I always enjoy reading your blog.

Rick Ballard

Does anyone think any bills will be passed in the dead duck session? I'm wondering if extended, extended, extended unemployment benefits might be allowed to expire without much comment.

Danube of Thought

I sure hope none of the RINO's wimps out during lame-duck filibuster time.



I wouldn't put it past the Dems to be mischievious in the dead duck session (and they'll drag a bunch of races into the courts where they'll win after the 5th or 6th recount). They have a budget to get out the door, tax cuts they have to let expire, and an air tax regime they'd like to get in place. Letting the tax cuts expire will be the easiest to accomplish and the budget can be chocked full of goodies like Santa's sack.


Frank Luntz is a mediocre moron. I wish I were in line when Hannity was handing out careers.

I was busy winning a triathlon:




Rick Ballard


What do the Blue Dogs with the stench of gas gangrene from the bayonet wounds administered by the proglodytes in their nostrils get out of the deal? The Blue Hell proglodytes will control what remains of the caucus and they're going to be battling each other over who takes the biggest staff hits. Hoyer is going to be right behind Pelosi - with a raised dagger inn his hand.

I would tend to agree with you if I could see through the blizzard of resumes that are already filling the air.

Rick Ballard

that is already filling the air.

Jack is Back!


I happend to know Frank Luntz and he is not what you think he is. He is a very smart guy who has consulted many successful campaigns way before Sean Hannity ever met him. I worked with Frank in Washington back in 1988. Didn't know Hannity was on TV then.

Try Hang Gliding


Thank you. I'm always lurking. The comment section here is the best on the internet.


JiB, I am glad to here that. Maybe it is the Hannity effect. Luntz' segments always seem to lack any punch. "Moron" was wrong but mediocre is how his stuff comes across compared to the fanfare preceding it.


--"JiB, I am glad to here hear that."--

Janet the tea-vangelist!

with a raised dagger inn his hand.

The Raised Dagger Inn...sounds like a place a pack of Hobbits would stay on their journey to Mt. Doom.

Danube of Thought

I had lunch with Luntz the day before Super Bowl XXVII in Pasadena. (1993; Dallas 52, Buffalo 17. It was the game in which that fast little white boy, Don Beebe, caught Leon Letts from behind and knocked the ball away as Letts was hotdogging it while about to cross the goal line.). Luntz seemed like a genial, geeky guy, definitely conservative.

Tom Maguire

Re Harry Reid and

"We found ourselves in a hole that I didn't dig, but I have dug, dug and dug to try to get out of that hole," Reid said.

I think he was having a flashback to that scene from Dirty Cool Hand Harry:

Axelrod: That ditch is Barack Obama's ditch. And I told him that dirt in it's your dirt. What's your dirt doin' in his ditch?

Harry: I don't know, Boss.

Axelrod: You better get in there and get it out, boy.

I might be misremembering.


I have to say I'd rather poke my eyes out than listen once again to the undecided voters in Luntz' focus groups the night before an election describing why the F*() they can't make up their stupid minds.

But I'm a grouchy old lady YMMV.



Point noted. Pelosi's gratitude wouldn't be worth much. I think I even said before that the dead duck session won't be very productive. I'm curious exactly how the Dems and the Obama Administration are going to deal with the tax cut. I could see a revolt in the House and an extension of all of them pass, but I don't see Obama signing it. I also don't understand the Dems strategy of letting the budget go to the point that the next Congress will have to finish it. The Reps can use the budget fight as a "teachable moment" as they bring in pictures and witnesses from Detroit area shacks getting weatherization dollars. Turn the stimulus from "failure" to "corrupt failure".

Should be interesting.


The most stunning Luntz focus group was the one about two weeks ago of California registered voters. Not a single member of the panel understood the basic facts from Whitman's maid story. Most were so poorly informed that voting would be act of criminal negligence. When you see these dunces, you have to wonder how we have been able to keep our democracy this long. Depressing actually.


Extremely ot, after the troll who shall not be named, was dispatched I found your brief in the WV mine case, Clarice,


Gmax, that may explain my view of Luntz' work. Out here we have dead sides so I am used to the people he polls. The last spurring we got was a chance to make Tom McClintock governor. That got f'd up and I became callus.


You know what is going to happen in lame duck session? The Bush tax cuts will be extended. To everyone.

Its will be a true scared straight experience and that will be the first step in the kabuki dance where Democrats go back to lying to the voters about what they believe.

I will be grateful for not facing a tax increase regardless of the motivation of many of the congress.

Ignatz Ratzkywatzky

Do you think Bozo will sign it Gmax?


Early voting tea leaves reading. Tsunami anyone?

2008: D +1.8
2010: R +5.3
R Gain: +7.1

2008: D +8.3
2010: R +19.1
R Gain: +27.4

2008: D +18
2010: D +7.8
R Gain: +10.2

2008: D +29.3
2010: D +2.4
R Gain: +26.9

2008: D +13.4
2010: D +0.1
R Gain: +13


Luntz is reasonably worthwhile in his analysis of how campaign language is or is not effective, but I absolutely can NOT watch those focus group segments. I change the channel immediately.

Melinda Romanoff

I disagree on lame duck.

If the tsunami effect is as big as suspected, the spiteful, whiny, little children of the left will cram everything they can slap ink on, out of utter spite.

Then the Democratic Party will need a new name.

Maybe the "Corvairs", I don't think it's being used right now.

Thomas Collins

I don't do triathlons, and I don't have fancy bike outfits, running shoes or swimming watches. But I did my triathlon today: raking the leaves, taking the garbage to the dump, and changing the car oil. Do I get written up in the NYT?


Well they are pirates of a sort, so it does fit


raking the leaves, taking the garbage to the dump, and changing the car oil

Good for you, TC. I've spent the day working on balance sheets, the employee manual, a list of consultants who will get paid from an overhead pool, and projected grant draws in anticipation of submitting an indirect rate proposal to NIH next week.

Now to read a bunch of NSF proposals.



I think Obama gets some counseling from the rather distraught remaining member of the phone booth caucus ( formerly known as the Democrat caucus ) who want to have a chance to run in 2012. Some major grumbling but ultimately he declares that its only temporary and the economy is in such dire straits that it has to be done.

Why is Gitmo still open? Why is there no public option?

Reason will ultimately prevail, it just that it takes a long time for it to percolate through the dense mind of the progressive.

Thomas Collins

Three more and we'll have a decathlon, DrJ!


I think even the Dems (most of them, anyway) now realize that jamming "Healthcare" through when the voting public clearly and loudly said we don't want it was a very bad thing to do, politically--they did it because they thought it would consolidate their power for a long time. They were wrong, and now are trying, unsuccessfully, to back away.

I think extending the tax cuts will pass--with a veto-proof majority if necessary.


">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4ZO2FD4pNA"> French Decathlon

Thomas Collins

Great clip, Threadkiller. My favorite is the pole vault into the bushes!


If you're interested in punk Islam (think Michael Muhammad Knight), The Documentary Channel has "Taquacore: The Birth of Punk Islam" on right now, later tonight, and a couple of times this coming Friday.



I can never remember how to spell Arabic (or pseudo-Arabic) words, probably because so many of them transliterate into English about six different ways.

Thomas Collins

See LUN (via Instapundit) for an article on a debate moderator feeling disrespected because an audience at an American debate went ahead and said the Pledge of Allegiance before the debate. The debate moderator should win the award for unintentional self parody for 2010.


TC - you should read Don Surber's report from the guy who actually did it.


Just for a laugh -

"Call Me Senator" at LUN

 Ann..Proud Mean Girl


It seems like everyday I read about another "shocking patriotic" story. Ordinary proud Americans are standing up encouraging the next guy to stand up and the next.

Here is another:

NC Vets Stand Guard Over Christian Flag

I really believe the politicians and the media are the ones that will be shocked next Tuesday when the wave of people standing up overwhelm them.

JM Hanes


I've been wondering if Republican enthusiasm might actually lead to disproportionate early voting on the right, while aggressive Democrat GOTV efforts won't really affect turnout on the left till election day.

Conventional wisdom apparently suggests that contests tighten up as voters start really paying attention, and I suspect we may end up with a wave of squeakers -- with a potential for attendant challenges. I'm just hoping we have enough decisive wins to cement a Republican majority in the House with big enough margin to protect a conservative agenda from the wafflers.

Thomas Collins

Jane, I sent an email to your work email address, so check your spam file if you don't receive it (I know in the past your alert spam filter has put me with the Nigerian banker communications). :-))


Will do TC

JM Hanes

Oh Lordy, Michael Steele is going to be on Meet the Press tomorrow. I thought he'd been banished to the "Fire Pelosi Bus Tour" for the duration (kind of like the late great Howard Dean in exile).

Otherwise, the Sunday Talk Show lineup actually looks like it might be interesting for a change. I love seeing Ed Gillespie out front. He's faster on his feet than anyone else -- unfortunately, he's an equally fast talker which makes it hard to keep up.



The Democrats have been the disproportionate users of early voting in the past. So far that is not happening anywhere near the extent of 2008 and at least in some places Republicans are far exceeding their prior turnouts.

Now I suppose it possible that the Democrats all arouse themselves off mom's coach on voting day, but I would say if you are seeing a change in behavior, its a better bet to think that change in behavior continues.

Of course there will be close races. Some Democrats will survive near death experiences. But there is going to be some names that no one has been mentioning, go down in a smoking hole in the ground. Skid marks optional.

Thomas Collins

Ann, I think whether or not the GOP win in a little over a week is of tsunami proportions, regular folks are going to stay involved, each in their own way (political activity, protecting flags, reciting the Pledge, and other activities). Most folks want to live their lives in reliance on a government providing a framework under which we can pursue our unalienable rights. Now that folks understand that the Ruling Class mocks the notion that a government's reason for being is to protect the Declaration's unalienable rights, they won't quiet down.


Speaking of the Ruling class, some judge up in Fairbanks, has demanded Miller release all his personnel records, fishing buddy with Ruedrich and company, I wonder

Rick Ballard

"to protect a conservative agenda"


AFAICT there is no mandate for a conservative agenda whatsoever. This election is simply total revulsion on the part of the Muddle towards the callous disregard of political reality by the proglodytes. I anticipate mostly blocking action - across the board - from Republicans in '11 with a repeal of HCR passing the House and then getting kicked around in the Senate while the legal cases grind through the courts. We'll probably see a stay of implementation while the appeal process plays out but most of the legislative effort will go towards framing issues so that a mandate can be achieved in '12 - with BOzo's replacement ready to sign repeal should the atrocity be approved by the Supremes.

The early vote in Florida is the result of a test of the type of effort which will be rolled out in '12 wherever it is deemed to be necessary. Florida was chosen because of its redistricting potential. Texas is already in hand so there wasn't any need to push early voting there.

I can understand healthy suspicion regarding the size of the wave but if Gallup's low turnout model doesn't drop below 15 on Monday we may well be looking at 80-90 seats flipping. That will make Speaker Boehner's and Majority Whip Cantor's lives very interesting over the next three months. 80-90 freshman on hand makes herding cats look like organizing a Sunday School class.


Hiya, Narcisco! I left you a birthday laugh on the Nothing to Fear thread :)

 Ann..Proud Mean Girl


Dang! That is exactly what I was trying to say. :)

It is a good thing that no one in the media has recapped all these shocking little patriotic tales from across our nation. They might see what is accumulating and growing strength. Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2010 marks the day a powerful volcanic errupts, an underwater landslide begins, and the earth shakes.

JM Hanes

In other news:

President Obama has booked the entire city of Mubai for a November layover on the way to Indonesia. While he regrets that he will have absolutely no contact with the Indian people, culture or cuisine, he assured Prime Minister Singh that his pit stop alone is "a symbol of our shared aspirations and of my respect for Indians everywhere. Indian history predates our own, you know."


The NYTimes covers the opening of a Preview Exhibition destined for the Bush Library:

"New Bush Exhibit Opens Rift at S.M.U."

I blame NPR.


Joe and Tim are lucky neither was portrayed in a red shirt.


I saw it Ann, thank you, hard to imagine such
a thing as the Christian Flag, could come out of NYC of all places, a hundred years ago, then ago the Cuban Flag, came some 60 years earlier, as a result of the one who I take my handle from, Narciso Lopez,

Uncle BigBad

The debate moderator missed an opportunity to remain a non-moron. She could have sweetly said, "Of course we're going to recited the pledge. Thanks for reminding me." Situation diffused. Think of it as NPR CEO Syndrome.

That moron could have quietly called Juan in and said something such as, "You may have noticed we're all a bunch of communists, and I don't think you fit in. And I think you would like a way out, so I'm going to let you out of your contract. Bye." Not a peep in the press.


Some lefties have been griping at Gallup and they have finally had enough. They have a longer and very thoughtful response but here is the key graphs:

Most available polling data find that this year has -- to date --been an extraordinary year for Republicans in the battle for control of the House. Gallup data and a number of other polls confirm that voters up to this point in time are more heavily Republican that we have seen in modern midterm elections. Of course, the structure of this race may yet change in the remaining week and a half of the campaign, and if it does, our subsequent data should reflect it.

Our likely voter modeling of the midterm generic ballot has historically been quite accurate.

Remember three weeks running it has been +17


I was seeing in the On Dead Tree Journal, that there are three polls that model a Dem
holdout, don't know what Koolaid they are drinking

JM Hanes


I don't even think in terms of mandates any more. An 80/90 flip would be more than a little gratifying, but despite your cynicism about the muddle, I do think of you as a natural optimist. I'm just looking for a working majority; unruly freshmen will be welcomed with open arms and promptly reeducated. Popcorn definitely looks like a good investment, though, doesn't it?

 Ann..Proud Mean Girl


Hopefully Steele has hung out with Palin enough on their bus tour where she mentions "Micheal" a lot!
(watch it :))

If Steele asks whether Obama is golfing or packing for his Mubai extravangaza on Sunday, we will know for sure. He he he

P.S. Can't wait for the sacred cow designer clothes line.

Thomas Collins

Uribe homers. Giants up 3-2 in the top of the eighth.

JM Hanes


Speaking of clothing (and michaels!), I thought Juan Williams remark about how "Michelle has this Stokely Carmichael in a designer dress thing going on," was hysterically funny. It's certainly the funniest thing I've ever heard Juan say -- maybe the only funny thing I've heard him say.

JM Hanes


So, as a Red Sox expat, who am I rooting for here?


Michael Steele

Who's that?

is going to be on Meet the Press

What's that?


I suppose it possible that the Democrats all arouse themselves off mom's couch on voting day

Why should it be different from any other Tuesday night?


GMax, One of the things that amazed me when I first started on the internet was to see how shockingly little most people know about their govt and legal system,.Within the limits I have to write, I always try to explain how the law works in a particular matter because of what I learned reading comments.

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