Election Day Open Thread

Here is the Washington Examiner hour by hour guide to the unfolding drama.

The NY Times has their preview here.

And for our friends on the left, Nate Silver offers some reasons to keep hope alive.  (Remember, he is identifying possible excuses if the polls underestimate Dem strength, not predicting.)  I like this:

1. The cellphone effect. This one is pretty simple, really: a lot of American adults (now about one-quarter of them) have ditched their landlines and rely exclusively on their mobile phones, and a lot of pollsters don’t call mobile phones. Cellphone-only voters tend to be younger, more urban, and less white — all Democratic demographics — and a study by Pew Research suggests that the failure to include them might bias the polls by about 4 points against Democrats, even after demographic weighting is applied.

I'm changing my ring tone to "Highway to Hell" if Nancy is still in charge next year.

 

Comments

[daddy]

Rob, that makes good sense.

BTW Megan the beautiful is reporting on Voting Fraud allegations in 4 states: Nevada, Missouri, Illinois and I think Minnesota (sorry, they took it off the screen.)

Anybody got a 'go-to' site for Voter fraud?

[Clarice]

Barbara Tuchman once had an hilarious description of the retinue and habiliments that accompanied the fop Duc DuBarry. I have to dig it up. It sounds like the Obamas.

[hit and run]

http://www.myfoxphilly.com/dpp/news/politics/local_politics/New_Black_Panther_Party_Spotted_At_Philadelphia_Polling_Place_110210>NBPP alert in Philly. Taken from a comment at Hot Air...

[centralcal]

Daddy: Fox News has a special page for all reports of voter fraud.

[Sara (Pal2Pal)]

Dan Riehl is reporting that the Coons campaign in Delaware is sending out emails asking "where is our turnout?"

[DebinNC]

More voter fraud links

[daddy]

Thanks CC,

Here is Sara's link to Riehl: ">http://www.riehlworldview.com/carnivorous_conservative/2010/11/coons-email-blast-who-stole-my-turnout-dude.html"> Coons Email Blast: Who Stole My Turnout, Dude?

[Dave (in MA)]

daddy,
Voter fraud?

In Minnesota?
Come on, get real.

Surely you jest.

[Rob Crawford]

Rob, that makes good sense.

At least I got something out of playing the "Harpoon" computer game for hours on end.

[Sara (Pal2Pal)]

OMG, Biden is saying he thinks they can still hang on to the House.

[Jim Ryan]

COONS CAMPAIGN STAFFER: Woo hoo! Coons!

DEM AUDIENCE: [A SMATTERING OF POLITE APPLAUSE]

COONS CAMPAIGN STAFFER: Um.... Woo hoo! Y'all fired up?! Mr. Coons has entered the building! Woo hoo!

DEM AUDIENCE:

COONS CAMPAIGN STAFFER: Um...

[daddy]

Off to walk the dog while you guys save the Republic, but...

JiB,

bgates I think told us he is down there to see the Shuttle Launch with a visiting house guest. If you guys could somehow get together for beverages might be fun.

KayyyyyyyyyyyyRooooooooooo

[Pagar]

"Biden is saying" Didn't Saddam keep a guy around that would say what ever he wanted to hear?
-----------------------
Emerging Corruption has this app for reporting voter fraud from iphone, etc. But I can't figure out where the results go.

[squaredance]

As Marx said:

"Pardon me,I was using the subjunctive instead of the past tense. Yes, we're way past tents. We are living in bungalows now."

(That would be Groucho and not Karl, and if he had not said this then, still it would be true, if truth there be.)

Anyway...

I am happy to report from Manhattan that that most highly irritating sight, last seen in Nov. 2008, of droves of surly, hung-over moonbats and perky, liberal yuppies wrapped in lines around the corners of polling places is not to be seen today. Not at all.

The mood appears doleful; there is scant alacrity.

How sweet it is.

[Sara (Pal2Pal)]

Well did you?

[Thomas Collins]

Steady but not gigantic voting crowd (at least compared to the morning Brown/Coakley race voting crowd) at Precinct E in Needham this morning. Very subdued and businesslike. Fewer signs than usual outside the polling place. John O'Leary (GOP state rep candidate) signs most prominent.

I share DOT's wish that we all could be together this evening. However, I think we'll all enjoy the night. I'm dedicating this night to PUK and bad, our beloved 1773 warriors!

[anduril]

Imagine the outcry among "conservatives" if a politician campaigned with a label pin analogous to the one Sarah (Palin) is wearing in the image below (pic taken in WV)--but featuring, say, a Mexican flag or an Irish or Italian or Polish flag!

Does she have a problem figuring out which country she wants to represent?

[anduril]

Hmmm. Label pin? label lapel pin.

[Thomas Collins]

And hopefully PUK will take in good humor the fact that 1773 involved a little kerfuffle with our friends across the pond!

[glasater]

BOzo has already PO'd India with this sale to China.

200 mil a day trip brings thoughts of a Hugo Chevas wannabee to my mind.

[Jane (sit on the couch or save your country)]

Daddy,

Is there any country in the world you have not been to?

[Clarice]

If anyone has a copy of " Distant Mirror" by Tuchman handy, the description of the Duc DuBarry fits the mambo to Mumbai to a T.

[Dave (in MA)]

Somehow it seems redundant to photoshop Pelosi.

[Charlie Martin]

Pluperfect subjunctive or misspelling?

Scrod?

[Charlie Martin]

Does she have a problem figuring out which country she wants to represent?

Do you find a lot of difficulty distinguishing between your friends and your family?

[Charlie Martin]

Either way, we're scrod.

Crap, someone else knew that joke.

[Sara (Pal2Pal)]

Maybe to you in MA, Dave. Not to us in Calif. who are looking at another 6 years of Boxer and more disaster with another go-round with the Moonbeam.

That's why I've adopted Toomey in my home state of Penna. and Bielat in MA in honor of Jane.

[Sara (Pal2Pal)]

Also West in Florida, who deserves the win more than any other running and would be the biggest asset for the Repubs as well.

[Rob Crawford]

Anuril sure gets off on judenhass.

[Charlie Martin]

Given the thin sourcing I think it is irresponsible to be tweeting a headline like that, as people will immediately conclude that the shooting is political.

Porch, Jim's a friend of mine, but I've got to say he has a real tendency to post what he thinks serves his political interests without checking it closely.

[Appalled]

andruil:

Italian or Polish flag -- nobody would care. Mexican flag -- you have a point.

But think for a second -- nobody figures that Italian or Polish heritage means anything in the United States except an affinity for really good ethnic cooking. With respect to the Isreali flag, many GOP members in this country feel an affinity for that country that in, their mind, does not conflict with their afection to this country.

Mexico, on the other hand, encourages immigration to this country that is illegal under the laws of this country, and gets upset when we undertake to enforce the laws against the illegal conduct their government encourages. This kind of gives an average citizen the right to be, shall we say, suspicious of someone wearing both an American and Mexican flag, don't you think?

[Appalled]

(And Andruil, did you learn that a picture is worth a thousand of someone else's words?)

[Porchlight]

Charlie,

Yes, he does seem a bit of a bomb-thrower, though the flip side of that coin is that he does find and pick up a lot of things others miss.

To mix metaphors.

[Janet the tea-vangelist!]

I have that same pin on my purse. USA/Israel, USA/VA Tech, Arizona flag, Jeremiah 29:11 pin, Pro-life pin, America Supports You Freedom Walk pin (we don't have those anymore since Obama was elected), and a God Bless America pin.

[glasater]

For twitter fans--here's an interesting link:

http://www.wiredelection.com/wep2010/

[Frau Stimmzettel]

One of the two precincts at the colleges here has a little over 2000 students listed. About 1500 were "D" and 160 were "R." Not many had voted yet. There is a $95 million school bond issue which will soak the property owners (current and those who later buy the houses) who are already paying for a couple of other bonds. Why do these out of town and some out of state students get to hike our tax bills?Grrrr...

--"Is Aunt Zeituni going to India? Mother Robinson?"
Mother Robinson will be there. Who do you think makes sure that FLOTUS brushes her hair 100 strokes each night?

[MarkO]

Charlie, I've laughed at that joke for at least 30 years. It never gets old.

[Jack is Back!]

daddy & Rob,

There is an Indian Air Force field near Mumbai. I think it is Poona and if memory serves me correctly it has a 10K foot runway. Don't know if it is still active. Most Indian AF bases are heavily concentrated in the NW near Pakistan and Kashmir as well as toward Bangladesh. Flew into Mumbai on business a few times and I flew back in the head/WC of a BA 747, if you know what I mean:)

[hit and run]

Add to the list of "if it helps you sleep at night" things the Dems will be telling themselves why they are getting clobbered:

It's just the http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20101102/us_time/08599202880000>Year of the Fickle Independent (who will probably turn back to Democrats in another 2 years),according to Time.

[Boatbuilder]

"Duc duBarry." Could there be a better nickname for our current prez? (Besides "Toonces," of course).

[Mike Huggins]

I'm with Sara (Pal2Pal), and I'll go with the "Highway to Hell" ringtone. It's nice to see what's going on in the rest of the country, and although I can hope, here in LA-LA-Land it's probably going to be politics as usual, with SENATOR Boxer and Gov. Moonbeam, and our bullet train to the cap-and-trade economic apocalypse and a world of "green jobs" made in China. I hope I'm wrong.

[Boatbuilder]

Squaredance--you're in Manhattan? No wonder you're so ticked off all the time. (Not Today, though!)

[Frau Stimmzettel]

"The word scrod is said to be derived from the now-obsolete Dutch word schrode,which means “a piece cut off.”If this is the true origin of the word scrod,it makes sense that it would mean a piece of fish that had been cut,or filleted."

Speaking of scrod...How much will India demand if we want them to keep our scrodBarry?

[Ranger]

Illinois update:

Turnout is light in "urban" parts of Cook County. Suburban Cook is higher, and there are rumors that downstate is going to be higher than normal.

Side rumor is that Republicans have an outside shot at takeing the State House of Representitives. That would be astonishing, given that there is no state Republican party to speak of at this point.

[jimmyk]

I voted in Manhattan as well, and it seemed a bit more crowded than usual for a midterm election, but we do have both senators and a governor on the ballot. Nothing like 2008, though, and in any case, Manhattan (the upper west side in particular) is not exactly representative of national trends. A neighbor was handing out pro-Cuomo leaflets half a block away and when I said I voted for Paladino he laughed, assuming I was joking.

[Melinda Romanoff]

Sarah, C-cal, or DoT-

AJ Strata links to a new SacBee poll that says all the earlier polls are off the mark.

Could this be true? (leaving aside his 15% Dem defection model).

I would love to get your all's take on this.

[Thomas Collins]

Barney Frank is complaining about Sean Bielat's so-called right wing tactics. Is Barney preparing his concession speech (right wing money, fear, etc.)? See LUN.

[hit and run]

I reject the accusations of racism and the idea that it was deliberate -- but this was just dumb,dumb,dumb http://www.news-record.com/content/2010/11/02/article/democrats_police_checkpoint_may_have_suppressed_turnout>by the Greensboro PD:

GREENSBORO — A Greensboro police checkpoint on Phillips Avenue this morning could have turned voters away from the polls, according to the executive director of the state Democratic Party. Police operated a checkpoint from 10 a.m. to 12 p.m., stopping all cars during that time between Drexel Road and Lombardy Street on Phillips Avenue. “I find it really hard to believe that we needed a random — allegedly — policy check point in front of a highly African American, highly Democratic precinct on a Tuesday morning that just happens to be Election Day,” said Andrew Whalen, executive director of the state Democratic Party. The checkpoint is near three voting sites, most notably Peeler Recreation Center.

Gee,I wonder what is going to dominate all the local coverage of the election today?

[Porchlight]

Could this be true? (leaving aside his 15% Dem defection model).

Given the astronomical Gallup numbers, maybe AJ is right and the Dem defection is real.

[Rob Crawford]

Barney Frank is complaining about Sean Bielat's so-called right wing tactics.

Don't tell me -- these tactics involve people voting for him?

[Danube of Thought]

Ninety minutes till the first polls close. Will have to watch sans Martinis for a while--gotta be sure to be around at the finish.

[Rob Crawford]

Will have to watch sans Martinis for a while--gotta be sure to be around at the finish.

If this were AOS, I'd say something about watching sans pants. But it's not, so I won't.

The really pathetic thing is I've got homework to do tonight, and really should focus on that.

[Melinda Romanoff]

Ranger-

Shhhhh. Don't jinx it.

[jimmyk]

AJ Strata links to a new SacBee poll that says all the earlier polls are off the mark.

Weren't they far (like double digits) off the mark in the primaries? I know the primary day poll in NY for Paladino-Lazio showed a dead heat, and Paladino won 65-35. Not that the GE is the same thing, but I'd expect some carry over. There's something going on with turnout that the pollsters aren't figuring out.

[Pagar]

The Union Leader is reporting that there will apparently be an additional hour to vote in Pittsburgh NH. It appears the school is the only polling place in the town. I do not see how Jim Hoft's report could irresponsible. If my grandchildren were in that school and there were reports of shootings/deaths in the area I would expect the school to be locked down. If I were heading to the polls in such an area, reports that kept me out of the area would be appreciated.

"Polling hours to be extended in Pittsburg after fatal shooting
Efforts are under way to extend polling hours in Pittsburg in the wake of this morning's shooting that left one dead and two wounded.

At the request of the Attorney General and the town moderator, both major political parties have agreed to extend the polling hours at the town polling place by one hour, to 8 p.m. to make up for a closure this morning.

An announcement from the Attorney General's Office is expected shortly, after the required court approval.

Polling hours to be extended in Pittsburg after fatal shooting
Efforts are under way to extend polling hours in Pittsburg in the wake of this morning's shooting that left one dead and two wounded.

At the request of the Attorney General and the town moderator, both major political parties have agreed to extend the polling hours at the town polling place by one hour, to 8 p.m. to make up for a closure this morning.

An announcement from the Attorney General's Office is expected shortly, after the required court approval.

"Polling hours to be extended in Pittsburg after fatal shooting
Efforts are under way to extend polling hours in Pittsburg in the wake of this morning's shooting that left one dead and two wounded.

At the request of the Attorney General and the town moderator, both major political parties have agreed to extend the polling hours at the town polling place by one hour, to 8 p.m. to make up for a closure this morning.

An announcement from the Attorney General's Office is expected shortly, after the required court approval."

LUN
--------------------------------------------

Appalled, Ref the pin worn by Sarah Palin. I believe you covered the subject well.

[Rick Ballard]

Mel,

I don't buy a 15% 'defection' rate but if crossover hits 10% then Boxer will lose due to low Dem turnout. There's also a potential for split ticket voting, giving Moonbeam the governor job (no great value to that one) and Boxer early retirement.

If I were writing a 'surprise' scenario I would note Latino defections and disappearance in LA. It's the same problem which afflicts Chicago and Philly - Census will reveal next month that there just aren't as many people in certain Blue Hell districts as there were votes in 2008.

[Captain Hate]

I want Sara to be able celebrate in state victories just like the rest of us.

[Jeff]

given that most working adults don't have time for polls every poll should be suspect this time around ...
in one working one stay at home household which one is most likely to be a liberal ?

[macphisto]

"Isn't that basically what happened in 1960? Cook County waited for instructions as to how many votes they needed to deliver to Kennedy?"

i was going to say that back in the day Mayor Daley just held the vote count until they knew how many votes they needed.

it would not surprise me for the polls to be out of whack in California; as i said a few days ago, the polls generally skew over-Democrat in CA and have done for as long as i can remember back into the 80s. one can only hope. it's going to take a much wider variance than normal to turn both races, though.

[Thomas Collins]

POTUS tries to drum up the urban format radio station vote for Harry Reid. See LUN.

[centralcal]

Mel: I didn't follow the link re: Sac Bee.

However, there are Democrat mayors in small agricultural towns (Mexican) who have supported nearly all of the Republican candidates - water, water, water. A chunk of their voting block (Mexican) will follow suit because they are desperate for jobs.

That said, however, the big cities in coastal enclaves are liberal to their very core and as radical as they come, so . . . I basically have no clue.

I do not trust the Sacramento Bee on ANYTHING!!!!! All the Bee newspapers in CA are McClatchy propaganda rags. Canceled mine - they endorsed every damned Democrat no matter how awful.

[Mike Huggins]

Regarding that SacBee poll, "Please, please, please be true!" But, I'm still pessimistic.

[JM Hanes]

Sara:

"no word why he didn't just bring an "enemy" to be a taste tester."

ROTFLMAO!

Dave MA:

"I'd give up my entire ballot if I could trade it for one anti-Barney vote."

I sometimes wish my neck of the woods weren't so predictably Republican, so that I could vote against someone every now and then, myself. Half the Republicans here don't even have challengers. I'm like the flip side of Sara, having to live vicariously by supporting insurgents elsewhere.

[Sue]

I'm seeing reports that turnout is huge in California with the younger crowd. The pot initiative is driving the high turnout.

[Porchlight]

I do not see how Jim Hoft's report could irresponsible.

Well, first, Hoft didn't link to any source regarding the school lockdown or the closing of the polling location. The Union Ledger story he linked didn't have any information about either of those things - at least when I read it. I even did ctrl-F on the page to make sure I wasn't missing anything.

Don't get me wrong - for locals, I'm sure all the decisions that were made were the right ones, and they needed to know about the shooting. My problem was with the phrasing Hoft used, which was suggestive of something other than what happened. Tying "polling location" to "shooting" made it sound like political violence, which it wasn't. Sorry if I wasn't clear.

[DebinNC]

Politico article from Jan. 09 about Obama expecting to charm 4-5 Repubs into voting for Porkulus. A West Wing aide says the PA, OH, and MI reps better think twice about bucking the popular Prez. I bet those threatened folks will feel especially fine tonight.

[Rob Crawford]

I'm seeing reports that turnout is huge in California with the younger crowd. The pot initiative is driving the high turnout.

Ba-dum-ching!

[Mike Huggins]

centralcal - Right on. The other thing is even if Boxbrain and Moonbeam lose, we're still stuck with the Dem-controlled legislature and, I'm guessing here, Prop 23 probably not passing due to all the "the evil oil companies want to kill you" ads of late (i hope I'm wrong about that, too).

[Sara (Pal2Pal)]

Here in the Inland Empire of So. Calif., both San Diego and LA TV markets, we have been subjected to 10 Brown ads charging Whitman as an abuser to one decent Whitman ad. And I've only seen one Fiorina ad one time compared to the Boxer ad that runs several times a day charging Fiorina is waaaaaaaaaaaaay to extreme for Calif. She's pro-life doncha know and HP sent 30,000 jobs out of the country, we know because the ad is all those who got laid off as a result or so the actors say.

[hit and run]

Quittin' time.

Off to vote.

Only remaining question is: who gets my write-in vote for Soil and Water Conservation District Supervisor?

[hrtshpdbox]

Interesting to see Coons complaining of low turnout in the one county where his victory is supposed to be secured (O'Donnell has heavy support in the other two counties). Delaware would be the ultimate triumph this year, though it's perhaps too much to hope for - still, if the margin is only 5 points or so that would be saying something on its own.

Senate comes down to Raese and Rossi, I'd guess - win those two and the GOP should get to 51.

[Sara (Pal2Pal)]

Oh and don't take Prop 19 going down (if it does) as a sign that Californians are against legalizing pot. Pot is already legal. 19 is legislation to tax and regulate it. Lots of pro-pot people are voting no because they see permitting taxing it as just one more way for the state gov't to get their greedy hands in more pockets.

[Janet the tea-vangelist!]

daddy!

[JM Hanes]

Thomas Collins:

Reading the President's emblematic last ditch pitch, so to speak, was a a real pleasure. The non-concession concession speech I'm looking forward to most is the one Obama is slated to deliver at 1:00PM tomorrow.

[centralcal]

Mike H: It has been all over talk radio here for days that Prop 23 will be in the courts no matter what the outcome. The Attorney General (wonder who that is????) approved the language on the ballots in Fresno County - except it was language that was incorrect, having been overturned by a judge.

It is complicated, but let us just say, that it now calls ALL the votes pro or con into question and may end up having to be re-voted on. As they say . . . developing.

[Neo]

pretty much all white ??
A toasted "Cracker" ?

[centralcal]

Here is an ABC link to the Prop 23 screw up.

[JM Hanes]

Well, hit, if we're in the same district, vote for Toby Bost. And don't forget to vote yes on barring felons from running for Sheriff! I hear that the ex-jailbird GOTV machine has been working over time.

[Melinda Romanoff]

Rick-

I'm not buying the 15% either, but I AM willing to be surprised.

[jimmyk]

The pot initiative is driving the high turnout.

That can't be good, can it? Unless they're too stoned to figure out what to vote for besides the pot issue.

[Thomas Collins]

JMH, I don't know whether you were still in the Boston area to see any part of the Tom Menino era, but even if you weren't, you may enjoy the article in the LUN describing the Boston mayor's GOTV efforts.

[Captain Hate]

The non-concession concession speech I'm looking forward to most is the one Obama is slated to deliver at 1:00PM tomorrow.

"I don't have all the facts but the voters acted stupidly. The car is deeper in the ditch than ever and is backing further up. I said if you want to keep your representative, you could; but people get wee-weed up when they're scared. I'm the only thing between you and the pitchforks. And too many people are hooked on Slurpees. Michelle will deliver an anti-7/11 nutrition report so that everybody can be as toned as she is."

[Sue]

hrtshpdbox,

I'm wondering if that is a head fake by Coons. Wanting to beat her by larger numbers than what they are seeing at the moment? I sure hope not. Go Christine go!!!

[Clarice]

"Census will reveal next month that there just aren't as many people in certain Blue Hell districts as there were votes in 2008."

For sure there were more votes there then there were people in 2008.

[Extraneus]

From the DemTears twitter feed I linked earlier:

DavidCornDC True consolation. RT @JCBua: Just remember what ever happens to Obama tonight Grover Cleveland lost 116 House seats in 1894.

[Sue]

Pot is legal in California? I didn't know that. The talking heads on tv don't know it either.

[centralcal]

Sue: I think perhaps Sara is referring to medical marijuana.

[Sara (Pal2Pal)]

I voted YES on Prop 23 Stop the Global Warming Final Solutions Act. 'Nuff said.

[Stephanie]

To answer a question posed earlier this glorious day

I comment at Ace's some, read regularly. My daughter reads and never comments. I usually don't get on the computer til later in the evening and it takes a couple of hours just to read my bookmarked sites and catch up on the news and comments.

[cindyk]

Just an aside, but voting today in St. Paul, MN I took my straight line republican vote ticket to the machine to place it in the counter. I was curious of the turnout in my precinct and took note of the counter before I put in my ballot. The counter was at 203 before I put in my ballot, and 203 after. I spoke immediately to the poll worker there, and was reassured that the counter had already "anticipated" my ballot in its count. Called the Secretary of State's Office and spoke to someone who didn't seem overly concerned but did take my name and contact number. Now that I am home I read that this is happening in several voting precincts in MN but that the Secretary of State's Office has not heard any complaints. OH GREAT! Here we go again, welcome Governor "Crazy Pants" Dayton!

[Captain Hate]

I wish maryrose would chime in; I've been thinking that by Kucinich distancing himself from the donks, he may be cutting his own throat. When the Census is figured in, Ohio will lose 2 seats with NE Ohio being a likely place to lop one off. Of course I'd prefer for him to lose outright today....

[Sara (Pal2Pal)]

AK Senate Report, w Image: Write-In Campaign Generating Res
ults

[Captain Hate]

Stephanie, do you post at AoS as "Stephanie"?

[Sue]

C-cal,

Oh. Well Prop 19 is to legalize growing and possessing small amounts of pot for anyone over 21. Which sounds to me like pot is illegal at the moment or they wouldn't need the vote.

[Sara (Pal2Pal)]

Yes medical marijuana which is sold thru the cooperatives and is grown by co-op members, which in turn eliminates the Mexican drug cartels and the associated problems. They (the state) want that tax money.

[DrJ]

Pot is legal in California?

Almost. Possession of small amounts is now an infraction, and not a criminal offense. And yes, medical marijuana is legal.

[Sara (Pal2Pal)]

Sue: It is about taxes, not pot.

[Stephanie]

Yes. Usually make it on the ONT. Rum and I have a thing about Disney and try to keep each other updated on latest trips, newest stuff going on there.

Actually, I post at all sites as Stephanie. Came out from anonymity after 08.

[Sue]

Sara,

I don't live there so I am only going by what I've heard on tv, but that isn't what I've heard Prop 19 is. Except for the taxing part. They do want the revenues from legalizing pot.

[Mike Huggins]

cc - Thanks for that link.

Wow,
Corrected Quote: "This is what we call in legal terms is (sic) 'harmless error,'" said ABC-30 political analyst Tony Capozzi. (Is that name Italian for "head cheese?")