Fair Enough

Prof. Ray Fair of Yale has been refining econometric predictions of Presidential votes for years.  The Times tells us that he has offered his first stab at the 2012 elections, and he thinks the economy will be recovering enough for Obama to sail to victory.

I will offer two caveats.  First, this is not a Guns and Butter model, it is a Butter model, with no variables for foreign policy.  It called George Bush's winning margin in 2004, but the race was closer than predicted.  If Afghanistan is a quagmire in 2012 (and what are the odds?), that may hurt Obama in a way the model overlooks.

Secondly, in his discussion of the model I sense a trend here that I can't explain, but which ought to worry Democrats:

Looking at Table 3, the ex post error for 2008 for the presidential election is 1.5 percentage points (Obama got 53.7 percent and was predicted to get 55.2 percent).

For the 2008 on-term House election, the ex post error is 1.9 percentage points (the Democrats got 55.5 percent and were predicted to get 57.4 percent).

For the 2010 mid-term House election, the ex post error is 2.9 percentage points (the Democrats got 45.9 percent and were predicted to get 48.8 percent).

Democrats underperformed the last two cycles.  If that is not just statistical noise, it may reflect something fundamental (national security?) that will drag them down in 2012.

The model is here, so anyone can plug in variables and see the interplay of economic performance and the Presidential election.  The Times included this:

His model forecasts real annualized growth in gross domestic product of 3.69 percent for the first three quarters of 2012. A survey of leading economists by Blue Chip Economic Indicators shows an average forecast of 3.2 percent growth in real G.D.P. in 2012, while the Congressional Budget Office estimates 3.4 percent. Plug either of these estimates into his election algorithm and the result is the same: President Obama wins.

In the quarter that just ended, however, the economy was growing at a rate of just 2 percent. If that sluggish pace continued — or, more ominously, if there were a double-dip recession or a steep plunge in the markets — that forecast would change.

Under those circumstances, regardless of other issues or the identity of President Obama’s opponent, the model shows the president losing.

Time will tell.

THE CAKE IS BAKING:

Here are the three model inputs:

 

growth rate of real per capita GDP in the first 3 quarters of 2012 (annual rate) (G)

growth rate of the GDP deflator in the first 15 quarters of the Obama administration, 2009:1-2012:3 (annual rate) (P)

number of quarters in the first 15 quarters of the Obama administration in which the growth rate of real per capita GDP is greater than 3.2 percent at an annual rate (Z)

Seven of those quarters have already passed, I presume (Obviously, the fourth quarter of 2012 is not realized as of Nov 2012, so I assume he uses the first quarter of 2009 for a total of fifteen).

From this GDP chart (and table) I discern that Obama has scored two quarters above 3.2%.

The implicit price deflator is at the bottom of this table.

Comments

[Donald]

I'll never forget my first port call in the Navy. As we were about to go back to sea, I was getting all of the department muster reports. As we were getting ready to pull anchor, the number was about 850. I was new, and an e-1. Well, just as we were leaving the x/o came into our office and asked for the moron muster report guy. My shipmates pointed to me, who at exactly that moment had me feet on my desk, drinking coffee and marveling at how many guys were missing. He asked me what the hell was going on. I said, well, the mumbers..., he cut me off. "I have no confidence in those numbers" said Capt. Groman.

I think there's an analogy here somewhere.

[matt]

One thing the analysis does not take into account is how heartily this guy is disliked by the majority now. Keep on allowing the TSA to terrorize travelers and Holder to screw up cases while pushing for amnesty, Barry! Eventually the whole country will hate the guy.

[Donald]

Matt, your posts on the TSA thread yesterday are a must read for the dim bulbs who are herded through this country like the cattle the federal government thinks we are.

[Clarice]

Bob Strauss' way of testing the waters--going to the best dinner in town, ordering a Denver omelet and asking the patrons what they thought--still strikes me as a more sound method /

[A Bean Counter's bean counter]

Seven of eight former commanders of U.S. nuclear forces have urged the Senate to approve the treaty.

But five Republicans on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee said in a recent report that New START was "a bad deal." They added that U.S. military leaders had made assumptions about the pact - including that Russia will honor it - that are "optimistic in the extreme."

Meanwhile, the conservative Heritage Foundation's grass-roots lobbying arm is targeting Republican senators with mailings warning that the treaty "benefits Russia's interests, not ours."

Retired Lt. Gen. Dirk Jameson, the former deputy commander of U.S. nuclear forces, said Friday that it was "quite puzzling to me why all of this support [for New START] . . . is ignored. I don't know what that says about the trust that people have and the confidence they have in our military."

The New START treaty would reduce the two nuclear giants' stockpiles of long-range, deployed weapons by as much as 30 percent, leaving each country with about 1,550 warheads. President Obama said Thursday that he had "no higher national security priority" during the lame-duck session than having it ratified."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/19/AR2010111906555.html

What's the GOP Beef? Nuttin'. They just want Obama to have no credit on his portfolio of accomplishments.

Oh wait!..The Plausible Denialists do have something in their arrow quiver...............only 7 of 8 former Commanders of Nuclear Forces like the Treaty.

Cover for Republicans is rapidly becoming a loincloth and pasties.

[narciso]

That was truly a wise man, Clarice, pity they are so few of them, anymore

[PD]

I don't know what that says about the trust that people have and the confidence they have in our military.

Straw man. There's also the matter of trusting the Russians.

[Rick Ballard]

Clarice,

I've been thinking about a new SCAM enterprise - Re-epicyling Centers. For a modest and reasonable fee we would offer the abilities of a team of credentialed experts who would perform the necessary spurious correlative analysis to correct models producing output which has diverged from vulgar reality to an extent which makes their continued use problematic. The market potential is huge - the Fair model's slippage to a 2.9% error discrepancy provides an excellent illustration.

I would also note that Fair's analysis does not include back-casting inclusive of an 80 year debt event. Examination of the decline in Hoover's fortune from victory in '28 to defeat in '32 may provide more illumination than trying to determine the probable validity of a slipping (again) model.

[Chubby]

((What's the GOP Beef? Nuttin'. They just want Obama to have no credit on his portfolio of accomplishments.))

You're confused; that was your lot's game plan against Bush. Maybe one day when you people are rational enough to stop projecting your own agendas onto everyone else, you'll do better in elections, governance, maintaining power, and understanding the people, economics, the Constitution, etc.

[Jack is Back!]

What about unknown factors such as a terrorist attack or Iran getting a nuke with missle deployment capability of the Nobel committee doing something really stupid like creating a new prize category - Fashionable Belts and awarding MO her own prize?

Then you have Johnny Depp. What if he decides to endorse Palin? What happens to the model if Olberman comes out of the closet as a CIA spy on West Side liberals or if Murdoch buys the New York Times, resizes the paper as a tabloid and starts selling them in supermarkets?

There are more unknown unknowns that I believe will have more of an impact than the economy all parody, satire and stupidity aside.

[Danube of Thought]

"Seven of eight former commanders of U.S. nuclear forces..."

There is no such command. Many flag and general officers, in addition to SAC and Strategic Command, command nuclear forces. These include, for example, CinCPac, CinCPacFleet, CinCLantFleet, and a host of others.

[Uncle BigBad]

Some years ago (before the Vietnam War), some wise man (I've forgotten who) said:

"The United States has never lost a war nor won a treaty."

[Jack is Back!]

DoT,

Cleo is getting his information from people even less informed than he is - the media. After these guys retire they go on the boards of DoD contractors who always have different irons in the fire and hire out their former Generals and Admirals on a regular basis. It don't mean squat since START is not a military strategy or tactic but a political one that Obama and the democrats what to make look "milrary" or "national security". Bunk and Junk.

[bgates]

There's also the matter of trusting the Russians.

Personally I think it's as obvious that Vladimir Putin has our best interests at heart as it is that Obama does.

[matt]

The other part of the equation is the sheer decrepitude of our nuclear deterrent. Almost all work on the Reliable Replacement Warhead has been stopped, and of the 5,000+ warheads in the inventory, 4,200 are in storage according to WikiCIA.

Rule #1 is a credible deterrent. From Obumbles actions and statements, this no longer exists.The world is less safe than it was prior to his inauguration.

[Thomas Collins]

Testing posting with an iPad (not mine).

[bgates]

Incidentally, I'm not quite sure what the annual growth rate of the GDP deflator is or how it's measured, but if they can drive it negative enough, Obama ought to be able to get reelected with a better than unanimous vote.

On the other hand, having reviewed the model, I believe I now know how the 1988 election turned out.

[Jack is Back!]

Ray Fair's CV is at the LUN.

Look at all his research and publications. I wonder how his baseball and college football model's worked out? If he is so accurate why not just have him pick the BCS championship game. Because using his model, it would be Fordham v. Carlilse Institute, thats why:)

[sbw]

To argue x percent of former military hoohah's support the treaty sounds like the same "science" used to promote global warmening canards.

If the treaty makes sense, show me how. I'm willing to be convinced. . . but not by rhetorical BS.

[sbw]

And while you are at it, Dr. Fair, show why political science deserves to be called a science.

[PD]

Personally I think it's as obvious that Vladimir Putin has our best interests at heart as it is that Obama does.

Perhaps even more so.

[narciso]

well he's not stupid enough, to think Communism worked, he's a nationalist like Nicholas 1, or Alexander 11

[Rick Ballard]

Could the slippage in Fair's model be caused by QE? Goldman's Hatzius places QE impact at .5% per trillion. The Fed has already stuffed $2.7T into the economy and it may well be that the electorate doesn't regard the 1.6% boost in GDP attributable to Fed stuffing as being what is colloquially known as "real" (as distinct from BEA "real").

[Ming]

I don't give two shits whether Edwards speaks like me.
=================

[Barry Dauphin]

I put "0" in for growth rate of real per capita GDP in the first 3 quarters of 2012 (annual rate) (G) and the model says the Dems get over 53% of vote. That does not sound right.

[narciso]

You forgot to carry the one

[Stephanie]

The model I look at for determining economic vitality is the NASCAR model. If the stands are full, the economy is doing well. If the stands are not full, the economy sucks. Right now, the stands are not full and the ticket prices have been slashed to unbelievable lows.

Why NASCAR instead of football, baseball or hockey? Plumbers, Carpenters, Auto Mechanics, Farmers. If they have no disposable income...

[mockmook]

Is unemployment factored in?

Even if you have 6% growth (we wish), if unemployment is near 10%, I don't see Obama being re-elected (unless we nominate McCain).

[Clarice]

*Diner* (not dinner on Strauss.

RickClarice,

I've been thinking about a new SCAM enterprise - Re-epicyling Centers. For a modest and reasonable fee we would offer the abilities of a team of credentialed experts who would perform the necessary spurious correlative analysis to correct models producing output which has diverged from vulgar reality to an extent which makes their continued use problematic. The market potential is huge - the Fair model's slippage to a 2.9% error discrepancy provides an excellent illustration.
Rick, you darling. What a splendid idea. Perfection.

A friend told me why a very, very , very rich man said he never used investment advisors:"If they know how to make money, why are't they doing it for themselves."
And so, I am afraid it is with Prof Fair. If he had this magnificent statistical talent why isn't he beating out the Aga Khan and Soros on the World's richest lists?
I have watched with amusement people charting markets for the same reason. if you really have the system, use it.

[Stephanie]

Clarice, you'd think Prof Fair would be found on one of those "Millionaire Investing" seminars that are all the rage on late night teevee.

Maybe you should approach AlGore with a late night telemarketing pitch for carbon credits hosted on the green channel.

[Rick Ballard]

Barry,

You have to change the number of quarters of growth at +3.2% in order to really affect the win/lose proposition. In fact, the model gives him a win with a 1.5% rate and just one more quarter (out of eight remaining) above 3.2%. I can't see a 1.5/1.42/2 mix as a winning combination but it ain't my model.

[Jack is Back!]

Stephanie,

I live in NASCAR country, just up the road from Daytona. Volusia County has one of the highest unemployment rates in Florida. So much of the employment here revolves around NASCAR, racing, auto parts, technical institutes, etc.

With the 500 coming up in February along with Bike Week lets see if there is renewed confidence under a Young Guns economy of half-economy.

[Doncha love recycled tea-bags]

"There's also the matter of trusting the Russians."

"Trust, but verify"

--RWR--

Wait ! Did he say 'verify' or 'scarify'?

We don't got no global warming if we can find some crackpot 'Intelligent Design' grajiate from the University of End Times.

[Hopeful Romantic]

Is there just ONE honest broker here who can buck the tide of ignorance and dispel this
artificial opposition to the START Treaty?

A show of balls, if you please

[bgates]

A show of balls, if you please

We're reluctant to show them to you, given that you've been asking to suck on them for over a year now.

[Stephanie]

JiB, I know where you are, I am looking at a vacation at Cinnamon Beach in March or April. I love watching the golfers hit into the wind on #8 (?) on the Hammock course. ;)

We usually get a condo overlooking that hole for the giggles. It's too bad a stay at CB doesn't provide a golf opportunity on that course unless you book through Ginn, which I won't, due to their financial state not to mention I get the condo much cheaper through the owner. I suspect that my giggling would be short lived once I played that hole. Oh, well.

Talladega was not full, nor was Atlanta, nor was Homestead today, and the ticket prices are discounted 50% in some cases. Those were the last three races for the Chase! I don't follow racing other than what is reported on ESPN and switching to them during the commercials during football games (I'm the remote hog), but I don't believe they had a single sell out this year.

[mockmook]

So, those plucky "underdogs", the USA's WNT, beat plucky Italy in the first leg of a plucky playoff to see who will go to the Women's World Cup this coming Summer.

The pictured Alex Morgan used her poise and confidence to score the game's only goal in extra time.

The deciding game will be this coming Saturday, in Chicago, at 2PM ET, viewable on ESPN3.

http://www.espn3.com/

[Stephanie]

Mockmook, the Italians are at a firm disadvantage in that the USA only needs a tie and 0-0 will do - the Italians must win by 2. The format is "cumulative goals" not win/loss.

[metrofab]

cant compute without foreign policy-aid that is how O and b got in there. they vote on tje foreign aid entitlements like health care just before presidential election. 100s billions a year five year budgets. Osays U can pay with Ur social security. congress wont stop hm?

[Jack is Back!]

But if Italy scores & the USA doesn't it goes to penalty kicks because of away goals tied. Go USA.

BTW, Title 9 has been very good for us but now the rest of the world is catching up.

[maryrose]

Congress needs more time to discuss and debate the Start Treaty. Once again we have the slamma jamma WH trying to cram everything in just because Obama's trip overseas was such a dud. They are looking for a foreign policy win at the expense of careful consideration of the treaty. Not on our dime buster!

[Hopeful Romantic]

"We're reluctant to show them to you"

I understand. If you want to stuff your
sock into the makeshift cod-piece it may
bolster your feeling of confidence.

Genuine confidence is way over rated, btw (as you have learned)

[MarkJ]

My fantasy:

Obama take his second oath of office in January 2013...only to face veto-proof GOP majorities in the House and Senate and 3/4 of the states under Republican executive and legislative control.

And the electoral gods will laugh......

[Stephanie]

Excellent commentary on the field of battle in the US at LUN

Carthago delenda est.

I accept that's the intellectually lazy response, but I have to work with what you can understand.

My preference is more of a “Thucydides account of the no-mercy overthrow of the oligarchs at Corcyra” type of historical reference.

Either way, I am confident you can deduce the “tone”of my rebuttal.

Realizing that you are losing your grip on the public schools, that the youth that propelled the boy-king to victory have abandoned you, that the bitter, blue collar white workers are now Tea Party grandmas and grandpas, that you have lost control of the federal checkbook and the legislative calendar,

now you want to petition for peace?

now you cry out for civility and consensus?

I have a message for you:

Go. To. Hell.

Read it all. It's worth it.

[Hopeful Romantic]

All these Tea=Baggers and not a ball amongst them.

Hmmmmmmmmmmm. 'Ball envy' seems to be an opportunity for one of you entrepreneurs to score some shekels

[DrJ]

Cleo, here's one for you:

Balls!

[Hopeful Romantic]

Stop dancing and prancing, Dr Jack-off. It's time to 'man up' and answer the fucking call for balls.

[Stephanie]

Meh. Balls must be the journolist talking point of the week.

Cleo, I believe the message that was to be spread far and wide, though, was

"If Hillary gives Obama one of her cahones, they'd both have two."

I know it's Progmath, but get with the program!!!

[Hopeful Romantic]

"Cover for Republicans is rapidly becoming a loincloth"

I'd say an inch square loincloth is more than sufficient coverage.

[Barry Dauphin]

Rick,

Thanks. And I agree with your point.

[Rob Crawford]

Looks like 'cleo's into the sacrimental peyote again.

[bgates]

"If Hillary gives Obama one of her cahones, they'd both have two."

It's Cleo's feeling that if you spread the balls around, it's good for Cleo.

[Wuzzagrunt]

Jeeze, can't economists just be satisfied with making incorrect predictions on economic performance?

I'd say Obama's chances of reelection depend, significantly, on whom the Rs nominate. Given the anti-Republican tailwind of '08, the in-the-tank media operation, and the weak, incoherent McCain campaign, Obama could be seen as a marginal candidate. Anybody not named Dennis Kucinich could have beat McCain by a similar margin. That Obama's now got a record to run on will not be seen as an advantage.

[Rick Ballard]

Stephanie,

I'm betting that we'll see Corcyra played out against the EU oligarchs first. Ireland has now joined Greece, with Portugal and Spain standing impatiently in line. The IMF involvement, aside from being a recipe for failure, should raise hackles here in the US. Why are US taxpayers bailing out the idiocy of "everything is free and every layabout has a right to the front of the line" in EUrofantasyland?

The veneer on the facade is peeling fairly quickly now and I don't believe that B+ BOzo has a clue.

[Janet]

We're always hearing about the evil SUVs....now there are evil electric vehicles!

Beware!!! Electric vehicles trying to take out bicycles!

From the article - "A Vancouver cyclist is recovering after being struck by an electric vehicle during an event to promote an around-the-world carbon-free race."
via Tim Blair

[Hopeful Romantic]

Tea-Baggers saving money on loincloth, an inch at a time.

[PD]

I'm surprised more people with green sympathies haven't noticed that electric vehicles are powered by electricity.

Hence, likely charged with power generated at coal-fired power plants.

[PD]

Maybe not *that* surprised.

[Colorado Chili]

"Hence, likely charged with power generated at coal-fired power plants."

Regressive as you are, I should think that would result in a tiny orgasm.

[mockmook]

The format is "cumulative goals" not win/loss.

Posted by: Stephanie | November 21, 2010 at 05:40 PM

I know, but it seems so much sweeter to note that the USA "won" the first game 1-0.

Thank Shiva/Obama (the real reason he went to Europe was to emanate his penumbra over this game and secure the blessings of "victory").

[Janet]

Here's another funny post from Tim Blair -
"You couldn’t make this up:

Covered from head to toe in a burqa, with just a slit through which to see, a Muslim woman charged with making a false complaint to police now argues she has been a victim of mistaken identity."

Well, funny in kind of a sad way...that we are being made out as fools. We need Jack Bauer to yell, "Take off the d*#n burqa!"

[PD]

Regressive as you are, I should think that would result in a tiny orgasm.

I seem to have lost the decoder ring that would make sense of that. My loss.

[boris]

maybe mr troll is hoping for a tiny climax from reading comments here ... would explain why mrs troll now sleeps with shrek ...

[PD]

Yeah, I admit I don't get the mindset of camping out on a blog generating serial incoherences.

[boris]

Just be glad we can't see what it's doing ..

[Hopeful Romantic]

"I don't get the mindset of camping out on a blog generating serial incoherences."

We just can't have so many poster children
for Redemptive Self-Awareness. Can someone please dial down the denial and delusion?

You are making the title meaningless in the face of overwhelming demographics and role confusion.

[Extraneus]

Pessimistic Fed to slash growth forecasts

The US Federal Reserve will slash its growth forecasts and predict higher unemployment when it releases updated economic projections this week.

The Fed will release the latest forecasts made by members of its rate-setting open market committee on Tuesday, alongside the minutes of their November meeting, giving a complete picture of why they launched a new $600bn round of asset purchases.

The revised forecasts will show how the Fed became much more pessimistic over the summer and also highlight fears among a few members of the FOMC that some of today’s 9.6 per cent unemployment rate is structural and will take years to cure.

And a new president, Prof. Fair.

[narciso]

Speaking of delusional thinking, a Politico piece on Angle, with many anonymous sources, doing the 'dirt drop' on Angle with only one
notable source, a NRSC apparachik

[Janet]

Jane mentioned Lileks being on the cruise, so here is the Lileks link. A great site to poke around...he can be so clever.

[Janet]

David Gregory is worried a Republican Congress might hurt Obama on the international stage....

Remember when Gregory worried about that for President George W. Bush?

[Janet]

(Sorry about all the random links...I'm just trying to change the topic of conversation from testicles to...well,...um...er...just about anything.)

[Cecil Turner]

Ya gotta wonder why the Dems are in such a hurry to get a crappy treaty ratified (now . . . they weren't in much of a rush back in April when it was signed). Obama says it's all about politics. Maybe he's right (but not the way he implies).

[Danube of Thought]

That young soccer lady looks might plucky to me. Think she'd have anything to do with ol' Danube?

[narciso]

You know this START gambit didn't even work on the West Wing, when they wrote the scripts

[Janet]

Here is a good picture of Michelle Obama to keep in mind the next time she is telling us what to eat. (saw at directorblue)

[mockmook]

DoT,

Probably depends on how ol' ol' Danube is.

Also, how much poise and confidence do you have?

[Clarice]

That's her inventing the very notion of farmer's markets and she did it right outside the WH. (I don't recall ever hearing of that market again, but that's not surprising because the city has many outdoor farmer's markets and had them long before MO even heard of arugala.)

[mockmook]

Moochelle doesn't look like she plays much soccer. This is a soccer blog isn't it?

[Charlie (Colorado)]

Tea-Baggers saving money on loincloth, an inch at a time.

Nipping at the cooking sherry again?

Don't worry, relapse is part of recovery.

One day at a time.

[Got enough of that.]

Jane, tell Lileks he is so good he makes me cry.
================

[temple]

O also sold your social security to help GG amd ff overseas. you o you o........its just a global network its not likethey stare through your head,pain,stroke,cause accidents etc to torture congress americans to give free momey and sellimg those americans who o is okay.....

[bgates]

That's a good question, Cecil. Reid's not particularly adroit at shepherding legislation through the chamber; could it just be a screwup?

April was not a busy month, though they were gearing up for 2nd-generation criminal Senator Dodd's financial deform bill at the end of the month.

[Porchlight]

MOO is all over the Disney Channel these days with her little PSAs about food and exercise.

Just overheard in the other room:

7yo daughter to 4yo daughter: "Don't look at the TV unless you want to see Mrs. Obama."

[seconds pass]

7yo daughter: "Okay, you can look now."

4yo daughter: "Whew."

[Gmax]

elections have consequences, where have we heard that before? Was it "john the election is over, I won."

Having to deal with a Republican House and a much larger minority in the Senate, where one can no longer woo a single Republican to claim bipartisanship, is going to be tough on ole Zero, who never showed much adroitness with his own merry band of thieves.

Maybe the oceans have started rising again?

[bgates]

Porch, say what you will about the first lady, she had a heck of a week last week, and she looks pretty good so far tonight.

[bgates]

Hold on, that's not Michelle Obama. That's Michael Vick.

Honest mistake.

[daddy]

Speaking of plucky young ladies, I pounded beers this evening with a plucky Dusseldorfian Opera singer in Cologne.

There I was, minding my own business reading at a table in some crowded beerhall, when in come 2 Deutsch boys needing a place to sit. I offer them chairs and immediately they start dumping on Sarah Palin. Pair of Socialists; opinionated, fervent, woefully uninformed, but the beer was so darn good that I enjoyed providing an education over rollicking bar-talk. Not bad boys, just stupid.

But then enters their friends; a non-political guy and a pleasantly plump brown haired gal with a good smile and decent English. After blabbing a bit I find she is some fairly well know Opera gal that sings Wagner. I pulled out the old Twain line, "Wagner's music is not as bad as it sounds", and got a very honest laugh out of that from the bunch. (They had never heard it!). Then did the explanation of the Yogi Berra comment, "It ain't over till the fat lady sings", and somehow made it complementary enough of her that she suggested a round of schnappes for the bunch of us which I figure is a good sign from an Opera gal. Then in between getting the boys to dump on the East Germans and Communism, then the Greeks, the Spaniards, the Italians, the Irish, and everybody else in the EU, plus the Islam's, figured I had made good headway on the "Ain't Socialism great" political argument, so switched to discussion of "What's Opera Doc?" by Bugs Bunny. Another Home Run!

Anyhow, if you're ever in Cologne and need to get past second base with a Bellowing Valkyrie, that's how you do it.

So here's my ">http://www.google.de/imgres?imgurl=http://www.ia-ac.com/repository.dat/images/tn_00000097_1.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.ia-ac.com/MariaRadner%2Bbiography%2Bde&usg=__2wAeJibdvxPwDQqiRJ4sjYoAjL8=&h=209&w=209&sz=10&hl=de&start=1&zoom=1&itbs=1&tbnid=pkVdzaD_fNUmoM:&tbnh=106&tbnw=106&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dyoutube%2Bmaria%2Bradner%26hl%3Dde%26sa%3DG%26gbv%3D2%26tbs%3Disch:1"> Schnappes drinking partner from this evening, and tho' I dislike Opera, here she is ">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixA9UwwWElY&feature=related"> banging out some tune at a performance just 2 nights back. (She's the one with the chair.)
Anyone know what she's singing about BTW?

[bgates]

Maybe the oceans have started rising again?

That suggests an interesting climate science question: How many Washington Democrats have to wet themselves in fear of Darryl Issa to cause a measurable rise in the sea level?

[Janet]

We only get the Sunday WaPo now & it is still once too many times a week. Today they had a rave review of a new Kayne West album.
Here is an album with a pornographic cover (a painting of a naked woman with a tail having sex with him -I presume- while he is drinking & smiling) & parental advisory on it...but the review uses words like - petulant genius, thrilling album, pure pop bravura, truly epic stuff, his brilliance.
I just don't get how the Style section can peddle this crap....while the Metro section laments lost & wasted youth? There is such a disconnect.

[Danube of Thought]

Gee, and I can remember how the Style section once soared to such dizzying heights under Sally Quinn.

[narciso]

My Spretchen ist nacht Deutsch, daddy, what kind of schnappes, reverie from my college
days

[Ignatz]

--I just don't get how the Style section can peddle this crap....while the Metro section laments lost & wasted youth?--

Janet, it's simple;
"the prince of this world cometh"

[Clarice]

She's lovely, daddy..and thanks for all the complimentary stuff today.

[Janet]

Porchlight,
We do have influence!...I can hear my husband in the other room laughing while looking around Lileks site. I read him a lot when I first started poking around the internet. He was a big reason I finally realized what duds the old guard were in the papers & on tv. There was such talent out there...why was anyone still listening to Mark Shields or reading the same tired old pundits?...why was I?

[Janet]

True Ignatz.

[Gmax]

Mark Shields? What gig is his corpulence holding down these days? As disgusting a liberal as Colmes, without the charm... sarc off

[narciso]

Much of this wasn't available until the intertubes made it possible, Janet, the Post
really has gone down hill, since I read it back during my college days

[narciso]

He's been holding down the NR on dead tree
spine column, while Steyn has been away

[Janet]

Great story daddy...how cool is it to meet people & then get to see them perform on youtube!

[daddy]

A Sour Apple schnappes was the answer narciso.

A big discussion ensued about what type and they decided a clear looking schnappes was what was called for, but I was game for anything. The Sour Apple was a good call tho. Scrumptious!

And got to see the boys swap out a keg tonight. T'was a thing of beauty to watch.

A big wooden hogshead is the keg, about the size of a clothes dryer. It's hoisted up to about neck level, and as it starts going empty, a 2 by far is placed under it to tilt it and get the last few dozen glasses out. Then when they get every last drop out, they pull out the 2 by 4, push the empty keg away on ball-decking, hit a button and it sinks into the celler on an elevator platform. Up comes the next keg in return, slides over the ball-decking into proper positioning, a guy takes a mallet and pounds a metal spout into the new keg, and voila, in seconds he's pouring another. Whole thing took only 60 seconds maximum. What a great show! ">http://www.germany.info/Vertretung/usa/bilder/05__bis__10__Themen/en/07__Culture/05__German__Traditions/05__Beer/K_C3_B6bes__K_C3_B6lsch__dpa,property=Inhaltsbild.jpg"> Here's the waiter we had tonight.